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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Ms Adequate posted:

I don't think "I respect the troops and that other fucker doesn't" really constitutes trying to outflank from the right, not in America, where support for the troops is taken to be an axiomatic good. Also yes a lot of fascists and conservatives don't care one whit about their hypocrisy but this is clearly aimed elsewhere, and trying to dampen support for him among those who might be on the fence.

Especially when POTUS is the chief in command, can send them to their deaths and is expected to look after them or at least not call them 'losers'. It would be bad form for any boss to talk of his underlings in that manner.

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BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

Nenonen posted:

Especially when POTUS is the chief in command,

The what now?

The Top G
Jul 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

i am a moron posted:

That’s a poll of Military Times readers (lmao) which couldn’t be more self-selecting and it’s only +10 for Donald Trump, I would draw the conclusion veterans are voting in larger numbers for Biden based on that.

Do you have a source that supports your claim? Or is this just your hunch? I agree it’s a suboptimal methodology but there aren’t many polls measuring support for trump amongst the military

Given that this was just a month after the “veterans are suckers” story, I wouldn’t be surprised if approval is higher since then. But since I don’t have evidence to support this claim, I’ll refrain from stating it as fact ;)

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"
I meant I would draw that conclusion as a personal observation, because I’m a veteran myself and I guarantee you the vast majority of us aren’t reading the military times and the folks who do are going to tend to be older. There’s also a poll from the same source saying veterans broke for Biden in 2020 and went +20 for Trump in 2016 https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/22761/us-military-voting-intention-in-the-november-election/. I doubt anyone is really looking into it because it’s not a really useful group in terms of understanding voting habits.

Tnega
Oct 26, 2010

Pillbug

BUUNNI posted:

The what now?

Non-Native speaker. Commander in Chief is the phrase we use, but google translate seems to think they would use ylipäällikkö / Supreme Commander.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

I AM GRANDO posted:

Conservatives are immune to charges of hypocrisy because they consider hypocrisy a sign of strength. They like accusing their enemies of hypocrisy because they think only weak fools care about consistency. “They have the freedom to play” etc.

It’s so loving dumb to try to hold hypocrisy against people as if they don’t know what they’re doing. It’s trying to appeal to some higher form of justice that doesn’t exist.

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell

Fister Roboto posted:

Also can't say I'm a big fan of Biden trying to flank Republicans from the right on who can worship ARE TROOPS the most.

It's for Veterans Day, I doubt this will be a running theme

Seph
Jul 12, 2004

Please look at this photo every time you support or defend war crimes. Thank you.

The Top G posted:

They don’t seem to have cared too much



And this is about a month after this article came out:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

Couldn’t find anything more recent so maybe things have changed since then

I think it would be more informative to compare this against the 2016 election to see how Trump’s actions in office affected military support. Just looking at a single point in time does not really support the point you are making that veterans didn’t care about his actions.

I was able to find these exit polls which show veterans breaking 61-34 for Trump (T+27) in 2016. Compared to your numbers (T+10) for 2020, that shows a marked decline in veteran support over Trump’s term. I would conclude his constant making GBS threads on the military actually did have an impact.

Seph fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Nov 12, 2023

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
I had talked yesterday about Biden's "secret" strategy for trying to rein in (I almost wrote the wrong "/rān/" MPF, thanks for scolding us all the other day) Israel. I said I would follow up on that a bit, so let's do that. I don't want to go around making my own drat bibliography for the argument that Biden wants the war to end but keeping that view out of his public statements, so I'm going to rely on a bigger-picture article article from The Atlantic.

I don't know if it's going to be very convincing to anybody who isn't inclined to believe it, and I'm sure I could make a better case if I wanted to pour hours into it and mine specific quotes from administration officials, but I just wanted to demonstrate that the take, "Biden is publicly supporting Israel 100% and, privately, desperately trying to get them to stop killing people" is not some weird far-out starry-eyed fantasy, but rather a very common view among foreign policy analysts.

Before I go into what Biden is doing, I just want to say that it's not working, and while I understood his strategy in the early days of the conflict, things have gone on way too long to keep being so passive. I am willing to cut Biden a lot of slack on things that others aren't because I accept that sometimes his hands are really tied. But in this case, if private cajoling hasn't convinced Israel to change their approach, then it's time to abandon that strategy, and I do think we are at least a couple of weeks past the point where Biden had more than enough political cover to call for a ceasefire. He's never gonna say "gently caress Israel, stupid colonialist apartheid dickheads," but he can call for a drat ceasefire. It's the right thing to do and it's probably not going to blow up his coalition (although it probably won't help.)

