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RPATDO_LAMD posted:basically just remember that the fraction of people who actually pay in a f2p game is really close to zero.
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Oct 5, 2023 09:50
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Jack Trades posted:Now I don't personally know any whales but I imagine that most of them are also recession-proof. Star Citizen, with its infamous >$40k Legatus package, would seem to confirm your impression of whales: 
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Oct 5, 2023 09:57
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FishMcCool posted:Star Citizen, with its infamous >$40k Legatus package, would seem to confirm your impression of whales: This is showing the amount of money donated by month and year? It would be really interesting to see what percentage made large donations and how big they really get. Star Citizen is probably bucking the trend though - I guess it has to be compared to early access games but it's not even that anymore 
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Oct 5, 2023 10:48
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star citizen is genuinely interesting because whereas most live service games operate on FOMO in the sense of, 'look at this cool thing we just put out, get it before its gone,' star citizen operates on FOMO in the sense of 'get this thing before it exists'. its comparable to preorders in a way. maybe thats the new avenue. preordering fortnite skins.
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Oct 5, 2023 11:11
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Fruits of the sea posted:This is showing the amount of money donated by month and year? Yup, at least allegedly. There's no way to verify it and they have an incentive to paint a rosy picture to keep the momentum going, so there's a question mark on the figures. But if they're reflective of the real numbers, even with some fudging, that's some impressive resilience to the various economic issues we've all dealt with in the past few years, which would map well with Jack Trades assumption that gaming whales are mostly from social classes above economic hardship. If that's the case, then f2p/gaas are probably a safer bet than one-off games relying on everyone's disposable income.
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Oct 5, 2023 11:55
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I'm grateful to whales, I've had a shitton of fun playing Marvel Snap and I've never spent a cent on it
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Oct 5, 2023 12:37
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https://www.eurogamer.net/all-dragon-age-qa-staff-who-formed-union-laid-off Yeesh
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Oct 5, 2023 12:45
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Fruits of the sea posted:Revenue growth for the video games market as a whole has been increasing every year until 2022. Went from an average high of 21.2% in 2021 down to 5.8% in 2022. Keep in mind, that's growth. The industry is still making more money year over year, it's just not growing as quickly as it was during the pandemic and the years leading up to it. Annual increase of 5% is considered very lovely, if you're an investor. FWIW it's important to put that in some more historical context, because the games market got an incredible windfall during lockdown. From what I can find online, YoY growths for 2017, 2018 and 2019 were respectively 7.8%, 13.3% and 9.6%. This makes 5.8% YoY growth still pretty bad (it's a little over half of what might be expected based on historical data), but it's not the massive collapse you might expect looking at 2022 vs 2021 YoY growth figures. (AAA is still a deeply broken and unsustainable model for making games regardless of that growth percentage, obviously - no amount of contextualising growth numbers is going to make it work longterm.)
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Oct 5, 2023 12:55
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Jack Trades posted:Most of the modern GaaS games aren't designed for making money off average joe, they survive purely off a few whales, with the average joes being the set dressing for the former. Royalty, oligarchs, hedge fund traders, surgeons, and tech employees make a large chunk of the whales. The tech employee set is having some trouble recently, and I expect but don't have data to support that elective surgery is declining. A lot of them are high net worth people with "do you know who I am" [no, you dont] energy. We love our lower tier spenders, too. But you don't get concierge service with a direct phone line without spending some money.
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Oct 5, 2023 13:14
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:I'm grateful to whales, I've had a shitton of fun playing Marvel Snap and I've never spent a cent on it Nah gently caress whales. They’re enabling a “f2p” game model that is actively making GBS threads up pretty much all gaming, free and not. Next time you get pissed because a game you paid $60+ for wants to sell you a $100 currency bundle day one to buy skins or, worse, loving card packs (looking at you EA) thank your local whale who is convincing game devs that this is how you make money. Again, not just in f2p. If people are willing to spend the money on free they should be willing to spend it on AAA, because after all to a whale the difference between the two might as well not exist.
