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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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appropriatemetaphor
Jan 26, 2006

The explosion looked bigger than what I imagine a load of shaheeds would produce so yeah makes sense.

Unless they're like really packed in there.

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

Read some report that it wasn’t drones or just drones, (wouldn’t those come in via the Caspian anyway) but a couple thousand artillery shells and grad missiles.

Russia is reporting only one dead from the attack.

I absolutely do not believe only one person died from that attack unless they all fled while the fire was ongoing.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

CommieGIR posted:

I absolutely do not believe only one person died from that attack unless they all fled while the fire was ongoing.

Well, they only found one body, sooo..

Captain Postal
Sep 16, 2007

OAquinas posted:

Well, they only found one body, sooo..

Maybe they put all the body parts they found in a bucket and it weighed around 75kg so they called it good enough...

redshirt posted:

I am eagerly waiting for the day, soon to come, when Russia truly realizes they are losing, and will continue to lose. The Russian people.

What happens then?

who says they're losing? Trump is clear that if he wins the next election, he'll end the war in 24 hours by giving Russia everything they want for peace.

Go look at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ and tell me Russia has lost - at this rate if they hold out for 11 more months, they could win it all

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Captain Postal fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Dec 27, 2023

redshirt
Aug 11, 2007

I am eagerly waiting for the day, soon to come, when Russia truly realizes they are losing, and will continue to lose. The Russian people.

What happens then?

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

redshirt posted:

I am eagerly waiting for the day, soon to come, when Russia truly realizes they are losing, and will continue to lose. The Russian people.

What happens then?

This will not happen for quite some time, if ever.
2024 is going to be a very rough year for Ukraine; how the war is perceived hinges on how well they survive it.

Russia is still gaining ground and isn't getting displaced from its seized holdings. They're hemorrhaging men and materiel but they have both in relative abundance. Meanwhile we're one catastrophic vote away from a putin friendly US president and the drying up of all aid from the US (the latter possibly occurring even well prior to that vote). Putin's comfortable in his position; he has an absolute grip on Russia and its people. Life is cheap to him.


It's not all doom and gloom, but Russia is far from cracking.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

OAquinas posted:

This will not happen for quite some time, if ever.
2024 is going to be a very rough year for Ukraine; how the war is perceived hinges on how well they survive it.

Russia is still gaining ground and isn't getting displaced from its seized holdings. They're hemorrhaging men and materiel but they have both in relative abundance. Meanwhile we're one catastrophic vote away from a putin friendly US president and the drying up of all aid from the US (the latter possibly occurring even well prior to that vote). Putin's comfortable in his position; he has an absolute grip on Russia and its people. Life is cheap to him.


It's not all doom and gloom, but Russia is far from cracking.

They also are not exactly 'winning' either. Yeah, they may be trying to play for the clock but its unlikely even with a reversal of US support that they suddenly start making good ground gains, they are still conducting body wave operations.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Here's some F16's, gently caress up their navy first

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

The US is the largest contributor of aid to Ukraine but hardly the only supporter. If Trump wins and revokes all support for Ukraine I would imagine that many European countries would step up their military/civilian aid even further. If Russia did get its peace it will have to deal with an insurgency from a country that has done this before to the Soviet Union post-WW2 and unlike the shitshow that was Iraq the insurgents will be receiving much more international support. This assumes Trump wins and withdraws support for Ukraine, even though he was pro-Russia during his administration the US started sending out lethal weapons to Ukraine

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

Budzilla posted:

The US is the largest contributor of aid to Ukraine but hardly the only supporter. If Trump wins and revokes all support for Ukraine I would imagine that many European countries would step up their military/civilian aid even further. If Russia did get its peace it will have to deal with an insurgency from a country that has done this before to the Soviet Union post-WW2 and unlike the shitshow that was Iraq the insurgents will be receiving much more international support. This assumes Trump wins and withdraws support for Ukraine, even though he was pro-Russia during his administration the US started sending out lethal weapons to Ukraine

I have bad news about folks who various European nations will elect in next year or two.

