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Hatebag posted:if the us had a bit more foresight they coulda used the 90s and 00s to isolate china but rich americans were making too much money by investing in china. so basically globalization has saved the world lol Nah, the CPC saw their hand and decided to turn the tables around. It was a deliberate move to sequester American capital into China by providing profits while imposing their own terms. It was a deliberate policy that had a couple of moments that could backfire but Deng and the CPC steered to success.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:11
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China handling Xinjiang as well as they did is really to their credit because, while there's not, and probably will never be, a smoking gun, it looks like the Brzezinski playbook was intended to tie China up for as long as the US needed before they could pivot back to Asia. Even the fact that most of those attacks were with knives seems to imply that the PRC was somehow able to stop arms from flowing through one of the most remote borders in the world, with US military bases right on the other side. And of course, now, China is just dunking on the US. 
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Jan 9, 2024 21:17
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Zodium posted:deng saved the world. deng xiaoping and henry kissinger, saviors of humanity
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Jan 9, 2024 21:19
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lol Calhoun talked to Mayo Pete on Sunday
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Jan 9, 2024 21:21
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Like, you know there were hopes ISIS would appear in Western China but instead, China Is Protecting Its Thin Corridor to the Afghan Heartland: The Wakhan Corridor is a fiercely contested imperial hangover.  The straight faced accusations that China is being Imperialist are loving hilarious too.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:21
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:Wasn't GW Bush's whole plan in summer 2001 to "pivot to china?" The "accidental" bombing of the Belgrade Chinese embassy in 1999, the emergency landing of a US naval intelligence plane on hainan after colliding with chinese interceptors, etc. The US had a plan even assuming the bombing was truly an accident, the shittiness of the National Geospacial-Intelligence Agency is a great example of how rotten the core of empire is. maintaining accurate maps is critical to controlling an imperial domain and projecting power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Geospatial-Intelligence_Agency but we've turned map making into an "intelligence agency" so that it can compete for budgets and suffers from the same ill effects as the rest of them
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Jan 9, 2024 21:22
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I've seen accounts, I want to say in one of the books on target selection, that all but admit it was intentional, but that the Chinese people killed were spies, and that the Chinese embassy was coordinating genocide with the Serbs through the intelligence station in the embassy. Allegedly this is how people in the US deep state think of the event, in any case.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:26
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I am doing the impressed pikachu face rn because I needed that zoom to realize Afghanistan bordered China
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Jan 9, 2024 21:33
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:Wasn't GW Bush's whole plan in summer 2001 to "pivot to china?" The "accidental" bombing of the Belgrade Chinese embassy in 1999, the emergency landing of a US naval intelligence plane on hainan after colliding with chinese interceptors, etc. The US had a plan Idk, seems that setting up a new Shah but in Iraq was a core part of the strategy and well
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Jan 9, 2024 21:40
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dead gay comedy forums posted:I am doing the impressed pikachu face rn because I needed that zoom to realize Afghanistan bordered China It's actually somewhat amusing, because Britain wanted to make sure Russia didn't border India, but the axis of US imperial rivalry is east-west instead of north-south, so China and Afghanistan being in contact was to their benefit. The US has also been trying to flip the Central Asian republics forever, but is losing ground to China and Russia (duh) because the US is no longer right there to protect/bribe them after withdrawing from Afghanistan. Unaligned third-way diplomacy makes no sense if the US isn't even there, and all US trade with them would have to pass through Russia or China anyway. Hilariously, the US sanctions on Russia, have led to a massive increase in trade through them between China and Russia, as well as exports from the Republics to Russia as the Republics buy sanctioned goods from Europe and the US. This cements that they are now permanently lost to either China or Russia, which again, the US has also turned into one camp. It's like they tried divide and rule and accidentally welded Central Asia, China and Russia together, so even the disputed borders and the issue of Mongolia is nbd. Incredible diplomacy, Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 21:42 on Jan 9, 2024 |