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Oct 5, 2023 13:29
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kirbysuperstar posted:https://www.eurogamer.net/all-dragon-age-qa-staff-who-formed-union-laid-off Likely the same thing that happened to aforementioned Naughty Dog QA, and Raven Software QA, etc Sure, industry growth and the economic foundation for certain business models in gaming is rather hosed right now, but these corporate entities absolutely see the writing on the wall when it comes to workplace organization. They see the brisk pace of hosed up magical thinking going on in the financialised economy, the autoworkers, healthcare workers, writers, actors, teachers, etc on strike, and they see movements to unionize proliferating all over their own industry (an industry infamous for outflanking that kind of development)...and yeah the assholes will make it their number one priority to chase whatever fragile boondoggle commodity horizon the genie of technological ingenuity can fart out while weaponizing post-covid decline statistics as ammunition against a labor force they habitually grind into dust to make record profits.
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Oct 5, 2023 13:29
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Cyrano4747 posted:Nah gently caress whales. They’re enabling a “f2p”
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Oct 5, 2023 13:31
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leper khan posted:Royalty, oligarchs, hedge fund traders, surgeons, and tech employees make a large chunk of the whales. The tech employee set is having some trouble recently, and I expect but don't have data to support that elective surgery is declining. Don't forget idle Saudi Arabians. Especiallys play-money gambling games, since real money gambling is against the law in SA, they love play them some slots games. A previous company I worked at kept an old slots game running just for a single whale in SA that spent almost 1m a year on it.
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Oct 5, 2023 13:45
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Lemon-Lime posted:FWIW it's important to put that in some more historical context, because the games market got an incredible windfall during lockdown. Those growth numbers have to be looked at relative to other investment opportunities though. 5.8% is very bad considering there are far safer investments in 2023 that you can park money in right now and reliably get 4% or more on. That wasn’t the case for 7.8% growth in 2017 when interest rates were comparatively lower. If every investor has a significantly safer alternative at a slightly lower rate then a bunch of funding could theoretically exit the ecosystem.
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Oct 5, 2023 13:58
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Bucnasti posted:Don't forget idle Saudi Arabians. Especiallys play-money gambling games, since real money gambling is against the law in SA, they love play them some slots games. A previous company I worked at kept an old slots game running just for a single whale in SA that spent almost 1m a year on it. I was bundling them in with royalty and oligarchs. The money flows there are a little weird given the Saudi's investments in games. I'm not sure whether their propensity to whale has informed their purchase of studios. Makes the money more circular which I suppose makes whaling cheaper if you take a macro view.
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Oct 5, 2023 14:01
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Lemon-Lime posted:FWIW it's important to put that in some more historical context, because the games market got an incredible windfall during lockdown. Thanks, I appreciate you adding the context! I think the lockdown didn't do the industry any big favours in the long run. At least not for folks hired and set on projects only to be canned two or three years down the road. Bucnasti posted:Don't forget idle Saudi Arabians. Especiallys play-money gambling games, since real money gambling is against the law in SA, they love play them some slots games. A previous company I worked at kept an old slots game running just for a single whale in SA that spent almost 1m a year on it. That's amazing. lmao
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Oct 5, 2023 14:20
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Fruits of the sea posted:Thanks, I appreciate you adding the context! 3 years is a lot longer than average tenure, so that's not too bad.
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Oct 5, 2023 14:21
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leper khan posted:3 years is a lot longer than average tenure, so that's not too bad. 
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Oct 5, 2023 14:21
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Cyrano4747 posted:Nah gently caress whales. They’re enabling a “f2p” I get we all hate F2P because we have to click past a promo jpg every so often, but it's also true that for every 1 whale there are tens or hundreds of thousands of people who play free to play games who otherwise would not be able to. Talking to game devs who live or target non-US markets (eg the rest of the planet) really gives a different perspective on things. Edit: Until this past year, 3 years unbroken was the longest I was able to stay at a company since 2009, heh. Seems like forever. mutata fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 14:22
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The 7th Guest posted:
How does THAT happen? I thought steam exes had DRM that required Steam Client to launch?
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Oct 5, 2023 14:46
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Coffee Jones posted:How does THAT happen? I thought steam exes had DRM that required Steam Client to launch? The app bundle is just a zipped folder.