Look, I don't agree with Biden, broadly, about Israel. I didn't on October 6, either. Biden, like most people his age, is a Zionist - that's a problem. He takes "Israel has a right to exist" as an axiom and has never bothered to ask himself the "...wait, why?" follow-up question most people born since 1980 have. You are never going to have the right approach to the conflict if you are a true believer in Zionism. Even if the entire over-50 portion of the American body politic didn't have lovely views that made anti-Zionism politically toxic, Biden has his own lovely views that would be standing in the way of doing the right thing. I don't think Biden is a believer in justice for Gaza, I just don't think he has to be to be horrified by what has gone on the last month.

But ultimately, I don't really care about what's in Biden's "heart." What matters is the results, and he is not getting them so far. So before I proceed, let's make it clear that I'm giving him, like, a D- here, avoiding the "F" just for at least wanting the right thing to happen, but not getting much else when he's been too afraid to stick his neck out.

This piece is short and is light on documentable details, but this narrative is plastered all over mainstream coverage of the conflict in outlets like the Times and Post. The impression that Franklin Foer has here very closely matches the one I have gotten from reading daily mainstream coverage of the diplomatic developments, and synthesizes things that I've gleaned collectively from dozens of news and opinion pieces over the last month.

There is never going to be decisive documentation, because given the strategy being described here, the whole point is for there to be no black-and-white documentation of it. It's shadow diplomacy, deployed to deal with a uniquely neurotic and dangerous ally.

Inside Biden’s ‘Hug Bibi’ Strategy

Franklin Foer, The Atlantic posted:

A recent precedent captures his thinking. In May 2021, Hamas began firing rockets on Israeli cities. Biden told aides that he wanted to scrap the traditional playbook for navigating such a conflagration. Rather than dispatching his secretary of state to the region or calling for a cease-fire, he said that he wanted to smother Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—known as Bibi—with friendship. Or, as one White House aide described it to me, Biden wanted to “hug Bibi tight.”

This was a strategy built on an understanding of Israeli anxiety. The nation, historically encircled by enemies, desperately craves the affirmation of American friendship at its moments of peril. It needs to feel loved and secure when it fears for its existence. Instead of hectoring Israel, Biden wanted to bank emotional capital. He wanted Netanyahu to understand his own belief in Israel’s right to self-defense; and he wanted to show the Israeli public his steadfastness. Then, over the course of the conflict, he planned on drawing down the trust he had deposited, by guiding Netanyahu to the most prudent course of action.

During the 11 days of the 2021 conflict, Biden kept calling Netanyahu. As with the current war, Netanyahu’s strategic objectives weren’t entirely clear. Some in the Israeli military told their American counterparts that a ground invasion of Gaza was a live option. The risks of that weren’t hard to see. But instead of lecturing Netanyahu, Biden conducted the calls in the spirit of a Socratic dialogue. He would ask questions that forced Netanyahu to articulate his goals: How will this end? And how will you know when you’ve restored deterrence?

Biden had learned from the failures of the Obama administration. By adapting a more confrontational stance with Netanyahu, that administration may have pleased allies and domestic groups critical of Netanyahu, but it stoked Israeli insecurities. Instead of curtailing settlements or rushing to the peace table, the Israelis rebelled against the pressure. In fact, Biden personally suffered from this approach. When he visited the Jewish state in 2010, the Netanyahu government humiliated him by announcing the expansion of new housing in East Jerusalem. Rather than aborting his trip, which many back in Washington advised, Biden met up with Netanyahu and embraced him, saying, “This is a mess. How do we make it better?”

Biden believes his approach has already proved successful. In 2014, Israel’s war with Hamas extended across 50 days. In 2021, when Biden deployed his Hug Bibi strategy, the conflict lasted 11. Biden persuaded Netanyahu to wrap up the attack on Gaza in a call where he told him, “Hey, man, we’re out of runway here.”

This visit to Tel Aviv needs to be understood as the high-risk version of the same approach. By banking emotional capital with the Israeli public, he has acquired a position of leverage, from which he will privately prod the coalition government to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. His Socratic questioning can help sharpen Israeli thinking at a moment when emotions cloud judgment. This is a matter of American interest, as Biden tries to preserve the possibility of a regional peace deal, and to prevent the economic disaster of a wider war. And now his own political future depends on a warm embrace.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

The Top G posted:

Do you have a source that supports your claim? Or is this just your hunch? I agree it’s a suboptimal methodology but there aren’t many polls measuring support for trump amongst the military

Given that this was just a month after the “veterans are suckers” story, I wouldn’t be surprised if approval is higher since then. But since I don’t have evidence to support this claim, I’ll refrain from stating it as fact ;)

Not everything is a poll. Military bases went against Trump in 2020. (paywalled but you get the point from the preview)

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
Biden winning among active duty personnel is kind of amazing to me. This is all a pretty loose theory, and I wonder if anybody with more experience than me with the military and/or conservatives could comment on it: it seems like Trump has very few fans among military brass, and while we only see that publicly among some of the very top generals, remember that everybody down the line is taking their cues from those men. And among all officers, the fact that they are educated is starting to override the fact that they trend authoritarian.

