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feller
Jul 5, 2006


He throws the ball to his receivers, not to random spots on the field.

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YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Black Lighter posted:

How much of that is pure scheme, though? Like, Purdy throwing it to a designated spot because the play is drawn up for the specific purpose of putting that receiver in position to get instant YAC?

It is a scheme thing but there’s still a lot to be said for a QB who can get the ball out at the right time to the exact right spot on the field for his receiver to catch it in stride. There’s surely also options on routes so Brock has to quickly read leverage to determine which route option the WR is going to take and then throw to the right spot all with tight timing. It’s a different skill set than say Josh Allen winning with absurd arm talent but it’s still a top tier skill set to have. I guess the big thing is the receivers need to super precise for it to work out so well. The 49ers offense is just absurdly well coached.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

Black Lighter posted:

How much of that is pure scheme, though? Like, Purdy throwing it to a designated spot because the play is drawn up for the specific purpose of putting that receiver in position to get instant YAC?

Every scheme is asking for their QB to throw to a spot, or at least would like to if their QB can do it.

Like every coach would love a QB who can make this throw
https://youtu.be/he0gJQp4Rm8?si=cV3zXzaOIIBEakfb

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Black Lighter posted:

How much of that is pure scheme, though? Like, Purdy throwing it to a designated spot because the play is drawn up for the specific purpose of putting that receiver in position to get instant YAC?

He still has to read which receiver to send it to and get the ball there. With very large, angry men coming towards him. Another point for Brock is he can get it to anyone on the team. You don't do that without being able to put the ball precisely where it needs to go.

With years of Jimmy G and the general trash heap of bottom tier QBs this year, it's pretty obvious that doing that is hard.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Mustached Demon posted:

With very large, angry men coming towards him.

And Brock has to do it with the 49ers' offensive line, not the Cowboys' (which is strangely never mentioned when talking about supporting players).

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!

Coldforge posted:

And Brock has to do it with the 49ers' offensive line, not the Cowboys' (which is strangely never mentioned when talking about supporting players).

I mean based on the offense's performance this year its real MVP may be Trent Williams

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
Shanahan's great but sometimes people act like he invented the crossing route. It's not like some college one-read thing, Purdy has responsibilities to see things pre- and post-snap and make good throws and decisions, he has to be good at things that bad QBs are bad at. The offense would still probably be good with a bad QB and if you think that just means there's a cap on how much value he can be providing that's fine, but he is actually doing things to make it work as well as it does.

I think part of the thing is there's like three camps:

1. Purdy MVP #1 baby
2. Purdy's pretty good but inflated by environment/has less relative importance and therefore not MVP
3. Purdy is ten spots behind Kyler Murray

and 2/3 get conflated but they're very different things.

mllaneza
Apr 28, 2007

Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952




Here's a good breakdown of the throws Purdy is making and the case for MVP.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHs3_T4CVLY

DancingMachine
Aug 12, 2004

He's a dancing machine!
I found this case against pretty compelling, although it does rest a little too much on "Seahawks defense is really bad" for the specific examples he pulled.
One amazing stat I learned from this is that even if you counted only throws behind the line of scrimmage, Purdy would still lead the league in yards per attempt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_0yD5ZwWa8

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

DancingMachine posted:

I found this case against pretty compelling, although it does rest a little too much on "Seahawks defense is really bad" for the specific examples he pulled.
One amazing stat I learned from this is that even if you counted only throws behind the line of scrimmage, Purdy would still lead the league in yards per attempt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_0yD5ZwWa8

My problem with this sort of rebuttal is that it seems to ignore that making those reads and executing the throws *is* a huge part of the challenge of playing QB. Like if you watch JT O'Sullivan's breakdown of Jalen Hurts in the SF game, he had a half dozen to dozen wide open plays like this sitting there for him, and either wouldn't or couldn't make them. Purdy being able to read pre- and post-snap defenses and make these throws is itself incredibly valuable.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Papercut posted:

My problem with this sort of rebuttal is that it seems to ignore that making those reads and executing the throws *is* a huge part of the challenge of playing QB. Like if you watch JT O'Sullivan's breakdown of Jalen Hurts in the SF game, he had a half dozen to dozen wide open plays like this sitting there for him, and either wouldn't or couldn't make them. Purdy being able to read pre- and post-snap defenses and make these throws is itself incredibly valuable.

