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cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

BillsPhoenix posted:

I think most posters here know this, but I'm not predicting a future US military build up in that area.

It's already started. Here's one of many - publicly available examples. https://www.eurasiantimes.com/game-on-with-china-us-to-restore-tinian-airfield-once-home/?amp

Another poster already brought up the publicly available Chinese coast guard story, highlighting that China isn't just passive about the situation.

I'm not saying the US will contain China. I am saying they are actively building permanent military installations in the south China Sea and nearby.

I'm predicting this leads to a limited hot war with China, that Americans will struggle with very likely losing, and a lack of escalation. It's not something Americans are used to.
I think Americans are actually very used to struggling and losing limited hot wars.

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skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

cat botherer posted:

I think Americans are actually very used to struggling and losing limited hot wars.

No?

The Iraq invasions were limited hot wars and the US rocked face there, if only because the enemy was weakened by duking it out with Iran for 8 years prior in a much hotter war. Afghanistan was knocked over in a month or so. The occupation is where the US falls on its rear end. That's actually part of the problem, Americans think every war is gonna be like the Gulf or March-April 2003 where we just poo poo on everything with planes and win (on paper).

Cookie Cutter
Nov 29, 2020

Is there something else that's bothering you Mr. President?

DancingShade posted:

US F-35 Loses ‘Stealth Panel’ Flying Over The Pacific; Second Incident Reported From Kadena Air Base

Stealth tech working as intended

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

skooma512 posted:

No?

The Iraq invasions were limited hot wars and the US rocked face there, if only because the enemy was weakened by duking it out with Iran for 8 years prior in a much hotter war. Afghanistan was knocked over in a month or so. The occupation is where the US falls on its rear end. That's actually part of the problem, Americans think every war is gonna be like the Gulf or March-April 2003 where we just poo poo on everything with planes and win (on paper).
OK, but have you considered that America is an r-worded demon country?

BillsPhoenix
Jun 29, 2023
But what if Russia aren't the bad guys? I'm just asking questions...

cat botherer posted:

OK, but have you considered that America is an r-worded demon country?

It seems like you haven't? Arrogance and divine right. Almost no Americans think they lost Afghanistan or Iraq 1, and very few think Iraq 2 was a loss - at most some liberals think it was a missuse of funds and lives for oil.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

skooma512 posted:

Afghanistan was knocked over in a month or so.

the taliban never lost, never stopped fighting, and won the war.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

might as well say the nazis won ww2 because you arbitrarily drew a line after the battle of france and called the rest of it something else

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

The Oldest Man posted:

might as well say the nazis won ww2 because you arbitrarily drew a line after the battle of france and called the rest of it something else

the nazis did win ww2 because the us still exists

Marzzle
Dec 1, 2004

Bursting with flavor

cat botherer posted:

America is an r-worded demon country.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

The Oldest Man posted:

the taliban never lost, never stopped fighting, and won the war.

I know, but popular perception of Afghanistan was that the US invaded, defeated the nominal military of the country, and that's that the hot war bit done. The reality of course was more complex.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

The Oldest Man posted:

the taliban never lost, never stopped fighting, and won the war.

Until the US abetted the Northern Alliance murdering a bunch of them in shipping containers, and until they were denied any place at the Jirga or other councils that traditionally end a war among the Afghans, they were willing to lay down their arms.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Frosted Flake posted:

Until the US abetted the Northern Alliance murdering a bunch of them in shipping containers, and until they were denied any place at the Jirga or other councils that traditionally end a war among the Afghans, they were willing to lay down their arms.

"we won't accept your surrender" and then getting owned is, indeed, a very funny way to lose a war.

skooma512 posted:

I know, but popular perception of Afghanistan was that the US invaded, defeated the nominal military of the country, and that's that the hot war bit done. The reality of course was more complex that the popular perception was wrong

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

what's the over/under on the houthis sinking at least one destroyer

https://twitter.com/IranObserver0/status/1736810715866935372
https://twitter.com/NavyStrang/status/1737123337644675231

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


I don't actually think the Houthis need to actually win a single tactical engagement here. Just forcing the ships to deploy and the aircraft to fly is going to attrit the USN and probably at an unsustainable level; just a question of whether they can bomb the Yemenis into submission before planes start crashing and ships start ramming each other. And as long as the fight continues commerce is going to continue to be totally hosed which is victory for the Houthis.

Buuut if there's one thing we know the Yemenis are weak to it's an air-only campaign using US supplied aircraft and weapons so I'm sure they'll be giving up in loving no time

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/charlieINTEL/status/1737228878731428164

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


oh boy i cant wait for some cod blops takes on the gulf war

are we going to get to see iraqis ripping kuwaiti babies out of incubators? i bet we areee

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

The Oldest Man posted:

oh boy i cant wait for some cod blops takes on the gulf war

are we going to get to see iraqis ripping kuwaiti babies out of incubators? i bet we areee

I want them to make Wag The Dog The Game The Dog

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

The Oldest Man posted:

I don't actually think the Houthis need to actually win a single tactical engagement here. Just forcing the ships to deploy and the aircraft to fly is going to attrit the USN and probably at an unsustainable level; just a question of whether they can bomb the Yemenis into submission before planes start crashing and ships start ramming each other. And as long as the fight continues commerce is going to continue to be totally hosed which is victory for the Houthis.

