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Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




artillery is just math and the math is that artillery doctrine is not sustainable under neoliberalism and thats why ff went feral

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Ardent Communist
Oct 17, 2010

ALLAH! MU'AMMAR! LIBYA WA BAS!
let's not forget to thank the taliban, who by fighting made him shoot a lot of artillery and get brain damaged.

also military theory used to at least analyze things somewhat free of ideology, because the results tend to speak for themselves and people who fight each other tend to get mutual respect.

FF talked about how there was tons of good material on the relative strengths of the Ukrainian army and the russian one, it's just it got memory-holed as soon as the slava started.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Ardent Communist posted:

let's not forget to thank the taliban, who by fighting made him shoot a lot of artillery and get brain damaged.

also military theory used to at least analyze things somewhat free of ideology, because the results tend to speak for themselves and people who fight each other tend to get mutual respect.

FF talked about how there was tons of good material on the relative strengths of the Ukrainian army and the russian one, it's just it got memory-holed as soon as the slava started.

Yeah, there was quite a bit on the pre-war Ukrainian army; it was pretty much ignored, but in reality it was a large standing force, it had many of their own indigenous systems, and it wasn't a pushover. The fact the Kremlin thought they could walk in was rather nuts in retrospect and t at the same time, the West also discounted everything about the Ukrainians unless they were using Western systems (they obviously they were unstoppable super soldiers if the weapons they were using were from the right countries obviously).

As far as mutual respect, look at Gaza, the Israelis before the ceasefire were still having tanks sit around without support, despite constant losses, because doing otherwise would mean they would have to acknowledge Hamas was a threat. That is some impressive arrogance as well.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 20:30 on Nov 26, 2023

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019
The same thing happened in Algeria, in Africa. They didn't have anything but a rifle. The French had all these highly mechanized instruments of warfare. But they put some guerilla action on. And a white man can't fight a guerilla warfare. Guerilla action takes heart, take nerve, and he doesn't have that. He's brave when he's got tanks. He's brave when he's got planes. He's brave when he's got bombs. He's brave when he's got a whole lot of company along with him. But you take that little man from Africa and Asia; turn him loose in the woods with a blade. A blade. That's all he needs. All he needs is a blade. And when the sun comes down – goes down and it's dark, it's even-Stephen.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Ukrainian army was a shambles in 2014 and a small Russian intervention got them Minsk for 8 years.

They thought another small intervention could get them another treaty. They got close but didn't account for NATO intervention.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Ardennes posted:

The fact the Kremlin thought they could walk in was rather nuts in retrospect

It worked in Crimea in 2014.

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

Orange Devil posted:

It worked in Crimea in 2014.

Georgia 2008 is what I would use as the root for both NATO's and Russia's strategies leading up to Ukraine-Russia tbh.

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

Once reality intrudes on ideology, roll a d20. On a 20, you crack-ping into reevaluating. On a 1-19, you double down.

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1728829873161183511

quote:

I've been looking over the recent Taliban military parade. A recording of it is available on youtube and is over an hour long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4_PsDxt89c

The tanks that were photographed earlier are almost certainly operational, as they have to be driven onto the loaders. What's even more impressive is that the ANA's Mi-24 helicopters are flying again. The prior government was never able to repair them due to sanctions compliance.




There were also an array of tactical missiles and MLRS shown off. Grad, Uragan, and Luna-M. These were likely related to the stash they found 2 years ago, some of which has apparently been restored. State of the munitions is unknown.



Scud missiles brought up the rear. Like the other rockets, they probably need extensive refurbishing to restore operational condition, but this is something that can get solved in time. These were the capabilities that the prior government was prevented from acquiring.



taliban tanks, helicopters, rockets, and missiles ftw

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Can someone post 1000 words on the state of the tires and what that tells us about their military capabilities?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Orange Devil posted:

Can someone post 1000 words on the state of the tires and what that tells us about their military capabilities?

I converted 1,100 words it into a wordcloud to save some time.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Appreciate it!

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

The scud truck is just such a fine looking vehicle, wanna put a huge oil drill on top of that bad boy and get it stuck in a marsh somewhere

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1728829873161183511

taliban tanks, helicopters, rockets, and missiles ftw

india did give away a bunch of it's own hinds to the ANA.

yellowcar
Feb 14, 2010

taliban ftw

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

Danann posted:

Georgia 2008 is what I would use as the root for both NATO's and Russia's strategies leading up to Ukraine-Russia tbh.

Why did Russia annex Georgia? I don't actually know the history.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Votskomit posted:

Why did Russia annex Georgia? I don't actually know the history.

syq?

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

I'm not entirely sure what this means. Are you trying to make fun of me for asking for more info?

I don't trust Wikipedia's summaries and I don't know the actual history of what happened there.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Votskomit posted:

Why did Russia annex Georgia? I don't actually know the history.

they wanted more peaches and hip hop

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Kindzmarauli.

