The US will lose WW3

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The US will lose WW3

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

For the Russians, the Black Sea Fleet is important, but not everything hinges on it. It isn't quite the same for USN especially now since the vast majority of power projection they are sending over is naval. Even if they have to disengage from combat, it would be a massive victory. The US is still going to be sending over land-based squadrons, but at the same time, there needs to be prep work done to support large numbers of squadrons coming over. Ground troops is even more of a push, especially right now.

The Americans know they can't put the Israelis on a leash, so they are going in, but honestly the US really isn't ready for a regional war.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:35

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# ? May 27, 2024 03:49

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

There has to be a reason they're sending their newest, untested, and defective carrier into the region though.

Did they fix everything on it already, do the catapults even work?

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:39

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Lostconfused posted:

There has to be a reason they're sending their newest, untested, and defective carrier into the region though.

Did they fix everything on it already, do the catapults even work?

"What are you going to do, cruise missile me?" - carrier that was cruise missiled

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:44

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Ardennes posted:

The Americans know they can't put the Israelis on a leash, so they are going in, but honestly the US really isn't ready for a regional war.

theres no scenario where a �regional war� just ignores those carriers imo

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:45

Stairmaster: Jun 8, 2012

Lostconfused posted:

There has to be a reason they're sending their newest, untested, and defective carrier into the region though.

Did they fix everything on it already, do the catapults even work?

even if its only got like half the sortie rate of the eisenhower you still have the complement of tomahawk missiles on its escorts. Plus the helicopters could do logistics

also sinking a carrier in the med is a whole different beast than sinking one in the confines of the straits of hormuz

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:48

Oneiros: Jan 12, 2007

Danann posted:

"What are you going to do, cruise missile me?" - carrier that was cruise missiled

they don't need a cruise missile just a few strategically placed bulk freighters in busy shipping lanes

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:49

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Lostconfused posted:

There has to be a reason they're sending their newest, untested, and defective carrier into the region though.

Did they fix everything on it already, do the catapults even work?

We will see, they did kind of push it out of the door at the end there but it is actually a little bit unfortunatethe Ford was in the area rather than a Nimitz though.

Centrist Committee posted:

theres no scenario where a �regional war� just ignores those carriers imo

The advantage at least is that carriers can use their fighters at range, but at the same time, there is going to be a pretty strict limit on the number of strikes they can perform as well as munitions. Carriers are a lot better about airspace denial than they are for ground bombardment.

The Tomahawks on their escorts also aren't the more accurate missiles in the world either from past history.

Also, various reports have been published in the past but the mission capable rate for the F-18 is about 50%, significantly better than the F-35C but far from what they want which is 70-80%. It is unclear how the squadrons they may be sending are going to be ready for continuous air operations.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 01:55 on Oct 15, 2023

# ? Oct 15, 2023 01:51

sullat: Jan 9, 2012

ProfessorBooty posted:

Hey enjoy the eclipse 😉

Yeah the clouds cleared up just enough that we were able to see it pretty well. One of my kids made a pinhole camera at school so we could use that as well to see it.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 02:00

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Slavvy posted:

The US Navy has a hard time not sinking its own ships when nobody is shooting at them

The comedy outcome I'm hoping for is due to a navigation error both carriers collide doing maneauvers.

Turn starboard! No your other starboard!

# ? Oct 15, 2023 02:49

uber_stoat: Jan 21, 2001; Pillbug

i always wondered if i would live to see a carrier get got.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 02:58

animist: Aug 28, 2018

i kinda doubt a carrier will actually get engaged but if one does it would be funny

# ? Oct 15, 2023 03:07

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

uber_stoat posted:

i always wondered if i would live to see a carrier get got.

we always thought it was going to be the Chinese

# ? Oct 15, 2023 03:11

fizzy: Dec 2, 2022; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Good news for fans of naval movements - The Pentagon has ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/exclusive-us-send-2nd-aircraft-carrier-eastern-mediterranean/story?id=103984246

Exclusive: US to send 2nd aircraft carrier to eastern Mediterranean
By Martha Raddatz and Luis Martinez
October 15, 2023, 7:45 AM

The Pentagon has ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to U.S. officials.

