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Ornery and Hornery posted:Someone on the ringer podcast pulled the stats and if you only included Purdy’s passes that were at or behind the line of scrimmage he’s a top 5 qb in basically every category. That’s not praise for Purdy, that’s damning evidence. https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/brock-purdy-rank-yards-after-catch/1680922/ Far be it from me to doubt the word of a The Ringer podcast, but I’m not sure it’s the damning evidence you think it is. Pretty sure it’s not any kind of evidence.
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Dec 14, 2023 06:46
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Someone on the ringer podcast pulled the stats and if you only included Purdy’s passes that were at or behind the line of scrimmage he’s a top 5 qb in basically every category. That’s not praise for Purdy, that’s damning evidence. it's praise for having a head coach who can just manufacture offense at will. god who even cares about MVP, QB rankings, "eliteness" when you have that? literally no other team with any QB, including Patrick "God Himself" Mahomes, has an offense as good as San Francisco. They are a machine that works on all levels and every other fanbase should envy them
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Dec 14, 2023 08:01
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Something that probably makes for a decent offseason thread would be to go back and look at the last 23 or 24 years of MVP winners and pick who did the most with the worst scheme and players around them.
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Dec 14, 2023 08:43
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Also QBs have a hand in YAC because ball placement is huge there You see loads of plays where poor ball placement requires a player to turn back or slow to catch it which kills any chance at YAC
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Dec 14, 2023 11:27
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I think it was this one? In any case Kyle Shanahan deserves COY in every way and no one else is close. https://twitter.com/thestevenruiz/status/1734600337820889448?s=46&t=DcBXErlGIUJUj8quAgYfkQ
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Dec 14, 2023 11:48
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Diva Cupcake posted:I think it was this one? In any case Kyle Shanahan deserves COY in every way and no one else is close. It’s insane this is the same guy Matt Ryan started ignoring his first year in Atlanta.
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Dec 14, 2023 11:50
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FizFashizzle posted:It’s insane this is the same guy Matt Ryan started ignoring his first year in Atlanta. He probably wont get the award because people like to give it to the biggest coaching turnaround for whatever reason, but Shanahan is the best in football.
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Dec 14, 2023 12:29
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Doing some maybe slightly erroneous napkin math but I believe if you replace Purdy's YPA on those passes with Josh Dobbs' (league worst for ppl who don't want to click or squint), his rank in overall YPA would drop from 1st to 1st. Damning. Like obviously the Niners have the most likely crop of pass catchers to house a screen pass, I'm not sure why that in itself reflects poorly on Purdy when his own numbers hold up perfectly fine on passes other than that. Especially since he actually throws relatively few of those balls, I believe he's like 2nd fewest in % of throws behind the LOS. Say what you will about scheme/talent/value/etc but I'm amazed the Captain Checkdown stuff still has legs. And maybe that's not the intended implication but since it's Steven Ruiz and every time I see that guy pop up he's clearly very mad about people giving him poo poo for ranking Purdy QB32 pre-season, I assume anything he posts about him comes with a "see?!"
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Dec 14, 2023 13:58
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Not to mention it’s Pat Mahomes who leads the NFL in benefiting from YAC this year. I can’t believe what an amazing offense The Chiefs have this year and how overrated Mahomes is, etc lazy argument etc
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Dec 14, 2023 17:17
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Whoever said Purdy isn't getting credit because he's a 7th round pick is correct. If he was taken in the top 10 and putting up these numbers it would be an entirely different conversation.
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Dec 14, 2023 17:19
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wandler20 posted:Whoever said Purdy isn't getting credit because he's a 7th round pick is correct. If he was taken in the top 10 and putting up these numbers it would be an entirely different conversation. I'm giving Purdy exactly the same amount of credit I gave noted top 3 overall pick Matt Ryan and that motherfucker didn't deserve MVP in 2016 either
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Dec 14, 2023 20:29
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I love that we have Mr. Irrelevant playing as a top QB in the league. I just also have eyes. Makes it hard to square the idea that Purdy is actually playing better than Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, etc.