Weka
May 5, 2019
Probation
Can't post for 11 hours!
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are two parts of Georgia mostly populated by their titular minorities, especially after some prior civil wars. They have each declared independence and Russian troops are safeguarding it. Most of the world doesn't recognize their independence.

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

Russia basically threw a bunch of ad-hoc BTGs that overwhelmed Georgian resistance and the government capitulated when the tanks were threatening the capital. NATO's lessons was that for round 2 they would seek out the politically active people (nazi or similar reactionary) and hand them all the levers of the state so that the government would only surrender when there is literally no more soil to be occupied. Russia drew from Georgia 2008 that BTGs can win them a political settlement without the messy occupation of OG Afghanistan.

Weka
May 5, 2019
Probation
Can't post for 11 hours!

mlmp08 posted:

I converted 1,100 words it into a wordcloud to save some time.



How exactly did you read my mind with your computer?

Cerebral Bore posted:

i cant speak for ff, but i feel like people like him are less taught and more crack-pinged into correct thought

A classical education should contain enough neo classical liberal economics to allow one to understand the flaws of neoliberal economics.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The issue was that the Russian government didn’t seem interested in acknowledging that the Ukrainian army was modernizing and wasn’t the force that existed in 2014.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/us/military-brain-injury-rocket-launcher.html

More noggin scrambling from the US Army: the issue with the Carl Gustav has been well known for years, well before the US army adopted it in 2014, but it seems it is probably causing an additional strain on manpower.

The big issue with the Carl Gustav is that it launches at far higher velocities than other shoulder mounted RPG/ATGM systems. It is 310 m/s versus a 140 m/s on a RPG-7 and while a higher velocity doesn’t affect the projectile much since it is usually HEAT or a specialized round, it does allow it to hit target at longer distances with more accuracy. The problem is it scrambles the brains of anyone who fires it.

The Chinese have a similar system with the same velocity, they just keep theirs tripod mounted.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 06:15 on Nov 27, 2023

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Votskomit posted:

I'm not entirely sure what this means. Are you trying to make fun of me for asking for more info?

I don't trust Wikipedia's summaries and I don't know the actual history of what happened there.

i thought it was a troll post because russia only annexed georgia in the context of the ussr a century ago, not recently

Malleum
Aug 16, 2014

Am I the one at fault? What about me is wrong?
Buglord
russia did not annex georgia. the general background is that once the ussr collapsed in the 90s, georgia descended into civil war along political and ethnic lines much like their southern neighbors in armenia and azerbaijan. during the events of the collapse, the regions of ossetia and abkhazia wanted regional autonomy because they were made up of ethnic minorities (ossetians and abkhaz, you may be surprised to learn) and didnt want the georgians to start up the ethnic cleansing like the azeris did the second there wasnt a strong central government to keep them in check. tblisi saw this as a dire threat to their legitimacy and power, and invaded the abkhaz republic which was the impetus for south ossetia (the breakaway georgian republic) to secede and rejoin with north ossetia (the region just across the border in russia)

russia was a mess because the soviet union had just collapsed and nobody knew what anyone else was doing, so the border was porous and people would cross to join both the georgians and the separatists in the fighting. russian troops were more common in ossetia than in abkhazia because that part of the border was more developed (mainly the raki tunnel, which was and remains a major supply route for the region) and it happened later in the timeline. the fighting reached a stalemate and the ultranationalists that wanted the war in the first place launched a military coup of the georgian president, but by the time they acted it was too late - russian regulars from the caucasian district had found their spines and were joining the breakaway republics in greater numbers with all their equipment, so they were more than capable of rebuffing further georgian advances.

the military junta knew it was a lost cause and cut a deal with the russians, and agreed to a ceasefire in exchange for the black sea fleet's help driving the presidential holdouts out of their positions on the coast. it bought time for russian peacekeepers to reinforce the breakaway republics, but the georgians remain obsessed with lebenstraum and still regularly shell and attack the republic's territory and peoples. 2008 was just another flareup from ultranationalists in tblisi, but this time they thought uncle sam had their back because they were doing joint exercises with NATO.

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

Malleum posted:

2008 was just another flareup from ultranationalists in tblisi, but this time they thought uncle sam had their back because they were doing joint exercises with NATO.

“It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.” - Henry Kissinger

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

i say swears online posted:

i thought it was a troll post because russia only annexed georgia in the context of the ussr a century ago, not recently

Oh my bad. Guess I fell for the liberal propaganda again.

Thanks everyone for the additional context it's great!

