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plogo
Jan 20, 2009

Bird in a Blender posted:

Am I reading this right that inflation is at 1.9%? Isn't that pretty much the ideal rate for inflation according to the Fed, or is there a different inflation rate they look at? Seems like if inflation is down to 2% then the Fed is probably done raising interest rates.

The Fed target is PCE, not core CPI. The PCE grew at 2.5% over the third quarter annualized, so a little bit above the long term target, but consistent with the Fed's "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations" regime. As Morrow pointed out, the Fed is on pause for now as far as hiking goes.

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KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


This is kind of obvious, but I feel like the student loan pauses were a huge factor in consumer spending, and now that they're over, I could see that being the thing that actually starts to hurt the economy again.

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

KillHour posted:

This is kind of obvious, but I feel like the student loan pauses were a huge factor in consumer spending, and now that they're over, I could see that being the thing that actually starts to hurt the economy again.

Volcker Shock 2.0 baby

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
8% of New Jersey residents are either die-hard Cubans, working for the Egyptian government, not paying attention at all and won't admit it, or just big fans of anyone else into gold bars.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1717535334802555048

quote:

Support for Bob Menendez has cratered since his indictment, with approval ratings for the three-term United States Senator now at a jaw-dropping 8%-72%, according to a new Stockton University Poll released today.

More than seven in ten New Jerseyans (71%) think Menendez should resign from the U.S. Senate after he was indicted on bribery and conspiracy charges, and just 8% said he should remain in office; 80% of state residents are aware of the criminal charges filed against the senior senator from New Jersey.

Menendez’s approvals are one point better than Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who was at 7% following his indictment for trying to sell Barack Obama’s U.S. Senate seat in 2008. But less Illinois voters (70%) wanted him to resign before his trial than New Jerseyans.

Today’s poll is good news for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose approvals had plummeted to 15% toward the end of his second term. Christie was almost twice as popular as Menendez is now.

A May 1981 Rutgers-Eagleton poll showed that 69% of New Jersey voters wanted U.S. Senator Harrison Williams to resign following his conviction in the Abscam scandal, while 20% said he should remain in office during his appeal.

The modern record for the lowest job approvals came out of Ohio in 2005, after Gov. Bob Taft’s criminal conviction left him at 6.5% in a Zogby poll; other polls had him in the 18% range.

Menendez has not said if he will drop his bid for re-election, although most believe he has no choice. He already faces Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) in the Democratic primary, and First Lady Tammy Murphy is expected to also enter the race. Other potential candidates include Reps. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-Long Branch) and Donald Norcross (D-Camden), and former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes).

Kim announced his candidacy on September 23, one day after the Justice Department unsealed its indictment against Menendez.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

8% of New Jersey residents are either die-hard Cubans, working for the Egyptian government, not paying attention at all and won't admit it, or just big fans of anyone else into gold bars.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1717535334802555048

Seems low for NJ tbh. I guess the gold bar community leans republican

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
yeah you'd think 'a gold bar under every mattress' would play well in new jersey

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Nov 5, 2023

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



It’s only corruption if it’s from NJ, everywhere else it’s just a sparkling bribe.

Snowy
Oct 6, 2010

A man whose blood
Is very snow-broth;
One who never feels
The wanton stings and
Motions of the sense



Main Paineframe posted:

In order to win Democrats' votes, he promised them absolutely nothing. He didn't even ask for their votes.

When even the Republicans expected concessions in return for their votes, it would have been ridiculous for Dems to vote for him for free.

I guess the way I’ve been seeing it is they could have just abstained, it wasn’t just for/against McCarthy. Voting against created the opportunity the far right wanted. It seems like the Democrats wanted the chaos in the GOP but the GOP has no shame and it won’t make any difference since their voters won’t care.

