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CommieGIR posted:Surely we won't overestimate Russia THIS time. Seeing as you constantly underestimate Russia, I don't think this is as big an own as you think it is.
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Nov 20, 2023 23:20
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CommieGIR posted:Surely we won't overestimate Russia THIS time. There were people saying Russia couldn't take Bakhmut. And saying that Russia would get routed back by the Ukrainian offensive. And that Russia wouldn't hold Crimea. And that Russia would collapse economically... There has been a ton of underestimating Russia throughout this war, even if Russia itself far, far overestimated their own capabilities and likelihood of pulling off some rapid and victorious war. Russia overestimated themselves (or underestimated Ukraine or both), but on the other hand a bunch of commentators and twitter users are just waiting for Russia to collapse any day now...
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Nov 20, 2023 23:21
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tiaz posted:I'm not sure I buy that whatever domestic optics they've spun up are the equivalent of the ones they were buying from France. All that said, though, I certainly agree we should send as much as they can use without damaging our own readiness. I'll be honest, what sort of "readiness" does most of Europe need? We're not going to be in any wars we don't start, or any interventions we don't opt into. Everyone west of Poland could strip their militaries completely to arm Ukraine without noticing anything except a year or so where their troops have to play pretend with cardboard boxes and broomsticks.
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Nov 20, 2023 23:34
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I think it's been made plain, even if in just rhetoric, that russia doesn't plan to stop at Ukraine
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Nov 20, 2023 23:39
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mlmp08 posted:There were people saying Russia couldn't take Bakhmut. And saying that Russia would get routed back by the Ukrainian offensive. And that Russia wouldn't hold Crimea. And that Russia would collapse economically... perpetually two weeks away from running out of tanks/shells/soldiers PurpleXVI posted:I'll be honest, what sort of "readiness" does most of Europe need? clearly nothing, no armed conflicts here or in the future, go ahead and disarm. I'm sure the americans will totally pick up the slack fr
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Nov 20, 2023 23:46
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CommieGIR posted:Russia is not producing new tanks or IFVs, they are digging up scrap metal from storage. They brought out T-64s for pete's sake. T-62:s. A modernized T-64 is a reasonably good tank in this conflict, but the T-62:s that Russia is digging up are just  .
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Nov 20, 2023 23:53
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Pine Cone Jones posted:I think it's been made plain, even if in just rhetoric, that russia doesn't plan to stop at Ukraine Luceid posted:clearly nothing, no armed conflicts here or in the future, go ahead and disarm. I'm sure the americans will totally pick up the slack fr ...I mean, the argument was obviously not to disarm permanently, because there are plenty of bad actors around, but currently the only big regional bad actor known for swinging their military dick around is busy getting mauled in Ukraine, so most of Europe could send 90% of their military stockpile to Ukraine and spend the time bought to re-arm, with no real danger, is my argument.
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Nov 20, 2023 23:56
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PurpleXVI posted:...I mean, the argument was obviously not to disarm permanently, because there are plenty of bad actors around, but currently the only big regional bad actor known for swinging their military dick around is busy getting mauled in Ukraine, so most of Europe could send 90% of their military stockpile to Ukraine and spend the time bought to re-arm, with no real danger, is my argument. And that’s when Belarus’s glorious army will roll out their triumphant conquest all the way west. Everybody always underestimates Batka, who’s playing the waiting game.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:10
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PurpleXVI posted:I'll be honest, what sort of "readiness" does most of Europe need? We're not going to be in any wars we don't start, or any interventions we don't opt into. Everyone west of Poland could strip their militaries completely to arm Ukraine without noticing anything except a year or so where their troops have to play pretend with cardboard boxes and broomsticks. Before 2014 Ukraine thought exactly the same.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:16
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mlmp08 posted:There were people saying Russia couldn't take Bakhmut. And saying that Russia would get routed back by the Ukrainian offensive. And that Russia wouldn't hold Crimea. And that Russia would collapse economically... Ukraine pretty much gave Russia Bakhmut but only after they made Russia pay dearly for what now amounts to a muddy patch of trash. The supposed toll for Bakhmut was 60,000 dead or wounded. I don't think anybody said they wouldn't get back Crimea, since that was 2014, but they are not having a fun time of it. The problem with reading too much into all this ramped up production is the same corruption is still present, the same level of lying about what they are actually capable of producing and in what quality or quantity. I'll believe they can pump out 90 tanks a month when 90 tanks start popping up in the theater. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 00:31 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 21, 2023 00:28
