(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Fidelitious posted:
A great deal of both international and domestic politics these days boils down to this difficulty.
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Dec 28, 2023 15:23
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Fidelitious posted:I had thought that this sort of thing would've happened quite a while ago. Like what is Russia going to do, get more mad? Attack even more? As I understand it, the problem is that in a lot of jurisdictions, the executive branch confiscating money (or property in general) is limited due to the fact that property is a human right (see article 1 of the 1st protocol of the European Convention on Human Rights) which means you need some sort of legal basis to allow you to confiscate it (as is the case in anti-money laundering legislation). Incidentally, property was only included as a human right in the first protocol because the postwar British government wanted to carry out a number of nationalisations without being burdened by property rights as human rights, and so it was only included in a protocol after the UK had carried out the confiscations it wanted in the period after the second world war. It'd probably be embarrassing as gently caress to confiscate Russian money (especially that owned not directly by the Russian state but by state-owned enterprises, oligarchs, and those oligarchs' companies which nominally have not much to do with the war itself) and then having a drawn-out legal battle with a judge ordering you to return the money. I don't think the EU, (most of) its Member States or the USA would comply with such an order, but generally speaking just ignoring a court order is not a fantastic precedent to set as a democratic state which nominally upholds the rule of law. Especially when the human right being infringed is one that is very dear to the ruling classes.
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Dec 28, 2023 15:39
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I mean, the US doesn't respect that right domestically. Even setting that aside, the US has capital punishment still. I agree that it is a difficult precedent to set if the intent was to set a rule that would be applied evenly, but it isn't like this mechanism would ever be successfully used against the US or the EU. The real issue seems to be that China and various other parts of the global south might become reluctant to invest overseas with a threat like that looming, so taking the action would probably cause a short-term market crash. At the end of the day though, the US dollar and, to a lesser degree, the Euro are standard international currencies in part because everyone else is LESS secure - there isn't some other place to park money with fewer risks even accounting for this, and I don't know that I believe this would be a tipping point in the long run so long as the line is drawn cleanly enough. Even if the economic shock of doing that is seen as too risky, then the people opposed need to come up with an alternative - levy a 100% tax on profits from investments held by sanctioned individuals and companies or whatever, it's a moral imperative to follow this through, so it needs to get done.
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Dec 28, 2023 16:04
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PIZZA.BAT posted:I’m not very familiar with the history of asset freezing & seizure but wouldn’t this be unprecedented in the modern era? Sure asset freezes happen all the time but I don’t know any other examples of outright confiscations, at least at this scale Iraq had hundreds of billions seized after they invaded Kuwait. It's actually a good precedent : invading a neighboring country to seize land by force results in forfeiture of assets in order to fund reparations.
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Dec 28, 2023 16:25
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BougieBitch posted:I mean, the US doesn't respect that right domestically. Even setting that aside, the US has capital punishment still. I think you missed the OP's point. In the US, even if it's for a lovely/corrupt/power-tripping reason, the authorities still have to point to some sort of asset forfeiture/eminent domain/etc. law/precedent in a courtroom if they're sued for taking someone's stuff, they just can't say "because I felt like it." And if they ignore a court's ruling, that's evidence of the rule of law breaking down in general, not of property rights specifically.
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Dec 28, 2023 16:25
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BougieBitch posted:I mean, the US doesn't respect that right domestically. Even setting that aside, the US has capital punishment still. You dont have to worry about this much if you dont have ties to Putin. Most of the assets frozen in every country have direct links to Putin. This doesnt affect most Russian citizens living abroad. Eg. Roman Abramovich's propery and holdings in the uk. He doesnt get to fly off to help out the motherland and play the sovereign citizen card at the same time. Im going to assume in most countries they would treat this the same way you might with organized crime.
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Dec 28, 2023 17:41
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numptyboy posted:You dont have to worry about this much if you dont have ties to Putin. Most of the assets frozen in every country have direct links to Putin. This doesnt affect most Russian citizens living abroad. I assume that is where most of the resistance comes from. There is a poo poo ton of dirty money flowing into foreign financial systems and real-estate markets. Business ties with mafia states are extremely lucrative, and those involved don't want the gravy train to end, even if they aren't going to come out and say it like that.
