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Business Gorillas
Mar 11, 2009

:harambe:



actionjackson posted:

some people seemed to think "defund" meant "reduce funding" which is not correct at all and really hurt the movement

Can't believe people thought people saw the word "defund" and immediately thought "hey they want to prevent the police from receiving funds"

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Nichael
Mar 30, 2011



this is some kind of illness

Toph Bei Fong
Feb 29, 2008



Happy Noodle Boy posted:

can he dance to the spice girls tho

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcEc8zeNYxI

(Also, it was the Scissor Sisters)

edit: video of Trump's America, circa 2025 (the Doctor is Biden)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbb56jZo0rE

Uncle Wemus
Mar 4, 2004

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/17...ingawful.com%2F

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

It's a who wrote Metamorphesis

The Chad Jihad
Feb 24, 2007


The fired low wage workers are simply being hired back as high wage workers, foolish tankies

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006


They are. They're gonna spend two billion dollars losing to Trump! :chaostrump:

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021

HootTheOwl posted:

https://x.com/whstancil/status/1734642944014012507?s=20
I must be reading this wrong: Is he saying there is an increase because so many low-wage workers were fired?

Okay so. Covid hits. all quantiles go up because low-wage jobs disappear. Afterward, the 50/90 percentiles go down. The argued explanation is that re-hiring low-wage earners gives us the down-ward trend in wages. But that cannot be so, because the 10th percentile line stays high. If re-hiring brings down wages, and that re-hiring was concentrated in the low-wage category, the 10th percentile should have come down as well.

i am probably missing something

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
fetterman's skull is like a pumpkin, the longer you look at it the more you know it's loving rotted and full of mold

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:

i wish dr oz had won

Uncle Boogeyman
Jul 22, 2007

wait a minute...

-super racist
-hardcore zionist
-brain exploded in the runup to an election

my god! Jon Fetterman was Joe Biden this whole time!

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

SixteenShells posted:

if the observation is "our metrics aren't reflecting the polling", why is the assumption that the people are wrong instead of that your metric is poo poo? If my thermometer said it was 80F outside when it's actively snowing, I'd throw the thermometer out, not argue with the clouds

edit: and it's not like they're disputing the polling itself! I'd have more respect for them if their position was "the polling is flawed". but no! the argument seems to be "the polling is correct, it's just the people who are wrong" which who the gently caress cares why they're wrong? your metrics are descriptive, not prescriptive.

IT'S A COMPOSITION EFFECT YOU DOOFUS

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

Business Gorillas posted:

Can't believe people thought people saw the word "defund" and immediately thought "hey they want to prevent the police from receiving funds"

there's a difference between removing all funds and just reducing though. defund means the former (at the very least, most people read it that way). i suppose "reduce police funding" isn't as catchy though

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

HootTheOwl posted:

It's a who wrote Metamorphesis

RIP low wage workers by the thousands

read too much Latin poetry and died

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

The Chad Jihad posted:

The fired low wage workers are simply being hired back as high wage workers, foolish tankies

The dumbest part of this is that this really did happen to some degree. I know a few people who got laid off during the pandemic who were able to get higher paying jobs thanks to a combo of the checks and unemployment benefits allowing them to not have to settle, but mostly those folks aren't happy with the economy either because we all intuitively feel what he's saying the graph doesn't say, that our money doesn't go as far as it should (even if some percentage has more money than 2019). And for everyone I know who got an upgrade, I know way more who didn't.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I mean, there is a simple solution to Stancil's "composition issues" argument:

Look at household income rather than wages. If it is about data composition with low income wage earners leaving and then joining the market, then if we looked at household income it should be flat or going up. After all, that is not sensitive to this composition issue.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N


oops

SomethingBeautiful
Oct 22, 2008

Some celestial event. No- no words. No words to describe it. Poetry! They should have sent a poet. So beautiful. So beautiful... I had no idea

I got a sizeable raise as one of the few people who didn't get fired or die and yet I'm not any better off than before, is there a graph that will make me feel better about this?

1glitch0
Sep 4, 2018

I DON'T GIVE A CRAP WHAT SHE BELIEVES THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS CHANGED MY LIFE #HUFFLEPUFF

ex post facho posted:

fetterman's skull is like a pumpkin, the longer you look at it the more you know it's loving rotted and full of mold

Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007

SomethingBeautiful posted:

I got a sizeable raise as one of the few people who didn't get fired or die and yet I'm not any better off than before, is there a graph that will make me feel better about this?

i could yell at you, call you a piece of poo poo for a little while, see if you that works

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

i could yell at you, call you a piece of poo poo for a little while, see if you that works

this shows management potential

Brigadier Sockface
Apr 1, 2007

Toph Bei Fong posted:



(Also, it was the Scissor Sisters)


Someone didn't see last weekend's episode of Doctor Who!

