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So it's over then. Feggans is up over 2.5% and they're done counting all but 1%
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Nov 8, 2023 05:15
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I was cautiously optimistic that tonight would be a pretty good night, but we (As in the general community of people who are sane) are doing a lot better than even I optimistically hoped for. Also we had the most incredible wrong thread post I can remember, which is just  I do wish we had Governor Elvis but, I mean, Mississippi even being within ten points is uhhh not a super sign for the GOP nationwide.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:16
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Shammypants posted:So it's over then. Feggans is done counting all but 1% Yup https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1722105695934333153?s=20
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Nov 8, 2023 05:16
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Pobrecito posted:"its just another outlier! its just another outlier!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob It seems very unlikely that Trump is going to increase his share of the black vote by 350% of what he got in 2016 and nearly triple the best previous Republican performance among black voters in history. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 06:05 on Nov 8, 2023 |
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Nov 8, 2023 05:21
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Tonight was a bloodbath. Adequate is right, MS being within 10 points is a gap that can be crossed. Repeated quality candidates, focusing on local issues, and so on.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:21
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The Lone Badger posted:We're headed for the comedy universe where Trump is president but the dems hold both the House and the Senate. Wasn’t this setup what got us things like expanded child care tax credit, student loan pause, thousands of dollars in cash to every working adult, and a ton of other progressive poo poo? I kinda doubt Americans are stupid or forgetful enough to ignore the fact that the Dems were constantly talking about things like DC/PR statehood, reparations, green new deal, and lots of big sweeping changes when the last guy was sitting in the Oval Office. Since Biden was elected none of those things were ever mentioned again 
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Nov 8, 2023 05:21
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NJ Democrats put a hurting on the Republicans for the state house. Control was never really in doubt but Rs were looking to cut into the margin and now the D will expand their hold.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:23
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BUUNNI posted:Wasn’t this setup what got us things like expanded child care tax credit, student loan pause, thousands of dollars in cash to every working adult, and a ton of other progressive poo poo? Pretty sure the Republicans would rather commit suicide en masse than run on any of these things.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:24
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No no, Trump is the real progressive and Manchin and Sinema didn't have unlimited veto power for the first two years, it's an extremely intelligent analysis
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Nov 8, 2023 05:25
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Santorum is having a big sad on Nerwsmax saying "Democracy is no way to run things" and being mad that Dems put abortion and weed on the Ohio ballot, as they are "Very sexy things" https://twitter.com/KailiJoy/status/1722092778266546587
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Nov 8, 2023 05:26
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BUUNNI posted:Wasn’t this setup what got us things like expanded child care tax credit, student loan pause, thousands of dollars in cash to every working adult, and a ton of other progressive poo poo? It's true Biden has never mentioned student loans once his entire time in office
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Nov 8, 2023 05:28
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CapnAndy posted:No no, Trump is the real progressive and Manchin and Sinema didn't have unlimited veto power for the first two years, it's an extremely intelligent analysis No, Trump is a bumbling authoritarian fool but he was the president when Americans got all that amazing free government stuff that would be unthinkable just a few years before. Zoph posted:Pretty sure the Republicans would rather commit suicide en masse than run on any of these things. They’re not going to run on it, their voter base consists mostly of hateful small business owners, car dealership scions, and assorted proud-boy types that recoil in horror at the kind of stuff Dems talk about whenever Trump was in charge. FCKGW posted:It's true Biden has never mentioned student loans once his entire time in office Yea but ultimately what people will likely remember is how helpful it was to have the loans put on pause while and how lovely it was to see them restart and who was in charge while both those things happened. BUUNNI fucked around with this message at 05:36 on Nov 8, 2023 |
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Nov 8, 2023 05:33
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I do hope that "Biden has said nothing about student loans" was some sort of sarcasm. FFS he just released the rough draft of his second (longer, more govt bs involved) attempt to forgive student loans on top of introducing the SAVE IDR, which will do far more than a 1 time shot at student loan forgiveness, and putting gas in the student defense program that Trump's Sec of Ed practically ignored.