But again, I’m happy most of you don’t see it that way, it makes me slightly more optimistic

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Well yeah, it's generally considered good for you when your opponents look like disorganized ineffectual chumps. The correct counterplay to the minority voting as a unified bloc is to unify the majority to outvote them and the dems literally can't get enough of the GOP demonstrating repeatedly that they are unable to do this

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
mccarthy winning is also not a better outcome for the dems so why would they do anything at all to help him. hell even if he did promise them, like, anything for votes it would mean exactly as much as his other promises for votes in recent memory, which were less than worthless

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
Even if Johnson is functionally as competent as McCarthy, which is unlikely given he has no experience, this whole fracas has stirred up a lot of bad blood within the GOP and emasculated McCarthy, Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer, none of whom are angels.

Yiggy
Sep 12, 2004

"Imagination is not enough. You have to have knowledge too, and an experience of the oddity of life."
Anyone that thinks dems should have bailed McCarthy out shares in McCarthy’s humiliation fetish. Dems bailed him out of his government shutdown problem and the next day he was blaming them for it. If
Jeffries bailed McCarthy out I bet he’d have thanked dems by blaming them for Gaetz’s motion to vacate.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



At the end of the day, I honestly can't see how what the Dems did wasn't the best play for them. They weren't the ones that put a suicide pill into the house rules, they weren't the ones that enacted the poison pill, they took their one chance at throwing the Republicans into disarray, and in the aftermath, even CNN was pushing back against the Republican's talking point about everything being the Dem's fault (seriously, if you get a chance, look up the clip where the Republican keeps trying to blame the Democrats and the anchor just keeps asking "But who has the majority in the House?"). Sure, we didn't get a bipartisan coalition with Speaker Jeffries, but we got a solid public display that the Republicans are a clown show at this point, little more than a laughing stock.

Robviously
Aug 21, 2010

Genius. Billionaire. Playboy. Philanthropist.

Yiggy posted:

If
Jeffries bailed McCarthy out I bet he’d have thanked dems by blaming them for Gaetz’s motion to vacate.

They were already doing this so what was the point even? Jeffries actually keeping his caucus in line when the Republicans spit in their faces after Gaetz's dipshittery is probably the biggest win for anyone out of this mess.

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"
This has been a total embarrassment for the Republicans and the best part is it’s not over. It may have just really gotten started.

Jesus III
May 23, 2007
They are hosed one way or the other next month. Either they shut down the gov or they go through this again when New Boy has to deal with the Demon Rats

Gerund
Sep 12, 2007

He push a man


The new wet-behind-the-ears monster giving the responsibilities of budgeting to the house comittee chairs creates an opportunity for the opposition wonks on a given committee to release specific qualms on budgets and tie them to specific names and faces, rather than the ineffable "Washington swamp process" that the Speaker somehow has no control over. Those committee chairs are attention-is-power assholes who won't turn down the fight, but there will be more opportunity for these dingbats to go mask-off in mistake.

Yiggy
Sep 12, 2004

"Imagination is not enough. You have to have knowledge too, and an experience of the oddity of life."

Jesus III posted:

They are hosed one way or the other next month. Either they shut down the gov or they go through this again when New Boy has to deal with the Demon Rats

There was a point Tuesday during Emmer’s saga where some of the house republicans were complaining how inconsistent the republicans were acting. True to form, last night they were telling reporters that just this once Johnson can pass a single continuing resolution (as a treat) and that next time they’ll totally get all twelve committee budgets passed. So they’re probably kicking the can to spring and there will be no sturm und drang when Johnson passes a clean CR here in a week or two. They’ll probably even put out a presser saying how they had to pass a CR because the dems wasted three weeks choosing a new speaker.

Yiggy fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Oct 26, 2023

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

i am a moron posted:

This has been a total embarrassment for the Republicans and the best part is it’s not over. It may have just really gotten started.