While the type of person who is willing to enlist is naturally going to trend conservative, I think a lot of enlisted folks tend to respect their commanding officers more than civilian politicians, and certainly more than any chickenhawks in right wing media. Where the 19 year old guy working at the grocery store might be hearing from his manager about how Trump is going to save them from the woke elites who want to jack up their taxes and give all their money to trans homeless drug addicts, a 19 year old in the Navy might be hearing grumbling about Trump's disrespect for regulations, tradition and discipline.

But I don't know - maybe it would be very inappropriate for an officer to talk about that kind of stuff, and the impression is spreading some different way? It could be that the military rank and file are changing their views based on their own correct perception of what is in their own best interest, as people who want to get to the other side of their military careers alive, and as people who want to believe they are respected by the people who control their fates.

gurragadon
Jul 28, 2006

James Garfield posted:

Not everything is a poll. Military bases went against Trump in 2020. (paywalled but you get the point from the preview)

Heres the article. It might not neccessarlily being actual enlisted members of the military voting more Democratically, but there families and the civilian support staff.

quote:


Allegations of fraud can seldom be stood up by mere insinuation of fishiness. But with scant evidence, one Republican Party poll-watcher in Detroit fell back on that in 2020. In a notarised statement presented by the Trump campaign, the onlooker noted that most of the military ballots he “saw were straight ticket Democrat or simply had Joe Biden’s name filled in on them”. “I had always been told that military personnel tended to be more conservative, so this stuck out to me as the day went on,” he added. Although military voters and their families do tilt conservative (see chart), there is little evidence that they are a Republican constituency. In fact, analysis by The Economist suggests that Mr Trump performed far worse in 2020 across precincts that map onto military brs than he did four years earlier.

The political leanings of service members are difficult to measure. The Department of Defence–reluctant to poll active duty soldiers about their commander-in-chief and his party—rarely approves external political surveys. And while today’s soldiers are encouraged to exercise their right to vote, for some, including a number of America’s most distinguished generals, non-partisanship has precluded boots in the ballot box. General George C. Marshall once wrote, “I have never voted, my father was a Democrat, my mother was a Republican, and I am an Episcopalian.”

“There’s a broader narrative that the military is monolithically conservative or Republican, and that just really isn’t the case, or at least is not any more”, says Danielle Lupton, a scholar of civil-military relations at Colgate University in New York. Enlisted soldiers are drawn from, and thus generally reflective of, the American public, although they have greater racial diversity (a constituency that leans Democratic) and far more men (who tend Republican). As voting patterns shift nationwide, so too do they shift among the armed forces.

The Economist’s analysis of precincts that map closely onto military brs found a median swing of nearly eight points towards Joe Biden, compared with a nationwide shift of a little over two points in the same direction. On average, Mr Trump still won these precincts, though his margin shrank by nearly half. Patrick Air Force undefined—located on Florida’s Atlantic coast and since renamed Patrick Space Force undefined—supported Mr Trump by a 17-point margin in 2016. By 2020, his lead there shrank to 11 points. This method is inexact: two-thirds of enlisted service members who vote send in absentee ballots and military brs are often sprawling compounds where spouses, civilian contractors and other support staff reside and vote.

But so too is this finding borne out in the limited available polling of active military personnel. Shortly before the election of 2020, the Military Times and the Institute for Veterans and Military Families (ivmf) at Syracuse University augured an even more extreme swing. Whereas in October 2016 their joint poll showed Mr Trump outpacing Mrs Clinton by 20 points, four years later Mr Biden was ahead of the incumbent by four points. “In 2020, one of the interesting developments was that Trump himself...tried to drive a wedge...and claim populist style that it was the rank and file who liked him, not the senior brass,” noted Peter Feaver, a professor of political science at Duke University.

The Military Times-ivmf polling before the election showed Mr Trump lost ground among both enlisted soldiers and the officer corps, the latter of whom had historically voted disproportionately Republican. Looking ahead to 2024, for Republicans to regain what was lost of the military vote, Mr Feaver speculates the best thing would be “for Trump to shuffle off stage”.


Anecdotally I ended my enlistment in the Navy in 2017 right after Trump took office, not because he took office but because my contract ended then, but I wouldn't have reenlisted either way. Officers didn't talk politics to enlisted and I never talked politics to other enlisted people unless it was some kind of joke. I can see Trumps unpredictability being a negative to military families. He also used the military a lot to improve his political standing. I was forced to stand around for hours waiting for Trump to give a speech as president that was effectively just his rally speech as an active-duty sailor. Plenty of stuff I should have been doing and had to stick around to do after waiting for Trump to dick around and make a speech, that leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.

https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/P...-r-ford-cvn-78/

AlternateNu
May 5, 2005

ドーナツダメ!

