mobby_6kl posted:

People "came out in droves" but Biden only won by 40,000 votes in 3 states. It's an incredibly slim margin considering, well, 4 years of Trump.

I do hope that him being under indictment and/or on prison will depress Trump's vote but the polling isn't enouraging. Yes it's one year out blah blah but Trump should be at 0% now, not a viable candidate.

Dopilsya posted:

With the possible exception of healthcare, these articles aren't saying what you're arguing.

Your thesis here is "there is in fact a wide gulf between public preferences and Democractic Party establishment positions".

I'm using Joe Biden's views as a marker of the Democratic Party establishment.

But on the economy, the public preference is for lower inflation and more jobs. Biden's policy position is to reduce inflation and increase the amount of jobs.
On climate change, Americans want to become carbon neutral by 2050 which the article points out is Biden's policy position.
On Israel, Democrats don't have a well defined position (the division referenced in the headline), but the article points out that a majority of voters sympathize more with Israelis and a vast majority say backing Israel is in America's national interest. Unless you're arguing that Biden isn't doing enough to support Israel, he seems to be in line with the public preference.

If anything these articles make the opposite point-- the Democratic establishment is very responsive to moving their positions to be in line with what voters are perceived as wanting. You can argue whether they're actually good at achieving policy goals, but that's a different question.

quote:

In a separate Center survey conducted in June 2023, a similar share of Americans (56%) said the federal government should do more to reduce the effects of global climate change.

quote:

There are age differences within both political parties on this question. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, 58% of those ages 18 to 29 favor phasing out fossil fuels entirely, compared with 42% of Democrats 65 and older.

quote:

The lion’s share (69%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning younger than 35 disapprove of how Biden is responding to the war. Just 24% approve. It’s the inverse among older Democrats. Most Democrats 65 and older (77%) approve of Biden on this issue. Few (16%) disapprove.

quote:

younger Democrats don’t think we should be supplying military aid to Israel in its war with Hamas. A mere 21% agree that we should, while 77% are against it. Older Democrats are for it by a 53% to 32% margin.

Shageletic posted:

At this point in my posting career I should have already learned to post quotes instead of links, especially when the people you are engaging with aren't doing either.

My point re the economy is that people are unsatisfied by the Dem response to inflation and worsening economic conditions, of which a plurality of Americans (its pics instead of quotes, no quoting, dammit), say that they are worse off than they were a year ago. Then I posited that the Biden admin, which for the sake of this discussion, is the face of the Dem party, seems to be ignoring or playing down, hence the also linked tweets.

Shageletic posted:

My point re the economy is that people are unsatisfied by the Dem response to inflation and worsening economic conditions, of which a plurality of Americans (its pics instead of quotes, no quoting, dammit), say that they are worse off than they were a year ago. Then I posited that the Biden admin, which for the sake of this discussion, is the face of the Dem party, seems to be ignoring or playing down, hence the also linked tweets.

Kchama posted:

That's a quirk of the Electoral College, though. Just because a system has a quirk where certain states are more valuable votes-wise than others doesn't indicate that Biden was unpopular or didn't get any votes. He got 7 million more, or 5% more votes than Trump did.

Misunderstood posted:

If that's your point, fine, but you explicitly used the word "position," you can't just act like you actually meant you meant something else and then get snippy with somebody for thinking you meant the thing that you said.

That piece is a year old and from when YOY inflation was 9% when it's now 3%.

Sentiment has not improved enough to be "good" but it has definitely improved since then.

Have a relevant pic and will edit it in in a minute -


As you can see from the notes, it's the graph is being used to demonstrate something else (here's the context), but it shows what it shows. It seems like there is a very, very clear trend, although a not completely consistent one, of people's feelings on the economy improving the longer/the more that inflation is down. We should expect that trend to continue over the next year if inflation stays low (and there's no particular reason except Murphy's Law to think it won't.)

The link you provided is from that low point; it appears the index has improved from ~55 to ~70 in that time. (Whatever exactly the index is measuring... don't know that off the top of my head.)

