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FLIPADELPHIA posted:CA hosed the House by agreeing to let an independent commission ensure Republicans get maximum fair play in CA house seats, while every red state is doing everything in its power to do everything short of making the Democratic Party illegal (they actually did try that in FL if I recall lol) California did the right thing; the red states hosed the house
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Dec 29, 2023 21:06
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New York hosed the house by turning the map over to a random dude the judge picked It would help if there was a clear message from the federal level that gerrymandering is unacceptable, but Congress is unwilling to do it and the last time anyone asked SCOTUS they said "the gerrymanders that currently favor republicans are regrettably beyond our power to change"
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Dec 29, 2023 21:06
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VikingofRock posted:California did the right thing; the red states hosed the house Yes but unilateral disarmament doesn’t work. If all the blue states do “the right thing” and all the red states don’t then we just end up with an extremely red-skewed house. We need everyone to do the right thing, starting at the same time.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:12
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bird food bathtub posted:There is an unfortunately lovely devil's advocate position that has to be taken based on how miserable things are for a lot of people. It's not so much an issue for the elites who get in to positions like being a Senator or president, but for a lot of normal people retirement is not exactly a good situation anymore. Retirement plans these days are "Work until I drop dead of a heart attack so I can at least afford to keep eating". Pensions are gone, 401ks are a loving joke and so on. If we started absolutely forcing people to retire at a given age and giving them no other options than to rely on Social Security there's going to be a LOT of people in poverty and dead from lack of resources. There's just no realistic way in our current capitalist hellscape to retire and not end up penniless-then-dead for your average person on the street. Retirement homes are loving hideous abominations and if we mandate kicking people out of their jobs based on age without setting up something else to catch everyone kicked out of their jobs those retirement homes are gonna get bigger and worse. Isn't this overstating it quite a bit? For one thing, pensions started disappearing quite a while ago. In 1980, just 38% of Americans had pension plans, which dropped to 20% by 2008. Yet there's still plenty of retired people who aren't dying penniless on the streets. 401ks may be "a joke", but they work fine for a fair number of people, especially when you consider the considerable social safety nets available to many retired people. Retirement homes aren't places for poverty-stricken old people who can't afford rent anymore. They're care facilities specialized for elderly people and usually cost more than normal housing, in exchange for offering assistance and services that wouldn't be present in truly independent living.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:16
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haveblue posted:New York hosed the house by turning the map over to a random dude the judge picked Huh? I thought that the NY Redistricting Commission are the ones who are re-drawing the maps, not some individual person? I looked up an article and that's what it appears like the judge ruled as well: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-congress-redistricting-2024-election-9f738ecfa858e47261552cd9b18e7347
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Dec 29, 2023 21:25
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VikingofRock posted:California did the right thing; the red states hosed the house Partisan gerrymandering isn't illegal and voluntarily giving fascists control over the political apparatus isn't "the right thing".
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Dec 29, 2023 21:26
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Partisan gerrymandering isn't illegal and voluntarily giving fascists control over the political apparatus isn't "the right thing". Seriously, after the scotus ruling, democrats should be gerrymandering the poo poo out of every district they can. Stop playing a different game than they are.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:31
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I'd still call it "the right thing," even if we're in a prisoner's dilemma where the other side has clearly announced their intention to shank as early and often as possible. We should recognize that representative government is a generally good thing to aspire to, even if we have to acknowledge that current circumstances necessaritate playing the game. To once again echo an ongoing theme in the thread, we can yearn for the higher good, whole seeking the best option the current circumstances allow us.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:36
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Kalit posted:Huh? I thought that the NY Redistricting Commission are the ones who are re-drawing the maps, not some individual person? I looked up an article and that's what it appears like the judge ruled as well: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-congress-redistricting-2024-election-9f738ecfa858e47261552cd9b18e7347 Note the date of that article. This is what happened in 2022 quote:He is a postdoctoral fellow from Pittsburgh, a bartender turned political mapmaker. Now, Jonathan Cervas is suddenly New York’s most unforeseen power broker. Now the commission is redrawing the maps, after a higher court overruled the lower one. The lower court picked a special master because the commission deadlocked and failed to submit any maps by the statutory deadline
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Dec 29, 2023 21:43
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Anno posted:A bit of good news from down Ohio way. Been a very weird year here of feeling even the least bit positive of Ohio civics and politics. Good news, did he give a reason? I can't imagine it's "being a decent person"
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Dec 29, 2023 21:51