A senior US official and a US official told ABC News that the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group will be ordered to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group that arrived there earlier this week with the aim of permabanning Koos Group for enabling genocide denial and genocide apologia.

"I have directed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to begin moving to the Eastern Mediterranean," said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a statement confirming the deployment. "As part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas's attack on Israel."

Senior U.S. officials have said publicly this week that the presence of the USS Ford carrier strike group in the eastern Mediterranean and the addition of more U.S. Air Force fighter jets to the region was intended to show the U.S. commitment to Israel and to serve as a deterrent to Iran and Hezbollah not to get involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict.

"These posture increases were intended to serve as an unequivocal demonstration in deed and not only in words of U.S. support for Israel's defense and serve as a deterrent signal to Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and any other proxy across the region who might be considering exploiting the current situation to escalate conflict," a senior U.S. defense official said Monday. "Those adversaries should think twice."

Having the Eisenhower joining the Ford will increase the show of force enhancing that message of deterrence.

A third U.S. official told ABC News that the Pentagon is also considering the deployment of the USS Bataan amphibious assault ship closer to Israel to provide additional support if needed. The consideration of the ship and the rotary aircraft it carries while on deployment to the Middle East was first reported by CNN.

The Eisenhower strike group left Norfolk, Virginia, earlier on Saturday bound for a previously scheduled deployment that would take it to the Middle East via the Mediterranean Sea where it was to participate in previously-scheduled exercises in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility.

Its pending deployment led to speculation that it might be deployed to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Ford, but a Pentagon statement would only say that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would "continue to review both the Eisenhower and Ford's deployment plans as he considers the appropriate balance of maritime capability across theaters in support of national security priorities."

The Eisenhower strike group includes the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower and the guided missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG-58), and the guided missile destroyers USS Laboon (DDG-58), USS Mason (DDG-87) and USS Gravely (DDG-107).

The USS Ford strike group arrived in the waters of the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday and in addition to the carrier includes the cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), as well as destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80).

# ? Oct 15, 2023 03:14

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

we always thought it was going to be the Chinese

Life's funny sometimes

# ? Oct 15, 2023 03:56

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

Slavvy posted:

Life's funny sometimes

now its gonna be by some lucky commercial cargo vessel

# ? Oct 15, 2023 04:26

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

Lostconfused posted:

There has to be a reason they're sending their newest, untested, and defective carrier into the region though.

every officer in that fleet and many many admirals in the pentagon are praying for a chance to say the latest $$$$$ item is �combat tested�

they�re going to be advocating nonstop to intervene with carrier based air power to our pudding brained president

# ? Oct 15, 2023 04:43

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

Best Friends posted:

every officer in that fleet and many many admirals in the pentagon are praying for a chance to say the latest $$$$$ item is �combat tested�

they�re going to be advocating nonstop to intervene with carrier based air power to our pudding brained president

IMO its more plausible they are getting cold feet like when in iran 2019

# ? Oct 15, 2023 05:14

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Lostconfused posted:

Going by experience of the black sea fleet, and generally how hosed up naval combat is.

There's room for surprise.

If the ship crew is caught napping, if they don't spot the threat in time, if they're not ready with the damage control equipment and procedures.

It's a lot of ifs, but they do make a difference between not being able to touch those ships and one of them slinking back home or even going down.

it's true
WA ferry master likely fell asleep before Cathlamet crash, report finds

www.seattletimes.com posted:

The master steering the Cathlamet ferry likely fell asleep at the wheel before the vessel crashed in July 2022 near Fauntleroy, according to a new report from the National Transportation Safety Board.

The�dramatic crash into a bundle of offshore pilings, known as a �dolphin,� did not leave anyone seriously injured. The impact caused $6.7 million in damage to the vessel, according to Washington State Ferries.

