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fatherboxx)
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If you have a Lada and a Bentley and you want your guys to drive one of them into a mine, it's not hard to make the choice. Especially if you expect that at a later point you might come to a situation where the Bentley's better performance is of some use. Another reason is that Russia has been using T-72 and newer stuff for everyday use and a few wars now for decades so they probably have already cannibalised some of the mothballed T-72's and T-80's before this even started, meanwhile T-55 and T-62 fleets have remained mostly untouched. They are an untapped resource, meanwhile the more modern tanks could come useful if the strategic situation becomes more fluid and mobile again. Finally I'm reminded of that stroke of genius not many years back when Putin received a battalion (30) of T-34's from Laos and in exchange sold an equal number of T-72's. How we still haven't seen them in Ukraine is a mystery.
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Oct 28, 2023 15:03
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T-34's? I'd imagine you'd have to replace a significant amount of the internals just get them to run.
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Oct 28, 2023 16:05
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dr_rat posted:T-34's? I'd imagine you'd have to replace a significant amount of the internals just get them to run. Lao People's Army had kept them operational to this day. That's why Russia wanted them, to parade them on Victory Day. Operational WW2 tanks are not that rare, but having dozens of the same type is unusual - usually even in big budget WW2 movies you seldom see more than a platoon of Shermans, and even that is just because Sherm was along with T-34 the most numerous model of the war. How many still run I don't know.
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Oct 28, 2023 16:28
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If you count static displays (which a team of mechanics with a machine shop could probably get running again) I wouldn't be surprised if there are thousands of privately owned Shermans in the US
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Oct 28, 2023 16:41
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Nenonen posted:
Yes you can literally go to a bunch of places in central/eastern Europe and pay a few hundred bucks to drive around in an privately owned operational T-34 with your mates. There were a gazillion of the things spread out across the Warzaw pact. Now, fielding them in modern warfare against anything but militia armed with kalashnikovs at best is another level of crazy. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Oct 28, 2023 |
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Oct 28, 2023 18:07
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DTurtle posted:The whole video (and others on their channel) is about using satellite pictures of depots to look at and count the actual number of vehicles and the development of those numbers over time. It is the complete opposite of some slow news day armchair general post. The older tanks are less likely to have been stripped of key parts to maintain active service vehicles and in general do not have technology that depends on imported & difficult to manufacture electronics. The older tanks are also insanely bad compared to the more modern stuff in every possible way.
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Oct 28, 2023 18:48
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lilljonas posted:Yes you can literally go to a bunch of places in central/eastern Europe and pay a few hundred bucks to drive around in an privately owned operational T-34 with your mates. There were a gazillion of the things spread out across the Warzaw pact. The 40mm HEDP grenade fired from a Mk19 or similar high-velocity grenade launcher will very much get a penetration on almost every angle except the hull sloped glacis and the turret front, let alone a RPG, let alone a Javelin.
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Oct 28, 2023 21:44
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Oct 29, 2023 01:13
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Owling Howl posted:It's probably not the official policy of the Russian armed forces but it seems pretty plausible that one or more units have done so at some point or another. They film themselves shooting and decapitating prisoners so I'm not really sure why we should doubt they'd shoot a few deserters here and there. As someone who talks to russian soldiers on a regular basis, lol at people convinced there are Enemy At The Gates blocking units regularly gunning people in the back. One guy saw one Lieutenant shoot a guy. One guess about if the Lieutenant will ever see Russia again.
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Oct 29, 2023 01:40
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I saw yet another anonymous but kinda plausible in a "where there's smoke there may or may not be fire" sense that Putin's health is pretty much turbofucked. I am taking it with a grain of salt (though I 1000% believe that Putin is unwell, the only question to me is how unwell), however, let's just say Putin DOES die. What do y'all reckon is most likely to happen? Does Russia just use body doubles in perpetuity and have the Russian military continue this poo poo via a literal shadow government while trying to convince the world Putin is alive? Does Russia eventually admit it, but then Putin's successor continues the fight using Putin as a martyr? Or does Putin's successor realize how goddamn insane this whole thing is and gradually give up the ghost, leading to the end of the conflict? EDIT: Okay, I searched on Twitter and saw video of (allegedly) Putin in (allegedly) Moscow from apparently yesterday and he looked pretty chipper so yes, almost certainly turbo bullshit, but the hypothetical question still remains, I suppose. FWIW if anyone thinks me just a gullible doofus, the main reason I'm convinced Putin's unwell somehow is I find it super weird how infrequently he appears, and I just find it weird that there could be SO many reports and have them be all 100% bullshit. SamuraiFoochs fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 03:56
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SamuraiFoochs posted:I saw yet another anonymous but kinda plausible in a "where there's smoke there may or may not be fire" sense that Putin's health is pretty much turbofucked. I am taking it with a grain of salt (though I 1000% believe that Putin is unwell, the only question to me is how unwell), however, let's just say Putin DOES die. What do y'all reckon is most likely to happen? It is unlikely to be a body double weekend at bernie's situation. There will be some sort of internal decision about an actual successor and that will determine what happens in the conflict; the specifics of who is likely to "win" such a process are probably known to nobody, and certainly not to us. Part of Putin's longevity as a strongman dictator is that he has avoided letting anyone reach such a position.
