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I know we just had a thread title change, but... Bad With Money: The solution is at sea
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Oct 31, 2023 16:50
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(if this is self-posting ding me but I hope it's more of a useful example) Just to put some numbers on it, the old family homestead, in the depths of the rust belt, was an 800 sqft SFR on a ~1/10th acre lot, built circa 1919. The street it sat on was roughly half-and-half small houses and duplexes. Today, by law, NONE of that can be built on that street unless it's replacing something (that burnt down, for instance), either because the lot sizes are too small or because it's no longer zoned for anything denser than SFRs. The amount of land you need per housing unit is way, way up compared to a hundred years ago in the US.
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Oct 31, 2023 16:53
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the only thing in your entire post that has risen materially in price is the land My sister built a four bed, two bath in Toowoomba and the cost to build is ~AUD$450k, land not included. Someone pointed out that permits are a lot and that's true. Which is why part of my post was pointing out that we insist upon building to code now. Inspections and governance costs real money and cost recovery is routine. I am on board with hate on the FYGM re-zoning opponents holding back knocking down single family domiciles on quarter acre blocks deep in the city. A holistic zoning approach like practiced in Singapore shows you can pack a lot of people in an area and still retain plenty of open spaces and quality living. And this post come in response to a post about how micro-houses, container houses, etc are generally a complete disaster because to get them to meet the modern standards is pretty much the cost of a full-size house built using modern, industralised methods. People can't take a block of land in the sticks and jam a cheap house on it because a cheap house (as in 50's housing as it exists in the minds of a lot of people today) doesn't exist.
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Oct 31, 2023 17:03
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zoning differently is not the special thing in singapore, its the 90% of all housing being public housing thats the special thing
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Oct 31, 2023 17:08
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Building 1000-1500 sq ft attached / all-but-attached houses on narrow lots is a great way to get a pleasant, walkable neighborhood out of single-family homes. Even better if you mix in low-rises along the commercial corridors. There are some trade-offs — I can definitely hear my neighbors through our shared wall sometimes — but in my experience, “fixing” them by separating houses by even just 5-10 feet really kills density and therefore changes what the neighborhood can support. You go from having 2-3 commercial areas within a ten minute walk to having maybe 1 that probably doesn’t have everything you need. What I’m saying is the separation thing doesn’t belong on that building standards list.
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Oct 31, 2023 17:19
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minimum building height 40 stories imo
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Oct 31, 2023 17:39
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My home was sold for around $10k in 1955 (including the land) and is about 1400 sqft, 3bd, 2 bath. The only things that it has on the list of Bad Stuff that Electric Wrigglies posted is asbestos in the flooring tile and lead paint, neither of which have extremely expensive replacements. That house would sell for around $550k rn, and it has had maybe $100k worth of improvements performed. If you had just the land for free, it would cost about $300k to build a similar place as a modular home. Inflation says that $10k in 1955 is about $120k in 2023 dollars. I'm honestly not sure what the biggest problem is that's contributing to it, but I don't think that zoning or improvements or whatever are a big enough deal to drive that extreme of a cost differential. Especially because places like Houston have no zoning to speak of and are still expensive, car-driven nightmares. I'd guess that another big contributor is that the majority of US homeowners have their homes as their main/only asset and that drives a lot of finance-sector hijinx, but I honestly don't know what the hell is causing housing to be as far out of step with other costs as it is. Lyesh fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Oct 31, 2023 |
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Oct 31, 2023 17:48
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Bird in a Blender posted:I guess technically yes it doesn't require more land, we could build just as densely in the burbs as we do in the cities, but one of the big selling points of moving to the burbs is to have more land. Although I would like to see someone try to build a McMansion on my 25' wide lot in the city. Oh just come to Seattle. Tear down a 1940s house to put 3 3 story townhouses in the same lot. Some of them can't be more than 25' wide.
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Oct 31, 2023 17:53
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Lawns are dumb and if people want houses that go right to the edge of the property line instead of a lawn that they barely use but have to take care of or even some kind of xeriscape that they don't have to take care of but barely use, I'm fine with that.
