|
Crazyweasel posted:What doesn’t make sense to me is the huge price increase for “mid level homes”. Not mansions, but something you’d see a family of 4 or 5 comfortably fit in, let’s say 2700+ sq. Ft. Those are hitting like, $800k - $1m or more. I guess I’m underestimating the drive for Gen X/Elder Millennials, or there is serious out-of-state corrections still happening where richer than average city dwellers are moving my way. It’s just like…to afford those homes you need to be making like at least $250k, which is a very very high end salary around here. Certainly something I dont think I’d hit. 3 years ago at 3% rates these houses were more like $700k and you could maybe get one with like $200k and a high degree of fiscal responsibility….but now it’s like they exist for an entirely different bracket of society. A mid-level professional couple could easily be pulling in $200k HHI/year. In the major metro areas that number is likely closer to $300k. If you're single income household in a HCOL area then you just won't be able to complete without an extremely high salary. There just isn't enough SFH supply to meet the need of the dual income professional demographic which is why you see prices continue to rise. I think boomers moving to be closer to grandkids is also another factor. I'm priced out of the neighborhood I'm renting in but my parents just bought a place here a few months ago in a all cash no inspection deal.
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 17:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 18, 2024 04:00 |
|
|
PyRosflam posted:I mean its an asset price bubble proped up by the need for the asset prices to never fall or political and finacial systems start to fail. The knock on effects are insane as most are based on a % of the asset price. So we've invented a system that goes boom about the time the baby boomers dont need it anymore and the next generation is smaller (see population charts). There is a housing shortage and will continue to be one even as the boomers die off (see overall us population) unless nimby zoning is broken down in areas where there are jobs and where people want to live. It doesn't matter that genx is smaller, millennials and z need housing too, and they are not al all smaller as a group.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 17:45
|
|
|
Meanwhile in my low cost of living area, it looks like I'm buying a 1600sq ft, 3bd/3ba (admittedly tiny bedrooms) cute af and well maintained/remodeled 110 yr old house on 2 acres in the middle of town for $150/sq ft. Doing it with no realtor and neither I nor the seller have ever sold a house (or bought without a realtor) before so there's definitely been some learning to do for both of us.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 17:46
|
|
|
Nybble posted:Northern Virginia is especially weird in some respects with the few houses that are getting built. Check this place out, new construction, $1.8M. They built two of them next to each other to the point it might as well have no yard. Oh, I've driven by this - it's a weird little spot. I live about 2 miles away by the golf course, but I want to get out of this area.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 17:59
|
|
|
grenada posted:A mid-level professional couple could easily be pulling in $200k HHI/year. In the major metro areas that number is likely closer to $300k. If you're single income household in a HCOL area then you just won't be able to complete without an extremely high salary. There just isn't enough SFH supply to meet the need of the dual income professional demographic which is why you see prices continue to rise. I think boomers moving to be closer to grandkids is also another factor. I'm priced out of the neighborhood I'm renting in but my parents just bought a place here a few months ago in a all cash no inspection deal. I think as many boomers (at least the ones with enough money to regularly travel) move to get away from their grandkids as to be closer to them, not wanting to be regarded by their kids as free on-demand babysitting. But either way, yes.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 18:15
|
|
|
grenada posted:A mid-level professional couple could easily be pulling in $200k HHI/year. In the major metro areas that number is likely closer to $300k. If you're single income household in a HCOL area then you just won't be able to complete without an extremely high salary. There just isn't enough SFH supply to meet the need of the dual income professional demographic which is why you see prices continue to rise. I suppose this is a good point, around here if both parents are professionals in a well paying field, they could hit that $250k - $300k HHI level. I guess maybe the anomaly is that 3+ years ago they were getting great deals on homes :/ grenada posted:I think boomers moving to be closer to grandkids is also another factor. I'm priced out of the neighborhood I'm renting in but my parents just bought a place here a few months ago in a all cash no inspection deal. This is absolutely true in my area, that same thing happening and pumping up prices for “starter homes” that are now becoming Boomer retirement houses.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 18:25
