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zoux posted:Sorry it's the NY Post but some details on the mass shooter at UNLV yesterday: Seems safe to say that if your first argument against being a crackpot is your MENSA membership status, you are a crackpot.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:41
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm trying to find out the secret to Leonardo DiCaprio's 2010 movie "Inception" from his website. I know people suspect he was mentally ill, but just looking at his website homepage seems like proof. Only a crazy person would design a homepage like this: Shop your auto insurance direct online once a year on your birthday! ...why?
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Dec 7, 2023 21:45
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm trying to find out the secret to Leonardo DiCaprio's 2010 movie "Inception" from his website. I know people suspect he was mentally ill, but just looking at his website homepage seems like proof. Only a crazy person would design a homepage like this: this sorta reminds me of UCLA professor Matthew C. Harris where the guy was a nut and very unqualified but basicaly got hired anyway and basicaly just stalked women who took his changed grades at random. also he had a youtube channel which was insane hotep rape stuff and wrote some insane 100000 something word manifesto. his pages looked alot like that
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Dec 7, 2023 21:57
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Nenonen posted:Shop your auto insurance direct online once a year on your birthday! That actually isn't irrational even if it's phrased a bit oddly. Insurance company target markets change, as do people's circumstances. It's a good idea to shop it around, and doing it online is probably his way of expressing to not trust salespeople. The birthday thing is because of the idea that certain age brackets get better rates, which is mostly a myth. (Age is a factor but it's way way down the list.) It's probably one of the least demented things on that list.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:02
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Okay, I was just confused why you would have to do it ON YOUR BIRTHDAY, as if it was some kind of wholesome celebration of aging to go through dozens of insurance company websites.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:13
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Nenonen posted:Okay, I was just confused why you would have to do it ON YOUR BIRTHDAY, as if it was some kind of wholesome celebration of aging to go through dozens of insurance company websites. Also, your birthday is an easy day to remember. You could pick any other day if you would remember it better.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:36
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Turns out this crazy lone gunman has some great life hacks!
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Dec 7, 2023 22:39
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Bird in a Blender posted:I hope you mean Terry Kath because Peter Cetera suuuuuuccckkkkkssss. Ehhh, I didn't know Terry Kath, just was hoping someone would get the reference to the original name of the band. 
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Dec 7, 2023 22:52
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predicto posted:This point keeps getting ignored in this thread. As does the fact that this disconnect doesn’t exist in any other country. Seems pretty straightforward to me. In 2020/2021 the government took the unprecedented (at least for my 25 years of adult life) step of sending out thousands of dollars to nearly every American and nearly a trillion to businesses. In addition, it expanded access to government healthcare, fed school kids, increased unemployment benefits, and maybe more I am forgetting. Since then, those direct benefits to lots of Americans have stopped. None of those benefits are captured in economic indicators like real hourly wages and job openings.
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Dec 7, 2023 23:25
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I stopped listening to your argument right here. Literally working hourly right now my man - and you are statistically wrong. Here's some analysis about how wage gains were happening and who was moving jobs in 2022 from pew: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/07/28/majority-of-u-s-workers-changing-jobs-are-seeing-real-wage-gains/ Notice especially how education level and age have a strong predictive effect. It's not that changing jobs is pleasant, but it is easier if your goal is to work in retail or a similar sector. There is a larger pool of potential employers, and the interview process is usually one stage. In contrast, if you are job hunting in tech it usually takes 2 or even 3 interviews, you are likely to have to do a fuckload of work on your resume and accomplishments, and if you stay out of the sector for any length of time you will never get back in. This isn't dissing people that have legit trouble with finding jobs, or otherwise saying that salaried work is better or superior, but there are a lot more openings for retail or food service than for geological surveyor or whatever, and the more you specialize your skill set the more difficult it is to say "gently caress you, I'm gonna work for the other guy". Sometimes there is no other guy, or the other guy is on the opposite coast. Normally, having that level of replaceability and lack of job security is ONLY bad - but for the last several years it has actually led to people working hourly having a lot more say because you can jump ship and have most of your skills transfer reignonyourparade posted:Making more money for less work than any point in my life as one of those below median low skilled workers very explicitly because my boss is desperate to keep me around because he can't hire anyone* and I very much doubt he's offering that much below market if he's being willing to bump the lay of rhe people he does have kn response, very much does not seem like lots of people who want few available jobs to me. This guy has leveraged his labor, and so have all the people that said "gently caress that, I can make the same amount with less physical labor". BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 23:31