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Dec 28, 2023 18:45
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Nenonen posted:I think it's well within the range of ATACMS. But if it's practical for ATACMS to hit, I don't know. Storm Shadow has terrain reference navigation system, which allows it to maintain accuracy even in areas that Russia has active signal jamming denying GPS navigation.
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Dec 28, 2023 20:23
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Seems like a grain ship hit a mine coming into Odessa, two injured and ship is damaged enough that it can't maintain course. I worry about implications to shipping insurance, even with extra funds set aside by western governments
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Dec 28, 2023 20:55
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Ukraine can be extremely effective, but they can't really do anything if the russians use their remaining subs to mine shipping lanes.
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Dec 29, 2023 02:15
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Photos of that ship that are attributed show stick booms on deck. It’s a stick ship. That means it’s old as gently caress. Egyptian / UKR and Turkish crew Panama flag… I’d bet it’s valuation before damages is… scrap. That said not knowing the deadweight I’d guess single digit millions? It’s good it wasn’t loaded, the grain would easily be worth more than the ship.
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Dec 29, 2023 02:54
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Fidelitious posted:I had thought that this sort of thing would've happened quite a while ago. Like what is Russia going to do, get more mad? Attack even more? 110 missiles fired on Ukraine in one night, so apparently yes. Probably mostly in response for sinking that ship though.
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Dec 29, 2023 10:56
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Photos of that ship that are attributed show stick booms on deck. It’s a stick ship. That means it’s old as gently caress. Egyptian / UKR and Turkish crew Panama flag… Some of us are sea-dumb, what does a stick ship mean?
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Dec 29, 2023 13:33
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bird food bathtub posted:Some of us are sea-dumb, what does a stick ship mean? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67834841 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra1Q_LZ0tfE I'm guessing it's the specific style of cargo cranes the ship carries. I know that geared bulk carriers (i.e. those with their own cranes) are already rare, this must be even more so.
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Dec 29, 2023 14:07
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nvm, wrong thread
The_Franz fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Dec 29, 2023 |
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Dec 29, 2023 16:48
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SixFigureSandwich posted:110 missiles fired on Ukraine in one night, so apparently yes. Probably mostly in response for sinking that ship though. 158 according to this translation of the UA MOD. quote:#UkrainianView $540k worth of Shahed ($20k per Google search) $652 mil to 1.131 bil in Kh/X-# missiles, depending on the cost estimate and the mix fired. Quite the temper tantrum over that boat getting owned. It also appears that the chip embargo is embarrassingly lovely, if they're able to stock this much. Edit- bonus AA footage of Odessa https://x.com/PopularFront_/status/1740167306767225160 ummel fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Dec 29, 2023 |
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Dec 29, 2023 17:02
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Ynglaur posted:I am not an intelligence imagery analyst, but shadows move with the sun. Remember to account for time of day, etc. I'm not talking about the angle cast relative to the ship, I'm talking the angle of the top edge relative to the ground. If you have a flat surface (like a table top) and shine a light on it from above, the edge of the shadow on the ground will move as you move the light, but it will never rotate/tilt - only translate/shift. The only way to get it to rotate or tilt relative to the floor is to physically turn the table or lift one end of the table up. The flat top of the shadow looks like it tilted relative to the buildings and the only way to get it to do that is for one end of the ship to either move towards/away from the shore or to go up or down relative to the other end.
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Dec 29, 2023 18:11
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KillHour posted:I'm not talking about the angle cast relative to the ship, I'm talking the angle of the top edge relative to the ground. If you have a flat surface (like a table top) and shine a light on it from above, the edge of the shadow on the ground will move as you move the light, but it will never rotate/tilt - only translate/shift. The only way to get it to rotate or tilt relative to the floor is to physically turn the table or lift one end of the table up. The flat top of the shadow looks like it tilted relative to the buildings and the only way to get it to do that is for one end of the ship to either move towards/away from the shore or to go up or down relative to the other end. Thanks! That makes a lot if sense, and you clearly thought it through more than I had.