Poland being only recent positive example, but Netherlands and Slovakia went HARD right. And we have Austria, Portugal and Croatia in 2024, none of those are too significant donors to Ukraine, and also UK at the end of the year.

And then comes the big one in 2025 which has the big one, Germany, and also Czech republic.

Mistle
Oct 11, 2005

Eckot's comic relief cousin from out of town
Grimey Drawer
♪ I saw the UA sink a ship ♫
♪ On Christmas Day, on Christmas Day ♫
♪ I saw the UA sink a ship ♫
♪ On Christmas Day in the morning ♫

Moktaro
Aug 3, 2007
I value call my nuts.

Mistle posted:

♪ I saw the UA sink a ship ♫
♪ On Christmas Day, on Christmas Day ♫
♪ I saw the UA sink a ship ♫
♪ On Christmas Day in the morning ♫

No (unilateral) Christmas Truce, truly Ukraine are the real nazis. :colbert:

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Budzilla posted:

The US is the largest contributor of aid to Ukraine but hardly the only supporter. If Trump wins and revokes all support for Ukraine I would imagine that many European countries would step up their military/civilian aid even further.

Most of what military equipment Europe can spare has already been sent and the civilian aid is being held hostage by the Putin minded EU countries.
Of course money can be sent from the countries and not through the EU but this would go against decades of almost religious belief these kind things should go always through the EU.

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVFWYjqUq-k

Seems to be the case Ukraine didnt just get that landing craft, they got two other Russian vessels as well at the same time

ili
Jul 26, 2003


CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVFWYjqUq-k

Seems to be the case Ukraine didnt just get that landing craft, they got two other Russian vessels as well at the same time

So what you're saying is Russia gets the triple economic boost of making three new ships? Checkmate westailures, Putin stays winning.

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus
truly a christmas miracle

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

CeeJee posted:

Most of what military equipment Europe can spare has already been sent and the civilian aid is being held hostage by the Putin minded EU countries.
The Netherlands are sending 18 F16s to Ukraine, according to wikipedia (grain of salt) they are supposed to have over 200 F16s with more than half of those receiving a MLU (mid life update). They can send more stuff it is the political will of how much draw down of stocks to explain to the electorate they are willing to argue. Perun did a video about this a few months ago about this exact subject.

CeeJee posted:

Of course money can be sent from the countries and not through the EU but this would go against decades of almost religious belief these kind things should go always through the EU.
Yeah but this is the largest war in Europe since WW2 I don't think any governments that go against this norm would suffer consequences due to the situation.

Philonius
Jun 12, 2005

Budzilla posted:

The Netherlands are sending 18 F16s to Ukraine, according to wikipedia (grain of salt) they are supposed to have over 200 F16s with more than half of those receiving a MLU (mid life update). They can send more stuff it is the political will of how much draw down of stocks to explain to the electorate they are willing to argue. Perun did a video about this a few months ago about this exact subject.


If only. We had 200 F16s at the peak in the early 90s. That number has steadily dwindled as airframes were taken out of service and not replaced, and that's only accelerated as they are being replaced by F35s. I think we had about 50 or so F16s before we transferred the 18 to Ukraine.

It's a bit depressing, looking back at the state of the military at the end of the cold war, and seeing just how much has been economized away. The Netherlands by itself had over 900 Leopard tanks in 1990. We could have supplied all tanks sent to Ukraine by ourselves, without breaking too much of a sweat. Currently we have 0.

Kestral
Nov 24, 2000

Forum Veteran

Philonius posted:

If only. We had 200 F16s at the peak in the early 90s. That number has steadily dwindled as airframes were taken out of service and not replaced, and that's only accelerated as they are being replaced by F35s. I think we had about 50 or so F16s before we transferred the 18 to Ukraine.