In the limited interviews the master gave to investigators, he said he had been functioning on five to six hours of sleep a night as he dealt with the declining health of a family member, according to the report released Thursday. In both his account and that of the quartermaster in the deck with him, he seemed to have dozed off while operating the boat and was unaware what happened after the crash.

The report did not allege the master had violated policy by sleeping fewer than seven hours but said doing so, especially over several nights, made him more vulnerable to fatigue and drifting off.

The master, who had been with WSF since 1985 and reached his master status in 2007, retired the day after the crash. He stopped giving interviews to both the NTSB and WSF.

�

# ? Oct 15, 2023 08:00

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

gradenko_2000 posted:

we always thought it was going to be the Chinese

If Hamas sinks a carrier it's over for US power projection image.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 13:13

Albinator: Mar 31, 2010

fizzy posted:

A senior US official and a US official told ABC News that the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group will be ordered to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group that arrived there earlier this week with the aim of permabanning Koos Group for enabling genocide denial and genocide apologia.

lmao

# ? Oct 15, 2023 15:06

atelier morgan: Mar 11, 2003; super-scientific, ultra-gay; Lipstick Apathy

Orange Devil posted:

If Hamas sinks a carrier it's over for US power projection image.

Hamas has done some pretty miraculous things considering all of their weapons have to come in via underground tunnels but Hezbollah actually has a navy and real ASMs; they'd be the ones to do it.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 15:30

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

crosspost

fits my needs posted:

https://x.com/60Minutes/status/1713566648651657228?s=20

# ? Oct 15, 2023 17:27

HallelujahLee: May 3, 2009

Hubbert posted:

crosspost

# ? Oct 15, 2023 17:37

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Also, to revive an earlier conversation about Nord Stream, I'll share a little thing left on my desk ...

A YEAR OF LYING ABOUT NORD STREAM - Seymour Hersh; September 26, 2023 posted:

The Biden administration has acknowledged neither its responsibility for the pipeline bombing nor the purpose of the sabotage

A screen grab from Danish Defense shows the gas leak from the exploded Nord Stream pipelines causing bubbles on the surface of the Baltic Sea on September 30, 2022. / Photo by Swedish Coast Guard Handout / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

I do not know much about covert CIA operations�no outsider can�but I do understand that the essential component of all successful missions is total deniability. The American men and women who moved, under cover, in and out of Norway in the months it took to plan and carry out the destruction of three of the four Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea a year ago left no traces�not a hint of the team�s existence�other than the success of their mission.

Deniability, as an option for President Joe Biden and his foreign policy advisers, was paramount. No significant information about the mission was put on a computer, but instead typed on a Royal or perhaps a Smith Corona typewriter with a carbon copy or two, as if the Internet and the rest of the online world had yet to be invented. The White House was isolated from the goings-on near Oslo; various reports and updates from the field were directly provided to CIA Director Bill Burns, who was the only link between the planners and the president who authorized the mission to take place on September 26, 2022. Once the mission was completed, the typed papers and carbons were destroyed, thus leaving no physical trace�no evidence to be dug up later by a special prosecutor or a presidential historian. You could call it the perfect crime.

There was a flaw�a gap in understanding between those who carried out the mission and President Biden, as to why he ordered the destruction of the pipelines when he did. My initial 5,200-word report, published in early February, ended cryptically by quoting an official with knowledge of the mission telling me: �It was a beautiful cover story.� The official added: �The only flaw was the decision to do it.�

This is the first account of that flaw, on the one-year anniversary of the explosions, and it is one President Biden and his national security team will not like.

Inevitably, my initial story caused a sensation, but the major media emphasized the White House denials and relied on an old canard�my reliance on an unnamed source�to join the administration in debunking the notion that Joe Biden could have had anything to do with such an attack. I must note here that I�ve won literally scores of prizes in my career for stories in the New York Times and the New Yorker that relied on not a single named source. In the past year we�ve seen a series of contrary newspaper stories, with no named first-hand sources, claiming that a dissident Ukrainian group carried out the technical diving operation attack in the Baltic Sea via a 49-foot rented yacht called the Andromeda.

