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OctaMurk posted:wonder how the water will actually get to anybody anyways. the water infrastructure wouldnt be doing so well after this much bombardment, and anyways water pumps run on electricity Water supply is usually gravity-based during actual delivery, so it just needs to be pumped up *somewhere* once, which could be in Israel, depending on how water supply to Khan Younis is set up. Probably there is at least some of the pumping infrastructure based physically in Israel. Enough for 2 million people? Probably not. Even if it is, people will probably have to go to water stations although possibly some home taps will work. BBC reporter living in Gaza wrote about it today: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67116403 Pretty catastrophic even if water is turned on in a limited fashion. Food will be a severe issue soon (previous reports were saying bakeries and such had generally a week or two of supplies on hand) so Israel and Egypt will have to let in the convoy soon or it will turn into something more horrific than it already is. Really can’t imagine why the gently caress anyone thinks medieval sieges against an overwhelmingly civilian population is okay. E: I don’t really see what they could be planning, maybe something along the line of what Egypt did in the 2010s where it completely destroyed the Egyptian side of Rafah to a depth of 5 km (look @ google maps) to cut down on smuggling by vastly expanding the no-go zone. But in this case I doubt Israel will remove anything on the Israeli side, and pushing the Gaza border back by 2-3km would be… also catastrophic. Saladman fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Oct 15, 2023 |
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Oct 15, 2023 18:17
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Koos Group posted:The primary source the person was claiming was the health ministry, and it wasn't linked, while the person's credibility also was not established. This puts onus on others to verify the information and is thereby going against the thread's first guideline, which is that one should provide proof of their claims themselves rather than putting this burden on others. It would not have been difficult to wait a bit for confirmation, as there have been reports by NBC News and Time within a few hours of that tweet being posted (ex: https://time.com/6323482/israel-white-phosphorus-gaza-lebanon/ ). loving piece of poo poo genocide denier and enabler. Masks off for you and your ilk. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 15, 2023 19:06
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Willo567 posted:When Iran talks about getting involve, do they just mean opening up another front with Hezbollah in Lebanon? Also, for the mods, what counts as "Willoposting"? Willoposting refers to asking other posters to soothe unreasonable anxiety involving a war and, often, the likelihood it will escalate to a nuclear exchange.
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Oct 15, 2023 19:17
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Nolgthorn posted:Israel isn't committing a genocide of any kind. If they wanted to they could have done so at any time a long time ago, and probably saved themselves a lot of problems in having done it. Instead they spend extraordinary amounts of money trying to minimise casualties. Interesting how the popular opinion in this thread has changed since 2015. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 15, 2023 19:31
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celewign posted:Interesting how the popular opinion in this thread has changed since 2015. interesting post! what do the next posts after that say?
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Oct 15, 2023 19:36
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celewign posted:Interesting how the popular opinion in this thread has changed since 2015. After a casual glance this seem like bullshit and in any case why do you think it is a good idea to discuss now what people was posting and what opinions they had on this forum eight years ago? I don't see the point.
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Oct 15, 2023 19:45
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Main Paineframe posted:It's a growing problem, but I don't really think it would have contributed too much to the security failures. The ultra-Orthodox parties don't really have an opinion on the military aside from "we want to be exempt from conscription". As long as they get that exemption, they don't really meddle with military policy, and they don't make up enough of the population for the IDF to be running low on manpower just yet. So I understood Zeihan's point to be different. I didn't think he was saying anything about IDF being low on manpower because these groups are exempt. I took his point to be that because of proportional representation that these groups get people in the government despite only having 10% of the vote or whatever but with their being multiple groups it adds up and that since Bibi allied with them to form the current government a lot of very incompetent inexperienced people got put in positions of power that normally wouldn't be anywhere near them and that is a big contributor to security failures. I'm not well versed on Israeli politics so I dunno if he is right but it sounds possible. He likened it to Matt Gaetz basically stopping Congress in it's tracks by saying imagine a whole bunch of Matt Gaetzs getting appointed to the cabinet etc.
