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The first round of the playoffs had 4 fatalities. That's the most postseason eliminations in one day since they expanded the playoffs, right?Miz Kriss posted:
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Oct 5, 2023 04:28
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PLAYOFF LOSERS 
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R.D. Mangles posted:to be fair to the rays, I don't think their don't ever pay anyone except this one guy plan works if that one guy is likely going to jail Losing your best three pitchers to injury doesn't help either. Wander Franco is a moron, also. At least we got the stadium deal done, that's most important right now, we will have more shots in the future if we stop signing pedophiles
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Oct 5, 2023 13:58
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When no one has any interest in going to your games it's pretty funny that they think if they build another stadium basically in the parking lot of the old one that anyone would give a poo poo about them. But at least they can milk the city for 600 million.... So thats good. The franchise needs to be contracted or moved.
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Oct 5, 2023 14:16
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mcmagic posted:When no one has any interest in going to your games it's pretty funny that they think if they build another stadium basically in the parking lot of the old one that anyone would give a poo poo about them. But at least they can milk the city for 600 million.... So thats good. The franchise needs to be contracted or moved. Whatever, not my problem, that's the owner's problem now, as long as I get to go to games I don't give a poo poo about anyone that doesn't [e] the deal is pretty much done so they're not going anywhere lol
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Oct 5, 2023 14:37
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Dbacks are definitely my bandwagon choice after their savage beat down of the pathetic brew crew
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Oct 5, 2023 14:42
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Bismack Billabongo posted:Dbacks are definitely my bandwagon choice after their savage beat down of the pathetic brew crew They have basically 2 pitchers who can last 4 innings and a fast fun team full of people who are both really good at baseball and look like they should be doing a shift at Pep Boy's. They're my favorite team and my favorite type of team hopefully they don't get swept in the DS!
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Oct 5, 2023 14:48
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Guess I'll root for the O's now gently caress it, the only other team in our division I halfway like and has decent fans
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Oct 5, 2023 14:59
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I've been on the DBacks bandwagon for years, it's just that I have to cheer for the Cubs and Twins first. I'm glad the Dodgers' devil magic worked on Peralta  , but I wish he could be with the Dbacks for a deep playoff run. 
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Oct 5, 2023 15:20
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mcmagic posted:The Orioles will be next. you've been consistently wrong about them all year so i think they'll win the world series
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Oct 5, 2023 15:43
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I was on a work conference call this morning talking about the Twins game and one of our west coast reps chimed in about the Padres. Apparently their problem is lack of leadership because "Dominicans aren't leaders" and what they really need is a "Bryce Harper type" Can't say I recommend showing your whole rear end on a big corporate conference call like that but it sure is a take.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:25
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I was on a work conference call this morning talking about the Twins game and one of our west coast reps chimed in about the Padres. Apparently their problem is lack of leadership because "Dominicans aren't leaders" and what they really need is a "Bryce Harper type" They probably read that article blaming Manny Machado.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:06
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congrats to your coworker who may soon not be your coworker anymore
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Oct 5, 2023 20:37
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R.D. Mangles posted:to be fair to the rays, I don't think their don't ever pay anyone except this one guy plan works if that one guy is likely going to jail They have a whole starting rotation on the IL which doesn’t help matters either. And, uh, yeah, they played half their 99-win season with a guy worth 8-9 WAR at SS and the other half with a guy who might as well be swinging a pool noodle and fielding with one, too. Jesus, he played 110 games and the literal AL batting champ Yandy barely edged him out for fWAR over a full season. That loving sex criminal moron.
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Oct 5, 2023 20:52
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I was on a work conference call this morning talking about the Twins game and one of our west coast reps chimed in about the Padres. Apparently their problem is lack of leadership because "Dominicans aren't leaders" and what they really need is a "Bryce Harper type" Must be cool to work with Colin cowherd
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Oct 7, 2023 01:05
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That guy is probably fired but also curious how he felt comfortable enough to say those things on a corporate conference call
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Oct 10, 2023 03:53
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the_american_dream posted:That guy is probably fired but also curious how he felt comfortable enough to say those things on a corporate conference call Thought he had called into talk radio.
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Oct 10, 2023 03:56
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the_american_dream posted:That guy is probably fired but also curious how he felt comfortable enough to say those things on a corporate conference call It was chit chat before the meeting started and nothing happened. I'm still flabbergasted.
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Oct 10, 2023 04:07
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Every playoff elimination so far has been a sweep.  Miz Kriss posted:
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Oct 11, 2023 04:20
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Well we know minimum two won't be
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Oct 11, 2023 04:48
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Here you go:quote:The Texas Rangers lose the Championship Series 0-4 RIP in peace Rangers
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Oct 11, 2023 04:54
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The AL East should be contracted.
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Oct 11, 2023 05:24
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Stabbey_the_Clown posted:unlike a certain unnamed fan of a team which *checks notes* won their division and got a bye. Uh yeah if we keep doing it I like to believe they’ll choose to win another WS just to spite us
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Oct 11, 2023 06:32
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My 2024 prediction is that Elly de la Cruz will become the first true TTO player but he will only have Ks, triples and home runs.
