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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1715399392029549029#m
And other stories Russians cry themselves to sleep with every night.

it is insanely funny and also insanely depressing that there are a lot of people who will look at that, go :hmmyes: and believe it without further question.

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weg
Jun 6, 2006

Reassisted Retrogression

HonorableTB posted:

it is insanely funny and also insanely depressing that there are a lot of people who will look at that, go :hmmyes: and believe it without further question.

The twist is

code:
Since beginning of the war RU army have destroyed:
Leaves out the final bit of that statement

code:
 this many of their own equipment by sending it to Ukraine 
:lol:

Collapsing Farts
Jun 29, 2018

💀
Being the distinguished internet armchair general that I am, it is clear to me that whatever army is on the offensive is the army that is going to suffer.

Trying to push forward in a modern war where neither side has air superiority just seems like a hot mess. Guided rockets, artillery, drones and mines everywhere...

Whether it's russians or ukrainians, it seems like it's near impossible to make a good push forward without tons of casualties

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1715395692745674866?s=20

Not a military expert, but did the Russians try not losing so much equipment?

zone
Dec 6, 2016

the risks they took for banan were calculated, but man were they bad at math

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

EorayMel posted:

Didn't this guy get proven wrong on a dozen different assaults and made a huge whiny taking-my-ball-and-going-home exit back in 2022 or was it somebody else

This is literal "they've hit their preset kill limit" reasoning. He is a delusional moron of the highest caliber and nothing he says should be taken seriously. He brief hiatus from the internet was because people found the creepy pedo fanfiction he wrote.

Speaking of vatnik losers, remember Sarah Bils, aka Donbas Devushka, who turned out to be some nut from New Jersey and allegedly was the one who ratted out Gonzalo Lira? Someone did a writeup on her and oh boy, another real winner in Putin's troll corps:

https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1715306499126305225#m
https://nitter.unixfox.eu/P_Kallioniemi/status/1715306499126305225#m

In short:
  • Alcoholic/drug addict from New Jersey
  • Habitually neglected her kid to the point that her child had to resort to stealing food and eating it in secret
  • Had to miss or was sent home from deployments due to substance abuse
  • Sold her kid's toys for booze/drug money
  • Runs fake charity scams where all the money goes into her pockets

These are the people who orbit despots and populists who feed them promises of a "multi-polar world": disgraced losers who desperately want to believe that, in some hypothetical new order, they'll be the ones punching down instead of getting punched.

The_Franz fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Oct 20, 2023

ZogrimAteMyHamster
Dec 8, 2015

I'm just wondering if Armchair Copelord still has his Mao Zedong haircut lmao

Fabulous Knight
Nov 11, 2011

beer_war posted:

Europeans have enjoyed three decades of peace dividend since the fall of the Soviet Union. And America is a clusterfuck politically. Also, Putin probably considers this war a matter of life and death for himself. For Ukraine's allies the war is obviously an important issue, but maybe not quite that pressing. Hell, just yesterday there was a story that the US redirected thousands of artillery shells meant to go to Ukraine to Israel.

Sure, yeah. I guess the thing that most vexed me was that this war has been going on for 18 months and production will only be ramping up sometime in 2024. But I know very little about these things and maybe they just take a lot of time to get going.

tldr: Why not done?!

Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Oct 20, 2023

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

The_Franz posted:

In short:
  • Alcoholic/drug addict from New Jersey
  • Habitually neglected her kid to the point that her child had to resort to stealing food and eating it in secret
  • Had to miss or was sent home from deployments due to substance abuse
  • Sold her kid's toys for booze/drug money
  • Runs fake charity scams where all the money goes into her pockets

These are the people who orbit despots and populists who feed them promises of a "multi-polar world": disgraced losers who desperately want to believe that, in some hypothetical new order, they'll be the ones punching down instead of getting punched.

Man you'd have to be a total dumbass to rely on her for analysis. Just a complete rube.

On that note, search for DD_Geopolitics on these forums.

beer_war fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Oct 21, 2023

Deus Ex Macklemore
Jul 2, 2004


Zelensky's Zealots
crossposting from the iVFW thread, this was a video of russian vehicles getting wrecked trying again to take that very important pile of dirt they could jsut go around and the targeted ad was :discourse:

Computer viking
May 30, 2011
Now with less breakage.

Fabulous Knight posted:

Sure, yeah. I guess the thing that most vexed me was that this war has been going on for 18 months and production will only be ramping up sometime in 2024. But I know very little about these things and maybe they just take a lot of time to get going.

