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good thing that the first primary debate to election night is only one-third of our entire lives each cycle
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Sep 29, 2023 20:42
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
hahahahaha what no that’s not even close to true In an off-year election, yes, the out party has the advantage, but during the Presidential years that advantage doesn’t exist, the President has a massive advantage from media attention and being in the news every day Like, since 1952, the incumbent President has won 7 out of 11 times. It’s not a sure thing, but you’re casting it here as an uphill battle and it’s not Biden absolutely has the advantage here. He won the same match up 4 years ago, Trump’s base is older so has had more deaths while 70 - 80% of new young voters are Democrats; all of January 6th, the indictments, the response to the indictments all happened after that election, and Trump has done literally nothing to expand his base beyond his cult. He’s no longer on Twitter, and the media isn’t treating his rallies as must-watch-TV any more. I am not saying there is no possibility that Trump wins, because Americans are loving stupid and awful, but it’s absolutely less likely than his re-election in 2020.
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Sep 30, 2023 16:03
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skeleton warrior posted:hahahahaha what no that’s not even close to true Plus, out of the four one-term presidents since WW2, three have been Republicans. The only thing the GOP has over the dems as far as generic election calculus, is they're better at winning the EC w/o the popular vote.
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Sep 30, 2023 16:08
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AlternateNu posted:Plus, out of the four one-term presidents since WW2, three have been Republicans. The only thing the GOP has over the dems as far as generic election calculus, is they're better at winning the EC w/o the popular vote. and one of those three was never elected to veep or the presidency in the first place, with a shorter term, so probably couldn't bring to bear the full incumbency advantage
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Sep 30, 2023 16:22
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skeleton warrior posted:hahahahaha what no that’s not even close to true I think what Leon is saying is that incumbents have less enthusiasm for their reelection compared to their first win. Which is probably true, as their second elections are typically closer. This probably has to do with the fact that the incumbent party is less engaged because their guy is in office now. But I'm maintaining that this is much less likely to apply to 2024 for various reasons, not least of which is the dramatic change of fortune for Trump given his indictments and possible loss of properties, as well as Democrats' own change of fortune due to the SC abortion ruling. Like, Trump isn't coming in to "get another shot" at the presidency after some kind of Biden disaster. He is coming in wounded and promising to continue the very poo poo that got him thrown out in the first place.
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Sep 30, 2023 17:22
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Was traveling on Business this week. Here is what came in the mail while I was out.     
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Sep 30, 2023 17:52
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The real problem for Joe, as I see it, is two fold: - Biden is almost as unpopular as Trump. He was a weak candidate in 2020 and a weak candidate now. No one finds him inspirational at all, not even Democrats (many of whom don't even want him to run), and this round he's going to have his put his clearly reduced cognitive abilities on a more national stage - Trump has a much larger base that would, in fact, still vote for him if he shot someone on 5th Avenue, just like he said. In a sane country, someone with 91 felony charges who said that, led an attempted coup on the country and acted like he did would be Walter Mondale levels of hosed. But we are not a sane country anymore and the grip that Donald has on his party is 100% unwavering. It's a cult. They'll vote for him if he's in loving jail. His base I mean. Joe can tout "Bidenomics" and the unemployment numbers all he wants but, fact is, people are simply not feeling it in their day to day lives. I'm not. I cut my budget every month and have largely stopped eating meat. I seek out gas stations that have 5 cent lower prices. I've taken to attempting my own home and car repairs with what I can glean off YouTube and shop at Dollar stores, garage sales and thrift shops more often than not these days. I've reduced my home insurance coverage to the bare minimum and have put off going to the dentist as well as the doctor. Writing off Trump's chances again is foolish and a repeat of the same mistakes and overall mindset many had in 2016. I played around with The Road to 270 electoral map, flipped a few states that are well within reason of going the other way this time and came away realizing that it's not far fetched at all. If I were betting who would I gamble on? Biden, certainly, but to my eyes the 2024 election is going to be an even bigger poo poo show than 2020, regardless of the outcome. Reminder that roughly 70% of Republican voters STILL believe the last election was stolen and that fraud was widespread. I don't know if we get another 1/6 that's ramped up this time or what but that wouldn't shock me either. If it's not that, it probably will be smaller, more locally focused and widespread "uprisings" and intimidation tactics. Whatever it is, these nuts are not just going to sit there and accept it if they're god king loses again (or is jailed) and, from my perspective, GOP voters are measurably more fired up to vote right now. Maybe the prospect of DJT2.0 will be enough to drive turnout for the dems again but I'm not banking on it. E God drat. Republican graphic design sucks rear end. BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Sep 30, 2023 |
