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FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Irony Be My Shield posted:

If they had captured a bunch of IDF soldiers without also murdering a shitload of civilians/raping a bunch of women/capturing a bunch of civilians and refusing to let anyone inspect the conditions they're keeping them under then that would've put Israel in a very difficult position.

Do you have any evidence that isn't from the IDF/Israel that directly supports the claim that Hamas raped a bunch of women? The UN wants to investigate those allegations, and Israel is already calling the commissions antisemitic, illegitimate, and discriminatory and declared it will not cooperate with the investigation before it even starts!

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-commission-investigate-hamas-sexual-violence-appeal-evidence-2023-11-29/

https://twitter.com/giladerdan1/status/1730284375105819003

Note: The current president of the UN Human Rights Council is Václav Bálek of the Czech Republic, which is one of Israel's closest allies. Iran is NOT chairing the council. It's temporarily chairing a "Social Forum" by rotation and is not elected!

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

While Israel did prematurely and unfairly condemn that committee they did ultimately co-operate, and the committee condemned Hamas sexual violence after Israel presented unequivocal evidence of rape. e: both of the links below of course contain horribly triggering descriptions.
https://archive.ph/47E7n
If you don't trust the UN they have also shown the photo and video evidence to news organisations such as the BBC. I am not reading this article but it states that "The BBC has seen and heard evidence of rape, sexual violence and mutilation of women during the 7 October Hamas attacks."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Dec 7, 2023

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

They did capture high ranking military personne thoughl?



Where did I say they didn't? I thought it was clear that I meant to only target them and not civilians. And looking at the death count/hostages, they clearly were targeting whoever they could get their hands on.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Kalit posted:

Where did I say they didn't? I thought it was clear that I meant to only target them and not civilians. And looking at the death count/hostages, they clearly were targeting whoever they could get their hands on.

You literally said, 'if they can't go after military personnell/politicians,' they can and they did. And they were able to make a change even with those who weren't. They traded civilian hostages for civilian hostages. Plus more than half of those killed on October 7th were IDF according to Haaretz and that Israeli government tweet with the victim's names and ranks.

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Irony Be My Shield posted:

While Israel did prematurely and unfairly condemn that committee they did ultimately co-operate, and the committee condemned Hamas sexual violence after Israel presented unequivocal evidence of rape. e: both of the links below of course contain horribly triggering descriptions.
https://archive.ph/47E7n
If you don't trust the UN they have also shown the photo and video evidence to news organisations such as the BBC. I am not reading this article but it states that "The BBC has seen and heard evidence of rape, sexual violence and mutilation of women during the 7 October Hamas attacks."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

So again, both of these articles have zero victim accounts, all third party accounts, and all of those third party whiteness accounts are relayed directly from Israel/the IDF. Also the first article you linked is from haaretz which is literally Israel state propaganda and it’s incredibly misleading to not disclose that but instead link to archive.ph.

So again, I will ask: Do you have any links to evidence that aren’t from Israel police or the IDF, because when I asked the first time, you gave linked to two articles that use the IDF and Israel police as evidence, when they are the least trustworthy sources in the world right now.

FlapYoJacks fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Dec 7, 2023

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

FlapYoJacks posted:

The music festival on 10/7 had tanks, APCs, and IDF soldiers in full BDUs and weapons. It was clearly a legitimate military target.
Also, the reports from that day say that Hamas DID go after the IDF and the IDF blind fired at anything that moved, killing tons of civilians in the process.

Unless this is supposed to be sarcasm, you are terribly incorrect. You might have seen a miscaptioned video with policemen at the festival who were there to ensure security, because the IDF arrived there only over an hour later.

AAP posted:

Alongside footage shot by a festival-goer, the caption reads: “Breaking: IDF was firing at Hamas during the music festival from within the crowds — unarmed ravers were not targeted — they were caught in the cross fire!!! The Rave was right next to the militarised border fence.”

The edited footage shows at least four uniformed men attempting to lead festival-goers to safety.

The sound of gunfire and screams can be heard as Hamas militants approach.

But the armed men are not IDF soldiers. Instead, they were among a small number of police officers at the festival site.

Not linking directly to the article just in case, since it contains stills from the video of the attack, but it was widely debunked.

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

They did capture high ranking military personne thoughl?