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Oct 15, 2023 21:08
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I don't think it's a major thing, but while the ultra orthodox parties aren't involved with politics, the "regular" orthodox ultra-right-wing party is. They also push the settlements in the West Bank hard. They were the ones that caused a lot of things that made the situation in the West Bank to flare up (which they wanted, so they could crack down on Palestinians there harder in favour of the settlers). They are also led by two people who have zero military experience, one of which is a nazi psychopath who was rejected from the IDF because he was a member of a terrorist organisation. Personally, I think you can say it was a factor but I'm not really sure how major it was. Time will tell.
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Oct 15, 2023 21:44
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celewign posted:Interesting how the popular opinion in this thread has changed since 2015. Huge polarization on both ends of the spectrum in US and world politics since 2015.
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Oct 15, 2023 21:59
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Thread opinion hasn't changed meaningfully. As isso implied, Nolgthorn got bodied for the idiotic post immediately.
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Oct 15, 2023 22:02
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celewign posted:Interesting how the popular opinion in this thread has changed since 2015. Why did you feel the need to quote a post from a guy who made like five posts, that all got immediately shot down by the thread, and eventually probed for bad faith posting, and never came back, and present it as "popular opinion?"
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Oct 15, 2023 22:03
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No more posting about the forums, please.
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Oct 15, 2023 23:08
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'Israel resumed on Sunday the water supply to the southern Gaza Strip after strong pressure from the Biden administration, two Israeli officials told Axios.' https://www.axios.com/2023/10/15/israel-resumes-water-supply-to-southern-gaza-after-us-pressure
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Oct 15, 2023 23:12
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There are intense airstrikes happening right now (1:20 am local time) in Gaza. It's hard to tell if they're actually more intense than others recently, or if people are just watching a livestream with a camera particularly close to the strikes.
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Oct 15, 2023 23:23
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Paladinus posted:Some moderately good news. Israel promises to renew water supply to parts of southern Gaza. OctaMurk posted:wonder how the water will actually get to anybody anyways. the water infrastructure wouldnt be doing so well after this much bombardment, and anyways water pumps run on electricity Yep. Israel has bombed the hell out of pipes (while suggesting that Palestinian groups dismantled usable water pipes when taking pipes from abandoned settlements) among other infrastructure. Even with the pipes intact, there's no electricity as you say and pumps are absolutely a problem. It's nothing more than a fig leaf. They turned the water off and then they destroyed the distribution. Turning it back on does nothing. People are going to die of thirst in Gaza in the next day or two if they aren't already. Temperature in Gaza is averaging 27 - 30 degrees (C) this week and a bunch of people will have been doing a load of walking.
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Oct 15, 2023 23:42
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https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1713629825242403161Reuters posted:“Iran’s armed forces will not engage, provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals. The resistance front can defend itself" Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters Is it just me or does this feel like a step backwards from their earlier threats to get involved? Granted I could still see Hezbollah become active
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Oct 16, 2023 00:29
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 16, 2023 00:34
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Willo567 posted:Is it just me or does this feel like a step backwards from their earlier threats to get involved? Granted I could still see Hezbollah become active I'm not sure what your Iran obsession is about, but just know that they're not entering the war in anyway, no one is. No one in the region is stable enough domestically or interested in the immense pushback that would ensue. You can stop thinking about it so much.
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Oct 16, 2023 00:46
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 16, 2023 00:51
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mannerup posted:Willoposting aside, I think there is a legitimate worry that if Israel continues to escalate unabated while the United States refuses to push them towards deescalation, it could cause this to become a regional war. Nobody in the region wants this to happen, but the current dynamic is untenable to regional stability. Iran's threats hold as much water as Putin's redlines.