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

SixteenShells posted:

Okay so. Covid hits. all quantiles go up because low-wage jobs disappear. Afterward, the 50/90 percentiles go down. The argued explanation is that re-hiring low-wage earners gives us the down-ward trend in wages. But that cannot be so, because the 10th percentile line stays high. If re-hiring brings down wages, and that re-hiring was concentrated in the low-wage category, the 10th percentile should have come down as well.

i am probably missing something

A brave little theory, and actually quite coherent for a system of five or seven dimensions -- if only we lived in one.

Asproigerosis
Mar 13, 2013

insufferable
I'm a health care worker and got bigly raises thanks to covid killing all my coworkers and nobody wants to work anymore. Still doesn't loving matter, the inflation got huge and allowing companies to keep price gouging is a direct fault of democrats terrible failure at governance. Just cause you dumb assholes took all the daily essential items out of CPI calculations cause it looks real loving bad if you include them doesn't mean they just go the gently caress away and aren't being suffered by people struggling every loving day.

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb
"this graph is the cornerstone of my argument"
"the graph says that you're wrong"
"You idiot! Anyone with a brain can see the graph is bullshit!"

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

Stancil is really testing the theory of internet arguments where the more strongly you insist everyone else is stupid the more correct you become

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

I currently get paid more than I did a year ago by a considerable margin!

This is because I got laid off and spent six months getting another job at a higher job title than I had previously, and lost six months' worth of income and had to pay for a few months of COBRA in the process, and everything is more expensive now so it doesn't really matter and this phase of my career progression is effectively neutralized. How does that show up on the graph

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

I watched my grocery bill double despite buying the same stuff under the Biden administration.

Everyone else has also noticed that groceries are basically doubled in price.

It's that simple.

The Sean
Apr 17, 2005

Am I handsome now?


HootTheOwl posted:

https://x.com/whstancil/status/1734642944014012507?s=20
I must be reading this wrong: Is he saying there is an increase because so many low-wage workers were fired?

"low income people"

like he's accidentally admitting there is a caste system and people are either born low income or livable income

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

WampaLord posted:

I watched my grocery bill double despite buying the same stuff under the Biden administration.

Everyone else has also noticed that groceries are basically doubled in price.

It's that simple.

I think you will find that you are actually buying better groceries, because you are so rich and happy

Salt Fish
Sep 11, 2003

Cybernetic Crumb

WampaLord posted:

I watched my grocery bill double despite buying the same stuff under the Biden administration.

Everyone else has also noticed that groceries are basically doubled in price.

It's that simple.

BEING ABLE TO AFFORD FOOD HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ECONOMY!!!!

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

loquacius posted:

I think you will find that you are actually buying better groceries, because you are so rich and happy

When you think about it, shrinkflation is just a way to make Americans healthier. Thank you, brands.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

loquacius posted:

I think you will find that you are actually buying better groceries, because you are so rich and happy

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
You're just spending down your savings! They were abnormally high because of all the free money you got. It's all fine.

World Famous W
May 25, 2007

BAAAAAAAAAAAA
funny enough ive been eating better poo poo the last few years since i gave up on politicin' and spent that energy helping a food bank. god drat are we a wasteful loving country

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

https://twitter.com/GDebatta/status/1734325373460963610

Strangelet Wave
Nov 6, 2004

Surely you're joking!
my family is doing just fine savings and wage-wise in recent years especially as compared to when i quit my teaching job in 2020-2021 for what should be obvious reasons

but the pandemic has really made it emphatically clear to me that “the economy” is a cast iron misery machine fueled by blood and I no longer have any positive feelings about it, where does that put me

Rubellavator
Aug 16, 2007

part of stancil's thing seems to be that people answering polls about the economy should only be using their own personal circumstances which i think is really dumb

Iverron
May 13, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1734615840262107204

Aight folks it's Nate Silver vs Will Stancil who are we backing here

the follow back part is pretty funny I’m not gonna lie

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actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

HootTheOwl posted:

https://x.com/whstancil/status/1734642944014012507?s=20
I must be reading this wrong: Is he saying there is an increase because so many low-wage workers were fired?

this is showing wages going up quite a bit for the 10th percentile of earners? what am i missing here

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