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Oct 11, 2023 14:31
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CUBS DRONE IN THE DANGER ZONE The Story of the 2023 Chicago Cubs On September 30th 2022, the Chicago Cubs posted a video on their various social media accounts of a single-shot* drone flight through Wrigley Field and the surrounding neighborhood. If you haven't seen it, it's beautifully staged (and edited) to include all the familiar hits -- Harry and Ernie, the scoreboard, Murphy's, Seiya's back (no not BACK, well I mean he is BACK, but they literally filmed his back, you know what never mind) and so on. It's the perfect snapshot of Wrigleyville in all its glory. Unfortunately, there wasn't much else glorious about the 2022 version of the Cubs. I won't bore you with details, but they earned every bit of their 74-88 record. My prevailing memory of that year was the constant head-shaking about how they failed to move Willson Contreras at the deadline and the deteriorating relationship I had with yet another Cubs World Series champion. However, aside from the buzz surrounding a slick viral video, the 2023 Cubs had plenty of reasons for optimism. Enter Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger. Belli's one-year, prove-it deal marked the beginning of hope on the North Side, a smart gamble for a team that was just as likely to contend as it was to lose 90 games. At the very least, they could flip him at the deadline (if they were actually competent at such things) or simply walk away after another season of Bellinger approaching the Mendoza line. Three days later, news broke that Swanson inked a surprisingly reasonable 7-year, $177 million deal. This came after Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts had cashed in on much more lucrative contracts, and Carlos Correa had been linked to his seventh or eighth team, probably. Maligned as the fourth best shortstop choice at the start of free agency, the price tag cast Swanson in a very different light. Teams expecting to win 70 games for the next few years don't sign these sorts of deals, so once again the hope was that the Cubs would contend -- not necessarily in 2023, but soon! There were other moves of note -- Jameson Taillon, Michael Fulmer, Trey Mancini AND Eric Hosmer for some reason -- but there would still be a lot of familiar faces around the Friendly Confines. Flash forward to today. Based on preseason expectations, I think you have to say the season was successful. They won nine more games and scored exactly 162 more runs than the 2022 version. Thanks to the wild card format and some solid play in June and July, they had every reason to believe they could compete for a playoff spot. They tried to fill a huge hole on the infield corners by trading for Jeimer Candelario, and did so without giving up any prospects of note. They played their best baseball in August. And they contended into the final series of the season. So in a way, 2023 was a rousing success. But in another more accurate way, it was a devastating failure. On September 6th, Chicago beat San Francisco to move to 76-64. They were 1.5 games back of both Milwaukee for the division lead and Philadelphia for the top wild card spot. And then the pain started. They dropped three of four at home to the Diamondbacks. They lost two of three at Colorado. They got swept in Arizona. And they dropped two of three to Pittsburgh. On September 21st they are now 79-74, eight games behind Milwaukee, five games behind Philly, two games behind Arizona, and even with Cincinnati and Miami in the win column. A three-game sweep of the Rockies at Wrigley helped, but it just delayed the inevitable collapse against Atlanta and Milwaukee to close out the season. What was once a promising young team finding their groove and sneaking into the playoffs became a wet fart with nearly as many questions as they had at this time last year. In conclusion, the Cubs are a land of contrasts. Or, to put it another way, they now exist in a  danger zone between win-now and building for the future. Aside from long-term commitments to Swanson, Taillon (lol), Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner, they have a chance to begin shaping the next great Cubs team this off-season. But first...WHAT WENT RIGHT 1. The Middle Infield -- Chicago's top two players by bWAR were Swanson (4.8) and Hoerner (5.0). Both were perfectly cromulent at the plate, with around league average OPS+ and wRC+ numbers. But where they really shine is defense. Any one defensive metric is tough to put much stock into, but when they all agree that both parts of your double play tandem are exceptional, it's an encouraging sign. For Swanson, getting the first year of a new contract under his belt was an important step, and his increased comfort level with Chicago will hopefully help mitigate any dropoff in offensive production into his 30s. At the plate, an uptick to Dansby's ground ball rate and decrease in hard hit rate are concerning, but he also walked more and struck out less than in any of his previous three seasons in Atlanta, and his "back of the baseball card" numbers were pretty decent. Only six more seasons to go!  I wouldn't expect an offensive "breakout" for Hoerner, as he pretty much is who he is -- an all-fields spray hitter with ISOs in the low .100s who will end up on fantasy teams because stolen bases are BACK. His defense isn't as impressive on paper as Swanson's, but he generates more value with his terrific baserunning. Fangraphs has him as the second-best baserunner in baseball behind the ridiculous Corbin Carroll (  ) and it's not just the steals. He's smart and instinctual on the bases and avoids TOOTBLANs unlike some of his Cubbie brethren. Combine that with an OBP north of .340 and enough pop to send a few balls into the basket in left-center and you have a pretty drat good young player.I've already highlighted Swanson's mega-contract, but just before the season started Nico signed a arb-year buyout deal that keeps him on the North Side through 2026. Thankfully, second and short are very much the "set it and forget it" part of the Cubs for the next few seasons. 