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Oct 31, 2023 18:07
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bitcoin islanders getting mad when it's parked off the coast obstructing their view of the lovely satoshi bay sunsets
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Oct 31, 2023 18:33
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Lyesh posted:My home was sold for around $10k in 1955 (including the land) and is about 1400 sqft, 3bd, 2 bath. The only things that it has on the list of Bad Stuff that Electric Wrigglies posted is asbestos in the flooring tile and lead paint, neither of which have extremely expensive replacements. This is several years old, but it's still mostly accurate: https://marketurbanism.com/2016/09/19/how-houston-regulates-land-use/ Houston doesn't have traditional zoning, but its not a city where you can build whatever you want within code. There are in fact quite a few restrictions that matter.
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Oct 31, 2023 19:42
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golden bubble posted:This is several years old, but it's still mostly accurate: https://marketurbanism.com/2016/09/19/how-houston-regulates-land-use/ I know, but they're not everywhere in the city (part of the problem is that they're incredibly variable depending on where you are). And if getting rid of zoning sounds hard, I can't even imagine trying to void all manner of existing contracts. I guess the problem is more that there are a lot of well-to-do people that will fight tooth and nail to keep zoning or an analogous structure in place.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:03
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I live in a nice part of my city that hasn’t has good buildable lots in 100 years. The “new construction” is literally in an alley, on a tiny tiny plot, where the house goes up five stories and sells for a million dollars. And they sell them before they break ground.
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Oct 31, 2023 21:40
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DrPossum posted:bitcoin islanders getting mad when it's parked off the coast obstructing their view of the lovely satoshi bay sunsets No backing from a navy you say, legally seizable by any jurisdiction you say?  Let's bring  back to it's roots.What is it with ancaps and boats anyway?
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Nov 1, 2023 04:27
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https://twitter.com/numetal_moment/status/1719447098037612619 https://twitter.com/srubenfeld/status/1719493249075646666 Maybe the real nu metal was the securities fraud we committed on the way.
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Nov 1, 2023 04:51
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golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/numetal_moment/status/1719447098037612619 ".... to steal millions of dollars from a global financial services company based in Menlo Park, California." AHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It was kind of an open secret in both finance and tech that Robin Hood was loving getting their faces ripped off by scammers on the "instant deposit" scam. Everyone else that offers instant deposit credit doesn't give it unless you're a seasoned account and then ONLY in fully marginable securities or well under your account equity and with a margin agreement. And it's still a huge risk that's very closely monitored because ACH is such a poo poo payment rail that gets scammed constantly. The assumption was they were buying crypto and running, or yolo'ing 0dte options and burning the loser accounts. I guess sham wash trades is more brain cells than most people expected. Still pretty dumb though, because if you're always the counterparty on fraudulent options trades in options nobody else is trading it's very easy for the government to find you!
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Nov 1, 2023 05:07
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mrmcd posted:if you're always the counterparty on fraudulent options trades in options nobody else is trading it's very easy for the government to find you! Yah this doesn't seem like the most well-thought out scam. I guess the problem with yolo'ing 0 dte options is that when it hits the straw man is liable to check the balance and then want to keep the account. Still amusing to me that these guys seem to have the full weight of the government coming down on them for what is kinda peanuts in the markets. Can we get some prosecution on large scale insider trading?
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Nov 1, 2023 05:18
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Baddog posted:Can we get some prosecution on large scale insider trading? Not with a presidential election right at a year out lmao.
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Nov 1, 2023 05:34
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I'm not sure that it's actually practical or desirable to go for large scale insider trading unless you are incredibly dumb (like what Shrekeli tried), but that there are 100% consistent smaller ops going on all the time and only the stupid ones get caught. I know a bunch of people that work in trade/messaging surveillance software and have gone drinking with them and the compliance officers they work with and compliance people get super pissed off if you say things like "well you know you only catch the stupid ones right?" and "how would you catch messages through channels you cannot monitor such as steganography, writing it on a whiteboard near the window or proton mail or whatever". Basically I think you'd need total knowledge of both sides for surveillance to be effective enough to catch insider trading through correlation, which is impossible across market participants, so unless you're clearing trades or the person doing it is putting on *massive* outlier trades that the exchange catches there logically must be constant low level manipulation going on. Money Laundering etc. Is "easier" to catch. However, insider trading does give us very funny stories when people are tipping off their golf caddy who then loudly talks about it on public transport or whatever, so I fully support efforts to catch it. Also, Fauxton get in here and correct my bullshit please.
