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Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
so has there just been no weather for a week or what

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Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




it rain today

DoombatINC
Apr 20, 2003

Here's the thing, I'm a feminist.





we've just been existing in a void of nothingness, to call it vacuum would suggest the absence of presence but even that is too strong a description

tomorrow will be opaque and vague with mid afternoon highs in the fuzzy electric feeling on your tongue and late evening lows in the smell of ozone but more metallic

Jon Pod Van Damm
Apr 6, 2009

THE POSSESSION OF WEALTH IS IN AND OF ITSELF A SIGN OF POOR VIRTUE. AS SUCH:
1 NEVER TRUST ANY RICH PERSON.
2 NEVER HIRE ANY RICH PERSON.
BY RULE 1, IT IS APPROPRIATE TO PRESUME THAT ALL DEGREES AND CREDENTIALS HELD BY A WEALTHY PERSON ARE FRAUDULENT. THIS JUSTIFIES RULE 2--RULE 1 NEEDS NO JUSTIFIC



Iceland has been having some weather recently

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
snow in the upstate :3

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

it snowed a month ago in colorado and has been sunny and 60-70 degrees since, which is probably normal for november

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

DoombatINC posted:

we've just been existing in a void of nothingness, to call it vacuum would suggest the absence of presence but even that is too strong a description

tomorrow will be opaque and vague with mid afternoon highs in the fuzzy electric feeling on your tongue and late evening lows in the smell of ozone but more metallic

my skin has become thick to bullets

Apex Rogers
Jun 12, 2006

disturbingly functional

my son’s birthday party got rained out last weekend, thanks thread!!!

smug jeebus
Oct 26, 2008
Lol owned, kid

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

the bitcoin of weed posted:

it snowed a month ago in colorado and has been sunny and 60-70 degrees since, which is probably normal for november

look at this smug mf bragging about getting snow while the rest of us (like Apex Rogers' son!) make do with sparkling precipitation

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know
Holy poo poo. The subsurface environment of this El Nino is loving ridiculous. The recent westerly wind bursts are hulking this thing.

What a late bloomer. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it- we'll have to see where this adds up once the packets join, but hot drat.

I'm in the PNW so I'm kinda scared this bad boy is going to grab all of our rain, woof.

It's also pretty astonishing how much warmth remains in the tank out west.

Taima has issued a correction as of 15:36 on Nov 23, 2023

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

cool cool that means lots of extra rain in Texas right? can’t wait to drown

Diamonds On MY Fish
Dec 10, 2008

I WAS BORN THIS WAY
Ark...storm?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Taima posted:

Holy poo poo. The subsurface environment of this El Nino is loving ridiculous. The recent westerly wind bursts are hulking this thing.

What a late bloomer. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it- we'll have to see where this adds up once the packets join, but hot drat.

I'm in the PNW so I'm kinda scared this bad boy is going to grab all of our rain, woof.

It's also pretty astonishing how much warmth remains in the tank out west.



oh

my

god

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Taima posted:

Holy poo poo. The subsurface environment of this El Nino is loving ridiculous. The recent westerly wind bursts are hulking this thing.

What a late bloomer. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it- we'll have to see where this adds up once the packets join, but hot drat.

I'm in the PNW so I'm kinda scared this bad boy is going to grab all of our rain, woof.

It's also pretty astonishing how much warmth remains in the tank out west.


this might be out of date but James Hansen had a different take that the el nino this year has been rather weak, which is actually more scary because the climate has been even more hosed up this year, like really bad, with a weak el nino. imagine how bad things would be a real actual bad el nino

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/ElNinoFizzles.13October2023.pdf

that said, i hope this means more rain for bay area. it's loving sucked for the past decade, more or less

Xaris has issued a correction as of 08:10 on Nov 24, 2023

Diamonds On MY Fish
Dec 10, 2008

I WAS BORN THIS WAY

Xaris posted:

that said, i hope this means more rain for bay area. it's loving sucked for the past decade, more or less

*Monkeys paw starts rapidly curling*


*It's making a set of symbols*

Moot .1415926535
Mar 24, 2006

Yep, that's pretty much it.
I cant read is that good

maxwellhill
Jan 5, 2022
ARK

The Demilich
Apr 9, 2020

The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.



SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Taima posted:

Holy poo poo. The subsurface environment of this El Nino is loving ridiculous. The recent westerly wind bursts are hulking this thing.

What a late bloomer. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it- we'll have to see where this adds up once the packets join, but hot drat.

