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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

mobby_6kl posted:

Didn't they also have a serious mass shooting problem at some point? Hmm...

No, they had one right wing person do a mass shooting in two mosques and a murder of two people plus the murderer this year, but I don't think there has been a school shooting in New Zealand at any point, at least from a very cursory reading.

Edit:fixed spelling.

Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Dec 3, 2023

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Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

lmao this mf said poony

PharmerBoy
Jul 21, 2008

alf_pogs posted:

yeah but NZ kids don't have to live in constant fear of getting blown away by a gun

If the response to "The US has a gun violence problem in schools" isn't taking steps to decrease gun violence, but instead is making sure every child has a way to call while terrified in a closet, I don't know what to do with those priorities.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

PharmerBoy posted:

If the response to "The US has a gun violence problem in schools" isn't taking steps to decrease gun violence, but instead is making sure every child has a way to call while terrified in a closet, I don't know what to do with those priorities.

The priority is :blastu:

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

There have been multiple NYT profiles of gun owners whose kids killed themselves with those guns who have said that it was impossible to prevent and they know their dead kids forgive them in heaven, because there was nothing wrong with them having guns everywhere. The gun thing is a kind of madness that I cannot understand.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

alf_pogs posted:

yeah but NZ kids don't have to live in constant fear of getting blown away by a gun

neither do American kids at school, statistically. School shootings are high profile for various obvious reasons but the odds of any individual kid being shot at school are about as high as someone in their family getting killed by lightning.

I AM GRANDO posted:

There have been multiple NYT profiles of gun owners whose kids killed themselves with those guns who have said that it was impossible to prevent and they know their dead kids forgive them in heaven, because there was nothing wrong with them having guns everywhere. The gun thing is a kind of madness that I cannot understand.

suicides / accidents / domestic murders, now, that's where the guns are a public health problem

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Google Jeb Bush posted:

neither do American kids at school, statistically. School shootings are high profile for various obvious reasons but the odds of any individual kid being shot at school are about as high as someone in their family getting killed by lightning.
I'm usually on board with these "rare things are rare" arguments but when you consider that there's not that many schools, and a school has hundreds or even thousands of students, and a shooting can be incredibly traumatic for all of them, the chances of your child being affected by a school shooting start to get unnervingly high.

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

Statistically rare is misleading when you're in one of the few environments where it regularly happens. It is statistically rare to be struck by lightning, your chances of being struck in a lightning storm are high.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
No. GJB's explanation already accounts for that.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Gumball Gumption posted:

Statistically rare is misleading when you're in one of the few environments where it regularly happens. It is statistically rare to be struck by lightning, your chances of being struck in a lightning storm are high.

I'm having flashbacks to the "well actually it's extremely rare for passenger aircraft to be shot down so it's unlikely that's what happened" argument when the IRGC shot one down in 2020.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Misunderstood posted:

I'm usually on board with these "rare things are rare" arguments but when you consider that there's not that many schools, and a school has hundreds or even thousands of students, and a shooting can be incredibly traumatic for all of them, the chances of your child being affected by a school shooting start to get unnervingly high.

There are, in fact That Many Schools.

uPen
Jan 25, 2010

Zu Rodina!

Google Jeb Bush posted:

neither do American kids at school, statistically. School shootings are high profile for various obvious reasons but the odds of any individual kid being shot at school are about as high as someone in their family getting killed by lightning.

suicides / accidents / domestic murders, now, that's where the guns are a public health problem

After my children come home asking why they need to practice school shooter drills I’ll reassure their fear by reminding them that much like lightning strikes, there’s absolutely nothing anyone could do to protect them or prevent it from happening.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

uPen posted:

After my children come home asking why they need to practice school shooter drills I’ll reassure their fear by reminding them that much like lightning strikes, there’s absolutely nothing anyone could do to protect them or prevent it from happening.

