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Yeast posted:Is anywhere taking bets on the next QLD Gov yet? sportsbet has lnp for 1.25 and labor for 4.00. probably too early to be damning but still not great
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Oct 28, 2023 05:43
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The LNP needs to win seats in Brisbane and I see that as something The Greens can do but not the LNP, The LNP can win seats in the regions but that will just lead to a Labor minority government as Labor + Greens + Katter will most likely outnumber LNP + Katter + One Nation.
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Oct 28, 2023 05:43
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there are more seats outside brisbane (just) than within it. the lnp can form government without gaining any seats in brisbane (there are only a handful of marginals in brisbane to begin with) though obviously it's a little more difficult for them to get there in that case (but not that much more difficult). the numbers from the most recent poll (52 tpp to the lnp) would suggest an lnp minority government, backed by kap and possibly one nation if necessary. on those numbers you'd expect about 45 seats to the lnp and 41 to labor, assuming no changes to the crossbench. so that would give lnp + kap (assuming they stay on 3 seats which is pretty safe, they aren't likely to win or lose any) a majority. if the lnp fell short a little bit more they could also rely on one nation if they had to, but they also would have a reasonable chance of winning that seat off one nation anyway. the only way labor would be able to form government there is if they relied on katter (3 seats), greens (2 seats) and sandy bolton (assuming she keeps her seat, a fairly safe assumption) to get to a bare majority. there is no way a minority labor government that has to rely on both the greens and kap would ever happen or function (given how greens and kap would never agree on anything). kap are pretty indistinguishable from one nation in rhetoric in state parliament these days too, all far-right culture war bullshit. i do expect the greens will gain seats, but only from labor so it doesn't really affect any of those numbers. they should be able to gain at least 2 seats from labor (and if they don't win those it'll be a real failure of a campaign) and there's another 2 more that are potentially within reach, so they should end up with 4-6 seats. i don't really expect any of the seats they could maybe someday win off the lnp to be in reach during an election where there's surely going to be at least some swing to the lnp, but idk we will see how the council election goes, that should give a much clearer idea of what's possible. the election is still a year away so a lot can happen anyway. if labor dumps palaszczuk quickly maybe they can turn things around with a fresh face. they're certainly not in an unwinnable position or anything but palaszczuk's personal popularity has finally collapsed which is usually a sign of an impending loss. Jezza of OZPOS posted:the insane fundamentalist Christian wing of the qld lnp is so numerically insignifigant and not even relevant electorally and i genuinely dont know how they manage to wield as much influence as they do. i used to serve tim mander as a regular and i asked him what was up with that once and his response was 'i wish i knew' wait why would mander say that lol. he's part of that insane fundamentalist christian wing! i think the thing is just that the only real difference between the fundies and the rest of the party is priorities - the fundies would really like them to be screaming about abortion etc. constantly but the others don't think it should a priority or a campaign focus even though the vast majority of them do support abortion restrictions. they don't really have any moderates like the liberals do in other states, there's only a handful who that label remotely applies to and you wouldn't call any of them at all socially progressive. lih fucked around with this message at 06:50 on Oct 28, 2023 |
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Oct 28, 2023 06:35
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I’m just trying to work out if I put a few grand on them to win.
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Oct 28, 2023 07:54
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im not up on manders personal beliefs or involvement with the fundamentalist faction but i meant more in terms of representing his constituents, he represents a pretty multicultural seat (by northside brisbane standards anyway) with no real religious majority, the closest thing id imagine would be catholics or presbyterian, hardly the fundamentalist sects i was referring to. i was more thinking the areas around towoomba and the gold coast where that baptist american megachurch culture really has a crushing hegemony over the area
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Oct 28, 2023 09:10
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Yeast posted:I’m just trying to work out if I put a few grand on them to win. 25% return put all your super on it
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Oct 28, 2023 09:21
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hambeet posted:25% return Too late I already put all my super into a single spin of the $1 pokie at the Cass. I didn't win.
