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While it's true that a rocket landing on a crowd of people would be an very tragic and unlucky event, it's also extremely unlikely that a rocket would misfire close to and just seconds before an unrelated Israeli strike on the hospital (which happened to be with something that produced a level of damage consistent with a Palestinian rocket, as opposed to Israel's many larger munitions). If that rocket had misfired 5 seconds earlier or later there would be no possible debate as to whether it was the cause of the hospital explosion.
Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 18:34
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I just don't get why Islamic Jihad fired a rocket towards the Mediterranean.
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Oct 21, 2023 18:40
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Irony Be My Shield posted:While it's true that a rocket landing on a crowd of people would be an very tragic and unlucky event, it's also extremely unlikely that a rocket would misfire close to and just seconds before an unrelated Israeli strike on the hospital (which happened to be with something that produces a level of damage consistent with a Palestinian rocket, as opposed to Israel's many larger munitions). If that rocket had misfired 5 seconds earlier or later there would be no possible debate as to whether it was the cause of the hospital explosion. The Channel 4 breakdown I posted breaks down how the rocket in the video is misleading and likely has nothing to do with the hospital explosion.
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Oct 21, 2023 18:42
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20 aid trucks were allowed into Gaza today https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/middleeast/rafah-border-crossing-gaza-israel-explained-intl/index.htmlNoise Complaint posted:The Channel 4 breakdown I posted breaks down how the rocket in the video is misleading and likely has nothing to do with the hospital explosion. Yeah, its extremely obvious at this point Israel did the attack, I don't understand how this is at all in dispute from so many people. A few months from now Israel will take responsibility (for a second time).
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Oct 21, 2023 18:43
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Bel Shazar posted:I just don't get why Islamic Jihad fired a rocket towards the Mediterranean. Clearly trying to YOLO the US carriers
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Oct 21, 2023 18:44
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What’s changed in tunnel warfare since Vietnam?
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Oct 21, 2023 18:46
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Bel Shazar posted:I just don't get why Islamic Jihad fired a rocket towards the Mediterranean. They might not have, to be honest. Qassams and "accuracy" are incompatible with each other. It's more likely that they fired it in a different direction but because the rocket was built in a spare room in a tunnel underground or something, it went wildly off course. The inaccuracy would not be surprising, but the odds of it landing in that exact spot when Israel had been already attacking that hospital and warned it to evacuate would be ridiculous.
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Oct 21, 2023 18:46
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After AP News removed, without explanation as far as I can tell, a part of their article about how US officials were told by their Israeli counterparts that they would kill innocent civilians in order to eradicate Hamas, I’m not going to completely trust their reporting on this conflict. https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1715175576250487263
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Oct 21, 2023 18:48
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Netyanahu's advisor sharing AI generated pictures of Hamas leaders living a life of 'luxury'. Wonder will they blame the artifacts on a filter like when the Israel embassy shared a photo with similar artifacts. Though in that case I believe it was actually innocent and caused by combining multiple photos together in a composite. https://x.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1715416552047059366?s=20
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Oct 21, 2023 18:49
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Marenghi posted:Netyanahu's advisor sharing AI generated pictures of Hamas leaders living a life of 'luxury'. Wonder will they blame the artifacts on a filter like when the Israel embassy shared a photo with similar artifacts. Though in that case I believe it was actually innocent and caused by combining multiple photos together in a composite. Not to hand it to Israel or anything but there was this tweet in 2014 that has the same photos, and muddies the AI generated waters. It might not be AI but that doesn't mean it's real either. Or they could have been real pics sent through AI or other filters more recently. Who knows, it's a dumb attempt by Naftali in any case because even in the most generous interpretation of that your evidence looks completely fake and unbelievable regardless of its veracity. It could be 100% verified fact that these guys were doing these things at that time and those are real photos but on the other hand, whatever they've done in the process removed several noses, melted together several fingers, and blurred away half a guy's head and therefore the whole thing is completely uncredible because we've been taught that these are indicative of AI generated fake images even if the reason was a drunk cameraman taking blurry shots or whatever.  HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 18:59
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The first three look like they could be at a family reunion at a Residence Inn.