Again, not sure if it's sarcasm, but they didn't.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-nimrod-aloni-israel-hamas-gaza-captured-493462949098

E:

FlapYoJacks posted:

So again, both of these articles have zero victim accounts, all third party accounts, and all of those third party whiteness accounts are relayed directly from Israel/the IDF. Also the first article you linked is from haaretz which is literally Israel state propaganda and it’s incredibly misleading to not disclose that but instead link to archive.ph.

So again, I will ask: Do you have any links to evidence that aren’t from Israel police or the IDF, because when I asked the first time, you gave linked to two articles that use the IDF and Israel police as evidence, when they are the least trustworthy sources in the world right now.

Haaretz is not state propaganda, what are you on about?

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Dec 7, 2023

Grem
Mar 29, 2004

It's how her species communicates

Kalit posted:

Tough poo poo then. If they can't go after military personnel/politicians who are doing the enacting/enforcing (for whatever reason you're insinuating), they have absolutely zero chance of making a change by going after random civilians. It'll just give said politicians an even more convenient excuse to enact a faster genocide, as we see what's currently happening.

Yea Palestinians should just roll over and slowly starve to death

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Grem posted:

Yea Palestinians should just roll over and slowly starve to death

Don't be uncharitable, they did say they had a right to go after politicians and military figures. Too bad (or "tough poo poo," as they say) that Hamas doesn't have the capability to take out Netanyahu or the Knesset.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

FlapYoJacks posted:

So again, both of these articles have zero victim accounts, all third party accounts, and all of those third party whiteness accounts are relayed directly from Israel/the IDF. Also the first article you linked is from haaretz which is literally Israel state propaganda and it’s incredibly misleading to not disclose that but instead link to archive.ph.

So again, I will ask: Do you have any links to evidence that aren’t from Israel police or the IDF, because when I asked the first time, you gave linked to two articles that use the IDF and Israel police as evidence, when they are the least trustworthy sources in the world right now.
Both the UN and the BBC say that they saw direct video and photo evidence. For what I would hope are obvious reasons those are not being published. And what the gently caress are you talking about with Haaretz, it's a liberal paper that the Israeli government hates and wants to sanction because it has published articles that are inconvenient to its war effort.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/communications-minister-proposes-sanctions-against-haaretz-for-false-propaganda/

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 01:34 on Dec 7, 2023

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


I don't see how arguing that Hamas had no choice isn't as silly as somebody suggesting all Hamas fighters go self immolate like Thich Quang Duc.

In either case, you are making big assumptions about what is possible for a group whose people and operations you know barely anything about and it just becomes an extension of your previous biases.

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Both the UN and the BBC say that they saw direct video and photo evidence. For what I would hope are obvious reasons those are not being published.

None of the videos show rape. One of them was a video of a whiteness miming what she saw provided by Israeli police.

And from the BBC article you linked to but didn’t read:

bbc posted:

The BBC has not been able to independently verify this account, and Israeli media reports have questioned some testimony from volunteers working in the traumatic aftermath of the Hamas attacks.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

You literally said, 'if they can't go after military personnell/politicians,' they can and they did. And they were able to make a change even with those who weren't. They traded civilian hostages for civilian hostages. Plus more than half of those killed on October 7th were IDF according to Haaretz and that Israeli government tweet with the victim's names and ranks.

Oh come on, if you actually paid attention to the post I was responding to, you would know that it was obviously their hypothetical :rolleyes:

Judgy Fucker posted:

Considering the asymmetry between Israel and Hamas' capabilities, how do you suggest they do that? With an emphasis on avoiding civilian casualties, of course.

Grem posted:

Yea Palestinians should just roll over and slowly starve to death

How does massacring civilians help them break free from Israel's grip?

Kalit fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Dec 7, 2023

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

Judgy Fucker posted:

All of me thinks so. Razing Gaza to the ground, as they are in the process of doing, is utterly counterproductive to achieving the aim of "destroying Hamas." All it does is engender more hatred and degrade Israel's international standing. Genocide was always the goal.

Besides, it looks more and more like the Israeli state was well aware of what Hamas was planning and did nothing. Why? a casus belli.

Nothing in your source discusses who was doing the short selling. Given that Netanyahu's popularity is dropping dramatically and the 10/7 attack seems to be considered a massive intelligence failure, I'm not sure how you get from your article to Israel knowing the attack was coming but doing nothing so they'd have a casus belli.

