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To be fair to Americans, crime did go up a lot in 2020 and part of 2021. It has been going down for the last two years, but people could still be remembering the huge surge and saying that they feel like crime is still up. Similar to inflation, where people don't really feel the actual rate of inflation and just feel like prices are higher than they were 3 years ago, so they feel like inflation has gone up the last year. To be unfair to Americans, they have (collectively) thought crime was going up every single year for the last 40 years despite it going down consistently for 37 of those 40 years, so this could just be a continuation of that.
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Dec 18, 2023 21:50
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Zotix posted:Executive order the poo poo out of everything for the next 11 months. Who cares if it's legal or not and gets tied up in the courts. Trump did it, and it looks like you are trying poo poo. This sounds like the worst possible advice. I'd rather not have SCOTUS ruling on a shitload of cases that get inevitably challenged. And for the few that might slide by, it'll be easy for the next Republican president to get rid of the rest of them. On top of that, pointing to Trump doing it is a terrible example. Assuming you're saying it would be a good thing for electoral reasons, it didn't even seem to help him out enough in 2020.
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Dec 18, 2023 21:52
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Zwabu posted:I wonder this myself. I understand people being unhappy and not feeling like Biden is the greatest. Part of it is that partisan views of the other party (in both parties) are getting more and more solidified. Biden has a less than 5% approval rate among Republicans and Trump is around 9% with Democrats. You can't get above ~55% approval with nearly 0% approval among the other party/leaners. Inflation also hits everyone in a very public way (and we haven't seen rapid inflation in nearly 40 years, so it feels like a shock) and spreads the pain out a little among everyone. Whereas 10% unemployment tends to crush 10% of the population and have a minimal impact on the other 90%.
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Dec 18, 2023 21:54
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Trump did not actually "executive order the poo poo out of everything." Where are people getting these ideas?
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Dec 18, 2023 21:54
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I'm betting a lot of the perrcieved increase in crime for the last 40 years is white people seeing non-white people in parts of town they hadn't seen them before and immediately thinking they were up to no good.
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Dec 18, 2023 21:54
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Ralepozozaxe posted:I'm betting a lot of the perrcieved increase in crime for the last 40 years is white people seeing non-white people in parts of town they hadn't seen them before and immediately thinking they were up to no good. yeah probably, but also alot of it is news networks just running the same footage of the "gang robs target" or gang robs etc over and over while talking about flash mob stuff even though i dont think any big ones have happened.
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Dec 18, 2023 21:56
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Discendo Vox posted:Trump did not actually "executive order the poo poo out of everything." Where are people getting these ideas? I'm guessing stuff like the muslim ban, it felt like big sweeping things were changing really fast and instantly, which is a hard feeling to shake
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Dec 18, 2023 21:57
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Biden's numbers are also taking a nosedive among Democrats:Pew posted:Biden’s job approval rating remains low. 61% approval in your own party is very bad result.
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Dec 18, 2023 21:58
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B B posted:Biden's numbers are also taking a nosedive among Democrats: Yeah. That's where the big damage from inflation comes from. When it is something that is spread out amongst everyone, then everyone feels it. Even though 10% unemployment is objectively much worse, it doesn't "feel" directly as bad to the other 90%. It's the general sense of malaise hitting everyone that tanks approval.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:01
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Zotix posted:Executive order the poo poo out of everything for the next 11 months. Who cares if it's legal or not and gets tied up in the courts. Trump did it, and it looks like you are trying poo poo. I mean it really doesn't. Just look at what happened with student loans - how many people are giving him credit for cancelling $10-20k worth of their loans when it immediately got blocked by the courts?
