(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Driving a submarine in the Baltic must be some kind of living loving nightmare. Shallow, turbulent, and wired for sound.
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Oct 10, 2023 22:16
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MrYenko posted:Driving a submarine in the Baltic must be some kind of living loving nightmare. Shallow, turbulent, and wired for sound. It's something that during WW2 must have driven submariners mad in the Baltic during the summers when it never gets dark so you can't safely surface to run the diesels to load batteries.
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Oct 10, 2023 22:22
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MrYenko posted:Driving a submarine in the Baltic must be some kind of living loving nightmare. Shallow, turbulent, and wired for sound. Nowadays, it's not so bad. Some of our modern (German) submarines can stay submerged for months, or until they literally run out of food. They're also deadly silent. Nothing stopping them from going into the Baltics for a week or two, do recon, then go back to Wilhelmshaven undetected.
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Oct 10, 2023 22:38
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https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/10/the-lancet-kamikaze-drone-is-russias-most-effective-weapon-and-it-is-getting-deadlier/quote:At first only a handful of Lancet strike videos were posted each month. But this January, 22 Lancet attack videos appeared. That number rose to 62 in May, and 124 in August. The makers claim they are mass-producing the weapon at a new facility, so what we are seeing now is only the start. This growth in production is taking place despite the fact that the Lancet uses Western-made electronics, which in theory should be impossible for Russia to obtain. A good write-up on Lancets and other loitering munitions. This squares with a report from a few weeks ago, that Ukraine's biggest worries right now are countering Lancets and Russian EW.
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Oct 11, 2023 01:58
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Israel is very likely about to start using a lot of artillery rounds in Gaza. Even moreso if things really heat up on the Lebanon border. I don't know what Israels artillery ammunition stocks are like but I think there's a very real chance they will start to run low and ask the US for more. I wonder how the Biden administration is going to handle that request when so many rounds are needed by Ukraine right now?
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Oct 11, 2023 06:00
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Charliegrs posted:Israel is very likely about to start using a lot of artillery rounds in Gaza. Even moreso if things really heat up on the Lebanon border. I don't know what Israels artillery ammunition stocks are like but I think there's a very real chance they will start to run low and ask the US for more. I wonder how the Biden administration is going to handle that request when so many rounds are needed by Ukraine right now? Are they likely to need that much artillery? Israel has complete air supremacy, and the entire Gaza Strip is quite small. They're unlikely to end up in protracted artillery duels and trench warfare, and all of Hamas has fewer fighters than Russia lost in Bakhmut alone. Seems like Israel would be able to go pretty far with what would amount to a few days of Ukrainian consumption, unless I'm missing something.
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Oct 11, 2023 06:41
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While previously declaring our old F-16's as too old and hard to maintain to send to Ukraine, Belgium has now pivoted and is going to supply them. Starting in 2025. Better late than never I guess, but if they're still needed in 2025 I hope it's because Putin refuses to admit defeat and they're hunting him down in a Siberian forest bunker without much bloodshed.
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Oct 11, 2023 07:44
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Russians attacked Adviika in Dontesk with 2 brigades. Heavy fighting reported.
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Oct 11, 2023 08:04
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There are videos being posted yesterday of what look like some of the biggest assaults from the Russians since last winter, not sure if they are from Adviika or not. It would make sense, considering letting Ukraine threaten/take Donetsk city would be a major set back and it does seem that area still has some room for manoeuvrability. In regards to the war in Israel/Gaza effecting Ukrainian munitions supply, I doubt it unless the conflict spreads to neighboring countries. Israel produces their own shells, and I am sure they have enough for every home/building in Gaza.
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Oct 11, 2023 08:32
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poor waif posted:Are they likely to need that much artillery? Israel has complete air supremacy, and the entire Gaza Strip is quite small. They're unlikely to end up in protracted artillery duels and trench warfare, and all of Hamas has fewer fighters than Russia lost in Bakhmut alone. In light of this, I wouldn't be surprised if turns out to be just an opportunistic performance to get approval of Ukrainian aid through faster.
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Oct 11, 2023 09:06
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Israel can also bomb Gaza from air with impunity so they aren't as dependent on artillery. There could be other effects, but it's more dependent on Israeli tactics and scale of operations. For example small quad copters could prove useful in urban fighting when you can send a spy drone to look for ambushes. This could affect availability of quad copters and components.
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Oct 11, 2023 09:10
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Some more Ukraine-adjacent news: Germany agreed to occupy Lithuania In short: Germany uses volunteers to create a completely new brigade of troops, which will then be stationed in Lithuania permanently. (This is why it's volunteers: The soldiers will move with their kids and partners.) Lithuania and Germany are currently busy planning, but a small force of Bundeswehr-soldiers will arrive before the year is over, and more and more will move in over the next years as Lithuania finishes more and more of the necessary infrastructure. In 2025 the new brigade will be officially founded, and in 2028 all 4000 German soldiers and their families will be in place.