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Sep 30, 2023 17:53
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Although Biden is almost as unpopular as Trump, I think that popularity measurements don't actually fully capture what's going on. I don't love Biden, I'm not sure how we got him, but I absolutely detest Trump. This is probably the case for most people who are not Trump diehards. The Trump base is strong, and more turned out for him in 2020 than in 2016, but he barely won then, lost the midterms in 2018, lost in 2020, and arguably lost the midterms for the Republicans in 2022 (I know they technically won, but it was such an underperformance that conservatives were crying about it as the results rolled in). What I'm getting at is that the Trump base is obviously not enough for him to win. A lot of them also died, in part thanks to Trump and Republican counties lagging in Covid vaccinations (and probably all other vaccinations by this point). This is true: most people feel poorer, I feel poorer, and most voters don't realize that the US was middling in peak inflation, and is at lower inflation now than much of Europe. It seems unlikely that the non-diehards who flipped to Democrats in 2018 - 2022 would come back to Trump after everything, though. This is especially true because Republicans are not actually offering anything to help. Republican policy is very unpopular and it seems like voters are wising up to what they're offering (which is nothing). One thing to consider about those maps is the collapse of the GOP in some of those key states, which was not the case then. AZ and MI come to mind. Democrats in PA flipped the State House in 2022 and made some gains in the Senate. They are also beating Republicans in new registrations (more registered Democrats in PA than Republicans now). WI easily elected a Democrat for their SC in a statewide election when it was supposed to be a close race. Given the above, and the fact that Democrats are overperforming in special elections by 10 points in 2023, it doesn't seem like there's a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats. If Republicans are fired up, why are they underperforming? What happened in 2022 during the biggest inflation in my lifetime in which Republicans barely took the House, lost governors, lost state legislatures, etc.? Trump's chance is certainly not zero, but it's worse than in 2016 and 2020. EDIT: Do we actually have any evidence of Biden's cognitive decline since 2020? Most of what I've seen are snippets that are out of context, or parts of much larger speeches in which Biden seems perfectly normal. small butter fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Sep 30, 2023 |
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Sep 30, 2023 19:25
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With it seeming like Vivek is pulling ahead of any of the Non-Trump primary Candidates, does he have a good shot if for whatever reason Trump ends up not being the nominee?
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Sep 30, 2023 19:35
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small butter posted:EDIT: Perceived decline is the same as proven decline. He's old, he stutters and he has a few on camera gaffes, that's enough.
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Sep 30, 2023 19:40
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AtomikKrab posted:With it seeming like Vivek is pulling ahead of any of the Non-Trump primary Candidates, does he have a good shot if for whatever reason Trump ends up not being the nominee? I just can't see the GOP nominating a non-white, non-Christian candidate at this level, or increasingly at most others given how unashamedly and openly bigoted the party is these days. Magic Underwear posted:Perceived decline is the same as proven decline. He's old, he stutters and he has a few on camera gaffes, that's enough. And he's tripped a few times, which those looking to portray frailty upon him claim proves he's a shambling wreck one stiff breeze away from falling completely apart.
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Sep 30, 2023 19:43
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small butter posted:
No, it's literally all confirmation bias and/or easily explainable stuff (his stuttering/the fact he's clearly sporting dentures since the Obama years/ him just being 80 and not being exactly as immediately articulate as he used to be) and meanwhile everyone who would have you believe he's a pile of mush in a chair conveniently ignores the numerous examples of him speaking very adeptly off the cuff It drives me crazy the way this baseless right wing talking point has been adopted by tons of supposedly progressive folks It also seems to me that there was a concerted effort to conflate fetterman's aphasia with Biden, and even in that case it has nothing to do with mental capacity
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Sep 30, 2023 19:44
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I just can't see the GOP nominating a non-white, non-Christian candidate at this level, or increasingly at most others given how unashamedly and openly bigoted the party is these days. Yeah, the Right had a struggle nominating a Mormon. Romney had to give a speech talking about his religion, the first sentence was "Religion shouldn't matter", and the second was "Of course I believe Jesus is our lord and savior". The folks who shouted "Jews will not replace us" will not vote for a Hindu.