Shageletic posted:

At this point in my posting career I should have already learned to post quotes instead of links, especially when the people you are engaging with aren't doing either.

My point re the economy is that people are unsatisfied by the Dem response to inflation and worsening economic conditions, of which a plurality of Americans (its pics instead of quotes, no quoting, dammit), say that they are worse off than they were a year ago. Then I posited that the Biden admin, which for the sake of this discussion, is the face of the Dem party, seems to be ignoring or playing down, hence the also linked tweets.

Climate changwise, you have this

And we even have strong support for nixing fossil fuels entirely

Now compare that to the Biden's admin moves to expand gas and oil leases in federal lands, and the other fossil fuel friendly provisions of the recently passed (some of which are listed here: https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2023/08/14/biden-ira-anniversary/).

Seems like a bit of a mismatch!

And oh yeah the Israel article, I was referring to this:

e: I admit that its hard to ascertain if that is in fact the majority without having the hard numbers, but it seems like with stark numbers like the below

it might be? But yeah I admit its not the clearest evidence for my point.

mobby_6kl posted:

Yes I know, of course. But the quirk is what gets the president elected, which is what matters in the end, not how (un)popular Biden is.

socialsecurity posted:

It's funny the "Biden barely won" so he isnt popular or a good candidate isn't ever used against Trump and his squeaking by.

socialsecurity posted:

It's funny the "Biden barely won" so he isnt popular or a good candidate isn't ever used against Trump and his squeaking by.

Misunderstood posted:

In a non-recessionary environment, only MMT adherents would think that. Which, you know, their theories aren't baseless, but it's an extreme minority opinion among economists that loose fiscal policy in periods of high demand doesn't lead to inflation. And most economists think the ARA and BIA and IRA added a bit to (otherwise unavoidable) inflation. (That is to say, to the extent inflation was caused by Biden policies, it was caused by his best policies, and those policies are directly responsible for the high employment and consumer demand we have right now.)

I think it (e: direct stimulus) could possibly be a good policy (and the latest polling I could find actually suggests that people do support it, so I was wrong about that) but you're asking the Dems to take a flyer on some kind of fringe economic theories. If they're wrong and inflation bounces back up to 4% instead of drifting down towards two, that's a huge blow to the Democrats' electoral chances that would outweigh the check itself. If they were going to do some form of economic relief, it would probaby be "safer" to do it closer to the election.

I hate to be That Guy on the internet, but I'm not going to "provide you evidence" of Macro 101. Go find a textbook.

To help you out a little bit, the issue isn't "public aid," it's the government spending money. They could be buying stuff for any reason. If you spent less at the Pentagon and spent that money on public aid it wouldn't cause much extra inflation. And obviously I would support doing that. The problem is that the government refuses to cut anything that hasn't already been cut, or raise taxes.

Raising taxes to pay for expanded public aid likely would not be very inflationary, but sadly is the kind of thing the American government is currently incapable of doing. (Trust that all things pass and it will not be forever.)

Kchama posted:

That's a quirk of the Electoral College, though. Just because a system has a quirk where certain states are more valuable votes-wise than others doesn't indicate that Biden was unpopular or didn't get any votes. He got 7 million more, or 5% more votes than Trump did.

RealityWarCriminal posted:

Hillary also got about 5% more votes than Trump did and still lost

the_steve posted:

Who here is defending Trump or saying he was a good/popular candidate? Do you have quotes?

the_steve posted:

Who here is defending Trump or saying he was a good/popular candidate? Do you have quotes?

BougieBitch posted:

BougieBitch posted:

Yeah, I think it's really important to distinguish between a war of defense and regime change. I'm sure there's someone out there that would claim that the current Ukrainian government isn't "legit", but it's a huge stretch compared to, say, any given US action in South America to prop up or depose someone.

