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Potato Salad posted:I'm sorry, they're talking about the #massacre where an IDF gunship killed a bunch of Israelis? hamas.com is a bunch of really stupidly put together Israeli propaganda but if your take on the music festival attack is that all the casualties were caused by Israel you should really check your sources
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Nov 27, 2023 00:56
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How much leverage does the US have on Israel really? I get the US supplies a lot of money and weapons but would it cripple Israel's military if they stopped? I get the impression a lot of people vastly overstate the US' influence over Israeli policy, I don't actually know enough about it though. It just kinda smells like the people who think the US secretly controls the world and everything that happens is a CIA op, so Biden could press the "no genocide" button any time.
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Nov 27, 2023 01:23
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Grand Fromage posted:How much leverage does the US have on Israel really? I get the US supplies a lot of money and weapons but would it cripple Israel's military if they stopped? I get the impression a lot of people vastly overstate the US' influence over Israeli policy, I don't actually know enough about it though. It just kinda smells like the people who think the US secretly controls the world and everything that happens is a CIA op, so Biden could press the "no genocide" button any time. I think the biggest lever the US owns is the security council veto. I believe that the recent abstention was a warning shot to Israel that our attitude was shifting on their actions in Gaza.
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Nov 27, 2023 01:32
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Google Jeb Bush posted:hamas.com is a bunch of really stupidly put together Israeli propaganda but if your take on the music festival attack is that all the casualties were caused by Israel you should really check your sources I don't think anyone is claiming all, but when you are responsible for most, then you get majority credit. There is no way gunships going all Running Man didn't inflict most, but we will never know because A) Israel not being honest or accountable, and B) They aren't going to let international teams investigate.
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Nov 27, 2023 01:35
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bulletsponge13 posted:There is no way gunships going all Running Man didn't inflict most [...] How can you be sure of this? Not that it especially matters if one number is higher than another. But what, you watched a video and now know the casualty breakdown of a few hundred people?
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Nov 27, 2023 01:48
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bulletsponge13 posted:I don't think anyone is claiming all, but when you are responsible for most, then you get majority credit.
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Nov 27, 2023 01:49
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Sorry, I'm making an inference from experience. Feel free to disregard.
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Nov 27, 2023 01:53
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CSM posted:You can go ahead and post those sources claiming Israeli gunships killed the majority of people killed at the Reim music festival. No clue about the number of people killed by gunships, but the reporting on that refers back to https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/2023-11-18/ty-article/0000018b-e1a5-d168-a3ef-f5ff4d070000 . Notably there're a bunch of vehicles in multiple areas at the festival that were blown up by something much more energetic than the small arms Hamas was running around with. There were also statements on the first day from at least one helicopter pilot about how hard it was to distinguish civilians from Hamas eg https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkanmp5w6 . Who knows wtf happened exactly. Israel has since pushed back against that first piece of reporting and a bunch of other places are pushing that narrative because it is obviously useful to their ends. it's a whole informational clusterfuck now Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 02:13
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Grand Fromage posted:How much leverage does the US have on Israel really? I get the US supplies a lot of money and weapons but would it cripple Israel's military if they stopped? I get the impression a lot of people vastly overstate the US' influence over Israeli policy, I don't actually know enough about it though. It just kinda smells like the people who think the US secretly controls the world and everything that happens is a CIA op, so Biden could press the "no genocide" button any time. Ehhh. This will sound like a curious inversion of the norm, considering how entrenched Israeli government interests are in the US. Direct "leverage", as you put it, would be mostly limited to political or diplomatic support, without which the Israeli government might find it hard to pursue any goals outside of their own borders, and many within them. The government of Israel does a lot of work to ensure a rollback of US political support for Israel can't happen without a shitstorm of internal (to the US) political strife. In a more "indirect" sense, Israel's economy (especially in the technological domain, military or otherwise), is heavily intertwined with the US and Western EU. An actual threat to cease working with Israel, by drips and drabs, could be a far stronger and more damaging form of "leverage". This poses problems for both sides of the equation though. The Israeli arms industry in particular relies heavily on US cooperation and investment. The Israeli government counts on US support in that realm to secure funding, through exports, to bankroll their own independent research and development. It works the other way, too. From something as simple as adapting an Israeli rocket launcher (S300) for American manufacture and use (SMAW), to tech and knowledge transfer from helping to developing complex systems (Iron Dome, laser weaponry, drones, more drones, better drones, etc). Not that the IL arms industry is helpless without the US, mind. It would make their job far more difficult in many, and to my mind more important to what they're trying to accomplish, areas. Actions limiting cooperation, imposing sanctions, or cutting ties altogether would be just as damaging to US interests as Israeli ones, at least in the short term. There's a lot of money and will tied up there. Not that it couldn't be done; witness disengagement from Russian firms after the start of their current war in Ukraine. Also, witness the lengths RF firms have gone through to secure parts to fuel domestic production of complex systems. Any attempt to meaningfully effect Israeli actions or policy would need to stop short of disengagement altogether, and thread the needle between political and economic ramifications for the US, IL, and (presumably, and maybe most importantly) Palestine. A multinational effort would require (at the very least) the acquiescence of, if not direct action by, the US. The US government is kind of along for the ride they bought the ticket for, unless the will is to be found within it to untangle decades of lobbying, backroom deals, and other subterfuge on both sides.
