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Are there any Latin American Countries that support or even remotely support Venezuela's actions?
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Dec 6, 2023 20:36
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zoux posted:Right now it's because this is somehow all Exxon's fault and so *really* the Venezuelan military would be invading Exxon.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:40
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Enver Zogha posted:On a related note, Cuba has historically had good relations with Guyana and has been on record favoring the Guyanese claim to the disputed region since 1981. Guyana is apparently seeking Cuban mediation. zoux posted:Brazil is reinforcing the relevant borders This is what I was getting at prior; nobody in the region wants Venezuela to rock the boat, especially right now, and the political ties aren't as clear cut as "these are the socialists, these are the neoliberals", Maduro can saber rattle all he wants but the moment he actually tries to go through with any of this is when things fall apart. Venezuela's economy has been recovering, and unless they are Russia and happen to have an entire massive war economy that was hidden under the cushions during a round of shock therapy, this would only hurt them in the short term.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:53
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Gucci Loafers posted:Are there any Latin American Countries that support or even remotely support Venezuela's actions? Listened to three people pipe up about it who are living in the Contested Region and all of them said some variation of "we have no cultural demand to be venezuelan, we are connected to guyana culturally and economically, we don't like venezuela, like at all, and we aren't a silently seething pro-venezuela populace chained under some yoke crying for liberation. Uhh just thought we should get to saying that now because we just have a feeling a lot of people gonna start reinventing our story for us soon, just get that suspicion"
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Dec 6, 2023 20:54
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Neurolimal posted:Venezuela's economy has been recovering, and unless they are Russia and happen to have an entire massive war economy that was hidden under the cushions during a round of shock therapy, this would only hurt them in the short term. A better question, does Guyana even have an effective or large military? I know Venezuela does have armed forces but I can't imagine jungle combat or the terrain is going to make it easier for attackers.
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Dec 6, 2023 20:59
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Elias_Maluco posted:Agreed, though I think it would not be a direct military intervention, just money, arms, maybe some new sanctions If Venezuela decides to invade, seems like they'll easily take the territory unless another country directly intervenes.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:01
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Cicero posted:Guyana isn't even a million people. Even with money and arms they likely can't really resist. Well the part about having to drive through Brazil to get there is a little awkward, but even if Maduro figures that out what good does it do him to invade today? Maybe I'm missing the timely factor that makes it worth it for Maduro to immediately possess this land that no one really lives in and there is nothing to at present do there. Isn't the oil offshore? How is it going to be easier for Venezuela to throw up oil rigs if they hassle whoever is living in those jungles?
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Dec 6, 2023 21:10
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He can simply take those rigs along with all of that equipment which is worth plenty. I'm sure Russia, China and other countries probably don't give a gently caress and would gladly help him drill.
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Dec 6, 2023 21:16
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DynamicSloth posted:Well the part about having to drive through Brazil to get there is a little awkward, but even if Maduro figures that out what good does it do him to invade today? Why would they do that
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Dec 6, 2023 21:19
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the initial articles on this dispute mentioned this part of guyana was "resource rich", which was kind of nebulous, but apparently what that actually means is that guyana has increased its gdp per capita over 500% in the last 8 years. total gdp grew over 66% last year and is on track for over 33% this year. it has the highest proven reserves per capita of any country on the planet, which suddenly brings the issue into a clearer light
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Dec 7, 2023 02:17
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https://twitter.com/jguaido/status/1731468179761713493
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Dec 7, 2023 02:52
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bipartisan support for annexing half of Guyana 
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Dec 7, 2023 03:42
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Gucci Loafers posted:Are there any Latin American Countries that support or even remotely support Venezuela's actions? No, but that doesn't stop some of the left from manufacturing consent and rewriting history on Guyana; see: https://x.com/realgreenigma/status/1732222845395018124?s=46
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Dec 7, 2023 04:07
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Gucci Loafers posted:A better question, does Guyana even have an effective or large military? I know Venezuela does have armed forces but I can't imagine jungle combat or the terrain is going to make it easier for attackers. It has only 5000 soldiers compared to 100k + auxillaries for Venezuela. Given its maduro’s government even absent the almost guaranteed Brazilian/American intervention he’ll probably find some incredibly novel and innovative way to still somehow lose
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Dec 7, 2023 04:14
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i fly airplanes posted:No, but that doesn't stop some of the left from manufacturing consent and rewriting history on Guyana; see: https://x.com/realgreenigma/status/1732222845395018124?s=46 The whole left response to this whole situation is just... insane but again it's the the left. BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It has only 5000 soldiers compared to 100k + auxillaries for Venezuela. Given its maduro’s government even absent the almost guaranteed Brazilian/American intervention he’ll probably find some incredibly novel and innovative way to still somehow lose Do they have any air force or modern military equipment? Are Venezuela soldiers willing to fight in this war? Does Guyana have any allies that would pitch in or at least lend support?
