USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

the_steve posted:

Yeah, sure would be silly if that were a thing that happened.

Good thing Obama didn't roll over and let the Republicans block his supreme court nominee because the entire democratic party took it as a foregone conclusion that Hillary was going to just waltz in and get to appoint two judges on day one.

Hindsight is 20/20. In 2015/early 2016 it was ludicrous that Trump was running, and was even more ludicrous that he would be the nominee. It was absolutely insane that he could actually _win_ the loving thing.

Based on that view at the time, it was logical that Obama not pick that fight over the SC and force the issue. Even then, I'm not sure how he could have forced the issue, as I don't think you can recess appoint a justice, and if the Senate refuses to vote on the matter well, how are you going to make them do something?

McConnell rolled the dice on Trump and got super lucky. Except in winning I think he long term lost. Look at all the negative impact on the GOP getting rid of RvW has done to them long term.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:25

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# ? May 24, 2024 19:39

Fork of Unknown Origins: Oct 21, 2005; Gotta Herd On?

the_steve posted:

Yeah, sure would be silly if that were a thing that happened.

Good thing Obama didn't roll over and let the Republicans block his supreme court nominee because the entire democratic party took it as a foregone conclusion that Hillary was going to just waltz in and get to appoint two judges on day one.

What could Obama have possibly done?

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:26

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

the_steve posted:

Yeah, sure would be silly if that were a thing that happened.

Good thing Obama didn't roll over and let the Republicans block his supreme court nominee because the entire democratic party took it as a foregone conclusion that Hillary was going to just waltz in and get to appoint two judges on day one.

It's a good thing that that literally did not happen, but it's a bad thing that many people took it as "vote scolding" being reminded that whoever won the election would control the courts. RBG's death was really the second plane hitting the tower for a lot of the people who thought the real question of the 2016 general was whether Hillary's inevitable victory would destroy the left forever and not, like, the real predictable events.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:27

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Main Paineframe posted:

Was Trump not in office during fall 2019 or spring 2020? I'm not sure if you misinterpreted my post, but to be clear, reparations were only in the news cycle for a couple of brief periods during the 2020 primaries, and had completely dropped out of the primary field by August 2019, six months before Super Tuesday and about fifteen months before the general election. That's a far cry from your original claim that the Dems were "constantly" talking about it on the campaign trail.

I've already described the actual specific legislative actions that have been taken toward DC statehood and reparations. I've also pointed out that the Green New Deal was the pet project of a single House member, to which you responded that it was also co-sponsored by a single senator. Also, none of these things really have anything to do with Trump or "the atrocities of the Trump administration", so it kind of feels like you're just lumping a bunch of largely unrelated grudges together into one big ball here.

Did you want the Dems to be "loudly pushing for" these issues while in control of the presidency and Congress? I have a feeling that the answer isn't really "yes". Instead, I suspect that you wanted the Dems to actually pass legislation advancing these issues, and I kinda doubt you would have been satisfied if the Dems had simply continued to talk about issues that they weren't passing. Instead, the Dems chose to spend their majority talking about other very progressive policies and goals that they thought they could actually pass bills for with the numbers they had.

So which is more important here? Healthcare or abortion? The last time pre-Biden that the Dems held the presidency and usable majorities in the House and Senate, they decided that it was more important to pass healthcare reforms which would have an immediate positive impact on a large number of people, rather than passing "just in case this Supreme Court ruling gets overturned someday" laws which would have had little to no immediate impact. And personally, I find it hard to say that they had the wrong priorities there. In the face of a difficult Congress that made passing anything slow going, they chose to focus on issues that were hurting people right then, rather than futureproofing against a potential future change in the composition of the Supreme Court.

It's certainly true that the Obama administration was completely unprepared for the sheer unreliability of the Blue Dogs and the sheer extent of GOP obstructionism under McConnell, and ended up largely squandering a rather decent majority as a result. But even 59 senators wouldn't have been enough to codify Roe into law unless they circumvented the filibuster. And if the Dems circumvented the filibuster to codify Roe, then codifying Roe wouldn't have saved abortion, because without the filibuster, the same GOP trifecta that appointed anti-abortion Supreme Court judges would also have been able to repeal that codification of Roe.