Some of it is probably that NATO never expected to fight a WW1 style grinding artillery war - it was either all out with the USSR and it'll be done in three days ± the end of the world as we know it, or smaller regional engagements where technological and air superiority allows complete domination. Sitting behind minefields and throwing tons of artillery grenades at each other for years on end was just not a plausible scenario.

It still isn't, in a way - if NATO was directly involved in this, the long term production rates of artillery ammunition would not matter for the outcome.

Computer viking fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Oct 20, 2023

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
war length estimation is like all other kinds of project estimation inasmuch as its subject to hofstadters law- takes longer than you think, even if you take into account hofstadters law. i see no serious reason why things couldnt take 10, 20 years.

reconquista took 700 years. hundred years war was well named. kurds have been fighting to get kurdistan for also about a hundred years. and so on

dennyk
Jan 2, 2005

Cheese-Buyer's Remorse

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1715399392029549029#m
And other stories Russians cry themselves to sleep with every night.

It sounds plausible to me. The practice of counting their own vehicle losses as "vehicles destroyed" is admittedly a little unorthodox, but hey, you gotta do what you gotta do to get those numbers up for Monke, right? :v:

Computer viking
May 30, 2011
Now with less breakage.

bob dobbs is dead posted:

war length estimation is like all other kinds of project estimation inasmuch as its subject to hofstadters law- takes longer than you think, even if you take into account hofstadters law. i see no serious reason why things couldnt take 10, 20 years.

reconquista took 700 years. hundred years war was well named. kurds have been fighting to get kurdistan for also about a hundred years. and so on

On the other hand, recent US invasions of places have been every bit as fast as they thought they would be. Holding the countries afterwards is of course something else, but I don't think it was the artillery ammunition that was the problem in Iraq or Afghanistan.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Flyinglemur posted:

crossposting from the iVFW thread, this was a video of russian vehicles getting wrecked trying again to take that very important pile of dirt they could jsut go around and the targeted ad was :discourse:



The ad for the mobile game at the bottom is loving hilarious in this context

Bug Squash
Mar 18, 2009

The_Franz posted:

This is literal "they've hit their preset kill limit" reasoning. He is a delusional moron of the highest caliber and nothing he says should be taken seriously. He brief hiatus from the internet was because people found the creepy pedo fanfiction he wrote.

Speaking of vatnik losers, remember Sarah Bils, aka Donbass Devushka, who turned out to be some nut from New Jersey and allegedly was the one who ratted out Gonzalo Lira? Someone did a writeup on her and oh boy, another real winner in Putin's troll corps:

https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1715306499126305225#m
https://nitter.unixfox.eu/P_Kallioniemi/status/1715306499126305225#m

In short:
  • Alcoholic/drug addict from New Jersey
  • Habitually neglected her kid to the point that her child had to resort to stealing food and eating it in secret
  • Had to miss or was sent home from deployments due to substance abuse
  • Sold her kid's toys for booze/drug money
  • Runs fake charity scams where all the money goes into her pockets

These are the people who orbit despots and populists who feed them promises of a "multi-polar world": disgraced losers who desperately want to believe that, in some hypothetical new order, they'll be the ones punching down instead of getting punched.

The "idiot" part of useful idiots has been exceptionally strong this war. I think I recall the Russians With Attitude account having a meltdown about the poor mental quality of their Western allies.

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!
the US might be a mess politically but i guarantee you that the problem isn't that they're incapable of kicking out the shells required. even in peacetime the US has been expanding ammo production capabilities aggressively. one of the larger ammo plants in the US is just north of Kansas City, and they embarked on a plan that would triple its size and employment and almost 5x its overall capacity starting in like 2016 or something like that. first phase of the expansion went live earlier this year.

Mr.Pibbleton
Feb 3, 2006

Aleuts rock, chummer.


Wasn't this guy some kind of pedophile?

RDM
Apr 6, 2009

I LOVE FINLAND AND ESPECIALLY FINLAND'S MILITARY ALLIANCES, GOOGLE FINLAND WORLD WAR 2 FOR MORE INFORMATION SLAVA UKRANI
Subscribe to my substack where I analyze satellite imagery of failed Ukrainian attacks and also tell you the top 5 items to steal from CVS when you need heroin money fast. Number 4 might surprise you.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

Mr.Pibbleton posted:

Wasn't this guy some kind of pedophile?

I don't recall anything about him being a legit pedophile, but he is a big anime weirdo.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

Ikasuhito posted:

I don't recall anything about him being a legit pedophile, but he is a big anime weirdo.