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Oct 16, 2023 00:56
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 16, 2023 01:03
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Iran says stuff all day, it’s just show. They have enough problems to start something
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Oct 16, 2023 01:05
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mannerup posted:Transcript for Biden's interview on 60 Minutes tonight has been released, key parts of it: It would be nice if Biden had a stronger voice on this, but he seems to be saying SOME of the right things here: 1. Not stepping in a Bush-style "axis of evil" trap, he's being more specific than he needs to be to exonerate Iran here - that's important, and between that and the back-down from Iran I imagine that means there were some back channel sorts of things going on 2. Re-emphasizing the necessity of a Palestinian government - maybe Gaza can have an actual loving election soon so Hamas can't continue being the de jure government of Gaza. 3. Rejected occupation of Gaza as a strategy. It's a really weak red line to draw, but better that than a statement of "unconditional support". Would be nice if he took a bit more of a lead here and said "indiscriminate air strikes are bad and we don't like them", but making a statement about food and water to Gaza seems to me like he probably has people working on getting the sort of humanitarian aid deal Egypt was asking for going. On some level I guess I wouldn't expect the US to make any better statements, since admitting that Israel has been committing genocide this whole time makes the US complicit for providing military aid for basically forever. Hopefully the various US/EU countries are invested enough in at least *looking* moral that they will try to rein the bombing in privately even when they say this kind of poo poo, because I don't really see any chance of Israel being MADE to stop by force.
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Oct 16, 2023 05:30
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mannerup posted:Transcript for Biden's interview on 60 Minutes tonight has been released, key parts of it: Notice the weaselly, subjective language being used here. He's "confident" about these things, meaning he doesn't know for certain or he hasn't been assured by Israel. But hey it's no big deal if he's wrong, everyone makes mistakes Jack! And Israel will "do everything in their power to avoid killing civilians", a completely unfalsifiable claim. Even if Israel kills hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, they can just claim they were doing everything in their power not to, but gosh darnit, they just had to bomb all those hospitals and apartment blocks that definitely had Hamas in them. There's nothing of substance here. No indication of whether a line will be drawn for how far Israel can go, no indication that there will be any consequences if they cross it. The harshest language he uses is that it would be a "mistake". Just vague allusions to his "confidence" that Israel won't commit a genocide, even as we watch it unfolding. He's paying the weakest of lip service to humanitarian concerns while basically giving Israel free reign. Fister Roboto fucked around with this message at 06:29 on Oct 16, 2023 |
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Oct 16, 2023 06:27
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Important to note that it would not exactly be the first war in history to escalate despite everyone involved intending otherwise, sometimes people miscalculate or simply gently caress up.
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Oct 16, 2023 08:52
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Yeah. It also seems like troops on either side of the northern border are very much in a "shoot anything that moves" state which is a great recipe for escalation unless cool heads are abound.
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Oct 16, 2023 08:54
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I should also say, people tend to view every actor as perfectly rational and every individual as perfectly following orders... there are some people, whether in the IDF, Hezbullah or others who are really angry about things and just itching at triggers. It won't take much for control to break down in circumstances (ie not just carried away by one's own strategic posturing but carried away bottom-up by soldiers unwilling to see x situation continue).
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Oct 16, 2023 09:15
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https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/status/1713818905959977092 loving assholes. Biden isn't going to do poo poo to force them to cooperate
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Oct 16, 2023 14:06
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Ms Adequate posted:Important to note that it would not exactly be the first war in history to escalate despite everyone involved intending otherwise, sometimes people miscalculate or simply gently caress up. Yes, but the regional actors don't actually have much on the line here. The Arab nations (aside from Syria) no longer see Israel as a threat, hence the Abraham Accords. To them a much bigger threat is internal dissent from islamist groups just like Hamas. The Arab street strongly supports the Palestinian cause but Arab leaders will only pay lip service in order to avoid internal problems. Hezbollah might get involved. But if this was really a vast plot by Iran to go after Israel then Hezbollah probably would have made its move already, before Israel has a chance to prepare. Iran isn't attacking Israel, this is just fantasy. Iran barely has the ability to hit Israel at all. I think the real threat of escalation comes from the West Bank. Abbas has been avoiding his own country, I bet because he fears a coup. Even without help from above there may just be a general uprising. It's hard to see how this becomes a general war.