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Sep 30, 2023 20:05
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AtomikKrab posted:With it seeming like Vivek is pulling ahead of any of the Non-Trump primary Candidates  it's possible he already hit his ceiling quote:does he have a good shot if for whatever reason Trump ends up not being the nominee? his strategy is to be the trump candidate if/when trump goes to jail and the gop yanks the nomination away. it's not going to work because one he's pissing off the party brass and two the base are fundamentalist psychos
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Sep 30, 2023 21:25
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StumblyWumbly posted:Yeah, the Right had a struggle nominating a Mormon. Romney had to give a speech talking about his religion, the first sentence was "Religion shouldn't matter", and the second was "Of course I believe Jesus is our lord and savior". Conversely, more Republicans see Donald Trump as "a man of faith" than they do Mitt Romney or Mike Pence so it's fully possible that Ramaswamy's psychopathy towards the poor is all the religion they need to see. Likewise, while Ramaswamy isn't white, he's a member of a model minority, so there may be a lot less racism against him than you'd immediately expect.
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Sep 30, 2023 21:31
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Vivek is taking the charade as far as he can to get humiliated by Nikki as many times as possible, it's the only sensible explanation.
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Sep 30, 2023 21:51
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StumblyWumbly posted:
They will. They all voted for Nikki Haley in South carolina. The fascist right wing is perfectly happy to vote for minority candidates so long as they are confident those minority candidates will implement fascism reliably.
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Sep 30, 2023 22:04
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Who even is this Vivek guy? I never even heard of.hij until he got on stage
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Sep 30, 2023 22:17
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Who even is this Vivek guy? I never even heard of.hij until he got on stage finance and biotechnology shithead
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Sep 30, 2023 22:29
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small butter posted:Good points Well, it seems fairly obvious to me and I'm not much into receiving my news through out of context RWM clips demonstrating it. You raised some good points and you're probably right overall. Biden also has (had) the slight "advantage" as not being hated as much as Hillary Clinton - a person who was roasted over a slow fire for 20+ years - for rage minded conservatives to vote AGAINST. But I'm not sure that's true anymore. I think that Biden was just a guy; a familiar name that was bolstered a bit by his direct association with Barrack Obama. But NOW, the Hunter Biden/Burisma stuff is making headlines and the RWM noise machine is beginning to paint him with that same Hillary brush and a lot of it is landing/permeating the discourse. At least in my circles. Could just be regional bias on my part. And Trump's viability has not BUDGED one % point, despite being indicted on 91 felonies, a sexual assault conviction and a fraud verdict in NYC. Many MANY people view Biden and Trump as equally corrupt, right or wrong, and when things aren't going too great the tendency is to vote for the other person. Now, in this case, the other person is a known commodity so Trump doesn't have that blank slate outsider thing to work with and, granted, the DISLIKE of Trump is higher than Joe's. So I dunno. This thing shouldn't even be CLOSE but here we are, you know? You're right that Trump's base alone is not enough but part of the reason he won in 2016 (along with the Hillary Buttery Mails and misogyny) was tapping into people who normally don't vote at all. And the thing about his base is that it's RABID. I don't remember a political candidate in my lifetime that could claim that level of unwavering dedication from that large a group of people. Not even Reagan or Nixon, who both won in landslides. This country is mean spirited, angry, uneducated, uninformed, heavily armed, deeply brainwashed, selfish, scares and increasingly ugly and desperate. What better totem than Trump to reflect that in the highest office? Nixon was run out on a rail as a national disgrace 50 years ago for FAR less. The fact that Trump is even on the ballot and is now spawning imitators should make us all stop and think, really, and have us looking at politics through a different, less traditional lens. I'm not doom posting here. I'd put Trump's chance at roughly 40-45% based on the electoral map. Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Who even is this Vivek guy? I never even heard of.hij until he got on stage 
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Sep 30, 2023 22:40
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I've thinking about it a lot lately and have come to the conclusion that fascism is not an ideology. At least not a coherent one that actually has any sort policies or systems that can be described in concrete terms. That's both why it's hard to define and why it's inherently immune to criticisms of hypocricy. Communism, liberal democracy, socialism, capitalism are all systems with defined mechanisms for running societies as they are ultimately all products of the enlightenment and efforts to design societies that are not just whatever the meanest toughest and best armed gang wants at any given time. We can debate their relative strengths weaknesses in comparison. Fascism is something different, it's more akin religion than a political ideology. It's the invention of the losers of World War 1 who were feeling emasculated in the wake of their defeat and in order to protect their own fragile egos had to come up with a rationalization for their defeat other than the obvious that they were just out gunned and more importantly out logistics'd. So