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Oct 21, 2023 19:02
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It looks like they took the VHS quality garbage from the original article and ran them through AI upscaling and one of those programs that AI generates extra to the outside of the image.
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Oct 21, 2023 19:11
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This isnt the first time real pictures from pro-Israel sources have been intentionally upscaled badly. Prevalent theories I've heard are either that they're softening up their audience to accept actual AI-generated trash, spambots are more likely to interpret the upscales as new images to spam to sate the almighty algorithm, or to try to make it harder to reverse-image search their pictures. In any case, it doesn't really help Israel when the average person on twitter clicks a picture and goes "why is everyone melting?" I really must reiterate how crap the AP 'investigation' is. It's heavily reliant on authoritative comments than anything demonstrable. The fact that it's buoyed by an OSINT grifter & word-for-word reiterates Israel's stance doesn't help. Hopefully, with forensic groups and several other news organizations performing actual, respectable investigation, it doesn't pick up too much traction. Irony Be My Shield posted:While it's true that a rocket landing on a crowd of people would be an very tragic and unlucky event, it's also extremely unlikely that a rocket would misfire close to and just seconds before an unrelated Israeli strike on the hospital It likely wasn't unrelated; the rockets were probably a response to the air strikes (of which multiple were occurring in the same area). As for failure, Qassam rockets are designed to be as cheap as humanly possible to provide some baseline resistance, which also means they do fail pretty often. Notably, no other rocket failure has resulted in 471 dead Palestinians. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 19:13
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It's not the same as being able to unequivocally prove it, which is of course very important, but if you earnestly think this wasn't an IDF munition that in 2 years Israel will quietly admit was absolutely an IDF munition (pleasing a minority base), while everyone goes "it's so long ago let's not ruffle the tenuous peace by making a big deal out of it", you are truly a fool.
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Oct 21, 2023 19:27
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I just ran one of the old images through Waifu2x and got the exact same results, lol  edit: actually, mine is better quality
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Oct 21, 2023 19:31
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HonorableTB posted:Not to hand it to Israel or anything but there was this tweet in 2014 that has the same photos, and muddies the AI generated waters. It might not be AI but that doesn't mean it's real either. Or they could have been real pics sent through AI or other filters more recently. Who knows, it's a dumb attempt by Naftali in any case because even in the most generous interpretation of that your evidence looks completely fake and unbelievable regardless of its veracity. It could be 100% verified fact that these guys were doing these things at that time and those are real photos but on the other hand, whatever they've done in the process removed several noses, melted together several fingers, and blurred away half a guy's head and therefore the whole thing is completely uncredible because we've been taught that these are indicative of AI generated fake images even if the reason was a drunk cameraman taking blurry shots or whatever. I think it's a bit more than just "blurry picture". It's at least at the level of incredibly bad photoshop/image upscaling. https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1715625712625778940 https://imgur.com/1C1YROP
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Oct 21, 2023 19:34
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HonorableTB posted:rockets rockets rockets While I make no comment upon any of what happened in itself (being, if nothing else, more or less of the opinion that if everyone within 100 miles of Jerusalem got teleported into space it'd probably save the rest of us a lot of grief) the problem with this specific line of reasoning is very obvious: a rocket on a broadly ballistic trajectory is not undergoing some kind of Brownian motion but has some unavoidable physical limits on where it might go. If you take one rocket at, I don't know, the 1/4 way point of a ballistic arc X000ft up, it isn't equally probable that it might land in two hospital courtyards, one of which is directly under the flight path of the rocket and one of which is several miles off to the side, or in the opposite direction etc. That is, if you cut the motor at that point it might be expected to nose down but maintain its heading, if you have the motor detach from any airfoils then that might do something odd while the nose keeps on trucking for a bit etc. All of these things are constrained by where it is at the point that whatever it is occurs, ballistics, fuel, wind etc however, and there will obviously be places where it might be variously very likely and very unlikely to end up. Where any of this was happening in the specific (and that's what it boils down to) I have no idea. But, if you wish to rule out a rocket failure, the balance of probability has to be informed by the flight path of the rocket, and the key things to know there (on the basis that it must have functioned to some extent initially) would seem to be where specifically it was launched *from* and *to*, which I'm not aware of anyone even bringing up