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Oct 29, 2023 04:06
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If I were Ukrainian intelligence spreading rumors about putins health would be a constant daily task.
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Oct 29, 2023 04:07
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SamuraiFoochs posted:FWIW if anyone thinks me just a gullible doofus, the main reason I'm convinced Putin's unwell somehow is I find it super weird how infrequently he appears, and I just find it weird that there could be SO many reports and have them be all 100% bullshit. By this metric, the Kim dynasty of North Korea are some of the healthiest people possible.
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Oct 29, 2023 04:12
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Discendo Vox posted:Part of Putin's longevity as a strongman dictator is that he has avoided letting anyone reach such a position. Anyone that acts too competent at their job within his circle is promptly evacuated out of the nearest window, or has an AA missile express-delivered to their plane in-flight. When he does die the succession be absolutely ugly.
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Oct 29, 2023 04:15
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:If I were Ukrainian intelligence spreading rumors about putins health would be a constant daily task. Log on, sip of coffee, checks news, cracks fingers. "Putin with what appears to be deep bruising on left butt cheek. Cancer?"
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Oct 29, 2023 04:52
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Volmarias posted:By this metric, the Kim dynasty of North Korea are some of the healthiest people possible. It's a little different because NK is quite possibly the most isolationist country on Earth, certainly moreso than Russia, so not seeing them as much is significantly less odd. Also again, not saying dude is on his deathbed or anything, but it'd also shock me if the dude was healthy as a horse in the way that the Kremlin insists, either. Basically what I'm saying is I feel like there's misinformation coming from both sides to the extent that I think the truth is probably in the middle of the misinformation noise. Maybe I'm wrong but that seems like a pretty plausible outlook to me. 
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Oct 29, 2023 05:20
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all the sources suggesting putin is in ill health are worse than worthless, you can genuinely discount them 100% until something even vaguely credible comes along. it's all just anonymous telegram rumors
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Oct 29, 2023 05:30
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Herstory Begins Now posted:all the sources suggesting putin is in ill health are worse than worthless, you can genuinely discount them 100% until something even vaguely credible comes along. it's all just anonymous telegram rumors Okay then, guess I'm dumb! My bad for the unintentional derail, carry on with more worthwhile discussion. It was a sincere curiosity.
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Oct 29, 2023 05:32
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Putin is like 70 and probably has a history of alcohol abuse so he's probably not in perfect health, but he also has world class doctors in residence so he's unlikely to keel over dead anytime soon.
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Oct 29, 2023 06:12
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Who would the candidates be following Putin passing anyway? Gerasimov? Shoigu? Medvedev? I'm kind of just throwing out the biggest names with some nominal backing of power, but I'm not familiar with the more extensive power blocs in Russia beyond Ukrainian war concerns. Or are we going to have a quiet power struggle similar to the death of Stalin?
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Oct 29, 2023 06:40
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Donkringel posted:Who would the candidates be following Putin passing anyway? Gerasimov? Shoigu? Medvedev? Another reason to hold back the T-72s: who has control of the most basically rules Moscovia after Putin dies.
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Oct 29, 2023 06:50
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SamuraiFoochs posted:FWIW if anyone thinks me just a gullible doofus, the main reason I'm convinced Putin's unwell somehow is I find it super weird how infrequently he appears, and I just find it weird that there could be SO many reports and have them be all 100% bullshit. This is a very common logical fallacy, and one which is exploited by many people and organizations peddling disinformation. Compare to the antivax disinfo on social media. "I'm hearing all these reports about people getting heart attacks from the vaccine, they can't all be wrong?". But they are. Repeating a lie over and over really does work to make people believe it or at least start questioning their beliefs. I think it's good to not beat ourselves up too much when it happens but to be aware of our human failings.
