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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

CommissarMega posted:

For most militaries, yes, but this Russia were talking about, and so we have to factor in vranyo- how sure can we be that the poor dumbshits who run those facilities will actually report accurate numbers back to their superiors?

I imagine the Russian commander giving orders to quickly clear the wreckage of the destroyed helicopters and have them replaced with new ones so that the command doesn't figure out that they had such heavy losses

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Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

aniviron posted:

Yeah letting your airfield get shelled a second time would be almost as dumb as pushing a failed attack into a fortified position that cost you 100+ armored vehicles and thousands of lives a second time when nothing has changed. They'd never do that.

This whole war is an encapsulation of that mentality. When we started hearing about massed troops on the border in December everyone shrugged it off. "No way they'd be dumb enough to attack." And here we are, so many thousands dead and millions uprooted.

Parking more helicopters in Berdyansk would follow the Russian playbook from the Chornobaivka airport and Berdyansk port. Ukraine demonstrating that they can hit a place doesn't mean that Russia finds it at all necesarry or prudent to remove assets from that place.

Deptfordx
Dec 23, 2013

mobby_6kl posted:

^^^^
21

If only anyone knew they could be useful before!

That's probably it for the low hanging fruit though unless the russians just insist on replenishing that field with more helicopters again.

Didn't they last year keep positioning airplanes at the same airport/base, despite it kept getting hit over and over again?

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Collapsing Farts posted:

I dunno if those numbers are correct (trust no info in war) but either way the russians are obviously suffering a lot of losses right now, as video shows a lot of armor being destroyed during really sloppy russian ops

Ukraine numbers tend to be over estimates but not that far beyond reality that they are absurd (like what Russia tries to claim). Mobby_6kl's pretty right in their summary of how Ukraine's estimates tend to stack up

The thing with the daily number is there's a godawful amount of video and images to back up that the last 24hours has been a complete disaster for Russia and there is a loooot of military hardware destroyed.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




NoiseAnnoys posted:

lol were they папироси?



I remember these. We used to buy them because they are really convenient for smoking weed. Just blow out the tobacco and fill it back up with weed. I would also smoke one or two of them just for fun and they have really unusual taste compared to normal cigarettes, but try smoking more and this unusual taste starts to feel absolutely vile.

NoiseAnnoys
May 17, 2010

Sekenr posted:

I remember these. We used to buy them because they are really convenient for smoking weed. Just blow out the tobacco and fill it back up with weed. I would also smoke one or two of them just for fun and they have really unusual taste compared to normal cigarettes, but try smoking more and this unusual taste starts to feel absolutely vile.

yeah, they just feel bad. when i lived in lviv only the most hardcore die-hard ex-soviet lunatics smoked them. i don't even know if they still make them, i hope not.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009


Organic night vision, i'm impressed. :)

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Charlz Guybon posted:

If true, Russian ability to respond with attack helicopters to Ukranian armored movements has been gutted
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1715132980652310662

While impressive, the number of destroyed choppers is not the most important consequence of this attack. What will make a much bigger difference are the decisions Russia will need to make around basing locations for the helicopter fleet and the diversion of air defence resources to locations that didn't previously need it.

Russian doctrine calls for helicopters to be based close to the front lines so they can be reactive to requests for support from frontline troops. They consider this to be a pretty important capability which was why they kept using that airfield despite Ukraine repeatedly hitting it with artillery and wrecking huge amounts of equipment - for a long time the availability of helicopter support close to the front was considered to be worth the sacrifice of a lot of materiel. Pushing their available bases even further back is going to make their helicopter fleet far less responsive and give them less loiter time in the combat area, given helicopters where a major thorn in the side of Ukrainian tanks in recent offensives this is a pretty big deal for them.

malder
Feb 7, 2005

Grimey Drawer

Owling Howl posted:

Parking more helicopters in Berdyansk would follow the Russian playbook from the Chornobaivka airport and Berdyansk port. Ukraine demonstrating that they can hit a place doesn't mean that Russia finds it at all necesarry or prudent to remove assets from that place.

If supreme commander Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin tells the world that Russia can intercept ATACMS, you will not find a general who will say otherwise, making it very much possible that they will park new helicopters on the airfields that got wrecked by the UAF. The Russian army and its commanders are notorious for just following orders and not thinking for themselves.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

malder posted:

If supreme commander Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin tells the world that Russia can intercept ATACMS, you will not find a general who will say otherwise, making it very much possible that they will park new helicopters on the airfields that got wrecked by the UAF. The Russian army and its commanders are notorious for just following orders and not thinking for themselves.

They shouldn’t even be an issue. After all, Russia claims to have destroyed more HIMARS launchers than were ever produced.

Shaman Tank Spec
Dec 26, 2003

*blep*



HonorableTB posted:

I agree with this. The Russians are monumentally stupid when it comes to war but not even the Russians will allow this to happen a second time.

:hmmyes: Just quickly for no particular reason, how many times did Ukrainians blow up huge Russian ammo stockpiles and other poo poo at that one airport again?