Jesus III posted:

They are hosed one way or the other next month. Either they shut down the gov or they go through this again when New Boy has to deal with the Demon Rats

These combined with the single member can institute a motion to vacate still being very much in play means this dance isn't ending any time soon. Especially since Gaetz and his pack of gibbering lunatics have been quite open that not only that they don't care if their antics burn everything down, they kinda hope that they do.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
yeah there's a dude with literally zero relevant experience in one of the most experience dependent jobs in all of government. idk what even the best case scenario looks like

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
A federal judge in Georgia (appointed by Obama in 2011) ruled that Georgia's congressional maps are unconstitutionally racially biased at the state and federal level and ordered a redraw of both sets of maps. He also says that Georgia will need to convene a special session of the legislature and send a new map to him before December because he will not allow the current maps to go forward for the 2024 election. Georgia's legislature is part-time and is in recess until next year.

It's not known what impact it will have at the state level, but it will likely make at least one more black majority district in Georgia (and likely a Democratic seat) by reversing the new gerrymander the Republican legislature approved.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1717586601285394649

quote:

ATLANTA (AP) — A federal judge ruled Thursday that some of Georgia’s congressional, state Senate and state House districts were drawn in a racially discriminatory manner, ordering the state to draw an additional Black-majority congressional district.

U.S. District Judge Steve Jones, in a 516-page order, also ordered the state to draw two new Black-majority districts in Georgia’s 56-member state Senate and five new Black-majority districts in its 180-member state House.

Jones ordered Georgia’s Republican majority General Assembly and governor to take action before Dec. 8, saying he wouldn’t permit 2024 elections to go forward under the current maps. That would require a special session, as lawmakers aren’t scheduled to meet again until January.

Jones’ ruling follows a September trial in which the plaintiffs argued that Black voters are still fighting opposition from white voters and need federal help to get a fair shot, while the state argued court intervention on behalf of Black voters wasn’t needed.

The move could shift one of Georgia’s 14 congressional seats from Republican to Democratic control. GOP lawmakers redrew the congressional map from an 8-6 Republican majority to a 9-5 Republican majority in 2021.

The Georgia case is part of a wave of litigation after the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year stood behind its interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, rejecting a challenge to the law by Alabama.

Courts in Alabama and Florida ruled recently that Republican-led legislatures had unfairly diluted the voting power of Black residents. Legal challenges to congressional districts are also ongoing in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

Orders to draw new legislative districts could narrow Republican majorities in the state House and Senate. But on their own, those changes are unlikely to lead to a Democratic takeover.

Jones wrote that he conducted a “thorough and sifting review” of the evidence in the case before concluding that Georgia violated the Voting Rights Act in enacting the current congressional and legislative maps.

He wrote that he “commends Georgia for the great strides that it has made to increase the political opportunities of Black voters in the 58 years” since that law was passed in 1965. But despite those gains, he determined that “in certain areas of the State, the political process is not equally open to Black voters.”

But Jones noted that despite the fact that all of the state’s population growth over the last decade was attributable to the minority population, the number of congressional and legislative districts with a Black majority remained the same.

That echoes a key contention of the plaintiffs, who argued repeatedly that the state added nearly 500,000 Black residents between 2010 and 2020 but drew no new Black-majority state Senate districts and only two additional Black-majority state House districts. They also said Georgia should have another Black majority congressional district.

Jesus III
May 23, 2007
Id forgotten that freebie CR. Still, let's see it pass.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Republican moderates from New York say they have a deal with the new Speaker to ensure that flood insurance changes, disaster relief funding for floods, additional money for healthcare for 9/11 first responders, and a re-instatement of the SALT deduction are included in any budget passed by the House.

We'll see if they follow through with it, but it looks like the moderates did at least get something. It was just mostly non-controversial things that McCarthy was refusing to commit to because some of the Freedom caucus hated them.

https://twitter.com/josephzeballos/status/1717218881197023626

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Blake Masters is dropping out of a second attempt at the Senate in Arizona and instead announcing he is running for a seat in the House in Arizona's 8th congressional district.

The current incumbent is retiring and it is an R+10 district.

This likely clears the way for Kari Lake in the GOP Senate primary.

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1717586000191390159

mutata
Mar 1, 2003

Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

mutata posted:

Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah.

It's not just propped up, the feds basically are the flood insurance market. Insurance companies take calls, prepare paperwork, keep a small commission, and send the bill to the feds. They aren't willing to cover that poo poo.