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Dec 14, 2023 21:52
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I think Herbert hit his ceiling if not regressed this year. He wasn't that great last year either. Good, but I'd say he's clinging to the top 10 at this point.
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Dec 14, 2023 22:14
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wandler20 posted:I think Herbert hit his ceiling if not regressed this year. He wasn't that great last year either. Good, but I'd say he's clinging to the top 10 at this point. Herbie cannot fail, he can only be failed. (I used to say that pretty unironically, but these days… my faith is wavering)
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Dec 14, 2023 22:24
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I mean. Allen is past the point of no return for a wr age wise. Their good young WR got lost for the year. Their first round pick couldn't catch a cold and ekeler has lost his pace. Oh and his backfield mate kinda fuckin sucks too. Yeah sure good QBs elevate but the stable they had on paper didn't exactly pan out this year.
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Dec 14, 2023 22:41
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I don't know if it's draft status specifically but there is this range between "undeniable poo poo" and "40 TDs + Super Bowl MVP" where it's hard for QBs to shake first impressions. Like Ryan's 2016 and Staffords 2021 get treated really differently and I think a lot of it is because they spent their careers before that as the poster children for high-floor low-ceiling fringe Pro Bowlers and mega talent wasted by garbage franchise, respectively (also actually winning the Super Bowl helps). And I'm not even saying those assessments are wrong, necessarily, just that those kind of things tend to stick. I don't think it's just draft position, though. Like if for some reason Kyle found himself fixing Bryce Young, it would immediately be regarded as the peak of Shanahan black magic, not so much if he took the helm for a Trevor Lawrence MVP.
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Dec 14, 2023 23:00
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I just like it when positions other than QB get the MVP award so I root for that to happen, its novel!
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Dec 14, 2023 23:02
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Dutchy posted:I don't know if it's draft status specifically but there is this range between "undeniable poo poo" and "40 TDs + Super Bowl MVP" where it's hard for QBs to shake first impressions. Like Ryan's 2016 and Staffords 2021 get treated really differently and I think a lot of it is because they spent their careers before that as the poster children for high-floor low-ceiling fringe Pro Bowlers and mega talent wasted by garbage franchise, respectively (also actually winning the Super Bowl helps). And I'm not even saying those assessments are wrong, necessarily, just that those kind of things tend to stick. the difference there is that lawrence has showed he's an acceptable nfl qb, so elevating him to great would be seen as unlocking him. if young has a decent year next year and then settles in as like qb 10-20 then the narrative on him will shift too. people like to pretend they aren't influenced by it but like 90% of posters' opinions are just the standard narratives from halftime shows and talking heads
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Dec 14, 2023 23:04
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Yeah, I wasn't saying people would be wrong about that, just that first impressions are more important for this stuff than draft pedigree I think.
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Dec 14, 2023 23:11
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i don't have a clue how somebody could genuinely protest matt ryan's mvp year besides hearing the name matt ryan and being a little weirdo about it. the one guy with an actual stronger case didn't make the playoffs and no major sports league is even going to consider that baseball don't count. baseball is loving weird poo poo that should never be considered a sport because i'm weird Cavauro fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Dec 14, 2023 |
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Dec 14, 2023 23:28
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I think it's a combination of draft status - "I didn't evaluate this guy as a good QB coming out of college, and I'm never wrong exclamation point exclamation point" - and a lot of people who really hate the idea of the 49ers getting an potentially exceptional QB again.
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Dec 14, 2023 23:34
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DeimosRising posted:the difference there is that lawrence has showed he's an acceptable nfl qb, so elevating him to great would be seen as unlocking him. if young has a decent year next year and then settles in as like qb 10-20 then the narrative on him will shift too. people like to pretend they aren't influenced by it but like 90% of posters' opinions are just the standard narratives from halftime shows and talking heads That's not true. Some of us respect Cavauro's opinion.
