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Jeffries publically: This is a serious and somber moment Jeffries internally: lol, lmao This has got to be a genuinely very funny time to be a House Democrat, after years (decades?) of media pieces about Dems In Disarray.
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Oct 3, 2023 16:37
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Main Paineframe posted:. If the House successfully votes in a Democratic peaker while the House has a Republican majority, every Republican that backed the effort will almost certainly be facing a well-funded primary challenger with the full backing of right-wing media. If the dems won the speaker position, the gop has not secured a majority.
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Oct 3, 2023 16:37
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I know everyone is currently fixated on Kevin McCarthy, but we got some other news out of Arizona this morning: Arizona to end deal allowing Saudi farms to suck Arizona's groundwater dry quote:LA PAZ COUNTY, Ariz. — The overseas company sucking water out of the Arizona ground will no longer be able to do so, according to an announcement from Gov. Katie Hobbs on Monday citing a default on the company's lease. More in the link, but AZ has reviewed the leases and believe they have cause to terminate one of the leases that allows this company to grow alfalfa to export to Saudi Arabia, and will allow the other leases to expire. Fondomonte is, of course, going to fight this as much as they can - but I doubt they'll win. The major implication here is that it will relieve some stress on the Colorado River, which supplies a number of states. This is the same river/watershed that's been the source of contention over water rights over the last several years given the historic drought facing the western US, so unless Fondomonte is somehow successful in court, it should provide some relief to Arizona and possibly other states as well. Pretty big win for everyone involved, unless you're Fondomonte or a Saudi cattle rancher.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:03
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One House Freedom Caucus member already getting cold feet. https://twitter.com/RepDanBishop/status/1709234505855193181
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Oct 3, 2023 17:04
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:One House Freedom Caucus member already getting cold feet. Sounds like he's retiring as well?
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Oct 3, 2023 17:05
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zoux posted:Sounds like he's retiring as well? He’s running for Attorney General.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:07
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zoux posted:Sounds like he's retiring as well? Yeah, he's not running for re-election to the house because he wants to run for Attorney General of North Carolina.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:08
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Quorum posted:Dems In Disarray. Republicans without Recourse ?
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Oct 3, 2023 17:14
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Conservatives in Chaos It really is a structural disadvantage that there's no synonym for disarray that starts with "R"
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Oct 3, 2023 17:15
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Republicans in Ruin
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Oct 3, 2023 17:17
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Morrow posted:Republicans in Ruin Republicans to Riot
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Oct 3, 2023 17:21
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Rickety Republicans
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Oct 3, 2023 17:22
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Morrow posted:Republicans in Ruin i like
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Oct 3, 2023 17:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:One House Freedom Caucus member already getting cold feet. Is "Mr. McCarthy is an accurate reflection of the current House Republican Conference" supposed to be a compliment? Because it really, really doesn't come off as one
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Oct 3, 2023 17:26
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haveblue posted:Is "Mr. McCarthy is an accurate reflection of the current House Republican Conference" supposed to be a compliment? Because it really, really doesn't come off as one Oh I think it’s supposed to be an insult. Especially considering where it’s coming from.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:27
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haveblue posted:Is "Mr. McCarthy is an accurate reflection of the current House Republican Conference" supposed to be a compliment? Because it really, really doesn't come off as one It's not. He's basically saying that McCarthy sucks and is a RINO, unlike true freedom-loving patriots such as himself, but there aren't enough freedom lovers in Congress and he is regrettably going to have to support McCarthy because it will empower the Democrats if the House is in chaos and unable to credibly negotiate or threaten to send legislation to the Senate.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:28
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I think it's meant to be a policy thing. Gaetz wants to remove him primarily because he supports funding for Ukraine, but that is also the position of the party, so removing him for that is not really productive
