2023 Hamas/Israeli War Thread: Pier today, gone tomorrow.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > 2023 Hamas/Israeli War Thread: Pier today, gone tomorrow.

Lovely Joe Stalin: Jun 12, 2007; Our Lovely Wang

Given no one found a weapons cache, and the Israelis were trying to frame some Brazilians as Hamas terrorists about to launch an op the other week, I'm inclined toward scepticism.

# ? Dec 15, 2023 23:32

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 02:41

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

If someone plans to carry out an attack but doesn't manage to get ahold of the weapons to do it, that doesn't make them innocent, it just makes them incompetent.

See: the idiots that wanted to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

Anyway, this wasn't Israel talking about Brazilians. It was an investigation carried out by the Germans and Dutch. What's interesting is that the Danish case was apparently unrelated to it all, but I guess there may have been some cooperation in terms of executing the warrants.

psydude fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Dec 16, 2023

# ? Dec 16, 2023 00:08

PurpleXVI: Oct 30, 2011; Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

psydude posted:

If someone plans to carry out an attack but doesn't manage to get ahold of the weapons to do it, that doesn't make them innocent, it just makes them incompetent.

See: the idiots that wanted to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

I think it's more that we're doubting the existence of these supposed "Hamas weapons in Europe" at all, considering that so far no one has managed to dig up the cache to prove it exists as anything other than a reason to arrest some potentially innocent people on Israel's say-so.

# ? Dec 16, 2023 00:12

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

PurpleXVI posted:

I think it's more that we're doubting the existence of these supposed "Hamas weapons in Europe" at all, considering that so far no one has managed to dig up the cache to prove it exists as anything other than a reason to arrest some potentially innocent people on Israel's say-so.

I'm not a lawyer, and German law is weird so I can't really comment in that regard. But under US and UK law, conspiracy to commit a crime is still a crime, even if you don't actually manage to get very far in the execution stage. Plenty of people have been prosecuted and convicted for trying to get their hands on explosives or weapons, even when they were chasing a false lead. Assuming German law is similar, the existence of the weapons cache is irrelevant. If they received instructions and began planning to use the supposed weapons cache to carry out an attack, that still constitutes conspiracy.

# ? Dec 16, 2023 00:18

PurpleXVI: Oct 30, 2011; Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/25/israels-netanyahu-heckled-inside-parliament-by-families-of-hamas-captives

quote:

Israel�s Netanyahu heckled inside parliament by families of Hamas captives

Prime minister booed when he promises to bring the captives home but adds that �more time� needed.

...

�We wouldn�t have succeeded up until now to release more than 100 hostages without military pressure,� Netanyahu said. �And we won�t succeed at releasing all the hostages without military pressure.�

...

Israel says 129 captives are still held in Gaza. Three of them were mistakenly killed by Israeli forces this month.

# ? Dec 25, 2023 18:24

PurpleXVI: Oct 30, 2011; Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

https://twitter.com/Nimrod_Flash/status/1739683540655047140

quote:

Tal Mitnick, an 18-year-old from Tel-Aviv, just refused to enlist in the Israeli army to protest the war in Gaza and the occupation.

He was sentenced to 30 days in prison.

Comments elaborate that the IDF apparently have chosen in other cases, and might in this case also choose, to demand his enlistment every time he gets out, and every time he refuses, slam him with another 30-day sentence.

https://twitter.com/Nimrod_Flash/status/1739716974563786928

quote:

Just want to make something clear - the 30 day sentence is the first period. After that he will be released, refuse once more, and be imprisoned again. We don�t know for how long this will continue.

...

Usually, not in times of war, the first sentence for refusers is 7-10 days. The army is going hard on Tal probably because it's wartime and since he was very outspoken in the weeks and months leading up to his refusal.