But when Roe was overturned and abortion rights were actually in danger, the Dems did hold a vote on an abortion rights bill that went well beyond just codifying Roe. Even though they knew it wouldn't pass, they dragged the bill to the floor and made everyone vote on it just to get on the record just who was for abortion rights and who was against them.

Barack Obama who calls Reinhold Niebuhr his favorite philosopher failed to understand the class analysis of the privileged classes and the need to meet power with power clearly identified in Moral Man and Immoral Society.

His first irony is was failing recognize foundational conclusions of the beliefs he publicly advised to hold. His second irony is his failure to be aware of and looking for irony which is the mode of critique advanced by Reinhold Niebuhr in the Irony of American History.

I�m working on an effort thread on it, and a analysis of Moral Man and Immoral Society.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:33

Aztec Galactus: Sep 12, 2002

Thankfully Democrats have learned from their mistakes and will never again rally behind a subpar candidate believing their victory is inevitable

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:33

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Every democrat on the planet is quaking in their boots and pissing themselves in terror about Biden's polling; there's just nothing to be done about it except hope the polls are wrong or that they move when Trump is on the news 24/7 running on the platform of "I won the 2020 election".

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:34

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

Dapper_Swindler posted:

I think another reason they ate poo poo is because they didnt do any of the boring busy work thats involved. they just wanted to do chud version of cultural revolution and hurt LGBTQ kids and thats not popula espcially when its very very clear your not doing your basic job like making sure the schools have like janitorial staff or special ed gets funded and etc etc.

I read somewhere about this that used the phrasing "Republicans are not running public relations to help their political campaigns, they're running their political campaigns to help their public relations programs." and it's really stuck with me. The only way to survive the knife fight in a telephone booth that is a Republican primary is to be the most loudmouthed, crude rear end in a top hat screaming more of the hatred and anger that the base wants than the other campaigns are. That ends up self-selecting for a political party of loud mouthed, crude assholes that don't want to accomplish anything they just want to scream more of the hatred and anger that the base wants so they can stay on top of the pile and keep the attention to themselves. Talking about issues or fixing problems or passing legislation are distant secondary concerns, at best. Screw the actual work of governance. That doesn't get, and keep for you, a job. Trumpism and the base demand ever more two-minutes-hate rituals and purity testing to identify who needs to be cast out for apostasy and what today's targeted minority is.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:37

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

zoux posted:

Every democrat on the planet is quaking in their boots and pissing themselves in terror about Biden's polling; there's just nothing to be done about it except hope the polls are wrong or that they move when Trump is on the news 24/7 running on the platform of "I won the 2020 election".

I do wonder if people have just forgotten how annoying and toxic Trump is since he hasn�t been on Twitter in almost 3 years

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:40

Shooting Blanks: Jun 6, 2007; Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade

FlamingLiberal posted:

I do wonder if people have just forgotten how annoying and toxic Trump is since he hasn�t been on Twitter in almost 3 years

He's only toxic and annoying to people who already aren't going to vote for him. To his supporters, he is the golden calf. It's easy to forget, but there were a lot of interviews with his supporters that said things like "I don't like his personal morals, but I can't vote for anyone else." or "I don't like how he treats women, but I have to vote for him because anyone else is terrible for America."

Being toxic and annoying is a feature, not a bug, to Trump's supporters - the miscalculation was that he'd won over enough of America to ride it to a second term.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:43

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

FlamingLiberal posted:

I do wonder if people have just forgotten how annoying and toxic Trump is since he hasn�t been on Twitter in almost 3 years

And he will also be in the middle of three separate felony criminal trials the whole time.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:45

Bodyholes: Jun 30, 2005

the_steve posted:

Yeah, sure would be silly if that were a thing that happened.

Good thing Obama didn't roll over and let the Republicans block his supreme court nominee because the entire democratic party took it as a foregone conclusion that Hillary was going to just waltz in and get to appoint two judges on day one.

Obama sucked and was a huge disappointment in countless ways but I'm not exactly sure what you want to do about it.

