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d64 posted:Bloomberg reports that Russia's oil revenue in October, 11.3 billion dollars, was higher than during any of the twelve months before the start of the invasion. Ukraine needs to start sinking tankers that dock in Russian ports.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:22
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Volmarias posted:You don't have to like something to consider it as a possibility. There's a lot of things happening right now that are likely to develop into dangerous bullshit, but I can't just pretend they aren't possible. Either I don't get what you're trying to say, or you didn't understand me. To turn this conflict into a lasting stalemate, Ukraine would need more supplies. To give them a chance at winning in the long term, they'd need even more. At current levels, Russia will attrit Ukraine and take more territory eventually. If negotiations happen under these circumstances, they will be about de facto capitulation, not peace or ceasefire. The people who think they can lean back and wait for negotiations because there's a stalemate now are completely and utterly wrong.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:46
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Collapsing Farts posted:Russia recently called in another 170.000 men as well so they are having some issues with manpower They changed the number of people they can have in the military. They haven't done the callups to fill those new, empty billets yet.
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Dec 7, 2023 17:52
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There's really strange tg post from Kadyrov from a couple of days ago. He posted a video where Chechen soldiers destroy a 'communication tower'... in the Belgorod region for some reason?quote:[Akhmat-West] left the enemy without comms by hitting a repeater tower in the Belgorod region with a precision salvo.  At first I thought that maybe it was a typo, but the post's been up for a while now. There are no recent reports of incursions into Belgorod either. It doesn't look like anything that Ukrainians could build quickly, or indeed, something they would even need for communication. It's stupid, but are they just blowing up random towers within Russia for tiktok cred now?
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Dec 7, 2023 18:30
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EW systems, radars, comms relays, etc. are often put on towers. Who knows why Kadyrov would shoot a Russian tower, though.
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Dec 7, 2023 19:03
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Ynglaur posted:Ukraine needs to start sinking tankers that dock in Russian ports. That would be a pretty major escalation. It’s something that would also have major repercussions for other countries. The Baltic terminals would be a big no no. Several of the pacific ports could also be problematic Something like the Siberia 1 gas pipeline is a better target.
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Dec 7, 2023 19:17
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Paladinus posted:There's really strange tg post from Kadyrov from a couple of days ago. He posted a video where Chechen soldiers destroy a 'communication tower'... in the Belgorod region for some reason? Maybe it's just the low picture quality, but that looks like it's a screenshot from a Fallout game. Like the image looks completely artificial.
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Dec 7, 2023 19:24
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Foggy, blurry, low contrast bullshit? I guess I can see what you mean.
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Dec 7, 2023 19:40
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There was a video with dramatic music. https://www.yapfiles.ru/files/3040600/a2bad48123284892d706d345b317d9d5.mp4?hq=1&token=MDMwNDA2MDAtMTcwMTk3NDkzNg
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Dec 7, 2023 19:50
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d64 posted:Bloomberg reports that Russia's oil revenue in October, 11.3 billion dollars, was higher than during any of the twelve months before the start of the invasion. Any idea how this happened? Like I thought Russia lost most of the European market for oil so is it just being made up for by India and China?
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Dec 7, 2023 21:10
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LRADIKAL posted:Foggy, blurry, low contrast bullshit? I guess I can see what you mean. It was poo poo with a drone and if you've ever seen drone videos from this war they all look like that.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:12
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Paladinus posted:There's really strange tg post from Kadyrov from a couple of days ago. He posted a video where Chechen soldiers destroy a 'communication tower'... in the Belgorod region for some reason? Commenting on anything stupid posted by Kadyrov seems like a waste of time, but... - maybe he has a different understanding of how far the oblast extends, just like Putin has misunderstood where the external borders of Russia lay? - it might also be meant to mean that they are at the very border between Russia and Ukraine, Kadyrovites in Belgorod oblast and the target inside Ukraine - one Konkurs or other ATGM is not going to do much of a difference to it unless it hit the electronics square on, congrats on hitting a relatively small target though unless the explosion was added in post process - since the range of an ATGM is only fourish kilometers, it really begs the question why didn't Russia just drop some 152mm shells on it and not leave anything standing??? Kadyrov's propaganda is the worst. I have doubts that the missile launch and the missile hit segments are of the same event even, but blehhhh...