Devor
Nov 30, 2004
Lurking more.

mutata posted:

Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah.

Why not both?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

mutata posted:

Prop up that flood insurance market instead of buying people out and rebuilding in non-flood prone areas, awwww yeeeeah.

To be fair, this is New York city and it was a freak flood. That makes sense for Florida, but you can't really tell people to let Manhattan and Brooklyn return to nature.


Also:

The new Speaker is planning to support the efforts of some House Republicans who are planning to let PEPFAR funding expire - at least temporarily - over concerns that the money could indirectly help medical centers that advise people where to go to get abortions stay in business and that providing AIDs preventative medicine could encourage risky sexual behavior.

They are also concerned that the White House has included access to family planning as "human rights" under the plan. Additionally, they believe the legal wording is too vague and might include protecting transgender identity as a "human right" in the document. The House Republicans want the definition of "human rights" to be changed to be more specific and apply only to specific rights listed. The human rights definition has not changed since 2018, but House Republicans are concerned that the Biden administration will use the vague wording to indirectly support abortion, transgender, and gay rights groups who provide medicine to people with HIV.

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1717559562763464928

quote:

Republicans have delayed more than $1 billion in funding for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, better known as PEPFAR, the latest complication facing a lifesaving HIV program that has been ensnared in a broader political fight around abortion.

Created by President George W. Bush in 2003, PEPFAR has been credited with saving more than 25 million lives around the world. The nearly $7 billion annual initiative, which is managed by the State Department, has distributed millions of courses of medicine to treat HIV, funded testing and prevention services, and supported an array of other interventions. Dozens of foreign governments rely on PEPFAR as a key partner.

The program has traditionally enjoyed bipartisan support in Congress, which has reauthorized it every five years. But lawmakers this fall failed to reauthorize PEPFAR by a Sept. 30 deadline amid claims from conservative advocacy groups that the program is inadvertently funding abortions overseas — allegations that Biden officials, PEPFAR staff and public health leaders say are unfounded and threaten the program’s mission.

PEPFAR can continue to operate without congressional authorization, with much of its current funding intact. But Republicans have been placing holds on notifications that the State Department is required to send to Congress before PEPFAR spends any additional money, according to four people with knowledge of the funding delays, three of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private negotiations.

The GOP-led House Foreign Affairs Committee in August began objecting to language in PEPFAR’s country and regional operational plan, which offers guidance to partners around the globe about how to administer the aid program, according to the people with knowledge of the dispute.

The Republicans’ funding delays and objections, which have not been previously reported, center on PEPFAR’s use of terms relating to abortion, transgender people, sex workers and other areas, with the committee repeatedly demanding rewrites from the State Department. The negotiations have delayed the State Department from releasing more than $1 billion in funding for PEPFAR — funding that the program is planning to use to buy medicines, pay for staff and support other essential PEPFAR functions, several of the people said. PEPFAR officials have pushed back on some of the requested changes, including an attempt by House Republicans to change how terms such as “human rights” appear in the document.

Keifer Buckingham, advocacy director for the Open Society Foundations and a former Democratic congressional aide who worked on PEPFAR’s last reauthorization in 2018, said that prior PEPFAR documents used similar language and addressed the same issues.

“None of that phrasing is new … and it’s not like policy has dramatically changed,” Buckingham said, adding that House Republicans’ complaints about PEPFAR language are “ideological” and parallel their domestic political priorities around abortion and transgender issues.

The State Department confirmed that the House Foreign Affairs Committee has delayed approving the notifications that are required for allocating funds to PEPFAR.

“The delays in approval are straining PEPFAR country operations and threatening PEPFAR’s ability to continue implementation,” the State Department said in a statement. “If the [notifications] are not approved very soon, PEPFAR’s lifesaving work and gains will be threatened.” The department did not specify the amount of funding at stake.

Lawmakers have placed holds on PEPFAR funding in prior years in hopes of securing changes or getting answers about the program. But experts noted that the climate around the program has shifted in the wake of last year’s Supreme Court ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which effectively overturned the national right to abortion.