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Dec 14, 2023 23:36
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Dutchy posted:Yeah, I wasn't saying people would be wrong about that, just that first impressions are more important for this stuff than draft pedigree I think. I agree but I think it’s hard to separate the two in a lot of cases. A lot of people believe Lawrence is going to be the guy he was projected as just because he was projected as that guy, and when he makes a great play (which he does a couple times every game) it’s very easy to interpret that as who he is, and when he makes a terrible play (which he does a couple times every game) it’s easy to write that off as a fluke. Even though he’s never had a sustained run of more than a few games playing up to his reputation. Similarly even though Purdy was good right out of the gate and has never had a bad stretch of more than a couple games, he wasn’t supposed to be anyone so when he makes a great play (several times, every game) that’s a fluke, and when he makes a bad play (very rarely, sometimes not even every game) it’s proof he’s about to become the guy he was supposed to be. Confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance are powerful little bastards
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Dec 14, 2023 23:58
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Nervous posted:That's not true. Some of us respect Cavauro's opinion. Like me
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Dec 14, 2023 23:58
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If Purdy was a 1st round or 1st OVA pick he'd be the unquestionable MVP today. Likewise if Young was a 2nd round or later pick he'd be an unquestionable bust today.
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Dec 14, 2023 23:59
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Master Stur posted:If Purdy was a 1st round or 1st OVA pick he'd be the unquestionable MVP today. Likewise if Young was a 2nd round or later pick he'd be an unquestionable bust today. If Purdy had a more handsome or older looking face, or was slightly taller but absolutely nothing else changed about his game or results, he would be taken much more seriously as a candidate
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Dec 15, 2023 01:15
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DeimosRising posted:If Purdy had a more handsome or older looking face, or was slightly taller but absolutely nothing else changed about his game or results, he would be taken much more seriously as a candidate The odds have him as either a slight favorite or a slight underdog to Dak, who is also having a really good season, so I think he’s being taken seriously.
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Dec 15, 2023 01:22
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DeimosRising posted:If Purdy had a more handsome or older looking face, or was slightly taller but absolutely nothing else changed about his game or results, he would be taken much more seriously as a candidate We all live in the shadow of Handsome James (who just Wins)
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Dec 15, 2023 01:36
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I think there's a lot of things you could have as a young QB that would make people believe in you. Yeah obviously if you're a high draft pick that everyone says is good. But if you had visible elite traits(huge arm, size, can run fast) but somehow got drafted late, people might credit the coach with unlocking you but wouldn't be so skeptical that you yourself are good. Joe Milton making the pro bowl next year would be like this. Or if you just had an amazing college career/stats, maybe from a small school or FCS. Purdy just has nothing to latch onto and it'll take a while for people just buy into a guy suddenly being an NFL superstar purely off of making good/quick decisions Also I prefer it when cool athletic QBs are the best so will be rooting for Purdy to pumpkin it up down the stretch/in the playoffs
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Dec 15, 2023 02:09
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Mike N Eich posted:I just like it when positions other than QB get the MVP award so I root for that to happen, its novel! Either Grossi or Perna shared a take they'd heard elsewhere: after all the bullshit running backs have dealt with in terms of receiving fair compensation during their most productive years, it would be awesome for CMC to win the MVP this year.
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Dec 15, 2023 03:20
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kalensc posted:Either Grossi or Perna shared a take they'd heard elsewhere: after all the bullshit running backs have dealt with in terms of receiving fair compensation during their most productive years, it would be awesome for CMC to win the MVP this year. That's who I'd vote for right now.
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Dec 15, 2023 03:57
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DeimosRising posted:If Purdy had a more handsome or older looking face, or was slightly taller but absolutely nothing else changed about his game or results, he would be taken much more seriously as a candidate I cant disagree with this
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Dec 15, 2023 04:48
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DeimosRising posted:If Purdy had a more handsome or older looking face, or was slightly taller but absolutely nothing else changed about his game or results, he would be taken much more seriously as a candidate Thought experiment: Jimmy G stays in SF and has Purdy’s exact season, play-for-play. MVP? Ownership in team? Immediately declared President of the United States?
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Dec 15, 2023 07:48
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Coldforge posted:Not to mention it’s Pat Mahomes who leads the NFL in benefiting from YAC this year. I can’t believe what an amazing offense The Chiefs have this year and how overrated Mahomes is, etc lazy argument etc Mahomes is 2nd in attempts and Purdy is 24th.