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I feel like this probably warrants its own thread by this point, but I also thought of two things on my bus ride home today re: polling and “why is it a uniquely American thing that this is so weird.” I’m an American who has lived basically most of my adult life in Europe, working with various European nationalities and now I’m back stateside. I wonder how much of this weird polling stuff is influenced by cultural norms. My two comments: 1. Americans in general are really loving weird about pay and salary in general. Ask your coworkers and friends how much they are making and they start squirming around uncomfortable. We are discouraged to share our salary, some companies even prohibit it though I can’t imagine how that’s enforced. 2. Americans in general I find more optimistic, more bubbly, and more “look on the bright side.” I’ve also heard this sentiment a lot from my European friends and coworkers because they’re confused why I’m not like that. Americans will tell you their day is going good, even if it’s going poo poo. Americans will play with words and twist them to describe a more positive rosy view. So I guess what I’m saying is that if people are asking what’s different in Europe vs America, you would need to consider these types of cultural norms. Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 23:51
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joe football posted:I kind of wonder if maybe the upper quartile not making gains compared to people below them or what they're used to might be skewing the general view of 'the economy' vs your personal situation. Elites always have an outsized impact on pretty much any public discourse and if your boss/manager/local business owner is talking about how the economy is bad, hey those guys know 'the economy'(and might get quoted in the news, etc) even if I'm doing ok I think part of it is that tech, journalism, and academia have disproportionate impact on The Discourse and all have problems (that tech recession after the interest rate hike and longstanding issues in journalism and academia). The economy isn't good for the people who write about the economy.
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Dec 7, 2023 23:54
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Boris Galerkin posted:I feel like this probably warrants its own thread by this point, but I also thought of two things on my bus ride home today re: polling and “why is it a uniquely American thing that this is so weird.” I’m an American who has lived basically most of my adult life in Europe, working with various European nationalities and now I’m back stateside. I wonder how much of this weird polling stuff is influenced by cultural norms. It is almost always illegal for employers to prevent this. In certain cases they can make it (slightly) more difficult, but generally speaking, employers cannot forbid it.
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Dec 8, 2023 00:09
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Shooting Blanks posted:It is almost always illegal for employers to prevent this. In certain cases they can make it (slightly) more difficult, but generally speaking, employers cannot forbid it. Sure but they can put it in the employee handbook and enforcement would just be fired without reason because it’s America baybe you don’t need a reason to be fired effective immediately.
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Dec 8, 2023 00:26
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The rate of inflation has decreased! The economy is doing better! Prices are still going up despite all the excuses for the price increases with supply chain etc being resolved. Nothing is doing better. The prices ought to come down
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Dec 8, 2023 00:43
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FlamingLiberal posted:No, this is purely revenge for the Trump impeachments Crackhead advisors to burisma. Perfectly legit.
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Dec 8, 2023 00:45
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:Crackhead advisors to burisma. Perfectly legit. If cocaine/drug use made you unqualified to be an executive, 99.9% of them would be fired immediately.
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Dec 8, 2023 00:59
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Boris Galerkin posted:Sure but they can put it in the employee handbook and enforcement would just be fired without reason because it’s America baybe you don’t need a reason to be fired effective immediately. I actually made the company I work for remove this clause from our employee handbook by printing out a copy of the Taft-Hartley act and putting it on HR's desk. My own personal situation is that I am on track to finally make around the same this year that I made in 2019, but of course, everything is 20-25% more expensive. I took a 30% or so paycut in 2020 (moved from hourly to salary with no reduction in duties and only a ~$2000 raise) and I've been trying to claw my way back for the last 4 years. I have a bunch more CC debt that is a lot more expensive to service and all of my long term financial goals have been delayed by like 4 years. I honestly don't know how I would answer a poll that is a 4 point scale like that because my personal answer would be, "ok I guess". Does that shade to good? Do I go on and say fairly bad? Probably would depend on what day I was polled. If they redid that poll with a 5 point scale I am willing to bet a substantial portion of the polled group would answer neutral and those people would mostly come from the people who are currently answering "fairly good" for their own personal situation. Maybe the reverse is true for how people would judge the economy?