It's a bit depressing, looking back at the state of the military at the end of the cold war, and seeing just how much has been economized away. The Netherlands by itself had over 900 Leopard tanks in 1990. We could have supplied all tanks sent to Ukraine by ourselves, without breaking too much of a sweat. Currently we have 0.

Turns out the real peace dividend is getting to watch helplessly as Russia warcrimes its way across your friendly neighbors.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Philonius posted:

It's a bit depressing, looking back at the state of the military at the end of the cold war, and seeing just how much has been economized away. The Netherlands by itself had over 900 Leopard tanks in 1990. We could have supplied all tanks sent to Ukraine by ourselves, without breaking too much of a sweat. Currently we have 0.

Finland bought 100 of those Leo 2A6 for really cheap. At least they werent scrapped.

Clerical Terrors
Apr 24, 2016

I'm so tired, I'm so very tired

Budzilla posted:

The Netherlands are sending 18 F16s to Ukraine, according to wikipedia (grain of salt) they are supposed to have over 200 F16s with more than half of those receiving a MLU (mid life update). They can send more stuff it is the political will of how much draw down of stocks to explain to the electorate they are willing to argue. Perun did a video about this a few months ago about this exact subject.

Yeah but this is the largest war in Europe since WW2 I don't think any governments that go against this norm would suffer consequences due to the situation.

The leader of the current largest party in the Netherlands specifically mentioned on the campaign trail that he didn't even want to send those 18 F16s because "We should be using those ourselves" against god knows what. The continued aid seems mostly contingent on other liberal partners in his future coalition demanding it, but they could just as easily concede in order to secure some other compromises.

Ukraine will probably at least get to keep what they've received so far but it's not looking great in terms of aid from western Europe. Public support is spotty and populist anger is latching on to the military aid question as another liberal excess that could be better used domestically.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Clerical Terrors posted:

The leader of the current largest party in the Netherlands specifically mentioned on the campaign trail that he didn't even want to send those 18 F16s because "We should be using those ourselves" against god knows what. The continued aid seems mostly contingent on other liberal partners in his future coalition demanding it, but they could just as easily concede in order to secure some other compromises.

I guess he wants to start bombing refugees or something.

DJ Burette
Jan 6, 2010
I'm begging people who seem to know nothing about Europe to please stop doomposting about what Europeans think. The attitudes of the public towards Ukraine have seen very little drop in support, the win for Geert Wilders in the NL has much more to do with Dutch farming policies than it does with Ukraine, has not put him into power yet, and he may well not be able to form a coalition. Even if he does it is unlikely he will be able to stop aid to Ukraine as every other party supports it. While Hungary was able to block the €50b package of aid, the EU is currently lining up a €20b package he can't block and is looking at using the sanctioned reserves taken from Russia as additional funding.

I would love for European countries to be doing more, some of the reasons for lower deliveries of munitions are embarrassing and shouldn't have occurred, but doomposting is also not helpful in understanding what is actually happening and is doing Russia's work for them by making a collapse of support seem inevitable.

Arzachel
May 12, 2012

DJ Burette posted:

I'm begging people who seem to know nothing about Europe to please stop doomposting about what Europeans think. The attitudes of the public towards Ukraine have seen very little drop in support, the win for Geert Wilders in the NL has much more to do with Dutch farming policies than it does with Ukraine, has not put him into power yet, and he may well not be able to form a coalition. Even if he does it is unlikely he will be able to stop aid to Ukraine as every other party supports it. While Hungary was able to block the €50b package of aid, the EU is currently lining up a €20b package he can't block and is looking at using the sanctioned reserves taken from Russia as additional funding.

I would love for European countries to be doing more, some of the reasons for lower deliveries of munitions are embarrassing and shouldn't have occurred, but doomposting is also not helpful in understanding what is actually happening and is doing Russia's work for them by making a collapse of support seem inevitable.

