crepeface posted:

dk2m posted:

right now, the world bank, with the US bring its biggest contributor, is quite literally keeping the lights on for their civil society by paying for pensions and even teacher’s salaries.

they recently said they need to start exploring restructuring their debt of 20billion usd. that’s concerning because even though much of their interest on debt payments have been deferred until 2027, bondholders might start taking their money out of the country, or cashing in, which would severely depress their currency - this is known as capital flight and crashes foreign economies because they lose USD reserves, which they have to somehow keep get other ways or else their currency drops.

they could also risk high inflation if they have to start dumping their currency in markets to convert it to USD to pay back the debts, or more likely, take on the bill for civil society again. a bunch of angry teachers that haven’t been paid isn’t great for morale, so ukraine probably will be forced to make really tough choices due to the massive amount of loans they have taken on.

Zelensky knows this, and not being the top priority for American lawmakers will have huge domino effects for his country

Nix Panicus posted:

Can one of you WW2 knowers give me the breakdown on why the Soviet's paused outside of Warsaw during the Warsaw Uprising?

quote:

Q Thanks. Just to follow up on Brian’s question. I know the contours of a congressional package is still taking shape. But can you provide us anything on a timeline or give us a sense of how quickly the U.S. will exhaust what it can provide to Israel before congressional action is needed?

MR. KIRBY: We have existing authorities and appropriations to support Israel in the near term. And I got asked last time, you know, what is “near term,” or what’s “a bit” mean? I — I can’t give you a date certain on the calendar, because a lot of it’s going to depend on their expenditure rate and what the replenishment ability is — or what the need is and what our ability to do it is.

But in the near term, we’ve — we’ve got appropriations and authorities for both Ukraine and for Israel. But you don’t want to be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope.

And in Ukraine — on the Ukraine funding, we’re — we’re coming near to the end of the rope. I mean, today we announced $200 million, and we’ll keep that aid going as long as we can, but it’s — it’s not going to be indefinite.

So, are we moving with a sense of alacrity? Absolutely. I couldn’t give you a date certain on the calendar.

PawParole posted:

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1712427844779778483

Stop being broke.

Get your money up!

PawParole posted:

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1712427844779778483

Stop being broke.

Get your money up!

Ardennes posted:

It was a combination of both the Soviet army was at the end of its push after Bagration and also...the Polish Home Army was explicitly anti-Soviet.

Nix Panicus posted:

Can one of you WW2 knowers give me the breakdown on why the Soviet's paused outside of Warsaw during the Warsaw Uprising?

quote:

By 28 July [1944], [Major General A. I.] Radzievsky's [2d Tank] army, with three corps abreast, engaged German 73d Infantry Division and the Hermann Goering Panzer Division 40 kilometers southeast of Warsaw. A race ensued between Radzievsky, who was seeking to seize the routes in Warsaw from the east, and the Germans, who were attempting to keep those routes open and maintain possession of Warsaw. The nearest Soviet forces within supporting range of Radzievsky were 47th Army and 11th Tank and 2d Guards Cavalry Corps, then fighting for possession of Siedlce, 50 kilometers to the east. On 29 July, Radzievsky dispatched his 8th Guards and 3d Tank Corps northward in an attempt to swing northeast of Warsaw and turn the German defenders' left flank, while his 16th Tank Corps continued to fight on the southeastern approaches to the city's suburbs.

Although Lieutenant General A. F. Popov's 8th Guards Tank Corps successfully fought to within 20 kilometers east of the city, Major General N. D. Vedeneev's 3d Tank Corps ran into a series of successive panzer counterattacks orchestrated by [Field Marshal Walther] Model. Beginning on 30 July, the Hermann Goering and 19th Panzer Divisions struck the overextended and weakened tank corps north of Wolomin, 15 kilometers northeast of Warsaw. Although the corps withstood three days of counterattacks, on 2 and 3 August, 4th Panzer Division and SS Panzer Division Wiking joined the fight. In three days of intense fighting, 3d Tank Corps was severely mauled, and the 8th Guards Tank Corps was also sorely pressed. By 5 August 47th Army's forces had arrived in the area, and 2d Tank Army was withdrawn for rest and refitting. The three rifle corps of 47th Army were stretched out on a front of over 80 kilometers, from south of Warsaw to Siedlce, and were unable to renew the drive on Warsaw or to the Narew River. German communications lines eastward to Army Group Center had been damaged but not cut.