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Oct 28, 2023 10:13
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You stimulated the economy so we're all winners 
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Oct 28, 2023 10:33
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Eediot Jedi posted:You stimulated the economy so we're all winners *cheers from dumpster*
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Oct 28, 2023 10:45
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Jezza of OZPOS posted:im not up on manders personal beliefs or involvement with the fundamentalist faction but i meant more in terms of representing his constituents, he represents a pretty multicultural seat (by northside brisbane standards anyway) with no real religious majority, the closest thing id imagine would be catholics or presbyterian, hardly the fundamentalist sects i was referring to. i was more thinking the areas around towoomba and the gold coast where that baptist american megachurch culture really has a crushing hegemony over the area he's former ceo of some qld evangelical org and is very anti-abortion and everything else you'd expect would go along with that. is seat really one of the more multicultural ones in brisbane? i wouldn't have thought so. there's been a concerted effort at religious right entryism in the lnp in the last 15 years or so, accelerating after family first collapsed in 2017. their influence doesn't seem to be that closely related to local religiosity or anything, they've managed to gain control of a fair few brisbane lnp branches, even some in relatively progressive areas. this hasn't really been great for the lnp because obviously running hard-right candidates screaming about abortion in relatively progressive areas doesn't work out well. lih fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Oct 28, 2023 |
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Oct 28, 2023 11:10
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As a Queenslander I know the state I was born in gave us Bundy but I also know that politically speaking it has it down sides
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Oct 28, 2023 14:06
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Recoome posted:Hope the progressive no voters are loving the progress that has been made since voting no Stop acting like progressive no voters are responsible for loving things up, you massive piss baby. Racist elements in QLD just shot down attempts at a treaty and you're still spitting the dummy over the referendum? Can I offer you a bottle in this trying time?
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Oct 28, 2023 19:35
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GrandTheftAutism posted:Stop acting like progressive no voters are responsible for loving things up, you massive piss baby. Racist elements in QLD just shot down attempts at a treaty and you're still spitting the dummy over the referendum? Can I offer you a bottle in this trying time? OP is incredibly upset that they can't feel good about all the hard work they put into voting and eating a sausage.
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Oct 28, 2023 20:10
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GrandTheftAutism posted:Stop acting like progressive no voters are responsible for loving things up, you massive piss baby. Racist elements in QLD just shot down attempts at a treaty and you're still spitting the dummy over the referendum? Can I offer you a bottle in this trying time? 
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Oct 28, 2023 20:45
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GrandTheftAutism posted:Stop acting like progressive no voters are responsible for loving things up, you massive piss baby. Racist elements in QLD just shot down attempts at a treaty and you're still spitting the dummy over the referendum? Can I offer you a bottle in this trying time? Think it's because regressive no got everything they wanted and everything that was predicted has transpired. So it's easier to dunk on progressive no as at best useful idiots and at worst dawning that they have set their goals back decades. Can also dunk on progressive yes too for utterly loving everything but they lost, progressive no got the outcome they wanted so it's easier to make fun of so we don't weep for the decades to come. Republic when
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Oct 28, 2023 20:52
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Lid posted:Think it's because regressive no got everything they wanted and everything that was predicted has transpired. So it's easier to dunk on progressive no as at best useful idiots and at worst dawning that they have set their goals back decades. Can also dunk on progressive yes too for utterly loving everything but they lost, progressive no got the outcome they wanted so it's easier to make fun of so we don't weep for the decades to come. I reckon give it at least another 20 or 30 years for the next referendum - it’s not surprising that the cons backflipped on any idea of constitutional recognition and watering down any bipartisan engagement on it. I think a stack of people saw this coming if No won. Reading that article on Alice Springs, the term “hope” is used that things aren’t as bad as last time - but what has or will be changed? Doesn’t bode well imho which honestly sucks rear end.