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Dec 18, 2023 22:02
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Zwabu posted:I wonder this myself. I understand people being unhappy and not feeling like Biden is the greatest. I think a lot of the people voicing disapproval will still vote for him, given the alternative is Trump. Once the General campaign kicks off, his numbers will go up. I think the RNC is where his poll numbers start shooting up quickly.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:03
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Yeah. That's where the big damage from inflation comes from. Dems have a negative view on Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war too, which is probably driving the recent downward trend. Young democrats especially, where 46% of those under 30 disapprove, and only 19% approve. He has low marks overall on the war, but a lot of that is driven by Republicans who would probably say they have a negative view of anything Biden did. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/08/biden-israel-hamas-response-poll-00130832 quote:Only about a third of Americans polled approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, according to a Pew Research Center survey published Friday. Dems really have to hope that Trump will drive Dem voters back to the polls because man I have to think enthusiasm is going to be very low for Biden in November.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:12
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Zapp Brannigan posted:I think a lot of the people voicing disapproval will still vote for him, given the alternative is Trump. Once the General campaign kicks off, his numbers will go up. I think the RNC is where his poll numbers start shooting up quickly. https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1736853415467384926 i feel like there is also a big helping of this. most people dont follow politics and dont realize its just gonna be 2020 again. probably
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Dec 18, 2023 22:12
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Byzantine posted:Neither of those are left wing points, and I do wish people would stop trying to elide everything left of Kissenger into a monolith to make stupid points like "well commie, your left wing buddy Nancy said this so you must agree!". To be specific it's a common refrain among self-identified leftists who criticize mainstream Democratic policies from the left, both to argue that it's dumb to treat high taxes and cracking down on the rich as eliminating the rich because you can take most of a billionaire's money without affecting their standard of life, and to argue that that Democrats can't bank on Republicans just going away or people just stopping backing them. Which are both reasonable stances, so it's weird seeing many of the same freak the gently caress out when a mainstream Democrat concurs. I suppose you could argue that those arguments are like democratic socialists making strawmen of what mainstream Democrats do or believe or that many of the people saying it are less leftists than contrarians who adopt leftist thetoric to own the libs, but "left wing" is always a nebulous term.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:13
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1736853415467384926 Yeah there’s a very good reason that polls more than like 200 days out have basically no predictive power.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:15
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:Yeah there’s a very good reason that polls more than like 200 days out have basically no predictive power. like again. I think biden and co need to actually fix stuff and repare damage to his base. but i think some of that repares itself if the economy feels better for people AND the primaries end.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:17
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1736853415467384926 Not even people that don't follow politics, I've been trapped in a Groundhog Day for three years having this conversation every day with people holding county officer positions in the democratic party who still don't believe the only thing that can stop Trump from being the nominee is death, maybe. They're not gonna vote for another nominee, they think he's still the president now!
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Dec 18, 2023 22:19
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1736853415467384926 I have a $100 bet with my mom that Joe Biden will be the nominee barring illness or death. For whatever reason she is dead certain that Newsom will actually run, and I could not convince her it'll never happen without making the bet. Couldn't tell you what news outlet she listens to that gave her that impression.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:20
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https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1736807685822230960 Fetterman digs himself deeper. Replies are predictably several quotes and instances of himself crowing about starting a progressive movement in the state, saying progressives will at last be heard when he's elected, and so on. Has there ever been a case of a politician flipping the other way around? Being moderate or center-right then swinging wide leftward?
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Dec 18, 2023 22:20
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Sephyr posted:Has there ever been a case of a politician flipping the other way around? Being moderate or center-right then swinging wide leftward? Biden 
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Dec 18, 2023 22:31
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Sephyr posted:https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1736807685822230960 I'm confused, how is this digging "himself deeper"? And how is this even a story? quote:Asked whether he considers himself to be a progressive, Fetterman said: “No, I’m just a Democrat that has always run on what I believe in, know to be true. And six years ago, this was considered progressive. But now there isn’t a single Democrat in this race or any race that I’m aware of that’s running on anything different. So that’s not really progressive. That’s just where the party is.” E: Saw the added context from the quoted tweet, so struck out a couple of my statements
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Dec 18, 2023 22:43
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Kalit posted:This sounds like the worst possible advice. I'd rather not have SCOTUS ruling on a shitload of cases that get inevitably challenged. And for the few that might slide by, it'll be easy for the next Republican president to get rid of the rest of them. Ya well, Trump's enthusiasm is through the loving roof right now, while his legislative victories were basically just tax cuts. Meanwhile, very few people are enthusiastic about Biden right now. So hey, lets keep doing what we're doing and then be surprised Pikachu next November.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:43
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Bird in a Blender posted:Dems have a negative view on Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war too, which is probably driving the recent downward trend. Young democrats especially, where 46% of those under 30 disapprove, and only 19% approve. He has low marks overall on the war, but a lot of that is driven by Republicans who would probably say they have a negative view of anything Biden did Yeah, but Israel isn't driving the overall approval numbers. Those have been in the high-30's and low 40's for over a year. It took its first dip right after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the delta wave of covid, then started to recover, and has been mired down in that 35-45% range ever since inflation started to kick in. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Dec 18, 2023 |
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Dec 18, 2023 22:44
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Southwest Airlines has been fined $140 million for their complete failure to handle the 2022 holiday travel rush. This is by far the largest fine the Department of Transportation has ever levied against an airline for violating consumer-protection laws.quote:“Today’s action sets a new precedent and sends a clear message: If airlines fail their passengers, we will use the full extent of our authority to hold them accountable,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement. “Taking care of passengers is not just the right thing to do — it’s required, and this penalty should put all airlines on notice to take every step possible to ensure that a meltdown like this never happens again.” The airline will pay $35 million in cash to the feds and reserve $90 million for future service failure compensations. The remainder is represented by other actions it has already done or is planning to do. DOT announcement haveblue fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Dec 18, 2023 |
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Dec 18, 2023 22:48
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Zwabu posted:I wonder this myself. I understand people being unhappy and not feeling like Biden is the greatest. I mean he's only let like 500k needlessly die, but that's still not great is it?
