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Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Honestly I thought it was a little suspicious when Correa pulled out a mini trash can on the field

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bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

N:

https://twitter.com/unitehere11/status/1710090660542615771

V: step on snek

rickiep00h
Aug 16, 2010

BATDANCE


I love that last line. If anything hit em where they're vulnerable: the superstitious gland.

Intruder
Mar 5, 2003

I got a taste for blown saves
well I guess I'm rooting for the Dodgers now

elentar
Aug 26, 2002

Every single year the Ivy League takes a break from fucking up the world through its various alumni to fuck up everyone's bracket instead.
hope no one sets car alarms off in the parking lot for just hours and hours all night

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

Intruder posted:

well I guess I'm rooting for the Dodgers now

yeah heckin serpientes

Sex Farm
Nov 17, 2017

I messaged my dad "the jays are such a bunch of loving bums" and "loving plugs" and he responded with "couldn't describe them any better. A bunch of loving clowns. Typical toronto garbage!!"

Love how the game brings fathers and sons together in their absolute hatred for a team they only loving root for because the loving expos left

live with fruit
Aug 15, 2010
The Dbacks should just kick a bunch of Mexican-Americans out of their homes and stay there, like the Dodgers did.

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

live with fruit posted:

The Dbacks should just kick a bunch of Mexican-Americans out of their homes and stay there, like the Dodgers did.

I mean if we're going this route, then no team is blameless I guarantee it

Forrest on Fire
Nov 23, 2012


Lmao gently caress this cheap rear end team

Still gently caress the Dodgers tho on the grounds of "They're The Dodgers"

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/OrangeFire_/status/1710298035534582143

Lol it really is a coinflip

Paper Tiger
Jun 17, 2007

🖨️🐯torn apart by idle hands

I wonder if there's some inflection point at which "record over the final x games of the season" ends up correlating significantly more with postseason success than overall season record.

Like, between two teams with the same season record, where one had a hot April/bad September and the other had a bad April/hot September, you could probably expect the latter team to do better in the playoffs, right?

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

IDK man, maybe it's just my team but I've seen them go from unstoppable offensive monster to getting 1 hit by sub .300 teams overnight. Like it's a joke that if the Astros score more than 10 it's a curse and they won't score more than 2 in any game for a week. Maybe that's every team though, I don't pay much attention to other teams.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
I think people have gone way too far in the “crapshoot” direction. Paper Tiger mentioned end of year record - I think there’s something there but imo it’s not so much “getting hot at the right time” as it is that teams can improve drastically around the deadline / with key players returning from injury etc (and of course the converse is also true).

Regular season win % isn’t a good proxy for team strength within the playoff field.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

GalacticAcid posted:


Regular season win % isn’t a good proxy for team strength within the playoff field.

Fangraphs certainly agrees

https://twitter.com/MLBMetrics/status/1710304001550438712

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Paper Tiger posted:

I wonder if there's some inflection point at which "record over the final x games of the season" ends up correlating significantly more with postseason success than overall season record.

Like, between two teams with the same season record, where one had a hot April/bad September and the other had a bad April/hot September, you could probably expect the latter team to do better in the playoffs, right?
someone at Fangraphs tried to find this or any other postseason “keys” to success and they found basically nothing. No clear trend toward hot teams in September, or “pitching and defense,” etc. Having the best offense helps a little more than the best pitching but the signal is weak.

It’s all chaos, embrace it.

Edit: those fangraphs odds probably reflect run differential more than record

Remaining teams ranked by run differential:
ATL - 231
LA - 201
TEX - 165
HOU - 129
BAL - 129
MIN - 119
PHI -81
AZ - -15 (not a typo, this NEGATIVE 15)

No idea why they have AZ above Baltimore tho, that’s rough

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Oct 6, 2023

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

bawfuls posted:

No idea why they have AZ above Baltimore tho, that’s rough

lol wtf

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
A lot of the statistical research into playoff strength up to this point is plainly insufficient. In my view the most fruitful line of inquiry in the coming years will start with the assumption that when the teams I prefer win, it’s because of talent and superior heart. However when the teams I prefer lose, why, that is random chance.

Dinosaurs!
May 22, 2003

Fangraphs gave the O’s abysmal odds to win the division too, so just more bulletin board material.

And research on postseason performance is going to be a race to quantify Vibes.

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

I am biased as all hell but it has been interesting to see the Orioles be largely disregarded as a serious contender after the season they've had. Defying expectations has sort of been a theme for this season so hopefully that continues into the postseason.