The reason there was never any hope of making progress in Afghanistan is because there isn't popular interest or institutional inertia to keep a government working without training wheels, and associating that project with American imperialism just pushes back the date to that popular support ever forming. Based on my limited understanding, it doesn't really even seem like Afghanistan's borders make any particular sense - the people living there would probably have a better time if regions split into their own countries, and even then the whole idea of "national government" seems kind of arbitrary to impose on people that don't necessarily have a shared national identity or all that much desire for one. The fact that so many different empires have tried and failed to impose one on them seems like a strong signal that everyone should just quit doing that and let the people living there make decisions about their own governance, even if that means doing so without some overarching national government for the UN or treaty signing or whatever.

In contrast, Ukraine would have a functioning national government if Russia, the US, and the EU all got out and took their weapons with them - they had one before, the current one is probably still reasonably representative of the people, and it seems like enough people vote and/or are invested in a national project to defend it from internal or external foes

Bar Ran Dun posted:

The Atlantic has run an interesting piece on the abandonment of the New Deal and what comes next that’s worth a read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/new-deal-us-economy-american-dream/676051/

It’s especially interesting with myths of origin and the fight over traditions in mind.

Shageletic posted:

At this point in my posting career I should have already learned to post quotes instead of links, especially when the people you are engaging with aren't doing either.

My point re the economy is that people are unsatisfied by the Dem response to inflation and worsening economic conditions, of which a plurality of Americans (its pics instead of quotes, no quoting, dammit), say that they are worse off than they were a year ago. Then I posited that the Biden admin, which for the sake of this discussion, is the face of the Dem party, seems to be ignoring or playing down, hence the also linked tweets.

Climate changwise, you have this

And we even have strong support for nixing fossil fuels entirely

Now compare that to the Biden's admin moves to expand gas and oil leases in federal lands, and the other fossil fuel friendly provisions of the recently passed (some of which are listed here: https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2023/08/14/biden-ira-anniversary/).

Seems like a bit of a mismatch!

And oh yeah the Israel article, I was referring to this:

e: I admit that its hard to ascertain if that is in fact the majority without having the hard numbers, but it seems like with stark numbers like the below

it might be? But yeah I admit its not the clearest evidence for my point.

quote:

...

The PCCC and Data for Progress polling showed voters overwhelmingly supported central planks of Biden’s agenda — like slashing drug prices, protecting Social Security and eliminating so-called junk fees — only to then say they’d yet to hear much from the president on the topic.

For example, fewer than a third of voters said they’d heard much from Biden about capping the cost of insulin, a wildly popular provision that took effect back in January. Only 20 percent had “heard a lot” about work done to fend off threats to Social Security and Medicare, and even fewer were aware of the administration’s work on veterans’ benefits and child care.

One central barrier, the progressive groups concluded, was that the White House has struggled to distinguish its positioning on several major issues from Republicans. Biden’s insulin cap has spurred relatively little pushback from the GOP since it took effect, depriving him of the kind of sustained partisan back-and-forth that might elevate the subject in voters’ minds.

On Social Security, the president earlier this year goaded Republicans into swearing off cuts to the program, heading off what Democrats anticipated would be a high-volume fight. That represented a major victory in the moment. But the longer-term impact, the PCCC and Data for Progress polling found, is that voters remain divided over whether Biden or Trump would be more likely to protect their benefits. Trump publicly urged Republicans to leave social insurance programs alone during that debt ceiling fight earlier this year. The polling found that many respondents don’t believe Republicans would now slash Social Security.

“Biden was almost a victim of his own success,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director at Data for Progress. “Yes, we should be educating voters about [Biden’s policies]. … But it’s also about going on offense and picking fights.”

...

Kale posted:

I genuinely cant understand whats giving Trump so much insane momentum right now in the head to head with Biden other than the U.S just seeming to default to the GOP no matter what. Like Biden has his flaws but Trump has them even worse including just being old and confused as poo poo in his own right.

It genuinely feels like within a couple years every major 1st and old 2nd world country is going to have a far right government of some sort and I'm not a doomer, it just seems like the trend.