Misunderstood posted:

Biden winning among active duty personnel is kind of amazing to me. This is all a pretty loose theory, and I wonder if anybody with more experience than me with the military and/or conservatives could comment on it: it seems like Trump has very few fans among military brass, and while we only see that publicly among some of the very top generals, remember that everybody down the line is taking their cues from those men. And among all officers, the fact that they are educated is starting to override the fact that they trend authoritarian.

While the type of person who is willing to enlist is naturally going to trend conservative, I think a lot of enlisted folks tend to respect their commanding officers more than civilian politicians, and certainly more than any chickenhawks in right wing media. Where the 19 year old guy working at the grocery store might be hearing from his manager about how Trump is going to save them from the woke elites who want to jack up their taxes and give all their money to trans homeless drug addicts, a 19 year old in the Navy might be hearing grumbling about Trump's disrespect for regulations, tradition and discipline.

But I don't know - maybe it would be very inappropriate for an officer to talk about that kind of stuff, and the impression is spreading some different way? It could be that the military rank and file are changing their views based on their own correct perception of what is in their own best interest, as people who want to get to the other side of their military careers alive, and as people who want to believe they are respected by the people who control their fates.

Trump was also just a lovely CiC and made a lot of decisions that pissed off mid-level management. I can only speak to the Navy, but I was mobilized as a BWC with Task Force 51/5th Marine Expeditionary Brigade in Bahrain in 2019/2020, and some of the directives we saw coming down were head-scratching at best and stretched a lot of COVID-strained forces to their breaking points. For example, he kept the Eisenhower strike group in theater waaaaaay longer than they should've been there in order to keep a strike group on station in the Gulf while the Amphibious Ready Group that was there was sent to pull our people out of the Horn of Africa. The Ike had to turn around on their way home twice because they were mega afraid of the Iranians pulling something after the Soleimani assassination. This had a bunch of cascading effects:
1. It completely borked the normal strike group rotation in the Gulf by forcing the Ike to go immediately back into work ups upon returning home in order to maintain schedule which would
2. Bork their maintenance schedule which had to be expanded due to being at sea three months longer than expected AND
3. More importantly, gently caress the crew out of their post-deployment leave.

It doesn't help that the second order to have them turn back was advised against by everyone below SecDef in the Navy chain of command, but they told us to do it anyway.

Then there was the whole firing-CAPT Crozier-incident on the Teddy Roosevelt trying to find his crew a COVID port due to an outbreak on ship. Then, they made the smart decision of having the acting Secretary of the Navy go down to the ship and badmouth the guy over the 1MC right after Crozier got this going away from his crew due to his efforts.

So, yeah. A lot of sailors don't like him.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Misunderstood posted:

Biden winning among active duty personnel is kind of amazing to me. This is all a pretty loose theory, and I wonder if anybody with more experience than me with the military and/or conservatives could comment on it: it seems like Trump has very few fans among military brass, and while we only see that publicly among some of the very top generals, remember that everybody down the line is taking their cues from those men. And among all officers, the fact that they are educated is starting to override the fact that they trend authoritarian.

While the type of person who is willing to enlist is naturally going to trend conservative, I think a lot of enlisted folks tend to respect their commanding officers more than civilian politicians, and certainly more than any chickenhawks in right wing media. Where the 19 year old guy working at the grocery store might be hearing from his manager about how Trump is going to save them from the woke elites who want to jack up their taxes and give all their money to trans homeless drug addicts, a 19 year old in the Navy might be hearing grumbling about Trump's disrespect for regulations, tradition and discipline.

But I don't know - maybe it would be very inappropriate for an officer to talk about that kind of stuff, and the impression is spreading some different way? It could be that the military rank and file are changing their views based on their own correct perception of what is in their own best interest, as people who want to get to the other side of their military careers alive, and as people who want to believe they are respected by the people who control their fates.

That’s a relatively long, poor, and rather superficial analysis.

In no way do you consider who is in the military demographically? Also how might different branches affect these patterns?

You assume officers are “authoritarian” why? That’s probably the one that bothers me most. Do you even have a vague idea of what being a senior officer entails?

You know everyone in the military takes an oath to the constitution? Folks take that rather seriously.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




The military times polls includes veterans. The old Fox News watching military retirees are old Fox News watching retirees and should be compared to that population.

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”
I was an officer in the Army through almost the entirety of Trump's term, and you will not hear any officers talking politics at work, especially around enlisted soldiers. Amongst themselves they might discuss it or make an offhandedly remark about something Trump did making our jobs more difficult.

A military times poll showed that officers disapproved of Trump from the beginning of his presidency and it has almost certainly gotten worse since then. At the the beginning of his presidency it was a big deal because there was this split between the political views of officers and enlisted, which is not something that had happened in the past. This was almost certainly the education divide playing out in the military.

