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I can’t wait to be talking about JJ McCarthy next year like we are talking about Bryce right now. The league is going to eat him up lol.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:17
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A Buffer Gay Dude posted:I can’t wait to be talking about JJ McCarthy next year like we are talking about Bryce right now. The league is going to eat him up lol. If JJ is starting week 1 for an NFL team next year something went terribly wrong for that franchise.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:20
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YOLOsubmarine posted:If it was so much harder to play QB in 2009 then surely all of the top QBs from that era would easily outperform their 2009 numbers right? Why wouldn’t the numbers go up? It’s easier to get completions and throw fewer ints, that’s got to translate into more yards, TDs, etc. No. Not at all. What? It's not a matter of debate; literally, completion percentages were lower and interception numbers were higher in 2009. It didn't translate to dramatically more TDs or yards. I mean, sort these by INT and completion % if you don't believe me (2023 & 2009), but… QB16 in INTs, 2009: Carson Palmer with 13 INTs, 2.8 INT% QB16 in INTs, 2023: Dak Prescott with 9 INTs, Jordan Love with a 1.9 INT% QB16 in completion %, 2009: Chad Henne with 60.8% QB16 in completion %, 2023: Justin Herbert with 65.1%
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Jan 9, 2024 22:25
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wandler20 posted:If JJ is starting week 1 for an NFL team next year something went terribly wrong for that franchise. 
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Jan 9, 2024 22:28
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Brock Purdy and Jordan Love had great seasons. https://x.com/PFF_Moo/status/1744310416170205496?s=20
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Jan 9, 2024 22:29
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wandler20 posted:Harris was a beast at Alabama, sure he sucks as a pro but that's not what we're talking about. Gibbs one year was incredible, 1370 yards, 7 yards per touch, 10 TDs. Alabama still gets great production from running the ball because Milroe sure didn't carry the team this year with his arm. Milroe actually starting to use his legs was a big reason the offense started functioning. He accounted for 12 of their rushing TDs and was their third leading rusher. Whatever you want to call him he was definitely not a game manager. Najee got to play RB for Bama teams that were some of the most prolific ever in terms of passing offense. He benefitted a ton from the fact that his offenses were putting up like 350 passing yards a game.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:30
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Of course it can get worse. Josh Rosen was actually worse. You could pick a guy so bad he never even sees the field like Christian Hackenberg. As bad as the odds are that a guy who has a bad season turns it around the odds of finding a franchise QB in the third round are even lower. Bryce is already paid for, taking another QB that has a really high chance of also being bad and then throwing them out behind a bad o line with the worst receivers in the league isn’t going to solve anything for them. The rush is that getting a starting caliber or whatever cut-off we want to draw for a SB winning capable QB is a complete dice roll in the draft. If the Panthers want to take the Rams approach and eventually trade for one after building up a team then sure. But if the guy you have clearly is a bust then you should cut bait and keep rolling the dice in the draft. The panthers under Tepper dont seem like theyre capable of doing what the Rams did so what else are you gonna wait around for? Another 1st OVA bust from the Bama hype machine?