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Dec 29, 2023 18:16
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Ynglaur posted:Thanks! That makes a lot if sense, and you clearly thought it through more than I had. It's still a ton of speculation and bullshit "I can tell by the pixels" type extrapolating from a grainy picture just to say "your boat looks like it's seen better days" 
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Dec 29, 2023 18:22
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KillHour posted:It's still a ton of speculation and bullshit "I can tell by the pixels" type extrapolating from a grainy picture just to say "your boat doesn't look like it's doing too hot" Well, not anymore they're not. For one brief, shining moment they were doing really hot.
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Dec 29, 2023 18:23
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bird food bathtub posted:Well, not anymore they're not. For one brief, shining moment they were doing really hot. I anticipated this and ninja edited it but you still beat me 
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Dec 29, 2023 18:26
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ummel posted:158 according to this translation of the UA MOD. It would be interesting to compare against last year's numbers, I thought it was reported that this year that Russia didn't try as many infrastructure strikes and everybody was waiting for the stockpiled munitions to be spent.
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Dec 29, 2023 18:46
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It would be pretty on brand to stockpile a bunch of harder to get, good weapons, and then throw them away all in one go to get some wounded pride back.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:45
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TasogareNoKagi posted:I'm guessing it's the specific style of cargo cranes the ship carries. I know that geared bulk carriers (i.e. those with their own cranes) are already rare, this must be even more so. Yes it refers to the type of cranes an older type with booms. It’s not the oldest of that type but it’s a pretty old type. No, geared vessels are not rare, Handy sized general purpose vessels are quite common and regularly carry bulk.
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Dec 30, 2023 00:35
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That would be loving terrifying to witness first hand.
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Dec 30, 2023 00:52
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:That would be loving terrifying to witness first hand. Yeah big props to that dude for getting his smartphone out and staying near the windows cause I'd hide below decks and pray
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Dec 30, 2023 01:19
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Apparantly, at least one of the missiles from last night's attack flew through Polish airspace. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-12-29-23/h_c7ab342c195ea7af1f0833f9119fff1a quote:"All indications" are that Russian missile flew over Poland, senior Polish military official says Also, the Biden admin bypassed Congress again to transfer $150 million of military equipment to Israel. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/29/politics/biden-congress-israel-military-aid/index.html Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 01:20
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I think it's time to start letting Patriots in Poland start shooting any missile that comes close to NATO airspace. Keep boiling that frog. I wish we had gotten an Aegis into the Black Sea before 2022, though that would be a very long deployment.
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Dec 30, 2023 01:51
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Mr. Apollo posted:Apparantly, at least one of the missiles from last night's attack flew through Polish airspace. I'm trying to find the original announcement because it looks like $150 million is the total; this appears to be around $50 on top of the earlier 100. I'm also still pissed about the "bypassed" poo poo when it's specifically legislatively delegated authority.
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Dec 30, 2023 02:12
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SixFigureSandwich posted:110 missiles fired on Ukraine in one night, so apparently yes. Probably mostly in response for sinking that ship though. Not everything Russia does is necessarily a response to a hit Ukraine did. https://x.com/RALee85/status/1740911874902831514?s=20 Ynglaur posted:I think it's time to start letting Patriots in Poland start shooting any missile that comes close to NATO airspace. Keep boiling that frog. I wish we had gotten an Aegis into the Black Sea before 2022, though that would be a very long deployment. Are Patriots in sufficient supply to start doing something like this?
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Dec 30, 2023 03:07
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I am here for some international civil forfeiture, personally.
