|
Given no one found a weapons cache, and the Israelis were trying to frame some Brazilians as Hamas terrorists about to launch an op the other week, I'm inclined toward scepticism.
|
# ? Dec 15, 2023 23:32 |
|
|
# ? Jun 5, 2024 08:08 |
|
If someone plans to carry out an attack but doesn't manage to get ahold of the weapons to do it, that doesn't make them innocent, it just makes them incompetent. See: the idiots that wanted to kidnap the governor of Michigan. Anyway, this wasn't Israel talking about Brazilians. It was an investigation carried out by the Germans and Dutch. What's interesting is that the Danish case was apparently unrelated to it all, but I guess there may have been some cooperation in terms of executing the warrants. psydude fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Dec 16, 2023 |
# ? Dec 16, 2023 00:08 |
|
psydude posted:If someone plans to carry out an attack but doesn't manage to get ahold of the weapons to do it, that doesn't make them innocent, it just makes them incompetent. I think it's more that we're doubting the existence of these supposed "Hamas weapons in Europe" at all, considering that so far no one has managed to dig up the cache to prove it exists as anything other than a reason to arrest some potentially innocent people on Israel's say-so.
|
# ? Dec 16, 2023 00:12 |
|
PurpleXVI posted:I think it's more that we're doubting the existence of these supposed "Hamas weapons in Europe" at all, considering that so far no one has managed to dig up the cache to prove it exists as anything other than a reason to arrest some potentially innocent people on Israel's say-so. I'm not a lawyer, and German law is weird so I can't really comment in that regard. But under US and UK law, conspiracy to commit a crime is still a crime, even if you don't actually manage to get very far in the execution stage. Plenty of people have been prosecuted and convicted for trying to get their hands on explosives or weapons, even when they were chasing a false lead. Assuming German law is similar, the existence of the weapons cache is irrelevant. If they received instructions and began planning to use the supposed weapons cache to carry out an attack, that still constitutes conspiracy.
|
# ? Dec 16, 2023 00:18 |
|
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/25/israels-netanyahu-heckled-inside-parliament-by-families-of-hamas-captivesquote:Israel’s Netanyahu heckled inside parliament by families of Hamas captives
|
# ? Dec 25, 2023 18:24 |
|
https://twitter.com/Nimrod_Flash/status/1739683540655047140quote:Tal Mitnick, an 18-year-old from Tel-Aviv, just refused to enlist in the Israeli army to protest the war in Gaza and the occupation. Comments elaborate that the IDF apparently have chosen in other cases, and might in this case also choose, to demand his enlistment every time he gets out, and every time he refuses, slam him with another 30-day sentence. https://twitter.com/Nimrod_Flash/status/1739716974563786928 quote:Just want to make something clear - the 30 day sentence is the first period. After that he will be released, refuse once more, and be imprisoned again. We don’t know for how long this will continue.
|
# ? Dec 27, 2023 02:32 |
|
Not a terribly uplifting read, but worthwhile for a mix of history and context of past findings of IDF behavior and the rather unique and unenviable position of Gazans and Palestinians. https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/israel/64132/all-that-remains
|
# ? Dec 27, 2023 22:54 |
|
The rate of civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza remains unparalleled and unique. This is true in raw numbers, without making an adjustment for percentage of Gazans and size of Gaza. It is also progressing at an alarming pace, so when people and nations take a 1 year or 2 year retrospective, that is comparatively far late to need in contrast with other conflicts that took longer. Taking longer at least, while still terrible, allows civilians to flee. The pace combined with the immobility of the population combined with the populous being told to move to areas that are then bombed anyway are uniquely awful. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2023/israel-war-destruction-gaza-record-pace/ quote:The Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip has been unlike any other in the 21st century. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67764664 quote:
edited for timg mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Dec 29, 2023 |
# ? Dec 29, 2023 18:29 |
|
This doesn't remind me of Hanoi in '72 as much as it does Warsawa '44
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 20:22 |
|
ThisIsJohnWayne posted:This doesn't remind me of Hanoi in '72 as much as it does Warsawa '44 Mauripol in 2022 got close. About 25k civilian deaths in 3 months, plus another ~6k Russian and ~1k Ukrainian military deaths. psydude fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Dec 29, 2023 |
# ? Dec 29, 2023 20:43 |
|
psydude posted:Mauripol in 2022 got close. About 25k civilian deaths in 3 months, What’s your source on that number? It is way out of line with UN and NGO estimates. UN puts Ukrainian civilian deaths around 10,000+ across the whole country and the whole war, with the caveat that this number is probably low by several thousand deaths based on inability to fully examine an active war zone. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/civilian-death-toll-ukraine-tops-10000-un-human-rights-office-2023-11-21/ Civilians in Mariupol had the relative benefit of ways to escape the city, a spread out population, friendly forces assisting with their escape and shelter, and to some extent simple inability of Russia to as thoroughly and round the clock strike with heavy weapons like 2,000 pound bombs with no risk of being shot down the way Israeli forces can.