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Jan 9, 2024 22:33
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wandler20 posted:Brock Purdy and Jordan Love had great seasons. I would love to see the Ravens’ if you filter out failed screens
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Jan 9, 2024 22:33
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A Buffer Gay Dude posted:I can’t wait to be talking about JJ McCarthy next year like we are talking about Bryce right now. The league is going to eat him up lol. JJ McCarthy is gonna be a 3rd rounder Him busting horribly wouldn't destroy a franchise for years. You get a third for hiring good minority coaches/execs that get hired away, and from comp picks Bryce Young doesn't look good but I really don't think you can fully evaluate a QB in one season where his best weapons were an injured DJ Chark and 33 year old Thielen
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Jan 9, 2024 22:34
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fsif posted:No. Not at all. What? It's not a matter of debate; literally, completion percentages were lower and interception numbers were higher in 2009. It didn't translate to dramatically more TDs or yards. Okay, so the eras are in fact comparable in some important respects but it’s good to be aware of the differences when comparing them. That sounds very different than “you cannot compare these things.” It’s not like a bad season in 2023 would actually be a good season in 2009 or whatever. They’re broadly comparable.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:36
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This seems like a rather unfulfilling conversation given that: - there's disagreement on the relative importance and value of specific stats; - there's a lack of consensus on how you compare certain stats when the seasons were 10+ years apart; - the conclusions are being presented without specifying the subset of data being considered (not a criticism of the posters fyi, it would often be pedantic to upload spreadsheets or source all referenced data, and we're just posters; that being said, it adds to the asymmetry of the discussion); - there's a lot of inherent bias to overcome, not in an NFCS fan vs Others sort of way (but sure that too), but in a "watching Bryce most weeks and developing an assessment over time" versus "knowing Bryce had it rough but analyzing stats from a less-defined initial position'; - and from my view, no matter how you slice the stats and categorize past QBs, the sample size is so small as to make any forecasting hugely unreliable. The list of QBs being debated is what, a dozen or so, from a time span of nearly two decades? I just don't see how any assessment of Bryce Young’s future as a Panther (or any QB with any team) can hinge upon what transpired in a different organization with different ownership, management, coaching, skill players, draft and salary cap assets, quality of S&C and scouting, etc. Debating the paths forward for the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young is quite an intriguing conversation. Personally, I don't see how the career trajectory of Matthew Stafford versus Sam Bradford versus Baker Mayfield will give us any practical insight into where Bryce & Co go from here.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:37
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wandler20 posted:If JJ is starting week 1 for an NFL team next year something went terribly wrong for that franchise. Probably also not picking him first overall. Like if Bryce had gone even 5 picks lower (e: and also not cost his team another high first round pick and WR1) I'm not sure any of us would be as critical as we are. Doltos posted:I'd argue that INTs should matter for every level just as much as any other QB measurable. It's kind of ridiculous to dismiss them but in the same vein demean a QB for not having a high passing average. That's fair but I want to point out a key difference wrt Y/A: I'm not bagging on Bryce for not having a high passing average, I'm bagging on him for having an incredibly low one. Going back through 2018 his is the lowest of all qualified QBs and the only others below 6 are Josh Rosen in 2018 (5.8), Foles in 2020 (5.9), and Dobbs this year (5.9).
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Jan 9, 2024 22:41
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Master Stur posted:The rush is that getting a starting caliber or whatever cut-off we want to draw for a SB winning capable QB is a complete dice roll in the draft. If the Panthers want to take the Rams approach and eventually trade for one after building up a team then sure. But if the guy you have clearly is a bust then you should cut bait and keep rolling the dice in the draft. The panthers under Tepper dont seem like theyre capable of doing what the Rams did so what else are you gonna wait around for? Another 1st OVA bust from the Bama hype machine? It’s not a complete dice roll unless you’re playing with weighted dice. Early picks are more likely to pan out than later ones. And there’s got to be a match between player and situation. The Panthers are a terrible landing spot for a rookie right now. Instead of ruining another rookie by shoving him into a roster with no talent they could actually try to get some decent WR talent and fix their o-line so that maybe whoever they pick next has a chance.
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Jan 9, 2024 22:43
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kalensc posted:This seems like a rather unfulfilling conversation given that: he stinks!