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Dec 8, 2023 01:00
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:The rate of inflation has decreased! The economy is doing better! Wages have to come up. Prices basically can't ever come back down to 2019 levels without an associated economic disaster. I can't find a single post 1800 example of deflation over a percentage point or two that wasn't either brought on by or the cause of an associated downturn in economic activity and outlook. If you have a counter example of this occurring, I'd like to hear it.
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Dec 8, 2023 01:36
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rscott posted:I actually made the company I work for remove this clause from our employee handbook by printing out a copy of the Taft-Hartley act and putting it on HR's desk. The act that says that employees can discuss their wages is the NLRA/Wagner Act.
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Dec 8, 2023 01:39
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SubG posted:Which is amazing, since Taft-Hartley is a pro-capital act that restricts the power of unions. It prohibits wildcat strikes and closed shops and allows states to pass "right-to-work" laws. Taft Hartley was an amendment to the Wagner Act that left that right intact so I think maybe that's why I used it? I don't remember exactly since it was like 12 years ago at this point.
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Dec 8, 2023 01:48
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Kagrenak posted:Wages have to come up. Prices basically can't ever come back down to 2019 levels without an associated economic disaster. I can't find a single post 1800 example of deflation over a percentage point or two that wasn't either brought on by or the cause of an associated downturn in economic activity and outlook. I’m saying food prices that were inflated due to the supply chain issues come back down. Instead they just kept raising prices and are pulling in record profits. That’s not going to cause massive deflation to make food cheaper
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Dec 8, 2023 02:03
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Part of the problem is that both things are happening. Sticker prices are way way up. But sale price isn’t necessarily. Here’s an example. A cider six pack was 8.99 or 9.99 regularly before the pandemic but was marked 11.99 or 12.99. Now it’s 11.99 to 12.99 regularly but marked 18.99. Or name brand soda. Before the pandemic list price 5-6 bucks sale 3.50 to 4.50. Now list prices are 10-12 and sales are weird buy two get two or get three free intermittent sales putting sales prices at 4-6 dollars. This I think is part of what I’d going on with inflation. There is a growing gap between list /day to day shelf prices and the actual normal people sale prices. They are targeting two markets, one price insensitive (regular price) and one price sensitive (sales price). This always used to happen but it’s exaggerated now. I think because it’s maximized by algorithms. Before it was a general pricing strategy now it’s the done at the optimum maximized revenue point for each store. That feels insanely lovely to encounter as a shopper.
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Dec 8, 2023 02:25
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https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1732908864931057853 So former Speaker McCarthy said Democrats look like America, Republicans look like a restrictive country club. Funny he's free to say that now that he's announced his quitting.
