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I feel like the housing issues are something a competent legislature would be studying intensely and working on solutions for. For instance: is corporate purchasing of single family homes and the consolidation of local rental markets driving part of the supply issues? If so, maybe craft some legislation addressing that. Instead we have a bunch of idiots slinging poo poo at each other and unable to govern their own legislative body let alone do anything productive or meaningful for the 300 million people they’re representing. I did find this: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R47628.pdf#page7 But I can’t find any evidence congress has done anything but talk about the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act which is more tax incentive bullshit to spit out more houses instead of taking a systemic approach to identifying and correcting what’s happened the past couple years.
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Nov 14, 2023 16:43
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zoux posted:To me this seemed like unambiguously positive news for the economy but I checked wikipedia and the current president is a Democrat The US: still not a command economy
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Nov 14, 2023 16:44
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Nervous posted:Pictured: American groceries You can't even find big bags of Halloween chocolate in stores now. Thanks Biden! 
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Nov 14, 2023 16:50
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Republican House vibes are so bad right now https://twitter.com/cgrisales/status/1724453535184551958 https://twitter.com/cgrisales/status/1724455222095782116 We're going to see a fist fight between two members of the same caucus on the House floor at some point.
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Nov 14, 2023 16:55
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come to house republican cloakroom in the next 20 minutes if u want an rear end kicking
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Nov 14, 2023 16:57
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i am a moron posted:I feel like the housing issues are something a competent legislature would be studying intensely and working on solutions for. For instance: is corporate purchasing of single family homes and the consolidation of local rental markets driving part of the supply issues? If so, maybe craft some legislation addressing that. Instead we have a bunch of idiots slinging poo poo at each other and unable to govern their own legislative body let alone do anything productive or meaningful for the 300 million people they’re representing. The three big problems with housing policy are: - There's not a ton the federal government can do directly except undergo the huge expense of literally buying land, building housing, becoming a de facto landlord, and hoping people move to where they build. This is both risky from a financial, political, and strategic point of view and also not something that has a realistic chance of happening over the objections of state and local governments. - Housing has a large constituency of people (current homeowners, landlords, and people terrified of change/traffic/noise/crime/new people) that are vehemently against higher density construction. Whereas, the pro-higher density political muscle is sort of a diluted group of people that want general increased density and loosened zoning policy rather than specific buildings to be built. Having concrete demands and opposing change are much easier. - Almost all zoning laws are done at the local or state levels. The people most invested or involved in zoning and housing laws are the people with current property in the area. Similar to the second bullet point, it is incredibly difficult to organize people at all these various disparate levels of government across the country to push for those types of laws. But, you don't really need any outside organized to get people in different areas to get mad about their property values, rental income, changing the "character" of the neighborhood, etc. The areas with the biggest housing problems generally don't have enough empty land to build significant amounts of new housing. Instead, you usually have to convert existing properties into more dense housing units. That is another huge hurdle because you have to get a lot of people to sell their house, get zoning laws changed, and it is much more expensive to get everything up to code and build new on an existing lot than it is to just build on an empty spot of land. States have taken control away from the local governments to allow denser residential housing in a few places - California being the big one and they only just did it recently - so it isn't impossible, but it hasn't happened in many places yet and is fairly difficult. The "good" thing about ignoring/making the problem worse for the last 40 years is that housing policy is becoming a more salient political issue as the problem gets worse. Previously, it was essentially never mentioned in state or national politics because it was a "local issue" that didn't matter.