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Nov 1, 2023 09:42
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Powerful Two-Hander posted:I know a bunch of people that work in trade/messaging surveillance software and have gone drinking with them and the compliance officers they work with and compliance people get super pissed off if you say things like "well you know you only catch the stupid ones right?" and "how would you catch messages through channels you cannot monitor such as steganography, writing it on a whiteboard near the window or proton mail or whatever". I think their compliance peeps may be bad at compliance or general thinking, because of course you only catch the ones stupid enough to be found and there are absolutely people out there who commit perfect financial crimes. I work in compliance at what is called an EMI in Europe and maybe would be described as a narrow bank in the US. I will readily admit that we probably have people on the books who do such a great job at fooling us that we will never catch them, and they do it so well that no judge or regulator will ever hold us liable for it as long as we follow our own policies. Given enough time though, most of them will mess up at some point. golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/numetal_moment/status/1719447098037612619 Fednow kind of fixes this, but unfortunately too many banks have built an entire business on reordering all non-instant transactions in a way that fucks over their account holders to their own benefit, so they have a great incentive to never implement it
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Nov 1, 2023 11:53
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mrmcd posted:".... to steal millions of dollars from a global financial services company based in Menlo Park, California." Can i get clarification on who this is ?
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Nov 1, 2023 12:03
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Robinhood
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Nov 1, 2023 12:06
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Powerful Two-Hander posted:I'm not sure that it's actually practical or desirable to go for large scale insider trading unless you are incredibly dumb (like what Shrekeli tried), but that there are 100% consistent smaller ops going on all the time and only the stupid ones get caught. Usually when I read about them catching someone insider trading and they aren't outright dumb enough to write in an email "Hello Buddy, let's do some insider trading crimes. This stock is gonna go up on Tuesday buy a shitload and let's split the profit", it's the following order of events: 1. Insider very carefully tips co-conspirator without leaving records. 2. Co-conspirator buys a shitload of short term otm options without ever having traded before. 3. Government sees that trade and goes "HMMMMM that's weird let's go have a chat with that guy" 4. Co-conspirator either confesses immediately, or 5 minutes after their chat sends recorded texts or emails to insider with "HEY EMERGENCY the government is asking about all the crimes we did what to do???" 4a. (alternate) it is discovered that after getting info from insider, co-conspirator immediately tells 40 other people on email/text/discord "just got a great tip who wants to get rich doing crimes????" There was a case a while back where someone hacked one of the big services for publishing corporate press releases, and they had access to draft press releases about earnings results before the company formally published them. The interesting part was the hackers actually resisted the urge to just yolo on options they just quietly made 10% on regular long cash accounts every few weeks. Nobody had any clue and they only discovered it because the hack and backdoor access got found out.
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Nov 1, 2023 12:46
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Upgrade posted:I live in a nice part of my city that hasn’t has good buildable lots in 100 years. The “new construction” is literally in an alley, on a tiny tiny plot, where the house goes up five stories and sells for a million dollars. And they sell them before they break ground. I live in an affluent suburb with a lot of old homes (100+ year old) and new building is very rare. It only happens when someone with a large lot subdivides it. Then some developer builds a McMansion style monstrosity on it that takes up most of the yard
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Nov 1, 2023 12:53
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Don't forget "co conspirator handles it carefully but also tells his idiot brother who tells is brother in law who tells the pool boy", there was one recently where the guy was tipping off his private pilot, his actual golf caddy etc. Exactly as you say with the hacking example, if people are disciplined about it you can get away with it for a long time (in my opinion anyway). Also there is a gag that if compliance officers were any good at detecting insider dealing they'd be out there doing it themselves.
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Nov 1, 2023 12:54
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There is a known value (caught insider traders) and an unknown value (uncaught ones) and the argument is over the ratio of those which is just unknowable?
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Nov 1, 2023 13:02
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mrmcd posted:There was a case a while back where someone hacked one of the big services for publishing corporate press releases, and they had access to draft press releases about earnings results before the company formally published them. The interesting part was the hackers actually resisted the urge to just yolo on options they just quietly made 10% on regular long cash accounts every few weeks. Nobody had any clue and they only discovered it because the hack and backdoor access got found out. What you learn in cyber security is that 90% of hackers have no idea how to do it well because of the 10% who write code, most who are any good at it end up just working for the local spooks, so only people who can't get a job in the Intel/counterintel world freelance write exploits to sell to criminals. Most of the scarry sophisticated stuff is either ripped straight off a cyber security doctoral thesis or someone else's government. Governments don't need to hold up liquor stores with their shiny toys. Most government are perfectly capable of extracting money from banks and businesses directly. Most cybercriminals bought or stole a Saturday night special equivalent bit of code for small potatoes robberies. Or are just bricking a window.