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Dec 30, 2023 03:13
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https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1741073512519934193 Ukraine forces have hit Belgorod, lots of pretty sickening gloating on twitter and tiresome tit-for-tat jokes about blaming air defence. Not very optimistic for coming year. --- NYT with a very colourful material chronicling wartime repressions in Russia https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/29/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-censorship.html fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 16:17
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The gloating is appalling, and really unavoidable after Nebenzya's little speech. I always have to remind myself that people on twitter or in tg are more hotheaded than people in real life on average, but it's still hard to see. Russian MoD's official statement says that they've downed all drones and most of the rockets. Of course, they also say that if they didn't down them, they would have caused more destruction and deaths of civilians. It's worth remembering that some damage from Russian attacks in Ukraine also comes from downed drones, rockets, and missiles, but in many cases Russia has no qualms about confirming that they bombed a block of flats or a funeral because it was crawling with nazis and/or foreign mercenaries. Ukrainian MoD, on the other hand, prefers not to comment on strikes within Russia proper as Western countries are not super enthused about them on principle. Some news outlets say their sources in MoD claim the strike was on military targets, but it's hard to tell if those were also just riffing on Russia's regular excuse or it's something they seriously said. Also, I remember I read somewhere that strikes of that scale required about a week of preparations. Now, the most recent Russian strike that looked like retaliation for Novocherkassk, and this strike by Ukraine that looks like it's in response to the Russian one, are not that far apart. Wonder if it says anything about the state of air defence or how targets are selected. E: And Russia's already bombing Kharkiv in response. They've also hit a hotel and seem to imply it was full of foreign mercenaries. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 18:32
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PIZZA.BAT posted:
On asset freezes. It would likely take an Act of Congress to effect a Seizure of any asset freeze. Asset freezes are constitutional under the 5th Amendment because Courts do not recognize it as a deprivation since they are temporary in nature. Congress has the power to regulate captures under the Constitution, but usually Acts related to allocating seizures are a result of Treaties made by the President such as the Iranian Claims Tribunal (which still exists) set up by the Carter Administration. There are examples of Congress allocating specific accounts to victims compensation, such as the victims of the Beirut bombing. See Bank Markazi. However. USA isn't at war with Russia, and unclear how those captures would be recognized. The stickier issue would be the Takings clause claim that there would be no just compensation for a taking. Asset freezes and other sanctions usually do not meet the definitional standard of a Taking for similar reasons to the 5th Due Process claims. And whether it would be enough for a Russian national who was sanctioned to be able to claim that he has standing to sue, whether that individual has sufficient contacts to make a claim if not a citizen. Courts generally give extreme deference to the President and OFAC on individual sanctions efforts. I am broadly unfamiliar with any freeze that has ultimately led to an outright taking, as an extant example. This would represent a dramatic shift in sanctions and international law. In Europe, it is a bit more difficult since Europe's convention on human rights recognizes a right to enjoy property. See Al-Dulimi. And each Member State of the EU implements their own sanctions programs in accordance with whatever sanction is passed by the Community. I am unfamiliar with UK and Japanese sanctions regimes and their laws related to Due process. TropicalCoke fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 19:56
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Paladinus posted:E: And Russia's already bombing Kharkiv in response. They've also hit a hotel and seem to imply it was full of foreign mercenaries. If by mercenaries they mean journalists. It's a pattern for Russia to strike hotels frequented by journalists https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1741159578132226185?s=20
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Dec 30, 2023 20:47
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If people had just kept filing into the humanitarian corridors like they asked, russia wouldn't have needed to bomb maternity hospitals and orphanages to kill them
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Dec 30, 2023 20:55
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Was it Ukrainians who bombed Belgorod? I'm seeing reports that the missiles that hit Belgorod were S300's bound for Kharkiv that didn't make it. There seem to be lots of conflicting stories. https://twitter.com/BrendanMcInnis/status/1741201774491644158 HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 21:57
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as far as I can tell it was Ukrainian missiles that were intercepted over the city: https://t.me/chpbelgorod/11076
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Dec 30, 2023 22:08
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In one photo there's two parked burning cars along a street, not very far from intact parked cars. It makes more sense that this was the result of debris from air defenses and downed drones/missiles because it would make little sense to intentionally target that location, there's nothing.
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Dec 30, 2023 22:14
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 09:03 |
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Nenonen posted:In one photo there's two parked burning cars along a street, not very far from intact parked cars. It makes more sense that this was the result of debris from air defenses and downed drones/missiles because it would make little sense to intentionally target that location, there's nothing. Yeah, I doubt that AFU just pressed "hit everything" randomly, but it was part of calculation of striking military targets in the city/on the outskirts that take collateral damage and interceptions into account (especially if those were not of the most precise variety). This is why Storm Shadows etc are supplied with conditions of not using on Russian territory - so Russian UN rep wouldn't be able to hypocritically wave photos of missile desbris on apartment blocks in Belgorod or Rostov. Truth is, if the western supplies are going to dwindle, such strikes are going to be more frequent, I fear, from the lack of options.
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Dec 30, 2023 22:45
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