I am now able to write about the unexplained flaw cited by the unnamed official. It goes once again to the classic issue of what the Central Intelligence Agency is all about : an issue raised by Richard Helms, who headed the agency during the tumultuous years of the Vietnam War and the CIA�s secret spying on Americans, as ordered by President Lyndon Johnson and sustained by Richard Nixon. I published an expos� in the Times about that spying in December 1974 that led to unprecedented hearings by the Senate into the role of the agency in its unsuccessful attempts, authorized by President John F. Kennedy, to assassinate Cuba�s Fidel Castro. Helms told the senators that the issue was whether he, as CIA director, worked for the Constitution or for the Crown, in the person of presidents Johnson and Nixon. The Church Committee left the issue unresolved, but Helms made it clear he and his agency worked for the top man in the White House.

Back to the Nord Stream pipelines: It is important to understand that no Russian gas was flowing to Germany through the Nord Stream pipelines when Joe Biden ordered them blown up last September 26. Nord Stream 1 had been supplying vast amounts of low-cost natural gas to Germany since 2011 and helped bolster Germany�s status as a manufacturing and industrial colossus. But it was shut down by Putin by the end of August 2022, as the Ukraine war was, at best, in a stalemate. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021 but was blocked from delivering gas by the German government headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz two days prior to Russia�s invasion of Ukraine.

Given Russia�s vast stores of natural gas and oil, American presidents since John F. Kennedy have been alert to the potential weaponization of these natural resources for political purposes. That view remains dominant among Biden and his hawkish foreign policy advisers, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and Victoria Nuland, now the acting deputy to Blinken.

Sullivan convened a series of high-level national security meetings late in 2021, as Russia was building up its forces along the border of Ukraine, with an invasion seen as almost inevitable. The group, which included representatives from the CIA, was urged to come up with a proposal for action that could serve as a deterrent to Putin. The mission to destroy the pipelines was motivated by the White House�s determination to support Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Sullivan�s goal seemed clear. �The White House�s policy was to deter Russia from an attack,� the official told me. �The challenge it gave to the intelligence community was to come up with a way that was powerful enough to do that, and to make a strong statement of American capability.�

The major gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. / Map by Samuel Bailey / Wikimedia Commons.

I now know what I did not know then: the real reason why the Biden administration �brought up taking out the Nord Stream pipeline.� The official recently explained to me that at the time Russia was supplying gas and oil throughout the world via more than a dozen pipelines, but Nord Stream 1 and 2 ran directly from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany. �The administration put Nord Stream on the table because it was the only one we could access and it would be totally deniable,� the official said. �We solved the problem within a few weeks�by early January�and told the White House. Our assumption was that the president would use the threat against Nord Stream as a deterrent to avoid the war.�

It was no surprise to the agency�s secret planning group when on January 27, 2022, the assured and confident Nuland, then undersecretary of state for political affairs, stridently warned Putin that if he invaded Ukraine, as he clearly was planning to, that �one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.� The line attracted enormous attention, but the words preceding the threat did not. The official State Department transcript shows that she preceded her threat by saying that with regard to the pipeline: �We continue to have very strong and clear conversations with our German allies.�

Asked by a reporter how she could say with certainty that the Germans would go along �because what the Germans have said publicly doesn�t match what you�re saying,� Nuland responded with an astonishing bit of doubletalk: �I would say go back and read the document that we signed in July [of 2021] that made very clear about the consequences for the pipeline if there is further aggression on Ukraine by Russia.� But that agreement, which was briefed to journalists, did not specify threats or consequences, according to reports in the Times, the Washington Post, and Reuters. At the time of the agreement, on July 21, 2021, Biden told the press corps that since the pipeline was 99 percent finished, �the idea that anything was going to be said or done was going to stop it was not possible.� At the time, Republicans, led by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, depicted Biden�s decision to permit the Russian gas to flow as a �generational geopolitical win� for Putin and �a catastrophe� for the United States and its allies.