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Jan 9, 2024 22:45
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YOLOsubmarine posted:It’s not a complete dice roll unless you’re playing with weighted dice. Early picks are more likely to pan out than later ones. And there’s got to be a match between player and situation. The Panthers are a terrible landing spot for a rookie right now. Instead of ruining another rookie by shoving him into a roster with no talent they could actually try to get some decent WR talent and fix their o-line so that maybe whoever they pick next has a chance. I just dont really buy into this notion that picking earlier is all that critical in regards to how a QBs pans out here when we had a ton of discourse this season regarding Purdy and some bogus S2 test calling into question the talent evaluation process. I feel like the stronger correlation here is that 1st round QBs succeed more often than not is because every year there are a ton of QB needy teams who are drafting them in the 1st. Teams trading picks around to make sure they get their guy (and sometimes get fleeced) is just naturally putting a ton of QBs in the 1st, rather than a strong correlation to talent evaluation. Obviously we sometimes have cant-miss prospects that truly are cant-miss but those are exceedingly rare and its complete luck if your team is in a position to get one. Besides, the Panthers just did this and he is currently considered a bust. I feel somethings thats missed here when talking about other rookie seasons is the "flashes". Jordan Love started the season pretty well, fell off a bit, and then ended well. He put out enough games there to say he has something and belongs. Where are Bryce's "flashes"? What stretch of games this year showed he belonged? He spent most of them not even hitting 200yds passing. Yeah the Panthers can draft a stud WR maybe, maybe one so good he tricks the team into keeping Bryce around by being a YAC god. But if they can at all get a return pick for Bryce they should do it no question no hesitation imo. Use that pick to try and trade up or just restock with more BPA picks.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:00
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Master Stur posted:I just dont really buy into this notion that picking earlier is all that critical in regards to how a QBs pans out here when we had a ton of discourse this season regarding Purdy and some bogus S2 test calling into question the talent evaluation process. This past draft there were 3 QBs taken in the first out of 14 total. There are a number of mid and late round QBs taken every year that you never hear about because they suck and never amount to anything. Feel free to look over the draft history and see how often those 3rd and 4th round guys work out relatively. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb It’s really have to evaluate QBs and teams get it wrong constantly. That doesn’t mean that your odds aren’t better picking high vs low.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:18
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wandler20 posted:Brock Purdy and Jordan Love had great seasons. Just as I've been saying all season. Jordan Love is good.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:30
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Milroe actually starting to use his legs was a big reason the offense started functioning. He accounted for 12 of their rushing TDs and was their third leading rusher. Whatever you want to call him he was definitely not a game manager. Najee is incredible at one on one feats of strength and athleticism, which really gets featured in a powerhouse college team. He's absolutely terrible at the RB version of 'processing'(vision probably) so it's really hard for him to get in those good situations in the NFL He was also a surprisingly good receiver early on(not sure what happened there) Oh wait this is the QB thread? Najee is 1-1 on his career, maybe the Steelers should give him a look if Rudolph pumpkins on Sunday
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Jan 9, 2024 23:33
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I agree with Daltos that Bryce has at least flashed something. The issue at the moment isn't how good can he be? It's more can we actually get anything resembling competence in place to properly assess over a 17-game season? I think at the moment he's been harshly judged. You can't change play callers twice in 8 weeks, fire his QB coach, head coach, completely mishandle the preseason development pathway, then completely change the game plan for the last 4 or 5 weeks, while allowing your QB to be sacked over 60 times, with a number one receiver who's 33 and was never overly athletic or explosive comparatively and then say. Nah he's just bad, it's all on him and his size. He for sure was a contributing factor at times but this is the worst I've ever seen a rookie handled.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:35
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Bryce Young sucks Someone had to state the obvious
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Jan 9, 2024 23:37
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I'm pretty pessimistic about Bryce. Honestly, fair or not, the reason why people aren't too optimistic about Bryce Young is that he has the body of a Precious Moments figurine. Is there an identifyable quality or trait Bryce has that is considered elite? Does he see the process the field faster? Does he make good decisions? Does he have good situational awareness? I don't think he's ever going to succeed based on athletic talent, so that just leaves... does he have the mind of an nfl quarterback? Right now, no not to any great extent. His ceiling is extremely low and imo right now he's staring up at it from the basement. Doltos saying that Allen and Flacco sucked is correct, but they were bad in a fundamentally different way, and teams were willing to invest in them because they were both Specimens. What Carolina has to determine is: does Bryce have a chance to make a developmental leap like Allen despite not having those traits? Will he be developed properly with buffoon owner who has no football sense who will hire the first person who says he can rehabilitate this qb? So I can't blame people who want to cut the cord on this Point Guard QB.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:41
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Bryce Dung
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Jan 9, 2024 23:44
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If I were Bryce I would simply spend the offseason getting the limb lengthening surgery.