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Nov 14, 2023 16:58
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zoux posted:Republican House vibes are so bad right now Someone mail both of them some canes
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Nov 14, 2023 17:01
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In terms of housing prices and the CPI, bear in mind that the methodology used to estimate housing prices leads to a significant lag for the contribution of housing to the CPI. In comparison, the item that caused the greatest downward pressure on the M/M change in CPI, a 5% decline in gasoline prices, reflects something much closer to real time prices. Here is a dissertation arguing that this treatment of housing prices leads to suboptimal monetary policy. https://www.proquest.com/openview/172251dfc89cfb1872e67cb4a9bc9e3c/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
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Nov 14, 2023 17:12
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These are all really good points, but at the same time doesn’t it all kind of rest on the sole driver of housing costs being supply issues that are outside of the governments control? Maybe it really is that simple.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:16
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plogo posted:In terms of housing prices and the CPI, bear in mind that the methodology used to estimate housing prices leads to a significant lag for the contribution of housing to the CPI. In comparison, the item that caused the greatest downward pressure on the M/M change in CPI, a 5% decline in gasoline prices, reflects something much closer to real time prices. That is all true with regards to getting up-to-the-minute data on housing prices and using that to base decisions on monetary policy, but the problem with real prices in housing is primarily a supply and demand one. Even if inflation in general goes down due to several years of wage/price reorganization, supply chain fixes, etc., housing prices are likely to stay high - especially in the places where people actually want to live with low density - unless lots of people stop wanting to live there or they build a significant amount of new housing. If 16 million people want to live in New York, but there are only 5 million available housing units, then that is never going to "correct" itself on price unless many people stop wanting to live there or there are many more houses. You can still get a house for $40,000 in Youngstown, Ohio and hundreds of other places in the U.S. It's just that nobody wants to live there because there are no jobs, luxuries, public services, etc. The physical object of the house isn't becoming significantly more valuable, it's the land it is on and the amount of people who want to be there being out of whack that is causing houses to become more valuable. You can only fix that by changing those two factors to balance out. i am a moron posted:These are all really good points, but at the same time doesn’t it all kind of rest on the sole driver of housing costs being supply issues that are outside of the governments control? Maybe it really is that simple. They are mostly outside of the federal government's control. The federal government can do still do things, especially if the state and local governments are supportive, but it just doesn't have a ton of DIRECT ways to create new housing in specific areas. It is almost entirely in the control of state and local governments, so it isn't "out of the government's control," it's just (mostly) the federal government. The local and state governments could theoretically life these requirements right now and allow your neighbor to sell their house to someone who is going to build a 200-unit apartment building on their plot tonight. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 17:24
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The article itself is a lot clearer than the headline, but it's also not technically wrong. Almost nothing is going to be cheaper (in absolute dollars) than pre-pandemic long-term. This was also going to be the case even without a pandemic, but inflation is usually slow enough that people don't notice it all at once. To be fair, food inflation last year was incredibly high, peaking at 13.5% YOY last summer, nearly twice what it was in the last big recession. Only electricity was higher, at 15%, aside from gasoline and natural gas (60% and 38%, respectively), but those commodities are way more volatile and have hit similar numbers multiple times in the last two decades; food has not. Even though its inflation is back down too, that left it at a much higher baseline than everything but energy, so it's no wonder grocery costs remain notable for people in a way that other costs aren't.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:27
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Forgot to attach my SA-brand image attachment 
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Nov 14, 2023 17:28
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Fuschia tude posted:To be fair, food inflation last year was incredibly high, peaking at 13.5% YOY last summer, nearly twice what it was in the last big recession. Only electricity was higher, at 15%, aside from gasoline and natural gas (60% and 38%, respectively), but those commodities are way more volatile and have hit similar numbers multiple times in the last two decades; food has not. Even though its inflation is back down too, that left it at a much higher baseline than everything but energy, so it's no wonder grocery costs remain notable for people in a way that other costs aren't. Yeah, I mentioned why food specifically is a real problem and outlier at the bottom of the post: Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Food is also the one area that is legitimately above average for inflation and coming down much more slowly. That is partially due to still feeling supply chain impacts from covid and Ukraine. That is a real problem without an easy or fast solution as well.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:28
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i am a moron posted:I feel like the housing issues are something a competent legislature would be studying intensely and working on solutions for. For instance: is corporate purchasing of single family homes and the consolidation of local rental markets driving part of the supply issues? If so, maybe craft some legislation addressing that. Instead we have a bunch of idiots slinging poo poo at each other and unable to govern their own legislative body let alone do anything productive or meaningful for the 300 million people they’re representing. The main driver of the housing issue is that we're just not building enough housing. Housing construction plummeted after the Great Recession, and didn't really start to recover to pre-recession levels until the 2020s. In 2005, more than 2 million housing units began construction in the US. In 2009, less than 600k new builds were started. The yearly new units built didn't break 1 million again until 2014, and didn't break 1.5 million until 2021. And by the way, you can expect that number to start trending downward again in 2023. The Fed cranking interest rates through the roof is making new mortgages quite expensive, which is depressing the housing market. Aside from that, housing is fundamentally a local/regional issue. It's not that there isn't enough housing in the US - it's that there isn't enough housing in the specific places that a ton of people want to live in. A number of cities are having this problem at the same time, for similar reasons, but it's fundamentally a problem that these cities have to deal with.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:28