2. The Bellinger Signing -- Following his 2019 NL MVP season, Bellinger's performance on the field took a nosedive. The COVID year was a weird one and could possibly be written off as small sample noise, but in 2021 he was extremely bad. He posted a .165/.240/.302 line, good for a 44 OPS+, and only slightly rebounded to not-abysmal in 2022. So when the Cubs signed him to a one-year deal with a mutual option, no one knew what they were buying or whether he would still be in Cubbie blue come August. In fact, there wasn't a clear answer a few months into the season, as a torrid April gave way to a homerless May and June with an IL stint to boot. And then the calendar flipped to July, and Belli took off. From that point on he hit 19 homers, drove in 75, and almost single-handedly catapulted the Cubs offense into contention. He also provided some much-needed stability at CF and 1B, depending on which crusty veteran David Ross was favoring that month between Trey Mancini and Mike Tauchman. But now comes the unpleasant part. Holding him was the right decision at the deadline, but Bellinger will almost certainly decline the mutual option and become an unrestricted free agent. Does Jed Hoyer attempt to bring him back? If not, what's the plan at first and center? It was a fun ride and Belli seems like an incredibly chill dude, and if this is one-and-done for his Cubs career then so be it. It's just a shame that there's not something more. 3. Justin Steele -- From this year's Baseball Prospectus: "Steele spent the (2022) summer as one of the better arms in baseball, building the confidence of Cubs fans that the light at the end of the tunnel is near." Seems good! They also mention his back issues that limited him to 119 IP in that season, meaning he would need to translate his success across more starts if the Cubs were going to contend. In that respect, Steele delivered and them some. He maintained his strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate in half, did it across 173.1 innings, and had an NL-leading 2.49 ERA after his September 9th start against the Diamondbacks. In his next two starts he looked out of gas, and his outside shot at the NL Cy Young slipped away. But that should not diminish Steele's arrival atop the Cubs rotation. With just over two full years of service time, we now enter the arb-year song and dance with Cubs brass. Will they sign him to a team-friendly deal to eat up some of those messy arbitration hearings, a la Nico Hoerner? Will they piss off an excellent young starter by trying to pinch pennies? Will Tom Ricketts even know what's going on with the team as he writes check after check to GOP super PACs? Time will tell I suppose. 4. The Rest of the Pitching Staff -- During the first week of the season, the Cubs rotation lined up with Marcus Stroman, Steele, Taillon, Drew Smyly, and Hayden Wesneski. Kyle Hendricks would've taken one of those spots but he didn't appear until just before Memorial Day weekend due to a shoulder injury. Stro was the Cubs de facto ace in 2022, but he's better cast as a mid-rotation workhorse. Unfortunately even that would've been asking too much, and for the second straight season he couldn't eclipse 140 IP. Still, he was effective when he pitched, and his contributions during the first half of the season should not be minimized. Stroman will probably decline his player option and hit the free agent market, one that will be rich with starting pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing Stro back with the team, but I also don't want to see too many years or dollar signs in his contract. Taking a gamble on Taillon wasn't the worst decision of the last off-season (we'll get to that later). He had a decent bounceback year in the Bronx with ERA and FIP numbers under 4 and some good health to boot. But acquiring starting pitching on the free agent market is expensive, and the four-year $68 million deal for Taillon isn't looking so hot right now. The best thing I can say about him is he ate up 154.1 innings and performed at MLB replacement level. At this point he's a 4th or 5th starter on a contender, and whether or not the Cubs realize that will be an indication of where they are as a franchise. Back in Spring Training, there was a ton of hype in the fantasy community for Wesneski and his ridiculous sweeper. During his cup of coffee last year, he showed good swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to get to the third time through the order. Command and control, and whether you could depend on him to take the mound every fifth game, were still up in the air however. Well, gentle goons, guess what happened. Having two plus pitches is good, but not when you can't locate them. WezNASTY's strikeout rate fell, his HR and walk rates went up, and by mid-June he was out of the rotation. He did end up settling in as a decent bullpen arm, albeit one prone to the occasional meltdown. He still walks too many guys, and should be kept away from an SP spot for the foreseeable future. Once Hendricks was back, he was BACK. Cool Kyle turned in another signature season of low walk rate and soft contact goodness. It was a nice correction after two pretty uncool seasons in 2021-22, and will hopefully convince the Cubs to bring him back on a pretty reasonable $16 million club option. The rest of the staff is what it is. Smyly is fine as a swingman or someone to throw at a lefty-heavy lineup, but he's not blocking anyone. Javier Assad has pretty brutal strikeout-minus-walk rates for a reliever, but is able to keep the damage to a minimum with some pretty unsustainable BABIP and HR rates. His FIP was over a full run higher than his ERA both this season and in 2022. Jordan Wicks, the 21st overall pick in the 2021 draft, has good command and showed some flashes but likely needs more seasoning to refine his arsenal. Pitcher List has Wicks listed as featuring six different pitches, and only the changeup rates as a true plus offering, though the sinker and curveball could get there. And then there's the bullpen. Adbert Alzolay emerged as the best option to close, not due to killer stuff and high strikeout numbers but because he's the one bullpen arm with a BB/9 under 3. Fulmer was signed to be a high-leverage guy, and went from very bad in April/May, to very good in June/July, to pretty bad and hurt to end the year. He's an unrestricted free agent now. Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. were occasionally effective but clearly stretched whenever asked to close for more than a game or two. Brad Boxberger and Brandon Hughes pitched for the Cubs in 2023, or so I'm told, as they were hurt most of the year. Chicago will almost certainly decline Boxberger's mutual option, and Hughes is ticketed for last lefty in the pen (or Iowa). Jose Cuas is a journeyman whose best attribute is the angle of his hat brim. He keeps the ball in the yard but he also had a 14% walk rate with the Cubs. So... how were they any good? Chicago was 14th in the league in ERA, 12th in FIP, 9th in pitching fWAR, and tied for 4th (!) in ERA+. To be honest, I read the names of all the pitchers I just talked about and it seems like a pretty lovely collection. Credit to pitching coach Tommy Hottovy for squeezing a very solid year out of this group. 5. The Offensive Stars -- As I mentioned before, the Cubs scored exactly 162 more runs in 2023 than they did in 2022. That's pretty good! But none of their individual players have eye-popping numbers. How did they do it? They walked, and they hit a few more dingers. Chicago's walk rate went from 8.3% to 9.2%, helping to earn them a .330 OBP this season which was good for 6th in the league. Happ and Suzuki made modest but very real improvements in both ISO and walk rate. And even though Swanson's 22 HRs aren't a ton, they're a dramatic improvement over the flotsam the Cubs started opposite Nico last year. Chicago's 196 dingers placed them only 15th best in baseball, but combined with that stellar OBP it was more than enough runs to get the job done. And more importantly for this humble Cubsposter, it felt like a cohesive plan coming together. From the top of the lineup (no not you Tauchman) on down, it always felt like something good could happen, especially when some combination of Hoerner-Happ-Belli-Seiya was due up. Where do they go from here? Those taters from Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel are cool and good, but their strikeout rates and OBPs are bad enough to hesitate giving them full-time roles. For Morel's part, he did seem to settle into a good rhythm as DH, and I'd be happy if that ends up being the plan in 2024. Happ and Suzuki are fine players, but are being paid like stars and will need to continue to produce. If Morel isn't the DH, can we maybe save that for Happ and get him out of LF? Yan Gomes can't play forever, and Miguel Amaya can't throw anybody out, so he needs to hit if he's going to stick behind the plate. Candelario provided a nice spark but will probably walk in free agency. And then there's the massive hole Bellinger's likely departure leaves in the lineup. Will there be help from the farm? Well... WHAT WENT WRONG 1. The Kids Are Not Alright -- According to Baseball Prospectus's 2023 Futures Guide, the top Cubs prospect ready to contribute in 2023 was Matt Mervis. A quote for all your Merverts out there -- "...he's likely to settle in as a .280, 25-homer bat in the majors with the occasional 30-homer spike. Mervis is not going to contribute much with the glove, but for a bat-only prospect, it's a pretty swanky bat."  Instead, we now come to the worst move(s) of the off-season for the Cubs and possibly any team in Major League Baseball. They added not one but two broken-rear end first baseman to block Mervis. On January 13th, they signed Eric Hosmer to a one-year deal for under a million bucks. Okay, no worries, it's a cheap insurance policy if Mervis absolutely pancakes. And then a week later, they sign Trey Mancini to a two-year, $14 million deal, presumably bidding against only themselves for a guy who had been a completely league-average bat over the past two seasons. Mancini enjoyed a breakout year for Baltimore in 2019, slashing .291/.364/.535 which was good for a 132 wRC+. Unfortunately he couldn't build on that good work after a colon cancer diagnosis and subsequent treatment kept him out for the COVID-shortened season of 2020. Thankfully Mancini has been in remission since, but has failed to re-capture his offensive production. When the Cubs broke camp in Mesa, not only was Mervis missing from the big league roster, but Christopher Morel was also optioned to AAA Iowa. Their opening day lineup featured Hosmer at 1B, Mancini at DH, and Miles Mastrobuoni in RF! Seems bad! Now the Cubs won that game (eat poo poo Brewers) but based on that lineup it seemed likely that 2023 was yet another year of rebuilding, retooling, trusting the process, or whatever the new management speak is for we're not really trying to win. Mancini posted wRC+ numbers in the 80s in April and May with nearly full playing time, and those were his best months. Hosmer also got a lot of run in April and did Hosmer-esque things, but by May he was essentially a bench bat and was DFA'd on May 19th. Mervis was recalled on May 5th, and three days later Morel joined him. LET'S loving GO, or so I thought. They Cubs had played .500 ball to that point, and I hoped this would be the spark to move them into contention. For his part, Morel hit the ground running to the tune of 9 dingers and a 177 wRC+ in May. He settled in as a super utility type and eventual DH, with 429 PAs of a 119 wRC+, .260 ISO, and 26 dingers.  Unfortunately, Mervis struggled. He saw sporadic playing time, especially against left-handed pitching, and slashed a meager .167/.242/.289 in 99 PAs. He was demoted to Iowa on June 15th. At this point, the Cubs were 30-37, in 4th place in the Central and ahead of only Colorado, Washington, and St. Louis (lmao) in the NL. In mid-June David Ross was firmly committed to the Mike Tauchman Experience, moving Belli to 1B, and Matt Mervis stayed in Iowa for the rest of the season. And even though Hosmer was long gone, there was Mancini. He appeared in roughly half of Chicago's games in June and July with truly horrific offensive production. Mercifully the deadline deal for Jeimer Candelario made Mancini completely useless, and he was DFA'd and released soon after. Did the Cubs lose a few games in April and May where they could've played Morel or Mervis over Hosmer or Mancini? In Morel's case, abso-loving-lutley. When compared to some of his teammates, Morel's production is downright Bondsian. Would team context suggest that playing Mancini over Mervis in June and July made sense? No loving way. A rebuilding team should be eager to see what Mervis can do with full playing time, and a contending team can't stomach a 31-year-old 1B-RF player with a 74 wRC+. But wait! There's more! Nelson Velazquez, a 24-year-old power hitting corner OF/DH prospect, never got into Ross's good graces and was jettisoned to Kansas City for Jose Cuas. Velazquez went on to hit 14 dingers in 40 games for the Royals. Playing him as a RF/DH type while Suzuki was injured might've made a lot more sense than paying Mancini $14 million. 