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Nov 1, 2023 13:16
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Regular trading activity seems necessary to cover up insider trading. I’ve had one situation where I knew MNPI two days before a corporate event, but what could I do? All my money is in index funds and buying options or shares of a specific company would be the easiest flag ever. Waiting for the day a finance bro communicated earnings clues by getting an expensive menu add on at dinner or something.
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Nov 1, 2023 13:49
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Democratic Pirate posted:Waiting for the day a finance bro communicated earnings clues by getting an expensive menu add on at dinner or something. Wasn’t it a thing where people knew a major event was going to happen because of all the late night pizza delivery? Or is that just an urban legend.
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Nov 1, 2023 14:40
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Barrel Cactaur posted:What you learn in cyber security is that 90% of hackers have no idea how to do it well because of the 10% who write code, most who are any good at it end up just working for the local spooks, so only people who can't get a job in the Intel/counterintel world freelance write exploits to sell to criminals. Most of the scarry sophisticated stuff is either ripped straight off a cyber security doctoral thesis or someone else's government. Governments don't need to hold up liquor stores with their shiny toys. Most government are perfectly capable of extracting money from banks and businesses directly. There's a middle ground of (relatively) sophisticated attackers that go after enterprises, like the MGM breach a few months ago that shut down the casino floor and room keys. There's enough money to be made from organized crime that they can attract talent, but yeah some of them have at least tacit approval if not support from state actors. This was apparently the vector used for the MGM thing, along with some social engineering. https://www.mandiant.com/resources/blog/alphv-ransomware-backup Nowhere near what a government can do for sure, but not entirely a joke.
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Nov 1, 2023 14:42
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lifg posted:Wasn’t it a thing where people knew a major event was going to happen because of all the late night pizza delivery? Or is that just an urban legend. that was a pentagon thing
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Nov 1, 2023 14:43
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bob dobbs is dead posted:that was a pentagon thing It's also from a Tom Clancy novel and not a real thing.
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Nov 1, 2023 14:44
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https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/yw8080/pizza_place_near_the_pentagon_is_busier_than/ 3pm, but still (hotlinking because that one sub doesnt give a gently caress) (i also apologize for the fuckin degeneracy)
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Nov 1, 2023 14:53
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:There's a middle ground of (relatively) sophisticated attackers that go after enterprises, like the MGM breach a few months ago that shut down the casino floor and room keys. There's enough money to be made from organized crime that they can attract talent, but yeah some of them have at least tacit approval if not support from state actors. The joke is 90% of cyber security is a paper tiger backed up with huge budget and process shortfalls
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Nov 1, 2023 14:58
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Baddog posted:Yah this doesn't seem like the most well-thought out scam. Says they recruited "dozens" of people, ran the scam for 4 years, and made off with 2 million. Seems like a pretty lovely return. I mean, even if the four main conspirators were paying those dozens in exposure, 125k per year per person is a weak loving scam. (And if you really want to insider-trade what you want to do is get elected to Congress.)
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Nov 1, 2023 15:17
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Phanatic posted:Says they recruited "dozens" of people, ran the scam for 4 years, and made off with 2 million. If you only needed to get to state congress it wouldn't be that hard.
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Nov 1, 2023 15:22
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Barrel Cactaur posted:The joke is 90% of cyber security is a paper tiger backed up with huge budget and process shortfalls It's true, it pays well but I'm hella disorganized
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Nov 1, 2023 16:08
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Don't forget about angry (ex-)spouse narcing to the feds the moment they find they're being cheated on, or in the heat of an argument. Like the woman screaming "He got weed! He got weed!" in that Chris Rock skit.
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Nov 1, 2023 16:08
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quote:4 Week Treasury Bills -- Is interest annualized? quote:It’s always annual. If we all could get 5% return on our investment in only four weeks, don’t you think everyone would be buying four week T bills by the truckload? quote:Yes rates are always annualized . A 30 year bond paying 3.5% does not mean you make 3.5% over 30 years it means you make 3.5% per year. quote:
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Nov 1, 2023 20:09
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That's a pretty tame lesson learned, honestly.
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Nov 2, 2023 01:39
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