“If the current [funding] delay is based on these larger issues that have also stymied reauthorization, it would be a potentially serious situation,” said Jennifer Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the health policy nonprofit KFF.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee referred questions to the State Department.

Republicans’ hold on PEPFAR funding comes as lawmakers continue to debate whether to reauthorize the program for one year, five years or not at all. In the wake of the Dobbs ruling, Republicans have alleged the Biden administration is using PEPFAR and other programs to support abortion access, a claim that public health experts roundly deny.

“PEPFAR’s never been an abortion program,” John Nkengasong, the program’s director, said in remarks Monday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington. “It is not and will never be because there’s a law, the 1973 Helms amendment,” which restricts U.S. foreign assistance programs from funding abortion abroad, he added.

Public health experts have clamored for lawmakers to swiftly reauthorize PEPFAR for five years through what is known as a “clean reauthorization” — effectively rolling over the current structure. Current and former PEPFAR officials said that a five-year reauthorization would protect the program from political pressures and help global partners plan their strategies.

Asking Congress to vote every year to reauthorize PEPFAR “is basically asking for the appropriations over time to dwindle down and [in] an irrevocable way,” Mark Dybul, a former head of the program, said at the CSIS event.

The Biden administration has also warned that Congress’s delay to reauthorize the program is “damaging the United States’ image globally, particularly in Africa,” and threatening plans to acquire supplies, roll out innovations and take other steps that require certainty about PEPFAR’s long-term viability.

But some Republicans want to reauthorize the program for just one year — arguing that it would allow a future GOP president to make changes to it. Conservative advocacy groups also have warned lawmakers that a vote to reauthorize PEPFAR in its current form will be viewed as a vote to support abortion abroad.

House Republicans last month advanced a measure that would extend PEPFAR funding for one year while reinstating a Trump-era policy, Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance, that explicitly bars global assistance funds from being used for abortion.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that he had “high hopes” that lawmakers could reach a compromise to reauthorize PEPFAR.

“Time is running out and it’s critical to find a path forward and get PEPFAR reauthorized. I know all parties involved in this discussion care about PEPFAR’s success,” McCaul said in a statement. “But that means they also all need to be willing to come to the negotiating table — and everyone needs to be prepared to give a little.”

Having failed to sway holdout Republicans by focusing on PEPFAR’s public health accomplishments, advocates are increasingly touting the program’s national security implications. The George W. Bush Institute sent a letter to congressional leaders Wednesday, signed by more than 30 organizations and leaders in global health, foreign relations and faith communities, saying that a five-year “clean” reauthorization would help fend off strategic rivals seeking influence in regions that rely on PEPFAR support.

“As authoritarian China and Russia seek to increase their influence in Africa by any means possible, PEPFAR has been a shining example of compassion, transparency and accountability, as well as a massive strategic success story for the United States,” the letter reads. “Abandoning it abruptly now would send a bleak message, suggesting we are no longer able to set aside our politics for the betterment of democracies and the world.”

Deborah Birx of the Bush Institute, who led PEPFAR during the Obama and Trump administrations and helped organize Wednesday’s letter, said the congressional debate over the program “is bigger than PEPFAR,” citing the growing political divides over foreign aid, funding the Defense Department and other areas that were traditionally bipartisan.

“There are places where this country has compromised across the aisle for issues that transcend any specific party,” Birx added. “That’s what PEPFAR was about — translating the best of America.”

PEPFAR’s fate has been further clouded by uncertainty in Congress, as House Republicans spent most of October without a speaker, paralyzing legislative efforts in the chamber. Lawmakers and staffers told The Washington Post that it was unclear whether newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who is staunchly antiabortion and a longtime ally of conservative advocacy groups that allege PEPFAR is funding abortions abroad, would favor swiftly reauthorizing the program.