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Jan 9, 2024 23:45
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sorry but he passes the Green Line Test. he's an alpha
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Jan 9, 2024 23:47
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YOLOsubmarine posted:This past draft there were 3 QBs taken in the first out of 14 total. There are a number of mid and late round QBs taken every year that you never hear about because they suck and never amount to anything. How many of those latter rounds are intended to be starters/franchise and not just backups or taking fliers on a long shot though? I'm not wholly disagreeing that drafting earlier helps your odds as the trend does exist, but I am disagreeing that its such a strong correlation it should factor into the offseason decisions for the Panthers. IMO it just feels like a self-filling prophecy here - QB needy teams are gonna draft their guy with their first pick or trade up to do so, so naturally most QBs intended to be franchise qbs get drafted in the 1st, so the odds get skewed to say "most franchise qbs are first rounders". Some team is gonna talk themselves into three 1sts for Trey Lance or take a ZW and we're all sitting here confused why random QBs go from a 3rd round evaluation to a 1st. If I'm the Panthers and offered a flier pick for Bryce I just take it. Start Dalton next year or sign someone else. Go best WR possible in the 2nd round and take some QB in the 3rd. We're all here saying the 24 season is a punt for them anyways so why not roll the dice?
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Jan 9, 2024 23:52
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Master Stur posted:How many of those latter rounds are intended to be starters/franchise and not just backups or taking fliers on a long shot though? I'm not wholly disagreeing that drafting earlier helps your odds as the trend does exist, but I am disagreeing that its such a strong correlation it should factor into the offseason decisions for the Panthers. IMO it just feels like a self-filling prophecy here - QB needy teams are gonna draft their guy with their first pick or trade up to do so, so naturally most QBs intended to be franchise qbs get drafted in the 1st, so the odds get skewed to say "most franchise qbs are first rounders". Some team is gonna talk themselves into three 1sts for Trey Lance or take a ZW and we're all sitting here confused why random QBs go from a 3rd round evaluation to a 1st. Roll the dice with a 3rd rounder has much much much less a chance of succeeding than rolling the dice sigh young for one final time
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Jan 9, 2024 23:57
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IcePhoenix posted:Probably also not picking him first overall. I think you said picks instead of rounds
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Jan 10, 2024 00:06
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Doltos posted:Considering you threw out one WCO comp because it was Kirk Cousins and then compared Bryce to non WCO QBs means that you aren't interested in arguing you just want to fit a narrative. I think the thread has been ridiculous about the claims on Bryce. It's not forced optimism, it's just pointing out the pessimism. I threw out Kirk bc he literally didn't play more than 3 games his rookie year. Lmao you're being ridiculous here, just say you didn't watch him this year but the one highlight reel you glanced at makes you think he could still turn it around based on how garbage the team was around him. Don't reach for stats when there's nothing to support those claims. Doltos posted:I would also argue QBs do better later in the season because tons of teams are hurt or out of the playoffs. I hate to keep bringing up the same player but the 5 TD game that supposedly saved Stafford's rookie season was against a 1-9 Browns team. Josh Allen's 5 TD game was against a 7-8 Dolphins team that was eliminated and a 27th ranked defense. I mean Bryce played in the NFC south and faced a lot of bad teams this year including a reeling Jags team with everyone hurt and yet he still couldn't manage to have those sorts of incredible flashes. BlindSite posted:I agree with Daltos that Bryce has at least flashed something. Genuinely what did he flash and when? I'm assuming this is either the Detroit or GB game both of which they were getting blown out for at least half of those games and neither of which they won? Master Stur posted:How many of those latter rounds are intended to be starters/franchise and not just backups or taking fliers on a long shot though? I'm not wholly disagreeing that drafting earlier helps your odds as the trend does exist, but I am disagreeing that its such a strong correlation it should factor into the offseason decisions for the Panthers. IMO it just feels like a self-filling prophecy here - QB needy teams are gonna draft their guy with their first pick or trade up to do so, so naturally most QBs intended to be franchise qbs get drafted in the 1st, so the odds get skewed to say "most franchise qbs are first rounders". Some team is gonna talk themselves into three 1sts for Trey Lance or take a ZW and we're all sitting here confused why random QBs go from a 3rd round evaluation to a 1st. Ooooo are you arguing there's some self fulfilling prophecies to QBs in the draft ie that 1st round QBs hit more frequently bc they frequently get more investment? That's an interesting thought.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:07