Buuut if there's one thing we know the Yemenis are weak to it's an air-only campaign using US supplied aircraft and weapons so I'm sure they'll be giving up in loving no time

shutting down the port of eilat and denying the egyptians canal transit fares alone is a great deal of pressure

FuzzySlippers
Feb 6, 2009

It feels like 10 or more years ago the US would've responded to Ansarallah much faster. At least some cruise missiles or bombing for publicity. If it's a slower response presumably it's either America being too thinly stretched or they are concerned about Yemeni capability.

Whatever happens the US excels at reframing defeat as victory so losing another war they have to do mental gymnastics for domestic consumption won't necessarily be new. I think it's likely the US would pull out before losing ships, but if they did gently caress up to the point of actually losing a couple expensive ships and have hundreds of sailors die that could be harder to spin.

atelier morgan
Mar 11, 2003

super-scientific, ultra-gay

Lipstick Apathy

FuzzySlippers posted:

It feels like 10 or more years ago the US would've responded to Ansarallah much faster. At least some cruise missiles or bombing for publicity. If it's a slower response presumably it's either America being too thinly stretched or they are concerned about Yemeni capability.

Whatever happens the US excels at reframing defeat as victory so losing another war they have to do mental gymnastics for domestic consumption won't necessarily be new. I think it's likely the US would pull out before losing ships, but if they did gently caress up to the point of actually losing a couple expensive ships and have hundreds of sailors die that could be harder to spin.

ansar allah shot down f-15s during the conflict, the us could fling some cruise missiles but any air campaign would need long planning and concentrated force such that the buildup would be obvious for months

hamas and hezbollah lack integrated air defense networks, ansar allah does not

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
from the replies to that ship tracker tweet

https://twitter.com/hq_storage/status/1737136935280529590



This... This the typea brain we're destroying the world for?

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/leafwork/status/1737231630731780351

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

atelier morgan posted:

ansar allah shot down f-15s during the conflict, the us could fling some cruise missiles but any air campaign would need long planning and concentrated force such that the buildup would be obvious for months

hamas and hezbollah lack integrated air defense networks, ansar allah does not

Ansar has proper IADS and SAMs?

I'm not sure if I'm more surprised that they have it, or that Hezbollah does not.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

skooma512 posted:

Ansar has proper IADS and SAMs?

I'm not sure if I'm more surprised that they have it, or that Hezbollah does not.

You can in fact see them in that tweet about operation whatever the gently caress Money Shield Good if I'm not mistaken

uber_stoat
Jan 21, 2001



Pillbug
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_Saudi_Arabian%E2%80%93led_intervention_in_Yemen:blastu::blastu::blastu:

FuzzySlippers
Feb 6, 2009

atelier morgan posted:

ansar allah shot down f-15s during the conflict, the us could fling some cruise missiles but any air campaign would need long planning and concentrated force such that the buildup would be obvious for months

hamas and hezbollah lack integrated air defense networks, ansar allah does not

Didn't know their air defenses were that good. Though in the past the US has generally been cavalier about firing off some cruise missiles to "send a message". Even if they don't hit anything important they can still look muscular on cable news. I wonder if the reluctance here is material (they don't have the missiles to waste) or diplomatic (hoping to find a solution that doesn't antagonize them or others in the region further).

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

FuzzySlippers posted:

Didn't know their air defenses were that good. Though in the past the US has generally been cavalier about firing off some cruise missiles to "send a message". Even if they don't hit anything important they can still look muscular on cable news. I wonder if the reluctance here is material (they don't have the missiles to waste) or diplomatic (hoping to find a solution that doesn't antagonize them or others in the region further).

The US is probably worried about Yemen firing off its own rockets in order to "send a message" themselves and taking out a Saudi oil well.

atelier morgan
Mar 11, 2003

super-scientific, ultra-gay

Lipstick Apathy

skooma512 posted:

Ansar has proper IADS and SAMs?

I'm not sure if I'm more surprised that they have it, or that Hezbollah does not.

hezbollah did not have the capability for diplomatic/internal political reasons and is doing what it can to fix that given the ongoing

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

brb getting a letter of marque

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
code:
https://twitter.com/IranObserver0/status/1737219425743393259

quote:

The US is concerned about the cost of missiles used against Houthi drones, according to Politico, as the country is trillions of dollars in debt

According to US official, the US has used SM-2 missiles worth $2.1 million to intercept a Yemeni drone worth $2000.

The US has intercepted 38 flying objects so far

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

gradenko_2000 posted:

code:
https://twitter.com/IranObserver0/status/1737219425743393259

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/us-can-certainly-afford-military-support-to-both-israel-and-ukraine-janet-yellen-says.html

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005


Wing Loong II UAV MALE

Owlbear Camus
Jan 3, 2013

Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?



gradenko_2000 posted:

code:
https://twitter.com/IranObserver0/status/1737219425743393259

someone who is good at economy please help my moribund empire is dying

poisonpill
Nov 8, 2009

The only way to get huge fast is to insult a passing witch and hope she curses you with Beast-strength.


fight less forever wars

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:
give yemen an icbm

Complications
Jun 19, 2014


According to Marine Traffic there's plenty of cargo ships transiting the Suez. Some may have dived south or diverted west, but I'm curious what filters are on that map. If it's just Israel bound cargo ships headed away, well, tough luck lol.

Clip-On Fedora
Feb 20, 2011

I'm really glad to hear America has decided to guard prosperity. It's great they're doing something nice for a change

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Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

this is absolutely incredible

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