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Main Paineframe posted:Isn't this overstating it quite a bit? For one thing, pensions started disappearing quite a while ago. In 1980, just 38% of Americans had pension plans, which dropped to 20% by 2008. Yet there's still plenty of retired people who aren't dying penniless on the streets. 401ks may be "a joke", but they work fine for a fair number of people, especially when you consider the considerable social safety nets available to many retired people. Maybe I have the scale wrong and am overstating it, willing to cop to that one. I didn't look up stats on the topic as the numbers on it aren't what have stuck with me. For the upscale retirement homes too I guess it's not a bad place to be. That is again not what has stuck with me through the years because I never got called to those places. The human warehouses I was getting called to for people who can't afford that poo poo were capital-extraction engines fueled by the suffering of people, run by burned out nurse's aids that had way, way too god drat many patients, and piloted by sociopathic mother fuckers who didn't care about anything but making their numbers. As soon as the patients lost their job and their savings ran out they were stuffed in a bed and left to, more frequently than I enjoy remembering, literally rot. A mandatory retirement age would shove more people into that pit by removing the option of work from the lucky ones that still can work to keep themselves out of it. As Zachack said there is absolutely a social conversation to be had about people who are no longer able to take care of themselves or are starting to present a danger to others and it's going to be an ugly, complicated conversation. It will all be made worse by the presence of those retirement homes and the looming specter of being forced in to one as soon as someone can't fight against it. I freely admit this isn't a binary black/white thing, there are people who in their circumstances could retire and choose not to and would be just fine the whole way. There's also a lot of people in their circumstances who see what horrors await them and work hard to avoid them as long as possible.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:54
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haveblue posted:Note the date of that article. This is what happened in 2022 Ah, thanks. I thought you meant this was something that was currently happening. Jaxyon posted:Good news, did he give a reason? I can't imagine it's "being a decent person" DeWine has always been more against this stuff than most of the GOP. Or at least against the government getting involved with making a law against it. For example, he was speaking out against a transgender sports ban a couple of years ago too: https://apnews.com/article/oh-state-wire-ohio-government-and-politics-sports-education-f1d82a275904f27eba46e5894a1df5a2
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Dec 29, 2023 21:56
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Jaxyon posted:Good news, did he give a reason? I can't imagine it's "being a decent person" CNN posted:Signing the bill would “be saying that the state, the government” knows what’s better for youth than their parents, Gov. Mike DeWine said.
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Dec 29, 2023 21:56
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Kalit posted:
Whatever his motivation is, it doesn't really matter since the legislature can override his veto.
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Dec 29, 2023 22:32
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ummel posted:Seriously, after the scotus ruling, democrats should be gerrymandering the poo poo out of every district they can. Stop playing a different game than they are. California passed their redistricting ballot measure before the scotus ruling.
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Dec 30, 2023 00:01
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Are we pretending that Republicans went from decorum-loving, rules abiding statesmen to ruthless rules-lawyering liars at some point in the recent past? SCOTUS was fully weaponized in 2000 at the latest. 20 years later and the Democrats still haven't learned that being magnanimous and going out of their way to protect the interests of their political enemies isn't a good move. The Senate is already permanently gerrymandered against progressive values. Further enshrining regressive power in the House isn't ethical, it's malfeasance.
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Dec 30, 2023 00:43
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Complaining about California's redistricting thing is a little weird because afaik CAs representation has only gotten MORE Dem-dominated since then
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Dec 30, 2023 00:52
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Tarezax posted:Complaining about California's redistricting thing is a little weird because afaik CAs representation has only gotten MORE Dem-dominated since then California is currently 40D - 12R in the house. I’ve seen some hypothetical maps that could give the dems a 50-2 or even 51-1 lead there. That alone would be enough to swing the house back under Dem’s control and give them a decent margin, all else being equal.
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Dec 30, 2023 01:07
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Zapp Brannigan posted:Whatever his motivation is, it doesn't really matter since the legislature can override his veto. https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740819014803435935 https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740819019962495394 https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740815938696671627 i actually dont think they have the votes to overide. obviously i can be wrong but we will see.
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Dec 30, 2023 02:13
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NC recently became one of a few red states to pass a law that made it a requirement for certain websites to force people to provide age verification in order to access content. In response to this new law, PornHub is going to go dark in NC. https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1740770325787222231?s=20
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Dec 30, 2023 02:43
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ummel posted:Seriously, after the scotus ruling, democrats should be gerrymandering the poo poo out of every district they can. Stop playing a different game than they are. Illinois leads the nation in gerrymandering advantage, which is good.
