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Rakosi posted:This isn’t an accurate representation of the whole of what I have posted. "It is important to get this right, so I'll just accept anything." It doesn't seem terribly important to you judging by the fact that you don't see any harm in pushing your pet theory. Yeah, it can be a 'misfire', theoretically, but it's so unlikely that the fact that you're willing to entertain it over any obvious explanation says a lot about how important you believe it is to get it right. Like it's hell of a lot more of a coincidence that 'misfired' rocket would land just perfectly and with such immense force that it'd do damage literally hundred of times more lethal than any Gazan missile or rocket has done in a single attack. Even 'misfired' weapons in other conflicts have not done damage on this scale. The odds are a lot greater that, indeed, a big-boom missile came in and leveled the place.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:34
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1714431083175981556 That's surprising, because Jordan is one of the more peaceful/stable countries in the Middle East. There's no way this isn't escalating further.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:35
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https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1714358283354460396?t=MjXeFC7ZufM1SST8rmnu2A&s=19 Statement from the WHO. They don't come out and say it directly but it's pretty obvious they think Israel directly targeted the hospital.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:38
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Szarrukin posted:Unlike rest of goons I have zero knowledge about rockets except "they fly and go boom", I have no clue what JDAM is even after googling it, is there any ELI5 version of why it could/couldn't be Palestinian/Israeli rocket? Rockets fly and go boom. JDAMS fall and go boom (they're just bombs that fall from planes but more accurate). A normal bomb is usually just high explosives, while a rocket has high explosives in the warhead but also propellant to make it fly. High explosives burn super fast, so while you do get some flash out of them it tends to go away quickly and you're left with a cloud of dust. Propellant burns slowly and tends to turn into fireballs. In the videos of the explosion, we see a fireball. That's consistent with a rocket that hasn't burned all its fuel coming down (although it seems large for Palestinian rockets), or it's consistent with any explosive triggering a secondary explosion from a fuel truck or something. Hospitals tend to have things like liquid oxygen storage tanks that go boom and there have been troubles getting power so it's reasonable that the hospital would be stockpiling fuel to keep the hospital working. This leaves us with either possibility being at least plausible but nothing conclusively suggesting that either Palestine or Israel did it. The other thing is that several sources got videos of the explosion and there's a clear failure of some sort on a Palestinian rocket that's near the hospital when the explosion happens. It could be coincidence, it doesn't necessarily mean anything but it at least suggests that a misfiring rocket could have caused the explosion.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:41
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Tigey posted:Hamas aren't nice people, but whilst they are certainly willing to accept Palestinian civilians dying in the crossfire, I doubt even they would actively target one of their own hospitals. I think it’s reasonable to put the onus on Israel to explain the bombing here, but this sentiment is ludicrous. Hamas straight up told people to not evacuate the north so things would be harder and messier when Israel invaded. Root causes aside, they see their own citizens as tactical pawns.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:47
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I genuinely do think it's too early for anyone to say anything. At this point anything less than 100% absolute evidence is probably not going to move anyone's personal metric a single meter and even then I admit I (and I assume a lot of other people) would have to wonder if anything provided by the IDF is faked (and even if it was 100% real there would be people making pretty good arguments for why it must be fake because most of us know only the absolute bare minimum about this stuff and we're largely depending on twitter experts and 'experts.') I think it's entirely reasonable to view the entire thing has a horrifying atrocity that is the result of the razing of the area and even if it was a misfire or an accident it's still the end result of a battle in these situations.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:47
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This tweet from the 14th detailing a previous Israeli strike on the hospital shows the main building: https://x.com/naelaburahmoun/status/1713277174369632630?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q An eyewitness from MSF said that the ceiling fell on his operating theatre - most hospitals have those on or close to the ground floor in order to ensure that patients needing surgery have as short a distance as possible to travel from the entrance (and don't have to worry about stairs if the lifts aren't working). https://x.com/msf_usa/status/1714379597146411204?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q No loving way some piddly little misguided rocket punched through an entire multi-storey hospital.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:48