Trump's behavior and statements towards the military throughout his term were more than enough to turn the enlisted troops against him.

I think one thing that all troops have in common with many people's college experience is living in and around lots of people from very diverse backgrounds, unlike a lot of people living in conservative areas, which I'm sure also has an impact on how people view the political parties.

Archonex
May 2, 2012

MY OPINION IS SEERS OF THE THRONE PROPAGANDA IGNORE MY GNOSIS-IMPAIRED RAMBLINGS

TGLT posted:

If Biden wanted to put actual pressure on Israel he could, instead of letting Blinken go out there talking about how there are no red lines while they pointedly refuse to call publicly for a ceasefire. He did it in 2021 and it worked, because at the end of the day Israel is a client state. Israel cannot do this without US backing.

Israel would absolutely try to cozy up to Russia or China if we outright started to treat them as a client state with no gloves on. Netanyahu's regime has made that much clear.

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"
People had very loud opinions about Obama IME, who was CiC for all of my time in as an enlisted person, but I also don’t think it happened at any higher of a clip then you’d see in non-military circles. I would guess ‘current or former enlisted’ is one of the most apolitical/non voting groups of people in the US in terms of voting:

https://www.fvap.gov/info/reports-surveys/StateoftheMilitaryVoter

This doesn’t make a distinction between enlisted/officer and is active duty, but I’d guarantee it’s more stark if the numbers to examine former/current enlisted voters existed.

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012
Both China and Russia are courting the Arab states, and while the dictators the US installed in those countries are fine with Israel, they still need some public consent; if either buddied up to Israel to safeguard a genocide, they'd be just as persona non-grata as Israel. This would especially be a problem for Russia, who has developed amiable ties with Iran and Lebanon.

That's not to say they wouldn't try, but it's not guaranteed. Especially as Israel doesn't actually offer much; they're an air base, but neither country is plane-brained enough to assert bases in every corner of the globe like the US. Their consumer market is small and the products that aren't subsidized by their patron amount to knick-knacks and questionable miltech. It's a small benefit in exchange for a massive blow to their reputation in every non-white non-India nation.

All this is to say: the Biden administration is not hamstrung by Israel threatening to break free. It's hamstrung by Biden being a genuine Zionist.

stir up trouble
Mar 14, 2022

this is of course anecdotal but my brother is a major in the Air Force and talks politics a lot with our family who are pretty liberal to left-liberal Bernie Sanders types.

taking their oath to the constitution seriously is one thing but man they really do not like when dumbshit policy changes and decisions gently caress up their logistics, planning etc.

my impression is that officers are basically middle managers, and they get supremely annoyed when leadership fucks with their business

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Bar Ran Dun posted:

That’s a relatively long, poor, and rather superficial analysis.
I don’t really understand why you’re reacting as if I was presenting a fully formed hypothesis. I asked the question so that I could learn more about it. I outright said I didn’t really know what I was talking about; and that it it was a theory, and I would like to know more from people who know about poo poo. The post above yours is an example of the kind of response I was looking for, and I really appreciated it.

So I will give you “superficial,” and even “poor,” but I dispute “long” and “analysis.”

In describing officers as “trending authoritarian;” I was inferring that from their devotion of their professional lives to an inherently authoritarian, inflexibly hierarchical organization. (Which sounds judgy but I'm really not trying to say it that way.) You're right - that doesn’t necessarily reflect their personal philosophy, and I’m sure the range of feeling is as wide as it is among civilians, hence why I said “trend” and not “are.”

The youth, relative poverty, and racial diversity of the enlisted did occur to me; again, I was basing the generalization off their willingness to join those organizations in the first place, which does say something significant about a person, but I was probably also being somewhat Eurocentric in my worldview - the percentage of the military that is white, I would imagine, is generally conservative, like white civilians, especially those who are only high school graduates. But that's only barely over half of enlisted.

And I didn’t intend to disparage the constitutional oath or suggest it's not taken seriously. It’s nice to be reminded it means so much to the people who take it.

tl;dr, I kind of mentally put military personnel in a mental bucket with first responders like cops and firefighters who tend to be very conservative - but I suppose that’s not completely accurate. And I don't know much about what it's actually like to be in the military, and I like it when goons tell me about it, instead of asking me pointed rhetorical questions.

----

e: It's just... I didn't base my assumptions of a conservative lean in the military on nothing. Looking into it a bit, historically the military has tilted Republican, if not nearly as much as like, cops or housewives. Enlisted have tended to be much more liberal than officers, who appeared to be extremely conservative until recently (as you would expect from any group that exercises power and is disproportionately male and white*), but Trump has made himself very unpopular among officers by directly loving with their work and making their lives harder. That's a real sea change.

(* Just so you don't misinterpret this as me claiming all military officers are white, or something: officers are >70% white non-hispanic [and higher in the past, obviously], nation is <60% white. The most Democratic leaning demographic in the country, African Americans, is underrepresented by half [~6% vs. ~12%.] The racial composition of the officer corps does not work the advantage of liberals, even if it's far from the only factor that matters...)

