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shazbot
Sep 20, 2004
Ah, hon, ya got arby's all over my acoustic wave machine.

TheCenturion posted:

Honestly, Jake's big move should have been 'oh, y'all voting for Austin? Cool. Imma play my idol for him, then either vote with him, or vote for Dee and force the tie and revote that way.'

Jake’s big move should have been not being from Boston

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Raxivace
Sep 9, 2014

You can take the man out of Boston but you can’t take the Boston out of the man.

Leatherhead
Jul 3, 2006

For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast,
And breathed in the face of the foe as he passed;
And the eyes of the sleepers waxed deadly and chill,
And their hearts but once heaved, and for ever grew still

The most generous take (which I'm inclined to give him based on confessionals) is that Jake knows he's hosed at Final Tribal, and is literally just trying to make ANY visible move regardless of how advantageous it may or may not be. It's not an awful hail mary, since he seems pretty well liked by the jury and everyone loves an underdog; he just has to give people a reason to vote for him.

If he'd managed to pull something off at 6, the Rebas might've actually tried to vote him out at 5 and he could have blocked the votes for another move, but obviously he's screwed because he hasn't had a single ally in the game since the Kaleb/Kelly votes.

Raxivace
Sep 9, 2014

I feel like Jake's best bet is to do something really assholish right before F5 to ensure everyone votes for him (Maybe burning shelter down or something idk) and then trying to Idol Dee or Julie out of the game. Then just going from there and hoping cards fall for him the right way.

It would still pretty much be a longshot but realistically I'm not sure there's much else he can do.

Studio
Jan 15, 2008



Raxivace posted:

I feel like Jake's best bet is to do something really assholish right before F5 to ensure everyone votes for him (Maybe burning shelter down or something idk) and then trying to Idol Dee or Julie out of the game. Then just going from there and hoping cards fall for him the right way.

It would still pretty much be a longshot but realistically I'm not sure there's much else he can do.

I mean if he's so big an rear end in a top hat he takes votes, he's still going to lose

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Leatherhead posted:

The most generous take (which I'm inclined to give him based on confessionals) is that Jake knows he's hosed at Final Tribal, and is literally just trying to make ANY visible move regardless of how advantageous it may or may not be. It's not an awful hail mary, since he seems pretty well liked by the jury and everyone loves an underdog; he just has to give people a reason to vote for him.

Didn't he basically explicitly say this in a confessional

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah Jake is clearly thinking that he needs to make big dramatic moves he can take credit for if he has any chance to win. So getting redemption on his previous plan makes sense in that regard. And to be honest it makes sense that he didn’t think Dee would go along with it and that she’s just tell Austin/Drew. He simply didn’t have all the info. But he was also going for the bonus mastermind points and whelp.

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

basically he has to figure out a way to single handedly take out dee or austin in front of the jury

Sighence
Aug 26, 2009

We're in the fairly normal final five "power two have to take out the other one, the other three need to have been shown to take out one of the power two and have both gone" scenario. It's been done but it's very rare for one of the underdogs to make it.

Studio
Jan 15, 2008



STONE COLD 64 posted:

basically he has to figure out a way to single handedly take out dee or austin in front of the jury

Introducing the newest op survivor advantage: gun

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I wonder if Dee knows Katurah's story because it's so compelling I could see it moving some people to vote for her.

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

Studio posted:

Introducing the newest op survivor advantage: gun

survive this

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Sighence posted:

We're in the fairly normal final five "power two have to take out the other one, the other three need to have been shown to take out one of the power two and have both gone" scenario. It's been done but it's very rare for one of the underdogs to make it.

I forget exactly how 43 went down, but didn't Gabler have something to do with taking out Jesse and Karla?

Leatherhead
Jul 3, 2006

For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast,
And breathed in the face of the foe as he passed;
And the eyes of the sleepers waxed deadly and chill,
And their hearts but once heaved, and for ever grew still

IcePhoenix posted:

Didn't he basically explicitly say this in a confessional

I don't think he said 'and I don't even care if it's actually a good move', but I think it's pretty much implied.

mp5
Jan 1, 2005

Stroke of luck!

I think a pretty good use for Jake's new idol at this point is to actually do nothing with it and show it to the jury at the end, because there's not a whole lot else he can do with one flashy move to actually build any credit.