they blame modernity and cosmopolitanism for making them weak and if modernity and cosmopolitanism that made them weak then the obvious solution is to reject modernity and cosmopolitanism in comes the appeal to a heroic ideal of legend. That's why the common strain among all fascists movements is misogyny. Women are weak and therefore anyone who encourages feminine power is trying to weaken men and must be opposed. American fascism is slightly different from European fascism because it's adherents lost the Civil War and as such the primary source of their angst and emasculation is the fault of black people or more specifically those weak feminine bleeding heart liberal race traitors who destroyed the natural order by freeing the slaves and as if that wasn't bad enough we won't let them treat black people as the unruly animals that the Fash believe them to be (ironically missing the fact that the bosses think the exact same thing about them). Every fascist thinks that they are a superman who if not for the "woke" (read feminine) forces holding them down with their unnatural laws would powerful and successful. The fact that this is obviously and logically false and frankly impossible as hierarchical systems by their very nature require a huge mass of laborers to support them and thus only a tiny percentage can hold power. That's why they are so cult like, it's also why they're sticking with Trump, a fascist movement has to have a living god to anchor it someone who speaks for the movement, someone who is the ideal Uber mensch and for the MAGAts that's Trump. This is why they have zero interest in the pathetic wannabes trying to replace him. They are instantly suspect and probably traitors trying to infiltrate and destroy the movement otherwise they would just fall in line. The simple fact that they trying to supplant the god of the movement means that they will never gain support from the MAGAts. Take DeSantis, the MAGAts loved him right up to the moment that it became clear that he was trying to supplant Trump. DeSantis like so many other idiots who don't understand how fascists think thought that it was the policies that attracted MAGA voters but they don't give a gently caress about policy, they care about supporting the incarnation of their ideals which is Trump. That's why Trump's legal problems rather than weakening their support has galvanized it. What we see as the natural legal consequences of his criminal actions they see as the corrupt feminine woke system attacking their god and are rallying to his defense. That's why the MAGAts in congress want to shut down the government, their actual demand is for the legal actions against Trump be dropped and they are willing to burn the whole country down to do it. People especially people in the media and the Democratic party need to wrap their loving heads around this reality. You cannot negotiate with fascists, you can't beat them through politics as usual. You have to make the non MAGAts understand what the MAGAts truly are, we continue to treat them as uninformed unsophisticated thinkers who just don't understand objective reality when the truth is that they have a solid grasp of reality of power. Cause the world they imagine is kind of the natural state of things, and it's taken humanity thousands of years to come up with solutions to that might makes right reality. They aren't deluded, they have completely different values. They simply value strength above all else. They love Trump because he gives no fucks about people's feelings or fairness or any of the touchy feel do gooderness of liberals and the left. Because the changes we have wrought on society are unnatural in their eyes. That's why politics as usual doesn't work, their disagreements aren't on the edges like ours are, while we argue about what's fair and how to make everyone as happy as possible they see it as us holding them down and it's not simply something they believe it's literally a part of their identity and you can't change that, you have to destroy it. That is why the Republican primary while entertaining is ultimately irrelevant. Skex fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Sep 30, 2023 |
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Sep 30, 2023 22:44
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BiggerBoat posted:This country is mean spirited, angry, uneducated, uninformed, heavily armed, deeply brainwashed, selfish, scares and increasingly ugly and desperate. What better totem than Trump to reflect that in the highest office? Nixon was run out on a rail as a national disgrace 50 years ago for FAR less. The fact that Trump is even on the ballot and is now spawning imitators should make us all stop and think, really, and have us looking at politics through a different, less traditional lens. I think you're overestimating how many people are like this vs appalled at these people. Who don't want these people to win. I think less are mean-spirited than more, hence Trump losing the popular vote twice and a Republican winning it only twice in my lifetime (and Trump is destined to lose the popular vote again). But yes, a lot of people in this country are raging freaks. It's just that they're often congregated in the right states to be successful. I looked it up and Democrats are overperforming by 11 points on average. This is apparently an imperfect but very good predictor of Presidential year success: https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-winning-big-special-elections/story?id=103315703 small butter fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Oct 1, 2023 |
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Oct 1, 2023 00:15
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I never thought I'd come to say this from where I was at some years ago, but if you are looking to polls for vindication of your gut feelings you may as well stick with your gut feelings. Lately they're way off. Remember the guaranteed slam dunk for Republicans during the midterms? These aren't even polls close to an election, they're not even worth thinking about IMO. Not much has changed about Biden since 2020. A lot has changed about Trump and none of it's good for Trump.