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CharlestheHammer posted:Roll the dice with a 3rd rounder has much much much less a chance of succeeding than rolling the dice sigh young for one final time 1% chance on the 3rd rounder > 0% chance Bryce puts on 40lbs and grows another 4". Browning was a UDFA and played lights out compared to Bryce. So many backup or off-the-couch QBs came in this year and played better than Bryce including Dalton on his own team so I just can't really get on board with the notion that the Panthers are better off with him next year. Unless they want to tank again for a proper 1st rd pick.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:13
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Relentlessboredomm posted:I threw out Kirk bc he literally didn't play more than 3 games his rookie year. Lmao you're being ridiculous here, just say you didn't watch him this year but the one highlight reel you glanced at makes you think he could still turn it around based on how garbage the team was around him. Don't reach for stats when there's nothing to support those claims. I added Kirk's first 3 seasons together but fine, let's throw out Kirk. I didn't sit down and watch every single Bryce Young game but I think it's perfectly fine to look at a guy delivering NFL throws and saying hey, that guy can deliver NFL throws. The stats are similar and also bolster the original point that there's more than 5 QBs that had bad seasons to start off and are now starters. You're trying to argue for these bad seasons like they're somehow good which is just mind boggling. I think you just want to win an argument.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:17
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Relentlessboredomm posted:Ooooo are you arguing there's some self fulfilling prophecies to QBs in the draft ie that 1st round QBs hit more frequently bc they frequently get more investment? That's an interesting thought. There’s certainly some truth to that but by the same token those highly drafted QBs are going to the worst teams in the league which makes it much harder to succeed. I doubt Lamar would have done as well if he’d been taken by the Bears. Brock Purdy has certainly benefitted from landing in an amazing situation and having low expectations. Jordan Love got to sit for 3 years and has certainly benefitted from an organization that has been pretty good for like 40 years now.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:18
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Relentlessboredomm posted:Ooooo are you arguing there's some self fulfilling prophecies to QBs in the draft ie that 1st round QBs hit more frequently bc they frequently get more investment? That's an interesting thought. You could say that though I don't think I'm intelligent or eloquent enough to go beyond surface level analysis here. I just think attempting to get a franchise qb is an outlier action when it comes to the draft and so long as its the most critical position in the sport then their draft position will always heavily skew to the 1st rather than what would be natural by BPA. With hindsight we could easily say Purdy goes in the 1st. Likewise I don't think Zach Wilson really shouldve graded out to be 1st rd caliber based off one good covid season at byu, but he did anyways because the Jets needed a franchise qb and because they were going to pick him in the 1st he has to be a 1st rd grade, yeah? It's partially a side effect of the positional importance and fomo just as much as anything else until we have something better than total crapshoot talent evaluation.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:26
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Doltos posted:I added Kirk's first 3 seasons together but fine, let's throw out Kirk. this isn't baseball, players aren't rookies until they hit some arbitrary threshold of "number of games played" in the nfl
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Jan 10, 2024 00:28
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Master Stur posted:You could say that though I don't think I'm intelligent or eloquent enough to go beyond surface level analysis here. I just think attempting to get a franchise qb is an outlier action when it comes to the draft and so long as its the most critical position in the sport then their draft position will always heavily skew to the 1st rather than what would be natural by BPA. I agree with you because when I did my regression model the only significance to WR production was round drafted. It's just simply more playing time = more stats and more stats = more forgiveness for sucking.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:28