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Darth Walrus posted:This tweet from the 14th detailing a previous Israeli strike on the hospital shows the main building: though i do think you can see them cooking off in that one video
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Oct 18, 2023 01:50
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Yes, because it landed on the crowd of people outside on the hospital grounds/courtyard. The hospital is/was on fire, but I do not believe anyone has said the building itself was directly hit in the sense that an explosive penetrated down through floors of the building itself. Most of the casualties were outside, I think. Rakosi fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 01:51
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TheDisreputableDog posted:I think it’s reasonable to put the onus on Israel to explain the bombing here, but this sentiment is ludicrous. Hamas straight up told people to not evacuate the north so things would be harder and messier when Israel invaded. Root causes aside, they see their own citizens as tactical pawns. Israel killed dozens of people bombing southern Gaza this morning. They bombed people evacuating from "the north" (seems almost silly to even differentiate considering how small the strip is) before that.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:52
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Rakosi posted:Yes, because it landed on the crowd of people outside on the hospital grounds/courtyard. The hospital is/was on fire, but I do not believe anyone has said the building itself was directly hit in the sense that an explosive penetrated down through floors of the building itself. Did you entirely miss the MSF official statement I posted? The ceiling collapsed on a loving operating theatre.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:59
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Rakosi posted:Yes, because it landed on the crowd of people outside on the hospital grounds/courtyard. The hospital is/was on fire, but I do not believe anyone has said the building itself was directly hit in the sense that an explosive penetrated down through floors of the building itself. By the way I did some rudimentary research and the only rockets or missiles that Hamas or PIJ has access to have solid-state fuel. That is to say, the fuel would not impart additional boom, and usually by the time they are underway they have burned pretty much all of their fuel anyways.
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Oct 18, 2023 01:59
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Nazzadan posted:They did it an hour ago about this exact incident and then deleted the videos because they didn't prove anything, now they are making the exact same statement but saying they have audio logs this time. They've apparently provided audio to the US https://twitter.com/ZcohenCNN/status/1714431664967856146 But I suspect it will be something like this when Israel was trying to defend what it did aboard the Mavi Marmara: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dE2StbDL_Q&t=112s
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Oct 18, 2023 02:00
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IT BURNS posted:That's surprising, because Jordan is one of the more peaceful/stable countries in the Middle East. There's no way this isn't escalating further. They have more than two million Palestinian refugees in a country with about 11 million people, and a shitload of refugees from other countries in the region. Yeah, it's been stable for a long time, but the relationship between the Palestinian refugees and the monarchy hasn't always been wonderful, and it's not hard to see why Palestinians might be upset with any and all regional leaders they (pretty much correctly) believe have stopped giving a poo poo about the Palestinian cause. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_September
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Oct 18, 2023 02:01
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the big proof the IDF was teasing they had is just VO over the questionable video that everyone already saw https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714442617201586220?t=wCyrVucN96zVel37lr0FAQ&s=19 edit: an update https://twitter.com/GoodingTuba/status/1714421789789466982?t=yt_CXF7h_KfD4cK-tsgNDQ&s=19 punishedkissinger fucked around with this message at 02:12 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 02:06
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punishedkissinger posted:the big proof the IDF was teasing they had is just VO over the questionable video that everyone already saw Even if true, the tone is just insane. 500 innocents dead, and the IDF is posting like it caught Hamas using an aimbot.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:18
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Yeah, I've noticed the tone has been less and less professional. They could have said "This is a tragedy and we're inspecting the cause" and it would be drastically less lovely even if they either were at fault or knew they were at fault or any other possibility. Do they not have professional PR people all of a sudden?