to this point except in the general sense of there being some rockets flying around at the time. Is the flight path directly overhead? Well, you're going to be within the cone of probability, so to speak, and it's hardly reasonable to dismiss the idea out of hand. 10 miles away, for something with a 20 mile range? Sure, do some handwaving and you're probably not likely to be wrong. Trying to judge this stuff by looking at YouTube videos in the dark with minimal frame of reference? Run away screaming from that, thank you very much. The same problem kinda comes with the 'well (thing that we think it was, or wasn't, I can't keep track) never killed 500 people before' - no doubt, but then hospitals don't generally have courtyards packed with people like sardines in a can. If the 99th percentile explosive device detonates on the outside of a concrete building, it stands to reason that they're not usually going to kill many people: that isn't to say that it isn't possible or even likely given the specific circumstance. The one thing I would say more or less confidently based on reading this thing over the last several days is that there is noone here thinking about any of these sorts of things in more than essentially video-game terms (ref f.e the numerous people who have confidently declared that they "know what a JDAM sounds like") and frankly you couldn't pay me enough money to trust any judgement declared here with any kind of fervor; it is, as it always is with I/P discussions, a collection of groups of people who mostly made up their minds half an hour before whatever they're arguing about happened ginning themselves up for the conclusion they already reached.
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Oct 21, 2023 20:05
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Pretty rad dad pad posted:While I make no comment upon any of what happened in itself (being, if nothing else, more or less of the opinion that if everyone within 100 miles of Jerusalem got teleported into space it'd probably save the rest of us a lot of grief) the problem with this specific line of reasoning is very obvious: a rocket on a broadly ballistic trajectory is not undergoing some kind of Brownian motion but has some unavoidable physical limits on where it might go. If you take one rocket at, I don't know, the 1/4 way point of a ballistic arc X000ft up, it isn't equally probable that it might land in two hospital courtyards, one of which is directly under the flight path of the rocket and one of which is several miles off to the side, or in the opposite direction etc. That is, if you cut the motor at that point it might be expected to nose down but maintain its heading, if you have the motor detach from any airfoils then that might do something odd while the nose keeps on trucking for a bit etc. All of these things are constrained by where it is at the point that whatever it is occurs, ballistics, fuel, wind etc however, and there will obviously be places where it might be variously very likely and very unlikely to end up. I was speaking about these things based on years of having seen how unguided rockets operate and what happens if you have, for example, one of the guidance fins far enough off spec that it changes the aerodynamic abilities of the rocket. Any instability of the stabilizing fins is going to change the ballistic trajectory of the rocket. If one of the fins is slightly heavier on one side, for example, it increases drag and causes the flight path to alter. If the burn rate of the fuel isn't consistent, the ballistic arc will alter. Lots of different things can happen to a rocket (especially a homemade one) that will cause these kinds of flight deviations. However, they would have to happen in a very specific way at a very specific time to do that and the odds are extremely against this These things are being constructed with whatever Hamas can get their hands on and it will produce wildly inaccurate rockets as a result. Regardless of that I still do not think it was Hamas or Islamic Jihad. You can find more information (from a source that isn't the forums, if that matters to you) from the experts at NASA: quote:During the flight of a model rocket small gusts of wind, or thrust instabilities can cause the rocket to "wobble", or change its attitude in flight. Like any object in flight, a model rocket rotates about its center of gravity cg, shown as a yellow dot on the figure. The rotation causes the axis of the rocket to be inclined at some angle a to the flight path. Whenever the rocket is inclined to the flight path, a lift force is generated by the rocket body and fins, while the aerodynamic drag remains fairly constant for small inclinations. Lift and drag both act through the center of pressure cp of the rocket, which is shown as the black and yellow dot in the figure. https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/rocket/rktstab.html The last bit about restoring force is relevant as well because Qassam rockets do not have the burn time and range needed for restoring forces to apply and attempt to reorient the rocket back to its original flight path HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 20:22
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While parts of the discussion are intellectually interesting and educational, I also don't think the cause of the hospital blast is all that important from a moral dimension. If it was an Israeli weapon, they bear a whole lot of moral culpability, because they have the fancy toys to not bomb a hospital. If it was a Palestinian misfire or interception, Israel still bears most of the (slightly reduced) moral culpability, because they're responsible for the conflict and Palestinian rocket accuracy and reliability ranges from "not great" to "it will probably land somewhere over that way".