Doing Nothing would have been a much better use of Austin's amulet, also. The way it actually went down, Austin was shown to be out of the loop and whiffed an idol, which is a bad, bad look this late in the game.

As it is now, I see Julie being voted out at 5, Katurah losing in fire (thanks to subtitled foreshadowing from a couple of episodes ago) and Dee winning handily against Austin and Jake. If Katurah gets to FTC she could win, but I just don't see it happening.

Might even be yet another 7-1-0 vote with Drew voting for Austin and everyone else going Dee, which would be the most New Era poo poo ever.

Khanstant
Apr 5, 2007
Playing it on himself made it kind of awkward after first presenting it with "heh, I don't even need this souvenir" which I thought meant he was just giving it straight up without using it. I think Jeff asking or assuming he meant to play it on himself made him pause and hesitate and confirm to play it on himself.

It was a whiff either using it on himself or nobody, but the latter would've at least been a first, I think? Plenty of idols gone unused, but I do not recall anyone just throwing one away b/c last chance and believing no use for it as they are so confident the game will be going their way.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

mp5 posted:

Doing Nothing would have been a much better use of Austin's amulet, also. The way it actually went down, Austin was shown to be out of the loop and whiffed an idol, which is a bad, bad look this late in the game.

Especially when every vote went against his closest ally except for his and his ally.


mp5 posted:

If Katurah gets to FTC she could win, but I just don't see it happening.

I just really want her to make FTC so one of us can be hilariously wrong instead of having a what if about it.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Reminder that both Katurah and Austin have had 0 votes cast against them, so there might be a chance we get our second coming of Sugar (never had their name written down).

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I remember when I got on an old Survivor kick last year that Africa was one I just couldn't find, but I guess whatever weird rights slice now has it on Hulu, just watched episode 1.

Man this comes out hot with the racism.

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

I think Dee has it, she will reveal at the ftc that she was behind the Julie save and that will shock everyone

Leatherhead
Jul 3, 2006

For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast,
And breathed in the face of the foe as he passed;
And the eyes of the sleepers waxed deadly and chill,
And their hearts but once heaved, and for ever grew still

Rick posted:

I remember when I got on an old Survivor kick last year that Africa was one I just couldn't find, but I guess whatever weird rights slice now has it on Hulu, just watched episode 1.

Man this comes out hot with the racism.

The way Clarence is treated by the 'heroes' of the season is one of the most uncomfortable things about early survivor. When you lump Frank's whole thing on top of that, it's not far behind Thailand in terms of gross 2000s-ness.
On the other hand, RHAP tracked Clarence down for an amazing interview a couple years ago, and it's the only time I can remember them having to give a content warning before an interview:
https://robhasawebsite.com/survivor-clarence-black-interview-africa/
The very first thing he does is start swearing and call T-Bird 'Miss Daisy'.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

Murmur Twin posted:

I can't shake the feeling the Gabler is going to win this season. He's had a few confessionals about how he's there, playing a great game, and no one is noticing it / he's hiding in plain sight. My guess is Jesse / Owen / Gabler f3 with a bitter jury locking out Jesse and ignoring Owen.

IcePhoenix posted:

I just really want her to make FTC so one of us can be hilariously wrong instead of having a what if about it.

Katurah is my winner pick, I'm getting huge Gabler vibes from her. In both cases, they were portrayed as fodder for the first half of the season but had confessionals that made me stop and say "you know, if they do win, then retroactively I can understand what story they were telling us". I think Dee is this season's Jesse from 43.

Katurah was such a comical one-note while Bruce existed in the game that I think they primed people to think she couldn't win. But once Bruce left, we got a confessional about how she's done lying low, we got her personal backstory, and we see her explaining her strategy more - I think that was done very intentionally to make people dismiss Katurah so they'd be surprised if/when she wins.

mp5
Jan 1, 2005

Stroke of luck!

I can see it, but I can't forget that Probst had to basically come out and apologize for how Gabler was portrayed on 43 because he wasn't sold as the winner at all and people were confused.

We know Jeff's kind of a knucklehead but I can't see him letting the editors make that mistake again so soon after 43 if Katurah's the winner.

