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Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Moot .1415926535 posted:

we could use some more loving snow here in ski town USA

i'm dreaming of a bright dry winter 🎶🎶🎶

we may be finally getting some decent rain soon here in california, maybe. but then again dry sunny winters have been pretty much the norm for the past 10-15 odd years

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TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

ark! storm! ark! storm! ark! storm!

tater_salad
Sep 15, 2007


Moot .1415926535 posted:

we could use some more loving snow here in ski town USA

same my ski hills locally are um.. green except for the parts where they made snow

Moot .1415926535
Mar 24, 2006

Yep, that's pretty much it.
we were predicted to get 1-3” today and we got 9” so that’s good, thank you Ullr

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!

Moot .1415926535 posted:

we were predicted to get 1-3” today and we got 9” so that’s good, thank you Ullr

penis!!!!

penis joke!

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
the weather apps are all completely hosed lol

I think maybe the Apple Weather app that integrated Dark Sky might still be reliable but lmao at whatever models.

it's snowed three times so far with less than 6 hours of any app predicting a greater than zero chance of it happening. Every night since Thanksgiving has been 6-10F warmer than it was projected to be 3 days out.

kliras
Mar 27, 2021
i've found the windows weather app to be surprisingly good. i think it might have been through the forecast advisor benchmark that i found out about it

How!
Oct 29, 2009

Gunshow Poophole posted:

the weather apps are all completely hosed lol

I think maybe the Apple Weather app that integrated Dark Sky might still be reliable but lmao at whatever models.

it's snowed three times so far with less than 6 hours of any app predicting a greater than zero chance of it happening. Every night since Thanksgiving has been 6-10F warmer than it was projected to be 3 days out.

Yeah last week we went from “sunny all day” at 9am to “you’re probably gonna be in a tornado” at 2:30.

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



Gunshow Poophole posted:

the weather apps are all completely hosed lol

I think maybe the Apple Weather app that integrated Dark Sky might still be reliable but lmao at whatever models.

it's snowed three times so far with less than 6 hours of any app predicting a greater than zero chance of it happening. Every night since Thanksgiving has been 6-10F warmer than it was projected to be 3 days out.

sounds like a crisis of the models

Hooplah
Jul 15, 2006


Mola Yam posted:

penis!!!!

penis joke!

monitor?

100 HOGS AGREE
Oct 13, 2007
Grimey Drawer
it better dump snow here soon cause my mom bought me a snowblower for my birthday and if I don't need to use it I will feel bad.

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
aren't they all just sourced from the same NOAA models anyway?

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
No, plenty of forecasting businesses run their own internal models. You can too if you want.

https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/models/wrf

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
neat! Thanks for the link

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002

what this about a tropical storm in florida this weekend

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

a coin flip for a super el niño says NOAA



https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-12-14-super-el-nino-chances-december-noaa-update

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

Scarabrae posted:

what this about a tropical storm in florida this weekend

From the other weather thread:

FlamingLiberal posted:

Yeah we are going to get hit with a non-tropical storm or something of that nature on Saturday

Personally, I don’t know what a “non-tropical” storm would be. Isn’t that just a “storm”? Either way, it’s been hella windy the past couple of days and we’re supposed to get a bunch of rain tomorrow into Sunday.

I am a bit disappointed in the meteo goons here for not sharing cool radar imagery or projections of this. :colbert:

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Oh Christ, it's just starting? I thought we were like almost done with it. It's gonna get hotter?

DoombatINC
Apr 20, 2003

Here's the thing, I'm a feminist.






awkwardly trying to compliment the powerful son of a spanish speaking family like

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021
el nino... grande?

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


PostNouveau posted:

Oh Christ, it's just starting? I thought we were like almost done with it. It's gonna get hotter?
yes. 2023 was always known to be the beginning, and that 2024 would be the proper event

enjoy

stealie72
Jan 10, 2007

SixteenShells posted:

el nino... grande?
El Nino Superior

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Grundulum posted:

From the other weather thread:

Personally, I don’t know what a “non-tropical” storm would be. Isn’t that just a “storm”? Either way, it’s been hella windy the past couple of days and we’re supposed to get a bunch of rain tomorrow into Sunday.