killer_robot fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Nov 8, 2023 |
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Nov 8, 2023 05:34
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I just now remembered the Dems offered to let Trump do a lot of things they eventually wound up doing with the American Rescue Plan right before the Election, but McConnell said no and Trump changed his mind. He literally could have sent out another round of checks with his name on them just as the election was on the home stretch, but didn't. Same with Infrastructure Week and the "Chuck and Nancy" meeting that briefly looked like Trump could take credit for an Infrastructure Bill, but then McConnell said no and that was that. On some level it's gotta urk Trump that Biden got to do all that instead of him. He could have had so many ribbon cuttings and pretended to drive so many bulldozers!
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Nov 8, 2023 05:37
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I am happy good things happened today.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:38
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killer_robot posted:You forgot the killer virus that was offing people by the millions. I don’t think the virus went anywhere though 
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Nov 8, 2023 05:38
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GoutPatrol posted:I am happy good things happened today. As someone affected by the good things that happened today, me too!
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Nov 8, 2023 05:40
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BUUNNI posted:I don’t think the virus went anywhere though A loving lot of people did though. And for some reason the anti-vax walk-off-the-plague party took the worse of it.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:43
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Somehow I seriously doubt many people who have been bombarded with four years of "Biden wants to forgive those freeloaders' loans, STOP HIM!" with updates on how conservative courts and Republican officials fight the ongoing forgiveness and payment reform are going to go in on Election Day and think, "Yeah, that Biden guy is to blame for this!" Barring those who just want to rehabilitate Trump, there's always plenty of "Vote R to save your Social Security and Medicare!" stuff.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:50
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Let me also remind everyone that we're all talking about an off off year election. When the party in power is supposed to get clobbered. Alaska in play in 2024? We'll see, we'll see.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:55
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It's becoming pretty clear that the GOP rallying behind Trump has turned into a lot of people being enthusiastic to vote for Trump who don't give two shits about voting for anyone else in the Republican party. Once Trump shuffles off this lovely Earth they're gonna have a real rough couple years.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:57
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Killer robot posted:Somehow I seriously doubt many people who have been bombarded with four years of "Biden wants to forgive those freeloaders' loans, STOP HIM!" with updates on how conservative courts and Republican officials fight the ongoing forgiveness and payment reform are going to go in on Election Day and think, "Yeah, that Biden guy is to blame for this!" Barring those who just want to rehabilitate Trump, there's always plenty of "Vote R to save your Social Security and Medicare!" stuff. I think at a deeper level people who are affected by this or know someone who is affected will also recall that there was a prolonged pause for all student debtors, no matter what amount they owed, versus what debtors ended up (not) getting later, which was iirc like $10k max. Also I don’t think it’s possible for anyone to rehabilitate someone like Trump, fwiw. Anyway there seems to be a student loan thread so my apologies for this derail.
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Nov 8, 2023 05:59
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Elvis's cousin is going down in Mississippi, but he held the incumbent Republican governor to 6 points. Pretty impressive for a campaign run almost entirely on a gimmick.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:00
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Elvis's cousin is going down in Mississippi, but he held the incumbent Republican governor to 5 points. Pretty impressive for a campaign run almost entirely on a gimmick. Yeah Mississippi dems didn't win. But they're in actual striking distance in some places. Basically things are going great for the GOP and MAGA right now.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:01
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BUUNNI posted:Wasn’t this setup what got us things like expanded child care tax credit, student loan pause, thousands of dollars in cash to every working adult, and a ton of other progressive poo poo? I don't think the Dems were constantly talking about reparations or a Green New Deal. In fact, I believe the latter was a proposal by a single House Dem. As for DC statehood, that's already been passed by the House twice (2019, 2021), and has been introduced to the Senate with 45 cosponsors three times (2019, 2021, 2023). A far cry from "never mentioned again". I'm not going to bother googling PR statehood because I think the point has been pretty well made already.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:02
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Yeah Mississippi dems didn't win. But they're in actual striking distance in some places. How is a runoff not possible?