Source on Netanyahu's popularity:
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/18/a-lot-of-discontent-netanyahu-alone-as-israel-turns-on-wartime-pm

Judgy Fucker posted:

What is loaded about it? Kalit has opinions on how Hamas should resist Israel's genocide, I'm trying to tease out exactly how they should go about doing it.

"Focus on members of the military or government instead of children and other civilians" seemed like such an obvious answer that even asking seemed loaded to me.

DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 01:43 on Dec 7, 2023

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Kalit posted:

How does massacring civilians help them break free from Israel's grip?

See the last 2 months?

Irony Be My Shield posted:

It's true that they couldn't verify that account. But at the same time:

No one has ever used photos from another event and pretended they were from this one, and that's why we can safely ignore when a paper says it can't independently verify them if the account is lurid enough.

e:
My mistake, hadn't heard that.

WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Dec 7, 2023

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012
I should point out, for the argument that Israel's response would have been different if civillians didn't die, that Israel uses the figure of 1200 rather than the 800 or so that comprises civillian casualties.

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Israel presented unequivocal evidence of rape

This came up earlier in the thread; the UN has not judged whatever Israel provided as being unequivocal evidence. That's the description used by Israel's own diplomat, who served on the legal committee of the UN three years ago. This issue seems to stem from a Michael Weiss tweet that deliberately omits this.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

FlapYoJacks posted:

None of the videos show rape. One of them was a video of a whiteness miming what she saw provided by Israeli police.

And from the BBC article you linked to but didn’t read:
It's true that they couldn't verify that account. But at the same time:

quote:

Multiple photographs from the sites after the attack show the bodies of women naked from the waist down, or with their underwear ripped to one side, legs splayed, with signs of trauma to their genitals and legs.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Irony Be My Shield posted:

I think it should be remembered the method Hamas has chosen is, in addition to being morally reprehensible, incredibly loving stupid. Israel now has the political will and enough cover in the eyes of its allies to cause far more damage to Gaza than it ever did before and ultimately destroy Hamas, all the while oppressing other Palestinian territories more than ever. Nothing has improved or ever will improve for Palestinians due to October 7th, the only question is how much can the damage caused by Hamas' colossal fuckups be mitigated.

Having the hostages' families (and sometimes the hostages themselves) publicly blasting the Israeli government is probably the biggest political achievement Hamas has gotten in years.

By insisting on refusing to negotiate and then failing to blast Hamas into surrender, Netanyahu has opened his government up to major domestic political pressure from a highly sympathetic and popular constituency that can't so easily be dismissed as leftist traitors. And the fact that his coalition is trying to do that anyway deals a second political wound against Israel's willingness to pursue hardline tactics against Gaza.

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Irony Be My Shield posted:

It's true that they couldn't verify that account. But at the same time:

And these photos have been verified they are from the day of the attack at the correct location and are actual documented victims of the attack by whom? Because again, if those photos were provided by Israeli police or the IDF they are immediately suspect unless independently verified by a neutral third party. Preferably at least two.

FlapYoJacks fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Dec 7, 2023

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Kalit posted:

How does massacring civilians help them break free from Israel's grip?

By making the apartheid and genocide unsustainable for the population.

DeadlyMuffin posted:

Nothing in your source discusses who was doing the short selling.

Do Israeli hedge fund managers have access to Israeli intelligence? Otherwise who would be doing the short selling?

DeadlyMuffin posted:

"Focus on members of the military or government instead of children and other civilians" seemed like such an obvious answer that even asking seemed loaded to me.

As I've already asked, how does Hamas meaningfully have the ability to do this? And I don't care about taking out some scrubs stationed in the Negev. How is Hamas supposed to go after Netanyahu et al.?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

See the last 2 months?

Even if Gazan militants manage to push the IDF out of Gaza, what improvement will there be in lives of regular Gazans? Will Israel end the blockade after they pull out without 'destroying Hamas'? Will Israel recognise Palestine as the result of this war? Right now Gaza is in much stronger grip of Israel and due to the utter devastation inflicted by bombings, will be even more dependant on humanitarian aid that Israel will still fully control the flow of. And on top of that Israel will ramp up its mistreatment of Palestinians outside of Gaza. When and how will positive change start to materialise?

