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Bird in a Blender posted:Am I reading this right that inflation is at 1.9%? Isn't that pretty much the ideal rate for inflation according to the Fed, or is there a different inflation rate they look at? Seems like if inflation is down to 2% then the Fed is probably done raising interest rates. The Fed target is PCE, not core CPI. The PCE grew at 2.5% over the third quarter annualized, so a little bit above the long term target, but consistent with the Fed's "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations" regime. As Morrow pointed out, the Fed is on pause for now as far as hiking goes.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 15:44 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 08:12 |
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This is kind of obvious, but I feel like the student loan pauses were a huge factor in consumer spending, and now that they're over, I could see that being the thing that actually starts to hurt the economy again.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 15:56 |
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KillHour posted:This is kind of obvious, but I feel like the student loan pauses were a huge factor in consumer spending, and now that they're over, I could see that being the thing that actually starts to hurt the economy again. Volcker Shock 2.0 baby
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 16:00 |
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8% of New Jersey residents are either die-hard Cubans, working for the Egyptian government, not paying attention at all and won't admit it, or just big fans of anyone else into gold bars. https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1717535334802555048 quote:Support for Bob Menendez has cratered since his indictment, with approval ratings for the three-term United States Senator now at a jaw-dropping 8%-72%, according to a new Stockton University Poll released today.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 16:10 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:8% of New Jersey residents are either die-hard Cubans, working for the Egyptian government, not paying attention at all and won't admit it, or just big fans of anyone else into gold bars. Seems low for NJ tbh. I guess the gold bar community leans republican
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 16:36 |
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yeah you'd think 'a gold bar under every mattress' would play well in new jersey
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 16:38 |
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mannerup fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Nov 5, 2023 |
# ? Oct 26, 2023 16:41 |
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It’s only corruption if it’s from NJ, everywhere else it’s just a sparkling bribe.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 16:57 |
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Main Paineframe posted:In order to win Democrats' votes, he promised them absolutely nothing. He didn't even ask for their votes. I guess the way I’ve been seeing it is they could have just abstained, it wasn’t just for/against McCarthy. Voting against created the opportunity the far right wanted. It seems like the Democrats wanted the chaos in the GOP but the GOP has no shame and it won’t make any difference since their voters won’t care. But again, I’m happy most of you don’t see it that way, it makes me slightly more optimistic
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:07 |
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Well yeah, it's generally considered good for you when your opponents look like disorganized ineffectual chumps. The correct counterplay to the minority voting as a unified bloc is to unify the majority to outvote them and the dems literally can't get enough of the GOP demonstrating repeatedly that they are unable to do this
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:10 |
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mccarthy winning is also not a better outcome for the dems so why would they do anything at all to help him. hell even if he did promise them, like, anything for votes it would mean exactly as much as his other promises for votes in recent memory, which were less than worthless
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:22 |
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Even if Johnson is functionally as competent as McCarthy, which is unlikely given he has no experience, this whole fracas has stirred up a lot of bad blood within the GOP and emasculated McCarthy, Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer, none of whom are angels.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:26 |
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Anyone that thinks dems should have bailed McCarthy out shares in McCarthy’s humiliation fetish. Dems bailed him out of his government shutdown problem and the next day he was blaming them for it. If Jeffries bailed McCarthy out I bet he’d have thanked dems by blaming them for Gaetz’s motion to vacate.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:26 |
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At the end of the day, I honestly can't see how what the Dems did wasn't the best play for them. They weren't the ones that put a suicide pill into the house rules, they weren't the ones that enacted the poison pill, they took their one chance at throwing the Republicans into disarray, and in the aftermath, even CNN was pushing back against the Republican's talking point about everything being the Dem's fault (seriously, if you get a chance, look up the clip where the Republican keeps trying to blame the Democrats and the anchor just keeps asking "But who has the majority in the House?"). Sure, we didn't get a bipartisan coalition with Speaker Jeffries, but we got a solid public display that the Republicans are a clown show at this point, little more than a laughing stock.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:30 |
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Yiggy posted:If They were already doing this so what was the point even? Jeffries actually keeping his caucus in line when the Republicans spit in their faces after Gaetz's dipshittery is probably the biggest win for anyone out of this mess.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:31 |