Main Paineframe posted:

There's one big flaw in your reasoning here: that poll was taken in October 2022, right before the midterms. Yet despite the fact that a lot of voters ranked inflation and the economy as the most important issues, said they were worse off in those issues than they had been, and said that the Republican approach to those things was better, the GOP did rather poorly in the midterms, gaining only a handful of seats in the House and losing a seat in the Senate.

quote:

There's also the fact that the inflation rate today is less than half of what it was when that poll was taken. While the price growth that already happened isn't going to go away, and some goods are still a bit unstable price-wise, inflation rates have already fallen back to normal and healthy levels. The Biden administration's policies appear to have done a pretty decent job at containing and bringing down the runaway inflation of the last few years, and they even managed to avoid triggering the recession that so many economists were convinced was absolutely necessary to stop inflation.

quote:

There are definitely some disturbing indications in polls, though. What's really disturbing is that although the Biden administration's policies and accomplishments are generally highly popular, voters aren't giving the Biden administration credit for it:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/14/white-house-bidenomics-polling-00126982

It's not like Biden isn't talking about this poo poo, either. It's just not getting picked up by the discourse.

Kale posted:

I genuinely cant understand whats giving Trump so much insane momentum right now in the head to head with Biden other than the U.S just seeming to default to the GOP no matter what. Like Biden has his flaws but Trump has them even worse including just being old and confused as poo poo in his own right.

It genuinely feels like within a couple years every major 1st and old 2nd world country is going to have a far right government of some sort and I'm not a doomer, it just seems like the trend.

Shageletic posted:

At this point in my posting career I should have already learned to post quotes instead of links, especially when the people you are engaging with aren't doing either.

My point re the economy is that people are unsatisfied by the Dem response to inflation and worsening economic conditions, of which a plurality of Americans (its pics instead of quotes, no quoting, dammit), say that they are worse off than they were a year ago. Then I posited that the Biden admin, which for the sake of this discussion, is the face of the Dem party, seems to be ignoring or playing down, hence the also linked tweets.

Climate changwise, you have this

And we even have strong support for nixing fossil fuels entirely

Now compare that to the Biden's admin moves to expand gas and oil leases in federal lands, and the other fossil fuel friendly provisions of the recently passed (some of which are listed here: https://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2023/08/14/biden-ira-anniversary/).

Seems like a bit of a mismatch!

And oh yeah the Israel article, I was referring to this:

e: I admit that its hard to ascertain if that is in fact the majority without having the hard numbers, but it seems like with stark numbers like the below

it might be? But yeah I admit its not the clearest evidence for my point.

Right next to the big orange "2" in your own article posted:

Overall, about three-in-ten adults (31%) say the U.S. should completely phase out oil, coal and natural gas. More than twice as many (68%) say the country should use a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels and renewables.

Your own article posted:

Voters overall, on the other hand, are 53% in support to 39% opposed for more military aid for Israel.

Fissures like these are part of the reason why Biden would have a tough time politically shifting away from Israel. On every question Quinnipiac asked about the conflict, the feelings of the entire electorate were more in-line with the Israeli position (and that of older voters) than the other option given.

All voters by a 54% to 24% margin sympathized more with Israelis than Palestinians. Voters, including Democrats, Republicans and independents, by a 73% to 19% margin said backing Israel was in the national interest of America.

Shageletic posted:

Yeah, I admit the Oct 2022 date doesn't make my link a slam dunk, but I'd argue that there a multitude of factors affecting that particular election, including abortion being a big driver for Dem voting. But my argument hasn't been about electability. But a gulf between public preferences, and Democractic elite decision making.

Again, its about public preferences. And when it comes to mainstream economic indicators of inflation like CPI, there are a number of well-known limitations in it that might be responsible for the difference between it slowing down and people's concerns about it. But either way, prices now are more expensive than they were a year ago, and wages and savings for most people haven't risen to match that.

When it comes to insulin, maybe this might be another reason why most people haven't felt that reform is that it is only limited to individuals enrolled in Medicare. People with private insurance, who are the ones most suffering from the price inflation of insulin, was explicitly carved out of the IRA. If there has been any new advancement on that, I am not aware of it, but please let me know if I'm wrong here.

