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A big flaming stink posted:I personally think the most compelling evidence Israel did it was that the guy in charge of Israel's online propaganda took credit for the attack immediately after it happened.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:05
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:11
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For that matter, do we have any proof the booster rocket video isn't edited? Apart from the . . .weirdness with the timestamping?
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Oct 18, 2023 14:12
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The site sure doesn't look like it has a major impact crater to me. I don't know what exactly hit there or how it happened, but we can at least probably rule out a JDAM at this point, right? So maybe all the armchair ballistics experts who said it was obviously a JDAM don't know what they're talking about.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:12
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Thanks for the roundup. So there was definitely some initial confusion but points 5 and 6 stand?
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Oct 18, 2023 14:15
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Dr Kool-AIDS posted:The site sure doesn't look like it has a major impact crater to me. I don't know what exactly hit there or how it happened, but we can at least probably rule out a JDAM at this point, right? So maybe all the armchair ballistics experts who said it was obviously a JDAM don't know what they're talking about. Bombs do not make the kind of dramatic craters you're imaging. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/08/18/19432/  This is the small crater of a reported Mk82 bomb, comparable to many of the 500lb munitions in the Israeli arsenal, including the JDAM which has a 500lb variant. The parking lot photos are an extremely savvy PR move by the IDF because the site of many bombing attacks just won't look as dramatic or shocking as people expect from an event that killed hundreds, but they aren't proof of anything really. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:15
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Yeah this is the big thing that flips it for me. A typical Israeli airstrike would've reduced that hospital to a crater, while what seems to have happened is a strike on the car park that destroyed a few cars in the initial explosion and resulted in several more catching fire. That's actually pretty consistent with the level of damage Palestinian rockets typically cause. What really confuses me is that the humanitarian organizations in the hospital, especially MSF, were talking about structural damage in a way that contradicts the explosion happening in a parking lot outside the building. While things can get confusing in the heat of the moment, misunderstanding if the ceiling is caving in or not seems hard to do.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:17
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In the end Israel is continuing to bomb the country to smithereens. So while this may have been a misfire. The rest of the time they are hitting what they want. gently caress em. The video of a child with a building on top of their head as their lifeless body hangs as people try to get it out to give the child some type of dignity is heart wrenching. gently caress anyone supporting these monsters.
Vintersorg fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:23
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CuddleCryptid posted:What really confuses me is that the humanitarian organizations in the hospital, especially MSF, were talking about structural damage in a way that contradicts the explosion happening in a parking lot outside the building. While things can get confusing in the heat of the moment, misunderstanding if the ceiling is caving in or not seems hard to do. I mean, a big explosion right outside could certainly knock a bunch of tiles off the ceiling on to your head in a way that is highly distressing.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:24
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So has this gone from 'Israel destroyed a hospital killing 500+' to 'something blew up the parking lot outside, death toll unknown'? Or has the death toll been more or less confirmed? pro starcraft loser fucked around with this message at 14:27 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:25
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Ciprian Maricon posted:Bombs do not make the kind of dramatic craters you're imaging. Even less if the bomb is set to airburst, which JDAMs can be fitted for. Which would be what theyd use if they wanted to eliminate forces on the surface, say like a rocket crew.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:30
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pro starcraft loser posted:So has this gone from 'Israel destroyed a hospital killing 500+' to 'something blew up the parking lot outside, death toll unknown'? This. A lot of media ran with what Hamas spokespeople said 20 minutes after an explosion for some reason.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:31
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pumpinglemma posted:Some of the wild bullshit that the IDF threw at the wall was too liquid to be easily cleaned off within a few hours, so in that sense it "stands" I guess? But if you don't consider most of what they said having turned out to be obvious lies to be an argument against believing the rest I'm really not sure what to tell you.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:31
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pro starcraft loser posted:So has this gone from 'Israel destroyed a hospital killing 500+' to 'something blew up the parking lot outside, death toll unknown'? We'll bring you more from their statement soon. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world...post_type=share
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Oct 18, 2023 14:33
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https://twitter.com/Evolutionistrue/status/1714635195113263336 It doesn't inspire much confidence that people in the MSM will never be held accountable for poo poo like this.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:38
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pro starcraft loser posted:So has this gone from 'Israel destroyed a hospital killing 500+' to 'something blew up the parking lot outside, death toll unknown'? That’s basically the gist of it, the past five pages or so has just been people arguing based on vibes that support their priors. There’s been no evidence of a specific death count outside of an Al Jazeera report quoting Hamas, which was released moments after the bombing occurred. It would have been impossible to even have an order of magnitude estimate of the count that was accurate at that time.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:39
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Seph posted:That’s basically the gist of past five pages or so has just been people arguing based on vibes that support their priors. There’s been no evidence of a specific death count outside of an Al Jazeera report quoting Hamas, which was released moments after the bombing occurred. It would have been impossible to even have an order of magnitude estimate of the count that was accurate at that time.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:44