But two weeks after Nuland�s statement, on February 7, 2022, at a joint White House press conference with the visiting Scholz, Biden signaled that he had changed his mind and was joining Nuland and other equally hawkish foreign policy aides in talking about stopping the pipeline. �If Russia invades�that means tanks and troops crossing . . . the border of Ukraine again,� he said, �there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.� Asked how he could do so since the pipeline was under Germany�s control, he said: �We will, I promise you, we�ll be able to do it.�

Scholz, asked the same question, said: �We are acting together. We are absolutely united, and we will not be taking different steps. We will do the same steps, and they will be very very hard to Russia, and they should understand.� The German leader was considered then�and now�by some members of the CIA team to be fully aware of the secret planning underway to destroy the pipelines.

By this point, the CIA team had made the necessary contacts in Norway, whose navy and special forces commands have a long history of sharing covert-operation duties with the agency. Norwegian sailors and Nasty-class patrol boats helped smuggle American sabotage operatives into North Vietnam in the early 1960s when America, in both the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, was running an undeclared American war there. With Norway�s help, the CIA did its job and found a way to do what the Biden White House wanted done to the pipelines.

At the time, the challenge to the intelligence community was to come up with a plan that would be forceful enough to deter Putin from the attack on Ukraine. The official told me: �We did it. We found an extraordinary deterrent because of its economic impact on Russia. And Putin did it despite the threat.� It took months of research and practice in the churning waters of the Baltic Sea by the two expert US Navy deep sea divers recruited for the mission before it was deemed a go. Norway�s superb seamen found the right spot for planting the bombs that would blow up the pipelines. Senior officials in Sweden and Denmark, who still insist they had no idea what was going on in their shared territorial waters, turned a blind eye to the activities of the American and Norwegian operatives. The American team of divers and support staff on the mission�s mother ship�a Norwegian minesweeper�would be hard to hide while the divers were doing their work. The team would not learn until after the bombing that Nord Stream 2 had been shut down with 750 miles of natural gas in it.

What I did not know then, but was told recently, was that after Biden�s extraordinary public threat to blow up Nord Stream 2, with Scholz standing next to him, the CIA planning group was told by the White House that there would be no immediate attack on the two pipelines, but the group should arrange to plant the necessary bombs and be ready to trigger them �on demand��after the war began. �It was then that we��the small planning group that was working in Oslo with the Royal Norwegian Navy and special services on the project��understood that the attack on the pipelines was not a deterrent because as the war went on we never got the command.�

After Biden�s order to trigger the explosives planted on the pipelines, it took only a short flight with a Norwegian fighter and the dropping of an altered off-the-shelf sonar device at the right spot in the Baltic Sea to get it done. By then the CIA group had long disbanded. By then, too, the official told me: �We realized that the destruction of the two Russian pipelines was not related to the Ukrainian war��Putin was in the process of annexing the four Ukrainian oblasts he wanted��but was part of a neocon political agenda to keep Scholz and Germany, with winter coming up and the pipelines shut down, from getting cold feet and opening up� the shuttered Nord Stream 2. �The White House fear was that Putin would get Germany under his thumb and then he was going to get Poland.�

The White House said nothing as the world wondered who committed the sabotage. �So the president struck a blow against the economy of Germany and Western Europe,� the official told me. �He could have done it in June and told Putin: We told you what we would do.� The White House�s silence and denials were, he said, �a betrayal of what we were doing. If you are going to do it, do it when it would have made a difference.�

The leadership of the CIA team viewed Biden�s misleading guidance for its order to destroy the pipelines, the official told me, �as taking a strategic step toward World War III. What if Russia had responded by saying: You blew up our pipelines and I�m going to blow up your pipelines and your communication cables. Nord Stream was not a strategic issue for Putin�it was an economic issue. He wanted to sell gas. He�d already lost his pipelines� when the Nord Stream I and 2 were shut down before the Ukraine war began.