A large percentage of democrats suck. That's what primaries are for. Shame nobody uses them.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:48

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

single-mode fiber posted:

Yeah, I think this has been an ongoing thing for a long time, well before Trump, but which started becoming much more significant around the time of Obama's first election. That, of course, drew the ire not only of explicit racists, but also those of the "I'm not racist, But," crowd, the latter of which had been significantly less radicalized up to that point. However, coincidentally at the same time, you have a couple of technological things going on as well. Facebook only started accepting accounts from the general public in 2006, so it takes a few years for the "Republican normie" cohort to adopt the technology. The iPhone comes out in 2007, again it takes a few years for enough market penetration to get in the hands of the Republican normies. So, by let's say the early 2010s, you have a bunch of people who are upset at things (Great Financial Crisis, black president, whatever), and they also have social media with a high convenience factor (don't have to go sit at the dedicated workstation to do computer things anymore), but they have no prior experience or inoculation against bad internet behavior. Nazis had an early recognition of the power of the internet for spreading their messages, and suddenly an enormous new potential audience appeared. They started hooking people on the rhetoric dope that was too extreme for radio or TV at the time, but did still keep a lot of the messaging in dog whistles.

Mid 2010s, you can see this increasing rightward shift reflected in some of the people getting elected to office, but even groups like the House Freedom Caucus still don't exist until 2015. However, along comes Trump, whose media diet is well-documented at this point. He hasn't been the producer, the one trying to sit there and craft the perfect message, to slowly dial up the Nazism to make it palatable to the general public. He's a consumer of it, he eats it all it up, and in turn amplifies it out, to enhance his own standing and popularity. I think in a way he sort of hijacked that nascent Nazi movement because not only did he turn the dial up too fast, he won, which meant everyone else on the right had to shift even further to the right. But also, Trump doesn't care about the movement, he only cares about himself. He doesn't dream of a future where Nazis sweep the ballots and run rampant in the streets, unless that's the future where he gets to be The Big Man. If he's stripped of political power, imprisoned even, he doesn't care about the ramifications to the Nazi cause, he only cares about how mad he is.

Anyway, back to the present, the Republicans probably thought they could ride the tiger of a feral voter base made up of theocrats, fascists and their sympathizers, etc., for a lot longer, long enough to give themselves permanent structural victory. I think Trump created too much opposition to them too fast, and he also captured too much of their base to himself, and not their cause. So now they're stuck, they can't lose such a large percentage of their voter base by saying "hey actually, all we really care about is corporate tax cuts, gently caress your stupid religion, gently caress whatever you're mad about." They also can't shift the messaging effectively on these people, because they're hooked on the fascist dope; if Fox won't deliver it, they'll go to a different TV channel. If no TV channels will deliver, they'll get it from the internet. But, letting these people stick around is also electoral poison because it's mobilizing too much opposition. And, it's probably going to continue to do so, until Trump is completely gone at least, and probably also until all the in-fighting for inheritance of his mantle dies off too.

Really the politicians who view themselves as stewards of capital would be better served to align themselves with Democrats and just try to stifle progressive policies internally. 40 years ago the Republicans would've been their natural home but now they're left trying to pitch changing the tax treatment on futures contracts to people who don't care about that, and only want to know how many bombs will get dropped on Mexico.

Is the split going to remain that pronounced though? I feel like Right Wing Media is doing a great job of turning extremist positions into mainstream conservative positions for the younger generation of aggressive "pro-business" capitalists. It takes some work before socially regressive policies become obviously antithetical to the favorable economic policies that supposedly "really" matter to the stewards of capital you're talking about.

I do think there is an issue about how the base does not naturally regressive taxation structures and unrestricted outsourcing and getting rid of Social Security, but I feel like the base is very easily brainwashed into thinking that their social stances require them to be for all of that. They should be voting against themselves.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:49

Meatball: Mar 2, 2003; That's a Spicy Meatball; Pillbug

zoux posted:

And he will also be in the middle of three separate felony criminal trials the whole time.

Depending on how they go, there's a non-zero chance he's in jail on election day.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:49

Retro42: Jun 27, 2011

Shooting Blanks posted:

He's only toxic and annoying to people who already aren't going to vote for him. To his supporters, he is the golden calf. It's easy to forget, but there were a lot of interviews with his supporters that said things like "I don't like his personal morals, but I can't vote for anyone else." or "I don't like how he treats women, but I have to vote for him because anyone else is terrible for America."

Being toxic and annoying is a feature, not a bug, to Trump's supporters - the miscalculation was that he'd won over enough of America to ride it to a second term.