Yea, it’s valuable, but if you want to argue that he’s the MvP you’ve got to show that Purdy is doing a meaningfully better job than other top QBs of identifying those defensive mistakes and capitalizing and that it’s not just a function of the 49ers scheme itself creating so much havoc in defenses that there’s often an easy completion for big yardage.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Yea, it’s valuable, but if you want to argue that he’s the MvP you’ve got to show that Purdy is doing a meaningfully better job than other top QBs of identifying those defensive mistakes and capitalizing and that it’s not just a function of the 49ers scheme itself creating so much havoc in defenses that there’s often an easy completion for big yardage.

I don't think you do because that standard has just been invented this year as a way to discredit what he's doing. The typical MVP standard is "scoreboard."

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

DancingMachine posted:

I found this case against pretty compelling, although it does rest a little too much on "Seahawks defense is really bad" for the specific examples he pulled.
One amazing stat I learned from this is that even if you counted only throws behind the line of scrimmage, Purdy would still lead the league in yards per attempt.

Wait Ben Solak? Are you seriously recommending this, or am I missing the joke?

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here
Brock Purdy, playing the most important position, is playing better than any other guy playing that position. He's doing his job better than any of the other dudes. He is taking the instructions given to them and executing them extremely well. He is not the MVP.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Coldforge posted:

Wait Ben Solak? Are you seriously recommending this, or am I missing the joke?

He’s one of the best nfl analysts in the podcast sphere. He’s really good.

At first I thought it was standard Around the NFL analysis because his voice kind of grates on me and he and Sheil are goofy buddies. But in fact Solak is v good.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

Ornery and Hornery posted:

But in fact Solak is v good.

After watching the vid, I am convinced you are trolling.

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

He’s one of the best nfl analysts in the podcast sphere. He’s really good.

At first I thought it was standard Around the NFL analysis because his voice kind of grates on me and he and Sheil are goofy buddies. But in fact Solak is v good.

This dude.

https://twitter.com/kurt13warner/status/1700450449285927006

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.
First time long time here's my argument for why Brock Purdy shouldn't get the MVP I'm jealous of his team's well run organization and I don't like how he keeps beating the Seahawks thanks for taking my call just respond on air bye

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

Nervous posted:

First time long time here's my argument for why Brock Purdy shouldn't get the MVP I'm jealous of his team's well run organization and I don't like how he keeps beating the Seahawks thanks for taking my call just respond on air bye

I love your honesty and respect your opinion :hmmyes:

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Papercut posted:

I don't think you do because that standard has just been invented this year as a way to discredit what he's doing. The typical MVP standard is "scoreboard."

The top three MVP favorites all have the same record so it sounds like the typical MVP standard is in fact what they’re using right now, they just don’t think Brock is the best of the bunch.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

YOLOsubmarine posted:

The top three MVP favorites all have the same record so it sounds like the typical MVP standard is in fact what they’re using right now, they just don’t think Brock is the best of the bunch.

Yeah I don't have any problem with that. I have a problem with the really stupid video above.

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010
I obviously don't fully agree with a lot of anti-Purdy arguments but I do understand where they're coming from. Shanahan QB inflation, a run-heavy offense, lots of skill position talent, all that stuff is stuff to think about and I get why people would have a different conclusion than I do. And you throw in the "what do we mean by value" stuff that afflicts every MVP argument in every sport and of course there's gonna be a lot of disagreement. I like to defend Purdy's general honor as a good QB but I really don't care if other people have a preferred MVP choice (and like I've said, I'm a CMC guy.)

So I really admire this Ben Solak guy for making a video about it and his case starts with "here's a 54 yard TD to his fourth option, but in order to make this happen he had to read the defense"

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


YOLOsubmarine posted:

The top three MVP favorites all have the same record so it sounds like the typical MVP standard is in fact what they’re using right now, they just don’t think Brock is the best of the bunch.