|
|
|
Motronic posted:There is a housing shortage and will continue to be one even as the boomers die off (see overall us population) unless nimby zoning is broken down in areas where there are jobs and where people want to live. It doesn't matter that genx is smaller, millennials and z need housing too, and they are not al all smaller as a group. True, because housing is not just about affordability, but location and job avalability. The US has like all things, ramped this up to 11. Data driven wallstreet types spot any kind of price growth a mile away and pour money into it to get the growth without reguard for any actual community building. Thats how we're getting builders building 50+ hours that are going directly to the rental market and entrenched zoning laws blocking building, not building pushes up existing stock value (till people cant pay at all I guess) On the bright side big chunks of Cali are getting hit by "Builder's Remedy" filings, Austin just removed parking requirements, and other places are building. So we have some hope.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 18:32
|
|
|
Crazyweasel posted:something you’d see a family of 4 or 5 comfortably fit in, let’s say 2700+ sq. Ft. Those are hitting like, $800k - $1m or more. $800k would get you a 500 sq ft 1-bed apartment around here (non-US) or something a little bigger in the countryside. We are looking in the $2m range for a 3-bed. Salaries are more or less comparable to the US. Maybe people in the US will need to get used to smaller homes? I wonder if the country will go through a cycle of subdividing homes as has happened in the UK.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 19:15
|
|
|
knox_harrington posted:$800k would get you a 500 sq ft 1-bed apartment around here (non-US) or something a little bigger in the countryside. We are looking in the $2m range for a 3-bed. Salaries are more or less comparable to the US. Home size has little to do with the price. Average age of housing stock and location does. And speaking of location, that is the primary driver of price. The fact that faux luxury finishes have been added to a box that is a few feet larger in each direction does not cause of the massive price increases, it's the effect of land, utilities, zoning variances and building (as in getting people to the site) all being much more expensive. The additional labor and materials are nearly irrelevant until you're getting into massively huge places, well over 5k sq ft where you need multiple heating systems and twice the number of windows as one house.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 19:24
|
|
|
knox_harrington posted:$800k would get you a 500 sq ft 1-bed apartment around here (non-US) or something a little bigger in the countryside. We are looking in the $2m range for a 3-bed. Salaries are more or less comparable to the US. Is this mostly a space issue in the UK? For every (or nearly every, manhattan is weird) major metro in the US there is an enormous amount of room to build outwards and upwards. Upwards is tough because people want SFH. Outwards is tough because of NIMBY-ism. Abutting all major metros in the US are large suburban swaths with big square footages and large yards, with public transit into the metro. These people hate living in a metro but love the benefits of working in one. They fight tooth and nail to prevent any sort of affordable, multi-unit building that could threaten their quiet & unnecessarily large (read as: white) neighborhoods.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 19:30
|
|
|
Eric the Mauve posted:It's probably a bubble, but I'm not entirely confident it is. It may well just be late stage capitalism--i.e. people and companies with plenty of capital buying up every property worth buying as soon as it hits the market, rapidly leading to a world where 90% of residential property is owned by 5% of people, and if your income isn't high six figures at a minimum, you are a renter for life. The Duke of Kent (or whatever, some English Lord) owns so much of London and the surrounding areas that they had to pass a law in the 1960s that if you live in one of his flats long enough you're allowed to buy it from him at market rate The wealthy have been hoovering up tenaments since early or at least mid stage capitalism Hell, before the discovery of oil most wars were fought over who had the right to collect rent from farmers. It's not tongue and cheek that we call them land lords All land has some productive value (grazing, farming, mineral or otherwise) and precious little of it is being rezoned for housing. If prices went down 10% it there's enough pent up demand to absorb it
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 19:36
|
|
|