Even though I understand the details of it, it still baffles me so much of the country's future rests on a portion of the RW voting bloc "aging out"(read: dying of old age) of voting. Trump is ,among other things, the exact kind of person they've idolized for far too long.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:50

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

zoux posted:

Every democrat on the planet is quaking in their boots and pissing themselves in terror about Biden's polling; there's just nothing to be done about it except hope the polls are wrong or that they move when Trump is on the news 24/7 running on the platform of "I won the 2020 election".

It's not that the polls are "wrong," it's just that polls before the 300-day mark have zero success in predicting the outcome consistently. Special elections a year out are just as or more predictive than polling a few weeks from election day. This bodes well for Democrats.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:51

BUUNNI: Jun 23, 2023; by Pragmatica

PeterWeller posted:

The Democrats did not secure control of the three branches of government.

You're right, I meant control of the executive and the two chambers of congress, not control of the three branches of government, since evidently the judicial will never be under anything except far-right control :v:

Vahakyla posted:

How is this a �yep� when way more ex-army officers and rangers and fighter pilots voted no to censure?

Was referring to this heck of a doozy:

https://twitter.com/PalantirTech/status/1712248580558246065

BUUNNI fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Nov 8, 2023

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:51

Dapper_Swindler: Feb 14, 2012; Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Shooting Blanks posted:

He's only toxic and annoying to people who already aren't going to vote for him. To his supporters, he is the golden calf. It's easy to forget, but there were a lot of interviews with his supporters that said things like "I don't like his personal morals, but I can't vote for anyone else." or "I don't like how he treats women, but I have to vote for him because anyone else is terrible for America."

Being toxic and annoying is a feature, not a bug, to Trump's supporters - the miscalculation was that he'd won over enough of America to ride it to a second term.

sure but its also toxic to the moderates and squishy "fence Party" types who just want a boring haley or kasich type ghoul they look for if/when they vote conservative. that mixed with family and culture have pushed them at least socially leftishward. if that wernt true, we wouldnt have seen the last 2 elections happen. the chuds are write offs who will basicaly think trump is an eternal god being.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:52

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

Trump vs Biden 2024 polling aside, do we have polling for this set of races to compare against the actual results?

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:56

Robviously: Aug 21, 2010; Genius. Billionaire. Playboy. Philanthropist.

zoux posted:

Every democrat on the planet is quaking in their boots and pissing themselves in terror about Biden's polling; there's just nothing to be done about it except hope the polls are wrong or that they move when Trump is on the news 24/7 running on the platform of "I won the 2020 election".

I don't think this is true, I think that the media wants the narrative of an incumbent trailing in the polls because they need something new to spice up their routines. Democrats who already have issues with Biden are jumping on them as a gotcha moment because the party in total is failing them, even as they show out like they did last night and in the past couple cycles.

Like someone mentioned earlier, good loving luck trying to get anyone who isn't brain addled on a landline and doubly so by mail. It's anecdotal but I'm a letter carrier so I deliver Gallup and Nielson surveys to the various people who get them. The number of them that actually get sent back is a lot more than makes sense. Nielson sends them with $5 included as a thanks to do the survey and people will outright leave them to be sent back without even taking the fiver. Most people do not want or care about doing polling.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:57

the_steve: Nov 9, 2005; We're always hiring!

Bodyholes posted:

Obama sucked and was a huge disappointment in countless ways but I'm not exactly sure what you want to do about it.

A large percentage of democrats suck. That's what primaries are for. Shame nobody uses them.

Agreed, voter suppression is rough. It's gotta suck to be a young person trying to vote in a primary. All the hurdles to jump through if you're an out of state college student, closing polling locations early, cutting down on the number of polling places so that the only one is hours away, and heavens forfend if your state isn't one of the first 15 to actually have their primaries, or the whole thing will be declared done and over before you even get to vote.
They should definitely make voting easier so more people can have a say in the process.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Nov 8, 2023 19:59

Orthanc6: Nov 4, 2009

BUUNNI posted:

https://twitter.com/PalantirTech/status/1712248580558246065

Well that could not possibly be more on brand, but I think Tolkien would still be pretty pissed that his works were being used unironically to work for the exact evils he was trying to warn us about.

We need a word for this paradox of conflict; how tempting it is to use the words and weapons of one's enemy, but doing so quickly turns one into the same, if not worse than said enemy.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:05

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

Orthanc6 posted:

Well that could not possibly be more on brand, but I think Tolkien would still be pretty pissed that his works were being used unironically to work for the exact evils he was trying to warn us about.