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Dec 7, 2023 07:10
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mobby_6kl posted:Did they find any Nazis in Guyana yet? Did any of the spooks behind Jonestown stay there?
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Dec 7, 2023 09:09
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i fly airplanes posted:No, but that doesn't stop some of the left from manufacturing consent and rewriting history on Guyana; see: https://x.com/realgreenigma/status/1732222845395018124?s=46 Because Guyana is selling some of its oil (imperialism), Venezuela should forcefully take all its oil (not imperialism).
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Dec 7, 2023 09:36
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biglads posted:Did any of the spooks behind Jonestown stay there? Gucci Loafers posted:Do they have any air force or modern military equipment? Are Venezuela soldiers willing to fight in this war? Does Guyana have any allies that would pitch in or at least lend support? My city has more cops and equipment than Guyana has military. I feel like Lula would be against the invasion but I wouldn't count on him intervening either.
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Dec 7, 2023 11:42
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mobby_6kl posted:or do you mean if anyone involved is still there? No idea. Once in a while there's suggestions in Guyana to transform the location of the settlement into a tourist spot, but it never gets anywhere since barely anything from the settlement still exists, it would cost a lot of money, there's no guarantee whatsoever that it'd pay off, lots of Guyanese don't like the association of their country with a thousand dead Americans, and any deterioration of relations with Venezuela could easily ruin what tourist revenue might exist. It's generally assumed among the reasons the Guyanese government had agreed to the creation of the original settlement was to strengthen claims to the disputed region (on the premise Jonestown would prosper) and also make the United States reluctant to side with Venezuela if it meant American lives would be potentially endangered. Enver Zogha fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 16:12
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mobby_6kl posted:My city has more cops and equipment than Guyana has military. I feel like Lula would be against the invasion but I wouldn't count on him intervening either. Yeah, he would never; More likely he would try to make everyone sit togheter and find a peaceful solution But I dont think Venezuela will invade either edit: I dont know whats happening inside Venezuela now but I would bet there some internal politics reason for Maduro to be making that noise. And that it is just that: noise Elias_Maluco fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 16:19
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Isn't the more likely situation that Venezuelan coast guard etc mess with any drilling operations in their "new" EEZ rather than actually invade any land.