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Oct 21, 2023 20:29
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Pretty rad dad pad posted:The one thing I would say more or less confidently based on reading this thing over the last several days is that there is noone here thinking about any of these sorts of things in more than essentially video-game terms (ref f.e the numerous people who have confidently declared that they "know what a JDAM sounds like") and frankly you couldn't pay me enough money to trust any judgement declared here with any kind of fervor; it is, as it always is with I/P discussions, a collection of groups of people who mostly made up their minds half an hour before whatever they're arguing about happened ginning themselves up for the conclusion they already reached. There's always going to be speculation in the moments after an attack. The good news is that several credible organizations such as Al-Jazeera English (UK-based branch of AJ staffed with ex-BBC employees who left when David Cameron started dismantling its credibility) and Channel 4 (State-Owned UK agency that is allowed to operate more independently than its BBC sibling), as well as preliminary research from Forensic Architecture (respected research agency based in the University of London) have performed their own investigations & research on the attack, and found that the rocket theory isn't credible for a number of reasons. Provided below: Al Jazeera: Investigations reveal discrepancies in Israel’s Gaza hospital attack claims https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1715437877604049094 https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1715422493274427414 All three organizations hold significantly more merit internationally than amateur rags such as OSINTechnical, OSINTDefender, and Associated Press. Anyways, chimed in to share this: https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1715806709950668802 Younis Tirawi is an independent field reporter operating within the West Bank, with source ties to Lions Den & Jenin militants. You can be skeptical of his account of events, but he should be fairly reliable as far as "What is Hamas saying". They are alleging that certain Israeli hostages need to be released for "Compelling humanitarian reasons" (Could be injury, or a lack of medication?), and Israel is refusing. May be interesting to keep an eye on Israeli media to see if this penetrates. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 20:32
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Google and Meta not tolerating even the most subdued and milquetoast of criticisms of Israel. https://fortune.com/2023/10/20/web-summit-google-meta-stripe-pull-out-israel-hamas-gaza/ quote:Google and Meta join growing list of companies quitting Europe’s biggest tech conference after the event’s leader vented about Israel
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Oct 21, 2023 20:34
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Inferior Third Season posted:Google and Meta not tolerating even the most subdued and milquetoast of criticisms of Israel. It's difficult to criticize the actions of an ethnostate government because part of the process of creating an ethnostate is the marriage of the nation-state polity to the ethnic group inside it to the degree that the existence of one implies the existence of the other and any threat to either is an existential threat to both, thus the immediate yelling about anti-semitism and inability of the general public to recognize the difference between being anti-Zionist and being anti-semitic along with the exceptionally powerful response of the Israeli government and people.