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012

Irony Be My Shield posted:

It's true that they couldn't verify that account. But at the same time:

This isn't 100%, but it's possible that they were shown a picture of a defiled Kurdish soldier; the description fits the image, and it was used on one of Israel's bizarre Hamas websites (recropped & blurred to dodge reverse searches), but appeared prior in May of this year on a Japanese news site. Granted, this could have been a different but similar, valid, picture of a raped woman at the festival, but it wouldn't be the first time Israel provided faulty evidence behind closed doors so it could be laundered.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Paladinus posted:

Even if Gazan militants manage to push the IDF out of Gaza, what improvement will there be in lives of regular Gazans? Will Israel end the blockade after they pull out without 'destroying Hamas'? Will Israel recognise Palestine as the result of this war? Right now Gaza is in much stronger grip of Israel and due to the utter devastation inflicted by bombings, will be even more dependant on humanitarian aid that Israel will still fully control the flow of. And on top of that Israel will ramp up its mistreatment of Palestinians outside of Gaza. When and how will positive change start to materialise?

They've shifted the entire geopolitical reality of the Middle East. Normalisation is dead and the citizens of the other Arab countries are angry and motivated. Israel is in a far more precarious situation than it found itself on the 6th of October. They've fundamentally shifted or solidified opinion of Israel in the minds of younger people globally. And there is major criticism of Israel's actions even within the halls of power of the Great Satan. People's War is a marathon, not a sprint.

e: Also they're costing the Israeli economy tens of billions of dollars.

WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Dec 7, 2023

Grem
Mar 29, 2004

It's how her species communicates

Paladinus posted:

Even if Gazan militants manage to push the IDF out of Gaza, what improvement will there be in lives of regular Gazans? Will Israel end the blockade after they pull out without 'destroying Hamas'? Will Israel recognise Palestine as the result of this war? Right now Gaza is in much stronger grip of Israel and due to the utter devastation inflicted by bombings, will be even more dependant on humanitarian aid that Israel will still fully control the flow of. And on top of that Israel will ramp up its mistreatment of Palestinians outside of Gaza. When and how will positive change start to materialise?

Really if you can't throw off the yoke of your oppressors in a 24 hour period you shouldn't even loving try.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

Judgy Fucker posted:

Do Israeli hedge fund managers have access to Israeli intelligence? Otherwise who would be doing the short selling?

People who are helping fund Hamas who had some clue this was coming? It'd be smart of Hamas to set this up and get some funding as a result of the attack.

Hamas gets equipment somehow, so financing has to be something they think about.

I'll be curious to see how the investigation plays out.

Judgy Fucker posted:

As I've already asked, how does Hamas meaningfully have the ability to do this? And I don't care about taking out some scrubs stationed in the Negev. How is Hamas supposed to go after Netanyahu et al.?

They have the ability to take soldiers prisoner, and have taken soldiers as prisoners before. If I understand correctly, they have IDF soldiers as prisoners now.

Your framing seems to be that they have no other option besides targeting civilians, but that clearly isn't the case.

Taking babies and other obviously innocent people prisoner gives Israel a propaganda win, as do ghouls who cheerlead it.

FlapYoJacks posted:

And these photos have been verified they are from the day of the attack at the correct location and are actual documented victims of the attack by whom? Because again, if those photos were provided by Israeli police or the IDF they are immediately suspect unless independently verified by a neutral third party. Preferably at least two.

If you click the BBC link it describes a video in which an eyewitness (not a soldier or cop) describes witnessing rapes.

It'd be worth actually reading sources of you're asking people to provide them.

DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Dec 7, 2023

celadon
Jan 2, 2023

By that logic doesn't Israel bombing twenty thousand civilians to death give Hamas a pretty big propaganda win? By all counts, Israel has killed an order of magnitude more civilians than Hamas has, so if public sentiment was based off of civilian casualties you'd expect practically the whole world to be supporting Hamas.

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

celadon posted:

By that logic doesn't Israel bombing twenty thousand civilians to death give Hamas a pretty big propaganda win? By all counts, Israel has killed an order of magnitude more civilians than Hamas has, so if public sentiment was based off of civilian casualties you'd expect practically the whole world to be supporting Hamas.