I don't know if it was here or in the no tweet economics thread but I recently mentioned this: among the multiple factors that have pushed house prices up and created more urgency of demand is the reduced number of people living in each home over the last century+ on top of the expanding average square feet in each home. It means a given housing development is housing fewer total people. Yes, you could build smaller houses, maybe have slightly smaller lots, and add another five houses to that development: but if each house is still only holding 2.5 people instead of 4.5 people you're not doing enough to compensate. I think sustained unaffordability of housing may actually push people to return to multiple occupancy and/or multigeneraitonal living, e.g, two families or one family including grandparents, sharing a home. Not just purposely-built duplexes, either, although some houses might have footprints that permit renovating them into duplexes; adding ADUs is another big option and California has laws now that prohibit cities from barring ADUs. But I'm talking also just straight up 4 or more adults plus some kids living in one big house with a shared kitchen. These big houses certainly have enough bathrooms, and this would require the massive cultural shift away from the entrenched idea that every child must have their own private bedroom, but it's possible, and it's normal in many other countries. I dunno, though. In America we loving love our little castles, private and safe, secured with cameras and firearms, into which only our invited guests may temporarily venture. Anecdotally: My own house is 1188 square feet and when we moved in, we still had several renting families around us who were clearly all living in a more communal way. I don't think it's coincidental that they were all immigrants. The neighbor two doors down's kids just walked right in our front door a couple months after we moved in, because they were used to doing that and forgot the previous tenants were gone. Little kids, like 5 or 6? Our neighbor was also using our driveway to park a car when we weren't there, it didn't occur to him to ask permission because of course you just shared your space. We weren't like, offended, but we had sort of a "oh, right, of course" moment or two. Those families were mostly renters and they're all gone now, as my neighborhood's housing crash era prices shot back up and the landlords sold off the properties over the years, mostly to DINKs like us, younger professional couples, and older people. A lot fewer total people per home now, basically. Kinda stupid in the midst of a housing crisis.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 19:45
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:I don't know if it was here or in the no tweet economics thread but I recently mentioned this: among the multiple factors that have pushed house prices up and created more urgency of demand is the reduced number of people living in each home over the last century+ on top of the expanding average square feet in each home. Yeah. Folks really need to realize that it was the boomer generation that started the cultural phenomenon of “kids move out and get their own place.” Prior to that everyone just stayed in the same place mostly and housing crowding/density was much higher than it is now. The pendulum is swinging back hard to higher levels of housing crowing. All of this also means that, since there are high levels of house crowing going on…that’s a whoooole lot of pent up demand that will get released as prices come down.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 20:25
|
|
|
Sure, multigenerational housing sounds good in a general sense, but have you considered that I would rather die than ever live with my boomer mother again?
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 20:32
|
|
|
Hutla posted:Sure, multigenerational housing sounds good in a general sense, but have you considered that I would rather die than ever live with my boomer mother again? I've seen some older European houses that basically take care of that by giving each generation their own floor
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 20:35
|
|
|
Hutla posted:Sure, multigenerational housing sounds good in a general sense, but have you considered that I would rather die than ever live with my boomer mother again? Man, we've lost the whole cultural thing where as you get older you start handing off and deferring more responsibility to your children. And doing a lot to help them out. So that you're not an entitled arrogant insufferable rear end in a top hat who gets shunted into a nursing home asap. I've got a friend who lives with his wife's retired parents, and it's actually a pretty sweet setup because together they could afford a really drat nice house for 3 generations to setup and spread out in. And her parents are very cool. But wow, that is rare these days. loving boomers!
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 20:39
|
|
|
There's no rule that you have to live with your own parents. Shop around, find a better match.
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 21:23
|
|
|
Tendales posted:There's no rule that you have to live with your own parents. Shop around, find a better match. So you're saying that I should find a sugar mommy or daddy to take care of me?
|
|
#
?