Purdy benefits from YAC more than any QB in the league and it’s not close. Purdy is a good QB but his excellent production is because he’s on a stacked roster with the best offensive coach in the league. He should not be MVP.
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Dec 15, 2023 08:49
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Purdy benefits from YAC more than any QB in the league and it’s not close. I believe your chosen statistic is largely meaningless, and your conclusion is incorrect. The 49ers’ offense benefits more from YAC than other teams offenses do, but that doesn’t reflect negatively on Purdy, because Purdy is also 2nd in Air Yards per completion. This is why his percentage of YAC isn’t outrageously high. He’s not just drinking and dunking, he’s making tough throws to get the ball to that stacked roster in position to get all those yards after the catch. The offensive scheme and targets help provide a lot of YAC. Brock Purdy is making good, challenging throws with excellent placement to get the ball to those targets. Both of these things are true, and the one does not detract from the other.
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Dec 15, 2023 10:24
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It's kinda just a matter of how you're defining "benefit", if it's guy who gets the most YAC total (or in this case, per completion) it's Purdy, if it's guy who's yardage is most proportionally YAC it's Mahomes. There are a bunch of things you can say about both of those but mostly I think it's funny that this season's YAC kings are guy with crazy weapons and guy with just about the shittiest WR corps you could possibly imagine. The advanced stats age is so good, the context and meaning of things is always so unclear you just wind up doubling back to the eye test.
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Dec 15, 2023 12:53
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I do think people underrate how much of the Mahomes/Chiefs offense is bolstered by short passes and screens. it's just something good offensive coaches know how to take advantage of and keeps an offense on schedule.
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Dec 15, 2023 15:31
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DeimosRising posted:If Purdy had a more handsome or older looking face, or was slightly taller but absolutely nothing else changed about his game or results, he would be taken much more seriously as a candidate this is my theory on why herbert is so overrated
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Dec 15, 2023 16:29
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Coldforge posted:I believe your chosen statistic is largely meaningless, and your conclusion is incorrect. The 49ers’ offense benefits more from YAC than other teams offenses do, but that doesn’t reflect negatively on Purdy, because Purdy is also 2nd in Air Yards per completion. This is why his percentage of YAC isn’t outrageously high. He’s not just drinking and dunking, he’s making tough throws to get the ball to that stacked roster in position to get all those yards after the catch. Purdy is 2nd in Air Yards / Completion but he’s 11th in Intended Air Yards / Completion. The stats suggest he is generally taking shorter passes but on occasion takes advantage of when play design and talent provide huge air-yard down-the-field openings. Purdy is also middle of the road on advanced accuracy stats (like bad throw %), which is further evidence that the deep throws are just… a normal qb in an extraordinary situation. Again that’s not saying Purdy is bad, but it’s further evidence that he’s not an MVP player making incredible plays. He’s just working the machine that Shanahan built. Purdy’s receivers/tight ends are also hilariously better at catching than other teams. Purdy/SF leads the league in lowest drop rate at an unbelievable 2.0%. 2nd place is 3.5%. League median is around 4.7%. The gap between first place (Purdy) and second place is bigger than the gap between second and twenty-first. He’s a fine QB but he ain’t an MVP caliber QB.
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Dec 15, 2023 17:15
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Purdy’s receivers/tight ends are also hilariously better at catching than other teams. Purdy/SF leads the league in lowest drop rate at an unbelievable 2.0%. 2nd place is 3.5%. League median is around 4.7%. The gap between first place (Purdy) and second place is bigger than the gap between second and twenty-first. Yeah it's pretty impressive, he throws such a perfect spiral and drops passes straight into his receiver's bread basket, it's practically impossible to drop E: seriously though, drop rate is such a stupid thing to hold against him. Niners are #4 in drops in the first half of last season with the same scheme and basically same receivers. Deebo in that period had a drop rate of 11%! The quality of the throws makes a difference in how catchable they are https://x.com/reinhardNFL/status/1590726573539352576?s=20 Papercut fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Dec 15, 2023 |
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Dec 15, 2023 17:31
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