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CuddleCryptid posted:What really confuses me is that the humanitarian organizations in the hospital, especially MSF, were talking about structural damage in a way that contradicts the explosion happening in a parking lot outside the building. While things can get confusing in the heat of the moment, misunderstanding if the ceiling is caving in or not seems hard to do. This thread is quite considered and probably the best one I've read on it and fills in a bunch of holes from the twitter OSINT folks: https://x.com/FSBRG/status/1714609431877431713?s=20 e: - tl;dr quite likely an Israeli drone strike; these explode above ground but powerfully which is why no crater but explains the large number of dead; the ceiling collapse was clarified by abu sitta (who lost his phone in the strike and wasn't able to update) - it collapsed the false ceiling in the operating theatres rather than the whole structure. Seph posted:That’s basically the gist of it, the past five pages or so has just been people arguing based on vibes that support their priors. There’s been no evidence of a specific death count outside of an Al Jazeera report quoting Hamas, which was released moments after the bombing occurred. It would have been impossible to even have an order of magnitude estimate of the count that was accurate at that time. The health ministry has just confirmed. You can say that it's inflated but I doubt it is. Ghassan Abu Sitta suggests the number of dead exceeds 500. I've got 0 reason to doubt him. He lives in London and has a lucrative practice. He's downed tools for Yemen and Gaza before. He's not some Hamas mouthpiece. He's seen hundreds of bodies and hundreds of wounded there. https://x.com/FSBRG/status/1714609467206095255?s=20 <-- see his posts here kolby posted:Are people getting the hospitals mixed up or something? You've got to bear in mind a few things: - The hospital as a perceived safe space was rammed - It looks like the blast probably killed anyone outside and some people inside - The blast caused severe injuries - the hospital is already debilitated by previous bombings; the people suffering from hunger and probably a good number of them have pre-existing wounds - A large number may have been lying down quite possibly head to foot - The blast from outside looks to have been large (and if it exploded above ground rather than on the ground, can see how it would have hit *lots* of people) Hong XiuQuan fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:44
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Seph posted:That’s basically the gist of it, the past five pages or so has just been people arguing based on vibes that support their priors. There’s been no evidence of a specific death count outside of an Al Jazeera report quoting Hamas, which was released moments after the bombing occurred. It would have been impossible to even have an order of magnitude estimate of the count that was accurate at that time. When you read a story quoting the CDC or the NIH do you think of it as quoting the Democratic Party?
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Oct 18, 2023 14:46
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https://x.com/icjpalestine/status/1714624954455486643?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q A British-Palestinian surgeon at the Al-Ahli hospital is lawyering up in response to both the strike and harassment of his family in the UK by counterterrorism police.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:47
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CSM posted:The Palestinian Health Ministry has just said 471 people were killed in the blast at the hospital in Gaza on Tuesday, with 314 injured. Are people getting the hospitals mixed up or something? I genuinely don't understand how we have footage of the hospital still standing and reports like this are still coming out. The fact that they are doubling down on the death toll is confusing.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:50
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kolby posted:Are people getting the hospitals mixed up or something? The hospital's still standing, the explosion was in the courtyard where a lot of people had apparently fled to from elsewhere.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:51
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Brucolac posted:He says, seconds after a recent estimate putting current casualties at 471 people. To be clear, I wasn’t saying the death toll wasn’t 500 (or any other number) - my point was that a fog of war estimate released minutes after the bombing occurred should not be considered reliable, even if it supports your priors. That the initial report was close to the 471 count confirmed by the Healthy Ministry doesn’t change that fact. Groovelord Neato posted:When you read a story quoting the CDC or the NIH do you think of it as quoting the Democratic Party? That Health Ministry number came out as I was replying. I clearly stated in my post that the estimate released minutes after the bombing occurred was not reliable. I have no reason to doubt the 471 deaths number the Health Ministry just released. Seph fucked around with this message at 14:54 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:51
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Some updated daytime images/video. I don't see any nms stuff so I won't tag. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714571559954731398 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714587746612740278 Whatever hit the courtyard burned a lot. Could the cars have had that much fuel in them to burn like that? I wouldn't think so, especially with fuel shortages. kolby posted:Are people getting the hospitals mixed up or something? The courtyard was packed with healthcare workers and people sheltering in the open, believing the hospital would be spared from bombing. ummel fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:53
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Seph posted:To be clear, I wasn’t saying the death toll wasn’t 500 (or any other number) - my point was that a fog of war estimate released minutes after the bombing occurred should not be considered reliable, even if it supports your priors. That the initial report was close to the 471 count confirmed by the Healthy Ministry doesn’t change that fact. You said it might be off by an order to magnitude. As in we shouldn’t be surprised if the real number were 5 or 5000. Actually I think more than 5 bodies were visible in the press conference. Are you accusing the hospital of using crisis actors to pose as corpses? e: I’m an idiot. 50 or 5000. So I guess no crisis actors (though those bodies alone would still represent a substantial portion of 50) eSports Chaebol fucked around with this message at 14:56 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:53
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My main source of skepticism towards the IDF is that as far as I know most if not all of their munitions are guided, seems like they'd have some record of what they're bombing and when. If they wanted to exculpate themselves it seems like it'd be pretty easy to say "These are the targets we bombed during this time period" and allow the US to verify their claims. I can't wrap my head around the fact that the most convincing evidence they can offer the US is a recording of a conversation that proves absolutely nothing.