Nov 9, 2023 21:44
|
|
|
Uthor posted:So you're saying that I should find a sugar mommy or daddy to take care of me? Hey hey, take it to Reddit
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 03:47
|
|
|
I might posit it’s not even the boomers’ fault that the cultural shift to moving out at 18 occurred. People/companies in the 1950’s through I guess early 1970’s realized they had a ton of supplies and decent tradesmen, plenty of land, and countless 20-somethings with young families, and commercialized the idea of SFH. It also probably benefitted capital in a time when talking to anyone outside of walking distance was a pain in the rear end, and that might have pumped the brakes on passing down the lessons of the new deal and even moreso the labor struggles of the early 1900’s. Couple that with how cheap those new starter homes were in the 60s and 70s and every boomer probably thought oh my god that was the easiest most basic move ever. Highbrow Slick fucked around with this message at 06:37 on Nov 10, 2023 |
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 06:33
|
|
|
Highbrow Slick posted:I might posit it’s not even the boomers’ fault that the cultural shift to moving out at 18 occurred. People/companies in the 1950’s through I guess early 1970’s realized they had a ton of supplies and decent tradesmen, plenty of land, and countless 20-somethings with young families, and commercialized the idea of SFH. This narrative makes no sense The rural to urban shift happened during the boomers' reign; more people moved into multifamily housing during boomers' era than any other Prior to boomers the country was majority rural and most people lived in SFH  This is a weird Wikipedia SVG infographic so I had to cut off the source but it's data from the us census bureau A lot of suburban housing got built too but the transition to multifamily housing happened in parallel too
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 06:45
|
|
|
I see the graph shows the shift from rural to urban but help me understand. Wouldn’t rural housing pre-1950 be multi-generational vs. post-1950 urban housing?
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 06:55
|
|
|
Rural housing might be multi generational but it's not multifamily apartments My guess is society still needs to settle on a modern set of living templates and we haven't figured that out yet. I can see a situation in 50-75 years where a each multi generational family owns 2-3 units in a building and different families cycle through those through various stages of life Hadlock fucked around with this message at 07:30 on Nov 10, 2023 |
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 07:27
|
|
|
Some huge shifts affecting family size and thus occupancy habits include that we stopped all having five kids the elderly started living much, much longer but also needing more care because they survived disease that used to be much more rapidly fatal, and also married women started being allowed to have careers. Workforces became more mobile, and a lot more people started going (away) to college. I think racial integration, however incomplete it still is, also affected changes in how people decided where to live as they entered young adulthood and married, family life. There's a lot going on, basically.
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 08:19
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:There's a lot going on, basically. Agree with this Hadlock fucked around with this message at 09:25 on Nov 10, 2023 |
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 09:02
|
|
|
Double post
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 09:24
|
|
|
Having a more mobile (as in permanently relocatable) workforce also doesn't help
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 10:15
|
|
|
Hutla posted:Sure, multigenerational housing sounds good in a general sense, but have you considered that I would rather die than ever live with my boomer mother again? So so much this. I don’t know if this is a millennial thing, but me, my wife, and the people we surround ourselves with are very much private, gently caress off, I want to be left alone pretend I don’t exist people. Privacy & the space to be private without restrictions with my direct family matters more than just about anything else. Space isn’t so much a factor either. Maybe this is a NYC thing though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 16:12
|
|
|
Pilfered Pallbearers posted:So so much this. Not just a NYC thing. Roommate and I are both the same way—roomie more so since he basically disowned his entire family some years back. I’m thinking it’s a Millennial thing. I/we are unable to own yet because…well, what’s getting money saved when you live paycheck to paycheck with two incomes and pay $1500/month for a smallish 1BR apartment? I just mainly lurk to follow the discussion and live vicariously through y’all, and long for the day I can actually become so deeply stupid that I can post my own story and questions in this thread.
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 16:24
|
|
|
El Mero Mero posted:So there's this place that's been under construction for years outside of a hiking trail I go to. The house is basically being build on a steep gully in the hairpin of a road with hillside above the hairpin. This may have gotten lost, but it looks like basically a chunk of the hillside the house was built on fell into the abyss and now they're trying to find the last contractor who has never been exposed to COVID to buy it?
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 16:39
|
|
|
Cormack posted:This may have gotten lost, but it looks like basically a chunk of the hillside the house was built on fell into the abyss and now they're trying to find the last contractor who has never been exposed to COVID to buy it? And goddamn did they take a bath on it. Ouch.
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 17:57
|
|
|
Looking at the Oakland permits for that, I think the story is just one person who bought it in 2020 being BWM: Land was bought in 2004 then a permit for building a large-ish house was filed in 2014. Not a whole lot happened (hard to tell exactly what, but planning permit got approved but building permit didn't have much happen on it). House was listed again in mid-2020 - that's where the listing language in Zillow about COVID came from - can't tell if the more recent listing didn't have any description or if MLS rules made them pull it. Guessing given language/big price hike, the idea was "everybody wants single family homes in the hills now that they're all WFH, we've got permitted plans ready to go, take this and flip it" and somebody bit but then didn't actually execute on it (maybe because it was falling off a cliff, maybe because they're not actually pros and just bit on the "opportunity" because they were bored and at home). The this year they try to get out of it, list it on MLS, don't get any takers, then sell it off-market for a fraction of what they paid for it.
|
|
#
?