It's part and parcel of Biden's accomplishments, which, in a very Obama way, are limited and are not explicit easy to enroll in or receive social benefits for Americans as a whole. It's something that a public huckster like Trump knew instinctively. It's why his covid checks, sent without the need to apply through some laborious process or through strict financial vetting, had his stupid signature in big honking letters. It's something Dems need to seize on as well, if they're gonna get any recognition from the public for anything they do.

Bodyholes posted:

A sizable percentage of dem voters have been successfully convinced Trump "wasn't that bad" and are clueless about Biden's presidency except for the inflation, which they feel every day.

These are the challenges we are dealing with. Biden has his work cut out for him bringing these strays back.

the_steve posted:

Part of it is that Trump caught lightning in a bottle. Nobody in their right mind believed for a second that Trump was actually going to win in 2016.
Since he did though, you have a lot of "younger" people in the party now trying to emulate him to copy that success or at least get attention paid to them, so for the past 8 years there's an increased notion/conventional wisdom that what Trump does/did works. Whether it actually does or not is moot as long as the perception is there that doing things Trump style is just what gets results.
And with that in mind, it's not a drastic leap in logic to assume that the guy the new system is named after would obviously be a good choice.

socialsecurity posted:

Yeah "Trump's checks" that like to get thrown around as an attack here was just him signing a bill fought hard by House Democrats. I mean he didn't veto it so sure some amount of credit I guess, but he didn't write the bill or even champion for it so it's very unclear why he gets 100% of the credit and the Democrats get attacked for not doing the checks.

FlamingLiberal posted:

Why do you think he made sure to take credit for it? Because he knows it was a popular move and people pay way more attention to what the President is doing than Congress, in general.

the_steve posted:

Who here is defending Trump or saying he was a good/popular candidate? Do you have quotes?

the_steve posted:

Part of it is that Trump caught lightning in a bottle. Nobody in their right mind believed for a second that Trump was actually going to win in 2016.
Since he did though, you have a lot of "younger" people in the party now trying to emulate him to copy that success or at least get attention paid to them, so for the past 8 years there's an increased notion/conventional wisdom that what Trump does/did works. Whether it actually does or not is moot as long as the perception is there that doing things Trump style is just what gets results.
And with that in mind, it's not a drastic leap in logic to assume that the guy the new system is named after would obviously be a good choice.

Kale posted:

I genuinely cant understand whats giving Trump so much insane momentum right now in the head to head with Biden other than the U.S just seeming to default to the GOP no matter what. Like Biden has his flaws but Trump has them even worse including just being old and confused as poo poo in his own right.

It genuinely feels like within a couple years every major 1st and old 2nd world country is going to have a far right government of some sort and I'm not a doomer, it just seems like the trend.

Bucky Fullminster posted:

You have to take into account the digital disinformation factory and psychological manipulation machine at work, which has turned his opponents into literal baby-eating monsters, and successfully positioned him as the literal saviour of mankind in the minds of millions. Which creates enough energy for those millions to influence others too. It's completely destabilised the very notion of Truth itself, and created a wholly alternative reality.

Bodyholes posted:

A sizable percentage of dem voters have been successfully convinced Trump "wasn't that bad" and are clueless about Biden's presidency except for the inflation, which they feel every day.

These are the challenges we are dealing with. Biden has his work cut out for him bringing these strays back.

Kalit posted:

Here's a post that heavily insinuated that Trump was a good/popular candidate (if you agree that a "successful" candidate is a "good" or "popular" candidate):

Granted, this post was made after you asked about quotes, so that's fair if it doesn't count

the_steve posted:

Trump and Hillary were both monumentally lovely candidates. Hillary thought she was going to just sleepwalk her way through the general, Trump was Trump. The only difference is that he managed to thread the needle to get himself past the post

OctaMurk posted:

the high interest rates making buying a house a pipe dream for a lot of people is another thing. even if your wages rose faster than inflation, buying a house rapidly ran out of reach