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Oct 28, 2023 21:10
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Lid posted:Republic when There's are reasons that the Indigenous referendum came first and that they'll now shelve plans for a republic referendum, and they go beyond realpolitik. I mean I for one would feel a bit gross if the Australian people shot down the Voice but then a couple years later we happily voted in favour of breaking away from the last vestiges of the UK even though that would make zero tangible difference to a single Australian's life. Especially given the symbolism of the fact this country was first colonised in the name of the British Crown. I don't see how we can argue that it's time to move on from the Crown without also acknowledging Indigenous dispossession, and Australia has just roundly indicated that we aren't yet mature enough to do the latter.
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Oct 28, 2023 23:52
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GrandTheftAutism posted:Stop acting like progressive no voters are responsible for loving things up, you massive piss baby. Racist elements in QLD just shot down attempts at a treaty and you're still spitting the dummy over the referendum? Can I offer you a bottle in this trying time? None of us here genuinely believe that progressive no voters are responsible for this shitshow. We're just giving them poo poo over their utter failure to foresee the extremely predictable consequences of the no vote. Because they were powerfully smug in their holier than thou preaching and have been proven to be both wrong and dumb. Case in point: Bald Stalin posted:OP is incredibly upset that they can't feel good about all the hard work they put into voting and eating a sausage. hooman fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 00:15
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GrandTheftAutism posted:Stop acting like progressive no voters are responsible for loving things up, you massive piss baby. Racist elements in QLD just shot down attempts at a treaty and you're still spitting the dummy over the referendum? Can I offer you a bottle in this trying time? If this country can't get an independent Federal level body to oversee Indigenous Affairs then state level Treaties might be DOA in some cases. Victoria will probably get one and a few others might get up.
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Oct 29, 2023 00:39
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Recoome posted:I reckon give it at least another 20 or 30 years for the next referendum - it’s not surprising that the cons backflipped on any idea of constitutional recognition and watering down any bipartisan engagement on it. I think a stack of people saw this coming if No won. The last successful referendum was back in 1977, and only 8 of the 45 referendums we've ever had have been successful. The common element in those eight was that they all had bipartisan support before they went to the polls, I can't see that happening again in the foreseeable future.
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Oct 29, 2023 00:46
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Eediot Jedi posted:Steps one and two are interchangeable It depends on the place for sure but also the individual worker you get assigned giving a poo poo. But you can't rely on finding a good fit because the turnover rate is wild, you'll generally only have a particular person for a couple months at most and then have to start from square one with another person because your jobservice person found a different job that is less loving hellish for everyone involved The Peccadillo fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 01:53
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Oct 29, 2023 05:45
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Wow, Cory Bernadi. Now there’s a name I haven’t thought of in a while.
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Oct 29, 2023 05:57
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Looks like he got those numbers from this paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282293791_Norms_for_the_Standard_Progressive_Matrices_in_the_Gaza_Strip One of the authors is a well known racist, eugenicist and white nationalist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lynn
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Oct 29, 2023 06:01
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The irony of Cory Bernadi discussing IQ is of seismic proportions.
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Oct 29, 2023 06:07
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Looks like he got those numbers from this paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282293791_Norms_for_the_Standard_Progressive_Matrices_in_the_Gaza_Strip Yeah those are the only kinda guys who didn't sheepishly put IQ away as a science decades ago
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Oct 29, 2023 06:16
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you guys are missing the point, Cory is saying we should be sending Gaza books and teachers that's obviously the only explanation that makes any sense
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Oct 29, 2023 07:52
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqJ5gKZNkuY I want to call the Cory Bernardi hotline and get his priceless wisdom for 4.99 a minute.
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Oct 29, 2023 07:56
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Does this oval office still have his show on Sky News?
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Oct 29, 2023 10:27
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:The last successful referendum was back in 1977, and only 8 of the 45 referendums we've ever had have been successful. The common element in those eight was that they all had bipartisan support before they went to the polls, I can't see that happening again in the foreseeable future. I think the key to winning a referendum is making the campaign about getting that bipartisan support, and only having a vote once both parties have agreed on the wording of the amendment.