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Oct 11, 2023 13:36
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"Germany agreed to occupy Lithuania " Is quite a way of phrasing that. Good news to have more tripwires in the Baltics though all the same.
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Oct 11, 2023 13:39
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Headline from 1941 or 2023
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Oct 11, 2023 15:48
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Blut posted:"Germany agreed to occupy Lithuania " It sure is. In before Putin starts saying Russia agreed to occupy Ukraine.
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Oct 11, 2023 15:48
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Antigravitas posted:
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Oct 11, 2023 16:56
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Norwegian defense academic on the cable situation: https://twitter.com/InaHPKvam/status/1712107592120467940 quote:A couple objections to this article’s commentary. While considerable uncertainty still reigns, neither trawlers nor dragging anchors as claimed here are of course capable of inflicting damage to the degree hitherto reported on the Balticonnector pipeline.
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Oct 11, 2023 17:31
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Double post for unrelated news: https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1712172138533441912?t=MN_WeJ8A9BwNRLqfYDucvQ&s=19
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Oct 11, 2023 19:28
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Moon Slayer posted:Double post for unrelated news: I do realize that I should've expected nothing else with a) Zelensky being of Jewish origin himself b) USA being Ukraine's main ally, but every time Zelensky speaks about Israel/Palestine it loving hurts my soul.
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Oct 11, 2023 19:42
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Szarrukin posted:I do realize that I should've expected nothing else with a) Zelensky being of Jewish origin himself b) USA being Ukraine's main ally, but every time Zelensky speaks about Israel/Palestine it loving hurts my soul. What you do to help keep your country alive for one more day, not enamoured myself but he has a job to do.
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Oct 11, 2023 19:47
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Szarrukin posted:I do realize that I should've expected nothing else with a) Zelensky being of Jewish origin himself b) USA being Ukraine's main ally, but every time Zelensky speaks about Israel/Palestine it loving hurts my soul. Ukraine recognises the state of Palestine and even voted for resolution 2334 in 2016 drawing parallels between West Bank settlements and occupation of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions. Palestine also voiced support for Ukraine's territorial integrity since 2014. Ukraine could have easily sat this one out with a boilerplate 'war is bad' statement.
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Oct 11, 2023 19:54
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OSINT twitter somehow is even more turbofucked than usual due to I/P, has anyone seen anything concrete on whats happening in Avdiivka?
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Oct 11, 2023 19:58
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fatherboxx posted:OSINT twitter somehow is even more turbofucked than usual due to I/P, has anyone seen anything concrete on whats happening in Avdiivka? I saw mention of two Russian brigades attacking there, but I haven't dug into anything yet.
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Oct 11, 2023 20:03
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Paladinus posted:Ukraine recognises the state of Palestine and even voted for resolution 2334 in 2016 drawing parallels between West Bank settlements and occupation of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions. Palestine also voiced support for Ukraine's territorial integrity since 2014. Ukraine could have easily sat this one out with a boilerplate 'war is bad' statement. GOP is turning against Ukraine at a pretty steady rate, and unconditional support for Israel is a core GOP platform. It sucks, but I can understand him not wanting to give the MAGA crowd something to use as weapon against Ukraine aid.
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Oct 11, 2023 20:05
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fatherboxx posted:OSINT twitter somehow is even more turbofucked than usual due to I/P, has anyone seen anything concrete on whats happening in Avdiivka? https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1712163233094652284 https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711863369404150024 Sounds like a significant attempt was stopped with modest gains.
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Oct 11, 2023 20:08
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fatherboxx posted:OSINT twitter somehow is even more turbofucked than usual due to I/P, has anyone seen anything concrete on whats happening in Avdiivka?
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Oct 11, 2023 20:08
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:Isn't Avdiivka one of the most heavily fortified places on the Ukrainian line since like 2015? Didn't Russia's winter offensives smash itself against it with even less result than anywhere else? I've definitely seen reports of a large Russian attack there, but it seems like a weird place to attack. But maybe this time will definitely be different in Gerasimov's head. It's pretty remarkable that they're choosing to attack here given the pressure in the south. I assume this is more about distracting Ukraine than gaining ground. Doesn't sound like it'll be very effective if it has been stopped by the existing defences.
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Oct 11, 2023 20:11
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Blut posted:"Germany agreed to occupy Lithuania " Strong quote:"Occupation?" vibes. I do like the extra tripwire, and it's good to see a NATO partner taking such a major pro-security step.
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Oct 11, 2023 20:31
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Chalks posted:It's pretty remarkable that they're choosing to attack here given the pressure in the south. I assume this is more about distracting Ukraine than gaining ground. Doesn't sound like it'll be very effective if it has been stopped by the existing defences. Yeah, they've attacked here in the past when pressed elsewhere. I think the idea is that Bakhmut became a big political deal, Avdiika could threaten Bakhmut, and therefore Ukraine "would have to" pull reserves from their offensive elsewhere to defend it. I don't think it worked last time either, but as mentioned already, "surely this time will be different".