# ? Dec 27, 2023 02:32

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Not a terribly uplifting read, but worthwhile for a mix of history and context of past findings of IDF behavior and the rather unique and unenviable position of Gazans and Palestinians.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/israel/64132/all-that-remains

# ? Dec 27, 2023 22:54

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

The rate of civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza remains unparalleled and unique. This is true in raw numbers, without making an adjustment for percentage of Gazans and size of Gaza. It is also progressing at an alarming pace, so when people and nations take a 1 year or 2 year retrospective, that is comparatively far late to need in contrast with other conflicts that took longer. Taking longer at least, while still terrible, allows civilians to flee. The pace combined with the immobility of the population combined with the populous being told to move to areas that are then bombed anyway are uniquely awful.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2023/israel-war-destruction-gaza-record-pace/

quote:

The Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip has been unlike any other in the 21st century.

In response to the unprecedented assault by Hamas on Oct. 7, Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion that began 20 days later have destroyed large swaths of the besieged territory, killed at least 20,057 people and displaced a vast majority of the population.

The most ferocious attacks have come from the air, flattening entire city blocks and cratering the landscape.

The Washington Post analyzed satellite imagery, airstrike data and U.N. damage assessments, and interviewed more than 20 aid workers, health-care providers, and experts in munitions and aerial warfare. The evidence shows that Israel has carried out its war in Gaza at a pace and level of devastation that likely exceeds any recent conflict, destroying more buildings, in far less time, than were destroyed during the Syrian regime�s battle for Aleppo from 2013 to 2016 and the U.S.-led campaign to defeat the Islamic State in Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria, in 2017.

The Post also found that the Israeli military has conducted repeated and widespread airstrikes in proximity to hospitals, which are supposed to receive special protection under the laws of war. Satellite imagery reviewed by Post reporters revealed dozens of apparent craters near 17 of the 28 hospitals in northern Gaza, where the bombing and fighting were most intense during the first two months of war, including 10 craters that suggested the use of bombs weighing 2,000 pounds, the largest in regular use.

�There�s no safe space. Period,� said Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, who visited Gaza on Dec. 4. �I haven�t passed one street where I didn�t see destruction of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.�

...

�The scale of Palestinian civilian deaths in such a short period of time appears to be the highest such civilian casualty rate in the 21st century,� said Michael Lynk, who served as the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories from 2016 to 2022.

In a reply to questions from The Post, the Israel Defense Forces sent a statement saying: �In response to Hamas� barbaric attacks, the IDF is operating to dismantle Hamas military and administrative capabilities. In stark contrast to Hamas� intentional attacks on Israeli men, women and children, the IDF follows international law and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.�

...

Tom Potokar, a chief surgeon with the International Committee of the Red Cross working in Gaza for the 14th time, said explosive injuries were responsible for all the wounds he and his colleagues at European Hospital in southern Gaza had been treating. Many patients had necrotic wounds requiring amputation due to the lack of supplies and equipment at battered and besieged hospitals in the north.

�For me, personally, this is without a doubt the worst I�ve seen,� said Potokar, who has worked during conflicts in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, Somalia and Ukraine.

Zaher Sahloul, the president of MedGlobal and a doctor who worked in Aleppo during the battle for the city, said he believed that �what�s happening right now in Gaza is beyond any disaster that I�ve witnessed at least in the last 15 years or so.�

Sahloul estimated it will take decades to rebuild the health-care infrastructure destroyed in Gaza and the knowledge and expertise of the scores of doctors and other health-care workers who have been killed.

Preliminary data provided to The Post by Airwars suggested that strikes in Gaza were killing civilians at twice the rate of the U.S.-led campaign in Raqqa. Emily Tripp, the director of Airwars, said that the data they provided The Post represented �just a fraction� of the strikes they were currently researching in Gaza, which averaged about 200 strikes per week. In Airwars�s 10 years of work, Tripp said, the group had never documented more than about 250 civilian casualty strikes per month in any conflict.