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Nov 8, 2023 06:05
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Shammypants posted:How is a runoff not possible? Reeve's is at 52% right now. Seems very likely he will beat the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:06
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Reeve's is at 52% right now. Seems very likely he will beat the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. But the fact that it's even that close in MISSISSIPPI combined with Dem wins in Kentucky, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio? Uhh yeah, kinda feel like that says a lot more than polls. We've now had 4 election cycles of some scale (2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023) where Trump, Trump endorsed people, and the ideals that the GOP currently runs on have gotten pretty much loving obliterated anywhere that's not the reddest of the red and/or gerrymandered to gently caress. And oh, this also presumes that the four, count 'em, four, criminal trials upcoming next year won't hurt Trump at all, or that the civil judgment won't hurt his political war chest. Heavy doubt on those things, too.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:15
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SamuraiFoochs posted:But the fact that it's even that close in MISSISSIPPI combined with Dem wins in Kentucky, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio? People vote differently in Presidential elections and a year is a long time for lots to happen in the world/politics. I wouldn't make any hard and fast predictions this far out. Some of the recent polls are definitely outliers (Trump is not going to pull nearly 30% of the black vote and win the under 35 vote), but all the polls in general indicate a close race. I'd still give Biden an edge assuming current trends and history, but it is crazy to think that Trump can't win. Polls also say that there are a large chunk of voters who are supporting Trump right now, but say they won't support him if he is convicted of a felony, so I have no idea how those people are making their decisions. There's a lot of fluid things and Trump is the least popular politician in America right now, but Biden is just barely in front of him and the #2 least popular politician.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:20
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SamuraiFoochs posted:But the fact that it's even that close in MISSISSIPPI combined with Dem wins in Kentucky, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio? While there's a lot to be uneasy about going into 2024, when I see someone confidently proclaiming doom for the Democrats I've made a habit of trying to figure out if they also predicted the same doom in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Since I've come to realize a lot of people have really crappy political instincts.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:21
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:People vote differently in Presidential elections and a year is a long time for lots to happen in the world/politics. I wouldn't make any hard and fast predictions this far out. Some of the recent polls are definitely outliers (Trump is not going to pull nearly 30% of the black vote and win the under 35 vote), but all the polls in general indicate a close race. I'd still give Biden an edge assuming current trends and history, but it is crazy to think that Trump can't win. You think ABORTION AND Trump is going to help the GOP in 2024? I think we all just learned the polls are pretty poo poo my dude. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Nov 8, 2023 |
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Nov 8, 2023 06:23
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Not to repeat myself, but CapnAndy posted:I hate being on True The Vote territory, but I don't think any polls can be trusted in an age where anyone under 45 would rather pick up a live, unpinned grenade than a phone call from an unknown number.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:26
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killer_robot posted:I do hope that "Biden has said nothing about student loans" was some sort of sarcasm. FFS he just released the rough draft of his second (longer, more govt bs involved) attempt to forgive student loans on top of introducing the SAVE IDR, which will do far more than a 1 time shot at student loan forgiveness, and putting gas in the student defense program that Trump's Sec of Ed practically ignored. I will say that his new student loan forgiveness plan targets a fraction of a fraction of the people that the original plan would. It's kind of nothing for 95% of student loan borrowers.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:32