Mustang posted:

I was an officer in the Army through almost the entirety of Trump's term, and you will not hear any officers talking politics at work, especially around enlisted soldiers. Amongst themselves they might discuss it or make an offhandedly remark about something Trump did making our jobs more difficult.
I'm not surprised officers are very careful not to talk about politics, and I understand that pretty much everybody in the military is devoted to the idea of keeping politics out of what they do. But I do wonder if those off-hand "well boys, ol' Donny's got us doing this now..." type remarks, in the wake of yet another transparently annoying executive order, do add up over time, and represent a significant influence on their charges, even if they're not directly expressed to them.

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Nov 12, 2023

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.

Misunderstood posted:

Biden winning among active duty personnel is kind of amazing to me. This is all a pretty loose theory, and I wonder if anybody with more experience than me with the military and/or conservatives could comment on it: it seems like Trump has very few fans among military brass, and while we only see that publicly among some of the very top generals, remember that everybody down the line is taking their cues from those men. And among all officers, the fact that they are educated is starting to override the fact that they trend authoritarian.

While the type of person who is willing to enlist is naturally going to trend conservative, I think a lot of enlisted folks tend to respect their commanding officers more than civilian politicians, and certainly more than any chickenhawks in right wing media. Where the 19 year old guy working at the grocery store might be hearing from his manager about how Trump is going to save them from the woke elites who want to jack up their taxes and give all their money to trans homeless drug addicts, a 19 year old in the Navy might be hearing grumbling about Trump's disrespect for regulations, tradition and discipline.

But I don't know - maybe it would be very inappropriate for an officer to talk about that kind of stuff, and the impression is spreading some different way? It could be that the military rank and file are changing their views based on their own correct perception of what is in their own best interest, as people who want to get to the other side of their military careers alive, and as people who want to believe they are respected by the people who control their fates.

The higher ups in the military know that Trump is a loving idiot, full stop, and don't want to risk their lives or their enlisted men for him. He stands for everything they're supposed to be fighting against and the higher ranks know this. You typically don't get to become an officer if your view of the world starts and ends with "nuke em all" or genuinely appreciate and embrace the most violent solutions to first world problems. Typically. That sort of thinking gets soldiers killed and MOST officers are not huge fans of that.

Armchair warriors, FB posters and the people they elect who have no idea what war is like are. There's also a disproportionate number of minority representation in the military who have their own ideas about "freedom" and when it's worth fighting for, who are often the first ones put on the front lines to face gunfire.

You have a lot of enlisted who just want to murder people but those types don't normally rise through the ranks and get to make decisions.

I don't see how anyone who's enlisted would support Trump and can't wait to die for a spoiled rich man but they're there and, in some cases, useful but commanders don't normally enjoy getting their men killed.

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

Tiny Timbs posted:

It’s so loving dumb to try to hold hypocrisy against people as if they don’t know what they’re doing. It’s trying to appeal to some higher form of justice that doesn’t exist.

I disagree. Pointing out that someone is saying one thing or doing another, or is inconsistent in reasoning is important. I believe it does change minds, and to do otherwise is to act as if the truth doesn't actually matter.

DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Nov 12, 2023

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Misunderstood posted:

In describing officers as “trending authoritarian;” I was inferring that from their devotion of their professional lives to an inherently authoritarian, inflexibly hierarchical organization. (Which sounds judgy but I'm really not trying to say it that way.) You're right - that doesn’t necessarily reflect their personal philosophy, and I’m sure the range of feeling is as wide as it is among civilians, hence why I said “trend” and not “are.”

Senior Military officers directly participate in local governments in a much more serious way than you seem to be aware of. It varies by service with the coast guard being by far the most involved, but if one is an officer at a base in the US there is an assload of community involvement one does. Coast guard goes to harbor safety meetings, they show up at port events, they attended waterfront environmental meetings etc. Any way a base is interacting with a community that it is in, generally an officer is going to be at meetings or on boards for those functions.

This starts about O-3 and general falls off after O-6. But military officers generally stay the involved types after retirement and continue participating in non for profits, service organizations, churches, local and county government boards, etc basically until they physically can’t

You don’t seem to know this. This is a very obvious thing that is generally extremely visible in local politics and to any one who knows officers. Rather than inherently “authoritarian” there is usually a great deal of direct involvement with local government as one of a collection of voices in the community. Better senior officers will often start training junior officers in how interact with this type of thing by getting them involved as early as O-2. At the service academy it started even before that.

Furthermore this is extremely American and it’s been a big part of the culture basically since WWII. Part of the job is participating in democracy.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
Ok, I think you are applying a more specific and more expressly political meaning to “authoritarian” than I am. At no point was any slight meant, beyond whatever the slight towards any group is when you accurately describe them as leaning Republican.