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Dec 7, 2023 16:50
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https://x.com/EmbassyGuyana/status/1732743188245250302?s=20
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Dec 7, 2023 16:53
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Enver Zogha posted:Nah, there aren't any. As someone who has read pretty much every book on Peoples Temple out there, communicated with a few of the survivors, and occasionally helps out the husband and wife team who run the Alternative Considerations of Jonestown website, I'd be glad to answer any questions relating to the subject.  (the linked statement) quote:In collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force (GDF), the U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7. This exercise builds upon routine engagement and operations to enhance security partnership between the United States and Guyana, and to strengthen regional cooperation.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:03
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Elias_Maluco posted:Yeah, he would never; More likely he would try to make everyone sit togheter and find a peaceful solution As I understand it (and posted about yesterday), any Venezuelan invasion of Guyana would have to pass through Brazilian territory and they're like nah quote:Brazil's top diplomat for Latin America and the Caribbean, Gisela Padovan, said the main road connection between Venezuela and Guyana is through Brazilian territory due the inaccessible terrain of the Esequibo, but its use in any military action would not be accepted by her country. They're deploying their own forces to the region to discourage Venezuelan aggression.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:08
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mobby_6kl posted:are there any good (credible) books you'd recommend? quote:As for best books, in terms of overall histories of Jones, the Temple, and Jonestown, Raven by Reiterman is still the standard work almost 40 years after it was released. The Road to Jonestown by Guinn, which came out a few years ago, incorporates a good deal of additional info and sources that have appeared over the past decades. Among other general histories are The Cult That Died, White Night (which focuses a lot on Guyana), Gone from the Promised Land (an academic treatment situating Jones in the context of American society and religion), and A Thousand Lives.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:23
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As I understand, most of Guyana's oil is offshore, which I guess means not having to go through Brazil to try seizing, but also much easier for an allied power to just park some ships around. The border itself is mostly impassable jungle.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:25
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Gucci Loafers posted:The whole left response to this whole situation is just... insane but again it's the the left. Guyana is allied with the US UK France and Brazil, really every country with a significant military and power projection in the region (and Britain lol). Having huge oil reserves that could fall into the hands of an unfriendly nation helps their willingness to help of course it is also of course the homeland of Mew and Mewtwo but whether they will even involve themselves in the affairs of humans much less fight for them is impossible to say
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Dec 7, 2023 17:45
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In other words, "Don't even think about it, Nicky."
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Dec 8, 2023 00:51
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Is Maduro that dumb? Or does he think he can at least get something out of it?
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Dec 8, 2023 01:07
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the least stupid / most actually productive option would be to do a north korea and use this as a fake concession in his ongoing talks with the US / other regional states whether that's his plan is known only to the upper echelons of the PSUV e: i mean i guess he could sit and wait for the ICJ to return its actual ruling but then why would he be blustering about this in the first place? seems like that would be him 'backing down' to no particular gain Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 02:09 on Dec 8, 2023 |
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Dec 8, 2023 01:43
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Ironically, the last time the US stood up to defend the sovereignty of a South American country also involved Venezuela.
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Dec 8, 2023 02:21
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I'd like to preface this all with the fact that I think it's plenty possible that this won't come to a major conflict. It's possible that Maduro is just saber-rattling to get attention or get a better negotiating position, and it's also possible that if he invades, if he does it fast enough that the fighting's done before anyone can react, the rest of the world may just shrug and slam him with some more sanctions. That being said, I've been paying attention to some navy stuff lately and I wanna post it. First off, the Venezuelan navy. They've got one. Here's one guy's overview of it. Missile boats, a few ships that can carry helicopters, which I guess would be relevant for seizing oil rigs. Not a great track record. H I Sutton posted:The Venezuelan Navy has not seem much action. On March 30 2020 a one of their patrol ships, ANBV Naiguata (GCG-23), scored a rare maritime kill. It sunk itself by ramming an ice hardened cruise ship, RCGS Resolute. The incident called into question the training and leadership of the navy. But at the same time it showed an increasingly aggressive stance. But what about Guyana's potential allies that could come to its aide? Well, the US can project planes everywhere in the world, but our big ships actually happen to be busy deployed elsewhere right now. It's interesting reading about navies, because often you can just look up the transponders of the big ships to find out where they are. It's usually not a big secret with the bigger ships, they're pretty obvious, and you can even find news stories tracking them. Here's a map of the US's big ships right now, most of our carriers are deployed around Asia right now because of other politics.  https://news.usni.org/2023/12/04/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-dec-4-2023Of the other big powers that could weigh in on things, obviously Brazil is right there. France's aircraft carrier is reportedly parked in Marseilles. The UK's two aircraft carriers are currently in Virginia and Norway. Oh yeah, but also there is that one US ship on that map relatively close to Venezuela. That's the Healy, an icebreaker ship.  An icebreaker like the cruise ship that Venezuela lost a ship ramming in 2020. So it would be very funny if the US decided to turn it around to posture against Venezuela. (Right now it's Seattle bound after hanging out in Scandinavia back in October)
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Dec 8, 2023 02:43
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SlothfulCobra posted:
I don't generally post here, but have been following for years and so wanted to make a slight addendum/correction to this. USNI tracks deployed vessels, not ALL major ships all the time. Case in point, the USN has 11 full-sized carriers, but there are only 5 CSGs listed on that map. Of the remaining 6 carriers, one has currently started mid-life refueling and so will be completely down for years, but at least some of the remaining 5 should be capable of being surge deployed if required. How many, which ones and where they are I can't answer offhand (3 are homeported on the West Coast, 2 in Norfolk), but it should be at least 2-3 of them. Relatedly, it's also only listing 2 of the Marines' 9 active LHA/LHDs. So presumably some number of those are potentially available as well, if for some reason someone thinks actual ground forces and/or a less impressive air presence is wanted.