He wrote some weird anime military school fanfiction that had some skeevy stuff involving underage characters, but there's no evidence that he's an actual :pedo: like Ritter.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/joewestnacl/status/1715336309647028405


Pack it up westoids

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

"destroyed" """vehicles""

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Yeah dude just ignore the vatniks themselves talking about their heavy daily losses in that sector, like the guy who said more than 40 armored vehicles packed it in just today, I'm sure they appreciate your vote of confidence lmao

Icept
Jul 11, 2001

beer_war posted:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1715395692745674866?s=20

Not a military expert, but did the Russians try not losing so much equipment?

that loaf did nothing wrong

weg
Jun 6, 2006

Reassisted Retrogression

So Russia has been fighting over a town for nearly a decade and still hasn't secured it? Yeah I'm not sure that makes the point they'd like it to lmao

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

weg posted:

So Russia has been fighting over a town for nearly a decade and still hasn't secured it? Yeah I'm not sure that makes the point they'd like it to lmao

It's being defended by 12,000 NATO tanks and hundreds of thousands of Polish Knights Templar mercenaries (who are satanists). It takes time to grind through that but Russia is winning bigly every day.

DiomedesGodshill
Feb 21, 2009

Just Another Lurker posted:

Request a title change: Ukraine War: Avdiivka, a strange coke hill to die on.

:kiddo:

FTFY

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
The Winged Hussars are just out of frame, charging.

Tai
Mar 8, 2006

I wonder if the vehicles rolling over mines, getting murked by ATGM's or clusters of tanks getting artied are old videos too

ishikabibble
Jan 21, 2012

Fabulous Knight posted:

Sure, yeah. I guess the thing that most vexed me was that this war has been going on for 18 months and production will only be ramping up sometime in 2024. But I know very little about these things and maybe they just take a lot of time to get going.

tldr: Why not done?!

Production takes time to ramp up. Nothing sits idle in a factory - if they have to wind down production of X, they're going to tear down part of that line and repurpose the machines and space to make something else. If a machine isn't actively doing something then that represents potential profit lost.

And then you need to go on a hiring spree and train up a bunch of new employees, there's lots of contracting stuff within the government that needs to be fulfilled - nobody foresaw that we'd be in a state where we're seeing Actual Wartime Attrition levels of munitions being shot off.

Aaand, 'why not just go all in and expand the facility' - this is a very specific situation and nobody has any idea how long it's going to go on for. Rushing to build up a whole new line to make artillery shells or w/e means investing millions into a brand new asset, and if Russia or Ukraine suddenly surrender tomorrow that's going to be drat near company sinking, because there's no way to solicit enough contracts to ever pay it off.

Also they're still likely battling material shortages too. Anything with Titanium has been pretty heavily impacted, as two of the world's largest producers of it are literally Ukraine and Russia iirc. As well as a bunch of general alloying elements that go into the various different steel compositions...


And then also the cherry on top is this is all being effectively done for charity. There are very important political/resource/etc motivations for making sure Ukraine keeps their independence and Russia fucks off, but they aren't directly giving the US a dime for all the aid they're getting sent. That's a hard sell to politicians, especially also when half of them are corrupt shitbags on Moscow's dime and also are invested in cutting the war effort because Biden Bad etc.



tl;dr it's complicated

TEMPLE GRANDIN OS
Dec 10, 2003

...blyat
it's gonna be so uncool to pick russia in video games forever take that putin

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

HonorableTB posted:

Russian modern infantry would still be spearmen in this scenario

ive seen russian tanks get taken out by javelins but this is ridiculous!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROX9V4bKqKs

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

After a long day on the front, sitting down to some canned pig snout reminds me why we fight.

https://twitter.com/osint_69/status/1715470408210608449

DiomedesGodshill
Feb 21, 2009

Charlz Guybon posted:

If true, Russian ability to respond with attack helicopters to Ukranian armored movements has been gutted
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1715132980652310662

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

the popes toes posted:

After a long day on the front, sitting down to some canned pig snout reminds me why we fight.

https://twitter.com/osint_69/status/1715470408210608449

:catstare:

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
vladimir vladimirovich, my name is sergei. i am a mobik from blyatislava and our unit was sent into combat with only cans of pig snout. we are not deserters,

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
i mean was there not pig snout in the can labeled pig snout and not water or wood pulp or party confetti?

great patriotic war heroes won with less!!!

RFC
Nov 3, 2002

the popes toes posted:

After a long day on the front, sitting down to some canned pig snout reminds me why we fight.

https://twitter.com/osint_69/status/1715470408210608449

Steve1989MREInfo needs to get on this

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Bluemillion
Aug 18, 2008

I got your dispensers
right here

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