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Main Paineframe posted:The main driver of the housing issue is that we're just not building enough housing. Housing construction plummeted after the Great Recession, and didn't really start to recover to pre-recession levels until the 2020s. It's actually worse than these numbers indicate, too, because the construction that is happening has shifted almost entirely to upper tier/luxury construction. Before the 2000s, it wasn't uncommon to see more than 30% of new home construction being various types of affordable starter home. Last I checked, that class of construction was in the low single digits, around 4%. Those are the kind of homes that drive prices down in the market, because without them being available people need to buy more expensive homes and everyone gets shifted up the scale. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The three big problems with housing policy are There is actually quite a bit a hypothetical federal government can do - reducing housing pressure anywhere works to reduce it everywhere to some extent, and as you point out there are ways they can work with state and local governments to improve things in some locations and thus improve things everywhere, and they can also introduce a variety of incentives for new construction along with restrictions on, for example, foreign and cross border corporate owned housing purchases. The government is actually quite capable of solving even complex problems like this if they want to, even when the solutions are not obvious or easy. And its not like we'd be treading new ground with even more extreme proposals - the PWA and Wagner-Steagall and the Fair Deal housing act and everything that came out of them already blazed that trail. We are just choosing not to do any of that now. Our current government, of course, can't even solve easy problems with immediate and obvious solutions, so none of that is happening, but its certainly doable. GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 17:50
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Isn't a decent chunk of runaway housing costs the various corporations and management companies using software and apps to "inadvertently" collude and maximize profits?Hieronymous Alloy posted:Someone mail both of them some canes Tempting as it is to mail 221 Gutta-percha canes to Congress, I fear that arming the cowards would simply temporarily aggravate their bully instincts as they unite to fight the unarmed Democrats. Maybe just give everyone but Gaetz one and see what happens. Gyges fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 17:52
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Gyges posted:Isn't a decent chunk of runaway housing costs the various corporations and management companies using software and apps to "inadvertently" collude and maximize profits? That is a rapidly growing part of the issue in the rental market, but not objectively a large amount right now. Institutional investors bought up about 25% of sales last year that became rental units, but they still only own about 1.5% of the total housing stock. It is a slightly larger chunk of the rental market stock. The main drive is basically 40 years of policies that maximized home value, encouraged sprawl (both urban and suburban), and prevented new high-density construction coming home to roost + the construction industry not recovering from the triple punch of the global financial crisis, covid, and rising interest rates.
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Nov 14, 2023 17:58
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Gyges posted:Tempting as it is to mail 221 Gutta-percha canes to Congress, I fear that arming the cowards would simply temporarily aggravate their bully instincts as they unite to fight the unarmed Democrats. That's why you mail 435 canes
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Nov 14, 2023 17:59
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The data on it are quite compelling.   It's as if there's a relationship between supply, demand, and prices... I can only speak to Austin municipal policy but there's been a strong pro-yimby shift here. We've seen zoning and reg reforms like permitting multiple structures on single-family lots and removing parking space requirements for new developments. Build more housing! https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1724469208728195430/history Literally fite me irl poo poo, in a Senate HELP committee. Republicans are children. (Bonus Bernie Banging Gavel) zoux fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 17:59
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GlyphGryph posted:It's actually worse than these numbers indicate, too, because the construction that is happening has shifted almost entirely to upper tier/luxury construction. Before the 2000s, it wasn't uncommon to see more than 30% of new home construction being various types of affordable starter home. Last I checked, that class of construction was in the low single digits, around 4%. Those are the kind of homes that drive prices down in the market, because without them being available people need to buy more expensive homes and everyone gets shifted up the scale. Gyges posted:Isn't a decent chunk of runaway housing costs the various corporations and management companies using software and apps to "inadvertently" collude and maximize profits? That you can have a surplus of luxury homes that goes immediately into stock for AirBNB and robo-landlord estates is a function of the system. Young couples buying cost-effective homes to live and sell to new young couples as they climb the property ladder are not the core market.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:03
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1724469208728195430/history Christ on a bike... Love that Bernie scolding, kinda wanted to hear what else he was gonna say. Something about that tired old man Brooklyn accent seems pretty effective at defusing other people's bullshit
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Nov 14, 2023 18:21
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zoux posted:Republican House vibes are so bad right now I mean, I bet there would have been a lot less rotating villainy if someone had beaten Manchin within an inch of his life with a cane 1800s style.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:23