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Dec 8, 2023 02:26
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Those leopards are feasting on faces today
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Dec 8, 2023 02:51
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A little late to realize you're on the wrong side of history.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:03
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MickeyFinn posted:Seems pretty straightforward to me. In 2020/2021 the government took the unprecedented (at least for my 25 years of adult life) step of sending out thousands of dollars to nearly every American and nearly a trillion to businesses. In addition, it expanded access to government healthcare, fed school kids, increased unemployment benefits, and maybe more I am forgetting. Since then, those direct benefits to lots of Americans have stopped. None of those benefits are captured in economic indicators like real hourly wages and job openings. That is a much better theory than the one that people have been running with here, which is: "the polling is accurate because I anecdotally feel that everything has doubled in price at my supermarket (while refusing to acknowledge that the polling results on the economy closely tracked official stats until two years ago, when it suddenly veered off, and that this veering off is only happening in the USA and not in all the other western countries who also had bad Covid problems and have even worse inflation than the US) Your theory is plausible, and I would add that Americans perhaps are naturally going to be more nervous about the economy than other westerners because our social safety net is so lovely that the consequences of losing your job/being poor are much worse here. Add in the fact that half the country gets its economic information solely from sources that openly lie, and maybe we get there. For the record, I'm not saying the economy is good or fair. I'm trying to understand why the economical polling is suddenly so disconnected from official economic statistics than it was only 2 years ago, and is so much more disconnected than it is in other countries. I'm happy say that the economy sucks for most people. But it also sucked for them in 2020, in basically the same ways.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:06
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Boris Galerkin posted:I feel like this probably warrants its own thread by this point, but I also thought of two things on my bus ride home today re: polling and “why is it a uniquely American thing that this is so weird.” I’m an American who has lived basically most of my adult life in Europe, working with various European nationalities and now I’m back stateside. I wonder how much of this weird polling stuff is influenced by cultural norms. this is also a good point
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Dec 8, 2023 03:07
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BonoMan posted:Yeah I mean tech job data has to be skewing this data about pay raises right? Nobody I know is getting raises or anything remotely good enough to keep pace with the increases and I'm not in low level jobs. I keep hearing about "pay is increasing faster than inflation!" and literally EVERYONE I know is screaming "for loving WHO?!?!" Tech workers are the people who mostly aren't getting raises. The growth is largest among low-wage unskilled jobs, which got shook up hard by the pandemic, extended unemployment, and other measures accompanying or following the pandemic. Meanwhile, skilled white-collar workers who already made solid money aren't seeing raises keeping up with cost of living. When it was first observed, I thought it was quite an encouraging trend which boded well for US politics, but instead it seems like it's just splitting the Dems across class lines. Highly-educated six-figgie liberals who fancy themselves to be champions of the working class are thinking that Biden ruined the economy because neither they nor their friends saw real wage growth. Internet leftists who've long considered themselves the vanguards of class solidarity think the economy took a dump because they can't afford a mortgage anymore or had to cut back on their retirement savings. Both groups seem largely unaware of the significant gains for the actual poor, and they don't seem inclined to think their own losses are worth those gains for the poor. And I have a deep, sinking fear that we're going to end up with Trump again due to that. BonoMan posted:Ok so what impact can a tiny increase in low wages actually have on the ability to buy groceries when those folks were likely struggling to begin with? A lot! The marginal utility of a few bucks is way larger for people who don't have many bucks than it is for people who already have a lot of bucks! This is why, for example, a flat tax is bad. When you're struggling, every single dollar matters! Dismissing the impact of wage growth for poor people and then saying it's "utterly hosed up" that you have to set less money aside for retirement is, I think, pretty ridiculous.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:13
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predicto posted:For the record, I'm not saying the economy is good or fair. I'm trying to understand why the economical polling is suddenly so disconnected from official economic statistics than it was only 2 years ago, and is so much more disconnected than it is in other countries. I'm happy say that the economy sucks for most people. But it also sucked for them in 2020, in basically the same ways. Sentiment lags and what we feel in the grocery store in prices is the integral of recent inflation. A great deal of reporting has been on “disinflation” the first derivative of inflation. Getting the first integral of negative while inflation is still positive doesn’t change how the increase in prices the integral from 2020-2022 feels to us now in 2023.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:16
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Main Paineframe posted:
Oof that is definitely not the point I was trying to make. I wasn't dismissing the impact of wage growth. I was saying that if the price increases are making a material impact on me, someone who can absorb the impact more, then it's definitely gotta be hitting lower wages even harder and that's hosed up. BonoMan fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Dec 8, 2023 |
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Dec 8, 2023 03:21
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in less vibes related news hunter biden has been indicted on nine tax related charges. this is in addition to the outstanding firearm related charges and stem from the tax delinquencies he was going to plead out as a misdemeanor before a judge squashed the dealquote:The special counsel investigating Hunter Biden, the president's son, charged him on nine counts related to his failure to pay federal taxes on millions of dollars of income.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:25
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Main Paineframe posted:Both groups seem largely unaware of the significant gains for the actual poor, and they don't seem inclined to think their own losses are worth those gains for the poor. And I have a deep, sinking fear that we're going to end up with Trump again due to that. And if we do have a recession and associated short deflationary period, that poorer group then also gets hurt by it the most!