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Oct 5, 2023 14:50
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Coffee Jones posted:How does THAT happen? I thought steam exes had DRM that required Steam Client to launch? Having the Steam DRM on your game is not required.
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Oct 5, 2023 15:07
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nachos posted:Those growth numbers have to be looked at relative to other investment opportunities though. 5.8% is very bad considering there are far safer investments in 2023 that you can park money in right now and reliably get 4% or more on. That wasn’t the case for 7.8% growth in 2017 when interest rates were comparatively lower. If every investor has a significantly safer alternative at a slightly lower rate then a bunch of funding could theoretically exit the ecosystem. Yes, absolutely - all I'm saying is that's not a cataclysmic drop like you might expect seeing it go from ~20% to ~6%.
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Oct 5, 2023 15:39
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nachos posted:Those growth numbers have to be looked at relative to other investment opportunities though. 5.8% is very bad considering there are far safer investments in 2023 that you can park money in right now and reliably get 4% or more on. That wasn’t the case for 7.8% growth in 2017 when interest rates were comparatively lower. If every investor has a significantly safer alternative at a slightly lower rate then a bunch of funding could theoretically exit the ecosystem. Just to add to this, there are actually savings accounts at some banks you can even get up to 5% on.
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Oct 5, 2023 15:44
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mutata posted:I get we all hate F2P because we have to click past a promo jpg every so often, but it's also true that for every 1 whale there are tens or hundreds of thousands of people who play free to play games who otherwise would not be able to. Talking to game devs who live or target non-US markets (eg the rest of the planet) really gives a different perspective on things. I don't hate F2P because I have to click past a promo jpg, I hate predatory poo poo like Genshin because I keep encountering people who get baited in to spending hundreds, eventually thousands of dollars to "wish" (read: slot machine) for a character or weapon they want and meanwhile can't afford their medical bills. At least with something like Fortnite you know exactly how much poo poo costs and have the opportunity to make some kind of decision, instead of falling in to the exact same methods that make traditional gambling addicting.
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Oct 5, 2023 15:58
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Yeah they're not making games F2P out of the goodness of their hearts. Whale Theory is important because it explains why it's objectively the most logical thing to bait whales instead of trying to cultivate a bunch of modest spenders, who don't even really exist because the majority of people are either leeches or whales. That's why the prices in these things are always immediately unreasonable, it's not for the people to whom it's out of reach.
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Oct 5, 2023 16:22
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goblin week posted:quoting this so you don’t escape by deleting your posts later escape what lol mutata posted:I get we all hate F2P because we have to click past a promo jpg every so often, but it's also true that for every 1 whale there are tens or hundreds of thousands of people who play free to play games who otherwise would not be able to. Talking to game devs who live or target non-US markets (eg the rest of the planet) really gives a different perspective on things. people hate f2p bcos the entire buisness model is built off of exploiting people with poor impulse control and addictive personalities, which the games seek to trigger and push them to indulge in thru gambling mechanics. these also often end up introducing minors to gambling. the other part of it doesnt justify that at all, and the games make such an inordinate amount of money they could very easily not lean so heavily on trying to push people into unhealthy spending
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Oct 5, 2023 16:27
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Cyrano4747 posted:Nah gently caress whales. They’re enabling a “f2p” youre so loving stupid dude. the games are designed to trick people into spending more and prey on ppl who cannot control themselves. theyre not enabling anything theyre being used by companies who have no qualms about manipulating them.
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Oct 5, 2023 16:31
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mycot posted:That's why the prices in these things are always immediately unreasonable, it's not for the people to whom it's out of reach. Endorph fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 16:35
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Fruits of the sea posted:OK I'm procrastinating work so here's some data on how people are spending their money (or at least where the money is going) summary is that things are going downwards: I wouldn't be surprised if the ad revenue drop is heavily tied to apple changing how privacy settings work by default on their devices. That really hosed with basically every ad business big time.