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TBH housing is hosed almost everywhere in the developed world.  I haven't done rigurous reserach but my impression is that a) this is mainly affecting in-demand areas like top cities b) limited supply in those cities not matching the demand c) people viewing housing as an investment instead of a place where you live. The last one is a biggie imo because it not only drives nimby poo poo but also public policy in regards to a) & b). A few months ago I talked to a colleague and in the past couple of years they bought two apartmetns (in addition to the house they live in) as investment properties. Housing staying flat or becoming relatively cheaper would be a disaster for them. YMMV of course but there's gently caress all construction going on here and what is build tends 4-5 floor buildings. I actually remember looking into this years ago and there were some studies showing that much taller buildings made sense economically. I was able to find the paper, it's pretty old now but best I have found to date  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228267863_Determining_Optimal_Building_Height
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Nov 14, 2023 18:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That is all true with regards to getting up-to-the-minute data on housing prices and using that to base decisions on monetary policy, but the problem with real prices in housing is primarily a supply and demand one. I agree with much of what you are saying, housing prices are a big problem. However, I was making the point that the housing contribution to inflation, the largest contributor to inflation on a year-over-year basis, reflects increased prices in housing that ALREADY occurred ~6 months ago and reflects an underestimate of prior inflation, because those CPI numbers had housing inflation TOO LOW. In 6 months or so, we will know what the current contribution of housing to inflation is, in the data released today. Or you can try to impute the current contribution of housing prices to inflation using alternative data sources.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:29
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1724469208728195430/history  that he thought SOB would just back down.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:30
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zoux posted:
https://twitter.com/TeamsterSOB/sta...genumber%3D4412 this is tweet that made the chud big mad. you can see why. zoux posted:Republican House vibes are so bad right now yeah the progressive cacuse signed off on the clean CR so that means the dems help the GOP pass the CR, which means johnson might get tossed again. we are gonna see a congress fight before next election. hopefully on film.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:31
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https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1724480534007382158 I dunno to me it looked like when he stood up and said lets settle this, he was trying to start a fight. Because that's how you start a fight, it's the most basic way.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:34
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Sounds like we should stop making guys senators then
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Nov 14, 2023 18:35
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1724480534007382158 To be fair to Senator Shorty, are you really trying to fight someone when you posture up 20 feet and 2 barriers away while knowing everyone else in the room is going to stop you? Edit: Here's the whole six and a half minute confrontation between Mullin and O'Brien https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeS9I57tFVU Gyges fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 18:39
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Always love a Hold Me Back Bro when nobody holds them back
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Nov 14, 2023 18:49
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the_steve posted:I mean, I bet there would have been a lot less rotating villainy if someone had beaten Manchin within an inch of his life with a cane 1800s style. Or if rotating villainy was even a real thing.
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Nov 14, 2023 18:50
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That is loving hysterical. And Bernie has to tell him to shut the gently caress up and sit the gently caress down.
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Nov 14, 2023 19:07
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the teamster's follow up when things settle down a bit https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1724480595332608086 the energy in the capitol is so toxic right now, it makes all of the old "looks like those clowns in congress did it again" takes from decades passed look quaint the next year is going to be insufferable
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Nov 14, 2023 19:38
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the energy in the capitol is so toxic right now, it makes all of the old "looks like those clowns in congress did it again" takes from decades passed look quaint https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1724495205850620370 Did they have a caucus meeting today where they revealed the GOP dog died or something?
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Nov 14, 2023 19:41
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I'm very glad people are finally realizing Republicans do not deserve a single ounce of respect no matter what office they hold.
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Nov 14, 2023 19:45
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Angry_Ed posted:I'm very glad people are finally realizing Republicans do not deserve a single ounce of respect no matter what office they hold. No one that needs to realize that, has realized that. In any remotely sane society the GOP wouldn't be a highly competitive national party, and yet they are.
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Nov 14, 2023 19:50
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the teamster's follow up when things settle down a bit zoux posted:https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1724495205850620370 its because the GOP loving hate each other because the chuds and moral cowardice kept them from flushing trump and the foghorn bigotry down the toilet and now its been proven twice that abortion is loving poison pill for the GOP. now the freedom caucus wants a shutdown and they either get one or a clean CR is passed and johnson gets knifed and we see a whole new horror circus. i would not be shocked if internal polling looks as dire if not worse then bidens public polls because they all point to "trumps gonna win the primary and focus on himself and insane poo poo and thats not popular at all"
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Nov 14, 2023 19:52
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Given the quick shot, shot, shot nature of things so far, I'm kind of surprised MTG and Boebert, or anyone and Gaetz, haven't had a hissyfit on camera yet today.
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Nov 14, 2023 19:57
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Gyges posted:Given the quick shot, shot, shot nature of things so far, I'm kind of surprised MTG and Boebert, or anyone and Gaetz, haven't had a hissyfit on camera yet today. thats coming after the votes later today.
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Nov 14, 2023 20:02
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Men shouldn't be in power. They are too emotional.
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