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CommieGIR posted:Russia is not producing new tanks or IFVs, they are digging up scrap metal from storage. They brought out T-64s for pete's sake. And most of their FPVs/Drones are coming from other sources and the overall quality has been meh. Russia is most definitely producing new tanks and IFVs, they're just producing them far below the rate they're being expended. At least, that's what powerpoint man tells me here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs obviously, this isn't definitive, but it's a fairly sober analysis what what Russia's production capabilities are by analyzing what hulls are being lost in Ukraine. As time goes on OSINT is seeing steadily reducing proportions of old and refurbished equipment and increasing proportions of what can almost certainly be new serial number hulls based on equipment models. Naturally, there's plenty of room for argument on how this doesn't represent a complete picture, or even perhaps that this may be misleading but all we have to go on is publicly sourced information.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:32
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A.o.D. posted:Russia is most definitely producing new tanks and IFVs, they're just producing them far below the rate they're being expended. I have no doubt they CAN produce new IFVs and Tanks. But I somehow doubt they got through all the grifting and are suddenly producing them en mass. And as that video points out - Russia's own claims are very vague about what they are achieving.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:34
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CommieGIR posted:I have no doubt they CAN produce new IFVs and Tanks. But I somehow doubt they got through all the grifting and are suddenly producing them en mass. And as that video points out - Russia's own claims are very vague about what they are achieving. That's true, but you stated pretty flatly that they're not producing new IFVs and Tanks, and they demonstrably are. If you mean they're not producing enough, or that they're not ramping up as much as they claim to be, my bad, maybe I misunderstood.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:37
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Are they producing them with like... functional electronics and optics? Honest question, last I heard they were especially tight with that part of their chain.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:38
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That Works posted:Are they producing them with like... functional electronics and optics? Honest question, last I heard they were especially tight with that part of their chain. The level of quality is speculated about, and I'm sure the people who need to know do, but I'm willing to bet it's somewhere between "not as good as the Russians would like but better than what the sanctions are trying to achieve".
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Nov 21, 2023 00:42
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That Works posted:Are they producing them with like... functional electronics and optics? Honest question, last I heard they were especially tight with that part of their chain. Where Russia gets caught in a lie is that they originally claimed they were building brand new tanks (I think they later recanted and said upgrade/refit). What most of the reports are on the battlefield is that they have been retrofitting and upgrading existing tanks (to varying degree/quality) and then sending them forward. So are they running the most top of the line optics out there? Not across the board at all. Are they running 1960s sights? Not really that either. But the age old tale of "a lovely tank is better than no tank" remains true. And artillery, land mines, and ATGMs have been doing a hell of a lot of work in this war in general for both Ukraine and Russia, so a focus on tanks might not be that important anyway.
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Nov 21, 2023 00:49
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There's not much point in assuming the best case scenario for Russian production capability, though. Far better to overestimate them, ramp up domestic weapons production, give Ukraine all the munitions they can fire, and beat the poo poo out of the invaders. I don't really see a drawback to that approach. What does it matter if it's an overestimate of Russia's capabilities and intent? Overcatering means you smashing them utterly, which is win/win for everone, while underestimating them and supplying too little ends badly for everyone.
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Nov 21, 2023 02:00
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Hyperlynx posted:There's not much point in assuming the best case scenario for Russian production capability, though. Far better to overestimate them, ramp up domestic weapons production, give Ukraine all the munitions they can fire, and beat the poo poo out of the invaders. I don't really see a drawback to that approach. Neoliberal states want to know what the minimum viable product is re:fighting a loving war lol
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Nov 21, 2023 02:02
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Luceid posted:Neoliberal states want to know what the minimum viable product is re:fighting a loving war lol I'm honestly shocked that Six Sigma never took greater root in the military. It's got all the cultish trappings to really capture the heart of the officer class.
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Nov 21, 2023 02:23
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GD_American posted:I'm honestly shocked that Six Sigma never took greater root in the military. It's got all the cultish trappings to really capture the heart of the officer class. McNamera
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Nov 21, 2023 02:32
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Even if Russia can only produce a meager 5 tanks and train up a dozen old men a month, Ukraine will struggle to maintain the conflict if the West has only managed to scrounge up the munitions necessary to render one of the tanks and three of the soldiers unfit for continued operations in the same time frame. I'm just regurgitating things heard third-hand, but it sounds like major players in the West needs to take more concrete steps to ensure the future sustainability of both the liberation of occupied territory and the defense of the lines as they stand today. Feels an awful lot like the shock of the initial invasion wearing off and leaders slipping back towards complacency. Up to their constituents to light a fire under their rear end to get things moving again.
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Nov 21, 2023 02:36
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GD_American posted:I'm honestly shocked that Six Sigma never took greater root in the military. It's got all the cultish trappings to really capture the heart of the officer class. Its still a big bullet point for acquisition weenies for some reason.