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:12 |
|
Weird how the IDF keeps making all these "mistakes". Between shooting at UN aid convoys on designated routes, dropping bigger bombs on a refugee camp "than intended", and murdering fleeing Israeli hostages, the pattern is, at best, one of gross incompetence or, at worst, a campaign of ethnic cleansing adroitly walking the line between inflicting the harm needed to perpetrate its goals and cynically keeping Western audiences assuaged as the killing progresses.
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:13 |
|
Sudan should really be mentioned as well in this sort of conversation. According to the UN as of this week there's over 7 million displaced people, with hundreds of thousands just in the past few weeks. Hard numbers of casualties do not exist, but anecdotes are of genocide. Which should not be surprising, as the architect of the genocide in Darfur leads the RSF, the force fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (who were themselves happily pro-genocide earlier this century). Fighting in Eastern Congo is also shockingly brutal and poorly documented because of its remoteness. Millions of people have been displaced there as well. In both places "displaced" should be considered very bad: hostile fighters, unforgiving desert or jungle and an almost total lack of basic medicine means that large numbers will be dying of malnutrition and disease. This isn't in any way meant to diminish what is happening in Gaza, which is indeed unique. I do think its good to remember other on-going conflicts as well.
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:17 |
|
Sure and similarly Rohingya. But also the US isn’t arming perpetrators of those actions and defending them from criticism. In fact, the U.S. argues those events are indefensible. Gaza is also unique in that all displacement is internal with no way out. IDF just says move, bombs area people moved to, and can eternally say “there was Hamas in there so it’s their fault.” Now Netanyahu openly discussing ethnic cleansing by relocation as a possible end state for the current attacks on Gaza.
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:21 |
|
mlmp08 posted:What’s your source on that number? It is way out of line with UN and NGO estimates. Those are numbers as reported by Ukraine. The UN and other NGOs are citing the Palestinian health authority for their estimates, so there's congruency there in terms of depending upon the local jurisdiction. The WaPo article cites UNSAT, which has data on Syria and Iraq, but not Ukraine, as its source for ordnance estimates. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63536564 We don't need to turn this into a contest. I'm just pointing out that Israel finds itself in the company of Russia WRT their ability to inflict high civilian casualties. psydude fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Dec 29, 2023 |
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:24 |
|
psydude posted:Those are numbers as reported by Ukraine. I’m not trying to make it a competition. I am asking if you have a link to a source. If those are Ukraine’s governmental numbers, sure. Where can I read them from the direct source? That would help me keep up to date on what Ukraine’s central government claims are. The BBC article is a year old and doesn’t name an agency or name. Just “Ukrainian officials think” which makes it hard to know who said that. A local constable? The office of the president?
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:33 |
|
This is the closest to a direct quote from the Ukrainian central government, but it's shrouded in "could be as much as" language, from February 2023. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-anniversary-war-crimes-b2288037.html quote:Speaking to The Independent, [chief war crimes] prosecutor Yuriy Belousov revealed his fears about the human cost on the civilian population. I'm not sure if my inability to find a Ukrainian central government tally is just internet search algorithms, searching in English, or if Ukraine is not publicizing its own estimates on purpose for whatever reason. E: In october of 2023, Ukraine's minister of the interior put the number of missing persons at 26,000, with 15,000 of those being military members. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2023/10/05/novyna/suspilstvo/nazvana-kilkist-znyklyx-bezvisty-ukrayinskyx-vijskovyx mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Dec 29, 2023 |
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:41 |
|
mlmp08 posted:I’m not trying to make it a competition. I am asking if you have a link to a source. If those are Ukraine’s governmental numbers, sure. Where can I read them from the direct source? That would help me keep up to date on what Ukraine’s central government claims are. The local government. The AP has a longer article on it here: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-erasing-mariupol-499dceae43ed77f2ebfe750ea99b9ad9 TBH it's probably not something that's going to be cleared up for years to come.
