|
the senate is actually very favorable for the gop next year so i dont know about that
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 17:43 |
|
|
HallelujahLee posted:the senate is actually very favorable for the gop next year so i dont know about that Oh I know, it should be impossible. But the Dems keep seeming to win on abortion, so... 
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:05
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I honestly think we may be headed for a situation in which the Dems take both houses of Congress by a healthy margin but Trump absolutely crushes Biden. Which would be the funniest outcome, so that's where we're headed. there's still a world where neither are the nominee and i think i prefer that kind of chaos
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:05
|
|
|
the funniest outcome would still be hillary winning somehow
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:06
|
|
|
pencilhands posted:the funniest outcome would still be hillary winning somehow I mean if Biden steps down or whatever that's far from the least-likely outcome.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:07
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Oh I know, it should be impossible. But the Dems keep seeming to win on abortion, so... yeah but that isnt the only thing on a ballot in 2024 national is alot different than local stuff
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:07
|
|
|
National is different, but American voters tend to vote way more on domestic policy than foreign, which is sad because holy poo poo is our foreign policy awful and literally world-ending. So it's gonna be a rerun of 2022, I think - abortion takes the forefront unless there is a dramatic 2008-style stock market crash.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:11
|
|
|
another year of a garbage economy i dont know maybe and genocide supporting but yeah who knows
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:12
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Oh I know, it should be impossible. But the Dems keep seeming to win on abortion, so... No it's actually impossible. I don't think there is a single state where the Democratic Party even stands a chance of a Senate pick up:  Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and West Virginia are all very likely pick ups for the GOP. Even 2026 looks pretty bad for the Democratic Party:  What are the best-case pick up opportunities in either election? Maybe Maine in 2026? It looks like all defense to me. Democrats aren't going to be able to accomplish jack poo poo at the congressional level even if their wildest dreams come true. The best case scenario is stopping bad things from happening. B B has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Nov 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:13
|
|
|
even the house is looking 50-50 but if trump wins and they take the senate it doesnt matter anyway
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:17
|
|
|
B B posted:No it's actually impossible. I don't think there is a single state where the Democratic Party even stands a chance of a Senate pick up: The logical part of my brain says you're right about this, buuuuuut...I think there's a greater-than-zero chance that the Republicans hosed up so massively with the Dobbs decision that they've made the impossible possible. quote:Democrats aren't going to be able to accomplish jack poo poo at the congressional level even if their wildest dreams come true. The best case scenario is stopping bad things from happening. Of course not, we're all on the same page about that.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:21
|
|
|
not accomplishing jack poo poo on the congressional level is their preference, obviously.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:26
|
|
|
Majorian posted:The logical part of my brain says you're right about this, buuuuuut...I think there's a greater-than-zero chance that the Republicans hosed up so massively with the Dobbs decision that they've made the impossible possible. What states do you think are at risk? I'm not trying to be an rear end in a top hat. Genuinely interested in which GOP states you think might be at risk over the next couple of cycles. I clearly haven't fully grappled with the damage that the abortion issue has done to the GOP. Majorian posted:Of course not, we're all on the same page about that. gimme the GOD drat candy posted:not accomplishing jack poo poo on the congressional level is their preference, obviously. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:30
|
|
|
honestly i think the map looks fine for dems if trump's not on the ballot. there could be a significant voter revolt/abstention in that case. if he runs i think they take the senate
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:34
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:34
|
|
|
i dont see a case where he isnt unless he dies of course before then
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:40
|
|
|
B B posted:What states do you think are at risk? I'm not trying to be an rear end in a top hat. Genuinely interested in which GOP states you think might be at risk over the next couple of cycles. I clearly haven't fully grappled with the damage that the abortion issue has done to the GOP. I honestly haven't looked into it very deeply at all. This has all just been a hot take.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:40
|
|
|
B B posted:What states do you think are at risk? I'm not trying to be an rear end in a top hat. Genuinely interested in which GOP states you think might be at risk over the next couple of cycles. I clearly haven't fully grappled with the damage that the abortion issue has done to the GOP. if things are really bad for the gop texas
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:48
|
|
|
mississippi's governor is uniquely unpopular but still ran it closer than he should have this timepencilhands posted:if things are really bad for the gop texas there's a chance but i think the dems will nominate a subpar candidate and will still lose by six
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 05:50
|
|
|
hillary/jeb would win 538 electoral votes regardless of party
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 07:25
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I honestly haven't looked into it very deeply at all. This has all just been a hot take. another great feature of the senate is since the races are staggered it means sometimes an election year has no reasonable chance of changing the makeup of the senate either way if it’s just all deep blue/red states voting