I would probably vote for Lamar atm on the worst supporting cast criterion but no one ever does the kind of analysis you’re talking about before picking mvp, they go with some stats and gut every time

feller
Jul 5, 2006


Waltzing Along posted:

Brock Purdy, playing the most important position, is playing better than any other guy playing that position. He's doing his job better than any of the other dudes. He is taking the instructions given to them and executing them extremely well. He is not the MVP.

Agreed, but I feel even more strongly that dak should not win it.

feller fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Dec 15, 2023

trilljester
Dec 7, 2004

The People's Tight End.

feller posted:

Agreed, but I feel even more strongly that dak should not win it.

Dak's performance against the Niners vs. Purdy's performance should automatically eliminate Dak from the conversation.

MakaVillian
Aug 16, 2003

Well, in Whoville they say - that his tiny hands grew three sizes that day.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Yea, it’s valuable, but if you want to argue that he’s the MvP you’ve got to show that Purdy is doing a meaningfully better job than other top QBs of identifying those defensive mistakes and capitalizing and that it’s not just a function of the 49ers scheme itself creating so much havoc in defenses that there’s often an easy completion for big yardage.

But we've already seen a mediocre QB run this Shanahan offence for the past several years, and while it was (usually) good with Jimmy, with Purdy it's been league best. It can't JUST be Shanahan's scheme that is doing the heavy lifting this year.

Edit: I don't necessarily think Purdy will win the MVP, but he has to be a big part of the conversation

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

YOLOsubmarine posted:

The top three MVP favorites all have the same record so it sounds like the typical MVP standard is in fact what they’re using right now, they just don’t think Brock is the best of the bunch.

Dak had the benefit of watching Purdy shred his defense.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

MakaVillian posted:

But we've already seen a mediocre QB run this Shanahan offence for the past several years, and while it was (usually) good with Jimmy, with Purdy it's been league best. It can't JUST be Shanahan's scheme that is doing the heavy lifting this year.

Edit: I don't necessarily think Purdy will win the MVP, but he has to be a big part of the conversation

I don’t think Brock is mediocre. He’s good. In the video that prompted this Solak says he thinks Brock is good. The question is whether he’s the best QB in the league or a good QB who is putting up best-in-league numbers because he’s got a great coach and supporting cast.

It wouldn’t be a travesty for him to win MVP, he’s got as good an argument as any of the other realistic choices. But I don’t *really* think he’s a better or more valuable player than Mahomes or Lamar.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


I don’t think he’s better than Mahomes, the best qb of all time or second at worst, but I think he has been much more productivethis year. If you take mvp very literally it would of course just go to Mahomes until he is washed, would have gone to Lebron 15 years in a row, etc

Coldforge
Oct 29, 2002

I knew it would be bad.
I didn't know it would be so stupid.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

I don’t think Brock is mediocre. He’s good. In the video that prompted this Solak says he thinks Brock is good. The question is whether he’s the best QB in the league or a good QB who is putting up best-in-league numbers because he’s got a great coach and supporting cast.

It wouldn’t be a travesty for him to win MVP, he’s got as good an argument as any of the other realistic choices. But I don’t *really* think he’s a better or more valuable player than Mahomes or Lamar.

I mean, if you want to look at it holistically, then Purdy is unquestionably the most valuable player in the NFL right now.

A QB with the best overall stats, leading a team with the best record (including tie-breakers) in the NFC and tied with the best team in the AFC, and only costing his team $890k of cap space.

*Value through the roof*

Ornery and Hornery posted:

I vote for the smallest rb with the most yards. The pluckiest back.

I'm also good with McCaffrey getting it :hmmyes:

Coldforge fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Dec 15, 2023

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I vote for the smallest rb with the most yards. The pluckiest back.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here
They should just give him the MVP. Why? I'll tell you.

He got drafted last so he comes in for an injured JG last year and doesn't lose until he gets his arm blowed up.
He takes that as fuel and starts this year and looks even better. But then he gets concussed.
So what does he do next? He starts playing even better.

My theory is if you challenge him he will overcome the challenge and more. If you don't give him MVP, he will win the next 3.

This goes for the super bowl. Let him win. Otherwise he's just going to win 8 in a row.