But then again they also did Mat Chat for like 12 seasons as a reliable winner prediction so

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

The most important difference between Katurah and Gabler is that I never had him in the bottom tier and he was in a t2 grouping before the final episode with the only t1 being someone who would have obviously won but didn't make it to FTC (Jesse) :colbert:

So I guess what I'm saying is I don't feel the same vibes. I'd actually be super disappointed with her as a winner at this point because she hasn't done anything.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

IcePhoenix posted:

So I guess what I'm saying is I don't feel the same vibes. I'd actually be super disappointed with her as a winner at this point because she hasn't done anything.

She couldn’t do anything pre-merge though because she never went to tribal - but they still gave her an episodes-long subplot about Bruce being her biggest obstacle.

(I think? I’m going off memory admittedly)

And then also she made a move in the Kaleb vote - she found out her old alliance left her out of information (Bruce’s idol) and changed things up accordingly.

I dunno, I’m wrong all the time - it’s more of a hunch than anything else.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I guess when I say she hasn't done anything I mean she hasn't come up with any successful plans. Nor has she found an idol, or won a challenge. I don't think she's had any advantages? maybe earlier in the season. She's just sort of been there as a number the whole time. Flipping on someone who wants to work with you to become the clear bottom of a different alliance doesn't really do anything for me.

It's possible that there's more to it behind the scenes but I can only go with what they show me on TV.

e: I looked it up, her only rewards were when someone else picked her (or it was a team reward), she had one journey and lost her vote failing the challenge

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Dec 17, 2023

Invalid Validation
Jan 13, 2008




I don’t know why she was so laser focused on Bruce. I’m sure everyone is loving annoying when you can’t make any friends.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I used to think all those people who used to throw a pre-merge challenge in a dominant tribe were insane but it seems not going to tribal at all definitely is not a good thing either so maybe I am wrong there.

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

cant get voted out if u dont go to tribal.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Invalid Validation posted:

I don’t know why she was so laser focused on Bruce. I’m sure everyone is loving annoying when you can’t make any friends.

In fairness to her everyone was obsessed with Bruce. Maybe not as much or as long as her but everyone got all weird about him. So clearly there was something he was doing and/or something going through the group. Katurah might have started it. But she wasn’t alone by the end.

But yeah I don’t see the argument for her win at all besides edit reading “that’s what they want you to think” stuff. Stranger things have happened but I’d certainly be surprised if she ended up winning unless she has a huge end game.

Studio
Jan 15, 2008



No idea where to put this so it's landing here. Lmao

https://twitter.com/danjeanken/status/1736127939832410583

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I'm no Adam Klein but I don't think that was a good audition tape.

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

Does this look like the face of mercy, kupo?

Studio posted:

No idea where to put this so it's landing here. Lmao

https://twitter.com/danjeanken/status/1736127939832410583

god, of course he did

SteveVizsla
Mar 19, 2009

Why do I always want to sock it to you so hard?

Invalid Validation posted:

I don’t know why she was so laser focused on Bruce. I’m sure everyone is loving annoying when you can’t make any friends.

Keep in mind they probably kept asking her question after question about how she felt about Bruce, and then chose those confessionals to air vs her talking about other things. People clearly like her, saying she can't make friends is a giant leap; she just doesn't really have an alliance.

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

curiousCat posted:

god, of course he did

You probably voted him out at some point

Nihonniboku
Aug 11, 2004

YOU CAN FLY!!!

Studio posted:

No idea where to put this so it's landing here. Lmao

https://twitter.com/danjeanken/status/1736127939832410583

I go to a gay trivia in DC every week. The team names are most assuredly going to be 90% about that story. It was wild following twitter this weekend.

Exodor
Oct 1, 2004

STAC Goat posted:

In fairness to her everyone was obsessed with Bruce. Maybe not as much or as long as her but everyone got all weird about him. So clearly there was something he was doing and/or something going through the group. Katurah might have started it. But she wasn’t alone by the end.

I totally get it - Bruce was annoying as poo poo just watching from the couch. I can't imagine being stuck on an island 24/7 with him.

mp5
Jan 1, 2005

Stroke of luck!

The 44 pre-jurors all had nothing but caps-locked praise for Bruce, so, land of contrasts I guess

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

mp5 posted:

The 44 pre-jurors all had nothing but caps-locked praise for Bruce, so, land of contrasts I guess

They also only played with him for like 6 hours

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blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Nobody is going to poo poo talk the guy who gets injured on the first day and has to leave. Even if you hate him, that’s punishment enough without rubbing salt in the wound

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