I guess I didn't get to another part of my take: school shooter drills cause more trauma than they're worth, imo. Advocating gun control because schools shootings is arguing for a good policy for practically-iffy reasons. Drills and the other things that mostly just reinforce fear and stress is implementing a costly and/or bad policy for DO SOMETHING reasons.

but you're not going to get people to not demand something be done about sensationalist things soooo

e: I guess a followup take would be that better non-gun-control responses would be dual use sorts of things. like, say, improved mental health programs for kids and otherwise

double e: I would also compare the good ol "hide under your desks" nuclear drills, which were stupid and pointlessly traumatizing for slightly different reasons

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Dec 4, 2023

uPen
Jan 25, 2010

Zu Rodina!

Google Jeb Bush posted:

I guess I didn't get to another part of my take: school shooter drills cause more trauma than they're worth, imo. Advocating gun control because schools shootings is arguing for a good policy for practically-iffy reasons. Drills and the other things that mostly just reinforce fear and stress is implementing a costly and/or bad policy for DO SOMETHING reasons.

but you're not going to get people to not demand something be done about sensationalist things soooo

e: I guess a followup take would be that better non-gun-control responses would be dual use sorts of things. like, say, improved mental health programs for kids and otherwise

double e: I would also compare the good ol "hide under your desks" nuclear drills, which were stupid and pointlessly traumatizing for slightly different reasons

Sure the drills are likely counter-productive and cause more harm than they prevent. But your original post was that it is unreasonable for American schoolchildren to live in 'constant fear' of school shootings. It's a perfectly reasonable fear for them to have. They're American, they attend public schools, they go through drills that remind them that this is a thing that can happen to them, they see this thing happen on the news year after year while no changes are made to protect them.

If lightning suddenly only struck middle-aged American tech workers I would be a lot more scared of thunderstorms than I currently am, even if I wasn't any more likely to be struck.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Look, keeping children in a constant state of fear makes them grow up to be reliable GOP voters. We can't change that!

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

reignonyourparade posted:

There are, in fact That Many Schools.
Well, "unnervingly high" is pretty subjective. (Certainly it's high enough that a lot of people are unnerved, but of course people get unnerved about all kinds of things they oughtn't.)

Back of the envelope: There are about 100,000 schools. There were about 50 school shootings that resulted in injuries or deaths in 2022, although obviously few of those fit the definition of a "mass shooting" as it's colloquially used. Looking at this list of incidents, there are maybe 5 or 6 that I would classify as "mass shootings" in the sense that any student of the school could see themselves as having been a potential victim (rather than shootings over personal matters).

If 6 in 100,000 schools experience an event that's likely to be traumatizing to all students and their parents in a given year, and kids go to school for 13 years, then you are getting pretty close to a 1 in 1,000 chance that your kid will experience a "school shooting," using a relatively restrictive definition of "school shooting."

There are a zillion other factors (size, demographics, local gun culture, etc) that go into any one school's level of risk, but I don't think it's fair to compare the chances of a school shooting directly affecting your child to a lightning strike, or to reduce the damage caused by school shootings to merely the number of deaths. A parent who is afraid of their children experiencing a shooting is not being irrational to the degree that, say, a parent who is paranoid about halloween candy is.

e: For the record I don't disagree that the shooter drills and such are way overdone, and arguably shouldn't be done at all, and that the guaranteed distress caused by stuff like that probably outweighs the very small chance of distress caused by not doing the drills. (Especially since it's not like having a shooter response is going to actually stop bullets; the utility of these procedures is fairly marginal.)

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Dec 4, 2023

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Oh I see, yeah, I neglected to make my framing clear enough. The fear is not statistically rational, but it spreads like wildfire through badly formulated policies (drills etc) and the strong / inevitable media tilt towards fear and sensationalization. They are not in any meaningful danger of being shot at school and are in very little danger of a shooting occurring at their school, but the fear is there anyway for bad reasons and sometimes malfeasance. I do not like the spreading of that fear (again, generally by media and bad policies) very much, even if I will grudgingly tolerate it on even numbered dates in gun control advocacy. The kids suffering from that fear aren't exactly to blame, nor really are underinformed parents.

e: also I guess it's fair to count "one kid injures another with a firearm in the hs parking lot or something" as a bit upsetting to the student body even if that's not really what the general public thinks of when they hear school shooting

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 02:06 on Dec 4, 2023

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

Bar Ran Dun posted:

The Republicans are revolutionary romantics and incoherence is essential to their rhetoric.

