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Pobrecito posted:I mean there's been fairly consistent polling for a minute now that has shown Biden's numbers with black voters are really low for a Democrat. What if it's a case of this?
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Nov 9, 2023 20:01
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Nervous posted:You must only know lovely sports fans. It's all about rooting for the underdog, knowing they'll probably come up short but hoping they don't. Unless you're some rear end in a top hat Lakers/Celtics/Yankees/Pats fan. Or worst of all, a Dallas Cowboys fan. There’s a distinction here. People do love to root for an underdog. In games where they don’t have a vested interest. But they want to identify with and be fans of a winner. That’s why there aren’t a lot of Texans fans in Washington State, even if they would cheer for the Texans over, say, the Bengals.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:02
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1722672384019144713 I mean i am of the belief that Ron is just gonna stay in til the convention and try to make deals with the powers that be for the leadership role, epsically if trump is in jail.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:09
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Gonna go full unskew over here I think the polls are indeed complete bullshit. 100% I never believed "undecided" voters were anything other than solid R voters lying about it in past years and I ended up being pretty close to the mark. In recent years they've expanded to also lying about being ex-Biden or ex-Obama voters. Ultimately pollsters have their work cut out for them cutting through misinformation and reaching representative populations. Doesn't mean Biden's winning by any means, but it means we have fog of war on this year.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:15
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Back in 2016 and 2020, there was a lot of talk around the idea of Republican voters hiding their hand, presumably out of embarrassment. I wonder if there's a similar dynamic with Democrat voters now, except it's from threat of violence. They don't say they're going to vote Democrat because they don't want their car to get keyed, or tires slashed, or have a gun pulled in their face.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:30
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single-mode fiber posted:Back in 2016 and 2020, there was a lot of talk around the idea of Republican voters hiding their hand, presumably out of embarrassment. I wonder if there's a similar dynamic with Democrat voters now, except it's from threat of violence. They don't say they're going to vote Democrat because they don't want their car to get keyed, or tires slashed, or have a gun pulled in their face. Eh. Anecdotally I live in the bloodest red state in the nation (Alabama) and I've never been criminally harassed for my voting habits. It helps I'm a six foot male and have an unkind face. I'm not saying it doesn't happen but I've never hidden my far left (by american standards) politics or have felt the need to. I just don't believe it's really much of a thing. To my experience that comes off as slight paranoia. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Nov 9, 2023 |
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Nov 9, 2023 20:43
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I don't know what's going on in the polls, but there is no world in which the electoral results from Tuesday comport with a sub-40 presidential approval rating. Either they're wrong or presidential approval has become completely disconnected from electoral results in a way that's new in American politics. That these polls show Trump outright winning under 35s, historically and electorally his weakest demographics, make me think it's the former.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:44
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It's possible that a binary expression of approval or disapproval just isn't sufficient to cover situations like "honestly, Biden is failing in a lot of areas but holy poo poo he's better than the alternative."
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Nov 9, 2023 20:46
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https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/...ber%3D4330pti36 manchin isnt running for reelection which sorta makes sense. sucks that no other dem can win WV.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:48
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e: beaten on Manchin news
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Nov 9, 2023 20:48
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Edward Mass posted:e: beaten on Manchin news lol. I mean my view is it sucks on some level because it guaranteed GOP seat now instead of 75% probable GOP seat and manchin could at least be worked with and helped pass some good stuff even if he lovely rear end in a top hat. i am just glad sinema is done.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:51
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God I hate that fucker, and I'm going to miss him like crazy come 2025 :/ Lets hope him being retired doesn't cause some fuckery in the senate when its time to certify the electoral college.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:58
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Unfortunately, West Virginia will probably elect some Tuberville-type. Do we know who is likely to throw their hat in for the West Virginia Democrats? Is it going to be Swearingen again? EDIT: Nevermind. Didn't realize Swearingen left the party.