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Nov 27, 2023 02:13
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I'm gonna need a whole lot more evidence before I buy the "IDF attack helicopter responsible for a majority of the civilian deaths at the festival" thing. Regurgitating poorly-sourced, extraordinary claims is detrimental to the ultimate goal of justice for the Palestinian people. If you think there's a there there, either dig for strong evidence or wait until someone else unearths some.
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Nov 27, 2023 02:32
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm gonna need a whole lot more evidence before I buy the "IDF attack helicopter responsible for a majority of the civilian deaths at the festival" thing. Regurgitating poorly-sourced, extraordinary claims is detrimental to the ultimate goal of justice for the Palestinian people. If you think there's a there there, either dig for strong evidence or wait until someone else unearths some. but someone had a picture of closely parked cars that were clearly in a big fire! must've been GUNSHIPS! wonder if GUNSHIPS also took out these cars related to BIDEN -- can anyone really prove they didn't? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11482881/Five-cars-rented-Bidens-Secret-Service-burst-FLAMES-Nantucket-used-family.html
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Nov 27, 2023 03:16
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pmchem posted:but someone had a picture of closely parked cars that were clearly in a big fire! must've been GUNSHIPS!  that's a different level of destroyed from cars simply catching fire vov To be clear there's no evidence at all for the 'majority' claims, but there's not much reason to doubt that some friendly fire happened because that's kinda the nature of running a bunch of gunships for a full day (with whatever pilots you happened to have on a holiday) at a time when the regional defense apparatus has collapsed and everything is, to put it lightly, in chaos and there's widespread reports of hamas flooding across the border. How much friendly fire you think happened in that context probably has a lot to do with how much faith you have in helicopter pilots. Of course you've got the tankiesphere pushing the 'majority of casualties were IDF friendly fire' to muddy everything up even more. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 03:34 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 03:25
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Herstory Begins Now posted:that's a different level of destroyed from cars simply catching fire the only remarkable thing there is that the center car is still mostly white here are a bunch of cars that were in different natural fires:      in your pic, it looks like the cars were trashed by angry people then set on fire
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Nov 27, 2023 03:33
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Good, very long piece from wapo about attitudes inside the WH https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/26/biden-white-house-divisions-israel-gaza pmchem posted:
pretty hard to miss difference in structural damage between the two
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Nov 27, 2023 03:46
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Herstory Begins Now posted:pretty hard to miss difference in structural damage between the two what's your theory here, that downdraft from the gunship rotors crushed the cars?
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Nov 27, 2023 03:49
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I'd have said they look a lot like they were hit by weapons powerful enough to mangle them. Perhaps of the sort carried by attack helicopters.
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Nov 27, 2023 03:54
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I'd have said they look a lot like they were hit by weapons powerful enough to mangle them. Perhaps of the sort carried by attack helicopters. where's the shrapnel damage? how did the car with the yellow circle on it get all dented up? it looks like someone was beating on it here are images of vehicles that were -- according to the media -- hit by hellfire strikes, like perhaps of the sort carried by attack helicopters: :format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71204476/1235356596.0.jpg)   in the last case, the structure is in better shape than the ones in the pic we're arguing about. in all cases, tons of fragment holes I mean between the choices of "IDF gunships let loose with several hellfires on a small group of parked cars and vaporized a bunch of concertgoers in the process yet no fragment hole patterns were visible and some cars just kinda got... dented, somehow" vs. "angry dudes shot at some people hiding and trashed some cars then set them all on fire" ... going with occam's razor here
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Nov 27, 2023 04:11
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I'd have said they look a lot like they were hit by weapons powerful enough to mangle them. Perhaps of the sort carried by attack helicopters.