On 1 August, the Polish Home Army of General Tadeusz Bor-Komorowski had launched an insurrection in Warsaw. Although the insurgents seized large areas in downtown Warsaw, they failed to secure the four bridges over the Vistula, and where unable to hold the eastern suburbs of the city. For two months, the Polish Home Army struggled and ultimately perished in Warsaw but received little material help from the Soviets. Instead, 1st Belorussian Front focused on defending the Manguszew bridgehead against heavy counterattacks in mid-August, and on driving forward across the Bug River to seize crossings over the Narew River. In each the intent was to gain starting points to facilitate future operations rather than to help the Polish insurgents in the short run.

Soviet 47th Army remained the only major force opposite Warsaw until 20 August, when it was joined by Lieutenant General Z. M. Berling's 1st Polish Army. Soviet forces finally forced the Bug river on 3 September, closed up to the Narew River the following day, and fought their way into a bridgehead across the Narew on 6 September. On 13 September, lead elements of 47th Army entered Praga in Warsaw's eastern suburbs. Three days later, elements of two Polish divisions launched an assault across the river but made little progress and were evacuated across the Vistula on 23 September.

The Soviets have long maintained their sincerity in attempting to assist the Polish uprising. Indeed, German resistance in the region was probably sufficient to halt any Soviet attack, at least until mid-September. Thereafter, a Soviet advance on Warsaw would have involved a major reorientation of military efforts from Magnuszew in the south - or, more realistically, from the Bug and Narew Rivers axis in the north - in order to muster sufficient force to break into Warsaw. Even if they had reached Warsaw, the city would have been a costly place to clear of Germans and an unsuitable location from which to launch a new offensive.

speng31b posted:

Stolen post from IP thread

Check out this statement by the White House yesterday

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...-john-kirby-20/

PawParole posted:

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1712427844779778483

Stop being broke.

Get your money up!

Puppy Burner posted:

https://twitter.com/TheOverwolf/status/1711680441055330569?t=a4-dvKIc0tKGMZRMdEH27A&s=19

gradenko_2000 posted:

you have no idea how happy this question made me as I ran over to my bookshelf to pull out my copy of When Titans Clashed

for additional context, let's look at a map:



Warsaw is on the western side of the Vistula River, and the Bug and Narew rivers frame its northern approaches. There's no way to get into the city without crossing at least one of these rivers, and approaching from the north is going to take two or all three.

so Glantz's account places 2d Guards Cavalry Corps in Siedlce on 28 July, one month and one week into the Bagration campaign, and then they get slammed by four Panzer divisions.

so it's combination of the Soviets having driven to the end of their logistical tail, combined with a determined German defence, followed by terrain considerations that make breaking into a Warsaw require just about an entirely separate operation.

Nix Panicus posted:

How much truth is there to the accusations that the Soviets deliberately dragged their feet on ideological grounds?

quote:

Ukrainian troops typically fire between 2,000 and 3,000 artillery shells per day at Russian forces, a US defense official told CNN in July.

Ardennes posted:

Uh...did they just sort of announce Ukraine lost as an aside in a press conference?

OhFunny posted:

Western ammo stocks at ‘bottom of the barrel’ as Ukraine war drags on, NATO official warns

A sentence from this article stood out to me.

I recall the Ukrainian rate of fire per day earlier in the year was said to be 6,000.