We need a word for this paradox of conflict; how tempting it is to use the words and weapons of one's enemy, but doing so quickly turns one into the same, if not worse than said enemy.

I don't know if he'd be that mad considering that he wrote the original Palantir as a corrupting evil artifact

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:06

Mustang: Jun 18, 2006; “We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

It is easy to vote in states that Democrats control.

In Washington I get mailed a ballot for every election and a handy voters guide that explains what it is I'm voting on.

But even with voters being mailed a ballot for every election, turnout is low for any that isn't a vote for president. It's still just as easy to vote in these other elections here but people don't.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:07

Zore: Sep 21, 2010; willfully illiterate, aggressively miserable sourpuss whose sole raison d�etre is to put other people down for liking the wrong things

Zwabu posted:

Trump vs Biden 2024 polling aside, do we have polling for this set of races to compare against the actual results?

There was almost none for VA since it was all incredibly local contests but the general sentiment was that it was about a Dem+2 environment overall which means they really over-performed considering some of the seats they flipped.

Beshear is weird. Emmerson released a poll with him up 16 on October 3rd then one on November 2nd with Cameron up 1. Data for Progress had him up 2 on November 4th. He ended up winning by about 5.5% depending on how the last votes shake out that they're counting now. The only other polls released during the period were from the campaigns themselves and had Beshear up 8.

The only polls I can find for Pressley in MS were from his campaign/DGA which showed the race tied/at one or polls in August and September that had him down 11 and 8. The actual margin he lost by was about 5% again with the final margin depending on how the last few votes shake out.

There honestly isn't anywhere near enough to draw conclusions from because there was so little polling overall for these races.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:11

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

Zore posted:

There honestly isn't anywhere near enough to draw conclusions from because there was so little polling overall for these races.

That seems to be a common thing for state races in general. Smaller elections mean a whole lot more polls to cover something of interest to fewer people, but the laws of statistics mean the poll itself can't be that much smaller or cheaper. So either the polls are less accurate than for federal races or you get fewer of them.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:16

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

haveblue posted:

I don't know if he'd be that mad considering that he wrote the original Palantir as a corrupting evil artifact

That�s not quite accurate. They were communication tools that Sauron turned into a corrupting artifact. Which is also applicable as a metaphor for the internet too.

Thing about palantir is anything it can do for the government, it can also do for the right.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:20

single-mode fiber: Dec 30, 2012

Eric Cantonese posted:

Is the split going to remain that pronounced though? I feel like Right Wing Media is doing a great job of turning extremist positions into mainstream conservative positions for the younger generation of aggressive "pro-business" capitalists. It takes some work before socially regressive policies become obviously antithetical to the favorable economic policies that supposedly "really" matter to the stewards of capital you're talking about.

I do think there is an issue about how the base does not naturally regressive taxation structures and unrestricted outsourcing and getting rid of Social Security, but I feel like the base is very easily brainwashed into thinking that their social stances require them to be for all of that. They should be voting against themselves.

I agree that for a lot of right wing people, they will be told to adopt positions, basically a list of here's what you need to say is good/bad in order to be considered In-Group, or else you're Out-Group. But, for positions a person doesn't really care that much about, it doesn't stir their heart, it doesn't make them want to talk about it to their friends and neighbors who may be otherwise politically disengaged and note vote at all, etc. The 2016 election had a lot of this in the run-up to it, the promise of sticking it to The Liberals, we're gonna Build The Wall to stop those Mexicans who are always laughing when you walk into Home Depot, they're probably laughing at you, etc. There was a lot of this excited chatter about how they're gonna score the big upset win and convince people to join the bandwagon. It's harder to get that same level of excitement among the usually disengaged when ranting about trans people. Yeah, the average right-leaning disengaged person probably thinks trans people are icky, but they don't view as an abomination before the holy eyes of Baby Jesus, they just don't care that much. On the flip side, lots of people keep showing up to vote against them, and so the red team keeps losing, people don't want to root for losers, bandwagon momentum is for winning teams.