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Nov 9, 2023 20:59
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Eric Cantonese posted:Unfortunately, West Virginia will probably elect some Tuberville-type. jim justice is running and it will be him who wins the primary and him wins the election. he sucks and will probably end up like tuberville but he is mostly a more right leaning manchin if i read correctly.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:01
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Rand Brittain posted:It's possible that a binary expression of approval or disapproval just isn't sufficient to cover situations like "honestly, Biden is failing in a lot of areas but holy poo poo he's better than the alternative." Yeah, it's very anecdotal, but I do think we're in uncharted territory, where some people who previously didn't think a whole lot about politics and voted R because their parents did are now solidly "never voting R again as long as I live". Which doesn't map neatly onto approval of Biden or any Democrat, but that doesn't mean they're running into Trump's open arms.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:02
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Cimber posted:God I hate that fucker, and I'm going to miss him like crazy come 2025 :/ He's teasing a run for president.... My head tells me "Manchin was by far the most value over replacement senator in the caucus" but my heart says "gently caress off forever you mendacious piece of poo poo"
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Nov 9, 2023 21:04
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The only part of Manchin to mourn is the vote for Dem leadership
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Nov 9, 2023 21:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/...ber%3D4330pti36 This is bad. Yes gently caress Manchin etc etc but he was still a massive net positive to have in the Senate relative to who will end up in the seat. Like, Jim loving Justice may end up in that seat.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:08
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Manchin wasn't going to win in '24 against Jim Jordan.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:19
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Eric Cantonese posted:Unfortunately, West Virginia will probably elect some Tuberville-type. The only sports hero West Virginia has like that is Don Nehlen and the dude is like 90 years old
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Nov 9, 2023 21:20
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single-mode fiber posted:The only sports hero West Virginia has like that is Don Nehlen and the dude is like 90 years old Senator Randy Moss has a ring to it.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:21
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Manchin's victory margin has been narrowing each election and it was pretty narrow in 2018, after 4 years of Biden there was likely little chance he could have won re-election anyway. As far as the Biden polling, it seems to me that it's the same thing as polls about policies. When the options are abstract like "Biden or a theoretical better Democrat" for President they'll happily go for the latter. But when the actual ballot comes to "Biden or Buttigieg" and then "Biden or Trump" they'll fall back to voting for Biden. There's just no real competition at the moment unfortunately, the most you've got is a few Dem Governors who still need more time to build up national profiles.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:23
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Jim Justice is extremely popular in West Virginia and Manchin is currently one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. He unfortunately was not going to repeat his 2018 performance
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Nov 9, 2023 21:24
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So with that (and yes Manchin was probably losing anyway) the Democrats pretty much must win Montana, Arizona and Ohio to split the senate 50/50, right? Like, I don’t see any other paths.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:27
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zoux posted:I don't know what's going on in the polls, but there is no world in which the electoral results from Tuesday comport with a sub-40 presidential approval rating. Either they're wrong or presidential approval has become completely disconnected from electoral results in a way that's new in American politics. That these polls show Trump outright winning under 35s, historically and electorally his weakest demographics, make me think it's the former. While there are clear issues with polls that have Trump winning 30% of the Black voters and beating Biden with under 35s, I think a larger issue this far out is the nature of the two parties. The Democrats have essentially become the party of people who aren't Republicans, and as such they're going to be more likely to tell pollsters a year out that they'll totally not vote for the Democrat. Which is ignoring that a year out even people living in the tightest swing state can pretend that they're a Hawaiian Socialist free to vote their conscience. I know I was firmly not voting for Biden all the way up until it came time to vote, and my hopeless optimism kicked in and convinced me that maybe Florida wasn't completely irredeemable. Rand Brittain posted:It's possible that a binary expression of approval or disapproval just isn't sufficient to cover situations like "honestly, Biden is failing in a lot of areas but holy poo poo he's better than the alternative." I think in normal times Biden's approval ratings would have him not running or facing actual challengers. It's just that we're still living in Trump times, and as such what matters is being palatable enough for voters to take you over Trump. Being the guy nobody loves, but enough people can stomach is like 97% of what Biden the nomination in 2020.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:40
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When has the incumbent ever not run?
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Nov 9, 2023 21:41
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i am a moron posted:When has the incumbent ever not run? Teddy Roosevelt stepping aside for Taft because teddy had been in office for 7 years?
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Nov 9, 2023 21:44
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Anyone who won two terms before FDR. James Polk stepped down after 1 term, instead of 2.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:45
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i am a moron posted:When has the incumbent ever not run? LBJ
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Nov 9, 2023 21:45
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So I’m asking because this:Gyges posted:
Seems totally wrong? The parties don’t tend to really allow challenges to incumbents either do they?