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YOLOsubmarine posted:There’s certainly some truth to that but by the same token those highly drafted QBs are going to the worst teams in the league which makes it much harder to succeed. I doubt Lamar would have done as well if he’d been taken by the Bears. Brock Purdy has certainly benefitted from landing in an amazing situation and having low expectations. Jordan Love got to sit for 3 years and has certainly benefitted from an organization that has been pretty good for like 40 years now. So maybe drafting a midget QB, from the school that has superior talent everywhere, as the number 1 pick was insanely stupid and has already ruined any chance the guy had of being good (which was already low because he’s a midget) by virtue of that being a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bryce is already cooked. Anyway this is all ignoring the pick right behind him elevating a last place team to the division title.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:43
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Master Stur posted:1% chance on the 3rd rounder > 0% chance Bryce puts on 40lbs and grows another 4". Browning was a UDFA and played lights out compared to Bryce. So many backup or off-the-couch QBs came in this year and played better than Bryce including Dalton on his own team so I just can't really get on board with the notion that the Panthers are better off with him next year. Unless they want to tank again for a proper 1st rd pick. I means he’s going to be bad regardless because the panthers are not a well constructed team. They are a bad team. It’s not a coincidence that players like Purdy and Love are doing great because the situation they were in a really good. Even stroud has a pretty well constructed offense that has helped him along I know it is hard to admit but coaching does matter
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Jan 10, 2024 00:47
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A Buffer Gay Dude posted:So maybe drafting a midget QB, from the school that has superior talent everywhere, as the number 1 pick was insanely stupid and has already ruined any chance the guy had of being good (which was already low because he’s a midget) by virtue of that being a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bryce is already cooked. I loved Stroud coming out and wasn’t as high on Bryce, mostly due to concerns about his creativity and elusiveness not translating as well to the NFL. And also that he’d get his tiny body destroyed. But the Panthers made their bed and they’ve really got no better option than to lie in it for another year. I don’t think it’ll get better, but I don’t think wasting a pick on a long shot QB this year is going to make them any better either and they’ve got a lot of other holes to fill. Stroud has been amazing but I do think Bobby Slowik is a better OC than old rear end Frank Reich. It’s a scheme driven league and Reich’s poo poo is just old and busted, like the panthers WRs.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:49
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CharlestheHammer posted:I means he’s going to be bad regardless because the panthers are not a well constructed team. They are a bad team. I never said coaching doesn't matter though. Reich's old rear end busted scheme got production out of an ancient Rivers and Dalton - the only QB who performed terribly under him is Bryce. We can tell when an otherwise decent to great QB is making a scheme work and we can tell when a scheme is elevating an otherwise middling qb. We have Fields occasionally showing great games or flashes on a team most folk consider to be horribly coached. Scheme isn't preventing Bryce from hitting 200yds passing, if it was then why didn't we see anything after firing Reich?
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Jan 10, 2024 00:56
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Incidentally, one of the greatest tragedies of this season is Anthony Richardson not being able to get through a full season to see what he had in him, while this little Ken doll makes it through the whole season playing like crap. With both Howell and Young it's like you give them credit for being tough enough to get the poo poo sacked out of them not but not for actual NFL quarterback play.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:56
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That’s a little revisionist history - the Texans WR core was seen as bad if not worse than the Panthers’ going into the year. No one even knew who Nico Collins really was. Stroud elevated that group (And had immediate rapport with Tank Dell). What y’all are saying about Bryce Young? About how the Panthers were setting him up to fail? The same exact things were said about the Texans and Stroud.
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Jan 10, 2024 00:59
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