Yes absolutely. I think Israel's gross overreaction has been a huge propaganda win for Hamas.

I think that's what WhiskeyWhiskers was trying to say above:

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

They've shifted the entire geopolitical reality of the Middle East. Normalisation is dead and the citizens of the other Arab countries are angry and motivated. Israel is in a far more precarious situation than it found itself on the 6th of October. They've fundamentally shifted or solidified opinion of Israel in the minds of younger people globally. And there is major criticism of Israel's actions even within the halls of power of the Great Satan. People's War is a marathon, not a sprint.

e: Also they're costing the Israeli economy tens of billions of dollars.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

celadon posted:

By that logic doesn't Israel bombing twenty thousand civilians to death give Hamas a pretty big propaganda win? By all counts, Israel has killed an order of magnitude more civilians than Hamas has, so if public sentiment was based off of civilian casualties you'd expect practically the whole world to be supporting Hamas.

I would say it's uncertain. If you look at the US as an anecdotal example, there were more people who were supportive of Palestine having their own state in 2009 than a month and a half ago: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/47887-polls-from-the-past-how-opinion-changed-israeli-palestinian-conflict


If you look at US views on Israel's military action in Gaza, there's still a higher approval rate than disapproval: https://news.gallup.com/poll/545045/americans-back-israel-military-action-gaza.aspx


Obviously, it could shift over time. But as of right now, if the US is any indication on global views, I wouldn't say it's a propaganda win.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Dec 7, 2023

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012
On victories, I would argue the following:
- Shattered domestic & regional mythology on the competency & invincibility of the IDF; not only were local forces soundly defeated on Oct 7 by a group numbering a little over a thousand, special forces were dropped in and almost immediately fell. Despite the advantages afforded to those on the defense, according to both's own reporting on their own casualties, Israel lost nearly 400 soldiers & officers, Hamas lost up to 200.
- Israel now needs to divert resources intended to support annexation in the West Bank back to Gaza, even after the war.
- Broke the narrative of "the IDF could kill everyone instantly in a milisecond if they wanted to, so really they're being incredibly restrained"; we're on almost 60 days of continuous carpet bombing of the Gaza Strip, with minimal token restraint and still have failed to break Hamas.
- Frozen normalization efforts for the immediate future; Sauds & Friends will have to wait until the imagery of Israel sieging hospitals and raising menorahs over Arab public buildings fades from the public mind, unless they want to deal with mass unrest.
- Demonstrated Hamas's competency in ground combat against the IDF within Gaza, and the severe shortcomings of the IDF when prepared.
- Have withstood the longest hot war Israel has waged in its modern history without being degraded.
- Cost Israel over 6 billion dollars, on top of unknown economic growth & [this is speculative] security industry opportunities.
- Freed 300 hostages, many of which had been held for years.
- Broken the unanimous support the American public has typically provided Israel, which is continuing to decline.
- Severely damaged both Israel and the US's reputation among the global community.
- Divided support for Israel among the Jewish diaspora ages 18-35, at least in the United States.
- Completely embarassed Israeli intelligence by allowing Israel to siege a hospital that they were completely convinced was Hamas's central command, only to end up empty-handed on an international stage.
- Synthesized a unified method of resistance across Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen that produces tangible pressure on both Israel's military and its economy. If Syria is ever allowed to recover, they will undoubtedly end up the fourth spoke.
- Much as Israel serves as a proof of concept for Western security, Hamas/Lebanon/Yemen have effectively demonstrated Iran's engineering capabilities; they can create incredibly inexpensive weaponry that bypasses defensive systems that Israel has venerated for over a decade. Iran is a tangible regional power that can contest with Israel, and not just annoy them with proxy guerillas.

There's wiggle room to contest parts of this, but I don't think it's overblown to say that Al-Aqsa Flood has shifted both the direction and balance of power in the Middle East. Our unsinkable aircraft carrier & assassination engine is far more vulnerable than previously thought, on all fronts; Military, Economic, and Political. Comparisons to Rhodesia are on the rise.

Now, you can argue that none of this was worth Israel's violent assault on Gazan society, but I'd argue that requires context within the history of the bantustan; Israel has destroyed swathes of Gaza on a whim, unprovoked, prior. The threat of "don't do anything or we will destroy your life" wilts when Bibi has repeatedly hit the "Bomb Gaza" button on a whim.