This has been a total embarrassment for the Republicans and the best part is it’s not over. It may have just really gotten started.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:31 |
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They are hosed one way or the other next month. Either they shut down the gov or they go through this again when New Boy has to deal with the Demon Rats
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:39 |
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The new wet-behind-the-ears monster giving the responsibilities of budgeting to the house comittee chairs creates an opportunity for the opposition wonks on a given committee to release specific qualms on budgets and tie them to specific names and faces, rather than the ineffable "Washington swamp process" that the Speaker somehow has no control over. Those committee chairs are attention-is-power assholes who won't turn down the fight, but there will be more opportunity for these dingbats to go mask-off in mistake.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:40 |
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Jesus III posted:They are hosed one way or the other next month. Either they shut down the gov or they go through this again when New Boy has to deal with the Demon Rats There was a point Tuesday during Emmer’s saga where some of the house republicans were complaining how inconsistent the republicans were acting. True to form, last night they were telling reporters that just this once Johnson can pass a single continuing resolution (as a treat) and that next time they’ll totally get all twelve committee budgets passed. So they’re probably kicking the can to spring and there will be no sturm und drang when Johnson passes a clean CR here in a week or two. They’ll probably even put out a presser saying how they had to pass a CR because the dems wasted three weeks choosing a new speaker. Yiggy fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Oct 26, 2023 |
# ? Oct 26, 2023 17:44 |
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i am a moron posted:This has been a total embarrassment for the Republicans and the best part is it’s not over. It may have just really gotten started. Jesus III posted:They are hosed one way or the other next month. Either they shut down the gov or they go through this again when New Boy has to deal with the Demon Rats These combined with the single member can institute a motion to vacate still being very much in play means this dance isn't ending any time soon. Especially since Gaetz and his pack of gibbering lunatics have been quite open that not only that they don't care if their antics burn everything down, they kinda hope that they do.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:05 |
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yeah there's a dude with literally zero relevant experience in one of the most experience dependent jobs in all of government. idk what even the best case scenario looks like
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:17 |
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A federal judge in Georgia (appointed by Obama in 2011) ruled that Georgia's congressional maps are unconstitutionally racially biased at the state and federal level and ordered a redraw of both sets of maps. He also says that Georgia will need to convene a special session of the legislature and send a new map to him before December because he will not allow the current maps to go forward for the 2024 election. Georgia's legislature is part-time and is in recess until next year. It's not known what impact it will have at the state level, but it will likely make at least one more black majority district in Georgia (and likely a Democratic seat) by reversing the new gerrymander the Republican legislature approved. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1717586601285394649 quote:ATLANTA (AP) — A federal judge ruled Thursday that some of Georgia’s congressional, state Senate and state House districts were drawn in a racially discriminatory manner, ordering the state to draw an additional Black-majority congressional district.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:20 |
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Id forgotten that freebie CR. Still, let's see it pass.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:22 |
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Republican moderates from New York say they have a deal with the new Speaker to ensure that flood insurance changes, disaster relief funding for floods, additional money for healthcare for 9/11 first responders, and a re-instatement of the SALT deduction are included in any budget passed by the House. We'll see if they follow through with it, but it looks like the moderates did at least get something. It was just mostly non-controversial things that McCarthy was refusing to commit to because some of the Freedom caucus hated them. https://twitter.com/josephzeballos/status/1717218881197023626
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:26 |
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Blake Masters is dropping out of a second attempt at the Senate in Arizona and instead announcing he is running for a seat in the House in Arizona's 8th congressional district. The current incumbent is retiring and it is an R+10 district. This likely clears the way for Kari Lake in the GOP Senate primary. https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1717586000191390159
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:31 |
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Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:32 |
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mutata posted:Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah. It's not just propped up, the feds basically are the flood insurance market. Insurance companies take calls, prepare paperwork, keep a small commission, and send the bill to the feds. They aren't willing to cover that poo poo.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:37 |
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mutata posted:Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah. Why not both?