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 21:43 |
|
U.S. announces emergency sale of 155mm artillery rounds to Israel. https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/israel-155mm-artillery-ammunition quote:WASHINGTON, December 29, 2023 - The Secretary of State has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Israel of M107 155mm projectiles and related equipment for an estimated cost of $147.5 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.
|
# ? Dec 29, 2023 22:30 |
|
Sure, stop the sale to Ukraine, sell to those poor Israeli's instead.
|
# ? Dec 30, 2023 08:21 |
|
https://x.com/assalrad/status/1740963111417573476?s=46&t=fppHBZSlD4AbSz5pJxjFMQ It’s the NYT so not terribly surprising, but now we have examples contemporaneous with one another rather than weeks or months distant.
|
# ? Dec 30, 2023 16:31 |
|
Israel's Minister of National Security has a proposal.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:14 |
|
14x4 words.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:22 |
|
I was going to ask the thread about that same thing. From the start of this conflict it seemed like a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza was a possibility. It doesn't seem like that possibility has gotten less likely. Already most of the residents of Gaza have been displaced from their homes and neighbourhoods and are crowded in small regions. Israel has no clear plan on what comes next, either militarily or politically. However, actually moving the Palestinians elsewhere would be very difficult. I think just about every nation opposes their expulsion (as well they should, it being explicitly contrary to international law) including the US. No other country would want to take the Gazans. Forcing large numbers of Palestinians into a neighbouring country would likely start an additional or expanded war. So, can this expulsion happen? How? Where would they go? How would this be done politically?
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:27 |
|
It's dead on arrival because nobody is going to sign up to let them in.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:32 |
|
Count Roland posted:I was going to ask the thread about that same thing. Cram them into West Bank?
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:35 |
|
mlmp08 posted:Israel's Minister of National Security has a proposal. The final solution of the Gaza palestinian question.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 19:58 |
|
Stultus Maximus posted:Cram them into West Bank? I almost suggested that myself, but I don't think anyone in Israel would see that as a solution. Gaza is a contiguous territory with a well-defined border. Israel had already withdrawn its forces from there. The West Bank is a mess of zones and lines and regions. Israeli settlements, roads, walls and military outposts are everywhere. Indeed settlers are actively carving out the territory for themselves. The Palestinian Authority is sufficiently pro-Israel that it is tolerated and backed as a way to control the populace. Shoving 2 million Gazans there would instantly melt-down the existing political/security order there. The PA would be gone overnight (side note, the PA is so useless it could fall apart or be overthrown at any moment). Unlike Gaza the complicated borders of the West Bank make the area a lot harder to blockade. Israel would be seen as being more responsible for the people there: their excuse (however thin) that suffering in Gaza is due to Hamas would no longer apply. Maybe most importantly for the current hard-right Israeli government: it would make further settlement of the West Bank much more difficult, and would put at risk existing settlements in the area. Gaza would be presumably opened up to settlement in this case, but that trade doesn't sound very appealing. * My only other notion was to drive the Gazans into southern Lebanon. That triggers war with Hezbollah as a guarantee and a wide variety of other responses which are harder to predict.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:00 |
|
Here's my New Year's dose of alarmism:Midjack posted:It's dead on arrival because nobody is going to sign up to let them in. It wouldn't be the first time the IDF massacred civilians for Lebensraum and, if Israel gets away with it in Gaza, we'll undoubtedly see a repeat in the West Bank before the decade's out. I know this sounds alarmist, but it doesn't help anyone to ignore that Israel has extremely dark options open to it and increasingly has both elites and the public inclined toward them. Count Roland posted:However, actually moving the Palestinians elsewhere would be very difficult. I think just about every nation opposes their expulsion (as well they should, it being explicitly contrary to international law) including the US. No other country would want to take the Gazans. Forcing large numbers of Palestinians into a neighbouring country would likely start an additional or expanded war.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:12 |
|
Cugel the Clever posted:Bibi is on a political precipice at home, with some of his opponents hewing away from the wartime unity—going mask off may be his best option for retaining power. It's somewhat tangential to the thread, but Bibi's political fate seems relevant, so: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-supreme-court-strikes-down-disputed-law-that-limited-court-oversight-2024-01-01/ quote:JERUSALEM, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Israel's Supreme Court on Monday struck down a highly disputed law passed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government that rolled back some of the high court's power and sparked nationwide protests.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:18 |
I guess the question for me is what on earth makes anyone think the Israelis give the slightest gently caress about what happens to the Palestinians once they're forced out?