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Dec 7, 2023 21:25
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Charliegrs posted:Any idea how this happened? Like I thought Russia lost most of the European market for oil so is it just being made up for by India and China? Russia crude oil didn't take much of a hit in revenue so it's very much possible. Most of what Europe bought was pipeline gas and to a lesser extent refined oil products.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:27
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Mr. Apollo posted:I’ve come across several articles this evening that says that Biden is open to “significant concessions” on border security in exchange for getting the Ukraine funding bill passed. So it looks like the funding bill will play out like many people suspected. Not soon, and it's really not looking good. This shouldn't have needed a sweetener in the first place, and tying it to an Israel aid package was supposed to be a sweetener and it's still not sweet enough so now they "want" border security crap added on to it. The problem is, Republicans don't care about policy right now, they care about this stupid obstructionist showboating crap and sticking it to Joe Biden. In normal times, the cost of doing this would be going back to constituents asking "why didn't you pass this?" but they can 100% get away with not passing anything. "Not passing anything" is pretty much the way they govern anyway. Israel will do just fine without an aid package unless they get embroiled in a regional conflict, and the border security crap looks way more like a poison pill than an important policy objective.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:43
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OneEightHundred posted:https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1732799829401632942 My guess is biden gives them concessions on border stuff at least for the senate and then we see what happens in the house.
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Dec 7, 2023 21:54
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Dapper_Swindler posted:My guess is biden gives them concessions on border stuff at least for the senate and then we see what happens in the house. Just bringing up "border security" should be a hint that they want to just kill it because it's pretty well-established that they care way less about reducing illegal immigration than they do about getting mad about Democrats allowing it.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:12
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Charliegrs posted:It was poo poo with a drone and if you've ever seen drone videos from this war they all look like that. I think it's a real drone shot. I'm just dogging on fallout.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:14
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If we're talking about demographic problems stemming from casualties of the war, is it not relevant to point out that an estimated three times that number, (around a million,) of mostly conscription age Russians have fled the country to avoid being fed into the meat-grinder?
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Dec 7, 2023 22:16
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Svaha posted:If we're talking about demographic problems stemming from casualties of the war, is it not relevant to point out that an estimated three times that number, (around a million,) of mostly conscription age Russians have fled the country to avoid being fed into the meat-grinder? Smart of them, but it's mostly the people who could afford to leave. I honestly don't expect they're going to have problems "volunteering" people from gently caress-off nowhere.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:18
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Volmarias posted:Smart of them, but it's mostly the people who could afford to leave. I honestly don't expect they're going to have problems "volunteering" people from gently caress-off nowhere. I'm sure they won't have trouble finding more meat; Russia will probably be running up against equipment supply problems before they run out of people use it. I'm talking specifically about demographic problems stemming from Russia losing a huge chunk of conscription age middle class people from a cohort that is already pretty thin as illustrated by some of the population pyramids posted above. I Svaha fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Dec 7, 2023 |
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Dec 7, 2023 22:27
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Svaha posted:I'm sure they won't have trouble finding more meat, but I'm talking specifically about demographic problems stemming from Russia losing a huge chunk of conscription age middle class people. Ah, that's tomorrow's problem, don't worry!
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Dec 7, 2023 22:30
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Volmarias posted:Ah, that's tomorrow's problem, don't worry! Is it though? Those people are missing from the Russian economy right now. I guess it's hard to say at what point losing that many people in a specific age bracket starts to have noticeable effects.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:36
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OneEightHundred posted:My guess is the Senate will come up with a compromise that will die in the House, and the House will continue to blockade Ukraine aid until it gets tied to something that's actually painful for them to vote down, and it's not clear what that would be, especially since it's already split off from the NDAA. yeah basicaly. Svaha posted:If we're talking about demographic problems stemming from casualties of the war, is it not relevant to point out that an estimated three times that number, (around a million,) of mostly conscription age Russians have fled the country to avoid being fed into the meat-grinder? Yeah, I had a friend of a friend from an art discord who does audio dubs for cartoons is one of those and he got out to turkey after a long time of him going radio silent, havent heard from him lately.
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Dec 7, 2023 22:41
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Svaha posted:Is it though? Those people are missing from the Russian economy right now. I guess it's hard to say at what point losing that many people in a specific age bracket starts to have noticeable effects. It is an over time effect. The pain of missing them for a shorter period isn't *that* bad, but the reason it is a big problem is that they are never coming back. I'm sure the effect until now has not been negligible but there's probably other factors (sanctions, war economy) that hurt more for the time being.
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Dec 7, 2023 23:27
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venn diagram of "people who were able to bug out of russia fast by the millions" almost totally encloses the circle of "people with the vital technical skills or advanced qualifications to run a country's economy and infrastructure" so you know that russia's had some insane braindrain maduro got to explore this issue real reaaaall close when something like 6-7 million venezuelans were just outright abandoning and evacuating the country, and the people who had the easiest time with getting the gently caress out were, you know, anyone who could even know how to restart the country's largest power turbines if they ever shut down for any reason ever without completely destroying them
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Dec 8, 2023 00:04
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There aren’t many people that can start a truly cold power plant even in the US.