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Oct 29, 2023 11:01
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gay picnic defence posted:I think the key to winning a referendum is making the campaign about getting that bipartisan support, and only having a vote once both parties have agreed on the wording of the amendment. Peter Dutton isn't a real big "bipartisan support" kinda guy.  Turnbull was probably their best bet out of all the most recent LNP leaders but he dismissed the Uluru Statement From The Heart results because they recommended constitutional change so I don't think he would've backed the referendum either.
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Oct 29, 2023 13:11
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hooman posted:None of us here genuinely believe that progressive no voters are responsible for this shitshow. I already had a feeling the No vote was going to prevail, given the utterly weak nature of the Yes campaign, the sheer wall of misinformation the average punter kept running headfirst into, and the partisan split in Parliament. My progressive No vote was based on my belief that I saw the Voice not as a pathway to Treaty, but more as a milquetoast replacement for same, and I was not alone in that view. Some No voters may have failed to foresee the consequences of the No vote, but I'm definitely not one of them. I'm autistic, not stupid. Bald Stalin posted:OP is incredibly upset that they can't feel good about all the hard work they put into voting and eating a sausage. No, I just want Recoome to stop making GBS threads their pants in rage over my vote because it's starting to get annoying. GrandTheftAutism fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 21:43
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GrandTheftAutism posted:I already had a feeling the No vote was going to prevail, given the utterly weak nature of the Yes campaign, the sheer wall of misinformation the average punter kept running headfirst into, and the partisan split in Parliament. E: I’m editing out this dumb quip because you post about it and it’s not really that funny. Also just own your No vote my person. This is exactly what you wanted when you voted No. No need to get defensive, you exercised your democratic right and you should be proud of the consequences. Recoome fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 22:04
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Don't blame me, I voted for kodos
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Oct 29, 2023 22:08
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Recoome posted:E: I’m editing out this dumb quip because you post about it and it’s not really that funny. I'm fine with the consequences of my vote, I just wanted you to  about it.
GrandTheftAutism fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Oct 29, 2023 |
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Oct 29, 2023 22:19
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Question: do you drive a ute?
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Oct 29, 2023 23:02
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I don't drive at all
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Oct 29, 2023 23:03
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GrandTheftAutism posted:I already had a feeling the No vote was going to prevail, given the utterly weak nature of the Yes campaign, the sheer wall of misinformation the average punter kept running headfirst into, and the partisan split in Parliament. Having a federal independent body was the most likely scenario for actualisation of having any national level Treaty in the next decade or two. The Treaty would most likely mirror the Treaty of Waitangi and its usefulness would only go so far but it would be a start. I would say "you played yourself" but the only losers were Indigenous people and businesses. Most of Australia thought the way you do but that still means they were misinformed and the Coalition leaned into this ("If you don't know, vote no"). Changing government machinery oversight is rarely exciting and it was easy to convince people it wasn't needed because most people have limited interaction with Indigenous people. It's sad but not surprising.
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Oct 29, 2023 23:29
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GrandTheftAutism posted:No, I just want Recoome to stop making GBS threads their pants in rage over my vote because it's starting to get annoying. Nah not you, the lib whining about how a racist Australia is still racist and thinking that a vote was going to change it. A Perfect Twist posted:Having a federal independent body was the most likely scenario for actualisation of having any national level Treaty in the next decade or two. This is nonsense. There have been advisory bodies in the past. There can be advisory bodies again. Nothing about the words in the constituion prevent or force it to be listened to and their advice to be followed. White supremacist settler colonial governments that represent ruling capitalist class interests do what they want when they want it. A vote won't change that lol
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Oct 29, 2023 23:40
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Eediot Jedi posted:Question: do you drive a ute? Ute drivers aren't ethical no voters.
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Oct 29, 2023 23:42
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