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The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


title

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SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
I like this snapshot forecast, warmer on the northeast shores of Hudson Bay than central Texas.

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

skooma512 posted:

Sir, this is the climate change. You're looking at it right now.

Is this "climate change" in the room with us right now?



I thought not, economic activity will be unaffected.

Basic Poster
May 11, 2015

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

On Facebook
To clarify the sitch here locally, in 5 years it got down to -9 one night, and that was like a three day infrastructure calamity. This poo poo gonna go off.

Mad Wack
Mar 27, 2008

"The faster you use your cooldowns, the faster you can use them again"
we got to -15 in the boston area and my car battery exploded - it sucks!

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
the normalization of things has proceeded faster than imaginable or rather faster than would be imaginable had I not watched Covid happen

Oh it's just a 52F and raining day in mid January here heck that'll happen now and again

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators
whoops, it's a nothingburger now

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


quote:

Main story in the extended period remains highly anomalous low pressure, which is expected to bring multiple hazards to the local area from later Tuesday into Wednesday.

....

By the evening hours Tuesday, PWs surge to greater than 1.5" across the entire area with 1.7"+ possible across the SE. These values are highly anomalous for early January, with even the mean NAEFS values (~1.5") in excess of the 99.5% climatological percentile.

...

Sustained winds increase to 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-50+ mph during this period, especially along the coast. Winds speeds at both 1000 and 850 mb are again in excess of 99.5% climatological percentile according to NAEFS.

...

Finally, given very impressive dynamics and highly enlarged/cyclonically curved hodographs (leading to 0-1/0-3km SRH >300 m2/s2), there is at least a conditional potential for svr wx, including damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado, if enough sfc-based instability is realized across our SE localities. SPC`s day 4 outlook from yesterday`s cycle has a 15% svr risk just to our S

hmmm top 0.5% that's good right?

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Shifty Pony posted:

hmmm top 0.5% that's good right?

For the pwat? Eh for a field it isn't super rare. I'm assuming that is from an AFD. That tool they are referencing is this.

https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/naefs/

Here's the pwat offshore with the second storm. It is all climate a grid based. I've seen MAX values plenty of times in the forecasts. Not to say they are nothing, but it definitely is meant to grab your attention that poo poo is probably going to hit the fan.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

SirPablo posted:

I like this snapshot forecast, warmer on the northeast shores of Hudson Bay than central Texas.



the gulf waters look bizarre. wouldn't currents avoid that temperature gradient

edit or is that air temp. hell yeah it says two meters in the title

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Mid-30s in SoCal?

Oh, I'm sure they'll take *that* in stride.

1stGear
Jan 16, 2010

Here's to the new us.

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Mid-30s in SoCal?

Oh, I'm sure they'll take *that* in stride.

*The camera pans a snowy, frozen wasteland. Cars are lined bumper-to-bumper, cold and dark, filled with the ice-coated corpses of men, women, and children. Words appears on the screen: LOS ANGELES, 2024. TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT*

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002

winter loving sucks rear end now

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

Scarabrae posted:

winter loving sucks rear end now

Welcome to your 40s. We’re glad to have you join us

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Basic Poster posted:

PNW reporting in.
Lmao, over.



yeah it's called winter

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

I’m flying from Portland to Tucson Friday morning and knock on wood this was about the luckiest timing of a trip ever (watch me get grounded by ice on the tarmac or something)

Scrungus
Nov 21, 2022

i say swears online posted:

what happens to things like fruit and nut trees when they get no winter

they definitely won’t appreciate it if they come out of dormancy and bud right before a major freeze.

Space Jam
Jul 22, 2008

Scrungus posted:

they definitely won’t appreciate it if they come out of dormancy and bud right before a major freeze.

do you think they get embarrassed when that happens?

Rev. Bleech_
Oct 19, 2004

~OKAY, WE'LL DRINK TO OUR LEGS!~

1stGear posted:

*The camera pans a snowy, frozen wasteland. Cars are lined bumper-to-bumper, cold and dark, filled with the ice-coated corpses of men, women, and children. Words appears on the screen: LOS ANGELES, 2024. TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT*

a metal foot steps on a skull. We pan up. It is a T-800 wearing a North Face.

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...
wait so is PNW getting a hellstorm or not. im confused

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


probably not. will be chilly though

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


https://x.com/nwsseattle/status/1743392286426436053?s=46&t=NfFUqnrTGI_gdViBS3OzCg

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

err posted:

wait so is PNW getting a hellstorm or not. im confused

the newer model runs are making it look less likely

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"

err posted:

wait so is PNW getting a hellstorm or not. im confused

How people can read this thread with any regularity and not know that 10+ days out models are just for fun is beyond me

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

Rev. Bleech_ posted:

a metal foot steps on a skull. We pan up. It is a T-800 wearing a North Face.

DeRay-800


D-Rayt Hundred

i'm almost there

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

1stGear posted:

*The camera pans a snowy, frozen wasteland. Cars are lined bumper-to-bumper, cold and dark, filled with the ice-coated corpses of men, women, and children. Words appears on the screen: LOS ANGELES, 2024. TEMPERATURE: 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT*

Apparently 28F is the coldest temperature on record in LA and it happened in the late 40s.

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

err posted:

wait so is PNW getting a hellstorm or not. im confused

Here's if you take 100 different weather models, group them into similar patterns, and map the difference of each group to the average of all of them. Keep in mind that the average of all 100 of the models (bottom center map) is below normal temperatures.



There's a group (#3) that says temps will be close to the overall average. There's a group (#1, most models) that says it is going to be warmer than the overall average so not really that cool. Then two groups that say it'll be even colder (#2) or much colder (#4) than the overall average. All scenarios in play still. Just have to watch how it evolves.

Shifty Nipples
Apr 8, 2007

oh poo poo "very windy" monday night, am i gonna blow away :ohdear:

silicone thrills
Jan 9, 2008

I paint things

err posted:

wait so is PNW getting a hellstorm or not. im confused

It hailed just now in seattle. Also lightening storm. Does that count?

apatheticman
May 13, 2003

Wedge Regret
https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1743779009148641588

Have a tornado.

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
moleman voice

that's not that large

Tatsuta Age
Apr 21, 2005

so good at being in trouble


winter tornadoes just like we've always had

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
What season does Ft. Lauderdale normally get tornadoes in?

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Winter tornadoes aren’t that abnormal for FL

We get a lot of frontal systems in the winter that can sometimes have a lot of vorticity in them which can potentially cause tornadoes to develop

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Gunshow Poophole posted:

moleman voice

that's not that large

It really isn't. At all.

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
If it hits your house, it is massive.

apatheticman
May 13, 2003

Wedge Regret
The sparks were cool though.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Excuse me??? This is the weather thread. We only look at weather here

Except unironically because the climate change thread is way too depressing but it’s nice to have a place to hoot and holler about hurricanes and snowstorms.

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

FlamingLiberal posted:

Winter tornadoes aren’t that abnormal for FL

Leave!!

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dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Hey, winter tornadoes are usually put in the pros column for Florida!

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