DancingMachine
Aug 12, 2004

He's a dancing machine!
Re: Solak - I find his videos to be entertaining and informative. But I don't watch a ton of deep analysis football stuff so I am totally open to the possibility that he is actually bad. What are some recommendations for better but still accessible high quality breakdown analysis that isn't team-aligned?

Coldforge posted:

I mean, if you want to look at it holistically, then Purdy is unquestionably the most valuable player in the NFL right now.

A QB with the best overall stats, leading a team with the best record (including tie-breakers) in the NFC and tied with the best team in the AFC, and only costing his team $890k of cap space.

*Value through the roof*

I like this line of reasoning, but I'd still take CJ Stroud over Purdy for that metric.

The way I think about MVP is more "how much does this person contribute to the team's success compared to a replacement level player at their position". Or another way, how much would they get in free agency if the were unrestricted tomorrow (for 1 year let's say, set age side). Purdy is probably not even top 10 on this scale.

To contradict myself though, I'd be happy to CMC get the award and he isn't really top 10 there either.

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

DancingMachine posted:

Re: Solak - I find his videos to be entertaining and informative. But I don't watch a ton of deep analysis football stuff so I am totally open to the possibility that he is actually bad. What are some recommendations for better but still accessible high quality breakdown analysis that isn't team-aligned?


I don't think there is a better one than The QB School. JT O'Sullivan, former NFL backup QB breaks down a handful of QBs every week. He has insight that most talking heads don't, because he was actually in the QB rooms.

E: I am also getting the feeling that a LOT of the breakdown vids just steal breakdowns from other people. Plagiarism is rampant on youtube and when you see someone break a play down the same way you saw someone else break it down the day before, it really makes you think.

Waltzing Along fucked around with this message at 03:33 on Dec 15, 2023

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005
Chase Daniel also does QB film breakdown and is pretty good. Johnny Del Football is incredibly informative but only does Niner content.

They don't do a ton of film breakdown but I also enjoy The Oline Committee and they talk about the whole league not just specific teams.

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Well I can say one thing for sure

Easton Stick is *not* the MVP

Strong Sauce
Jul 2, 2003

You know I am not really your father.





DancingMachine posted:

Re: Solak - I find his videos to be entertaining and informative. But I don't watch a ton of deep analysis football stuff so I am totally open to the possibility that he is actually bad. What are some recommendations for better but still accessible high quality breakdown analysis that isn't team-aligned?

I like this line of reasoning, but I'd still take CJ Stroud over Purdy for that metric.

The way I think about MVP is more "how much does this person contribute to the team's success compared to a replacement level player at their position". Or another way, how much would they get in free agency if the were unrestricted tomorrow (for 1 year let's say, set age side). Purdy is probably not even top 10 on this scale.

To contradict myself though, I'd be happy to CMC get the award and he isn't really top 10 there either.
I'm not sure what you mean top 10.. If every single QB was released tomorrow and everyone had to resign contracts... I mean, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.. maybe those 3 go ahead of Purdy in desireability.. but at worst Brock Purdy would be taken #4/#5 because maybe someone prefers to get eliminated via INT in the playoffs so they'll pick Dak Prescott.

It is pretty amazing that not only is Purdy playing at a high level right now, he's still doing it in his 2nd season (albeit, first full season). Most of the time QBs who do well their first year get solved and by this time defenses know what to do to knock young QBs off their game. People have tried blitzing, disguising coverages, forcing him to just throw underneath,... nothing has bothered him. Arguably he could completely regress within a year, but what's even scarier is if he is the real deal, this isn't even him at his best.
-------

I really like Brett Kollmann, his analysis is deep but pretty entertaining parts.
The ones I enjoyed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf9rML5A1X8

older ones:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eApPD1Os4Tg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3s7SrXaDnU

Dutchy
Jul 8, 2010

shirts and skins posted:

Well I can say one thing for sure

Easton Stick is *not* the MVP

Just as I predicted, without Todd Bonzalez, Sleve McDichael, and Mike Truk to carry him, he's wilting.

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

shirts and skins posted:

Well I can say one thing for sure

Easton Stick is *not* the MVP

Yeah why would they give a hockey stick MVP?

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Papercut
Aug 24, 2005
I had never heard of this guy until today

https://twitter.com/BenjaminSolak/status/1735477285463916619

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