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Dec 8, 2023 07:10
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Maduro is throwing a tantrum.quote:Venezuela’s AG orders arrest of opposition members, accuses them of plotting against referendum https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-opposition-referendum-machado-guaido-0f615a5aa835a4cae7d83403321c6c6d
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Dec 8, 2023 09:32
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In the (hopefully) extremely remote event Maduro actually attacks Guyana in some form and the U.S. intervened in response, there would be little need for a large American naval presence. A carrier strike group would be something of a luxury given the large number of U.S. military airbases on the Gulf Coast (Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, Tyndall, McDill, Homestead, and Eglin Air Force Bases and Naval Air Stations Jacksonville, Pensacola and Key West in Florida, Guantanamo, etc.)
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Dec 8, 2023 09:37
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Russia is saying this should be resolved diplomatically. And its not usual Venezuela has been very patient with Western aggression waffling either. https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-calls-for-peaceful-end-to-guyana-venezuela-row-f24e9fad Maduro doesn't seem to have the backing of a single ally over this. He has no deterrence from a potential American intervention from allys or resources (a la Europe being dependent on Russian oil and gas), military (no nukes, his military isn't really going to be able to do anything but immediately be on the defensive with the US or even the Brazilians.), or even destabilization (His country is already the source of a Syria-esque refugee crisis in peacetime.) With this statement I think this goes from a 3% chance of amounting to anything more than sabre-rattling to 0. I think Maduro is smart enough to realize this is one of the weakest hands you could have and that nobody is really forcing him to play.
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Dec 8, 2023 17:33
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I think earlier Maduro already wore out a lot of the prospective goodwill of China and Russia by taking money for loans that they haven't really been paying off, and there's been plain ol' investments that haven't worked out because Venezuela hasn't really increased their oil production like China wanted. And now China's economy is plateauing and they're under a lot of economic stress so they won't spread money around like they used to, and Russia has a wholeass war going on that they are struggling to produce enough materiel for themselves to use, much less sell to others.
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Dec 8, 2023 20:16
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SlothfulCobra posted:I think earlier Maduro already wore out a lot of the prospective goodwill of China and Russia by taking money for loans that they haven't really been paying off, and there's been plain ol' investments that haven't worked out because Venezuela hasn't really increased their oil production like China wanted. It's also hard to see how Venezuela potentially expanding their oil production would help Russia. Destabilization in the western hemisphere on the other hand might help, but it's just hard to see this having even as much effect as the Hamas attack on global stability.
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Dec 8, 2023 20:27
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https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1733232424941715919
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Dec 8, 2023 22:13
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Russia has invested a huge amount of time and energy in the global south, and what it desperately does not what is for one of the regimes it has been visibly propping up to do something that results in every political leader in the region saying 'actually yeah when the chips are down we are obviously going to turn to the US as our guarantor of stability'.
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Dec 8, 2023 22:33
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