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Jan 9, 2024 21:40
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If US NGOs start a color revolution slava Taiwanini etc what then? The ROC can't really put up any real type of fight against the PRC, and the USN is backing down even against Houthis. Taiwan isn't self-sustaining and is an island with all its sea routes under PLAAF/PLAN control essentially. There are 100% screwed in a way even Ukraine or even Hamas isn't. The US can issue sanctions, put China can hit them right back, and Chinese have already been cashing out their US bonds and buying gold. They have been spent the better part of a decade preparing for that eventuality. Chinese products would come into the US via Mexico or Vietnam, but only if the Chinese would allow it and to be honest American business would take a crippling blow if there was massive nationalization. I think the Taiwan situation is mostly smoke, the US knows it can't do much against them and while the Chinese are relatively happy with the situation, their patience isn't infinite (and they made this clear). They would rather peaceful incorporation, but if push comes to shove, I think they would lay down the law and there just isn't much that the US could do about it.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:53
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Ardennes posted:If US NGOs start a color revolution slava Taiwanini etc what then? The ROC can't really put up any real type of fight against the PRC, and the USN is backing down even against Houthis. Taiwan isn't self-sustaining and is an island with all its sea routes under PLAAF/PLAN control essentially. There are 100% screwed in a way even Ukraine or even Hamas isn't. I agree with you, but to the career USN types probably the calculation is that US NGOs start a color revolution slava Taiwanini, The ROC can't really put up any real type of fight against the PRC, but the USN wins a glorious Midway / Manilla Bay 2.0 , and China's back is broken forever.
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Jan 9, 2024 21:57
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Frosted Flake posted:I agree with you, but to the career USN types probably the calculation is that US NGOs start a color revolution slava Taiwanini, The ROC can't really put up any real type of fight against the PRC, but the USN wins a glorious Midway / Manilla Bay 2.0 , and China's back is broken forever. I like those wargames where the USN subs are in the Taiwan strait and the only big deal is that they can't rearm the subs fast enough.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:02
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Frosted Flake posted:I've seen accounts, I want to say in one of the books on target selection, that all but admit it was intentional, but that the Chinese people killed were spies, and that the Chinese embassy was coordinating genocide with the Serbs through the intelligence station in the embassy. The weirdest thing I saw in China was in Xi'an in the subway of the central station (the one at the iconic Bell Tower) having these huge pictures up proudly displaying all the world leaders and famous people who had visited Xi'an, which included Clinton. I was like "err, you know he's the one who bombed your embassy right?".
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Jan 9, 2024 22:04
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Oh, Austin has cancer. That's why he's been laid for so long.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:06
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Ardennes posted:If US NGOs start a color revolution slava Taiwanini etc what then? The ROC can't really put up any real type of fight against the PRC, and the USN is backing down even against Houthis. Taiwan isn't self-sustaining and is an island with all its sea routes under PLAAF/PLAN control essentially. There are 100% screwed in a way even Ukraine or even Hamas isn't. Suppose Taiwan is ready to fight to the death -> they keep lobbing non-US missiles at the mainland for months while being bombed to rubble -> CPC provided prosperity is in doubt -> fall of Communism, Freedom, PizzaHut I can imagine a brain where this makes sense.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:09
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Seems to me that the ultimate strategic goal should not necessarily be to bring in the rebellious province but to stop the US from dominating it and using it as a wedge. If Taiwan stops claiming to be the real China and seeks a permanent settlement, as just another country in the region, then let them.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:10
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Speleothing posted:Seems to me that the ultimate strategic goal should not necessarily be to bring in the rebellious province but to stop the US from dominating it and using it as a wedge. For the Communist Party, reunification is a really big deal, they very much see Taiwan as a Chinese province with a puppet government ruling it. The question is if they are going for the long route or the short one. genericnick posted:Suppose Taiwan is ready to fight to the death -> they keep lobbing non-US missiles at the mainland for months while being bombed to rubble -> CPC provided prosperity is in doubt -> fall of Communism, Freedom, PizzaHut Yeah, I could see that being the plan especially since it doesn't really seem to the case that no one seems to be actually in control in DC at the moment. That said, in reality, if the Chinese moved and there was a blockade, beyond moving the ships around it can and waving their saber around, the US can't really do jack. They can't cut off Chinese trade, and the blockade itself is going to cause a bunch of supply issues they are going to want to be over. The PRC may just be fine with either solution at this point, because they know it is fait accompli in either case.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:21