2. I Don't Know's On Third -- In 2021, Patrick Wisdom enjoyed enough of a breakout to give himself serious consideration as the short-term solution at the hot corner. Sure, he posted a 40.8% strikeout rate that season, but look at that power! Last year, he cut down on the strikeouts but also gave away a lot of that power, posting an unimpressive 104 wRC+ to go with a pretty rough season defensively. There is some universe where A Wise Man kept his strikeouts down while still tapping into his power and emerged as a good, cheap 3B option for the next few years. And for a while, it seemed like it might actually happen. By the time the calendar flipped to May, Wisdom already had 10 dingers and a bad-but-not-disgusting 33.3% strikeout rate. Unfortunately he cooled off in May and cratered in June before a wrist injury sent him to the IL. After rejoining the team in July, Ross brought him along slowly, and he never really got back on track. Alternatively, if the team was looking for a defensive home for Morel, a logical choice would be third base. But Ross never trusted him there, and Christopher Whiskers only saw four starts at 3B the entire season. So... Nick Madrigal. The former White Sox prospect known for an exceptional hit tool had been the Cubs sometimes-second baseman last year and was tabbed for a backup role this season. But for some unknown reason, his ability to stand on the infield with a glove on his hand while also being a professional out-maker is just what Ross wanted at an even more premium offensive position. To his credit, Madrigal hit better in 2023, if only because 2022 was an unmitigated disaster at the plate. Also to his credit, his defense at third was pretty good depending on your metric of choice. He never passed the eye test in my opinion, in part because every throw across the diamond seemingly took every ounce of strength he had, but the results were there. Yet as a sum-of-all-parts kind of guy where those parts are good defense and a punchless bat, he's not a serious team's everyday third baseman. Chicago seemed to recognize this at the trade deadline and acquired Candelario. Unfortunately it also coincided with Tauchman's fall from grace, forcing Belli back to CF and Candy splitting time between 1B, 3B, and the IL with a back strain. This meant way too much Madrigal for anyone's good. The long-term plan at third is currently Matt Shaw, the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft. An experienced college bat, Shaw made it all the way to Tennessee this year and could be up as soon as next summer. Or he could also struggle with advanced pitching and be stuck in Knoxville all year. Point is, the 2024 Cubs will need a better answer at third until Shaw is ready. If their signings of Mancini and Hosmer are any indication, I don't trust them to do anything remotely useful. 3. Expectation vs. Reality -- As I've said before, back in April everyone around the Cubs expected them to improve on 2022 but not really contend. They made roster moves and ran out lineups like a team whose ceiling was a .500 ballclub. And early in the year, despite a very positive run differential, they were just that. I'm sure the front office was happy -- some key pieces were performing well, but their record still indicated that they could be sellers at the deadline. The low point* may have been on June 11th, a 13-3 shellacking at the hands of the Giants, dropping them to a 28-37 record. Same ol' Cubbies. A month later, they were showing signs of life. Following that awful WezNASTY game in San Francisco, the Cubs won 9 of their next 10, and by the All Star break they were only five games under .500. Coming out of the break, after dropping two of three to the Red Sox they won six straight series and carried their wild card hopes into August. Suddenly a team that everyone had assumed would be flipping Bellinger, Stroman, and anything else that wasn't nailed down was talking about making a run. The trade for Candelario happened. They went 18-9 in August. Everything was coming up Milhouse. And this is why you shouldn't plan for mediocrity, and you can't give away games in April and May. With the new playoff format, just about every team can be a contender. And suddenly, by August the Cubs were very much a contender. The attitude of, "Well they're doing just fine now, playing Mancini or Hosmer or Madrigal didn't hurt them much!" is flawed logic and also infuriating given how the last chapter of this season unfolded. Not only that, but covering up deficiencies in the lineup and the rotation is much harder to do at the deadline when more teams are buying. You always want a franchise with a shot at the postseason to go for it, but picking up Candelario and Jose Cuas was unlikely to get them over the hump and into true contention for the NL pennant. So where was I? Oh yes, a torrid August! And then... well I covered all that at the top. What I thought was the low point for me came on September 21st, as Jose Oviedo tossed six scoreless and comeback attempts in the 8th and 9th fell short, and the Cubs lost to the Pirates 8-6. After that, two of their last three series were against Atlanta and Milwaukee, and pretty much every Cubs fan knew how the story would end. Five days later, with the last glimmer of hope still alive, one final kick in the teeth. Seiya Suzuki's error against the Braves was the actual, literal, undisputed low point of the season, not only for the team but for a star player that had struggled to find and then seemingly found his confidence. The team listlessly played out the rest of their schedule and wound up with 83 wins -- nine more than last year, but one too few to tie for the last wild card spot.  *extremely Jed Bartlet voice* WHAT'S NEXT? For a big market, almost-wild card team, the Cubs are extremely malleable. Stroman and Bellinger will walk. They are only committed to a few big money pieces, and that's assuming they pick up club options on Hendricks and Gomes. Many of their other contributors are under team control for at least a few more seasons. They'll have to pony up some cash for Steele, either through arbitration or a long-term extension, but it will still likely be a bargain. They're set at middle infield, corner outfield, and when they pick up Gomes's team option, catcher. That said, their off-season needs, in no particular order, are: 1. Shohei Ohtani -- WALLET THIS MAN. Tommy Ricketts, seriously. WALL. ET. DO IT.  2. Starting Pitching -- Steele is very good. He also made the jump from 94.1 to 119 to 173.1 innings pitched over the last three seasons. Expecting 170+ IP next season might be dangerous for all parties involved. Behind Steele, there's Taillon... gently caress. I hope to have Hendricks back, and Smyly has one more year left before a mutual option in 2025. That leaves one spot open in the rotation, maybe two if Smyly ends up being a swingman, and maybe three if they don't bring back Hendricks. The best in-house options we saw this year are Wicks ( ), Assad (), and Wesneski ( ), all of whom I've already talked about. Cade Horton, the 7th overall pick in the 2022 draft, pitched across three levels this year and had excellent results at every stop. The former Oklahoma Sooner and Tommy John victim has been a fast riser, but is still likely ticketed for Tennessee or Iowa to start 2024. Ben Brown was picked up in the David Robertson trade last year and continued to blossom at Tennessee, but a promotion to Iowa brought with it some walk and homer issues. He'll need to clean that up in AAA before getting the call. Caleb Kilian, acquired from the Giants in the Kris Bryant deal, got all of one MLB start back in April and pitched like Just A Guy in Iowa.There are a ton of starting pitchers on the free agent market this off-season. Blake Snell is the headliner, along with Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, and Luis Severino to name a few. I'm sure Clayton Kershaw will sign another one-year deal with the Dodgers if he chooses to pitch at all. A few others have player options or opt-outs, like Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, and the aforementioned Stroman. Last but certainly not least are international free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga. Yamamoto has been on the MLB radar for years, and his performance in the World Baseball Classic couldn't have come at a better time as he helped Japan win their third WBC championship. Just 25 years old, Yamamoto posted a 1.16 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over 171 pro innings in Japan. Teams will likely break the bank for his services, which could price out the Cubs if they choose to spend on other needs. Imanaga, a veteran lefty, had a slightly less impressive 2.66 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 159 innings, but has been a reliable workhorse for much of the last five seasons. Picking up Imanaga could be a savvy move as other teams will focus on Snell and Yamamoto. 3. Center -- The happiest solution here would be to simply re-sign Cody Bellinger. But even that might be a dicey proposition. When he declines his mutual option, he will almost certainly be looking for a multi-year deal worth over $20 million AAV, and he'll probably get it from someone. The Cubs might not want to tie up that much money with a player as streaky as Bellinger, even though he's dope as gently caress and is most certainly BACK. In 2022, Christopher Morel spent most of his defensive time in center. Yet even when Bellinger shifted to first, Morel started all of 10 games there this year. In September the Cubs gave a cup of coffee to two possible replacements in center -- Alexander Canario and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Canario, also picked up in the Kris Bryant trade, has plus power, a strong arm, and very little polish to his game. A better fit in right, he played center sparingly at times but isn't lost defensively. Injuries slowed his start to the season but he more than held his own in Iowa, translating his raw power into a .524 slugging percentage and .248 ISO in AAA. Crow-Armstrong's carrying tool is his defense, which scouts have repeatedly said is Gold Glove-caliber in center. Acquired from the Mets in the Javy Baez deal (lol) PCA started hitting for power for the first time at High-A South Bend in 2022, and continued raking to start the year in Tennessee. He earned a promotion to Iowa and finally the North Side, but looked overwhelmed at the plate and lost on the bases during his brief taste of the majors. Unless he goes on a tear in Spring Training, PCA will almost certainly head back to Iowa to start 2024. Other free agent options for center are pretty bleak. Kevin Kiermaier is excellent with the glove but hasn't been above average offensively since 2017. At this point in his career, Harrison Bader is basically Diet Kiermaier. Michael A. Taylor is the ultimate "we don't want to rush a prospect so sign this guy" free agent. Most of the other outfield options would be stretched as an every day or even strong-side platoon center fielder. Given the state of the free agent pool, re-signing Bellinger or properly evaluating the organizational talent are paramount. Or, you know, soon to be 33-year-old Mike Tauchman still has arb years left. Don't get any ideas, Jed! 4. The Infield Corners -- As I said before, if the Cubs wanted to find a defensive home for Christopher Morel, the most logical choices would be center or third. There's been some lip service in the press about making this a priority, but I'll believe it when I see it. Madrigal, Wisdom, and Mastrobuoni are all under team control, but... yeah. The Matt Mervis Coronation never happened, and the Cubs don't know who they'll send to the cold corner on Opening Day 2024. Do you believe in Mervis's excellent 440 PAs in Iowa, or his lovely 100 PAs in Chicago? Do they bring back Bellinger or Candelario? There aren't really any other prospects in the high minors suited for first, which is good because 1B prospects have to hit a ton to produce any value. The next closest to relevance is Haydn McGeary, a 23-year-old who hit okay at AA, which is the definition of underwhelming. I've already talked about Matt Shaw, who should be ticketed for third base soon, but not just yet. Chase Strumpf has split time between 2B and 3B in the high minors (and the name would be fun to hear Boog say all the time) but barring a breakout he's as much a low-ceiling organizational soldier as Mastrobuoni or Jared Young. All