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Oct 3, 2023 17:32
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Blue Dog and Problem Solvers Caucuses are both confirming they won't attempt to help McCarthy. That means there will be 0 Democrats to support any motion to keep McCarthy unless he agrees to powersharing agreements. It is honestly impressive that McCarthy has managed to systematically burn every possible bridge in congress at once. Conservative Republicans, Moderate Republicans, all the Republican leadership except for Steve Scalise, Moderate Democrats, Liberal Democrats, Democratic Leadership, and even the MTG's who are crazy, but no longer part of the Freedom Caucus all say they can't trust him because he has lied to them and made too many promises he never fulfilled. But, there is literally nobody who they can all agree on to replace him, so despite being hated and distrusted by literally everyone in congress, McCarthy is still just barely holding on by making it an election of himself vs. Democrats and/or anarchy. https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1709227538482860094 https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1709241735308620254
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Oct 3, 2023 17:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That means the potential scenarios are (in order of likelihood): I know this was the bottom of the list, but I don't think a scenario where the government is shut down for like 14 months is a thing that could happen. Not paying your military for a year is a good way for bad poo poo to happen pretty fast.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:40
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Gully Foyle posted:I know this was the bottom of the list, but I don't think a scenario where the government is shut down for like 14 months is a thing that could happen. Not paying your military for a year is a good way for bad poo poo to happen pretty fast. (I know. That was the joke answer because it was at the bottom of the list and implied that Gaetz would rather go home for 14 months than admit he lost.)
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Oct 3, 2023 17:42
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So, with all house dems voting to remove McCarthy, what is the threshold in terms of far-right votes needed to remove?
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Oct 3, 2023 17:48
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smug n stuff posted:So, with all house dems voting to remove McCarthy, what is the threshold in terms of far-right votes needed to remove? Since the balance of power is currently 221 R to 212 D, he can lose four (Gaetz plus three others) without being fired. A fifth Republican voting to vacate and he's toast. Anybody not voting or voting present would change the calculus slightly.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:52
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smug n stuff posted:So, with all house dems voting to remove McCarthy, what is the threshold in terms of far-right votes needed to remove? It depends how many people are voting "Present" or not there to vote. It would be 5 most likely. Unless there is some kind of mass Present vote or people not voting. The problem is that a new speaker has to get 218 votes (minus vacancies) and nobody has any idea who could actually do that. It's pretty easy to topple him with just a few Republican votes, but not easy to find someone who can get a majority to replace him.
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Oct 3, 2023 17:54
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My guess is he's removed abs then eventually voted back in due to lack of better alternatives. Unless five Republicans switch parties which would be hilarious
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Oct 3, 2023 17:56
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The Republicans don't have anyone on deck who isn't (1) McCarthy or one of his allies or (2) a blatant opportunist with no other agenda. Right now the Freedom Caucus has gotten McCarthy to constantly do stupid hard right posturing and introduce unpassable Kill Your Parents bills as "negotiating tactics." They literally can't do better.
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Oct 3, 2023 18:00
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I can see it going the first few rounds with McCarthy not having the votes and then holdouts extracting even further concessions out of McCarthy. I think it was a Vox media podcast yesterday a reporter suggested that part of the reason Gaetz is a gadfly is because he’s trying to pressure McCarthy into quashing an ethics investigation into him. Maybe McCarthy finally feels the twist, plays ball, covers for Gaetz and suddenly this all goes away.
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Oct 3, 2023 18:05
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If they pass the removal bill, is he gone right then and we're back to the beginning "no one can pass anything at all" or is midterm removal different where there's like an interim or acting or whatever Speaker?
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Oct 3, 2023 18:12
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Doesn't that go the other way as well? Other discussion that's been posted in here is that McCarthy is going to try to turn up the heat on Gaetz's ethics investigation as retaliation/leverage.