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Dec 18, 2023 22:50
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Zotix posted:Ya well, Trump's enthusiasm is through the loving roof right now, while his legislative victories were basically just tax cuts. Meanwhile, very few people are enthusiastic about Biden right now. So hey, lets keep doing what we're doing and then be surprised Pikachu next November. Is this actually true? If we look at recent favorability polling among both Trump and Biden, the aggregate of Trump is unfavorable +11.3 and Biden is unfavorable +14.6. Obviously, some of the latest polls show Trump leading. However, it's still a year out and Kennedy is shown on a couple of having a large percentage of the vote (17% for one, 20% for the other). So while Trump seems to be in a slightly better position, based on the context, I'd say it's far from Trump's enthusiasm being through the roof relative to Biden.
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Dec 18, 2023 22:56
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Kalit posted:Is this actually true? If we look at recent favorability polling among both Trump and Biden, the aggregate of Trump is unfavorable +11.3 and Biden is unfavorable +14.6. Plus, Trump is back on the campaign trail openly quoting Hitler and revealing his terrible dictatorial plans. Which is starting to remind everyone just how lovely he is, which is all Biden needs to look like the better choice again.
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Dec 18, 2023 23:07
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shame on an IGA posted:Not even people that don't follow politics, I've been trapped in a Groundhog Day for three years having this conversation every day with people holding county officer positions in the democratic party who still don't believe the only thing that can stop Trump from being the nominee is death, maybe. yeah. i think alot of people just think the GOP isnt busted enough to choose him again. Sephyr posted:https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1736807685822230960 he has always been progressiveish on various issues(for the party) and center on other like israel(since he was LT govenor comes from the part of the state that has a very large jewish community), some gas stuff(fracking brings in a ton of money to the state through taxes and revinue). I dont think he is some sinema or manchin and he has his seat until he doesnt want it anymore basicaly.
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Dec 18, 2023 23:08
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I think Trump not being on Twitter and even friendly TV not airing his rallies directly is helping him there.
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Dec 18, 2023 23:09
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Killer robot posted:I think Trump not being on Twitter and even friendly TV not airing his rallies directly is helping him there. yeah, i think alot of it is also mainstream news outside fox isnt showing the poo poo until "they have too" until the primary starts and he wins it".
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Dec 18, 2023 23:19
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Yeah, but Israel isn't driving the overall approval numbers. Those have been in the high-30's and low 40's for over a year. I suspect (though this would be hard to prove) that the Israeli conflict/massacre is hardening some tentative "no to Biden votes". That is: While it's correct in general that you can't trust a poll this far out from the election, and you'd expect a large number of people who ultimately will vote for Biden to say that they will not (i.e. to voice displeasure at some policies they don't like or w/e), if the set of people most-inclined to voice dissatisfaction in that matter harden their position such that they won't end up voting for Biden, it wouldn't show in an obvious way in the polls. Since young people are (as far as I know) both the most likely to be otherwise displeased with Biden and the group most adamantly opposed to his his handling of the Israel situation, I believe this is at least plausible. Obviously how much this matters for the election depends on how long the conflict drags out. If Palestinian deaths continue at the current rate (or increase exponentially accelerate due to starvation/disease), and if that continues for months and months, Biden is probably doomed unless he really can find enough moderates to replace <35 Democrats. Similarly, if Biden does take a more forceful stance against indiscriminate Israeli mass-murder, and Netanyahu just ignores him, he'll look incredibly weak and probably lose moderates. If this escalates into a regional war with Iran/Yemen, or if the Israelis drag us into a conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and US troops get deployed, I suspect Biden will find it almost impossible to recover support. There seems to be a lot of optimism in this thread that the I/P situation will end quickly and that everyone will forget about it by the election. Maybe that is true, but that's not the trajectory that events are on right now, and the only major actor an immediate end to the conflict directly benefits is Biden. A long war keeps Netanyahu out of prison, increases global sympathy for the Palestinian liberation movement, and increases support for the Iranian-lead "axis of resistance" throughout the Arab world. (Obviously it would be good for Palestinian civilians for the war to end soon but they don't really have a say in any material sense). If Biden wants this to end soon enough that it's forgotten by election time, he's going to have to do a lot more than he has been doing in order to bring that state of affairs about. Given how he's been acting thus far, I don't see much reason to believe that he's capable of doing that (since it would inevitably require exerting real leverage over the Israelis), and am perplexed by the aforementioned optimism here.