You can argue that Israel has destroyed all livelihood in Gaza, but Gaza since the blockades has always been reliant on outside aid. Their seas are blockaded, their imports/exports severely hampered by Israel & a US-backed Egyptian regime, they have no airspace, all their electrical plants and most of their water treatment facilities were destroyed long ago. Gaza doesn't have an economy for Israel to destroy, they took care of that long ago. You can't draw investment when your neighbor is notorious for leveling those investments on a whim every other year.

Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 02:43 on Dec 7, 2023

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Paladinus posted:

Even if Gazan militants manage to push the IDF out of Gaza, what improvement will there be in lives of regular Gazans? Will Israel end the blockade after they pull out without 'destroying Hamas'? Will Israel recognise Palestine as the result of this war? Right now Gaza is in much stronger grip of Israel and due to the utter devastation inflicted by bombings, will be even more dependant on humanitarian aid that Israel will still fully control the flow of. And on top of that Israel will ramp up its mistreatment of Palestinians outside of Gaza. When and how will positive change start to materialise?

Oct 7th demonstrated, in a way Israeli politics simply can't ignore, that the blockade is Not Working. They absolutely can't just return to the pre-Oct 7th status quo after that.

The Israeli government's insistence on hardline tactics, refusing all negotiating and focusing entirely on cowing Hamas into surrender via military force, has also been humiliatingly ineffective. And speaking of humiliating, the fact that the fringe right members of Netanyahu can't stop calling the hostages' families traitorous Hamas-lovers isn't exactly making them look great either.

All of this has convinced the Israeli public that they need change. A new prime minister, probably with a new coalition, and likely with a new approach toward Gaza and Palestinians in general. While Gantz isn't substantially to the left of Netanyahu, current polling suggests that elections held soon would allow him to form a government easily with mainstream parties, rather than having to build an increasingly desperate mishmash of fringe-right parties like Netanyahu has.

Moreover, they've shaken up the international consensus as well, forcing foreign politics to take another look at what's happening in Gaza. While that's not necessarily making Hamas any more popular, they were already international pariahs. Israel stood to lose a lot more international respect than Hamas did, simply because Israel had any to lose in the first place - and Israel lost a fair bit with their bloody overreaction. The US delaying arms sales and applying visa bans are both quite new. And of course, it's certainly shaken up the Arab world's normalization with Israel.

FlapYoJacks posted:

None of the videos show rape. One of them was a video of a whiteness miming what she saw provided by Israeli police.

And from the BBC article you linked to but didn’t read:

Personally, I don't think we need to actually see publicly-released direct video evidence of rapes actually happening in order to believe that they may have happened!

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

They've shifted the entire geopolitical reality of the Middle East. Normalisation is dead and the citizens of the other Arab countries are angry and motivated. Israel is in a far more precarious situation than it found itself on the 6th of October. They've fundamentally shifted or solidified opinion of Israel in the minds of younger people globally. And there is major criticism of Israel's actions even within the halls of power of the Great Satan. People's War is a marathon, not a sprint.

e: Also they're costing the Israeli economy tens of billions of dollars.

So what's going to happen? America will finally pressure Israel into a two-state solution, but this time for real? Egypt and Jordan are going to invade Israel? How much money do you think this war costs Gaza? The most realistic positive scenario I see is that discontent with Netanyahu's handling of the Oct 7 attack will result in a new, more moderate government that will pull out of Gaza and quickly return to status quo, condemning Netanyahu along the way and shaking hands with newly placated Western allies. Will they attempt to address any underlying issues with Palestine? Who knows.

Main Paineframe posted:

Oct 7th demonstrated, in a way Israeli politics simply can't ignore, that the blockade is Not Working. They absolutely can't just return to the pre-Oct 7th status quo after that.

The Israeli government's insistence on hardline tactics, refusing all negotiating and focusing entirely on cowing Hamas into surrender via military force, has also been humiliatingly ineffective. And speaking of humiliating, the fact that the fringe right members of Netanyahu can't stop calling the hostages' families traitorous Hamas-lovers isn't exactly making them look great either.