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Oct 1, 2023 00:36
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Yeah, next year's general is not a sure thing, but it's trending well, and I'm not really worried about polls until special elections start to match them. In the lead-up to last year's midterms, they were sworn to be a massive win for the Republicans, to the point that there was talk about the "red tsunami" because the red wave was going to just be that spectacularly big... and then, mysteriously, as it got close enough, the predictors all started swinging away from that and it became abundantly clear in retrospect that this was flatly an illusion. Why would I assume this has been fixed this year? Trump is probably literally incapable of not making his campaign speeches his grievance list, and "look, they convicted me of varied felonies, vote for me" is not near as much of a winner as "I am a rich businessman and you can project yourself onto me if you vote for me". A strong amount of Trump's success in 2016 hinged on a disbelief that he was actually credibly able to win. Once he did win, this vanished. He managed to lose 2018, 2020, and 2022. I'm not convinced he's on an uptick at the moment, and if he is I really don't think his current legal woes won't pull him back some. Depending on how quickly and how badly they go, the primaries may get very interesting.
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Oct 1, 2023 00:53
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small butter posted:I think you're overestimating how many people are like this vs appalled at these people. Who don't want these people to win. I think less are mean-spirited than more, hence Trump losing the popular vote twice and a Republican winning it only twice in my lifetime (and Trump is destined to lose the popular vote again). But yes, a lot of people in this country are raging freaks. It's just that they're often congregated in the right states to be successful. Yeah, like I said, it could just be a regional bias type of thing on my end. Thing is, though, even if it's not, there's still a hell of a lot more of the former that are like this and it concerns me a great deal. I've never seen a political candidate that had people flying giant flags on their trucks or jabbed into the sand at the beach like this idiot has created with his cult followers. I've NEVER seen this. TBH, it frightens me. I would almost get it if it was all for a person that was smart, clever and had his poo poo together in some particular way but Trump is just an abject pathological lying moron who hugs flags, breaks the law and talks about loyalty. Race to the bottom and all that. The party of law and order worships a man charged with 91 felony counts. I remember RWM going on about how much liberals and democrats fawned over Barrack Obama and, while there was admittedly some of that, at least I could see the attraction but it was nothing like what I'm seeing now. Worse, moving forward, I think we're staring down decades of Trump Lite (or Trump MEGA TURBO) political candidates from the GOP trying to capture his lightning as opposed to a shift towards more "reasonable" candidates like traditional old school Romney/Bush republicans, who were monsters in their own right to start with. My tolerance/dislike of the Republican primary candidates are basically completely upside down compared to their polling numbers. Things are going to continue to degenerate and get worse, the way I see things. So, even if Republicans can't win elections NOW, eventually the voters are going to rightfully grow weary of their lives inevitably getting worse and if, like you said, the Dems are in charge during that phase since the GOP can't win, EVENTUALLY they're going to flip the lever to the other side in a two party system. Also, the Electoral College and gerrymandering, combined with voter restrictions going on right now are showing us that they don't even need a majority to win. Plus, look what they've done with SCOTUS.