So yeah, the base can be easily deceived into supporting the current list of grievances, but it hasn't been translating into the election wins needed to carry out the pro-capital policies (arguably Democrats do too good of a job of this all on their own anyway). One of the things which I remember from January 6th, like as it was unfolding to 24 hours later, a lot of huge corporations and their executive teams came out quick condemnations of it. Now, it's just words, but they could've been silent, they could've said "yeah you're right the election really was stolen," etc. To me it appeared that, even for the billionaire class, overthrowing the government by force is a bridge too far. This is just empty speculation on my part, but I have to wonder if that and everything that's followed has led some capital owners to begin to question whether Republicans can actually relied upon to safeguard their interests when they can't even elect speakers or pass budgets, and if it might be easier to just buy off some more Democrats instead.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:27

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

BUUNNI posted:

I’m not following your math here, how can you claim that reparations was a topic that the Dems were pushing in 2020 then go on to state that they had completely dropped the subject in 2019?

Can you clarify what exactly you’re arguing, other than this weird claim that the time frame doesn’t matter because Trump was in office?

Ah, I think I see the disconnect here. The 2020 election cycle doesn't just take place in 2020, it goes from Jan 2019-Nov 2020. Even the article you posted was from mid-2019.

Reparations came up early in the 2020 cycle (the first few months of 2019) because the new Congress was pushing reparations-related bills and the media was pushing candidates to weigh in on the controversial issue. After summer 2019, the issue had largely fallen away, and was not really brought up again for the rest of the 2020 cycle ("the rest" means Sept 2019-Nov 2020).

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:30

BUUNNI: Jun 23, 2023; by Pragmatica

Main Paineframe posted:

Ah, I think I see the disconnect here. The 2020 election cycle doesn't just take place in 2020, it goes from Jan 2019-Nov 2020. Even the article you posted was from mid-2019.

Reparations came up early in the 2020 cycle (the first few months of 2019) because the new Congress was pushing reparations-related bills and the media was pushing candidates to weigh in on the controversial issue. After summer 2019, the issue had largely fallen away, and was not really brought up again for the rest of the 2020 cycle ("the rest" means Sept 2019-Nov 2020).

Again, I'm referring to the debates and not individual reps introducing bills purely for show that ended up nowhere.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:34

VorpalBunny: May 1, 2009; Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog

Robviously posted:

I don't think this is true, I think that the media wants the narrative of an incumbent trailing in the polls because they need something new to spice up their routines. Democrats who already have issues with Biden are jumping on them as a gotcha moment because the party in total is failing them, even as they show out like they did last night and in the past couple cycles.

Like someone mentioned earlier, good loving luck trying to get anyone who isn't brain addled on a landline and doubly so by mail. It's anecdotal but I'm a letter carrier so I deliver Gallup and Nielson surveys to the various people who get them. The number of them that actually get sent back is a lot more than makes sense. Nielson sends them with $5 included as a thanks to do the survey and people will outright leave them to be sent back without even taking the fiver. Most people do not want or care about doing polling.

The only polls I do are online Gallup polls, because they get emailed to me and I get "paid" in online gift cards/donations. I just did one with my 12-year old, and they offered him a $10 gift card for his time. That seems to be the best/only way to truly get a cross-section of responders, because almost everyone emails and they are dedicated links that hopefully can't be screwed up by bots.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:34

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

Bar Ran Dun posted:

That�s not quite accurate. They were communication tools that Sauron turned into a corrupting artifact. Which is also applicable as a metaphor for the internet too.

Thing about palantir is anything it can do for the government, it can also do for the right.

Yeah, when you logged in Sauron controlled the algorithm that guided you to doomscrolling and despair about his overwhelming might, leaving Saruman and Denethor to the conclusion that the only way to beat him was either to ape his methods and aim for chief lackey as a fallback, or give up and die on a pyre, respectively. All it lacks for the modern internet is a reinforcing loop of like friends, but there were only seven Palantir and some of them were lost/destroyed.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:36

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

Grima Wormtongue spent ENTIRELY too much time posting on the Middle Earth 4chan.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 20:38

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

zoux posted:

And he will also be in the middle of three separate felony criminal trials the whole time.

With any luck he'll be incarcerated by June or so.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:06

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

I recommend listening to or watching this video about an almost entirely unknown Trump advisor who apparently was one of the few people left who was in the White House at the end. He�s one of the people in charge of Project 2025, which is essentially the right wing plan to fill the federal bureaucracy with Trump loyalists and other fascists if he wins in 2024.

https://twitter.com/pablotorre/status/1721895452927570108?s=46&t=BHs6Pl38GJXGN2Y4xeriNA

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:13

CapnAndy: Feb 27, 2004; Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

the_steve posted:

Yeah, sure would be silly if that were a thing that happened.