�Make no mistake � U.S. operations in Iraq and Syria, especially in densely populated cities like Mosul and Raqqa, caused devastating civilian harm and destruction,� said Annie Shiel, the U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict. �But what we are seeing in Gaza, the level of death and destruction in this relatively short period of time, is absolutely staggering in comparison. Nowhere is safe for civilians.�

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67764664

quote:

How does this compare with other wars?
Each conflict is unique in the way it is fought, but the experts the BBC has spoken to agree that the rate of killing in Gaza is significantly bigger than in others fought recently.
"What we're seeing in terms of civilian deaths has already far outpaced rates of harm from any given conflict we have documented," said Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation which has monitored civilian deaths in wars and conflicts since 2014.
The former Pentagon intelligence analyst Marc Garlasco said: "To find a similar density of high explosives used in a small populated area, we might have to go back to the Vietnam war for a comparable example - like the 1972 Christmas bombing, when some 20,000 tons of bombs were dropped on Hanoi during Operation Linebacker II." An estimated 1,600 Vietnamese civilians were killed in the Christmas bombings.
By contrast, US-led coalition air and artillery strikes killed fewer than 20 civilians per day, on average, during the four-month offensive to drive IS out of the Syrian city of Raqqa in 2017, according to Amnesty International. It is unclear how many civilians lived there at the time, but UN officials estimated that there were between 50,000 and 100,000. Additionally, over 160,000 civilians reportedly fled their homes and became internally displaced at the time.
And an Associated Press investigation suggested that between 9,000 and 11,000 civilians were killed in the nine-month battle between US-backed Iraqi forces and IS for the Iraqi city of Mosul which ended in 2017.
This amounts to an estimated fewer-than-40 civilian deaths per day, on average. Mosul had an estimated population of less than two million people when IS captured the city in 2014.
During the almost two years of the Ukraine war, the United Nations estimates that at least 10,000 civilians have been killed.
However, the UN's human rights monitoring mission has also cautioned that the actual figure may be significantly higher given the challenges and time required for verification.
And comparing casualty rates in different conflicts is difficult, in part because varying methodologies are used for estimating deaths.

edited for timg

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Dec 29, 2023

# ? Dec 29, 2023 18:29

ThisIsJohnWayne: Feb 23, 2007; Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!

This doesn't remind me of Hanoi in '72 as much as it does Warsawa '44

# ? Dec 29, 2023 20:22

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

ThisIsJohnWayne posted:

This doesn't remind me of Hanoi in '72 as much as it does Warsawa '44

Mauripol in 2022 got close. About 25k civilian deaths in 3 months, plus another ~6k Russian and ~1k Ukrainian military deaths.

psydude fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Dec 29, 2023

# ? Dec 29, 2023 20:43

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

psydude posted:

Mauripol in 2022 got close. About 25k civilian deaths in 3 months,

What�s your source on that number? It is way out of line with UN and NGO estimates.

UN puts Ukrainian civilian deaths around 10,000+ across the whole country and the whole war, with the caveat that this number is probably low by several thousand deaths based on inability to fully examine an active war zone.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/civilian-death-toll-ukraine-tops-10000-un-human-rights-office-2023-11-21/

Civilians in Mariupol had the relative benefit of ways to escape the city, a spread out population, friendly forces assisting with their escape and shelter, and to some extent simple inability of Russia to as thoroughly and round the clock strike with heavy weapons like 2,000 pound bombs with no risk of being shot down the way Israeli forces can.

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:12

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Weird how the IDF keeps making all these "mistakes". Between shooting at UN aid convoys on designated routes, dropping bigger bombs on a refugee camp "than intended", and murdering fleeing Israeli hostages, the pattern is, at best, one of gross incompetence or, at worst, a campaign of ethnic cleansing adroitly walking the line between inflicting the harm needed to perpetrate its goals and cynically keeping Western audiences assuaged as the killing progresses.

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:13

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Sudan should really be mentioned as well in this sort of conversation. According to the UN as of this week there's over 7 million displaced people, with hundreds of thousands just in the past few weeks.

Hard numbers of casualties do not exist, but anecdotes are of genocide. Which should not be surprising, as the architect of the genocide in Darfur leads the RSF, the force fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (who were themselves happily pro-genocide earlier this century).

Fighting in Eastern Congo is also shockingly brutal and poorly documented because of its remoteness. Millions of people have been displaced there as well. In both places "displaced" should be considered very bad: hostile fighters, unforgiving desert or jungle and an almost total lack of basic medicine means that large numbers will be dying of malnutrition and disease.