Malleum
Aug 16, 2014

Am I the one at fault? What about me is wrong?
Buglord
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mkhedrioni

quote:

The Mkhedrioni's members gained an unpleasant reputation as heavily armed thugs who engaged in violent intimidation of their rivals. They were highly visible, wearing what amounted to a uniform of jeans, sweaters and jackets, topped off by sunglasses (even worn indoors). Leaders wore Armani suits bulging with guns, according to one author. Mkhedrioni relied on illegal sources of income (targeting gasoline supplies) and exploited connections with Moscow's Georgian underworld.[1] Mkhedrioni members were often accused of criminal activity, extorting "protection money" from businesses in areas which they effectively controlled, operating roadblocks where drivers would be "fined", smuggling drugs and committing robberies.[2] By 1991, the Mkhedrioni was claimed to have had about 1,000 fighters and 10,000 associate members[1] – considerably more than the official state National Guard.
...
The Mkhedrioni were subsequently given responsibility for rooting out "Zviadists" in western Georgia, which they did with a brutal efficiency that was widely criticised by foreign governments and international human rights organisations. Shevardnadze responded by gradually limiting the organisation's power. Although Ioseliani remained head of the supposedly civilianised organisation, it continued to function as a private army. In early 1995, Shevardnadze ordered it to disarm, accusing it of deep involvement in organised crime. He narrowly escaped assassination in a bomb attack on August 29, 1995, which he blamed on a shadowy coalition of "mafia forces" including Ioseliani and others. Other acts of political violence were also blamed on the Mkhedrioni. The organisation was outlawed and Ioseliani imprisoned, although many regarded the claim that it had been involved in the bombing as being inconclusively proven.

In spite of its banning, the Mkhedrioni continues to have a somewhat shadowy existence in Georgian politics. A number of members, led by Tornike Berishvili, recreated it in 1999 as an ostensibly political rather than paramilitary organisation. It has been claimed that the Mkhedrioni has had relations with Chechen separatists and continues to be involved in criminal and paramilitary activities, including continued guerrilla attacks in Abkhazia. Jaba Ioseliani was released from prison in an amnesty in April 2000 and resumed his post as head of the Mkhedrioni, declaring his intention to run for president and participate in the November 2003 parliamentary elections. However, Ioseliani died of a heart attack in March 2003.

the russians werent exactly covering themselves with glory by agreeing to recognize these guys as part of the legitimate government of georgia, but its very funny that they tried the same whitewashing that they eventually did for azov. sure is weird that western aligned ex-soviet states are all awash in paramilitary organizations that used to be bad but are totally, completely good now and definitely turned a new leaf but are just so invested in the health and safety of their democracy that they're willing to make cross-border attacks on civilians

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Ardennes posted:

The issue was that the Russian government didn’t seem interested in acknowledging that the Ukrainian army was modernizing and wasn’t the force that existed in 2014.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/us/military-brain-injury-rocket-launcher.html

More noggin scrambling from the US Army, the issue with the Carl Gustav has been well known for years, well before the US army adopted it in 2014 but it seems it is probably causing an additional strain on manpower.

The big issue with the Carl Gustav is that it launches at far higher velocities than other shoulder mounted RPG/ATGM systems. It is 310 m/s versus a 140 m/s on a RPG-7 and while a higher velocity doesn’t affect the projectile much since it is usually HEAT or a specialized round, it does allow it to hit target at longer distances with more accuracy. The problem is it scrambles the brains of anyone who fires it.

The Chinese have a similar system with the same velocity, they just keep theirs tripod mounted.

many have complained the cg was op on bc2

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Weka posted:

A classical education should contain enough neo classical liberal economics to allow one to understand the flaws of neoliberal economics.

a typical education in neoliberal economics is like 5% actual theory and 95% constructing elaborate mental blindspots against the obvious nonsense in the theory, hth

FuzzySlippers
Feb 6, 2009

Russia didn’t militarily defeat Georgia, Georgia collapsed politically like WW2 France. When that happens then invasions are cool and easy. No grinding down cities just show up poof enemy says gently caress it. It’s a victory disease when nations expect that to happen every time.

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

FuzzySlippers posted:

Russia didn’t militarily defeat Georgia, Georgia collapsed politically like WW2 France. When that happens then invasions are cool and easy. No grinding down cities just show up poof enemy says gently caress it. It’s a victory disease when nations expect that to happen every time.

Ok, but it did almost work a second time though. Ukraine and Russia had worked out a cease fire and neutrality agreement in April 2022, with Russia withdrawing from Kyiv as a good faith assurance, and everything was go for Zelensky to sign and make it official until Boris Johnson promised unlimited support from the west for a total Ukrainian victory and conquest of seceded territories

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
almost winning a war is usually not a good thing, tho

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Cerebral Bore posted:

almost winning a war is usually not a good thing, tho

Well yeah they failed to account for the perfidious west

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
They failed to account for their bitter enemies, sounds about right.

big dong wanter
Jan 28, 2010

The future for this country is roads, freeways and highways

To the dangerzone

mawarannahr posted:

many have complained the cg was op on bc2

All I know about the cg is that I used to work with someone who used to complain that they weren't allowed to train with them as much as they wanted for health and safety reasons

frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:
dta

big dong wanter
Jan 28, 2010

The future for this country is roads, freeways and highways

To the dangerzone

Agreed, death to automatics

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frozenphil
Mar 13, 2003

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MISTAKE SO BIG THAT 80 GRIT CAN'T FIX IT!
:smug:

big dong wanter posted:

Agreed, death to automatics
;-*

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