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Nov 27, 2023 04:14
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Cugel the Clever posted:So is the assertion that the majority of those Israelis killed at the festival were sitting idly in their cars in the parking lot? Where was that said in the last 41 pages of posts?
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Nov 27, 2023 04:24
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 we're really doing this aren't weThe other cars are intact. In that picture, there's a center where cars are mangled and deformed, circling out we see fire damaged cars then it ends. Thats what it looks like when an explosive item, sometimes with a motor attached at the end, goes off in a row of cars in a space without any other flammable material around to carry the initial flame to more fuel, like the cars in the back there. Only things inside the evident blast caught it. Looks a lot like an easy helicopter gently caress up to me E. Not an entire drat hellfire, a couple bushmaster projectiles or an unguided rocket would do fine ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 04:26
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A.o.D. posted:Where was that said in the last 41 pages of posts? In other news, 3 university students of Palestinian descent were shot in Vermont the other day in a suspected hate crime. quote:Three college students of Palestinian descent were wounded Saturday night in a shooting in Burlington, Vermont, by an unidentified gunman, who opened fire at them "without speaking,” according to police.
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Nov 27, 2023 04:29
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Cugel the Clever posted:So is the assertion that the majority of those Israelis killed at the festival were sitting idly in their cars in the parking lot? I've said gently caress all about the majority of anything. Don't put words in my mouth. I said that the pictured vehicles looked to me like something heavy had gone off amongst them. In reply to someone else saying they look like normally burnt out vehicles, which they clearly do not. The vehicles in that picture having been damaged by helicopter borne weapons would be entirely in keeping with the Israeli investigation findings reported in the Israeli press. I'm not wrapping my posts in tin foil, I'm commenting on the picture posted here and the reported events which would rationally explain it. Lovely Joe Stalin fucked around with this message at 07:37 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 07:32
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I don't think you mangle the frame of a car like that by hand. I defer to more knowledgeable people over whether an airstrike/artillery round/hellfire would look like that. To my dumb rear end, it looks like they were flattened into the ground as if a monster truck drove over them repeatedly. Or a tank, since that would make more sense in context. I would also guess the person who said there probably weren't any people in the cars parked in a lot is probably correct. I only heard descriptions of the videos, but it sounded like some of them had moving cars getting shot at, which wouldn't be the same as the ones in the photo. Disclaimer: I don't know poo poo.
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Nov 27, 2023 08:17
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I’ve seen the aftermath of a number of car fires in person. They certainly can get hot enough to melt aluminum and to destroy steel under its own weight. I’ve never been around after an attack by a helicopter gunship though. The thing that sticks out to me is that the silver car with the bottles on its bonnet looks to have intact wheels and tires. Perhaps it was destroyed by concussive force, but not in place or all the windows on the background cars would be broken. Platystemon fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 08:28
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I've said gently caress all about the majority of anything. Don't put words in my mouth. I think he was responding to bulletsponge, who did make that assertion: bulletsponge13 posted:I don't think anyone is claiming all, but when you are responsible for most, then you get majority credit.
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Nov 27, 2023 10:22
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Google Jeb Bush posted:hamas.com is a bunch of really stupidly put together Israeli propaganda but if your take on the music festival attack is that all the casualties were caused by Israel you should really check your sources where did I make that claim good lord, people. A.o.D. posted:Where was that said in the last 41 pages of posts? Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I've said gently caress all about the majority of anything. Don't put words in my mouth. Like, where is this invective coming from, why are people tilting at windmills that don't exist just engage with the words that are on the page, there's enough content here without having to make something up Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 11:01
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No shrapnel damage Damage to the cars looks like they've been bent rather than ripped Looks like a single line away from the viewpoint where the cars have been squashed by something heavy Diagnosis: tank Secondary diagnosis: tankies
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Nov 27, 2023 12:04
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Are we even sure that that’s where the cars were parked the night of the festival or is it possible that they were moved with heavy equipment?
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Nov 27, 2023 12:39
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Platystemon posted:Are we even sure that that’s where the cars were parked the night of the festival or is it possible that they were moved with heavy equipment? That is actually a great point. I had not even considered it.