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Nov 21, 2023 02:41
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A.o.D. posted:The level of quality is speculated about, and I'm sure the people who need to know do, but I'm willing to bet it's somewhere between "not as good as the Russians would like but better than what the sanctions are trying to achieve". Yeah Ukrainians have captured latest production optics and if they were in any way non-functional we would've heard them messaging that all over the place. Instead we heard about how Europeans manufactured components were still ending up in them. That's come up a bunch of times now with different weapon systems (and not just European, American made components as well) and I've heard very little in any direction about how effective efforts have been to stop that flow of components. That's why I brought up the relative lack of missile strikes in the last month and whether or not they're being saved for later in the winter or not: I'm skeptical that the flow of parts has actually been effectively interdicted because previously they've unfortunately been quite resourceful about acquiring sanctioned components, but if it had been effective we'd see the first indications of it by a continued absence of the systems in question. Hyperlynx posted:There's not much point in assuming the best case scenario for Russian production capability, though. Far better to overestimate them, ramp up domestic weapons production, give Ukraine all the munitions they can fire, and beat the poo poo out of the invaders. I don't really see a drawback to that approach. Yeah it's expensive enough that it's politically difficult but if the goal is for Ukraine to win then there isn't really any alternative. WRT Russian production I'll note two things: first, over the last year there have been a number of articles from Russian media about difficulties faced in scaling up production (eg manpower shortages, pay not being competitive or as on-time as it needs to be, inconsistently being able to run production for maximum weekly shifts, etc.). Second, having struggles scaling it up suggests that production is actually scaling up, which is generally consistent with everything else we know. Some elements of their production are definitely hindered, but there's a ton of production that can happen regardless of sanctions and they've now had nearly two years to establish workarounds. I've also seen a lot less about non-competitive salaries for defense production jobs (and in some cases there's apparently been a swing in the other direction where the salaries are now good enough that its causing or exacerbating other labor shortages in Russia). Basically I'm saying that many of the reports of difficulties around Russian defense production appear to have been growing pains. That's not to say that they're producing some huge abundance relative to what they need as it's very much not the case, but they're producing a lot and the idea some people have that sanctions completely stopped really any major sector of Russian defense production is categorically wrong. I am extremely curious how effective later rounds of interventions wrt controlling exports have been, but that's something we'll only really know after the fact. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 06:42 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 21, 2023 06:07
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I hope someone is selling Russia chips that mysteriously set all their outputs to high randomly.
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Nov 21, 2023 13:20
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GD_American posted:I'm honestly shocked that Six Sigma never took greater root in the military. It's got all the cultish trappings to really capture the heart of the officer class. Having worked at defense contractors for 20 years, six-sigma lean is alive and well in the MIC production chain.
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Nov 21, 2023 14:16
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Murgos posted:Having worked at defense contractors for 20 years, six-sigma lean is alive and well in the MIC production chain. Six-ligma-balls!
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Nov 21, 2023 16:18
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Is that the thing ISO-9000 pokevolved into?
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Nov 21, 2023 16:58
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Ronwayne posted:Is that the thing ISO-9000 pokevolved into? Nah, Six Sigma was developed by GE to eliminate a lot of their internal corporate bureaucracy and reduce management overhead. It actually worked (their financial issues were due to Jack Welch's foray into stuff like insurance that caused huge losses which were written down against their other business units), but it was then adopted by the military where it promptly collided with the dual realities of a love of redundant and stupid processes and high turnover among executive staff. It was a failure specifically because making Six Sigma work requires a fundamental overhaul in organizational mindset and priorities that career military officers and federal employees really have no interest or incentive in doing. So in the end, a bunch of consultants walked away rich while the US military still has an entirely redundant branch of service and three different versions of the same fighter jet. psydude fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 21, 2023 17:37
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It has also become the longest lasting and most tenacious of the business cults perpetuated in cheerleader-ish Harvard Business Review articles. It's got some great principles, but Six Sigma black belts are very much "to a man with a hammer, dot dot dot". Our shipyard hired a lean guru as its President, and his prior job was running a light bulb factory. He was a loving disaster. We lost so many repair clients because all he saw was a bunch of rusted pieces of steel sitting in a field, and nobody could convince him that these were purpose-cut jigs for specific ships that we might not see but every few years, but clients loved coming to us because we had that poo poo ready to go and shave days off their turnaround time for major services and machinery space replacement. He had all of that steel sold off for scrap value. Instant erasure of competitive advantage, because he didn't like the look of it and that dumb lean maxim about if you haven't used something in a year you don't need it. (One superintendent told him in a meeting "then throw away your loving spare tire if you're such a believer"). He got fired in such an amazingly underhanded way that even as unpopular as he was, a lot of us thought it was terrible. He was British, and went home on vacation to see his family, and the company revoked the sponsorship of his visa while he was overseas and turned off his work phone. He found out at Heathrow.