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Dec 18, 2023 23:19
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When Trump wins the Iowa primary by like 40%, I expect that he will be covered as the GOP candidate
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Dec 18, 2023 23:21
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I mean it really doesn't. Just look at what happened with student loans - how many people are giving him credit for cancelling $10-20k worth of their loans when it immediately got blocked by the courts? Yeah the number of politically active people that come in here and suggest he do the thing he already did showed that peoples media consumption only really highlights outrage poo poo and pays no attention to the things that actually happen.
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Dec 18, 2023 23:41
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haveblue posted:Southwest Airlines has been fined $140 million for their complete failure to handle the 2022 holiday travel rush. This is by far the largest fine the Department of Transportation has ever levied against an airline for violating consumer-protection laws. This is pretty cool I think. My understanding is that southwest has underinvested in IT infrastructure for many years which lead to total breakdown under stress. This could be a lesson to many regulated industries that penny pinching is not as economical as it seems.
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Dec 18, 2023 23:54
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VorpalBunny posted:Plus, Trump is back on the campaign trail openly quoting Hitler and revealing his terrible dictatorial plans. Which is starting to remind everyone just how lovely he is, which is all Biden needs to look like the better choice again. Nobody can seem to agree whether media attention helps or hurts Trump. It seemed like half this forum was blaming Trump's win on the media attention he received. I think the biggest contributor is that lots of people either want the bad things or don't care enough to vote to avoid them
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Dec 19, 2023 00:04
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If Biden wants to improve his numbers, he needs to lay out a clear plan for what he wants to do with his second term. "I'm not Trump" and "the economy is already good, dumbass" are proving to not be winning messages. "Maybe we'll try something else with student loans" is a start, but just barely.
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Dec 19, 2023 00:23
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Aztec Galactus posted:If Biden wants to improve his numbers, he needs to lay out a clear plan for what he wants to do with his second term. "I'm not Trump" and "the economy is already good, dumbass" are proving to not be winning messages. "Maybe we'll try something else with student loans" is a start, but just barely. If people are willing to have the guy who banned Muslims and is essentially quoting Hitler at his campaign rallies against immigrants be elected because Biden's messaging isn't exciting enough, then it's Americans that are the problem.
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Dec 19, 2023 00:30
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Fart Amplifier posted:then it's Americans that are the problem. We kinda knew that already.
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Dec 19, 2023 00:39
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Zotix posted:Ya well, Trump's enthusiasm is through the loving roof right now, while his legislative victories were basically just tax cuts. Meanwhile, very few people are enthusiastic about Biden right now. So hey, lets keep doing what we're doing and then be surprised Pikachu next November. Trump's enthusiasm is through the roof.... with a small group of people who would be enthusiastic no matter what he said or did. And as stated, Biden DID basically do just that, and it seems to have only hurt his approval ratings. So maybe arguing that he should do that thing some more isn't gonna help much.
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Dec 19, 2023 00:39
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Fart Amplifier posted:Nobody can seem to agree whether media attention helps or hurts Trump. It seemed like half this forum was blaming Trump's win on the media attention he received. I think the biggest contributor is that lots of people either want the bad things or don't care enough to vote to avoid them Trump's 2016 win definitely was helped by lots of free, uncritical coverage where even when the headline was the shocking thing he said it got played as light media controversy next to the Very Serious Business of Butter Emails, and his offhanded comment of "I have a health care plan and it's beautiful!" got a lot more coverage than actual policy statements from Dems. His rallies got massive airtime, not just little clips, and commentary against them was surprisingly light since even a lot of people who weren't fans handwaved it as just campaign trash talk from a trash talk guy. Trump got a free ride from being the new show in town everyone was captivated by and having no real record to attack him on. Those days are over, and would be even if his rhetoric hadn't gotten more deranged and if he wasn't visibly less there than he was eight years ago.
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Dec 19, 2023 00:43
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