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genericnick posted:Suppose Taiwan is ready to fight to the death -> they keep lobbing non-US missiles at the mainland for months while being bombed to rubble -> CPC provided prosperity is in doubt -> fall of Communism, Freedom, PizzaHut Yeah in the minds of advocates for escalation in Taiwan I think there are two modes of thought: 1. The mainland Chinese people yearn to be free and will overthrow the CPC as soon as their weakness is shown when the first amphibious assault fails because China can’t make any of quality. So once the fights starts, America just has to support Taiwan for a while til China collapses all of their own accord. 2. The mass murder of hundreds and of millions of civilians is not just a good thing, but will be seen by the globe as a good thing if it contains the Red Chinese menace. So America just needs a leader that’s a bad rear end enough dude to commit the greatest war crime in history at the very start of the conflict.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:35
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Frosted Flake posted:Like, you know there were hopes ISIS would appear in Western China but instead, China Is Protecting Its Thin Corridor to the Afghan Heartland: The Wakhan Corridor is a fiercely contested imperial hangover. It really is hilarious how the West just accuses all of its offical enemies of being imperialist because words don't mean anything. Russian imperialism in Ukraine, as if the relationship between Russia and Ukraine during the literal Russian Empire, let alone during the Soviet Union is anything like the relationship between the US and its literal imperial holidngs, like Guam or Puerto Rico. Christ I remember whe. Homg Kong was the cause celebre among peple saying China was taking over Hong Kong. Christ I'm pretty sure the usual gaggle of idiots have complained about noted imperial power Venezuela and their tensions with Guyana. How uselss Western Left discourse has been that it has been so deftly adopted by the forces of empire to use to justify itself. And stupid me for having fallen for it back when Syria started Frosted Flake posted:I've seen accounts, I want to say in one of the books on target selection, that all but admit it was intentional, but that the Chinese people killed were spies, and that the Chinese embassy was coordinating genocide with the Serbs through the intelligence station in the embassy. Wasn't it because they assumed bits from the F-117 were being passed off to China and they wanted to destroy them. But than aggain I doubt they'd ever really admit to that KomradeX has issued a correction as of 22:59 on Jan 9, 2024 |
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Jan 9, 2024 22:57
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Zodium posted:osama saved the world It would be funny if the rush to get a piece of an overgrown insurance scam derailed a bunch of other projects.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:10
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KomradeX posted:How uselss Western Left discourse has been that it has been so deftly adopted by the forces of empire to use to justify itself The controlled opposition is very useful, why do you think it is so carefully cultivated
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Jan 9, 2024 23:11
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Frosted Flake posted:Good point. I suppose I'm just curious about the Taiwanese side, because stopping that at all costs, pretty important. can't do the ukraine thing where they claim the language and ethnicity are distinct from that of the mainland because they're all mainland Mandarin speaking-Han that migrated to the island in the 40s and not mention there are still people around with living memory of having lived on the mainland and have relatives there still can't even plausibly do the indigeneity argument because those people make up less than 2% of the island population (and they were slaughtered by the KMT) it's an uphill battle for sure lol
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Jan 9, 2024 23:31
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yellowcar posted:can't do the ukraine thing where they claim the language and ethnicity are distinct from that of the mainland because they're all mainland Mandarin speaking-Han that migrated to the island in the 40s and not mention there are still people around with living memory of having lived on the mainland and have relatives there still Sure you can, what's stopping you
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Jan 9, 2024 23:36
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taiwan doesn't even have a convincing national mythology at least Galicia had a few centuries to cook up some
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Jan 9, 2024 23:38