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Oct 18, 2023 02:26
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If you are going to bomb a civilian area in a huge campaign you need really really exceptional evidence that a particular bomb was not you. You could have not bombed the civilian area. This is particularly true when they warned hospitals that they should be evactuated. It's true that theres a ton of disinformation going around and its very hard to tell whats going on, but the onus is on Israel here and acting like the evidence is 50/50 is not it.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:29
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The English language IDF accounts are big on reddit-speak and have been doing it for awhile.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:29
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NovemberMike posted:Rockets fly and go boom. JDAMS fall and go boom (they're just bombs that fall from planes but more accurate). A normal bomb is usually just high explosives, while a rocket has high explosives in the warhead but also propellant to make it fly. High explosives burn super fast, so while you do get some flash out of them it tends to go away quickly and you're left with a cloud of dust. Propellant burns slowly and tends to turn into fireballs. this is an informative and good post, regardless of the true root cause of the incident being discussed. thanks
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Oct 18, 2023 02:33
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Biden https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1714426083678851116?t=spUH0b2AT6dUXNG_TERlmw&s=19 Like with the WHO, the fact he's talking about intentional targeting implies the US is on the side of deliberate strike.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:35
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Couple of questions, what sources have been reporting the 500 people death toll? Is there possibility for it to go significantly higher? Absolutely sickening that this could happen, this has to be one of the highest death tolls from a single miissile attack in history.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:38
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CuddleCryptid posted:Biden Huh? What words/phrase does he use to suggest that it was intentional? If anything, to me it seems like he was going out of his way to ensure there's no intentionality behind it (presumably to not offend Israel)
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Oct 18, 2023 02:40
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Oct 18, 2023 02:42
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khwarezm posted:Couple of questions, what sources have been reporting the 500 people death toll? Is there possibility for it to go significantly higher? 500 people is the official death toll as reported by most mainstream international media sources. It's fully expected to rise - informal numbers I've seen on my timeline peg it to 800-1000.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:46
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Kalit posted:Huh? What words/phrase does he use to suggest that it was intentional? If it was a matter of a rocket being shot out of the sky and dropping on the hospital then there would be no question of protection of civilian life, because it was a freak accident. The wording implies a degree of intentionality because it implies something can be done about it.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:50
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NovemberMike posted:Rockets fly and go boom. JDAMS fall and go boom (they're just bombs that fall from planes but more accurate). A normal bomb is usually just high explosives, while a rocket has high explosives in the warhead but also propellant to make it fly. High explosives burn super fast, so while you do get some flash out of them it tends to go away quickly and you're left with a cloud of dust. Propellant burns slowly and tends to turn into fireballs. Gazan rockets are typically solid-state fuel rockets, so the propellants aren’t terribly explosive, and they don’t have very much propellant to begin with.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:50
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 02:51
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khwarezm posted:Couple of questions, what sources have been reporting the 500 people death toll? Is there possibility for it to go significantly higher? Forget single missile - if it's confirmed to be a JDAM, it would make the Wikipedia list of largest air raids: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_and_other_violent_events_by_death_toll#Individual_air_raids
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Oct 18, 2023 02:53
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Yeah, I've noticed the tone has been less and less professional. TBH if they had said something like that it would have come off as extremely disingenuous. There’s really nothing they can say.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:56
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CuddleCryptid posted:If it was a matter of a rocket being shot out of the sky and dropping on the hospital then there would be no question of protection of civilian life, because it was a freak accident. The wording implies a degree of intentionality because it implies something can be done about it.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:58
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My personal hunch is that, if whatever Israel gave the US made them confident that Israel didn't do it (or at the very least could sufficiently muddy the waters) US statements would be more along the lines of condemning Hamas & reiterating support for Israel. It's what's not in the statement that makes me think Israel absolutely did it.
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Oct 18, 2023 03:04
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Neurolimal posted:My personal hunch is that, if whatever Israel gave the US made them confident that Israel didn't do it (or at the very least could sufficiently muddy the waters) US statements would be more along the lines of condemning Hamas & reiterating support for Israel. It's what's not in the statement that makes me think Israel absolutely did it. Yeah this is pretty much my thoughts exactly.
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Oct 18, 2023 03:05
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Gonna guess the culprit was the side with the ordinance that could level a high rise and not the one that would struggle to level a duplex. A 10kg low yield warhead couldn't level my home much less a hospital.
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Oct 18, 2023 03:08
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KillHour posted:Forget single missile - if it's confirmed to be a JDAM, it would make the Wikipedia list of largest air raids: It can go up next to Guernica.