I am a bit disappointed in the meteo goons here for not sharing cool radar imagery or projections of this. :colbert:
It’s actually a sub-tropical storm, I misspoke

It has a lot of characteristics of a tropical storm but it has a cool core, and it exists partially along a frontal boundary

tater_salad
Sep 15, 2007


stealie72 posted:

El Nino Superior

El niño supreme, get your combo with a free COD skin today

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Grundulum posted:

I am a bit disappointed in the meteo goons here for not sharing cool radar imagery or projections of this. :colbert:

Be the change you want to see

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Sub-tropical storms imply the existence of dom-tropical storms.

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
"Super" El Nino is not a thing, though apparently "very strong" or "historical" is.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

This is also going to flip to a La Nina pretty quick next year, we can already see the cold pool forming.



redleader
Aug 18, 2005

Engage according to operational parameters

is this good news

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

really good sign that the Pacific ocean/atmosphere energy cycle is speeding up

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
It's not unusual for a La Niña to closely follow an El Nino event.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007

ty slumfrog :)

SirPablo posted:

"Super" El Nino is not a thing, though apparently "very strong" or "historical" is.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

This is also going to flip to a La Nina pretty quick next year, we can already see the cold pool forming.





I’m sorry this is the weather DISASTER thread and this sounds boring

Jizzny Princess
Aug 24, 2021

WHILE YOU WERE LEARNING TO SPELL YOUR NAME,
I WAS BEING TRAINED TO CONQUER GALAXIES
UwU
Some space weather news!

The sun let off a HUGE flare!

https://twitter.com/ryanjfrench/status/1735427788763697576?t=m_delfQreC-riV-UAs5Tpw

Incase the twitter link fails to load, here's the flare in action.

https://i.imgur.com/qQpPPsN.mp4

https://www.earth.com/news/alert-strongest-solar-event-ever-recorded-will-soon-cause-disruptions-on-earth/

quote:

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a geomagnetic storm warning on the heels of a massive solar event this morning. Region 3514, located over the far northwest area of the Sun, emitted an X2.8 flare (R3). This likely ranks as one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded.

On Dec 14 at 1702 UTC, AR 3514 produced an X2.8 flare, causing R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on portions of the sunlit side of the Earth. These blackouts may temporarily degrade or completely lose high frequency radio signals.

This flare stands as the largest of this solar cycle and the biggest since the X8.2 flare observed at GOES-15 on Sep 10, 2017. SWPC forecasters will closely monitor this sunspot region due to its potential for producing additional M-class and greater flares.
The flare, categorized as Class X, represents the highest intensity in the solar flare classification system. Solar flares are ranked from A to X, with X being the most powerful. The classes are further divided by numbers, indicating their relative strength. An X2 flare, for instance, is twice as potent as an X1.

The immediate effect of this solar flare has been temporary radio blackouts across South America, resulting in a partial or complete loss of radio signals for approximately two hours. This impact illustrates the flare’s potential to disrupt radio communications on Earth.

Scientists warn that the arrival of this solar flare’s energy could spark geomagnetic storms and lead to substantial power outages. Geomagnetic storms, caused by interactions between solar emissions and the Earth’s magnetic field, can have far-reaching effects on power grids, satellite operations, and various forms of communication.

In summary, the occurrence of this Class X2.8 solar flare serves as a reminder of our Sun’s immense power and the potential impact of solar activity on our technologically dependent society. As scientists continue to monitor the Sun’s activity, this event underscores the importance of preparedness for space weather events and the need for ongoing research in solar physics.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
got a surge protector so I should be safe

GWBBQ
Jan 2, 2005


i've disconnected my telegraph battery.

but seriously, i don't think I've seen a flare saturate SDO's sensors like that since the last solar maximum.

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
gonna be a seasonal 60F and seasonally thunderstorming here in upstate new York on April December 18, and looks like not a single freezing degree day to be had between now and Christmas

I welcome our new Borrelia spp overlords

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002

I saw a loving butterfly yesterday just out doing its thing lol

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
I saw aurora borealis today :blessed:

(I'm sure it counts as weather)

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.
In the Delaware Valley, we're supposed to get 3 and a quarter inches of rain in the next 24 hours. That's a lot of water

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

In the Delaware Valley, we're supposed to get 3 and a quarter inches of rain in the next 24 hours. That's a lot of water

yah, on its way up the coast to us where we are also expected to get 3 inches of rain

on top of the 2 inches we got last weekend!

before 2020 this would have been two awesome fuckin snowstorms :(

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Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.
I mean yeah that's almost three feet of snow, it would have been awful

Weather Underground claims at one point in this storm it's going to rain half an inch in an hour, how would that compare to, say, taking a shower?

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