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 07:25
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:mississippi's governor is uniquely unpopular but still ran it closer than he should have this time that’s betos music
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 07:39
|
|
|
We can push Biden left on the genocide issue once we've defeated fascism
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 09:30
|
|
|
I predict Trump will keep his mouth shut on abortion besides the vaguest statements on how he respects life when people try to coax an answer out of him. He’s already gone on the record saying Dobbs went too far, but I doubt the religious right will stay home over it. I just don’t see the next year going well for Biden, in between two wars that are bound to be lost and an increasingly lovely economy. On paper that sounds like enough to sink an incumbent. Carter and Herbert Walker Bush lost over less. Dobbs seems to have really fired up voters and spooked moderates though, and they haven’t let their guard down yet. My opinion as the world’s shittiest tealeaf reader is that it’s an open question if that’s gonna be enough to save Joe’s bacon.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 16:37
|
|
|
Its tough, never underestimate the lack of shame of republican voters but I think the multiple indictments including stuff thats like very easy for the average person to understand financial crimes are going to spook a fair few moderates too. Not the cult that will vote for him in the primary, but I think he'll be a little weaker in the general then other circumstances warrant.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 17:00
|
|
|
LionYeti posted:Its tough, never underestimate the lack of shame of republican voters but I think the multiple indictments including stuff thats like very easy for the average person to understand financial crimes are going to spook a fair few moderates too. Not the cult that will vote for him in the primary, but I think he'll be a little weaker in the general then other circumstances warrant. Lol
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 17:08
|
|
|
LionYeti posted:Its tough, never underestimate the lack of shame of republican voters but I think the multiple indictments including stuff thats like very easy for the average person to understand financial crimes are going to spook a fair few moderates too. Not the cult that will vote for him in the primary, but I think he'll be a little weaker in the general then other circumstances warrant. d&d is that way
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 17:09
|
|
|
LionYeti posted:Its tough, never underestimate the lack of shame of republican voters but I think the multiple indictments including stuff thats like very easy for the average person to understand financial crimes are going to spook a fair few moderates too. Not the cult that will vote for him in the primary, but I think he'll be a little weaker in the general then other circumstances warrant. I think most people will remember the 1200 check with trump's signature on it and remember that they lost child tax credits & Medicaid under Biden and that will be it. If they even vote at all
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 17:11
|
|
|
LionYeti posted:Its tough, never underestimate the lack of shame of republican voters but I think the multiple indictments including stuff thats like very easy for the average person to understand financial crimes are going to spook a fair few moderates too. Not the cult that will vote for him in the primary, but I think he'll be a little weaker in the general then other circumstances warrant. nobody cares about the indictments beyond some insane shitlibs and morons in the trump thread if anything they're aiding him with the gop
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 18:39
|
|
|
not true. I care about the indictments because I think it will be hilarious for him to be in jail and be the nominee or be in jail and the party yanks it from him. either way will be great as long as he can Post, I guess
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 18:40
|
|
|
most people will have forgotten everything that trump did and remember that everything at the grocery store got twice as expensive while biden was in charge and also that he's materially supporting a foreign genocide
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 18:40
|
|
|
while funny the odds of jail is very very very low
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 18:43
|
|
|
I'll be disappointed if Trump wins from prison when Debs couldn't.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 18:50
|
|
|
So if Trump goes to jail does that mean his secret service protection goes to jail too? Or do they do the time for him like when a bodyguard takes a bullet for their guy?
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 18:58
|
|
|
Halloween Jack posted:I'll be disappointed if Trump wins from prison when Debs couldn't. I'll be pogging.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 19:00
|
|
|
trump's indictment is going to end up as much of a thing as hillary's emails, a wet fart of nothing but people who hate him will cling to it forever anyway
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 19:00
|
|
|
Javid posted:trump's indictment is going to end up as much of a thing as hillary's emails, a wet fart of nothing but people who hate him will cling to it forever anyway I'm reminded of the tax returns
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 19:13
|
|
|
i don't think the indictments will change anyone's mind. trump has and will continue to use them as proof that he is being persecuted. it doesn't hurt that he's mostly correct about this, as usually he wouldn't face any repercussions for his many, many crimes.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 19:16
|
|
|
Halloween Jack posted:I'll be disappointed if Trump wins from prison when Debs couldn't. no, it's very fitting (demon cracker nation)
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 19:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 17:43 |
|
|
The best outcome of a Trump victory will be renewed interest in Grover Cleveland. I look forward to the Vice articles attempting to determine if Grover Cleveland had narcissistic personality disorder.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2023 19:27
|
|