|
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:19 |
|
Cugel the Clever posted:Here's my New Year's dose of alarmism: I mostly don't agree with this. There would indeed be consent needed on Egypt's part. Egypt has walls and security forces at the Rafah border to prevent people from crossing into its territory. It has decades of experience in helping to blockade Gaza. Biden would not stand behind Israel in this case, quite the opposite. The US and most states in the region want islamists like Hamas to be as far from political power as possible. 2 million people expelled from the Hamas-controlled enclave might be a tad ~radicalized~ by their experience. It would be highly destabilizing to Egypt specifically and the region generally. The US and the Gulf States would not want this at all. If for some reason the US turned a blind eye then Egypt would look to the likes of China or Russia for support. If somehow Egypt was sufficiently bribed maybe it could set up a sort of neighbouring enclave on their side of the border, still adjacent to Israel. Call it a temporary humanitarian camp. Don't use the word refugee. Use the Israeli strategy of blockade to prevent the Gazans from integrating into Egyptian society. Make UNRWA responsible for for the camp, so the Egyptian state doesn't need to worry about feeding everyone. Hand-wave about their being a plan to re-integrate Palestinians into Gaza after Hamas is flushed out or something. This still seems far-fetched but may be possible.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 20:59 |
|
Count Roland posted:I mostly don't agree with this.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 21:23 |
|
I really disagree that the US wouldn't support this, and neither that the US gives a gently caress about the stability in the region because there's a well established history of them not giving a gently caress that goes back to the iran-iraq war at the least.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:19 |
|
I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:25 |
|
Count Roland posted:If somehow Egypt was sufficiently bribed maybe it could set up a sort of neighbouring enclave on their side of the border, still adjacent to Israel. Call it a temporary humanitarian camp. Don't use the word refugee. Use the Israeli strategy of blockade to prevent the Gazans from integrating into Egyptian society. Make UNRWA responsible for for the camp, so the Egyptian state doesn't need to worry about feeding everyone. Hand-wave about their being a plan to re-integrate Palestinians into Gaza after Hamas is flushed out or something. This still seems far-fetched but may be possible. If adjacent to Israel, it would end up being a base for attacks on Israel, so I think this makes everything worse for literally everybody. And the Egyptians know that which is part of why I don't believe they will accept any bribe to make it happen, it could get them dragged into a war with Israel.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:53 |
|
lightpole posted:I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences. Lebanon is the country that has the biggest problems with its Palestinian refugee camps. They're entirely self-policed (the Lebanese Armed Forces rarely if ever goes into them) and there are frequent clashes between rival militant groups. It's a pretty big mess and understandably none of the surrounding countries want that. Count Roland posted:
This is such a craven and awful thing that of course Sisi would probably do it. But North Sinai has had its own issues with Islamist insurgents going back well over a decade, and plunking down a bunch of "totally-not-refugees, bro, they're temporary guests" would absolutely give them a fresh new pool of people to recruit from.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 22:59 |
|
https://twitter.com/poyopoppin/status/1741541568803123691?t=-rl7pAeOClwhQFmx2XZYEQ&s=19 Genocide and suffering was always the point
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 23:01 |
|
lightpole posted:I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences. There's also the Lebanese Civil War kicked off largely due to armed Palestinians who had fled there following various wars in the region. The war was of course more complicated than this but refugee camps, especially in such a small country, really had a big effect. For a more recent example look at the Syrian Civil war. You'd think that Arab states would have been lining up to help their fellow sunni muslims flee from Assad. Instead most went to Lebanon, Turkey and the West. Because again there's an islamist/rebellious element associated with the refugees and the autocrats that make up most of the Arab world want no part of such people-- they're already busy repressing their own trouble-makers, they don't need to import more of them. Dance Officer posted:I really disagree that the US wouldn't support this, and neither that the US gives a gently caress about the stability in the region because there's a well established history of them not giving a gently caress that goes back to the iran-iraq war at the least. I think we're just going to agree to disagree on this, which is fine. I will ask though, if you think the US simply doesn't give a gently caress, why the effort spent by so many administrations on "Peace in the Middle East". Why was it only under Trump that the US recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights or put their embassy in Jerusalem. Why the efforts in the Abraham Accords, the peace deals between Israel and Arab states. It seems like the US has spent a lot of effort at least pretending to care, and I don't see why that wouldn't continue today. On reflection, maybe I should clarify: when I say "stability" I basically mean "pro-american". The US is happy to knock over a place like Iraq in 2003 or look the other way when a friendly country like Saudi Arabia invades a neighbour, despite these actions being massively destabilizing. But by this same token the US doesn't want a "stable" (read: mostly friendly) country like Egypt to start buying their weapons from Russia instead of American companies.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 23:13 |
|
|
# ? Jun 5, 2024 08:08 |
|
pantslesswithwolves posted:Lebanon is the country that has the biggest problems with its Palestinian refugee camps. They're entirely self-policed (the Lebanese Armed Forces rarely if ever goes into them) and there are frequent clashes between rival militant groups. It's a pretty big mess and understandably none of the surrounding countries want that. Jordan's case included help from the UN or their neighbors, including cash payments, that then created inflation and destabilizing a nominally stable state. Even Isreal shouldn't have an interest due to the dangers of unstable neighbors.
|
# ? Jan 1, 2024 23:20 |