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Oct 3, 2023 18:14
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projecthalaxy posted:If they pass the removal bill, is he gone right then and we're back to the beginning "no one can pass anything at all" or is midterm removal different where there's like an interim or acting or whatever Speaker? Back to no one can pass anything at all. There is no vice- or deputy speaker to assume the position if he's ousted or anything like that and without a speaker the only thing the House can vote on is who should be speaker PharmerBoy posted:Doesn't that go the other way as well? Other discussion that's been posted in here is that McCarthy is going to try to turn up the heat on Gaetz's ethics investigation as retaliation/leverage. Only if his speakership survives this, and it may be up to Gaetz whether or not that happens
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Oct 3, 2023 18:15
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Shooting Blanks posted:I know everyone is currently fixated on Kevin McCarthy, but we got some other news out of Arizona this morning: Just absolutely LOL that we were letting anyone grow one of the most water intensive crops, in Arizona of all places. Let alone, a foreign corporation.
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Oct 3, 2023 18:15
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5 R’s making Jeffries speaker would be a hilarious strategy. They could still vote R and stymie the D agenda, and campaign on Dem’s not being able to fix anything having full control of Congress. It won’t happen, but it would be funny.
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Oct 3, 2023 18:17
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Name Change posted:The Republicans don't have anyone on deck who isn't (1) McCarthy or one of his allies or (2) a blatant opportunist with no other agenda. McCarthy was also a blatant opportunist with no other agenda, so I don't know if replacing him with another blatant opportunist is really that hard a sell. Especially since McCarthy made a ton of promises in order to get the speakership, and has broken enough of them that hardly anyone trusts him anymore. In particular, the Gaetz faction loses basically all their leverage if they let him back in. They've been able to demand massive concessions with the threat of ousting him, but that only works as long as they can credibly threaten to oust him. If Gaetz pulls the trigger, he'd better hit, or else he's blown his entire negotiating position.
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Oct 3, 2023 18:26
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Jaxyon posted:Just absolutely LOL that we were letting anyone grow one of the most water intensive crops, in Arizona of all places. Yeah, 1 waterless western state with alfalfa as a main export down, only literally every other western state to go and then MAYBE the Great Salt Lake won't turn into a toxic arsenic dustbowl. mutata fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Oct 3, 2023 |
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Oct 3, 2023 18:48
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First roll call for the motion to vacate has 5 Dems and 3 Republicans absent. That means McCarthy can lose 5 votes and still stay on. 6 to oust. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Oct 3, 2023 |
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Oct 3, 2023 19:11
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Prospect covers today's Supreme Court hearing on CFPB Stakes aren't super high or anything quote:The case, which advanced through the ultraconservative Fifth Circuit, specifically challenges a payday lending rule that the CFPB finalized, but the lower court ruled that every single rule that passed through the CFPB, all of which was conducted through funding deemed unconstitutional, would have to fall, including a lot of rules banks would want to see upheld, like safe harbors that allow for the smooth functioning of mortgage markets. In an amicus brief, the Mortgage Bankers Association warned that calling into question all CFPB rules could “destabilize the mortgage market.” He's optimistic based on oral arguments, which is always dangerous, but it is an aggressively novel and disruptive theory.
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Oct 3, 2023 19:15
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When exactly is this vote happening? Right now? Can't find a clear feed to follow.
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Oct 3, 2023 19:16
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Dolash posted:When exactly is this vote happening? Right now? Can't find a clear feed to follow. They are preparing for the first vote right now. It probably won't actually start for another 45 minutes or so due to procedural stuff.
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Oct 3, 2023 19:18
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They are preparing for the first vote right now. It probably won't actually start for another 45 minutes or so due to procedural stuff. And its going to be the same voting style as the voting to choose a speaker so that will take time as well. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709267329094131769 quote:FWIW -- Several House aides tell me that the motion-to-vacate vote will be an alphabetical roll call akin to the vote(s) for speaker back in Jan.
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Oct 3, 2023 19:26
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Here we go! 15min to vote on the Motion to Table
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Oct 3, 2023 19:33
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Granted its probably bluster on Gaetz part, but he was crowing yesterday he would have motioned sooner but that there were votes he expected that had not made it back to washington yet as of early Monday, so maybe he has a whip count that he is going off of. Its not impossible to think he knows five other HFC members that want to see the world burn. But if he expected his threshhold to be lower because of assuming higher attendance than lol
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Oct 3, 2023 19:35
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