Good thing Obama didn't roll over and let the Republicans block his supreme court nominee because the entire democratic party took it as a foregone conclusion that Hillary was going to just waltz in and get to appoint two judges on day one.

"Let"? What actual action do you want Obama to have taken that he didn't? Send in the National Guard and hold the Senate at gunpoint?

selec posted:

In 2016 we were unable to escape the youthful chuddy enthusiasm of pepe memes, and much of that work got recycled into more-or-less official campaign structures, reusing content, hiring creators and memers into actual roles.

What�s changed in the eight years since then? A gently caress ton.

Something else major has changed too -- the very nature of Twitter.

As you said, 2016 had a lot of chuddy meme enthusiasm, and in 2020 Twitter was a major ideological battlefield and also a logistical one in keeping it clean of misinformation. But in 2024 it's gonna come in pre-compromised... but so pre-compromised that I don't think it'll matter. Of course right wing propaganda and psyops are gonna be blaring on Twitter 24/7, it's a nazi cesspool now. I think everyone's just going to ignore it and it won't be able to replicate its 2016 results. Hopefully.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:20

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

BUUNNI posted:

Again, I'm referring to the debates and not individual reps introducing bills purely for show that ended up nowhere.

It came up in the debates because individual reps introduced bills, although we'll have to agree to disagree about whether they were "purely for show" and "ended up nowhere".

That was the entire reason the candidates were talking about reparations at all. A reparations bill was debated by a Senate committee (which made the news, because it was farther than reparations had ever gotten before) and then reporters started asking the candidates for their stances on reparations, which led to the question being asked in the second debate, after which it was pretty much dropped from the discourse entirely because the media was satisfied with the headlines they'd gotten and none of the candidates were really interested in talking about it further (except Williamson, who desperately needed all the free press she could get).

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:30

Nelson Mandingo: Mar 27, 2005

zoux posted:

Every democrat on the planet is quaking in their boots and pissing themselves in terror about Biden's polling; there's just nothing to be done about it except hope the polls are wrong or that they move when Trump is on the news 24/7 running on the platform of "I won the 2020 election".

After last night I have a very hard time believing those polls are accurate. A dem won in a NJ area Trump won by +35.

You really expect me to believe Trump is up +5?

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:41

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Nelson Mandingo posted:

After last night I have a very hard time believing those polls are accurate. A dem won in a NJ area Trump won by +35.

You really expect me to believe Trump is up +5?

Theoretically it is possible that everyone hates Biden but is passionately voting Democrat anyway because (abortion, trump, etc)

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:43

BUUNNI: Jun 23, 2023; by Pragmatica

Main Paineframe posted:

It came up in the debates because individual reps introduced bills, although we'll have to agree to disagree about whether they were "purely for show" and "ended up nowhere".

That was the entire reason the candidates were talking about reparations at all. A reparations bill was debated by a Senate committee (which made the news, because it was farther than reparations had ever gotten before) and then reporters started asking the candidates for their stances on reparations, which led to the question being asked in the second debate, after which it was pretty much dropped from the discourse entirely because the media was satisfied with the headlines they'd gotten and none of the candidates were really interested in talking about it further (except Williamson, who desperately needed all the free press she could get).

Looking forward to having lively primary debates next election cycle, since I�m super interested in seeing whether the Dem presidential candidates support basic progressive policies like reparations and DC/PR statehood.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:46

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# ? May 24, 2024 19:39

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Nelson Mandingo posted:

After last night I have a very hard time believing those polls are accurate. A dem won in a NJ area Trump won by +35.

You really expect me to believe Trump is up +5?

I believe that Trump can be up +5 in a race that has not had a billion dollars spent advertizing how important it is to vote against Trump, 365 days out, even if a single district that has had a bunch of campaign work put into it got across the line in a district that voted for Trump in 2020 literally yesterday.

If Biden spends literally no money and no time on campaigning in the next 365 days he loses in 2024. He might gently caress up and lose anyway despite working really hard, if he acts like an idiot. Biden is not inherently guaranteed to win an election or votes- he will have to spend money and do work.

# ? Nov 8, 2023 21:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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