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yellowcar posted:can't do the ukraine thing where they claim the language and ethnicity are distinct from that of the mainland because they're all mainland Mandarin speaking-Han that migrated to the island in the 40s and not mention there are still people around with living memory of having lived on the mainland and have relatives there still back in 2014 the thin end of the wedge driving western outrage over crimea was the supposed cultural genocide of crimean tatars, who make up less than 10% of the population of crimea and were subject to the racist language laws that ukraine keeps passing, while there are explicit protections for tatar as a minority state language in the russian federation nobody had ever heard of the crimean tatars before washington ordered them to start rending their garments and the exact same will happen with formosans
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Jan 9, 2024 23:53
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yellowcar posted:can't do the ukraine thing where they claim the language and ethnicity are distinct from that of the mainland because they're all mainland Mandarin speaking-Han that migrated to the island in the 40s and not mention there are still people around with living memory of having lived on the mainland and have relatives there still you absolutely can because “genocide” means as much or as little as it needs to any given moment, and pushing back on it is Genocide Denial. reminder that in Gaza, the official narrative is that there is exactly one genocidal party to the conflict, and it’s Hamas.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:07
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yellowcar posted:taiwan doesn't even have a convincing national mythology This is one of the single biggest hurdles the US is facing/will face with the "turn Taiwan into Ukraine" strategy. There's some attempts to cook up a national mythology but they are very much making up for lost time.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:17
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Remember that in Ukraine, this nationalist mythology had roots in Nazi-collaborators who were a fringe minority, but received refuge in the US and especially Canada where they were basically the sole voices in the West regarding Ukraine's supposed history. And then starting in the 80s the West started exporting this ideology via this reactionary diaspora to Ukraine itself. Or as Victoria Nuland put it, spent 5 billion USD "promoting democracy" in Ukraine from 1991 to 2013. And even after all that it took a fascist uprising for the ideology to really take over the state apparatus. To my knowledge Taiwan has no equivalent to that, except maybe the funding
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Jan 10, 2024 00:25
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I've seen a fair bit written or speeches about US vs China military wise, the importance of Taiwanese chips, strategic location, missile bases, etc. I've not seen a single attempt at how a cold war, limited hot war, blockade or anything else would impact the US or global economy. Would be interested if anyone has something.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:43
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Yeah the Taiwan identity had a convergence with the mainland identify during the rule of Chang family and only started diverging in the last 30 years. You see when the remains of the KMT army ran to Taiwan after 49, they were the minority even though they had guns. They didn't really had local mandate so the KMT embraced the Chinese national identity really hard. IIRC, Taiwan had around 20% children who spoke mandarin at home, and it increased to around 70-80% now. So that's a very fast adoptation rate for 80 years. That's higher than a lot of southern mainland provinces. If you look up Taiwanese tv news during the cross-strait crisis in the 90s, the news reporters sounded exactly like mainland reporters. Almost indistinguishable. Only in recent decades they intentionally developed a soft spoken accent. That's not to say the pro independent separatists don't argue for their own separate identity, but its pretty flimsy compared to western Ukraine. I still don't understand why some people in Ukraine like Germany so much. This doesn't really happen in Taiwan, I haven't come across anything that's comparable.
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Jan 10, 2024 01:09
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KomradeX posted:It really is hilarious how the West just accuses all of its offical enemies of being imperialist because words don't mean anything. Russian imperialism in Ukraine, as if the relationship between Russia and Ukraine during the literal Russian Empire, let alone during the Soviet Union is anything like the relationship between the US and its literal imperial holidngs, like Guam or Puerto Rico. Christ I remember whe. Homg Kong was the cause celebre among peple saying China was taking over Hong Kong. Christ I'm pretty sure the usual gaggle of idiots have complained about noted imperial power Venezuela and their tensions with Guyana. How uselss Western Left discourse has been that it has been so deftly adopted by the forces of empire to use to justify itself. And stupid me for having fallen for it back when Syria started And how China wanting to control Taiwan is somehow different than expecting to dictate the government structure of Cuba and punishing them to this day for poo poo from 60 years ago.