Nov 10, 2023 18:36
|
|
|
I'm going to buy a house from my grandmother's estate. I own half the house as it is so I think it's a good investment. It needs probably $70k in improvements to restore it to modern conditions, so we are selling it for a low price. No buyers at this time, and the agent's 6 month contract is up. My uncle is going to talk to a broker that can help give us some direction. I don't know who to talk to really, or what to do. How do I buy it? Where do I start? Needless to say, I'm very excited. The house has a lot of sentimental feelings for me, and the 'bones' are solid.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2023 22:16
|
|
|
Cheese Thief posted:I'm going to buy a house from my grandmother's estate. You should find a real estate attorney and the executor of the estate should hire a different one, and then you work out the payment and title transfer. Everything else will be different depending on your state and local laws.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2023 22:31
|
|
|
Cheese Thief posted:I'm going to buy a house from my grandmother's estate. I own half the house as it is so I think it's a good investment. It needs probably $70k in improvements to restore it to modern conditions, so we are selling it for a low price. No buyers at this time, and the agent's 6 month contract is up. You should hire a real estate attorney, they can walk you through what needs to happen
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2023 22:32
|
|
|
Cheese Thief posted:I'm going to buy a house from my grandmother's estate. I own half the house as it is so I think it's a good investment. It needs probably $70k in improvements to restore it to modern conditions, so we are selling it for a low price. No buyers at this time, and the agent's 6 month contract is up. You need a real estate attorney to contact the executor of the estate/the probate attorney handing the estate. I don't know what a "broker" is in this context but you do not want one involved.
|
|
#
?
Nov 11, 2023 22:34
|
|
|
Leperflesh posted:
True, but the urban/rural divide was already a big part of American cultural value discourse pre-boomers. It was 50/50 by 1900. The graph is a little unclear but I believe it was in the 1920 census where urban was higher than rural. So much was written during the 1920s about the changes in society because more people were living in urban areas and America was losing its "yeoman farmer" heritage, etc. And the large growth from the 1950s/70s wasn't being driven by boomers, it wasn't like you had these little kids making the decision to move.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2023 02:06
|
|
|
Yeah don't get a broker involved at all. Brokers are for finding buyers on the market. They are your sales and marketing team. They will suck 5% of the value out of the house ($10,000+) just for being attached to the deal. And all they're gonna do is refer you to an attorney you need to pay for anyways. The attorney ought to charge you a flat rate of a thousand bucks or whatever the going rate is these days. Brokers cannot and will not give legal advice, especially on stuff like buying out a share of a property.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2023 06:55
|
|
|
Multi generational home owner here. We bought this house a few years ago because it's a legal two family and we wanted space for my ailing father in law. We actually ended up with my daughter in law living here for a while and now the oldest grandchild. I couldn't be happier with how it worked out. There should be more places like this but NIMBYISM holds everything back.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2023 15:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 18, 2024 04:00 |
|
|
I just purchased a house (2 weeks ago) from someone who had power of attorney over his ailing father, who was the owner. Pretty similar to buying from an estate. We did it with no realtors, real estate attorneys or anything. We did use a closing agent. It's doable to do it on your own, but I think it'll probably be way easier/better with an attorney or even going through one of those legal services that provide support for purchasing a home. Buying from an estate I'd suggest an attorney though, as there may be more wrinkles. I'm our car we were buying as is, we were paying full closing costs, and we were well aware of issues going on with the home, and there were no probate issues as the guy is still alive. Depending on your level of visibility of the home and potential inheritance execution it may be a good idea to spend the money to cover yourself. Ultimately that's a thing for you to decide. So it's doable to do it on your own, probably not worth it, but you don't need realtor or broker in this case. An attorney is best but there are online services too if you don't want/need that level of protection.
|
|
#
?
Nov 12, 2023 16:35
|
|