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Oct 21, 2023 20:42
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Fister Roboto posted:I've thought about this a lot. I've thought about it in my comfortable chair, in front of my powerful computer with working electricity and internet, in my comfortable home with clean water and working heat, in a country where I belong to the dominant class and have never in my life had to even think about being oppressed. And I've come to the conclusion that I can't even begin to understand what it's like to be a Palestinian in Gaza. I can't condone the initial attack, but I also can't rightfully condemn it, because I have absolutely no idea how I'd act in that situation. ... I don't think anyone here has the moral framework to give an accurate answer to that. I don't think it's wrong to condemn something that, had your life been different, you might do. Even if someone's had such a horrible and confusing life that in a certain context they can't discern right from wrong, that doesn't mean that the action doesn't have the serious consequences which make it right or wrong. It's evil to kill someone who poses no danger to you because you're mad at them, or to make a point. It happens all the time, and if anyone doesn't think they would never do it even if their lives had gone in just the wrong way, they're kidding themselves. That doesn't mean we can't say it's evil, it's very evil. Should I say that I can't condemn what the IDF is doing in Gaza because maybe I would bomb a hospital if I were raised In a culture of religious chauvinism and paranoid machismo, had been driven to frenzy by the attack, and had from a young age been taught that this was my duty to the nation? Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 20:50
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Irony Be My Shield posted:While it's true that a rocket landing on a crowd of people would be an very tragic and unlucky event, it's also extremely unlikely that a rocket would misfire close to and just seconds before an unrelated Israeli strike on the hospital (which happened to be with something that produced a level of damage consistent with a Palestinian rocket, as opposed to Israel's many larger munitions). If that rocket had misfired 5 seconds earlier or later there would be no possible debate as to whether it was the cause of the hospital explosion. There were four airstrikes in the area right before the hospital was hit. The "misfire" was the rocket disintegrating so it makes it even less likely it could cause the damage. Like I posted yesterday at least when they lied and blamed Islamic Jihad for killing those five kids with a rocket misfire the video that was being shopped around showed a rocket going off course sideways shortly after being launched. Groovelord Neato fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Oct 21, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 20:55
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The only time we didn't believe Israel is when they said they were going to bomb a hospital and then it got bombed. After multiple warning bombs.
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Oct 21, 2023 20:57
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 20:57
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I don't think it's wrong to condemn something that, had your life been different, you might do. Even if someone's had such a horrible and confusing life that in a certain context they can't discern right from wrong, that doesn't mean that the action doesn't have the serious consequences which make it right or wrong. Oppressors and the oppressed are not the same so yeah, it is weird to say that you can't condemn an oppressor because you have the capacity to oppress. This is a nonsense false equivalency compared to someone saying they cannot condemn the oppressed because they have not been in that situation themselves.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:11
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Inferior Third Season posted:Google and Meta not tolerating even the most subdued and milquetoast of criticisms of Israel. Twitter/X are doing something similar. Accounts that previously had 1000s of followers have had their counts drop down into the hundreds because they are "Pro Palestine". eg. https://twitter.com/TobiasTaylor/status/1715630764295872561 I tried just now and it took about 10 attempts for the follow to "stick".
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Oct 21, 2023 21:18
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HonorableTB posted:It's difficult to criticize the actions of an ethnostate government because part of the process of creating an ethnostate is the marriage of the nation-state polity to the ethnic group inside it to the degree that the existence of one implies the existence of the other and any threat to either is an existential threat to both, thus the immediate yelling about anti-semitism and inability of the general public to recognize the difference between being anti-Zionist and being anti-semitic along with the exceptionally powerful response of the Israeli government and people. Is Palestine also not an ethnostate government by these same standards? From my understanding, it's the same difficulty, which is why many left wing politicians like AOC in support of Palestinians have had to change their tone to "Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people" (however accurate or inaccaurate that may be). Can you explain the nuance of being anti-Zionist and for the millions of Jews settled in Israel, where they are supposed to go?