I'm in the PNW so I'm kinda scared this bad boy is going to grab all of our rain, woof.

It's also pretty astonishing how much warmth remains in the tank out west.



What are you going on about. This has been a pretty well forecast moderate-strong el nino but it isn't going nuts into some unseen territory.



The atmosphere is reflecting this now in the past few weeks. But there is always other poo poo going on. CPC wasn't super gung ho about the el nino influence for this winter in their update last week.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

SirPablo posted:

What are you going on about

Why are you consistently such a weirdo, if you could leave me alone I would appreciate it, thanks.

Anyways, these TAO anomalies only really kicked up in the last few days. Even more bumped up today:



What this chart is showing:
The TAO buoys are spread out along the equatorial Pacific ocean. When a westerly wind burst occurs, this forces water downwards (that giant blob on the left side of the chart).

That pocket of warm water grows and then moves eastwards, and it's called a Kelvin Wave. It moves towards the big mass of warm water to the right (the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean).

Why is this interesting tho?

A couple of major reasons:

1) This is a major kelvin wave, and it is growing stronger by the day. This is a result of a very large westerly wind burst that has occurred since the beginning of November, and it's going to combine with the existing El Nino warm pool.

2) A kelvin wave of this size is very uncommon this late in the game, nearly December. That's why I'm saying we haven't seen much like this. An interesting feature of this El Nino has been the abundance of "fuel" for it to occur, which is to say, the base of warm water in the West Pacific generated by consecutive La Ninas.

As a result of the large amount of fuel, we are getting an uncommonly large kelvin wave for this point in time.

What does it mean for us?

This kelvin wave that is forming now is going to quickly move east and join into the main warm pool of the current El Nino, but it's not an instant process. It will take, I would say, 4-8 weeks for this event to fully incorporate into the current event, and it also takes time for the warming to manifest in the atmosphere after that.

It's going to juice this El NIno big time, the only question is how it will ultimately impact the nature of the event itself, because we won't be seeing the climatological impacts of this kelvin wave until, lets say late January at the earliest.

It makes me really excited to see how this event will play out! Let's see what happens!

e: let me try to explain this better:



Hopefully this helps. The kelvin wave is currently emerging on the left, and is going to flow to the right (the main El Nino warm pool).

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that this kelvin wave is going to be a huge late season boost to this El Nino :) this kelvin wave isn't even done building and it's looking really loving impressive even compared to the main warm pool.

These pools of water are going to Voltron together baby. Let's see some rain.

Taima has issued a correction as of 16:33 on Nov 24, 2023

titty_baby_
Nov 11, 2015

Who's Kelvin and whys he waving

redleader
Aug 18, 2005

Engage according to operational parameters
once it's finished building, how long will it take the kelvin wave to meet up with the rest of the el nino stuff?

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

titty_baby_ posted:

Who's Kelvin and whys he waving

Kelvin's just a real friendly dude.

Stairmaster
Jun 8, 2012

its so over

HAIL eSATA-n
Apr 7, 2007


whatever. hi kevin, welcome

1stGear
Jan 16, 2010

Here's to the new us.
sorry i can only understand weather forecasts in terms of disasters, please advise if this is going to be no lake tulare, temporary lake tulare, or permanent lake tulare

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
If Kelvin gets in the way of my ice fishing I'll kick his rear end

maxwellhill
Jan 5, 2022
what final consequences could "big boosted el nino in the winter part of the year" have on weather?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
It’s Kelvin’s wave. He’s supposed to be there.

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
you try to start a wave in a stadium ONE time

Colin Mockery
Jun 24, 2007
Rawr



yeah i didnt follow any of that

i dont even understand how a baby nino grabs rain, does it have something to do with kelvin?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Moot .1415926535 posted:

I cant read is that good

🖕

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014


STORM

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

maxwellhill posted:

what final consequences could "big boosted el nino in the winter part of the year" have on weather?

in a word: arkstorm

hifi
Jul 25, 2012

the weather is ok here. i will check in next week again.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

maxwellhill posted:

what final consequences could "big boosted el nino in the winter part of the year" have on weather?

In a word: moonfall

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021

Moot .1415926535 posted:

I cant read is that good

not really, adults should know how to read

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

SixteenShells posted:

not really, adults should know how to read

reading subjects you to so much disinformation and propaganda that I wish I never learned.

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Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
why did they use his first name? A Bacon Wave has a much better sound to it.

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