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Oct 1, 2023 00:57
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BiggerBoat posted:Yeah, like I said, it could just be a regional bias type of thing on my end. Thing is, though, even if it's not, there's still a hell of a lot more of the former that are like this and it concerns me a great deal. I've never seen a political candidate that had people flying giant flags on their trucks or jabbed into the sand at the beach like this idiot has created with his cult followers. I've NEVER seen this. TBH, it frightens me. I live in a purple state and in 2022 I honestly thought I might be having a “Big Short” moment because there were so.many.republican.signs for the MAGA candidates that won the primaries. I was like “this is not good for our Dems” and then the polls started showing coin-flip chances and I got worried. And then, the Republicans got loving spanked by double digits. It was incredible. And so what I learned was (a) polls are trash still and (b) it’s easy to be convinced that the louder party is the majority. And these loving people don’t know how to be anything but loud. I’m not saying there isn’t work to do to make sure Biden wins in ‘24, but you have to think about how many people actually think life would improve under a Trump admin, when we all know inflation is baked into the economy no matter who wins, and then vote that way. The old R’s have it right, generic Republican would probably smash Biden to bits…too bad they have an albatross in Trump….
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Oct 1, 2023 01:28
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Crazyweasel posted:. That's not universal.
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Oct 1, 2023 01:32
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Name Change posted:I never thought I'd come to say this from where I was at some years ago, but if you are looking to polls for vindication of your gut feelings you may as well stick with your gut feelings. Lately they're way off. Remember the guaranteed slam dunk for Republicans during the midterms? These aren't even polls close to an election, they're not even worth thinking about IMO. Also: Reagan, Clinton, W., and Obama lost tons of "popularity" from their first election going into the second term. Usually, they recover after the campaign pushes out into the world and things come into focus. This isn't to say it can't happen. Hell, it just recently did and if the economy just loving tanks on say August 1st, then yah its going to be hard. But those are things you can't control.
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Oct 1, 2023 01:43
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skeleton warrior posted:Conversely, more Republicans see Donald Trump as "a man of faith" than they do Mitt Romney or Mike Pence so it's fully possible that Ramaswamy's psychopathy towards the poor is all the religion they need to see. Likewise, while Ramaswamy isn't white, he's a member of a model minority, so there may be a lot less racism against him than you'd immediately expect. They see Trump as a man of faith because the Evangelical leadership endorsed him as such. The Evangelical church won't endorse Romney because the Mormon church is more of a threat to them. Not sure why they won't endorse Pence, but it is probably because he is an unlikable loser and there's no upside to endorsing him. Trump is willing to buy the Evangelical endorsement with money and photo ops and media, they can just say he's Forgiven and it isn't a big ideological stretch. Hinduism is probably enough of a threat to the Evangelical church that they would not endorse Vivek. With Trump, folks can say "In his heart he believes in God, he just sinned in the past", and you can say that about a guy who doesn't go to church, but not a guy who holds a different religion. My gut feel is that Vivek doesn't really want to be President, he's just doing this for Media Cred, same as Newt, Ben Carson, Trump 2016, and a lot of past Republican joke candidates with no experience.
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Oct 1, 2023 02:17
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:They will. They all voted for Nikki Haley in South carolina. The fascist right wing is perfectly happy to vote for minority candidates so long as they are confident those minority candidates will implement fascism reliably. Nikki Haley looks white and is christian Vivek doesn't and isn't respectively. There are definitely some Republicans who won't bother voting if he's the nominee. Probably not enough to turn a reliably red state purple but maybe enough to turn a purple state blue.
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Oct 1, 2023 03:14
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Relevant Tangent posted:Nikki Haley looks white and is christian Vivek doesn't and isn't respectively. There are definitely some Republicans who won't bother voting if he's the nominee. Probably not enough to turn a reliably red state purple but maybe enough to turn a purple state blue. Nikki Haley is absolutely not a "Christian" to those people. There were several state level scandals during her runs for SC governor about various local Republicans calling her racist epithets. I knew one dude who would troll his Republican parents by saying "Nikki Haley is a Muslim" whenever they talked too much Fox News around him; it always shut them up because functionally they believed it. To MAGA types race and religion and political affiliation are all mixed up together; in the deep south you hear people casually use the word "democrat" to mean "black person", "Christian" to mean "white Republican", etc. That said, they're happy to vote for any minority so long as they're confident that minority will protect their racist fascism. See: Lindsay Graham, Tim Scott, etc.
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Oct 1, 2023 03:24
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Google Jeb Bush posted:finance and biotechnology shithead What is about pharma (and O&G to extent) that attracts the shittiest people? Like, I'm sure the normal chemical industry has tons of awful people, but none of them gets as loud and public as pharma
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Oct 1, 2023 03:34
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:What is about pharma (and O&G to extent) that attracts the shittiest people? Like, I'm sure the normal chemical industry has tons of awful people, but none of them gets as loud and public as pharma Also I'm surprised Martin Shkreli hasn't tried a vanity presidential run come to think about it. Guess he can't really take the "Hillary Clinton is a demon out to murder me" votes away from Trump.