This isn't in any way meant to diminish what is happening in Gaza, which is indeed unique. I do think its good to remember other on-going conflicts as well.

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:17

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Sure and similarly Rohingya. But also the US isn�t arming perpetrators of those actions and defending them from criticism. In fact, the U.S. argues those events are indefensible.

Gaza is also unique in that all displacement is internal with no way out. IDF just says move, bombs area people moved to, and can eternally say �there was Hamas in there so it�s their fault.�

Now Netanyahu openly discussing ethnic cleansing by relocation as a possible end state for the current attacks on Gaza.

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:21

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

What�s your source on that number? It is way out of line with UN and NGO estimates.

UN puts Ukrainian civilian deaths around 10,000+ across the whole country and the whole war, with the caveat that this number is probably low by several thousand deaths based on inability to fully examine an active war zone.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/civilian-death-toll-ukraine-tops-10000-un-human-rights-office-2023-11-21/

Civilians in Mariupol had the relative benefit of ways to escape the city, a spread out population, friendly forces assisting with their escape and shelter, and to some extent simple inability of Russia to as thoroughly and round the clock strike with heavy weapons like 2,000 pound bombs with no risk of being shot down the way Israeli forces can.

Those are numbers as reported by Ukraine. The UN and other NGOs are citing the Palestinian health authority for their estimates, so there's congruency there in terms of depending upon the local jurisdiction. The WaPo article cites UNSAT, which has data on Syria and Iraq, but not Ukraine, as its source for ordnance estimates.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63536564

We don't need to turn this into a contest. I'm just pointing out that Israel finds itself in the company of Russia WRT their ability to inflict high civilian casualties.

psydude fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Dec 29, 2023

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:24

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

psydude posted:

Those are numbers as reported by Ukraine.

�

We don't need to turn this into a contest. I'm just pointing out that Israel finds itself in the company of Russia WRT their ability to inflict high civilian casualties.

I�m not trying to make it a competition. I am asking if you have a link to a source. If those are Ukraine�s governmental numbers, sure. Where can I read them from the direct source? That would help me keep up to date on what Ukraine�s central government claims are.

The BBC article is a year old and doesn�t name an agency or name. Just �Ukrainian officials think� which makes it hard to know who said that. A local constable? The office of the president?

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:33

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

This is the closest to a direct quote from the Ukrainian central government, but it's shrouded in "could be as much as" language, from February 2023.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-anniversary-war-crimes-b2288037.html

quote:

Speaking to The Independent, [chief war crimes] prosecutor Yuriy Belousov revealed his fears about the human cost on the civilian population.

�There could be 100,000 civilians killed across Ukraine, whose bodies will have to be found and identified once occupied territory is liberated,� Mr Belousov said. The current official death toll published by the UN this week puts the official death toll at 8,000.

...

He has been working with Ukrainian authorities to identify the victims. Of the more than 10,000 bodies found so far, more than 3,500 remain unidentified.

...

�In terms of missing persons, the problem is we really don�t know how people there are,� Mr Belousov said. There are currently 21,500 official missing people in Ukraine, a number expected to rise substantially.

I'm not sure if my inability to find a Ukrainian central government tally is just internet search algorithms, searching in English, or if Ukraine is not publicizing its own estimates on purpose for whatever reason.

E:
In october of 2023, Ukraine's minister of the interior put the number of missing persons at 26,000, with 15,000 of those being military members.
https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2023/10/05/novyna/suspilstvo/nazvana-kilkist-znyklyx-bezvisty-ukrayinskyx-vijskovyx

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Dec 29, 2023

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:41

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

I�m not trying to make it a competition. I am asking if you have a link to a source. If those are Ukraine�s governmental numbers, sure. Where can I read them from the direct source? That would help me keep up to date on what Ukraine�s central government claims are.

The BBC article is a year old and doesn�t name an agency or name. Just �Ukrainian officials think� which makes it hard to know who said that. A local constable? The office of the president?