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Oct 5, 2023 16:35
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also i like the assumption that 100% of whales are extremely rich people and none of them are just ppl willing to use life ruining amounts of credit lol
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Oct 5, 2023 16:38
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If we’re talking about casualties of free-to-play technically-not-gambling bullshit, don’t forget literal children! Gotta get started on that habit early while their brains are still nice and malleable. And hey, if your mum and dad set up the payment controls on the tablet wrong, it’s like you’re not spending anything at all!Stux posted:also i like the assumption that 100% of whales are extremely rich people and none of them are just ppl willing to use life ruining amounts of credit lol
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Oct 5, 2023 16:42
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pumpinglemma posted:If we’re talking about casualties of free-to-play technically-not-gambling bullshit, don’t forget literal children! Gotta get started on that habit early. And hey, if your mum and dad set up the payment controls on the tablet wrong, it’s like you’re not spending anything at all!
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Oct 5, 2023 16:44
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Stux posted:also i like the assumption that 100% of whales are extremely rich people and none of them are just ppl willing to use life ruining amounts of credit lol "out of reach" is the wrong phrasing, more "if you're completely discouraged by this kind of price tag you've been filtered". Endorph posted:eh, kind of. most of these things have some sort of low-spending option that gives you a relatively high amount of return for a small fee. like the 5 dollar thing in genshin that gives you 30 bucks worth of roll currency as you log in every day for a month. ofc the prices they set on these things are arbitrary so 'high return' isnt the right wording exactly, but you get the idea. high return, within the system they've built. the intent there is to get people to spend once, because once they've spent once they're much more likely to spend again. thats also why that stuff is always set up as battle passes or daily login or w/e. besides getting people to log in every day meaning they build more attachment to the game, it also means that they can't get all that currency at once with a single purchase, which means if they want a bunch at once for some new thing those arent an option, despite being the best 'value' (heavy quotation marks) for your cash. As soon as you step outside the obligatory frugal options though, it ramps up. It's hard to calculate because it all goes through their funny money but buying a 10 roll in Genshin Impact is around 35 USD.
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Oct 5, 2023 16:45
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i said children. a life ruining amount of credit is any amount beyond your means, you dont need a line of credit for 100s of thousands to gently caress yourself up.
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Oct 5, 2023 16:46
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Stux posted:also i like the assumption that 100% of whales are extremely rich people and none of them are just ppl willing to use life ruining amounts of credit lol the horse game in Japan that makes ~$50 million a month had an article written on it, and they interviewed a guy who started with $70k in his savings. His comment was "I can't afford to buy property, so I started playing this game and now my savings is down to $20k, so I'm basically in the same place as far as owning a home goes." Endorph posted:to be fair(?) f2p games are hardly the only instance of this, the entire culture's all-in on that these days. can't let your kid watch a basketball game without him seeing 15 ads for SPORTS BETS DOT COM fan interactions at NBA games are now rapidly turning into players getting screamed at for missing a free throw and costing someone thousands of dollars on a bet.
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Oct 5, 2023 16:51
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just as i thought "good on epic for at least not pulling some unity poo poo to cover their losses" https://twitter.com/gamedevdotcom/status/1709951829960995235 quote:The news came from Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney himself in a presentation at Unreal Fest 2023. In a video captured by Fortnite Creative developer Immature (and spotted by Game World Observer), Sweeney explains that developers using Unreal Engine in the film, TV, automotive, and other industries can expect to start paying a per-seat licensing fee. quote:Because Epic is not changing the amount of royalties it collects for games made on Unreal Engine (it only takes five percent of revenue after developers earn over $1 million in revenue), this week's announcements will not likely drive away developers who rely on the game-making software. kliras fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 17:37
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kliras posted:just as i thought "good on epic for at least not pulling some unity poo poo to cover their losses" Yeah this really isn’t a big deal tbh. They probably should have done this a while ago
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Oct 5, 2023 17:42
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MarcusSA posted:Yeah this really isn’t a big deal tbh. Yeah, literally free as in beer with attached custom development from dedicated resources just doesn't work. I doubt most/any enterprise-outside-games users will balk at what will likely be fairly modest couple grand per year per seat licensing. They might even have a revenue threshold to protect tiny businesses.
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Oct 5, 2023 17:52
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Rip salary adjustments for people at those companies the year that turns on.
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Oct 5, 2023 17:53
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