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Oct 1, 2023 04:37
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:What is about pharma (and O&G to extent) that attracts the shittiest people? Like, I'm sure the normal chemical industry has tons of awful people, but none of them gets as loud and public as pharma To be a successful exec in pharma you need to have convinced yourself that actually it's great to charge as much as humanly possibly and beyond that for life-saving medication and procedures. You need to look at inelastic demand due to fundamental human necessity and go  .
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Oct 1, 2023 04:42
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Vivek isn't even really involved in pharma or biotech. He is in finance. His "biotech/pharma" career is: 1) He bought a biotech company and bought patents for failed drugs from pharma companies for basically nothing. 2) He hyped up that he had a system to turn the failed drugs around and make them work. 3) He pitched it to investors and said they could get potentially enormous returns because they would be blockbuster drugs that he bought for pennies because they failed clinical trials. 4) He got about $1.5 billion in investments and then sold the company. 5) It turns out that his "system" wasn't successful, the drugs still didn't work, and the people who bought it from him took a huge bath.
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Oct 1, 2023 04:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:They will. They all voted for Nikki Haley in South carolina. The fascist right wing is perfectly happy to vote for minority candidates so long as they are confident those minority candidates will implement fascism reliably. Nikki Haley hasn't had her name on a ballot since her re-election in 2014. She wouldn't win a statewide office if she ran today. A lot of people who held their nose and voted for their team in a red state back then aren't going to give her the time of day now that masks are fully off. She'd get chewed up in the primary and spat out in a racial slur.
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Oct 1, 2023 05:12
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StumblyWumbly posted:They see Trump as a man of faith because the Evangelical leadership endorsed him as such. The Evangelical church won't endorse Romney because the Mormon church is more of a threat to them. Not sure why they won't endorse Pence, but it is probably because he is an unlikable loser and there's no upside to endorsing him. Trump is willing to buy the Evangelical endorsement with money and photo ops and media, they can just say he's Forgiven and it isn't a big ideological stretch. Hinduism is probably enough of a threat to the Evangelical church that they would not endorse Vivek. With Trump, folks can say "In his heart he believes in God, he just sinned in the past", and you can say that about a guy who doesn't go to church, but not a guy who holds a different religion. The Evangelical leaders endorse Trump because game recognize game.
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Oct 1, 2023 05:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Vivek isn't even really involved in pharma or biotech. He is in finance. How hasn't there been a collapse of the VC/AI market by now, anyway? How can these people keep propping up the likes of Tesla, Twitter (huh, now both under the same owner), Strive, etc., for years if not a decade+ on end with no profitability even remotely on the horizon?
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Oct 1, 2023 06:19
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Fuschia tude posted:How hasn't there been a collapse of the VC/AI market by now, anyway? How can these people keep propping up the likes of Tesla, Twitter (huh, now both under the same owner), Strive, etc., for years if not a decade+ on end with no profitability even remotely on the horizon? It used to be propped up pretty heavily by free money via almost 0% interest rates, which is no longer a thing
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Oct 1, 2023 06:32
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The above discussion is tied to the underlying shittiness of pharma; getting a drug to market requires (legitimate, necessary) massive regulatory and scientific expense, and individual drug patents create a massive boom-or-bust reward structure. It's like a lottery where the jackpot is in the rage of 50 billion, but each ticket is 10 million- and that's if your company's doing everything by the book. If you can find a way to make a ticket cheaper, or get someone else to pay, or get more payments from a winning ticket... This creates especially strong incentives for a) deregulatory pressure, b) slimy financial practices to deflect risk and speculate on "winners", and c) evading regulations. These all feed into each other, especially the intersection of a) and b), which keep producing new forms of slimy efforts to undermine drug approvals, building upon previous successful deregulatory efforts. I dream of the day that we recover from and reverse the court decisions that blocked FDA from regulating prescription practices and normalized offlabeling. I have no idea how we get there; we've created a knowledge deficit to the tune of trillions. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 08:11 on Oct 1, 2023 |
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Oct 1, 2023 08:09
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