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

HonorableTB posted:

I agree with this. The Russians are monumentally stupid when it comes to war but not even the Russians will allow this to happen a second time. They're going to disperse their aircraft but that just hurts them too because the more dispersed their air power is, the more resources it will take to do an air strike with them, get them to the front for CAS, or to do behind the lines strategic attacks. An Alligator that has to fly 100+ miles to reach the front has burned half of its fuel by the time it even gets to where the fighting is. That drastically reduces the combat potential of any aircraft sent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHC1230OpOg

Jimlit
Jun 30, 2005



Sekenr posted:

I remember these. We used to buy them because they are really convenient for smoking weed. Just blow out the tobacco and fill it back up with weed. I would also smoke one or two of them just for fun and they have really unusual taste compared to normal cigarettes, but try smoking more and this unusual taste starts to feel absolutely vile.

NoiseAnnoys posted:

lol were they папироси?




lol I thought this was just a gag from the fifth element

staberind
Feb 20, 2008

but i dont wanna be a spaceship
Fun Shoe
ah, the cigarettes that make Gauloises luxury by comparison.

weg
Jun 6, 2006

Reassisted Retrogression

Jimlit posted:

lol I thought this was just a gag from the fifth element

Except I'm gonna guess it's just cardboard and not actually a filter lol.

zone
Dec 6, 2016


Apparently, the whole harebrained attempt to capture Avdiivka that ended thrice in failure was because the idiots in the vatnik General Staff wanted to give monke a present. Well, continue doubling down at your earliest convenience so your whole armored reserve is drained by next Spring.

3D Megadoodoo
Nov 25, 2010

weg posted:

Except I'm gonna guess it's just cardboard and not actually a filter lol.

It's not supposed to be a filter, it's a mouthpiece.

NoiseAnnoys
May 17, 2010

weg posted:

Except I'm gonna guess it's just cardboard and not actually a filter lol.

it is, lol

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Newest from Jack Watling at RUSI:

quote:

Ukraine Must Prepare for a Hard Winter

The lack of a breakthrough in Ukraine’s summer offensive and the shift in materiel advantage mean that Kyiv must fight carefully if it is to retain the initiative

Despite the determined efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), five months of offensive operations have not breached Russia’s defence lines in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine retains some options to make Russian dispositions uncomfortable, but it is highly unlikely that there will be a breakthrough towards Tokmak this year unless Russian forces decide to withdraw. The Ukrainians now face a difficult set of competing imperatives: to maintain pressure on the Russians while reconstituting their units for future offensive operations.

[...]

Ukraine will face further challenges because of the shifting balance of materiel advantage. Over the summer Ukraine gained fires superiority for the first time, delivering more rounds per day onto Russian positions than came back in many sectors. This was critical to the progress made, but saw an ammunition consumption rate above 200,000 rounds per month.

Sufficient ammunition to sustain this rate of fire is not going to be forthcoming as NATO stockpiles deplete, and production rates for ammunition remain too low to meet this level of demand.
On the Russian side, by comparison, production has turned a corner. Not only is Russian domestic ammunition production rising rapidly, but new ammunition production is being supplied from Iran, North Korea and other states. Bottlenecks in spare barrels and other critical parts will prevent Russia from establishing fires dominance for the next quarter, while NATO production should increase later in 2024, but for a while Ukraine faces the challenge of maintaining Russian attrition without an abundance of artillery.

[...]

For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022 Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month, and this is supplemented by large numbers of Geran-2 UAVs. Furthermore, on 18 October, UN Security Council restrictions on Iran’s missile programme lapsed. Russia has been pushing for Iran to supply it with missiles after that date, with an expectation that this will provide a large supply of missiles in the winter. NATO’s ability to expand the production of interceptors and radar for air defences is therefore critical.

[...]

The winter once again poses an opportunity to maximise Russian losses. If Russian troops are drawn into the defence along a wide front, with Ukrainian troops pushing into opportunities rather than trying to break through defended areas, then Russian forces will be outside, getting wet and cold. If targeted strikes can degrade their logistics, then the limited training and fieldcraft of Russian forces can maximise climactic injuries. It is notable that Russian casualties last winter were exceedingly high, even when Russia had fires superiority.

Further activity in the Black Sea is also important. Firstly, expanding the threat to the Crimean Peninsula spreads out increasingly threatened and scarce defensive systems like the S-400. Secondly, the progressive erosion of the Black Sea Fleet’s freedom of manoeuvre helps to set the conditions for the isolation of Crimea in 2024. While these conditions can be created, however, they are all dependent upon the AFU being able to reconstitute. With Washington embroiled in political dysfunction, the assurances needed to plan for 2024 will increasingly fall on European capitals. Thus, for Ukraine’s international partners, the task of creating the conditions for a successful campaign in 2024 must be committed to today.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-must-prepare-hard-winter

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

zone posted:


Apparently, the whole harebrained attempt to capture Avdiivka that ended thrice in failure was because the idiots in the vatnik General Staff wanted to give monke a present. Well, continue doubling down at your earliest convenience so your whole armored reserve is drained by next Spring.