The local government. The AP has a longer article on it here:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-erasing-mariupol-499dceae43ed77f2ebfe750ea99b9ad9

TBH it's probably not something that's going to be cleared up for years to come.

# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:43

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

U.S. announces emergency sale of 155mm artillery rounds to Israel.

https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/israel-155mm-artillery-ammunition

quote:

WASHINGTON, December 29, 2023 - The Secretary of State has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Israel of M107 155mm projectiles and related equipment for an estimated cost of $147.5 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

The Government of Israel has requested 155mm ancillaries (fuzes, primers, and charges) that will be added to previously implemented cases. This amendment will increase the total case value above notification thresholds and thus requires notification of the entire case. The original FMS cases, valued at $96.51 million, included four thousand seven hundred ninety-two (4,792) rounds of M107 155mm artillery ammunition (MDE); fiftytwo thousand two hundred twenty-nine (52,229) rounds of M795 155mm artillery ammunition (non-MDE); and thirty thousand (30,000) M4 propelling charges (non-MDE), along with publications; associated technical documentation; and logistics support services, which have subsequently been delivered. The new estimated total cost is $147.5 million.

The Secretary of State has determined and provided detailed justification to Congress that an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale to the Government of Israel of the above defense articles and services in the national security interests of the United States, thereby waiving the Congressional review requirements under Section 36(b) of the Arms Export Control Act, as amended.

The United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is vital to U.S. national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self defense capability. This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives.

Israel will use the enhanced capability as a deterrent to regional threats and to strengthen its homeland defense. Israel will have no difficulty absorbing this equipment into its armed forces.

The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region. It is incumbent on all countries to employ munitions consistent with international humanitarian law.

The 155mm artillery ammunition will be provided from U.S. Army stock. There are no offset agreements proposed in connection with this potential sale.

...

# ? Dec 29, 2023 22:30

Dance Officer: May 4, 2017; It would be awesome if we could dance!

Sure, stop the sale to Ukraine, sell to those poor Israeli's instead.

# ? Dec 30, 2023 08:21

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

https://x.com/assalrad/status/1740963111417573476?s=46&t=fppHBZSlD4AbSz5pJxjFMQ

It�s the NYT so not terribly surprising, but now we have examples contemporaneous with one another rather than weeks or months distant.

# ? Dec 30, 2023 16:31

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Israel's Minister of National Security has a proposal.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:14

Robert Facepalmer: Jan 10, 2019

14x4 words.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:22

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

I was going to ask the thread about that same thing.

From the start of this conflict it seemed like a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza was a possibility. It doesn't seem like that possibility has gotten less likely. Already most of the residents of Gaza have been displaced from their homes and neighbourhoods and are crowded in small regions. Israel has no clear plan on what comes next, either militarily or politically.

However, actually moving the Palestinians elsewhere would be very difficult. I think just about every nation opposes their expulsion (as well they should, it being explicitly contrary to international law) including the US. No other country would want to take the Gazans. Forcing large numbers of Palestinians into a neighbouring country would likely start an additional or expanded war.

So, can this expulsion happen? How? Where would they go? How would this be done politically?

# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:27

Midjack: Dec 24, 2007

It's dead on arrival because nobody is going to sign up to let them in.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:32

Stultus Maximus: Dec 21, 2009; USPOL May

Count Roland posted:

I was going to ask the thread about that same thing.

From the start of this conflict it seemed like a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza was a possibility. It doesn't seem like that possibility has gotten less likely. Already most of the residents of Gaza have been displaced from their homes and neighbourhoods and are crowded in small regions. Israel has no clear plan on what comes next, either militarily or politically.

However, actually moving the Palestinians elsewhere would be very difficult. I think just about every nation opposes their expulsion (as well they should, it being explicitly contrary to international law) including the US. No other country would want to take the Gazans. Forcing large numbers of Palestinians into a neighbouring country would likely start an additional or expanded war.

So, can this expulsion happen? How? Where would they go? How would this be done politically?

Cram them into West Bank?

# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:35

bad_fmr: Nov 28, 2007

mlmp08 posted:

Israel's Minister of National Security has a proposal.

The final solution of the Gaza palestinian question.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:58

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Stultus Maximus posted:

Cram them into West Bank?

I almost suggested that myself, but I don't think anyone in Israel would see that as a solution.

Gaza is a contiguous territory with a well-defined border. Israel had already withdrawn its forces from there.

The West Bank is a mess of zones and lines and regions. Israeli settlements, roads, walls and military outposts are everywhere. Indeed settlers are actively carving out the territory for themselves. The Palestinian Authority is sufficiently pro-Israel that it is tolerated and backed as a way to control the populace.

Shoving 2 million Gazans there would instantly melt-down the existing political/security order there. The PA would be gone overnight (side note, the PA is so useless it could fall apart or be overthrown at any moment). Unlike Gaza the complicated borders of the West Bank make the area a lot harder to blockade. Israel would be seen as being more responsible for the people there: their excuse (however thin) that suffering in Gaza is due to Hamas would no longer apply.

Maybe most importantly for the current hard-right Israeli government: it would make further settlement of the West Bank much more difficult, and would put at risk existing settlements in the area. Gaza would be presumably opened up to settlement in this case, but that trade doesn't sound very appealing.

*

My only other notion was to drive the Gazans into southern Lebanon. That triggers war with Hezbollah as a guarantee and a wide variety of other responses which are harder to predict.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:00

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Here's my New Year's dose of alarmism:

Midjack posted:

It's dead on arrival because nobody is going to sign up to let them in.

The "we're seeking partners in our ethnic cleansing" bit is just a smoke screen for a desire for violent expulsion. If the IDF is persuaded to keep shooting until civilians stampede across the fortified border to Egypt, there won't be much consent needed on Egypt's part. Top-level IDF leadership is old guard and might genuinely be reluctant, but the younger demographics have shifted far right, with even Israel's erstwhile liberals doing a "why do they hate our freedoms? we don't have a partner for peace!" song and dance.

It wouldn't be the first time the IDF massacred civilians for Lebensraum and, if Israel gets away with it in Gaza, we'll undoubtedly see a repeat in the West Bank before the decade's out. I know this sounds alarmist, but it doesn't help anyone to ignore that Israel has extremely dark options open to it and increasingly has both elites and the public inclined toward them.

Count Roland posted:

However, actually moving the Palestinians elsewhere would be very difficult. I think just about every nation opposes their expulsion (as well they should, it being explicitly contrary to international law) including the US. No other country would want to take the Gazans. Forcing large numbers of Palestinians into a neighbouring country would likely start an additional or expanded war.

So, can this expulsion happen? How? Where would they go? How would this be done politically?

It can and it will if the United States continues to limit itself to token protestations over civilian casualties while continuing to supply the IDF. It might scupper the official reconciliation Israel has been pursuing with the Gulf states for a decade, but none of the major players outside of Iran would be willing to commit resources to even proxy pushback. It would likely see the simmering conflict with Hezbollah boil over, but the people in power in Israel pushing expulsion would likely welcome this and Biden could be too cowardly/complicit to not stand behind Israel. Bibi is on a political precipice at home, with some of his opponents hewing away from the wartime unity—going mask off may be his best option for retaining power.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:12

PurpleXVI: Oct 30, 2011; Spewing insults, pissing off all your neighbors, betraying your allies, backing out of treaties and accords, and generally screwing over the global environment?
ALL PART OF MY BRILLIANT STRATEGY!

Cugel the Clever posted:

Bibi is on a political precipice at home, with some of his opponents hewing away from the wartime unity—going mask off may be his best option for retaining power.

It's somewhat tangential to the thread, but Bibi's political fate seems relevant, so:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-supreme-court-strikes-down-disputed-law-that-limited-court-oversight-2024-01-01/

quote:

JERUSALEM, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Israel's Supreme Court on Monday struck down a highly disputed law passed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government that rolled back some of the high court's power and sparked nationwide protests.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:18

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

I guess the question for me is what on earth makes anyone think the Israelis give the slightest gently caress about what happens to the Palestinians once they're forced out?

# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:19

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

Cugel the Clever posted:

Here's my New Year's dose of alarmism:

The "we're seeking partners in our ethnic cleansing" bit is just a smoke screen for a desire for violent expulsion. If the IDF is persuaded to keep shooting until civilians stampede across the fortified border to Egypt, there won't be much consent needed on Egypt's part. Top-level IDF leadership is old guard and might genuinely be reluctant, but the younger demographics have shifted far right, with even Israel's erstwhile liberals doing a "why do they hate our freedoms? we don't have a partner for peace!" song and dance.

It wouldn't be the first time the IDF massacred civilians for Lebensraum and, if Israel gets away with it in Gaza, we'll undoubtedly see a repeat in the West Bank before the decade's out. I know this sounds alarmist, but it doesn't help anyone to ignore that Israel has extremely dark options open to it and increasingly has both elites and the public inclined toward them.

It can and it will if the United States continues to limit itself to token protestations over civilian casualties while continuing to supply the IDF. It might scupper the official reconciliation Israel has been pursuing with the Gulf states for a decade, but none of the major players outside of Iran would be willing to commit resources to even proxy pushback. It would likely see the simmering conflict with Hezbollah boil over, but the people in power in Israel pushing expulsion would likely welcome this and Biden could be too cowardly/complicit to not stand behind Israel. Bibi is on a political precipice at home, with some of his opponents hewing away from the wartime unity—going mask off may be his best option for retaining power.

I mostly don't agree with this.

There would indeed be consent needed on Egypt's part. Egypt has walls and security forces at the Rafah border to prevent people from crossing into its territory. It has decades of experience in helping to blockade Gaza.

Biden would not stand behind Israel in this case, quite the opposite. The US and most states in the region want islamists like Hamas to be as far from political power as possible. 2 million people expelled from the Hamas-controlled enclave might be a tad ~radicalized~ by their experience. It would be highly destabilizing to Egypt specifically and the region generally. The US and the Gulf States would not want this at all. If for some reason the US turned a blind eye then Egypt would look to the likes of China or Russia for support.

If somehow Egypt was sufficiently bribed maybe it could set up a sort of neighbouring enclave on their side of the border, still adjacent to Israel. Call it a temporary humanitarian camp. Don't use the word refugee. Use the Israeli strategy of blockade to prevent the Gazans from integrating into Egyptian society. Make UNRWA responsible for for the camp, so the Egyptian state doesn't need to worry about feeding everyone. Hand-wave about their being a plan to re-integrate Palestinians into Gaza after Hamas is flushed out or something. This still seems far-fetched but may be possible.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:59

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Count Roland posted:

I mostly don't agree with this.

I hope you're right! I worry, though, that Israeli decision makers and its public might have a very different analysis of the costs and benefits and those in power today have significant incentives towards a radical approach.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 21:23

Dance Officer: May 4, 2017; It would be awesome if we could dance!

I really disagree that the US wouldn't support this, and neither that the US gives a gently caress about the stability in the region because there's a well established history of them not giving a gently caress that goes back to the iran-iraq war at the least.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:19

lightpole: Jun 4, 2004; I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:25

OctaMurk: Jun 21, 2013

Count Roland posted:

If somehow Egypt was sufficiently bribed maybe it could set up a sort of neighbouring enclave on their side of the border, still adjacent to Israel. Call it a temporary humanitarian camp. Don't use the word refugee. Use the Israeli strategy of blockade to prevent the Gazans from integrating into Egyptian society. Make UNRWA responsible for for the camp, so the Egyptian state doesn't need to worry about feeding everyone. Hand-wave about their being a plan to re-integrate Palestinians into Gaza after Hamas is flushed out or something. This still seems far-fetched but may be possible.

If adjacent to Israel, it would end up being a base for attacks on Israel, so I think this makes everything worse for literally everybody. And the Egyptians know that which is part of why I don't believe they will accept any bribe to make it happen, it could get them dragged into a war with Israel.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:53

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

lightpole posted:

I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences.