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Oct 18, 2023 14:54
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 14:54
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an MSF doctor who was there said this: https://twitter.com/FSBRG/status/1714638724015804486
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Oct 18, 2023 14:57
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https://x.com/NathanJRobinson/status/1714638868681494658?s=20 So we have confirmed Israeli bombings in the area, coupled with multiple Palestinian rocket launches in the area, and footage of a failed rocket...
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Oct 18, 2023 15:00
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eSports Chaebol posted:You said it might be off by an order to magnitude. As in we shouldn’t be surprised if the real number were 5 or 5000. Actually I think more than 5 bodies were visible in the press conference. Are you accusing the hospital of using crisis actors to pose as corpses? What? This is an absurd reach. Are you seriously suggesting that saying “this initial casualty count is unreliable” is equivalent to “the hospital is using crisis actors”? Jesus Christ get a grip. It is undeniable that initial estimates of mass casualty events can be off by orders of magnitude. I remember people saying on 9/11 that it could be up to 20,000 dead. That does not mean every estimate ends up being wrong (as is the case here) - it just means you should take initial estimates with a huge grain of salt. Seph fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 15:02
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The crater is too small for the one(1) size munition the IDF has.
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Oct 18, 2023 15:04
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According to Al-Arabiya TV, the Evangelical Church of Jerusalem (the owners of the hospital) say they received three phoned warnings from the IDF before the hospital was bombed. https://x.com/alarabytv_brk/status/1714602791434371262?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q
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Oct 18, 2023 15:06
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Seph posted:What? This is an absurd reach. Are you seriously suggesting that saying “this initial casualty count is unreliable” is equivalent to “the hospital is using crisis actors”? Jesus Christ get a grip. Hospital workers are famously pretty good at telling whether someone is dead or not. While I can imagine the death toll being revised down into the lower hundreds because tying to guess how many corpses are in that pile is a lot like guessing how many jelly beans are in the jar, the allegation floating around is that this was actually a qassam piss rocket that barely did any damage so really only a few people died. But they had a goddamn press conference in among the dead, so either those piles of bodies were real (and it wasn't a dinky lil rocket) or what... They laid down and covered themselves in cranberry sauce?
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Oct 18, 2023 15:11
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In theory, even a relatively small blast outside the hospital could cause many fatalities if it shattered windows and sent flying glass through packed crowds.
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Oct 18, 2023 15:13
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I think this is an important event that should be as 0) on the timeline. https://twitter.com/FSBRG/status/1714609456279855380 E: Just so it's clear, it's also circumstantial evidence, but it should be kept in mind.
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Oct 18, 2023 15:17
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MadSparkle posted:Not really a fan of Piers Morgan at all. My cousin in Egypt sent me this and it was so bizarre to watch . I love Bassem Youssef and wasn’t expecting him on here . He really loves Ben Shapiro , apparently 😂 A bit late to reply but holy poo poo what an interview. The pain in that mans eyes. 
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Oct 18, 2023 15:24
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The Guardian posted:Our senior international affairs correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison reports: This paints a pretty grim picture of how this played out regardless of the actual source of the ordinance. But 3x warnings to flee and two previous missile strikes also paint a picture. mannerup posted:there is no proof of this statement outside of that tweet from The Spectator Index which cites Al Jazeera (where I have been unable to find the original claim from them) Brucolac fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Oct 18, 2023 |
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Oct 18, 2023 15:27
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Mia Wasikowska posted:an MSF doctor who was there said this: He mentions seeing someone with a neck perforation in the ER. Shrapnel could have been flying through a packed ER full of already sick and injured patients. I could easily buy the casualty numbers even if the whole building didn't collapse and the outside "doesn't look that bad".
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Oct 18, 2023 15:28
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Biden recently cited information from the Pentagon for his belief that Israel was not responsible. Obviously the Pentagon could be wrong or Biden could be lying, but that's much more certain than US sources were being ~12 hours ago. Edit: quote from Washington Post live thread at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/18/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-update/: quote:Biden, who embraced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu upon landing Wednesday, said material suggested the strike was “done by the other team, not you.” Later, Biden said he felt confident due to “the data I was shown by my Defense Department,” but he did not share more details.
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Oct 18, 2023 15:29
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Brucolac posted:This paints a pretty grim picture of how this played out regardless of the actual source of the ordinance. I hadn't really thought about it but if they were sending out warnings to evacuate then people were probably running to a place that they thought would be safe since it is a protected target, ie the hospital. Without anything close to underground shelter to hide in, I would have probably done the same thing in that circumstance, because surely they wouldn't stoop so low to bomb a hospital, right?
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Oct 18, 2023 15:30
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