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Oct 18, 2023 03:10
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Shaocaholica posted:TBH if they had said something like that it would have come off as extremely disingenuous. There’s really nothing they can say. It would sound disingenuous because Israel's official statements came out of the gate pounding on the table. You can't walk that back down to passive voice without sounding like you're admitting you hosed up. Jethro posted:Even if the hospital explosion was an accident, someone chose to fire the rocket with a hospital down range. I agree with the other poster who thinks this is worded very carefully to not assign blame to any of the possible responsible parties just yet. This kind of goes back to what I said earlier about the US government generally being careful not to jump the gun when it comes to making claims. They have not been doing a very good job of it for the past week, and I think someone probably realized that and is trying to course correct. Or I should say I sincerely hope that's what's happening. Neurolimal posted:My personal hunch is that, if whatever Israel gave the US made them confident that Israel didn't do it (or at the very least could sufficiently muddy the waters) US statements would be more along the lines of condemning Hamas & reiterating support for Israel. It's what's not in the statement that makes me think Israel absolutely did it. This is part of why I think the US isn't just going to lie about it to protect Israel. Bel Shazar posted:It can go up next to Guernica. It's really loving crazy that all of those are WWII except that one, which was still WWII-adjacent. KillHour fucked around with this message at 03:14 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 03:11
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Neurolimal posted:My personal hunch is that, if whatever Israel gave the US made them confident that Israel didn't do it (or at the very least could sufficiently muddy the waters) US statements would be more along the lines of condemning Hamas & reiterating support for Israel. It's what's not in the statement that makes me think Israel absolutely did it. I'm guessing it would take the US more than ~an hour or two to verify the audio. That's assuming the US cares enough to properly verify it, of course...
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Oct 18, 2023 03:12
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NovemberMike posted:Rockets fly and go boom. JDAMS fall and go boom (they're just bombs that fall from planes but more accurate). A normal bomb is usually just high explosives, while a rocket has high explosives in the warhead but also propellant to make it fly. High explosives burn super fast, so while you do get some flash out of them it tends to go away quickly and you're left with a cloud of dust. Propellant burns slowly and tends to turn into fireballs. Really circling the drain on the bolded point for a lot of reasons, here's a couple: 1. They design the tanks these things are stored in to be pretty safe up to some pretty harsh conditions, they are not a bomb waiting to happen or we'd have hospital explosions all over the world 2. This is a hospital operating deeply over capacity in the most heavily sanctioned war zone on planet earth, where did they get enough oxygen to level a hospital, and why wasn't that being consumed by patients? They're not letting huge tanker trucks full of flammable and explosive materiel into Gaza City right now, it stretches plausibility to attribute the absolutely massive explosion to things the hospital is unlikely to have in the quantity needed to do this kind of damage At this point, "The bomb hit a Hamas weapons stockpile!" is a more likely explanation and there's even less evidence supporting that
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Oct 18, 2023 03:15
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If you want to give the benefit of the doubt to Biden, the bar needed to accuse an ally like Israel of something this atrocious is incredibly high, and making any kind of really declarative statement before the national intelligence guys have gone over every last pixel with an electron microscope is taking a risk that a President probably shouldn't be taking. I don't doubt for a second that the IDF did this (And frankly the whole situation in Gaza is their fault anyway so even if it was a Hamas gently caress-up, I'd still consider Israel to bear the vast majority of the blame) but if I was advising a national leader like Biden or Sunak or something I would absolutely be emphasizing that he can't come out and explicitly declare the responsible party to be the IDF until that work is done by the intel guys because getting it wrong, however small the chance, would be the biggest catastrophe of his Presidency/Premiership. Of course, that applies a hell of a lot less to accusing Hamas or to PIJ so the fact Biden hasn't condemned them, as Neurolimal said, does make it easy to infer that there's very little if anything pointing to them being responsible.
Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 03:17
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Israel only uses white phosphorus on hospitals, not bunker busters.
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Oct 18, 2023 03:22
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