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Nov 22, 2023 02:07
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GD_American posted:
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Nov 22, 2023 02:38
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When I worked at Honeywell in the Space Single Board computer design group, generally one off items specific built for unique applications, I was required to take the Six Sigma LEAN training and spent a week getting talked at by a black belt from the Autolite spark plug factory about how if I could shave half a cent per end item off the BOM I could be a hero to the corporate executives. I never even saw the assembly lab while I worked there and if I had to debug a design because there should have been an extra 4.7 puff cap somewhere that someone decided to leave off to save a dollar it would cost 10’s of thousands to find much less correct. Anyway, they decided that if they furloughed our division for a week they could make their profit projections for the year by saving on the infrastructure costs. Imagine their surprise when they tallied the final numbers and found we were a further ~2% behind projections than estimated. Because we all billed our hours directly to an end customer and so no billing = no profit. I sat in the cubicle next to the guy who said, “Honeywell go for launch” before main engine ignition on shuttle flights though so that was cool.
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Nov 22, 2023 02:43
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MBA brain is a blight upon Capitalism, and that's saying something.
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Nov 22, 2023 03:49
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It is my carefully considered opinion that calling qualification levels like this "<colour> belt", like it's a martial art, is the stupidest thing ever. Unless you have to wear your coloured belt while practising it, of course. That would be funny enough to compensate
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Nov 22, 2023 04:01
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Hyperlynx posted:It is my carefully considered opinion that calling qualification levels like this "<colour> belt", like it's a martial art, is the stupidest thing ever. It's pretty good marketing if you're selling training programs though You'd know that if you took my marketing course, it's basic yellow belt stuff
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Nov 22, 2023 04:24
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M_Gargantua posted:MBA brain is a blight upon Capitalism, and that's saying something. MBA brain is a blight on all things. It corrupts and lessens all that it touches and the extent to which MBA programs have convinced people that their graduates seemingly have a right to carve out niches for themselves as professional middlemen will be the doom of us all. I participated in a leadership development program at work some time ago and was horrified to discover that the distributed learning part of the course was series of lectures by a variety of MBA holders/cargo cultists who had gotten their hands on various concepts and parts of a handful of therapeutic models and then applied that which was originally intended for healing to influencing employee behaviour in a way that is only a revelation to people who hold an MBA or eventually hope to do so. I'm a mental health professional and seeing elements of behaviour therapies that I have used to empower and help people in the past so woefully misapplied by a gang of morons who wanted to sound smart left me feeling deeply pissed off. There was no deeper understanding or substance to any of it, just pretty window dressing for the sake of appearances. Listening to one of those cretins lecture me about how easy it is to teach the acceptance skill to subordinates to help manage their expectations and improve their resilience left me with steam coming out of my ears.
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Nov 22, 2023 10:19
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M_Gargantua posted:MBA brain is a blight upon Capitalism, and that's saying something. Fearless posted:MBA brain is a blight on all things. It corrupts and lessens all that it touches and the extent to which MBA programs have convinced people that their graduates seemingly have a right to carve out niches for themselves as professional middlemen will be the doom of us all. 
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Nov 22, 2023 10:25
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Fearless posted:MBA brain is a blight on all things. It corrupts and lessens all that it touches and the extent to which MBA programs have convinced people that their graduates seemingly have a right to carve out niches for themselves as professional middlemen will be the doom of us all. I found out after the fact that a lot of companies like hiring mid to high functioning autistic people because they're very easy to bully and trick into doing more work for free and are terrible at face to face negotiations with dead eyed lizards in suits who demand they make eye contact as a form of "basic respect". Upon finding out the specific vulnerabilities of other humans, all the management caste can think of was how this makes them easy prey to exploit and devour. Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Nov 22, 2023 |
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Nov 22, 2023 11:42
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bee posted:As for consequences, as my department is HR I guess they're mostly reputational risk and employee attrition. I'm in DEI so the projects I'm working on are focused on improving employee wellbeing and organisational culture. GD_American posted:Instant erasure of competitive advantage, because he didn't like the look of it and that dumb lean maxim about if you haven't used something in a year you don't need it. (One superintendent told him in a meeting "then throw away your loving spare tire if you're such a believer").
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Nov 22, 2023 12:33
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GD_American posted:It has also become the longest lasting and most tenacious of the business cults perpetuated in cheerleader-ish Harvard Business Review articles. - MBA - Executive - British Sorry, can't imagine feeling bad for this person for any reason whatsoever.
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Nov 22, 2023 13:53
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An MBA might be the only realistic option for me to burn the rest of my GI Bill. 
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