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Dec 8, 2023 03:27
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Bar Ran Dun posted:And if we do have a recession and associated short deflationary period, that poorer group then also gets hurt by it the most! Yeah, much as I miss the $5 footlong, real deflation is a nightmare and I don't think most people realize how much 90 years of monetary policy have been focused around avoiding it.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:40
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It’s normal to have a brief sharp deflationary period at the start of a recession. Usually it doesn’t last very long. The job losses are usually the bigger damage.
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Dec 8, 2023 03:50
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If inflation can stay relatively stable in the 2-3% range, then I think in a year we may see the sentiment start matching the economy. I think it’s still just the sticker shock for everyone buying the everyday stuff like groceries, and for people looking to get a loan. At some point people will come to accept this as the new normal, but right now everyone still keeps thinking prices will come down when that is extremely unlikely to happen. I think the fed rate being so low for so long has really skewed a lot of perceptions of what is normal. The rate we’re at now is historically normal, but practically a whole generation of people spent their adult life thinking a 3.5% mortgage was normal, when it was actually very low. It’s looking like rates are going to flatten out though.
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Dec 8, 2023 04:00
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Bar Ran Dun posted:It’s normal to have a brief sharp deflationary period at the start of a recession. Usually it doesn’t last very long. The job losses are usually the bigger damage. There is. I just mean that the "return to the prices we remember" that a lot of people (sympathetically) hope for wouldn't be a recession. The 2009 recession for example had less than a point of deflation: it wouldn't have erased a single year's worth of inflation of the "good years" of the 2000s or 2010s, which were themselves low-inflation in a post-1934 sense. That would be a full-on depression, the kind of years-long crunch we saw every ten or twenty years until modern economic policies were developed specifically to prevent them. Bird in a Blender posted:I think the fed rate being so low for so long has really skewed a lot of perceptions of what is normal. The rate we’re at now is historically normal, but practically a whole generation of people spent their adult life thinking a 3.5% mortgage was normal, when it was actually very low. It’s looking like rates are going to flatten out though. This is absolutely true. We cut interest rates to zero as an emergency measure and then never lifted it. Which had problems in itself since the interest rate is an important safety margin to keep in case of economic emergency. But it happened so long that it became the new normal.
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Dec 8, 2023 04:09
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Low interest rates have also completely skewed how people perceived what made for a good investment. The modern VC world and the "unicorn" phenomenon we saw in the tech sector recently would not have happened without ridiculously low interest rates making everything seem like a better alternative to just letting your cash sit. I'm wondering how old (or high-ranked) you have at a bank before you meet someone with personal experience in underwriting loans or bonds in a non-ZIRP environment.