of this is to say, if you don't buy Morel playing the field or Mervis playing at all, Chicago could look elsewhere. The big corner infield free agent in this cycle is Matt Chapman, whose excellent defense and power bat make him a consistently valuable player. Teaming him up with Swanson and Hoerner would round out the infield defense quite nicely, but he's also on the wrong side of 30 and any loss of bat speed could kill his offensive value. There are some grandpas available -- Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas, and if he declines his player option Justin Turner. That list of names is giving me terrible vibes that Hoyer will "pull a Hosmer" with one of them. The only other third baseman of note on the market is Candelario. At first, there aren't any obvious upgrades on the market. Rhys Hoskins is coming off a lost season and had some red flags about his profile even before the injury. Joey Gallo is who we thought he was. Josh Bell has a $16.5 million player option that he actually might take. The other options are older and crustier than Trey Mancini was at this time last year. 5. Betting the Farm -- One of the most encouraging things about this franchise is the farm system. In rankings updated post-draft, MLB dot com ranks them as the 4th best in the league, Bleacher Report has them 5th, and Fangraphs have them 1st in future value (now that some Orioles have graduated). I've talked about plenty of their top guys -- Crow-Armstrong and Shaw should see the lineup consistently by the end of 2024, and some combo of Wicks, Horton, and Brown can contribute to the rotation sooner rather than later. Miguel Amaya played the part of Yan Gomes's caddy this year, holding his own with the stick until a September swoon, but not really playing much defense behind the dish. He lost a year of catching reps in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he could improve... or he could be a 1B/DH-type, in which case he'll need to hit a lot more. The next wave of outfielders is headlined by Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, acquired in the Yu Darvish and Anthony Rizzo deals respectively. Both have plus-plus power and rate as pretty good defensively -- Alcantara is a center fielder by trade while Caissie is ticketed for a corner. Caissie spent all year at Tennessee while Alcantara only appeared there briefly, but they both raked at their levels and Alcantara is also currently getting extra reps at the Arizona Fall League. Danny Palencia is a relief prospect -- if such a thing exists -- with a plus-plus fastball and not much idea where it's going. He started a few games in AA but never lasted more than three innings, and was being used exclusively in short relief stints in Iowa and Chicago. If Shaw doesn't stick at third, 2021 draftee James Triantos could state his case soon after. A hard-hitting high school shortstop, he's played mostly 3B and 2B in his pro career, and while the offensive numbers aren't eye-popping he was a 20-year-old coming off an injury at High-A South Bend and held his own. 2024 will be a big year for his development. Brennen Davis used to be mentioned in the same breath as Alcantara and Caissie, but his development hit a speed bump last year and things only got worse in 2023. He's young enough to turn it around, but the hit tool has disappeared, and you still need to make contact to tap into your power. Everyone else of note is either a teenager or hasn't had enough pro reps to mention here. But overall, it is a deep and talented system. So what's the strategy? Prospect hugging and hoping everything comes together like it did in 2016? Realizing there's a short window where the current core of players can contend and cashing in some prospect chips to boost the MLB roster? Whichever direction Jed Hoyer chooses to go, it's a good problem to have. But given the state of the free agent market, particularly when shopping for CF and 1B, dealing from the farm might be the best way to add value. Let's just hope you don't look foolish in three to five years. WHY ARE YOU STILL READING THIS, TIME FOR TL;DR The 2024 Chicago Cubs should contend for a playoff spot, with an eye towards becoming one of the elite teams in the National League by 2025 and beyond. In my opinion, they have successfully escaped the danger zone between rebuilding and contending, and should have short-term success in mind. But does the Cubs front office think so? The road began with smart moves like calculated risks on Bellinger and Swanson, signing Hoerner to a team-friendly extension, and acquiring high ceiling prospects. It needs to continue this off-season with more dramatic improvements to the MLB roster. Or they can continue to be mediocre, oscillate between 75-85 wins, and still make gobs of money for the Ricketts. Tough call!
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Oct 11, 2023 16:00
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I don't want to say goodbye to Cody please sign my friend for ~30 more years
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Oct 11, 2023 16:55
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That's one of the best Cubsposts I've ever read. Thank you!
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Oct 11, 2023 18:14
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 I cannot believe the Cubs thought the Mancini/Hosmer poo poo was a good idea. I somehow got into protracted fights with actual certified Cubsposters™ telling me that no actually it was fine and it still blows my mind. Absolutely wasted a season where they could have given Mervis more rope and really seen if he can be a guy or not. FWIW Mervis's batted ball profile was actually quite solid and the xStats say he should have hit quite a bit better than he did. Hopefully he gets a chance but I expect he's either tradebait or blocked next year by Wisdom or some other loser.
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Oct 11, 2023 19:26
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Hosmer was fine as a practically free replacement level 1b, signing Mancini after that didn't make a lot of sense since the Cubs didn't need 2 filler guys and he cost actual $$$. In retrospect it probably would have been bad to just hand 1b over to Mervis and hope he figures it out at the MLB level with no backup, which was the argument I made at the beginning of the season.