If you take it off the left-right spectrum it is clear the military has many values that are the direct opposite of Trumpism, and that’s good news for the country.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Authoritarian is always an expressly political word.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Misunderstood posted:

Look, I don't agree with Biden, broadly, about Israel. I didn't on October 6, either. Biden, like most people his age, is a Zionist - that's a problem. He takes "Israel has a right to exist" as an axiom and has never bothered to ask himself the "...wait, why?" follow-up question most people born since 1980 have. You are never going to have the right approach to the conflict if you are a true believer in Zionism. Even if the entire over-50 portion of the American body politic didn't have lovely views that made anti-Zionism politically toxic, Biden has his own lovely views that would be standing in the way of doing the right thing. I don't think Biden is a believer in justice for Gaza, I just don't think he has to be to be horrified by what has gone on the last month.

I'm not sure I understand this paragraph or what it has to do with anything. Ostensibly all countries have a right to exist, that's what it means to recognize states as being meaningfully sovereign entities. You don't need to be a zionist to look at a map and agree that Israel should be a name that exists on it with some recognized boundary; Biden's support for Israel isn't couched in some "zionist" ideology or some true belief in Zionism, but in a basic set of facts that Israel currently is (a) a country (b) a US military ally/partner (c) generally friendly to the US and broadly a part of being "the West".

Ostensibly the US would as an "Empire" would like it if there was some ostensible "peace in the Middle-East" because being an Empire in decline, the US's energies and resources are finite, and it would be a lot less resources if Israel wasn't antagonizing its neighbours. Biden's not doing the right thing because the right thing is contrary to his political interests; which is winning reelection and also not alienating a key partner/ally in the region. Where decades ago Reagan was apparently with a single phone call able to reign in Israel excessive military force; the US was much stronger and the leadership of both Israel and the US were more rational in this sense. Bibi is a far right true believer and Biden is sadly not all that strong as a US political leader, and most people unfortunately buy into rather simplistic narratives about the IP conflict which has contributed to Israel's far right government getting away with a lot more literal murder.

In any case the right approach to the conflict in a more perfect world would've been to force Israel to stay on course for the Oslo Accords roadmap and in respecting the two-state solution and punishing the government for expanding illegal settlements; this could be accomplished while still supporting Israel's "right to exist" and legitimate security concerns.

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer

DeadlyMuffin posted:

I disagree. Pointing out that someone is saying one thing or doing another, or is inconsistent in reasoning is important. I believe it does change minds, and to do otherwise is to act as if the truth doesn't actually matter.

This is incorrect. One can simultaneously believe that the truth matters and that a sizable portion of the American population believes the truth doesn't matter. No amount of owning the fascists with examples of their hypocrisy will actually do anything. A majority of Louisiana Republicans in 2010 blamed Obama for the Hurricane Katrina response. These people are fundamentally liars and everyone has known it for over a decade. Posting example #4,860,387 isn't going to move the needle at all. The WaPo at one point maintained a sourced database of Trump's documented lies and it was over 30,000 the last time I checked- yet he's by far the favorite to win the nomination. Point and laugh sure, but don't be so naive as to think pointing out hypocrisy will change anyone's mind in 2023.

AlternateNu
May 5, 2005

ドーナツダメ!

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Senior Military officers directly participate in local governments in a much more serious way than you seem to be aware of. It varies by service with the coast guard being by far the most involved, but if one is an officer at a base in the US there is an assload of community involvement one does. Coast guard goes to harbor safety meetings, they show up at port events, they attended waterfront environmental meetings etc. Any way a base is interacting with a community that it is in, generally an officer is going to be at meetings or on boards for those functions.

This starts about O-3 and general falls off after O-6. But military officers generally stay the involved types after retirement and continue participating in non for profits, service organizations, churches, local and county government boards, etc basically until they physically can’t

You don’t seem to know this. This is a very obvious thing that is generally extremely visible in local politics and to any one who knows officers. Rather than inherently “authoritarian” there is usually a great deal of direct involvement with local government as one of a collection of voices in the community. Better senior officers will often start training junior officers in how interact with this type of thing by getting them involved as early as O-2. At the service academy it started even before that.

Furthermore this is extremely American and it’s been a big part of the culture basically since WWII. Part of the job is participating in democracy.

:confused:

While its true military folks volunteer in the community at slightly higher rates than the general public, the ubiquity you seem to be implying is vastly overblown.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




AlternateNu posted:

:confused:

While its true military folks volunteer in the community at slightly higher rates than the general public, the ubiquity you seem to be implying is vastly overblown.