Lebanon is the country that has the biggest problems with its Palestinian refugee camps. They're entirely self-policed (the Lebanese Armed Forces rarely if ever goes into them) and there are frequent clashes between rival militant groups. It's a pretty big mess and understandably none of the surrounding countries want that.

Count Roland posted:

If somehow Egypt was sufficiently bribed maybe it could set up a sort of neighbouring enclave on their side of the border, still adjacent to Israel. Call it a temporary humanitarian camp. Don't use the word refugee. Use the Israeli strategy of blockade to prevent the Gazans from integrating into Egyptian society. Make UNRWA responsible for for the camp, so the Egyptian state doesn't need to worry about feeding everyone. Hand-wave about their being a plan to re-integrate Palestinians into Gaza after Hamas is flushed out or something. This still seems far-fetched but may be possible.

This is such a craven and awful thing that of course Sisi would probably do it. But North Sinai has had its own issues with Islamist insurgents going back well over a decade, and plunking down a bunch of "totally-not-refugees, bro, they're temporary guests" would absolutely give them a fresh new pool of people to recruit from.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:59

DelilahFlowers: Jan 10, 2020

https://twitter.com/poyopoppin/status/1741541568803123691?t=-rl7pAeOClwhQFmx2XZYEQ&s=19

Genocide and suffering was always the point

# ? Jan 1, 2024 23:01

Count Roland: Oct 6, 2013

lightpole posted:

I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences.

There's also the Lebanese Civil War kicked off largely due to armed Palestinians who had fled there following various wars in the region. The war was of course more complicated than this but refugee camps, especially in such a small country, really had a big effect.

For a more recent example look at the Syrian Civil war. You'd think that Arab states would have been lining up to help their fellow sunni muslims flee from Assad. Instead most went to Lebanon, Turkey and the West. Because again there's an islamist/rebellious element associated with the refugees and the autocrats that make up most of the Arab world want no part of such people-- they're already busy repressing their own trouble-makers, they don't need to import more of them.

Dance Officer posted:

I really disagree that the US wouldn't support this, and neither that the US gives a gently caress about the stability in the region because there's a well established history of them not giving a gently caress that goes back to the iran-iraq war at the least.

I think we're just going to agree to disagree on this, which is fine. I will ask though, if you think the US simply doesn't give a gently caress, why the effort spent by so many administrations on "Peace in the Middle East". Why was it only under Trump that the US recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights or put their embassy in Jerusalem. Why the efforts in the Abraham Accords, the peace deals between Israel and Arab states. It seems like the US has spent a lot of effort at least pretending to care, and I don't see why that wouldn't continue today.

On reflection, maybe I should clarify: when I say "stability" I basically mean "pro-american". The US is happy to knock over a place like Iraq in 2003 or look the other way when a friendly country like Saudi Arabia invades a neighbour, despite these actions being massively destabilizing. But by this same token the US doesn't want a "stable" (read: mostly friendly) country like Egypt to start buying their weapons from Russia instead of American companies.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 23:13

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 02:41

lightpole: Jun 4, 2004; I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

pantslesswithwolves posted:

Lebanon is the country that has the biggest problems with its Palestinian refugee camps. They're entirely self-policed (the Lebanese Armed Forces rarely if ever goes into them) and there are frequent clashes between rival militant groups. It's a pretty big mess and understandably none of the surrounding countries want that.

This is such a craven and awful thing that of course Sisi would probably do it. But North Sinai has had its own issues with Islamist insurgents going back well over a decade, and plunking down a bunch of "totally-not-refugees, bro, they're temporary guests" would absolutely give them a fresh new pool of people to recruit from.

Jordan's case included help from the UN or their neighbors, including cash payments, that then created inflation and destabilizing a nominally stable state. Even Isreal shouldn't have an interest due to the dangers of unstable neighbors.

# ? Jan 1, 2024 23:20

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > 2023 Hamas/Israeli War Thread: Pier today, gone tomorrow.

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