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TulliusCicero posted:You think ABORTION AND Trump is going to help the GOP in 2024? No, but people vote differently in presidential elections vs. off-year/ballot measures. Ohio just voted ~57% to legalize weed and protect abortion, but I would bet you a large amount of money they will also elect Trump and send nearly 2/3 of their congressional seats to Republicans next year. People protest vote against the incumbent when they feel things are going badly. There is pretty consistent polling that people are doing better economically now and real income is higher than it was pre-pandemic, but only by a few percentage points and people psychologically can see that prices are high in a way that is more direct than recognizing that their relative income is worth about 3% more now than it was in 2019. When you ask people want they want, they want prices to go down, but that isn't going to happen (and mass deflation would actually be a very bad thing), so a large chunk of people won't be happy that prices aren't going to go down and it will take a few years to settle in to the new normal with prices and wages like it always does. But, Biden is running for re-election next year and not in a few years. Lots of people aren't rational in either direction when it comes to presidential election. A bunch of people say they are voting for Trump, but they will switch to Biden if Trump is convicted of a felony. Why? A bunch of traditional Democratic voters also claim they are going to vote for RFK Jr, despite disagreeing with most of his policies and the fact that he probably won't even be on the ballot in many states. Trump and Biden are both very unpopular. A year is a huge amount of time. I wouldn't make any definitive predictions one way or the other. I think it is probably a 60/40 Biden race, but it was a 75/25 Clinton race in 2016 and even though 40% is less than 60% it is still a very real possibility.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:No, but people vote differently in presidential elections vs. off-year/ballot measures. Ohio just voted ~57% to legalize weed and protect abortion, but I would bet you a large amount of money they will also elect Trump and send nearly 2/3 of their congressional seats to Republicans next year. I never once indicated it was literally impossible for Trump to win. What I said was he'd have to buck the trends of four elections that've occurred since he became President, the polls that've released all need to be right, and it needs to presume that all of the legal stuff facing him won't significantly damage his electability, either popularity-wise and/or finances-wise. That's not me remotely saying it's impossible. But a LOT of extremely unlikely poo poo all needs to go his way for him to have a shot. Also the fact that you cite 2016 as evidence is spurious at best because Trump only won then because he was an unknown quantity and there were a lot of "eh gently caress it give him a shot" voters. Since then he's gone further right on deeply unpopular opinions, been publicly insane for 8 years, and been absolutely snowed under by legal proceedings. SamuraiFoochs fucked around with this message at 06:49 on Nov 8, 2023 |
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Nov 8, 2023 06:41
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Polls also say that there are a large chunk of voters who are supporting Trump right now, but say they won't support him if he is convicted of a felony, so I have no idea how those people are making their decisions. Those people are lying for the most part. "I support Trump in 2023 after the avalanche of lies and criminality he's obviously committed but if he gets convicted I won't vote for him" is just not a big group of people. Enough to knock him down a couple points? Sure. Enough to produce a 1984 Mondale style rear end whooping? No way. No chance.
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Nov 8, 2023 06:54
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Those people are lying for the most part. "I support Trump in 2023 after the avalanche of lies and criminality he's obviously committed but if he gets convicted I won't vote for him" is just not a big group of people. Enough to knock him down a couple points? Sure. Enough to produce a 1984 Mondale style rear end whooping? No way. No chance. I mean agreed, but even if it's a couple points, that's a couple points he can't afford.
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Nov 8, 2023 07:00
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it's a reminder about how brokebrained the entire world is today that we just know in our bones that trump going to federal prison for attempting a literal coup will, as everything before it, not break his absolute dominance of conservative support, ever, forever. like if i time travelled back to 2005 or something and told people this is just how you have to view the country and politics now they'd put me in a home
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Nov 8, 2023 07:01
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SamuraiFoochs posted:I mean agreed, but even if it's a couple points, that's a couple points he can't afford. Yeah absolutely - those 1 or 2 points can/will make all the difference. It will be an wild to watch 45% of voters cast a ballot for someone convicted of attempting to overthrow the US government but it's almost certainly going to happen.
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Nov 8, 2023 07:09
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Trump literally in jail or something can have a lot of knock-on effects. Even if it doesn't disrupt his nomination you might see things ranging from other Republicans openly planning for a post-Trump party and gaining the ire of Trumpists, to alternatives trying an independent bid (including hopeful MAGA successors promising to free him and jail his oppressors), to swing states actually pulling him from the ballot. All of which also have effects on the downballot races. It doesn't need to convince Trump lovers to turn on Trump to put us into seriously unknown territory.
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Nov 8, 2023 07:35
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