Johnson’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Senate’s PEPFAR efforts have also been disrupted. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who was steering Democrats’ efforts and working with Republicans to find a deal, stepped down last month as Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair after he was indicted over allegations he accepted bribes in exchange for exerting political influence. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), who had not been closely involved in the PEPFAR negotiations, is now serving as committee chair.

Lawmakers in both parties have discussed attempting to attach PEPFAR’s reauthorization to a larger bill to fund the government at the end of this year, but congressional staffers and experts have said they remain cautious about its prospects.

“If the only conversation is abortion, we’re not going to have a reauthorized bill,” Dybul said this week, calling on public health experts “to stand up, to speak, and not allow the misinformation to win.”

PEPFAR partner organizations across the globe said they are nervously watching the congressional negotiations, which have raised international questions about whether the United States remains committed to its long-running HIV program.

“The anxiety we are causing to patients and health workers is unfair,” Nkatha Njeru, the coordinator and CEO of Nairobi-based African Christian Health Associations Platform, wrote in an email.

It is unclear what will end the logjam. Former president Bush appealed to Congress to reauthorize the program for five years in an op-ed in The Post published last month, and senior officials from both parties have increasingly issued their own pleas.

“I can’t think of another thing like PEPFAR until I go back to the Marshall Plan,” said Bob McDonald, who served as secretary of Veterans Affairs during the Obama administration and who co-signed the letter sent by the Bush Institute on Wednesday. “Imagine if we had been against the Marshall Plan.”

Asked how to break the political stalemate, Nkengasong called for a “dialogue” with the program’s critics. “We have to have a forum where we have an honest conversation … and lead with facts and not misinformation and disinformation,” the PEPFAR chief said.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Oct 26, 2023

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Herstory Begins Now posted:

yeah there's a dude with literally zero relevant experience in one of the most experience dependent jobs in all of government. idk what even the best case scenario looks like

Best case is shadow speaker Scalise Emmer and Stefanik. Speakers without formal Leadership experience like Hastert and Ryan ended up relying on the majority Leaders and whips a lot and they were in congress for much longer and more high-profile than Johnson.

Congress has extremely elaborate and arcane rules and understanding them is actually extremely important to doing what you want.

Worst case ( for republicans) is Johnson ignores the rest of leadership because he’s a true believer with god on his side and he keeps getting his agenda rolled, frustrated and thrown out for arcane parliamentary reasons

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014
He is ideologically pure, managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through, and is a loyal Trump sycophant. That's all that matters these days to the Republican party, the rest is just details. So what if he's ineffective.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
He was competent enough to manage to get the job when nobody else was. He will probably continue to be more competent than all the chucklefucks he beat.

Probably also will continue to be a right wing nut job which contains its own set of limitations.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Cimber posted:

managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through

Managed to reduce the embarrassment, for now

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

He was competent enough to manage to get the job when nobody else was. He will probably continue to be more competent than all the chucklefucks he beat.

The Republicans haven't had a competent speaker since John Boehner, you're not exactly clearing a high bar with Mike Johnson.

Aztec Galactus
Sep 12, 2002

Competent in 2023 means "don't light the country on fire" or art least "only light the country on fire a little", and we really don't know if he's cleared that bar yet

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

He was competent enough to manage to get the job when nobody else was. He will probably continue to be more competent than all the chucklefucks he beat.

Probably also will continue to be a right wing nut job which contains its own set of limitations.

Getting elected and achieving things once elected are very different skill sets and motivations

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Cimber posted:

He is ideologically pure, managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through, and is a loyal Trump sycophant. That's all that matters these days to the Republican party, the rest is just details. So what if he's ineffective.

Yeah agreed. The purpose of Republicans in government is to kill it off - damaging the nation is sort of the point.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Angry_Ed posted:

The Republicans haven't had a competent speaker since John Boehner, you're not exactly clearing a high bar with Mike Johnson.

Oh absolutely. But nevertheless
Managing to step over the curb rather than tripping and eating it is a marked increase in competence for these people.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Cimber posted:

He is ideologically pure, managed to put an end to the embarrassment the GOP was going through, and is a loyal Trump sycophant. That's all that matters these days to the Republican party, the rest is just details. So what if he's ineffective.