All of this has convinced the Israeli public that they need change. A new prime minister, probably with a new coalition, and likely with a new approach toward Gaza and Palestinians in general. While Gantz isn't substantially to the left of Netanyahu, current polling suggests that elections held soon would allow him to form a government easily with mainstream parties, rather than having to build an increasingly desperate mishmash of fringe-right parties like Netanyahu has.

Has Gantz made any noises to suggest that if he becomes Prime Minister he might lift the blockade or do anything at all to change the situation in Gaza for the best as opposed to just returning to status quo? Has any other opposition politician?


WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Plus more than half of those killed on October 7th were IDF according to Haaretz and that Israeli government tweet with the victim's names and ranks.

According to the Israel Defense Forces, as of December 3, only 398 soldiers have been killed since October 7. That includes 60+ killed in combat in Gaza proper. Where did you get that number?

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Dec 7, 2023

hadji murad
Apr 18, 2006

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Plus more than half of those killed on October 7th were IDF according to Haaretz and that Israeli government tweet with the victim's names and ranks.

Which would make it a far higher rate of killing combatants than what the IDF is doing in Gaza.

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Main Paineframe posted:

Personally, I don't think we need to actually see publicly-released direct video evidence of rapes actually happening in order to believe that they may have happened!

I’m not saying we do. I am saying that none of the videos described in the articles linked describe rape.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Paladinus posted:

Has Gantz made any noises to suggest that if he becomes Prime Minister he might lift the blockade or do anything at all to change the situation in Gaza for the best as opposed to just returning to status quo? Has any other opposition politician?

Gantz is very carefully not talking about the possibility of elections or becoming Prime Minister. He's pretending that he's not even thinking about politics and is focused entirely on running the war properly and shepherding Israel through these difficult times. Which is, of course, a rather classic political tactic, especially from former generals.

I don't think anyone's really articulated a clear post-Netanyahu vision for Gaza just yet, except for the far-right fringe parties. Most of the rest are just sitting back and quietly taking shots at Netanyahu and his coalition of far-right fringe parties with obviously ridiculous plans for Gaza. With Likud polling this badly, they don't feel any need to get particularly specific.

Gantz doesn't have all that much of a political record, but my read on him is that he's a center-right pragmatist whose basic ideas toward Gaza involve working with the Palestinian Authority to marginalize Hamas. What that would mean for military policy is unclear; he's personally overseen multiple assaults against Gaza under Netanyahu's orders (first as a general, later as Minister of Defense) but it's not super clear how attached he really is to that course of action. He's certainly talking big about destroying Hamas now, when he thinks he can claim credit for any successes while dumping the blame for failures on Netanyahu, but it's hard to tell how much of that is deep political conviction and how much is simple opportunism.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Paladinus posted:

So what's going to happen? America will finally pressure Israel into a two-state solution, but this time for real? Egypt and Jordan are going to invade Israel? How much money do you think this war costs Gaza? The most realistic positive scenario I see is that discontent with Netanyahu's handling of the Oct 7 attack will result in a new, more moderate government that will pull out of Gaza and quickly return to status quo, condemning Netanyahu along the way and shaking hands with newly placated Western allies. Will they attempt to address any underlying issues with Palestine? Who knows.

Has Gantz made any noises to suggest that if he becomes Prime Minister he might lift the blockade or do anything at all to change the situation in Gaza for the best as opposed to just returning to status quo? Has any other opposition politician?

It absolutely won't lead to a more moderate Israeli government. It's more likely that it furthers the contradictions and an even more fascist government comes to the fore. That's good.

quote:

According to the Israel Defense Forces, as of December 3, only 398 soldiers have been killed since October 7. That includes 60+ killed in combat in Gaza proper. Where did you get that number?

Alright a quarter by official numbers, the Israeli government tweet I'm thinking of but can't find had more than half of the names with active ranks.

Also lol at the idea that only 60 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza. I guess a lot of them just get out of the rubble with piano teeth and birds spinning around their head when Hamas collapses the buildings they're garrisoning with thermobaric warheads.

Kalit posted:

This shouldn't be your hill to die on. There's lots of reports describing aftermaths of rape, including eyewitness testimony from the Nova festival. A lot of the articles have been linked ITT. I don't understand your (gross) denialism.

Why are you grossly denying the beheading of 40 babies?? Sometimes things aren't true, even if many people say them.

WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 03:20 on Dec 7, 2023

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

FlapYoJacks posted:

I’m not saying we do. I am saying that none of the videos described in the articles linked describe rape.

This shouldn't be your hill to die on. There's lots of reports describing aftermaths of rape and have been eyewitness testimony from the Nova festival. A lot of the articles have been linked ITT. I don't understand your (gross) denialism.

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009

Kalit posted:

This shouldn't be your hill to die on. There's lots of reports describing aftermaths of rape, including eyewitness testimony from the Nova festival. A lot of the articles have been linked ITT. I don't understand your (gross) denialism.

I have asked for reports not from the IDF or Israeli police/politicians and none have been provided. I have directly addressed the articles linked here. Every single one of them directly quotes the IDF, or the Israeli police/government as evidence.

Israel is not a reliable source of information, and until actual independent verification of the testimonies and pictures happen, it is disingenuous to continue to claim Hamas went around and raped people. Buying into, and perpetuating Israeli propaganda should not be allowed here.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

It absolutely won't lead to a more moderate Israeli government. It's more likely that it furthers the contradictions and an even more fascist government comes to the fore. That's good.

Polling doesn't support that in any shape or form, from what I can tell. Unless you think National Unity will for no observable reason take a sharp right turn instead of, as I suggested, trying to go back to status quo on Palestine.

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Alright a quarter by official numbers, the Israeli government tweet I'm thinking of but can't find had more than half of the names with active ranks.

Also lol at the idea that only 60 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza. I guess a lot of them just get out of the rubble with piano teeth and birds spinning around their head when Hamas collapses the buildings they're garrisoning with thermobaric warheads.

You were referencing official numbers, so I cited official numbers.

What's your source on them dying in droves in the rubble? How many Israeli soldiers died in total do you think? More or fewer than Hamas militants?


Paladinus fucked around with this message at 03:31 on Dec 7, 2023

rscott
Dec 10, 2009
I think it's pretty important to define what is actually being alleged as happening here. What Israel and the United States are accusing Hamas of is an organized campaign of rape and sexual assault as a method of inflicting terror on the Israeli people. This is obviously a pretty serious charge, it's one of those crimes against humanity that can really turn public opinion against a government or movement. These accusations should be held separate from the evidence of many crimes that have undoubtedly occurred and should be unequivocally condemned. The evidence of the latter is fully evident, the evidence of the former seems awfully lacking from what the United States and Israel have provided thus far. Meanwhile the at the bare minimum the United States and Israel have demonstrated depraved indifference to civilian deaths and the US is ignoring clear efforts by Israel to systemically destroy civil society in Gaza with very little regard for civilian deaths, which is one of the hallmarks of ethnic cleansing. It's pretty obvious that the intent is to equivocate between these two things that have happened and are continuing to happen and to justify what Israel is doing in Gaza.

Personally I think Hamas should release those 18 women they're holding and claiming as soldiers, and however many people that aren't males of "fighting age", or however many of each they have in their control, because it would be a propaganda coup. I sincerely hope all of the hostages are being treated appropriately as POWs should be under the circumstances. I think everyone can agree to that as a bare minimum. How likely it is that is what has happened and what is going to happen is anyone's guess.

DeadlyMuffin
Jul 3, 2007

FlapYoJacks posted:

I’m not saying we do. I am saying that none of the videos described in the articles linked describe rape.

From here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

quote:

Videos of naked and bloodied women filmed by Hamas on the day of the attack, and photographs of bodies taken at the sites afterwards, suggest that women were sexually targeted by their attackers

quote:

Police have privately shown journalists a single horrific testimony that they filmed of a woman who was at the Nova festival site during the attack.
She describes seeing Hamas fighters gang rape a woman and mutilate her, before the last of her attackers shot her in the head as he continued to rape her.

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Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

FlapYoJacks posted:

I have asked for reports not from the IDF or Israeli police/politicians and none have been provided. I have directly addressed the articles linked here. Every single one of them directly quotes the IDF, or the Israeli police/government as evidence.

Israel is not a reliable source of information, and until actual independent verification of the testimonies and pictures happen, it is disingenuous to continue to claim Hamas went around and raped people. Buying into, and perpetuating Israeli propaganda should not be allowed here.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181

E: See above, same article

Kalit fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Dec 7, 2023

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