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Oct 29, 2023 07:07
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spankmeister posted:This is a very common logical fallacy, and one which is exploited by many people and organizations peddling disinformation. Compare to the antivax disinfo on social media. "I'm hearing all these reports about people getting heart attacks from the vaccine, they can't all be wrong?". But they are. Repeating a lie over and over really does work to make people believe it or at least start questioning their beliefs. Jumping to any conclusions is fallacious but Putin rarely making public appearances is pretty weird. It could be a personality trait, deliberate calculated decision, depression, physical illness or, for all I know, perfectly within cultural political norms in Russia. It's my impression Putin prefers to sort of float above it all as a wise father of the nation type. If unpopular reform are on the table he lets his subordinated deal with it and if the pushback is too severe he'll evebtually deign to enter the chat and graciously dictate a compromise. If that's by design it makes sense to keep a low profile while inflation is up, interest rates keeps getting hiked and obituaries are doing record numbers.
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Oct 29, 2023 07:36
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Owling Howl posted:Jumping to any conclusions is fallacious but Putin rarely making public appearances is pretty weird. Over the past few years he's seemed pretty -probably justifiably- paranoid, and there were reports that during covid he isolated himself from all but a couple of key people he trusted. I mean paranoia doesn't mean he shouldn't be able to still do skype -or whatever- interviews, but he may just be limiting a lot of public commitments, and only focusing on what ever he thinks is important, which If it hasn't been hurting his popularity than . It's not like he needs to worry about elections or anything.
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Oct 29, 2023 07:46
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Owling Howl posted:Jumping to any conclusions is fallacious but Putin rarely making public appearances is pretty weird. It could be a personality trait, deliberate calculated decision, depression, physical illness or, for all I know, perfectly within cultural political norms in Russia. I was talking more about the flood of "putin ia very sick" and "putin is dead" rumors, I should have left the "doesn't make many public appearances" part from the quote. Putin has made very few public appearances since the pandemic started but I don't know if he already started doing less appearances before.
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Oct 29, 2023 07:48
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the big issue that gets people with dogshit telegram rumors is really simple: if it comes from an anonymous telegram channel, it's worth literally nothing there's also a secondary issue where pro-ukraine twitter including some prominent ukrainian officials have been signal boosting some really insanely sketchy telegrams like the general svr poo poo and the vchk ogpu channel which both get used to launder rumors and other info-op poo poo. I can't stress enough that as far as telegram is concerned, if its anonymous, just discount it the same way you would some complete rando on twitter or some youtube channel with 50 viewers making a claim
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Oct 29, 2023 08:12
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SamuraiFoochs posted:however, let's just say Putin DOES die. What do y'all reckon is most likely to happen? insert every historian ever asked for speculative predictions during an interview sighing here that there is no clear sector of the state or extrapolitical group expected to produce a successor--i don't think there's good reason to say that, say, the security services would produce a successor instead of the military, or that there's a favored successor in the patronage network similar to Mirziyoyev after Karimov ate it. Mishustin is not a designated success in the slightest and idk if he'd even fill the designated constitutional successor role--the modern russian state kinda likes its rule of law absent a higher power to overrule it, but as high as stakes are (and as little as the law has actually been practiced) i sincerely doubt everyone would just follow the "PM's acting president, free and fair elections will be held according to CIK's highest standards within three months" letter of the constitution Morrow posted:Putin ... probably has a history of alcohol abuse wat Donkringel posted:Who would the candidates be following Putin passing anyway? Gerasimov? Shoigu? Medvedev? throwing darts at a name board ain't really gonna magically find some hidden shadow emperor bullseye--wait, no! it's been there all along! the grey cardinal really is in charge! SURKOV'S BACK BABY! IT'S BEEN A GRAND SCHEME ALL ALONG AND HE'S OCELOTED HIS WAY TO THE TOP! ALL A GREAT AND VERY INTRICATE PLAN METICULOUSLY EXECUTED. the current structure of the russian federal government, very much by design, does not have a second in command. it does have prominent figures with control over various significant assets, but without clear visible power blocs. you can try to kremlinology scry some and conjecture succession scenarios, but it's drat hard. any visible coalition that may wish to take power would be far more visible to Putin than us internet armchair idiots, or even professional idiots: nation states employ vast diplomatic and intelligence corps entirely because it's really drat hard to get a good picture of state systems from outside them, especially when trying to form a power bloc that's visible to people inside the system is going to get you swiftly ejected from it so, in a sense yes, some sort of Death of Stalin power struggle is the most likely outcome simply because that's what you usually get with a sudden power vacuum, but trying to figure out what that struggle might look like is hard as hell. nobody is lining up and publicly announcing "if Putin dies, i wish to take power!", and anyone privately thinking that is trying to keep it private between themselves and their closest associates. the Russian government and society also isn't the same creature as the Soviet government and society circa 1950, so while power struggle probably yes, guarantee of narrow elite power struggle no--it's a possibility but not an inevitability, because that's not how history works what we can know for certain: Will Saddam be killed? Yes. he's already dead. Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? No. he's already dead. Hamas tho... Will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes. wait, gently caress, wrong thread. also wrong war, wrong decade, and im not grover :| ed: less shitposty response: if you find yourself asking these sorts of questions, embrace the joy that nobody knows, go read some history books, there is no shortage of them. you will become no better at predicting the future, but that quoteable Snyder bit about being less surprised by it is quite true. he's good at quoteable bits. Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 08:27 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 08:21
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From what little I admittedly know, if Putin passes, my guess is that it's likely to be Nikolai Patrushev next. I don't think the succession will be anywhere near as messy as a lot of people expect or want to happen. Putin's way of thinking is hugely prevalent among the elites and politics in Russia. They want the gravy klepto-train to keep rolling on
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Oct 29, 2023 10:39
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I imagine if Putin dies suddenly, it'll be whoever has the strongest grasp on the security forces near Moscow at the point his death is known. Wagner's ride to Moscow showed that Russia is not prepared for an internal power struggle, or at least that the plans in place are paralysing when the threat comes from an unexpected angle. The line of succession should make it go to the prime minister, but people have fallen out of windows before. This is the fundamental problem with most autocratic strongmen regimes, the successor can only take the mantle if they're as strong and ruthless as the one that just died.