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Dec 30, 2023 03:01
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FlamingLiberal posted:NC recently became one of a few red states to pass a law that made it a requirement for certain websites to force people to provide age verification in order to access content. In response to this new law, PornHub is going to go dark in NC. I have no idea what it would require but I think it would be vastly better for the internet and content creation if there was an even semi-reliable way of enforcing age gating. Because the ways in which you basically can't is just actively harmful all around. Seph posted:California is currently 40D - 12R in the house. I’ve seen some hypothetical maps that could give the dems a 50-2 or even 51-1 lead there. That alone would be enough to swing the house back under Dem’s control and give them a decent margin, all else being equal. Remember that gerrymandering isn't a magic I-win button. The more you gerrymander the more by necessity, that you need to carve out thinner and thinner margins of victory; and a major demographic shift or major swing in the base or any part of your coalition can and will result in a massive wave election that flips things to your opponent. There's also the fact that the Dem base is just vastly less enthused about gerrymandering to win, and Dems openly "changing the rules" especially in states with independent redistricting committees have every possibility of disillusioning the base. The people who vote democrat these days if they wanted a party that's willing to "cheat" to win, they would be voting Republican instead. It wouldn't be very productive to undo the independent commissions in Dem states, but to "restore sanity" to Republican gerrymandered dominated states is much more effective in gaining a net amount of seats.
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Dec 30, 2023 03:19
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Do we think Dewine is doing some 4D chess long game move to prepare and position himself for a less chuddy post Trump GOP? If so I would think moves like this would get lost in the noise of primary and election season.
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Dec 30, 2023 03:23
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Zwabu posted:Do we think Dewine is doing some 4D chess long game move to prepare and position himself for a less chuddy post Trump GOP? I think any moderate GOPer is not seeing a path forward right now for themselves in the party. Anyone who has high ambitions is trying to keep in the good graces of the far right. DeWine is just actually interested in competent governance.
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Dec 30, 2023 03:32
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Raenir Salazar posted:There's also the fact that the Dem base is just vastly less enthused about gerrymandering to win, and Dems openly "changing the rules" especially in states with independent redistricting committees have every possibility of disillusioning the base. The people who vote democrat these days if they wanted a party that's willing to "cheat" to win, they would be voting Republican instead. Nah bruh they want healthcare and abortions
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Dec 30, 2023 03:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740819014803435935 I certainly hope that is correct. Any way you slice it, it's bad for republicans, and that's a good thing.
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Dec 30, 2023 03:58
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Morrow posted:I think any moderate GOPer is not seeing a path forward right now for themselves in the party. Anyone who has high ambitions is trying to keep in the good graces of the far right. DeWine is just actually interested in competent governance. This plus i think a bunch of moderate gop types know this round of culture war is lost in the long term and is only gonna hurt them. Dewing and hogan want to be boring fiscal shitheads but want to keep everything running.
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Dec 30, 2023 04:00
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Dapper_Swindler posted:This plus i think a bunch of moderate gop types know this round of culture war is lost in the long term and is only gonna hurt them. This is exactly it. Whatever his personal feelings on the subject, Dewine knows drat well from very recent experience that the GOP got its asses handed to them in his own state on abortion, and by doing this he's desperately trying to save their chances at Brown's Senate seat (and staying red in the POTUS election).
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Dec 30, 2023 04:34
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Sarcastro posted:This is exactly it. Whatever his personal feelings on the subject, Dewine knows drat well from very recent experience that the GOP got its asses handed to them in his own state on abortion, and by doing this he's desperately trying to save their chances at Brown's Senate seat (and staying red in the POTUS election). https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740893698286915802 https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740899273607176690 in other good news.' the whole thread is worth a read.
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Dec 30, 2023 04:39
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Raenir Salazar posted:I have no idea what it would require but I think it would be vastly better for the internet and content creation if there was an even semi-reliable way of enforcing age gating. Because the ways in which you basically can't is just actively harmful all around. California has multiple deep wells of Democratic support to draw from for the gerrymander. Los Angeles County had over 4 million people vote in 2020 and the split was 71D-26R. That margin alone is going to be able to safely wipe out a bunch of chud districts without even touching the Bay Area or the tier 2 metro areas. I wouldn’t worry about a gerrymander backfiring there for the foreseeable future. Seph fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 04:48
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It's a great thread because everything could be a highlight, but this is my favorite: https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1740909419062604216 "The State Defendants' Promise to Only Enforce the Law in a Discriminatory Fashion Does Not Solve the Constitutional Problem" for non twitterati
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Dec 30, 2023 04:53
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Edit: removed for being too argumentative Hilarious to see Niki Haley try to have it both ways by saying the CW was indeed fought over slavery. Her reversal won't appease anyone. FLIPADELPHIA fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 05:38
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Slaughterhouse-Five banned so hard that all knowledge of it including the author’s name has been erased from all minds within Ohio