Yes there is clear difference with a causal reason. All of the right wing groups internationally have this same character. They all are appealing to broken myths of origin and are attempting to restore broken myths by violence.

They need the Eye of Magnus for that

uPen
Jan 25, 2010

Zu Rodina!

Google Jeb Bush posted:

Oh I see, yeah, I neglected to make my framing clear enough. The fear is not statistically rational, but it spreads like wildfire through badly formulated policies (drills etc) and the strong / inevitable media tilt towards fear and sensationalization. They are not in any meaningful danger of being shot at school and are in very little danger of a shooting occurring at their school, but the fear is there anyway for bad reasons and sometimes malfeasance. I do not like the spreading of that fear (again, generally by media and bad policies) very much, even if I will grudgingly tolerate it on even numbered dates in gun control advocacy. The kids suffering from that fear aren't exactly to blame, nor really are underinformed parents.

e: also I guess it's fair to count "one kid injures another with a firearm in the hs parking lot or something" as a bit upsetting to the student body even if that's not really what the general public thinks of when they hear school shooting

Your example of one kid injuring another in the parking lot would be an incredibly traumatizing event for every student and parent at that school. The school would immediately get locked down, cops would swarm all over it and every parent is going to get a text from their kid 'The school is locked down, someone was shot.' Nobody was killed and nobody else was in any danger, but because we live in America everyone just gets to live with that trauma forever.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



There are constantly lockdowns whenever there is a report of a potential shooter/crime just in the general vicinity of a school. This is on top of all of the drills.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

You are seriously underestimating the amount of violent threats kids have to deal with at school if you're only looking at numbers for mass shootings. Bomb threats were a regular occurrence back when I was in middle school.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Agents are GO! posted:

They need the Eye of Magnus for that

You are joking but think about these groups. Think about Q folks yammering about adrenochrome. They have things like “the storm” or “the event, “MMS” miracle mineral solution.

These folks very much regard things unreal, as real physical items out in the world.

It’s also one of the ways propagandists target people. They go after folks with beliefs in things like healing crystals, or squinting to improve their eyesight, or tanning their taint and attach racist and nationalist narratives to those already internalized beliefs.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Tiny Timbs posted:

You are seriously underestimating the amount of violent threats kids have to deal with at school if you're only looking at numbers for mass shootings. Bomb threats were a regular occurrence back when I was in middle school.

point conceded there, I remember a couple of those and I was in before the heyday of both school shootings and easy phone threats

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Bar Ran Dun posted:

It’s also one of the ways propagandists target people. They go after folks with beliefs in things like healing crystals, or squinting to improve their eyesight, or tanning their taint and attach racist and nationalist narratives to those already internalized beliefs.

Would that include believing in stories about dudes rising from the dead days after being nailed up on a cross?

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus
I'm sorry but something doesn't have to be statistically likely for someone to live in fear of it. The fact is, whether it's very likely or not, most kids in the US are going to have to deal with the fear of going to school and being shot, because school shootings are a high profile fact of life. They are not in other countries. This is not that hard to understand.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013
Probation
Can't post for 3 hours!
It is important to distinguish between the reality of a risk and the perception of it. The "pervasive" fear remains irrational relative to the risk, and like the risk itself, internalizing it as inevitable serves only to interfere with considering change.

World Famous W
May 25, 2007

BAAAAAAAAAAAA
my dad's been shocked by lightning twice, once when it struck near enough to travel through a rain puddle and the second being in a metal building

not really making a point other than i kinda of laugh when people use lightning strikes as a "very low chance"

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp
I mean I graduated high school in 2011, Virginia Tech happened when I was in 8th grade, and I was never seriously concerned or stressed about living through a school shooting. Maybe it was just me, maybe things have changed, but at the time there were far bigger things for me to worry about, like Halo and nerf zombies.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Acebuckeye13 posted:

I mean I graduated high school in 2011, Virginia Tech happened when I was in 8th grade, and I was never seriously concerned or stressed about living through a school shooting. Maybe it was just me, maybe things have changed, but at the time there were far bigger things for me to worry about, like Halo and nerf zombies.