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Nov 9, 2023 21:46
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:So with that (and yes Manchin was probably losing anyway) the Democrats pretty much must win Montana, Arizona and Ohio to split the senate 50/50, right? Like, I don’t see any other paths. Rick Scott lost a poll against his challenger. So we can totally not suck this time. It'll for sure happen. It wouldn't hurt so much if the absolute worst charisma black holes weren't who kept winning down here. i am a moron posted:Seems totally wrong? The parties don’t tend to really allow challenges to incumbents either do they? Kennedy took Carter to the convention. The issue is that the incumbent is almost always at least popular with their party. If it weren't for Trump, Biden's numbers would be bringing in challengers like moths to a flame.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:47
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i am a moron posted:So I’m asking because this: LBJ again, part of what convinced him not to run is that he only won the NH primary by 6 pts against Eugene McCarthy. RFK got in the race after that, polling showed him crushing the WI primary. Combine that with failing health and his deep unpopularity and he decided not to seek the nomination.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:50
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i am a moron posted:So I’m asking because this: LBJ is probably the only example of what you're asking. With that said, Biden has historically low approval ratings. He's polling worse than Trump at the same point in his presidency, and the only president who polled worse is Jimmy Carter. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Biden is a uniquely unpopular president, so it's not all that surprising that there's discussion over whether or not he should be running for re-election.
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Nov 9, 2023 21:51
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single-mode fiber posted:Back in 2016 and 2020, there was a lot of talk around the idea of Republican voters hiding their hand, presumably out of embarrassment. I wonder if there's a similar dynamic with Democrat voters now, except it's from threat of violence. They don't say they're going to vote Democrat because they don't want their car to get keyed, or tires slashed, or have a gun pulled in their face. It's all vibes, but I feel like there are a lot of people who like the idea of the GOP and hate every Republican candidate. Fork of Unknown Origins posted:So with that (and yes Manchin was probably losing anyway) the Democrats pretty much must win Montana, Arizona and Ohio to split the senate 50/50, right? Like, I don’t see any other paths. They seem to have decent recruitment in Texas, Ted Cruz is an underperformer and Trump probably isn't going to win by more than ~5 points. It's still probably a Republican win (and if it's a Democratic win, it's likely the 51st seat) but it's winnable.
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Nov 9, 2023 22:07
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Bodyholes posted:Gonna go full unskew over here I think the polls are indeed complete bullshit. 100% To be clear, you think each one of these polls is to be disregarded and that their findings bear no prognostic value, whatsoever? 
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Nov 9, 2023 22:09
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I think Manchin’s retirement means the smart thing is for Sotomayor to step down and be replaced safely: she’s a 69 year old diabetic, life expectancy is 75ish. Worth the risk for her not to? Or do we preemptively avoid an RBG situation this time?
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Nov 9, 2023 22:12
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The Top G posted:To be clear, you think each one of these polls is to be disregarded and that their findings bear no prognostic value, whatsoever? They can be disregarded because polling a year out has no predictive value. 
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Nov 9, 2023 22:19
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selec posted:I think Manchin’s retirement means the smart thing is for Sotomayor to step down and be replaced safely: she’s a 69 year old diabetic, life expectancy is 75ish. Worth the risk for her not to? Or do we preemptively avoid an RBG situation this time? She seems to have it managed very well and there’s no sign of the comorbid disease often seen in older diabetics. RBG, on the other hand, was riddled with cancer by the time Trump came into office. I suppose better safe than sorry but I’m not sure she’d go for that LOL
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Nov 9, 2023 22:22
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The Top G posted:She seems to have it managed very well and there’s no sign of the comorbid disease often seen in older diabetics. RBG, on the other hand, was riddled with cancer by the time Trump came into office. I suppose better safe than sorry but I’m not sure she’d go for that LOL Which pieces of social progress are we willing to gamble being rolled back, or ruled on poorly, to not make an effort to make this happen? What’s the downside besides one person’s ego?
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Nov 9, 2023 22:27
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/...ber%3D4330pti36 In hindsight it's actually insanely galling that he spent the last six years being a cantankerous, stubborn old man intent on loving around every single drat time the chips were down on any Dem policy priority just because he could and not because he actually wanted to hold onto his Senate seat in 2024.
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