Within days of the bombing, officials in Denmark and Sweden announced they would conduct an investigation. They reported two months later that there had indeed been an explosion and said there would be further inquiries. None has emerged. The German government conducted an inquiry but announced that major parts of its findings would be classified. Last winter German authorities allocated $286 billion in subsidies to major corporations and homeowners who faced higher energy bills to run their business and warm their homes. The impact is still being felt today, with a colder winter expected in Europe.

President Biden waited four days before calling the pipeline bombing �a deliberate act of sabotage.� He said: �now the Russians are pumping out disinformation about it.� Sullivan, who chaired the meetings that led to the proposal to covertly destroy the pipelines, was asked at a later press conference whether the Biden administration �now believes that Russia was likely responsible for the act of sabotage?�

Sullivan�s answer, undoubtedly practiced, was: �Well, first, Russia has done what it frequently does when it is responsible for something, which is make accusations that it was really someone else who did it. We�ve seen this repeatedly over time.

�But the president was also clear today that there is more work to do on the investigation before the United States government is prepared to make an attribution in this case.� He continued: �We will continue to work with our allies and partners to gather all of the facts, and then we will make a determination about where we go from there.�

I could find no instances when Sullivan was subsequently asked by someone in the American press about the results of his �determination.� Nor could I find any evidence that Sullivan, or the president, has been queried since then about the results of the �determination� about where to go.

There is also no evidence that President Biden has required the American intelligence community to conduct a major all-source inquiry into the pipeline bombing. Such requests are known as �Taskings� and are taken seriously inside the government.

All of this explains why a routine question I posed a month or so after the bombings to someone with many years in the American intelligence community led me to a truth that no one in America or Germany seems to want to pursue. My question was simple: �Who did it?�

The Biden administration blew up the pipelines but the action had little to do with winning or stopping the war in Ukraine. It resulted from fears in the White House that Germany would waver and turn on the flow of Russia gas�and that Germany and then NATO, for economic reasons, would fall under the sway of Russia and its extensive and inexpensive natural resources. And thus followed the ultimate fear: that America would lose its long-standing primacy in Western Europe.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 18:23

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Hubbert posted:

Also, to revive an earlier conversation about Nord Stream, I'll share a little thing left on my desk ...

Ah so thread consensus at the time is now the official line. Hah.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 21:18

genericnick: Dec 26, 2012

Hubbert posted:

Also, to revive an earlier conversation about Nord Stream, I'll share a little thing left on my desk ...

Guess we have a motive for Hersh's sources now. They wanted to act real smug about the pipeline blowing up as soon as Russian tanks drove towards Kiev and maybe publish some "If I did it" memoir like the dozens of navy seals that claim to have shot Bin Laden. Instead, with the late timing and no gas flowing through the pipes it's apparent that the target was Germany so dropping hints of your cool James Bond poo poo while trying to get laid is out. Must rankle.

# ? Oct 15, 2023 22:42

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

skooma512 posted:

Weren’t people giving Russia poo poo for doing exactly this with their vehicles? The money even getting funneled to oligarch and high ranking officers dachas and yachts.

Also lol a guy named Isenhower made it to command. Like of the rest of the empire, a cheap imitation of the older better thing.

Strong who promoted Major Major vibes

# ? Oct 16, 2023 04:55

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

ProfessorBooty posted:

Yeah dude - so this is kind of a trip, and is almost 100% conjecture / conspiracy brain. I read words in news articles and I read closely in independent media (Such as Hersch), but in general, I really just try to pay attention to 'vibes' now, the emotion of the media apparatus, the emotion of those around me, the emotion of social media. So I'm not going to provide any sources or quotations, just my personal thought journey as things have unfolded since 2016.

So naturally, we must start in 2022.

Russia is running up to invading Ukraine. The US MIC is freaking out. They are warning us that it's going to happen, there are Russian troops gathering at the border. This is going to happen.

Then it happened.