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Dec 30, 2023 06:29
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Seph posted:California has multiple deep wells of Democratic support to draw from for the gerrymander. Los Angeles County had over 4 million people vote in 2020 and the split was 71D-26R. I think if the long-term goal is to get rid of gerrymandering, paradoxically what the Democrats must do is exploit it as harshly as Republicans do. If Republicans are getting all these extra seats while Dems sit back and play fair, they'll block any attempts at reform at the federal level, and have an advantage in doing so because of the gerrymandered districts! Make unilateral disarmament seem like a good idea. If they can split up our cities we can split up their boonies. I often think about if John Kerry had pulled out Ohio in 2004 - he would have won the EC while losing the popular vote, and both parties probably would've agreed it was time to end the nonsense. Instead he just lost both and Republicans were happy to keep the status quo, with a big payoff just 12 years later. FLIPADELPHIA posted:Edit: removed for being too argumentative Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 15:23
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Seph posted:California has multiple deep wells of Democratic support to draw from for the gerrymander. Los Angeles County had over 4 million people vote in 2020 and the split was 71D-26R. IIRC all congressional districts need to be reasonably and practically as close to equally sized in population. So you can't just shave off say, a +5 from one district and hand it to another. A random plot of land in a +50 D district is not necessarily evenly distributed in population preferences; every district has parts which are more red or blue or purple then other parts; depending on the urban/suburban/rural divide and general demographics. A lot of Republican gerrymander attempts usually rely on some combination of packing and cracking, where you pack a lot of dems (urban areas) into a couple of ultra safe districts where their voting power is wasted with excess votes; and then other dem votes are diluted by overwhelming them with vast expanses of chudia. Its very complicated and difficult to do and results in those weirdo maps and Republicans pay big bucks to specialized consultants who use a lot of data and algorithms to derive those maps and get them as finely tuned as possible. Ultimately I don't think its very practical to suggest for California to undo its independent commission, I suspect its not even remotely on peoples radar even as a possible retaliation for Republican moves elsewhere. It feels to me intuitive that your average voter might be more motivated to vote against injustice (ending a gerrymander in a red state) when its clearly they're on the 'right side' and not being weighed done with the obvious counter argument of, "Why is it wrong for us to do it when Democrats do it too?" It muddies the issue and makes it harder politically to sell ending Republican gerrymanders elsewhere without clear examples of "Well actually Dems are more principled."
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Dec 30, 2023 15:40
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Yeah, I guess the problem with the "escalation" strategy I proposed is that getting to a point where Republicans say "truce" might be really hard to do. It's hard to beat bastards at bastard stuff. Maybe it would be better to be the "good example" and to try to make public opinion so strongly against it that Republicans have no choice. I dunno. I guess I'm going to have to throw up a "  " on this one.e: The good thing about advocating for ending gerrymandering is that there's not really any right-wing spin you can give to the idea that works as a defense of it. It's just clearly bullshit. The bad thing is that very few people actually understand or care about the issue. It's hard to get the public worked up about an issue if they don't understand what you're talking about. A lot of Americans probably couldn't even explain what a Congressional district is. Try to think back to what you knew about politics/government when you were like, 10 or 11. That's about where the average person is. e: Considering how heavy is the lift of getting people to vote for making their own reelections more difficult, the best chance for ending gerrymandering is probably a liberal SCOTUS that uses the 14th amendment to ban it. So, you know, it might be a while. Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 15:48
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The fixed borders for the Senate is way more of a problem than the House borders
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Dec 30, 2023 16:07
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Misunderstood posted:Yeah, I guess the problem with the "escalation" strategy I proposed is that getting to a point where Republicans say "truce" might be really hard to do. It's hard to beat bastards at bastard stuff. Maybe it would be better to be the "good example" and to try to make public opinion so strongly against it that Republicans have no choice. I think most voters understand the issue conceptually, and they even care about it - it's just low on the priority list because the impact is so much less visceral than other political issues. When people are worried about the economy, or gun control, or abortion rights, those are issues that can and do impact them directly in a meaningful and defined way. Gerrymandering is a step removed from the vast majority of Americans' lives, so while the majority of voters will agree that yes, it's cheating, and it sucks, and it needs to be ended - the immediacy for doing so isn't there. The other challenge is that because gerrymandering is a state-by-state issue in implementation, there are fewer talking points at the national level about how to resolve it.
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Dec 30, 2023 16:11
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ummel posted:Seriously, after the scotus ruling, democrats should be gerrymandering the poo poo out of every district they can. Stop playing a different game than they are. That’s what Illinois did Edit: beaten Oracle fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 16:17
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Misunderstood posted:e: The good thing about advocating for ending gerrymandering is that there's not really any right-wing spin you can give to the idea that works as a defense of it. It's just clearly bullshit. In the right wing viewpoint, it's not bullshit at all though. It's actively desirable, and its the alternative that is clearly bullshit. So the only spin you need is to convince people to approach the problem with a right wing viewpoint, which is something they put a lot of work into doing.
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Dec 30, 2023 16:31
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