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Jan 10, 2024 01:14
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yellowcar posted:taiwan doesn't even have a convincing national mythology Really cause all they seem to do rest their lauels on Yaroslav the Jewslayer
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Jan 10, 2024 01:17
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stephenthinkpad posted:Yeah the Taiwan identity had a convergence with the mainland identify during the rule of Chang family and only started diverging in the last 30 years. Correct me if I'm wrong, but embracing the collaborators with Imperial Japan is still beyond the pale, as well as a redline for the PRC? I know we installed them to run South Korea after the war, for example, but even then, South Korea has never embraced collaboration, so far as I know. I imagine that would be even more fraught for Formosa?
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Jan 10, 2024 01:28
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skooma512 posted:And how China wanting to control Taiwan is somehow different than expecting to dictate the government structure of Cuba and punishing them to this day for poo poo from 60 years ago. Would this not be more akin to if Britain and France had intervened in the American Civil War, but too late to prevent anything but the seacoast isles falling to the Union?
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Jan 10, 2024 01:29
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thankfully (lol?) japan is still insistent in denying all their war crimes so that still prevents some kind of anti-china consensus from forming amongst the US-client states
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Jan 10, 2024 01:35
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yellowcar posted:and not mention there are still people around with living memory of having lived Ukraine showed that this part isn't that big of an obstacle.
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Jan 10, 2024 02:09
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Frosted Flake posted:Correct me if I'm wrong, but embracing the collaborators with Imperial Japan is still beyond the pale, as well as a redline for the PRC? I know we installed them to run South Korea after the war, for example, but even then, South Korea has never embraced collaboration, so far as I know. I imagine that would be even more fraught for Formosa? I am not very familiar with S Korean modern history, but from what I have heard, the right wing part of politics has a bit of connection to the former Japanese collaborators; whereas in Japan, the right wing dominates politics in the form of LDP, which has a lot of sons and grandsons from the imperial Japan government. In Taiwan the politics was controlled by KMT, "washenren" (out of province men) for a long time. And all the former collaborators didn't get close to the power center until the death of Chang's son. For a while in the 90s and 00s the animosity between Waishenren and Benshenren (local province men) were played up a lot during elections but this is no longer the focus, probably because the children of Waishenren realized they were different from the mainlanders and the Benshenren realized they still need to do business in mainland to make money. If your question is do separatists/DPP openly asking to become part of Japan, I don't think that's the worry. Because people who voice that thought would get backlash from KMT/waishenren before CPC officials throw down harsh words across the strait. I can't think of any subculture of Taiwanese youth wearing any Japanese empire memorabilia/tattoo either. There are alot of weaaboos, but that's common in every country.
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Jan 10, 2024 02:13
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yellowcar posted:thankfully (lol?) japan is still insistent in denying all their war crimes so that still prevents some kind of anti-china consensus from forming amongst the US-client states The reason Japan is so insistent on denying WW2 war crime is that MacArthur and the imperial US made a deal with the imperial Japanese elites and heavily rely on the sons and grandsons of these war crime committers to control Japan. This is the fundamental reason Japan can't walk close with the rest of East Asia. Why do you think the LDP prime minsters has to go to that war crime temple to make ceremonial tributes year after year? They have to symbolically get blood on their hands in order to get support from other fractions of LDP.
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Jan 10, 2024 02:21
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dead gay comedy forums posted:I am doing the impressed pikachu face rn because I needed that zoom to realize Afghanistan bordered China a no iraq 2 us empire that only went to afganistan and defeated the taliban somehow and sat between china and iran was probably a homerun sales pitch at the pentagon as part of the china pivot but then oops we decided to gently caress up all of west asia by destroying iraq
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