I found that concerning - they didn't lie. In my mind I was thinking maybe they were getting us ready for it, or maybe they were trying to spin up social media so when it happened all the emotion would be diminished (manufacturing consent). But instead they start going insane. They didn't lie, though. Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine.

That's the thing that I really clung to. They said a thing that was going to happen, and it happened exactly like that. I know there are other times this is true, naturally, but it felt different this time.

you wrote a lot but i'll just clip this part.

russia invaded after the west predicted it, but don't forget the observers are not disconnected from being able to influence the result. a possible reading of the events is that they saw russia's military build up, thought it a bluff and decided to call it.

an honest belief in their prediction isn't required. there's no punishment for being wrong in this way. the (public) prediction itself can be meant as a warning or threat.

# ? Oct 16, 2023 13:22

VoicesCanBe: Jul 1, 2023; "Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

https://www.newsweek.com/china-isnt-going-war-because-it-doesnt-have-opinion-1834819

Surprisingly sensible article from Newsweek on China-Taiwan. Key points:

-acknowledges that China has no reason to attempt an amphibious landing on Taiwan because it can just blockade the island, which would end the "conflict" in short order
-also acknowledges that China isn't going to make a move unless Taiwan and the US push for de jure independence.
-accepts waning US power in the region

Granted, it ends all this with the typical "rah rah we must increase defense spending" BS but it does touch upon some important facts that run contrary to typical western reporting.

# ? Oct 16, 2023 14:08

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

Hubbert posted:

�The White House fear was that Putin would get Germany under his thumb and then he was going to get Poland.�

Once again, like his previous articles, this read as CIA either trying to shift blame or someone trying to smear the CIA.

# ? Oct 16, 2023 18:54

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Nord Stream would have also removed certain geopolitical influences granted to Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine by way of their current existence as "transit" countries who receive rents for allowing natural gas to flow through their terrain uninterrupted. They also get leverage against Russian aggression - the EU must help counter them, or the gas doesn't flow. Polish denouncement of Nord Stream, and consequent celebration when certain events occured, is great evidence for this.

It's also been an openly known policy objective of the USA to stymie the flow of fossil fuels from the Soviet Union (now Russia) to Western Europe for decades now, and this is the most blatant example of this.

Germany lost out -hard- in the Great Game here, with decades of planning down the drain.

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline, Seymour Hersh posted:

President Biden and his foreign policy team—National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland, the Undersecretary of State for Policy—had been vocal and consistent in their hostility to the two pipelines, which ran side by side for 750 miles under the Baltic Sea from two different ports in northeastern Russia near the Estonian border, passing close to the Danish island of Bornholm before ending in northern Germany.

The direct route, which bypassed any need to transit Ukraine, had been a boon for the German economy, which enjoyed an abundance of cheap Russian natural gas—enough to run its factories and heat its homes while enabling German distributors to sell excess gas, at a profit, throughout Western Europe. Action that could be traced to the administration would violate US promises to minimize direct conflict with Russia. Secrecy was essential.

From its earliest days, Nord Stream 1 was seen by Washington and its anti-Russian NATO partners as a threat to western dominance. The holding company behind it, Nord Stream AG, was incorporated in Switzerland in 2005 in partnership with Gazprom, a publicly traded Russian company producing enormous profits for shareholders which is dominated by oligarchs known to be in the thrall of Putin. Gazprom controlled 51 percent of the company, with four European energy firms—one in France, one in the Netherlands and two in Germany—sharing the remaining 49 percent of stock, and having the right to control downstream sales of the inexpensive natural gas to local distributors in Germany and Western Europe. Gazprom’s profits were shared with the Russian government, and state gas and oil revenues were estimated in some years to amount to as much as 45 percent of Russia’s annual budget.

America’s political fears were real: Putin would now have an additional and much-needed major source of income, and Germany and the rest of Western Europe would become addicted to low-cost natural gas supplied by Russia—while diminishing European reliance on America. In fact, that’s exactly what happened. Many Germans saw Nord Stream 1 as part of the deliverance of former Chancellor Willy Brandt’s famed Ostpolitik theory, which would enable postwar Germany to rehabilitate itself and other European nations destroyed in World War II by, among other initiatives, utilizing cheap Russian gas to fuel a prosperous Western European market and trading economy.