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Nov 27, 2023 14:32
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https://twitter.com/drelidavid/status/1729097251262181593 Seems like Rhodesian Lowtax felt compelled to visit Israel after his disastrous anti-Semitic tweets and feud with Media Matters from a week and a half ago.
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Nov 27, 2023 16:09
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Y'all can definitely blame me for this recent debate. I could explain my thinking/reasoning, but it doesn't really matter. My bad, y'all.
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Nov 27, 2023 16:26
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Further information came out in MV Central Park, she’s carrying a full load of phosphoric acid. Crew of 22, captain is Turkish but other crew members are a mix of Russian, Vietnamese, Bulgarian, Indian, Georgian and Filipino. Phosphoric acid is mostly used for fertilizers.
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Nov 27, 2023 16:51
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Platystemon posted:Are we even sure that that’s where the cars were parked the night of the festival or is it possible that they were moved with heavy equipment? This is a great example as to why forensically analyzing an event with a few internet photos and 15 minutes of free time can be dangerous. bulletsponge13 posted:Y'all can definitely blame me for this recent debate. It's all good dude, this topic gets people worked up and debating minutiae more than almost anything else. I'm a newcomer to this thread and have been very impressed by how civil it is. Thanks all. Count Roland fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Nov 27, 2023 |
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Nov 27, 2023 16:59
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yeah I didn’t open this thread last night expecting to post about cars (and I’m done with it), but I just get frustrated at how quickly various events are being re-interpreted with conspiracy theory angles as soon as one side finds an event unpopular to claim ownership of. like there are actual denials in the wild from widely followed sources that hamas killed anyone at the concert venue at all. things get absurd pretty quickly.
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Nov 27, 2023 17:10
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I will admit that my inference is based on having experience with aircraft and gunships in urban areas firing at point targets with an area target platform. Even the most stable of airframe disperse shells- not even getting into launched munitions like Hydra Rockets or Hellfire- disperse rounds in something like a 10 meter area (varies by platform and weapon, but 5-10 meters is pretty average from my anecdotal experience and studies). Firing into a crowded area filled with groups of people clumped up without ground sources to ID, and I'm sure maintaining personal protection through speed and standoff, is a recipe for mayhem. Couple that with no one having an actual number of Hamas militants at the location, and the Israeli media machine blanketing the internet with misinformation, propaganda, and lies to bury their own admission, and it just seems more probable to me. Like I said, completely disregard, because I'm making unproveable claims- I'm just going off gut and experience.
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Nov 27, 2023 17:28
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Count Roland posted:Qatar occupies an interesting diplomatic niche. Along with the relations listed above they are also fairly friendly with Iran, despite current Saudi Arabia. They also have really invested in a mediation/middleman role since the blockade. They started funding a lot more UN stuff, and they'd show up and make a lot of points about the need for conflict resolution and international institutions, then pivot to point at the blockade as a specific example of why it's needed. Since the blockade ended, they kept that going and really seem to be making a bid to be the 21st century Switzerland. The recent negotiations between the US and Venezuela happened in Qatar, for example.
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Nov 27, 2023 17:33
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https://twitter.com/RespondCrisis/status/1728855237019234469/photo/4 Oh good
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Nov 27, 2023 17:45
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I think part of the reason everyone is pushing back so hard against any Israeli narrative and assuming that "if the Israelis accuse HAMAS of doing it, actually the Israelis did it and its worse than you thought" is because, well? A lot of the Israeli claims when this whole thing started were either false, massively blown out of proportion, or actually stuff from the Nakba or previous violence done by Israeli Soldiers or Settlers to Palestinians and Lebanese being brought up and claimed that Hamas did it. In that sort of situation, especially with Israeli propaganda and their weaponizing of the word antisemitism, I think it's understandable to see why people would assume "The Hamas fighters on paragliders killed hundreds of civilians at this music festival" getting corrected to "Israeli Gunship crews caused some friendly fire there" and believe that its as bad as "The Israelis killed most of the civilians there because they're a poorly trained cforce meant for colonial oppression."
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Nov 27, 2023 17:53
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maffew buildings posted:https://twitter.com/RespondCrisis/status/1728855237019234469/photo/4
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Nov 27, 2023 17:53
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Latest reporting is that the hijacking of the Central Park was unsuccessful, and the attackers might have been Somalis.
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Nov 27, 2023 20:06
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