This means Ukraine's artillery fire per day has fallen by half or two-thirds.

genericnick posted:

Wasn't the 6k figure something like an upper bound?

speng31b posted:

Stolen post from IP thread

Check out this statement by the White House yesterday

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...-john-kirby-20/

mila kunis posted:

(or even, going back to 2014, not instigating a coup in the first place).

mila kunis posted:

This conflict could've been entirely avoided if Ukraine's western allies had pressured them into actually abiding by the Minsk deal (or even, going back to 2014, not instigating a coup in the first place). They led the Ukrainians into war, destruction and depopulation and are now dropping them like a hot potato.

mila kunis posted:

This conflict could've been entirely avoided if Ukraine's western allies had pressured them into actually abiding by the Minsk deal (or even, going back to 2014, not instigating a coup in the first place). They led the Ukrainians into war, destruction and depopulation and are now dropping them like a hot potato.

euphronius posted:

they just had to acknowledge that Ukraine was in Russias SOI, or at least acknowledge ukriane was not in Americas SOI and that diplomacy had to be used. oh well

mila kunis posted:

This conflict could've been entirely avoided if Ukraine's western allies had pressured them into actually abiding by the Minsk deal (or even, going back to 2014, not instigating a coup in the first place). They led the Ukrainians into war, destruction and depopulation and are now dropping them like a hot potato.

speng31b posted:

they got what they wanted out of it

quote:

The Targeted Investment Program for 2024–2026 was approved

The priority is transport infrastructure and social facilities. In the next three years, we plan to build and put into operation about 760 different city facilities, including metro lines and stations, schools and kindergartens, clinics and hospitals, health centers, etc.

About the main thing we plan to do.

▫️We will introduce 35 km of lines, 17 stations and 1 electric depot of the Moscow metro. The first sections of the Troitskaya and Rublevo-Arkhangelskaya lines will appear. We will expand the construction of the Biryulyovskaya line.

▫️We will pave and build 265.5 km of roads, 71 artificial structures and 60 pedestrian crossings.
We will complete the formation of the Moscow High-Speed ​​Diameter. Among the iconic objects: pedestrian bridges across the Nagatinsky backwater and in the City area, a bicycle and pedestrian bridge across the Yauza, a section of the Moskva River embankment in the Nagatinskaya floodplain, Karamyshevskaya embankment.

▫️We will build 6.5 million square meters. m of housing, including under the Renovation Program. Together with residential buildings, we will build nearby all the social infrastructure necessary for life, improve courtyards, parks and recreation areas.

▫️Together with investors we will complete the construction of 307 social facilities. Among them: a multidisciplinary medical complex of the Children's City Clinical Hospital of St. Vladimir, sports complex on Moskvorechye street, buildings of the new campus of Moscow State Technical University named after. Bauman.
We will reconstruct the Luzhniki Sports Palace and the Polyarny Cinema; restoration of several historical pavilions at VDNKh. We will complete the construction of the National Space Center.

▫️We will continue the construction of facilities of the Rudnevo industrial park and other sites of the Technopolis Moscow SEZ, the development of the South Port territory and will actively implement projects for the integrated development of non-residential development areas.

gradenko_2000 posted:

there's at least some truth to it insofar as Stalin refused to allow the Anglo-Americans to use Soviet bases as origin points for paradropping supplies* onto the Polish Home Army, though the ground effort seems to be pretty well-grounded as being a largely military problem.

* that said, it wasn't very long before the insurgents controlled such a small parcel of land that it couldn't feasibly be targeted by paradrops, so the window of usefulness of this was quite short, even if it was allowed.

speng31b posted:

Stolen post from IP thread

Check out this statement by the White House yesterday

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...-john-kirby-20/

mila kunis posted:

This conflict could've been entirely avoided if Ukraine's western allies had pressured them into actually abiding by the Minsk deal (or even, going back to 2014, not instigating a coup in the first place). They led the Ukrainians into war, destruction and depopulation and are now dropping them like a hot potato.

mila kunis posted:

This conflict could've been entirely avoided if Ukraine's western allies had pressured them into actually abiding by the Minsk deal (or even, going back to 2014, not instigating a coup in the first place). They led the Ukrainians into war, destruction and depopulation and are now dropping them like a hot potato.

euphronius posted:

nato couldn’t dislodge Russia if it wanted to other than like nuking the world

supersnowman posted:

They tried diplomacy. The problem is for decades, diplomacy in the US meant "getting whatever the gently caress I want" so it becomes a train wreck as soon as someone stand its ground.