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Oct 16, 2023 14:11
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Authentically bizarre poo poo from the official voice of a nation: https://x.com/samah_fadil/status/1713890936688615920?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q
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Oct 16, 2023 14:19
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You can see why famous people are reluctant to support Palestine. Israeli government trying organize pile-ons against anyone who isn't 100% pro Israel even when they are carrying out a genocide.
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Oct 16, 2023 14:25
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It honestly makes me sick to my drat stomach how the U.S. doesn't want to do anything to deescalate the situation
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Oct 16, 2023 14:38
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Got to say I was very weirded out to have adverts hit me on YouTube from the Israeli Foreign Ministry telling me how many people had been killed by Hamas and that I needed to #standwithisrael. Happened a few times this week and according to the targeting info it was aimed at me solely because of my age and location (UK).
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Oct 16, 2023 14:44
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Willo567 posted:It honestly makes me sick to my drat stomach how the U.S. doesn't want to do anything to deescalate the situation More or less what I put into my letters to my reps. The US is the only nation on this planet that has the ability to deescalate the situation and by all measure the US government has absolutely no interest in doing anything but making Israel more bold. They don't even need to do anything other than signal that they won't block UN action, for God's sake.
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Oct 16, 2023 14:47
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Willo567 posted:It honestly makes me sick to my drat stomach how the U.S. doesn't want to do anything to deescalate the situation They don't even have the balls to lean on Israel to let foreign nationals stuck at the Rafah crossing through, they're not going to care as Israel kills all of Gaza it seems.
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Oct 16, 2023 14:49
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team overhead smash posted:Got to say I was very weirded out to have adverts hit me on YouTube from the Israeli Foreign Ministry telling me how many people had been killed by Hamas and that I needed to #standwithisrael. Happened a few times this week and according to the targeting info it was aimed at me solely because of my age and location (UK). I saw the same on TwitterX with it looking like a reply on a discussion thread about the war. Lots of pictures of the atrocities Hama's has done on the advert.
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Oct 16, 2023 14:54
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CuddleCryptid posted:More or less what I put into my letters to my reps. The US is the only nation on this planet that has the ability to deescalate the situation and by all measure the US government has absolutely no interest in doing anything but making Israel more bold.
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Oct 16, 2023 15:12
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Nail Rat posted:They don't even have the balls to lean on Israel to let foreign nationals stuck at the Rafah crossing through, they're not going to care as Israel kills all of Gaza it seems. https://x.com/glcarlstrom/status/1713857988144910586?s=46 Sounds like the multipolar world people wished for.  FlamingLiberal posted:The ‘bright’ side of the House being dysfunctional is that they aren’t passing bills to give Israel additional military aid right now As is Ukraine military aid.
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Oct 16, 2023 15:37
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Gigi Hadid's instagram message seemed pretty bland and corporately even handed and fair, given her Palestinian family links. Like it rejected any violence against Jewish people, and terrorism is wrong and counterproductive. And yet it generates a batshit insane foaming at the mouth response like that. Its extraordinary that Hamas' attack is barely a week old and Israel is already pissing away the sympathy it created - even in the West - because they can't help themselves in their lust for vengeance and Palestinian blood. "If you aren't with us, you're against us" is a lot more effective when you're a global hegemon at the height of your power with massive international sympathy.They don't seem to realise they aren't the US in the early 2000s - Hamas' attack did shock people internationally, but much less so than 9/11 did and that shock is fading in light of the poo poo they're doing in Gaza. And they aren't as powerful or dominant as the US was in the early 2000s, so can't just ignore regional and global opinion indefinitely. Tigey fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Oct 16, 2023 |
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Oct 16, 2023 15:46
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FlamingLiberal posted:The ‘bright’ side of the House being dysfunctional is that they aren’t passing bills to give Israel additional military aid right now I doubt Israel needs any additional US military aid to wipe Gaza off the map, even if Hezbollah gets fully involved
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Oct 16, 2023 15:50
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