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Oct 11, 2023 21:25
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genuinely glad that Dansby found a landing place where he is appreciated, some other situations would’ve ripped him apart
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Oct 11, 2023 21:31
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Dansby is a lot cooler than I gave him credit for. I really wanted the Cubs to sign Trea Turner and Dansby felt like the worst of the SS class but he is really fantastic defensively and well his bat is streaky he's still a very good hitter.
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Oct 11, 2023 21:37
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Popete posted:Dansby is a lot cooler than I gave him credit for. I really wanted the Cubs to sign Trea Turner and Dansby felt like the worst of the SS class but he is really fantastic defensively and well his bat is streaky he's still a very good hitter. Dansby was also the best hitter of the four big SS's through till about August when Dansby completely forgot how to hit and Turner rebounded into one of the hottest bats in the league. I'll take best-in-class defense at SS along with a bat that has a floor of being league average. Popete posted:Hosmer was fine as a practically free replacement level 1b 
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Oct 11, 2023 21:47
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elentar posted:genuinely glad that Dansby found a landing place where he is appreciated, some other situations would’ve ripped him apart I didn't put this in my post, but my 9yo daughter started watching the Cubs with me this season and said of Swanson: "Ooh, he's handsome..." #analysis Anyway Mansby is cool and good, do not quote this back at me in 2028 please and thank you And thanks for the kind words, Cubsposters. It was a labor of
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Oct 11, 2023 21:57
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Cubsposting: when it's good it's great and when it's bad it's still cubposting. (This example is great to be clear.)
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Oct 11, 2023 22:08
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Sydin posted:Dansby was also the best hitter of the four big SS's through till about August when Dansby completely forgot how to hit and Turner rebounded into one of the hottest bats in the league. I'll take best-in-class defense at SS along with a bat that has a floor of being league average. Was Hosmer bad? Yes. But at the beginning of the season for a league minimum pick up if you looked at his past few seasons he was perfectly fine as a filler. It didn't work out and he was cut after a month, still doesn't mean it was a bad move. Luckily Cody was able to fill in otherwise the Cubs would have been royally screwed until they signed Candelario.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:11
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And in contrast to Bregor's very good post I will continue to derail any discussion into HOSCHAT
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Oct 11, 2023 22:11
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Popete posted:Was Hosmer bad? Yes. But at the beginning of the season for a league minimum pick up if you looked at his past few seasons he was perfectly fine as a filler. It didn't work out and he was cut after a month, still doesn't mean it was a bad move. Luckily Cody was able to fill in otherwise the Cubs would have been royally screwed until they signed Candelario. Hosmer didn't exist in a vacuum though and it made no sense to bring him in - even if it was for the league minimum - when they had Mervis basically ready to go and a perfect in-between sort of year they could have used to evaluate him. It also made no sense to hang onto him at all after paying actual money to Mancini. And look yeah maybe Mervis is not the truth and even in after getting 400+ AB's this season looked like poo poo. Sucks, but in that universe the Cubs at least now have an answer as to if he could step up next year to help the team or if they need to look at other options. Instead he's a big fat question mark the Cubs will be even less inclined to give runway next year because they want to field guys who can definitely impact a winning club. It's not even just about Hosmer being bad, it was bad strategy because the opportunity cost to waste those AB's on him (and later, waste them on Mancini) was so high.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:18
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As cool as being in Wrigley for the the Velazquez grand slam was, there was absolutely zero room for another outfielder on the roster. Better that he's playing in the majors somewhere. Otherwise, he'd be rotting in Iowa forever.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:20
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Sydin posted:Hosmer didn't exist in a vacuum though and it made no sense to bring him in - even if it was for the league minimum - when they had Mervis basically ready to go and a perfect in-between sort of year they could have used to evaluate him. It also made no sense to hang onto him at all after paying actual money to Mancini. And look yeah maybe Mervis is not the truth and even in after getting 400+ AB's this season looked like poo poo. Sucks, but in that universe the Cubs at least now have an answer as to if he could step up next year to help the team or if they need to look at other options. Instead he's a big fat question mark the Cubs will be even less inclined to give runway next year because they want to field guys who can definitely impact a winning club. It's not even just about Hosmer being bad, it was bad strategy because the opportunity cost to waste those AB's on him (and later, waste them on Mancini) was so high. What I'm saying is Hosmer makes sense in that he plays backup to Mervis this season, if he struggles and the Cubs are contending hopefully Hosmer can give you what he has pretty consistenly done over his career (a very average but competent 1b). The Cubs had 0 legit 1b going into the season and calling up Mervis to assume that role with no real backup just doesn't make sense. Hosmer fills that role to a tee, the part that doesn't make sense is then going out and signing Mancini who fills a similar role but costs actual money and then having to give both guys playing time and delaying Mervis call up.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:24
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Popete posted:calling up Mervis to assume that role with no real backup just doesn't make sense. I guess where we ultimately diverge in our opinions is that I think it does make sense. Fielding Hosmer means the Cubs were okay with mediocrity at 1B, so why not give that rope to your rookie and see what he is or isn't rather than give it to Hosmer who doesn't help your future at all? As for providing backup, going into the season it looked like all of Wisdom/Morel/Madrigal were going to be fighting for reps at 3B and either of Wisdom/Morel could have spelled Mervis there from time to time. A Mervis/Morel tandem in particular would have been way smarter than bringing in Hosmer and banishing Morel to Iowa to start the season.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:30
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Cubs suck rear end, in my opinion. Sorry your prospects weren’t good enough to beat out some washed old guys.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:32
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