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Oct 21, 2023 21:27
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Stanley Pain posted:Twitter/X are doing something similar. Accounts that previously had 1000s of followers have had their counts drop down into the hundreds because they are "Pro Palestine". There was a lot of reporting about the US/EU coming down hard on them for pro-palestinian propaganda, threatening hundreds of millions/billions in fines, so I wouldn't blame them too much.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:32
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 21:33
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Something about the color layering in that inset photo made me first believe this was a sandwich ad.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:35
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At a glance it does 100% look like Hamas is endorsing a new Subway item.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:37
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i fly airplanes posted:Is Palestine also not an ethnostate government by these same standards? From my understanding, it's the same difficulty, which is why many left wing politicians like AOC in support of Palestinians have had to change their tone to "Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people" (however accurate or inaccaurate that may be). Palestine has no control over its borders so can't create an ethnostate in any meaningful way. It's why Israel can keep chipping away at the West Bank with settlements. Israel's actions have made the only outcome apart from a continuation or worsening of the status quo a one-state solution so Israeli Jews would be members of that new state along with the Palestinians.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:40
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I said come in! posted:20 aid trucks were allowed into Gaza today https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/middleeast/rafah-border-crossing-gaza-israel-explained-intl/index.html 20 aid trucks when WHO says a hundred is needed per a day. Israel didn't open up the UN built terminal that could handle bigger aid imports. Wonder why.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:42
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i fly airplanes posted:Can you explain the nuance of being anti-Zionist and for the millions of Jews settled in Israel, where they are supposed to go? How about wherever the millions of Palestinians are supposed to go when Israel tells them to leave Gaza.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:45
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i fly airplanes posted:Is Palestine also not an ethnostate government by these same standards? From my understanding, it's the same difficulty, which is why many left wing politicians like AOC in support of Palestinians have had to change their tone to "Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people" (however accurate or inaccaurate that may be). I don't think a couple of semi-autonomous enclaves in Israeli-occupied territory can really be called an "ethnostate", especially when all Israeli Jews within those enclaves have de facto extraterritoriality and are not subject to Palestinian jurisdiction. The PA barely even qualifies as a "government", given that it lacks several important elements of sovereignty. It's like saying that sure, maybe South Africa is an ethnostate, but the bantustans were ethnostates too so they're both equally bad. Israel lets anyone claiming Jewish descent immigrate there freely from anywhere in the world. Meanwhile, there are roughly six million Palestinian refugees in neighboring countries who are not allowed to return to their own homes and land because Israel forbids it. I don't think anyone asked those refugees whether they had anywhere to go before armed Zionist militias drove them out with violence and terror. Not that anyone (not even Hamas) is seriously talking about driving all Jews out of Israel anyway! Though there are plenty of political figures on the Israeli side who seriously want to drive all Palestinians out of the Palestinian territories.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:47
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Shageletic posted:20 aid trucks when WHO says a hundred is needed per a day. Israel didn't open up the UN built terminal that could handle bigger aid imports. Wonder why. Egypt’s border crossing opens to let a trickle of desperately needed aid into besieged Gaza According to this article from the Associated press, AP posted:The trucks were carrying 44,000 bottles of drinking water — enough for 22,000 people for a single day, it said. “This first, limited water will save lives, but the needs are immediate and immense,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. Aid for 2 million people being enough drinking water for a single day of 1% of the population is so woefully insufficient its hard to describe.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:48
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Main Paineframe posted:I don't think a couple of semi-autonomous enclaves in Israeli-occupied territory can really be called an "ethnostate", especially when all Israeli Jews within those enclaves have de facto extraterritoriality and are not subject to Palestinian jurisdiction. The PA barely even qualifies as a "government", given that it lacks several important elements of sovereignty. It's like saying that sure, maybe South Africa is an ethnostate, but the bantustans were ethnostates too so they're both equally bad. It's like calling the Warsaw ghetto an ethnostate because it was filled with Jewish people and "governed" by a Judenrat. Hebron is the third largest Palestinian city yet a sizable portion is controlled by the IDF, there are streets Palestinians cannot use, and they have to put up netting over some streets to catch the garbage Israeli settlers throw down onto them.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:53
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