That’s because I’m taking about senior officers, not the military in general. This is specially about commissioned officers O-3 and above. It is not about enlisted.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Nov 12, 2023

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

If yall get a military times poll to only break that close to Trump's favor then poo poo changed pretty wildly already

2008 among active duty it was just short of 80%-20%

Now based on what I'm looking at it's like about half of all servicepeople loving hate him, and his base of absolute loyalists shrunk to about 25%

trump managing to work his way down to minority support in one of the most traditional, important, "horny for conservative leaders" groups in the country, bless that man

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Raenir Salazar posted:

I'm not sure I understand this paragraph or what it has to do with anything. Ostensibly all countries have a right to exist, that's what it means to recognize states as being meaningfully sovereign entities. You don't need to be a zionist to look at a map and agree that Israel should be a name that exists on it with some recognized boundary; Biden's support for Israel isn't couched in some "zionist" ideology or some true belief in Zionism, but in a basic set of facts that Israel currently is (a) a country (b) a US military ally/partner (c) generally friendly to the US and broadly a part of being "the West".
Oh gosh, I just keep getting all kinds of heat for word choice today. :v:

On the one hand, I largely agree with you.

On the other: "I am a Zionist" - Joe Biden

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

Staluigi posted:

If yall get a military times poll to only break that close to Trump's favor then poo poo changed pretty wildly already

2008 among active duty it was just short of 80%-20%

Now based on what I'm looking at it's like about half of all servicepeople loving hate him, and his base of absolute loyalists shrunk to about 25%

trump managing to work his way down to minority support in one of the most traditional, important, "horny for conservative leaders" groups in the country, bless that man

The vibe I got from knowing a few is there just aren't a lot of career military personnel who don't have their own "That was the dumbest loving order I've ever received" story from 2016 to 2020. It really takes more than a give em hell attitude to earn the respect of people like that

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Community volunteerism gets pushed incredibly hard at the enlisted and at the O1-O3 levels. It’s actually baked into the promotion and recognition process. In many units you will be passed over for opportunities if somebody has more volunteer activities than you.

At higher ranks you will see enlisted and officers coordinate with community government on all sorts of things, but that’s not so much volunteerism as it is having to maintain good relations with the community around the base.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Misunderstood posted:

Oh gosh, I just keep getting all kinds of heat for word choice today. :v:

On the one hand, I largely agree with you.

On the other: "I am a Zionist" - Joe Biden

I think though that most people have a different idea of what "Zionist" means. Much like how "Socialist" has many different meanings from Maoist to social democrats, I suspect Biden probably doesn't think it means anything more than "wants a safe secure homeland for jews in Israel".

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Raenir Salazar posted:

I think though that most people have a different idea of what "Zionist" means. Much like how "Socialist" has many different meanings from Maoist to social democrats, I suspect Biden probably doesn't think it means anything more than "wants a safe secure homeland for jews in Israel".
Yeah, that's fair, I understand how it can come across like "Biden supports annexing the Golan Heights!" when it pretty much means "he thinks it's a good thing there is a Jewish state in that location." The word carries a little extra juice because it's been a favorite of anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists, which makes it inflammatory despite being a theoretically purely descriptive word.

CMD598
Apr 12, 2013
A lot of tl;Dr about military but I'll say this:

The things the average enlisted and junior O notices is gonna be deployment cycles, cancelled ports for nebulous reasons, leave time, sudden shift in messaging, pay, and political dog and pony shows like inventing an entire new branch out of thin air.

As I've been mostly deploying in Asia for like a decade I definitely noticed when places we used to go yearly are suddenly iffy or gone entirely, when a port gets cancelled 2 days out because China moved a boat off the pier a thousand miles away, and when what was formerly a booze cruise is suddenly filled with a lot of talk about ~The Mission~ instead of booze. Oh and Crozier getting axed definitely made waves, lol fly some dickhead in a suit halfway around the world to yell at someone while I eat tortilla chips or *A* pancake for dinner and then go cry myself to sleep behind transparent curtains in the casket sized metal box I call home.

I'd also just go ahead and delete political concepts like authoritarianism or patriotism from the argument entirely. Most people join because they're too dumb or stubborn to get a normal job. If you want to be an authoritarian dickbag you can just be a cop...it's easier and probably pays better.

Rookersh
Aug 19, 2010
I mean a lot of this is also missing the very obvious answer. Which is that the military skews young, and the youth of today skew even farther left.

I don't think the military starting to become more and more leftist since the Trump years necessarily needs to be tied around his shoulders. The easiest answer is often the correct one. Trump's presidency coincides with a significantly more liberal/left leaning population enlisting. Shockingly enough, they push the envelope.

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



More leftist generation, senior officers taking their oaths particularly seriously, vanishingly few people at any rank wanting to use force on American civilians, and the dumbest, most annoying, disruptive orders anyone has ever received surely all play some part in the Santorum of Trump's military polling.

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Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
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I ain't never served but my sister did and she hates trump for all the right reasons and will never forgive what he did to the kurds

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