Virginia Tech happened my freshman year. At Virginia Tech. I never really worried about it happening again, and do my best to assure anyone freaking out about sending their kid to school or going to a movie that they’re much safer there than on their way there.

But fear isn’t rational. I think a lot of it is over covered by the media, with too much attention put on the shooters. Yes we need more gun laws but the point is less to do with mass shootings because those are a tiny fraction of gun violence.

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

I was never concerned about a mass shooting when I was in high school, but it would be another 11 years before Newtown and my realization that America had completely accepted mass shootings and didn’t care at all. If I were a kid at that time, I still wouldn’t think I was likely to get shot, but I would probably be really messed up.

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

We're goons, We're already really messed up

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer

Acebuckeye13 posted:

I mean I graduated high school in 2011, Virginia Tech happened when I was in 8th grade, and I was never seriously concerned or stressed about living through a school shooting. Maybe it was just me, maybe things have changed, but at the time there were far bigger things for me to worry about, like Halo and nerf zombies.

What is the point of this post? Are you just letting everyone know what your own personal feelings were 12 years ago or are you trying to unsubtly infer that children today are irrationally afraid of being victims of a school shooting? It definitely seems like the latter.

Mid-Life Crisis
Jun 13, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
Remind me to never fly with any of you.

1/1300 chance of being anywhere near an indiscriminate school shooting in an entire 13 year school career is 0.07% chance.

You have a 1/107 chance of dying in a car in your lifetime. Over 1%. And that’s with everyone getting a license and training.

The fear mongering is exactly that. Don’t blame right wing media for sensationalism when every ounce of school shooting fear is not based in reality.

It’s fear to take away the one thing that equalizes the plebes and the bourgeoise at a time where the gap between them is expanding to historic highs. Cowards.

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

You have a 1/107 chance of dying in a car in your lifetime. Over 1%.

:thunk:

Your math seems off, friend.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
"Fear of school shootings is irrational" doesn't mean that everyone who's afraid of school shootings is stupid.


Mid-Life Crisis posted:

It’s fear to take away the one thing that equalizes the plebes and the bourgeoise at a time where the gap between them is expanding to historic highs. Cowards.

I'm not sure how guns can be "the one thing that equalizes the plebes and the bourgeoise" when higher income households are more likely to own guns

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

James Garfield posted:

"Fear of school shootings is irrational" doesn't mean that everyone who's afraid of school shootings is stupid.

I'm not sure how guns can be "the one thing that equalizes the plebes and the bourgeoise" when higher income households are more likely to own guns

Yeah I'm not sure there has ever been a successful rebellion against the rich by just poor people with guns, even what the Russian 1917 revolution had some workers but was mainly done by soldiers who were pissed about WW1 being handled poorly by.

Moktaro
Aug 3, 2007
I value call my nuts.

Bird in a Blender posted:

The CTA leadership does suck right now. They have struggled hard to get enough people for buses and trains since the pandemic so everything takes longer. Wait times for trains used to be 5-7 minutes during normal times, now 10 minutes is pretty normal and late at night is loving awful. Buses were not great before and have gotten worse. It’s been frustrating for everyone.

They were never the same after Peter Cetera left.

Agents are GO!
Dec 29, 2004

I thought he got wiped out by Jenova

Victar
Nov 8, 2009

Bored? Need something to read while camping Time-Lost Protodrake?

www.vicfanfic.com

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

You have a 1/107 chance of dying in a car in your lifetime. Over 1%. And that’s with everyone getting a license and training.

What's the source for this statistic?

Motor vehicle accidents kill way too many people in America, especially pedestrians and other people who are outside cars. But that percentage chance seems a little high when limiting the death toll to people "in a car".

Edit: Also, 1/107 is approximately 0.93%. That's a little under 1%, not a little over 1%.

Victar fucked around with this message at 07:11 on Dec 4, 2023

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CPColin
Sep 9, 2003

Big ol' smile.
No they meant 1/107/0.01, so 93%

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