I didn't get that, can you explain everything solely through the lens of American politics? tia

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Philonius posted:

If only. We had 200 F16s at the peak in the early 90s. That number has steadily dwindled as airframes were taken out of service and not replaced, and that's only accelerated as they are being replaced by F35s. I think we had about 50 or so F16s before we transferred the 18 to Ukraine.
I agree with this but if the Dutch government can only draw from 50 F16s serviceable airframes out of the original 200 then how many other F16s from other countries can be taken from too? The F-16 has over 4500+ produced over the years and saying that "we can't get more from old stock" or try to cannibalise current fleets (in the transition to the F35 platform) is ridiculous. With an aircraft that numerous pilot training and weapon logistics should be more of a concern. Ukraine wouldn't be too picky about the F-16 variants it received.

DJ Burette posted:

I'm begging people who seem to know nothing about Europe to please stop doomposting about what Europeans think.
More offtopic. A lot of foreign policy for countries suffers from inertia of policy change due to local political realities and when you get into office you have a situation in a foreign land that you don't want to be in and passing a law cannot get yourself out of.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Arzachel posted:

I didn't get that, can you explain everything solely through the lens of American politics? tia
Obama kept the war in Afganistan going after OBL was killed. Foreign policy can change but it is not a quick turnaround as it should be.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1739965596828365175#m
Like we never heard that one before.

NihilCredo
Jun 6, 2011

iram omni possibili modo preme:
plus una illa te diffamabit, quam multæ virtutes commendabunt

Oh no they found the Swedish MREs :ohdear:

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/26/7434696/

quote:

Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Ukraine's Air Force Commander, has commented that his figure being put on the wanted list of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is a proof of the effectiveness of his work.

Source: Oleshchuk in a comment for Ukrainska Pravda; a pro-Kremlin Russian news outlet TASS with reference to the search database of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs

Details: The Russian media, with reference to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' database, said Oleshchuk was accused in absentia of a "terrorist act after a drone attack on the Russian territory".

Quote from Oleshchuk: "Such a decision of the 'judicial' system of the terrorist state's criminal regime is only a confirmation that I am doing everything right, a confirmation of the Air Force combat work’s effectiveness."
Russian butthurt is off the charts, lmao

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь
God willing the new draft of guys with no jaws, legs or balls will allow Ukraine to sweep the field. Slava!

zone
Dec 6, 2016

ContinuityNewTimes posted:

God willing the new draft of guys with no jaws, legs or balls will allow Ukraine to sweep the field. Slava!

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
indeed I don't think they will help russia very much

Tai
Mar 8, 2006
Russians filming themselves priming grenades and wedging them under dead UA soldiers is a nice new low of the war so far.

Something something NATO is to blame

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1740025805105762674#m

quote:

⚡️The russians sent a large group of agents to Feodosiia [temporarily occupied Crimea] to find those responsible for the destruction of the landing ship "Novocherkask», reports the partisan movement «ATESH».

«Putin is angry about the destruction of the russian landing ship "Novocherkask". An order has been issued to punish the Crimean air defense forces. It is expected that many commanders will be withdrawn and sent to the front to participate in the assault groups,» reports the partisan movement.
Good, they can join their comrades from the artillery divisions that haven't enough weapons to go around.

jimmy mnemonic
Jan 9, 2007

Fun Shoe

ATESH posted:

Putin is angry about the destruction of the russian landing ship "Novocherkask"

He's so angry he soiled himself

Collapsing Farts
Jun 29, 2018

💀
why would they need to punish the air defense forces when they shot down all the attackers

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
"All war is deception"
-Sun Tzu

they won't be expecting the air defense forces on foot. Genius

LordArgh
Mar 17, 2009

Nap Ghost
what air defense doing? assaulting prepared defensive positions on foot, of course.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1740025805105762674#m

Good, they can join their comrades from the artillery divisions that haven't enough weapons to go around.

Nice to see them following in the footsteps of the Wehrmacht where failure is punished by being sent to the miserable Russian front.

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Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImHli2Q_g_Q

just send the Afrika Korps to the North Pole

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