But Putin already successfully denazified Ukraine by dumping white phosphorous on Mariupol and exposed NATO and especially the USA as paper tigers that are complete utter jokes that world should abandon, what more could he want?????

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

loving concerning if the mighty foundries of *checks notes* Iran and North Korea are able to outproduce NATO

Fabulous Knight
Nov 11, 2011

Okay, NATO stockpiles are being depleted. That sounds grim and honestly I did not see that coming. I guess this must be because Ukraine is still using old leftover stuff as of right now and starting/restarting ammunition production takes time, and can take as long as two years after the start of the conflict?

Or alternatively, "how the gently caress is this possible".

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1715217945968947557

lol wtf...I mean wtf

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

When you huff your own farts for that long it tends to mess with your brain's oxygen supply and you start to say funny things

Data Graham
Dec 28, 2009

📈📊🍪😋



Happy birthday Putin, hope you like ... thousands of Russian corpses and smashed equipment 🎂

Icept
Jul 11, 2001
I thought he'd been shamed off twitter long ago.

Guess he's back for another go at it.

Data Graham
Dec 28, 2009

📈📊🍪😋



Seriously I wonder how many total clusterfucks and military disasters in history can be chalked up to some political stunt like "we must launch this rocket on the Nth anniversary of the country" or "we must deliver X city in time for so-and-so's birthday"


e: or "we must open the country back up by Easter, screw covid"

Data Graham fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Oct 20, 2023

Burns
May 10, 2008


Shorner's counterattack to relieve Berlin any day now!!

tango alpha delta
Sep 9, 2011

Ask me about my wealthy lifestyle and passive income! I love bragging about my wealth to my lessers! My opinions are more valid because I have more money than you! Stealing the fruits of the labor of the working class is okay, so long as you don't do it using crypto. More money = better than!
uhhh, the Russians know they can go home anytime? Right? Like go back over the border and stop murdering Ukrainians? has anyone told them that this is an option?

Jimlit
Jun 30, 2005



Data Graham posted:

Seriously I wonder how many total clusterfucks and military disasters in history can be chalked up to some political stunt like "we must launch this rocket on the Nth anniversary of the country" or "we must deliver X city in time for so-and-so's birthday"

The optics comrade!

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

Didn't this guy get proven wrong on a dozen different assaults and made a huge whiny taking-my-ball-and-going-home exit back in 2022 or was it somebody else

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Icept posted:

I thought he'd been shamed off twitter long ago.

Guess he's back for another go at it.

He gained a little courage back when Ukraine couldn't easily break through an enormous minefield that was basically the biggest ever made, while lacking air power. Though I'm of the opinion that his courage won't last him very long when the very last mobik waves end up being thrown at Avdiivka and still fail.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

NoiseAnnoys posted:

lol were they папироси?



i can still taste the unique flavor of dusty horse poo poo upon seeing this. what a terrible day to have memories

Winkle-Daddy
Mar 10, 2007

zone posted:

He gained a little courage back when Ukraine couldn't easily break through an enormous minefield that was basically the biggest ever made, while lacking air power. Though I'm of the opinion that his courage won't last him very long when the very last mobik waves end up being thrown at Avdiivka and still fail.

he blocked me and afaik I never interacted with him. very courageous.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

EorayMel posted:

Didn't this guy get proven wrong on a dozen different assaults and made a huge whiny taking-my-ball-and-going-home exit back in 2022 or was it somebody else

You've arrived at the wrong conclusion. It's an account worth following. I think he's completely in charge of the Russian war effort.

Strategic Tea
Sep 1, 2012

Data Graham posted:

Happy birthday Putin, hope you like ... thousands of Russian corpses and smashed equipment 🎂

Nyet, look at the shabby uniforms, the junk equipment! These are defeated Ukrainians boss!

They are facing west because they were running away.

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

When I want to relax, I read an essay by Engels. When I want something more serious, I read Corto Maltese.

Data Graham posted:

Happy birthday Putin, hope you like ... thousands of Russian corpses and smashed equipment 🎂

The Keystone Korps.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

So Copelord is back, as delusional as ever.
War, war never changes.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1715399392029549029#m
And other stories Russians cry themselves to sleep with every night.

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beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Fabulous Knight posted:

Okay, NATO stockpiles are being depleted. That sounds grim and honestly I did not see that coming. I guess this must be because Ukraine is still using old leftover stuff as of right now and starting/restarting ammunition production takes time, and can take as long as two years after the start of the conflict?

Or alternatively, "how the gently caress is this possible".

Europeans have enjoyed three decades of peace dividend since the fall of the Soviet Union. And America is a clusterfuck politically. Also, Putin probably considers this war a matter of life and death for himself. For Ukraine's allies the war is obviously an important issue, but maybe not quite that pressing. Hell, just yesterday there was a story that the US redirected thousands of artillery shells meant to go to Ukraine to Israel.

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