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Oct 11, 2023 20:54
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Part of the issue is that a sound military strategy for Russia may be to dig in and hold, that's not their political goal. They officially annexed a lot of territory that they don't control and they need to take it: hence, wasteful offensives against Ukrainian hardpoints.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:43
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Morrow posted:Part of the issue is that a sound military strategy for Russia may be to dig in and hold, that's not their political goal. They officially annexed a lot of territory that they don't control and they need to take it: hence, wasteful offensives against Ukrainian hardpoints. I'm not sure how official those annexations are.
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Oct 11, 2023 22:52
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:I'm not sure how official those annexations are. They're official. All of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are de jure part of Russia. According to Russia anyway.
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Oct 11, 2023 23:17
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:Isn't Avdiivka one of the most heavily fortified places on the Ukrainian line since like 2015? Didn't Russia's winter offensives smash itself against it with even less result than anywhere else? I've definitely seen reports of a large Russian attack there, but it seems like a weird place to attack. But maybe this time will definitely be different in Gerasimov's head. The attacks during the winter of this year seized about the same amount of territory as what the AFU managed to take on the Robotyne salient this summer. Their attacks gained ground on the surrounding villages north and south of Avdiivka in places like Optyne, Vodiane, Vesele, and Krasnohorivka. By around early May when offensive operations stopped (probably in anticipation of the AFU summer campaign), what was a right angle on the front line centered on Aviivka has turned into a salient. RuAF operations these past few days are aimed towards the village of Berdychi in an effort to further isolate Avdiivka and force the AFU to abandon their positions in the town in a manner similar to how they pushed the AFU out of Bakhmut - flank the areas north and south of the built-up zones and put pressure on supply routes into the city. Rybar is talking about a "cauldron" battle but the pace suggests that this is hyperbolic. They do claim that RuAF forces have managed to reach the outskirts of Berdychi but that is not sustained by pro-AFU sources so that is up in the air. It isn't all that wierd a place to attack, it seems to be more of a continuation of a plan 6 months ago that got interrupted as they prepared to meet the AFU summer offensive. Akratic Method posted:Yeah, they've attacked here in the past when pressed elsewhere. I think the idea is that Bakhmut became a big political deal, Avdiika could threaten Bakhmut, and therefore Ukraine "would have to" pull reserves from their offensive elsewhere to defend it. Avdiivka is too far away to really affect Bakhmut. Given that ground taken on both sides is measured in meters on a daily basis, each pocket is really fighting on its own terms. Trying to force a transfer of forces may be a possibility but the Bakhmut sector has gone quiet for sometime now. Like in other places, the RuAF has stabilized the situation after the loss of Klischivka and Andriivka.
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Oct 12, 2023 00:10
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Apparently Putin spoke in support of Palestine today/yesterday? I really don't know anything about Russian ties with israel, but I thought they were fairly tight, hence Israel's reluctance to do any armed deals with Ukraine?
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Oct 12, 2023 01:18
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Nitrox posted:Apparently Putin spoke in support of Palestine today/yesterday? I really don't know anything about Russian ties with israel, but I thought they were fairly tight, hence Israel's reluctance to do any armed deals with Ukraine? edit - Found it https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-10-11-23/h_4950c460aa0642ca8484bbd190db1f89 quote:Hamas official in Lebanon claims militant group prepared for attack for 2 years Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 01:24 on Oct 12, 2023 |
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Oct 12, 2023 01:21
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Nitrox posted:Apparently Putin spoke in support of Palestine today/yesterday? I really don't know anything about Russian ties with israel, but I thought they were fairly tight, hence Israel's reluctance to do any armed deals with Ukraine? He simply reiterated Russia's adherence to Security Council's decisions, i.e. the creation of an independent Palestinian state. He also called for both sides to 'fight man on man and leave women and children out of it' as well as to minimise civilian casualties when retaliating, which rings absolutely hollow after the recent Russia's attack on the funeral reception in Hroza. He also ties it all to failures of US diplomacy, of course, and that's really the main point he was trying to make. There are no promises from Russia to provide any assistance to Palestine. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/11/10/2023/65269c5b9a79474d611e582c
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Oct 12, 2023 01:34
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1712147257338867867 Definitely not running low on IFVs! (Note this is actually ~20 miles away from Avdiivka, although probably in coordination with the attack there).
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Oct 12, 2023 02:11
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Improvising armored personel carriers is something I do in tabletop role-playing games. As a joke. Didn’t know my barbarian dude was a global military power, I guess.
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Oct 12, 2023 02:47
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The footage coming out of Avdiivka is mind boggling. Russia has (had?) significantly more reserves than the optimists, like myself, had thought. It will take a few days to get a clearer picture of how much land they were able to take but they have thrown away so many men and materiel.
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Oct 12, 2023 03:16
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Xiahou Dun posted:Improvising armored personel carriers is something I do in tabletop role-playing games. Now I wonder exactly what kind of barbarian-themed TTRPG allows improvised armored personnel carriers. Conan / Lost Worlds x/over?
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Oct 12, 2023 04:11
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