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Dec 8, 2023 04:02
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There aren’t many people that can start a truly cold power plant even in the US. Better not draft them then
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Dec 8, 2023 06:40
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Volmarias posted:Better not draft them then A large portion of them are produced by the maritime schools. I had to be able to start a vessels cold dead plant on a simulator. There are group of alumni that got into doing it for new shoreside plants. Vessel plants go down more than most people would be comfortable knowing during maneuvering. So marine engineers get gud so to speak.
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Dec 8, 2023 08:15
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Svaha posted:Is it though? Those people are missing from the Russian economy right now. I guess it's hard to say at what point losing that many people in a specific age bracket starts to have noticeable effects. cynically, the upcoming generation of tajik and kyrgyz youth fill in your basic labor pool, and your currently self-displaced specialist labor returns in the long run, or at least continues to be enmeshed in your economy despite residing abroad which, to be clear, isn't something to discount entirely, but it's not quite a crisis either
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Dec 8, 2023 08:52
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Russian brain drain happened way before the war and it has nothing to do with the draft. They had a anti-intellectual sway back in the mid 2010s with the usual suspects: attacking, privatising education, taking over and directly controlling universities and now culture war bullshit.
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Dec 8, 2023 14:44
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Charliegrs posted:Any idea how this happened? Like I thought Russia lost most of the European market for oil so is it just being made up for by India and China? The price of oil went up and, as you've stated, it turns out that lots of places need and want oil.
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Dec 8, 2023 16:53
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Bholder posted:Russian brain drain happened way before the war and it has nothing to do with the draft. They had a anti-intellectual sway back in the mid 2010s with the usual suspects: attacking, privatising education, taking over and directly controlling universities and now culture war bullshit. The war certainly hasn't helped.
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Dec 9, 2023 10:04
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Bholder posted:Russian brain drain happened way before the war and it has nothing to do with the draft. They had a anti-intellectual sway back in the mid 2010s with the usual suspects: attacking, privatising education, taking over and directly controlling universities and now culture war bullshit. Same as it ever was. Major segments of science were effectively outlawed under Stalinism as anti-communist, and after that I know several people whose families simply got out of Dodge as soon as the Iron Curtain fell for various reasons.
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Dec 9, 2023 10:47
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Interesting article on the Russian economy by Meduza: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/1...-for-the-future quote:Shortages of industrial capacity and labor will also limit Russia’s manufacturing development, says Raiffeisenbank analyst Stanislav Murashov. Additionally, further hikes to the key interest rate will slow the growth of wages and complicate the work of upgrading enterprises technologically. With nearly full employment, labor will redistribute across sectors, driving workers from areas hit by rising interest rates like construction, retail, and finance into enterprises in Russia’s military-industrial complex, predicts Bloomberg Economics chief economist Alexander Isakov, who says future rate hikes will reduce lending and, in turn, consumer demand, raising the risk of another recession in the next six months to more than 70 percent. So I think its another case of things having an effect, but smaller than we hoped. We'll have to wait and see if borrowing to fund the MIC will have long term impacts, but the most critical thing will probably be global oil prices. Meanwhile: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1733346476485464086#m At least one company does seem affected by sanctions.
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Dec 9, 2023 19:22
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WarpedLichen posted:Interesting article on the Russian economy by Meduza: Uhh, is the author aware of the rate hikes and full employment in other countries?
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Dec 9, 2023 19:29
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https://x.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1733501583822856341?s=20 https://x.com/KatjaBody/status/1733805799435010376?s=20 The article is paywalled, unfortunately. I don't think Welt has a particular sensationalist reputation, but German goons may correct me.
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Dec 10, 2023 12:27
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://x.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1733501583822856341?s=20 https://archive.is/nRXjA and then throw it into Translate.
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Dec 10, 2023 13:13
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My theory has always been that it was Russian domestic terrorists possibly with Ukrainian support. And nothing in that article goes strongly against it. They have a boat with explosive trails, and a previous crew that spoke Ukrainian and Russian and most were Russian citizens. Which makes sense if they are from the occupied region. But it also might have been a false flag, by either side. The boat was owned by an Ukrainian guy, who was being investigated for pro Russian domestic terrorism in Ukraine after the 2014 invasion.
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Dec 10, 2023 13:37
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://x.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1733501583822856341?s=20 Nah, Welt is dogshit unfortunately. Frankly, all these exclusive revelations coming out every few months claiming it's possibly maybe probably this or that party are getting tedious. There shouldn't be another article about Nordstream until the available evidence can be made public. If that means we won't know until after the war, so be it.
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Dec 10, 2023 13:57
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You can't blow up an oil pipeline with just a boat, you need divers, explosives, training, and all sorts of special military equipment. A non-state actor simply doesn't have the resources to do it imo.
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Dec 10, 2023 14:25
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