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Dec 8, 2023 04:13
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I think that, while people dislike high prices very intensely, when you ask people “how do you think the economy is doing?” a lot of people are basically answering the question “so what have you heard in the news about the economy?” It’s absolutely absurd to dismiss the idea that the US media environment is playing a major role. I mean, you can quibble with the wording of the questions in that Financial Times survey, but a supermajority of Americans being wrong about everything suggests there's a big, big problem here (and also explains very succinctly why people "trust Republicans on the economy.") Regarding the understandable displeasure about high prices…. there’s an interesting phenomenon I think is in play here (and relates to some of that 'new normal'-type stuff mentioned immediately above). It seems to me that because inflation was so slow for such a long period of time, people got lackadaisical about mentally adjusting their idea of “what’s a good price for [x]” or “what’s a good salary that means you’ve ‘made it’.” So, prices keep slowly creeping up, and maybe you sort of feel like everything is kind of expensive all the time, but your expectations change… it’s just takes those expectations a while to change, and now that the inflation is on the higher side they don’t have a chance to catch up. That’s why people were able to tolerate 4-5% inflation fine in the 1980s - they had gotten used to prices consistently creeping up (and demanded pay increases that recognized that they did) so when prices crept up more slowly they actually noticed (well, “noticed”) and appreciated it. So the result is that you see a lot of people say “I’m paying [50%/100%/150%” what I used to for groceries!” when they’re probably paying in the 25-35% range, like everybody else relative to 2019 - they’re just mentally comparing 2023 prices to, like, 2014 prices, not 2019 prices, because their 2014 model of “so what’s poo poo about cost?” was still working as a decent heuristic for what poo poo cost, even though it was lowballing pretty much everything. Here’s an “economic fact quiz” questions Americans would definitely get wrong: how much inflation was there between 1993 and 2019? 102%. That poo poo was pretty’ subtle. (I’m paying $12.50 an eighth in 2004 dollars for weed, sounds like a good economy to me )This amplifies that effect: Bar Ran Dun posted:This I think is part of what I’d going on with inflation. There is a growing gap between list /day to day shelf prices and the actual normal people sale prices. They are targeting two markets, one price insensitive (regular price) and one price sensitive (sales price). I am also pretty sure that algorithms are playing a major role in people with steady employment getting inadequate pay adjustments to cover inflation. "So, exactly how much can we stiff them where they won't quit?" It doesn't help that people understand inflation and what causes it so badly that, in the case of a small business especially, a long-faced manager can probably tell someone he can only afford a 2% bump because "of this economy," as he smirks and increases all the prices on his menu another 10%, and some people would absolutely buy that poo poo. Those who live abroad will have to tell me, because maybe I'm way off base, but I have a feeling these kinds of pricing schemes, designed to squeeze every last penny out of people's desire for convenience, are more widespread and more pronounced in America than in other places (although I assume things like that are spreading worldwide rather quickly, as American economic maladies can tend to.)So that could help to explain the the local anomaly. Once the prices got jacked up, and the exploitative algorithmic pricing kept squeezing them for extra whenever it could, people started to get pretty sick of it. (Of course, that hypothesis relies on my theory of this kind of thing being more common in the US.) Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 04:35 on Dec 8, 2023 |
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Dec 8, 2023 04:16
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:I’m saying food prices that were inflated due to the supply chain issues come back down. Instead they just kept raising prices and are pulling in record profits. That’s not going to cause massive deflation to make food cheaper Usually deflation doesn't happen unless there is economic catastrophe, which I think even the most pessimistic here can agree that there is not, at least not in the way there was the last time we had deflation (2009-2010). However, I can think of a way that it actually could happen now... the answer lies in SA's most notorious and toxic subforum, Coupons. There was very little inflation for many years. Then there was. People were mad about the prices, but - as Bar Run Dun and I were discussing yesterday - not doing much to try to circumvent them. Over time, people have come up with ways to mitigate the price increases. Making changes to what they buy to cut out the most expensive items, or going to Aldi and getting whatever's cheap. So all of a sudden that $7 bag of chips isn't flying off the shelves anymore, it's sitting there waiting for the next person who doesn't even bother checking their account statement each month (or day) to walk by and say "gently caress it." (And then probably go online and complain about paying the price.) I mean, we haven't a period of rapid inflation, or really even MODERATELY high inflation, in 30 years... maybe that deflation could only happen as a result of economic catastrophe in the 1970s economy doesn't mean that's the case now. You couldn't google "Wait do I really have to pay $8 for Cheerios?" in 1978. I guess what I'm saying is that the algorithmic pricing only works until people catch onto it. MickeyFinn posted:Seems pretty straightforward to me. In 2020/2021 the government took the unprecedented (at least for my 25 years of adult life) step of sending out thousands of dollars to nearly every American and nearly a trillion to businesses. In addition, it expanded access to government healthcare, fed school kids, increased unemployment benefits, and maybe more I am forgetting. Since then, those direct benefits to lots of Americans have stopped. None of those benefits are captured in economic indicators like real hourly wages and job openings. Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Dec 8, 2023 |
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Dec 8, 2023 04:26
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