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



explosivo posted:

I am biased as all hell but it has been interesting to see the Orioles be largely disregarded as a serious contender after the season they've had. Defying expectations has sort of been a theme for this season so hopefully that continues into the postseason.

I think it's hard for teams to suddenly become good and win it all. I couldn't say offhand by any means but I'd be curious to know how many teams made the playoffs for the first time in a certain period of time (say 10+ years, as the Phillies are a great example) and won the WS.

As an aside I can't remember a more generally liked Philly playoff team in my lifetime than this one, and not in the way of "well, gently caress the Astros/Patriots/etc., so Philly is the lesser evil".

Last year obviously felt great, and I think people generally don't mind the Eagles and the Tush Push as of late, barring they aren't a fan of certain teams, but this year seems to have even better vibes. It honestly feels nice that people seem to really like the Phillies as an alternative team to their own right now.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


not me i am sick of philadelphia sports

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



R.D. Mangles posted:

not me i am sick of philadelphia sports

Hell, same

Bregor
May 31, 2013

People are idiots, Leslie.
I think Schwarber and Harper are cool dudes. That’s about it. But in this playoff field it makes them the least objectionable.

I’m also a Crimson Tide fan so I like Hurts and DeVonta.

The Flyers can gently caress off forever though

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Is Brandon Marsh still wet

explosivo
May 23, 2004

Fueled by Satan

zoux posted:

Is Brandon Marsh still wet

Oh you better believe it

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



My concern for Baltimore is that they don’t have much starting depth that they can rely on

They are going to be pitching at least two rookies in this series.

Tony Phillips
Feb 9, 2006
MN based ad agency employed guy checking in.

A PM in the next office over is on the phone with a client trying to set up some contest between a local furniture store (Schneiderman's I think) and a Houston based store.

10K bet to charity kind of thing. Absolutely 110% just hoping of for a little viral marketing thing / local 15 second fluff piece on the news.

LOL - they're talking about Matress Mack now. "He isn't the only guy that's allowed to do this kind of thing!"


Just heard the words "Looks like we're on, huh?"

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
Feel like it goes under-remarked that the wet guy’s surname is “Marsh”

Alfred P. Pseudonym
May 29, 2006

And when you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss goes 8-8

R.D. Mangles posted:

not me i am sick of philadelphia sports

Same

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Tony Phillips posted:

MN based ad agency employed guy checking in.

A PM in the next office over is on the phone with a client trying to set up some contest between a local furniture store (Schneiderman's I think) and a Houston based store.

10K bet to charity kind of thing. Absolutely 110% just hoping of for a little viral marketing thing / local 15 second fluff piece on the news.

LOL - they're talking about Matress Mack now. "He isn't the only guy that's allowed to do this kind of thing!"


Just heard the words "Looks like we're on, huh?"

Lack of faith in one's team right here (and failure to hedge in the betting market)

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

FlamingLiberal posted:

My concern for Baltimore is that they don’t have much starting depth that they can rely on

They are going to be pitching at least two rookies in this series.
Only two? That's cute!

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




triple sulk posted:

I think it's hard for teams to suddenly become good and win it all. I couldn't say offhand by any means but I'd be curious to know how many teams made the playoffs for the first time in a certain period of time (say 10+ years, as the Phillies are a great example) and won the WS.

There are a couple winners I think. 10 Giants (ughh), White Sox, Marlins, Angels (lol)

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

The Royals made the World Series in consecutive years but otherwise haven't been to the post season for 30 years and spent most of that time well below .500

Not sure if that qualifies for the "sudden success" category but it seems close to me

maffew buildings
Apr 29, 2009

too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned
good point raised about the Orioles having rookies starting. never in the history of baseball have rookie pitchers absolutely killed it in the playoffs

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

R.D. Mangles posted:

not me i am sick of philadelphia sports

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/woodwardsports/status/1708633899268469135

I trust that the consensus on this will be unanimous.

Artix
Apr 26, 2010

He's finally back,
to kick some tail!
And this time,
he's goin' to jail!
The only rookie we're expecting to start is Grayson Rodriguez? Bradish is in his second year and the only rookie we have in the bullpen at this point is Cano who is like, 29 isn't he? I don't know if DL Hall has exhausted his eligibility but he can't be far off, he's had a couple months between last year and this one.

Bregor
May 31, 2013

People are idiots, Leslie.

zoux posted:

I trust that the consensus on this will be unanimous.

‘27 is the winner but honorable mention to ‘57. That tiger has seen some poo poo.

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Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/woodwardsports/status/1708633899268469135

I trust that the consensus on this will be unanimous.

https://twitter.com/mike_is_bored/status/588389236711170048

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