I don't think their problem was just finding a speaker candidate. The Gaetz crew wants to do things that Republicans can't do when all they control is the house. Mike Johnson will become the establishment uniparty swamp when he won't hold a vote on An Act to Reduce the Age of Consent for Republican Politicians, which he won't because it would fail and a bunch of representatives would lose reelection.

(to be fair, Republicans might lose the house in 2024 before that happens)

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More info about the mass shooter in Maine:

- The shooter is still at large.

- His family reportedly contacted the army reserves and were concerned he was having "an acute mental crisis" a few weeks ago.

- His army unit was also the one that sent him to get mental health treatment for two weeks this past summer. It's not clear what the results of the treatment were or what happened afterwards.

- He purchased the gun used in the shooting legally this year.

- His family did not attempt to restrict his access to firearms because they never believed he would actually hurt anyone.

- Law enforcement was not able to legally restrict his access to firearms.

- He had no diagnosed mental health issues and his family reports he never had any mental health issues until about 9 months ago.

- The shooter received hearing aids earlier this year due to hearing damage from being around gun fire as a firearm instructor and claimed that the hearing aids caused him to hear voices who were saying horrible things. He shortly became convinced that everyone was against him and was trying to hurt him.

- The shooter has no apparent connection to the restaurant or bowling alley where most of the victims were.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1717617329519858048

quote:

The family of the Army reservist accused of fatally shooting more than a dozen people in Lewiston, Maine, alerted police and military officials that he was experiencing an “acute” mental health episode before the Wednesday night massacre, the suspect’s sister-in-law said.

Robert Card, 40, a firearms instructor and longtime member of the Army Reserve, began to hear voices that were saying “horrible” things about him a couple of months ago when he was fitted for high-powered hearing aids, according to Katie Card, who is married to his brother.

“He was picking up voices that he had never heard,” she told NBC News. “His mind was twisting them around. He was humiliated by the things that he thought were being said.”

Katie Card said the family did their best to reassure Robert Card that the comments were not real, including by verifying with some of the people he claimed had made the remarks.

But, she said, “it turned into a manic belief.”

“He was just very set in his belief that everyone was against him all of a sudden,” she said.

Robert Card, who was still at large early Thursday afternoon, is accused of killing at least 18 people and injuring many others at a bar and bowling alley, police said.

His sister-in-law said the family reached out to police and the Army Reserve base where he serves as they “got increasingly concerned" in the last few weeks.

“We just reached out to make sure everyone was on the same page because he is someone who does gun training,” she said. “We were concerned about his mental state. That’s all.”

Her husband went “back and forth” with the Army, Katie Card said.

“They were following up on it, too, but he’s never been someone we thought would actually do anything,” she said.

The Army, which confirmed Robert Card’s status with the Reserve, did not immediately respond to a subsequent request for comment by NBC News about the family’s warning.

Two senior law enforcement officials told NBC News that Robert Card’s military unit commanders sent him to receive psychiatric treatment this summer after they became concerned about threats he made to the base and his claims that he was hearing voices.

Robert Card spent about two weeks undergoing in-patient psychiatric treatment and was released, according to the officials. It is not clear what further action was taken.

Katie Card declined to discuss whether the family tried to restrict his access to firearms.

The senior law enforcement officials said the weapon used in the attack was a sniper rifle with .308 caliber bullets, and that it was purchased legally in 2023.

Robert Card enlisted in the Army Reserve in December 2002 and had no combat deployments, an Army spokesperson said.

His sister-in-law said he had severe hearing loss likely due to being around constant gunfire.

She said the family has been continuously messaging him to tell him he’s loved and that “he needs to do the right thing” but has not heard from him.

Katie Card said her brother-in-law is a “wonderful person” and a great father to his son who just graduated high school. She said his behavior change was sudden and that he had not previously experienced mental health issues.

“We don’t know this person. This is not him,” she said. “We are so sorry for the pain he’s caused others."

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