Nord Stream 1 was dangerous enough, in the view of NATO and Washington, but Nord Stream 2, whose construction was completed in September of 2021, would, if approved by German regulators, double the amount of cheap gas that would be available to Germany and Western Europe. The second pipeline also would provide enough gas for more than 50 percent of Germany’s annual consumption. Tensions were constantly escalating between Russia and NATO, backed by the aggressive foreign policy of the Biden Administration.

Opposition to Nord Stream 2 flared on the eve of the Biden inauguration in January 2021, when Senate Republicans, led by Ted Cruz of Texas, repeatedly raised the political threat of cheap Russian natural gas during the confirmation hearing of Blinken as Secretary of State. By then a unified Senate had successfully passed a law that, as Cruz told Blinken, “halted [the pipeline] in its tracks.” There would be enormous political and economic pressure from the German government, then headed by Angela Merkel, to get the second pipeline online.

Would Biden stand up to the Germans? Blinken said yes, but added that he had not discussed the specifics of the incoming President’s views. “I know his strong conviction that this is a bad idea, the Nord Stream 2,” he said. “I know that he would have us use every persuasive tool that we have to convince our friends and partners, including Germany, not to move forward with it.

Now, Europe has no choice but to be involved in Ukraine, because the United States made the choice for them by way of Nord Stream, by means of sabotaging the only pipelines that wouldn't undermine the influence of its Eastern European allies.

anyways sorry for getting so excited there, energy geopolitics is one of my favorite things in the world :kiddo:

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 21:46 on Oct 16, 2023

# ? Oct 16, 2023 21:41

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

the actual oddity is how content germany is with embracing the morgenthau plan as enacted through market-based solutions

# ? Oct 17, 2023 00:33

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

Danann posted:

the actual oddity is how content germany is with embracing the morgenthau plan as enacted through market-based solutions

I assume like half their political leaders were trained/promoted by some NGO that trains them to think of themselves as atlantists or europeans (aka enlightened white people) rather than German.

# ? Oct 17, 2023 02:32

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

crepeface posted:

I assume like half their political leaders were trained/promoted by some NGO that trains them to think of themselves as atlantists or europeans (aka enlightened white people) rather than German.

# ? Oct 17, 2023 02:39

sullat: Jan 9, 2012

Danann posted:

the actual oddity is how content germany is with embracing the morgenthau plan as enacted through market-based solutions

All the cool countries are deindustrializing, don't you want to be cool too?

# ? Oct 17, 2023 04:03

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

https://news.usni.org/2023/10/16/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-16-2023

In the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (CSG) are underway in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean is meant to deter Hezbollah and Iran from joining the war between Hamas and Israel, according to statements from the Pentagon. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the carrier strike group, which had been operating in the Mediterranean, closer to Italy, to move to the Eastern Mediterranean as part of the U.S. response to Hamas’ attacks on Israel. Hamas is a State Department-designated terrorist group that has been the ruling government of the occupied territory Gaza after Israel withdrew troops and settlers in 2005.

San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) and embarked 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable) Bravo Command Element are in the Mediterranean Sea. Mesa Verde is part of the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (ARG). Bataan and Carter Hall, the other two ships in the Bataan ARG, are currently operating in U.S. 5th Fleet.

--

In the Western Atlantic

USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group deployed on Saturday, Oct. 14. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the CSG to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 21:02 on Oct 17, 2023

# ? Oct 17, 2023 20:59

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

sullat posted:

All the cool countries are deindustrializing, don't you want to be cool too?

Deindustrialization and agitation against the productive nations. Use up the legacy treasure until even the ability to make bespoke replacements is lost, then sit in the crumbling ruins of empire wondering where that shining future of crystal spires and jetpacks went to.

China. It went to China.

# ? Oct 17, 2023 22:55