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:38 |
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mutata posted:Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah. To be fair, this is New York city and it was a freak flood. That makes sense for Florida, but you can't really tell people to let Manhattan and Brooklyn return to nature. Also: The new Speaker is planning to support the efforts of some House Republicans who are planning to let PEPFAR funding expire - at least temporarily - over concerns that the money could indirectly help medical centers that advise people where to go to get abortions stay in business and that providing AIDs preventative medicine could encourage risky sexual behavior. They are also concerned that the White House has included access to family planning as "human rights" under the plan. Additionally, they believe the legal wording is too vague and might include protecting transgender identity as a "human right" in the document. The House Republicans want the definition of "human rights" to be changed to be more specific and apply only to specific rights listed. The human rights definition has not changed since 2018, but House Republicans are concerned that the Biden administration will use the vague wording to indirectly support abortion, transgender, and gay rights groups who provide medicine to people with HIV. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1717559562763464928 quote:Republicans have delayed more than $1 billion in funding for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, better known as PEPFAR, the latest complication facing a lifesaving HIV program that has been ensnared in a broader political fight around abortion. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Oct 26, 2023 |
# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:42 |
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yeah there's a dude with literally zero relevant experience in one of the most experience dependent jobs in all of government. idk what even the best case scenario looks like Best case is shadow speaker Scalise Emmer and Stefanik. Speakers without formal Leadership experience like Hastert and Ryan ended up relying on the majority Leaders and whips a lot and they were in congress for much longer and more high-profile than Johnson. Congress has extremely elaborate and arcane rules and understanding them is actually extremely important to doing what you want. Worst case ( for republicans) is Johnson ignores the rest of leadership because he’s a true believer with god on his side and he keeps getting his agenda rolled, frustrated and thrown out for arcane parliamentary reasons
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 18:43 |
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He is ideologically pure, managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through, and is a loyal Trump sycophant. That's all that matters these days to the Republican party, the rest is just details. So what if he's ineffective.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 19:30 |
He was competent enough to manage to get the job when nobody else was. He will probably continue to be more competent than all the chucklefucks he beat. Probably also will continue to be a right wing nut job which contains its own set of limitations.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 19:34 |
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Cimber posted:managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through Managed to reduce the embarrassment, for now
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 19:38 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:He was competent enough to manage to get the job when nobody else was. He will probably continue to be more competent than all the chucklefucks he beat. The Republicans haven't had a competent speaker since John Boehner, you're not exactly clearing a high bar with Mike Johnson.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 19:40 |
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Competent in 2023 means "don't light the country on fire" or art least "only light the country on fire a little", and we really don't know if he's cleared that bar yet
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 19:51 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:He was competent enough to manage to get the job when nobody else was. He will probably continue to be more competent than all the chucklefucks he beat. Getting elected and achieving things once elected are very different skill sets and motivations
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 19:58 |
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Cimber posted:He is ideologically pure, managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through, and is a loyal Trump sycophant. That's all that matters these days to the Republican party, the rest is just details. So what if he's ineffective. Yeah agreed. The purpose of Republicans in government is to kill it off - damaging the nation is sort of the point.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 20:06 |
Angry_Ed posted:The Republicans haven't had a competent speaker since John Boehner, you're not exactly clearing a high bar with Mike Johnson. Oh absolutely. But nevertheless Managing to step over the curb rather than tripping and eating it is a marked increase in competence for these people.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 20:07 |
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Cimber posted:He is ideologically pure, managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through, and is a loyal Trump sycophant. That's all that matters these days to the Republican party, the rest is just details. So what if he's ineffective. I don't think their problem was just finding a speaker candidate. The Gaetz crew wants to do things that Republicans can't do when all they control is the house. Mike Johnson will become the establishment uniparty swamp when he won't hold a vote on An Act to Reduce the Age of Consent for Republican Politicians, which he won't because it would fail and a bunch of representatives would lose reelection. (to be fair, Republicans might lose the house in 2024 before that happens)
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 20:13 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 08:12 |
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More info about the mass shooter in Maine: - The shooter is still at large. - His family reportedly contacted the army reserves and were concerned he was having "an acute mental crisis" a few weeks ago. - His army unit was also the one that sent him to get mental health treatment for two weeks this past summer. It's not clear what the results of the treatment were or what happened afterwards. - He purchased the gun used in the shooting legally this year. - His family did not attempt to restrict his access to firearms because they never believed he would actually hurt anyone. - Law enforcement was not able to legally restrict his access to firearms. - He had no diagnosed mental health issues and his family reports he never had any mental health issues until about 9 months ago. - The shooter received hearing aids earlier this year due to hearing damage from being around gun fire as a firearm instructor and claimed that the hearing aids caused him to hear voices who were saying horrible things. He shortly became convinced that everyone was against him and was trying to hurt him. - The shooter has no apparent connection to the restaurant or bowling alley where most of the victims were. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1717617329519858048 quote:The family of the Army reservist accused of fatally shooting more than a dozen people in Lewiston, Maine, alerted police and military officials that he was experiencing an “acute” mental health episode before the Wednesday night massacre, the suspect’s sister-in-law said.
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# ? Oct 26, 2023 20:18 |