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Oct 29, 2023 10:53
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khwarezm posted:https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1717738123893817350 He's a huge liar and making up poo poo hoping people can't read Ukrainian. He uses the fact that they were acquitted of terrorism (because it wasn't seen as applicable) as proof that they were falsely accused (only one defendant was acquitted) to imply that they were all acquitted and that the court is trying to say that it was Euromaidan's leadership who really did it... despite convicting all but one of them on various charges in relation to the shootings.
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Oct 29, 2023 11:29
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https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1718573392465477914 Illya Ponomaryov continues to be an insane assclown
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Oct 29, 2023 11:34
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Donkringel posted:Who would the candidates be following Putin passing anyway? Gerasimov? Shoigu? Medvedev?
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Oct 29, 2023 14:40
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spankmeister posted:This is a very common logical fallacy, and one which is exploited by many people and organizations peddling disinformation. This is a good post and bears repeating, because it is literally one of the tactics used in propaganda. First, flood the zone with stories about [thing]. The human brain will begin to weight more heavily messages told with greater frequency, particularly if the message comes via multiple channels. Second, make exaggerated claims. The human brain actually won't believe the full magnitude, but will tend to believe something must be partially true if it warrants large claims. These techniques can be used for both good--e.g. advertising vaccines on social media, and on the nightly news, and at town hall meetings, and on posters at your workplace--and for evil--e.g. Trump's claims the entire national election is rigged. This is why courts (when they work) require evidence rather than hearsay. "Many people are saying" is, in fact, utter poo poo for determining and acting upon objective reality.
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Oct 29, 2023 16:28
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Owling Howl posted:It's my impression Putin prefers to sort of float above it all as a wise father of the nation type. He’s explicitly playing that role of father. That’s part of the whole Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality bit.
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Oct 29, 2023 16:57
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Owling Howl posted:Jumping to any conclusions is fallacious but Putin rarely making public appearances is pretty weird. It could be a personality trait, deliberate calculated decision, depression, physical illness or, for all I know, perfectly within cultural political norms in Russia. He is an elderly paranoid hypochondriac who rules by setting up other people to blame when anything goes wrong. He spent the pandemic living in a bubble and now is occupied with purging coup plotters (some of which are even real). More direct involvement in public life would just set him up to take more of the blame for the ongoing slaughter, would mean more opportunities for more clever coup plotters (real or otherwise), and is generally not something he seems into. I wouldn't read too much into it.
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Oct 29, 2023 18:18
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He's also plain getting old. When Putin first became president he was 48, now he's 71. Old people need to sleep more to function and especially to look presentable.
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Oct 29, 2023 18:30
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Wtf all my grandparents slept less and less when they got older. Like waking up at 4am. Then they had to wait for hours before the market would finally open at 8:00.
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Oct 29, 2023 19:09
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Your grandparents probably went to bed earlier than you ever would and also weren't presidents of nuclear powers. Or are you saying that when people become senile, they get more energetic overall? Huge if true.
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Oct 29, 2023 19:14
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No, they generally have worse sleep but they still sleep less and wake more often. Thats aging for you. Also I would imagine being president of a nuclear power waging a war sleeps less well than your average person of that age.
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Oct 29, 2023 19:24
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bad_fmr posted:No, they generally have worse sleep but they still sleep less and wake more often. Thats aging for you. Also I would imagine being president of a nuclear power waging a war sleeps less well than your average person of that age. That's the conundrum, though. To function at that position you need to sleep. With help of drugs if not otherwise plausible. There's no point to showing on television if you are just rambling uncontrollably and looking like a tired dog poo poo. 
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Oct 29, 2023 19:31
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